Protests Reveal Little Threat of COVID-19 in Outside Air: Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Thursday, June 11, 2020

As I discussed in a previous blog, there is little evidence of transmission of COVID-19 in outside air, with a substantial and growing literature documenting the lack of risk for virtually any activity in the outside air.

Empty parks in Seattle
But now, there is even more compelling and powerful evidence of the lack of COVID threat in outside air, even in a worse-case situation:  the lack of surge in COVID cases following the large protests in Seattle and other cities.

The protests represent the opposite of responsible social distancing, with large crowds of hundreds or even thousands packed in close together.  

People are screaming, chanting and singing:  activities that are optimal for spraying virus-laden droplets into the air.  Many, but not all, of the protesters are wearing masks, with most of them using the less effective cloth ones.  And tear gas causes people to cough and expel large quantities of mucus and droplets.  If you want to spread a dangerous virus, you would think the protests are the perfect way to do it!


So if COVID-19 transmission was in ANY way effective outside, one would expect a major jump in COVID-19 cases to occur.  

The average period from exposure to symptoms is around 5 days and the protests started about two weeks ago–so there should be a major uptick of hospitalizations and active infections now if outdoor transmission is significant.

Has this occurred?  We now know the answer:  there has NOT been an upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and thus transmission outside has to be minimal to non-existent.

Let’s look at the numbers!

King County, the center of the protests, has shown no peak in hospitalizations.



The percent positive tests at the University of Washington Virology Lab is shown below.  If the virus was surging the percentage would go up quickly.  Instead, it went down over the period with no rapid increase during the past week (some problem occurred on May 30th).

What about other cities with protests?   No spike in the percentage of positive tests at any of them (see below)
Courtesy of Willis Eschenbach
It is important to note that at this point we would expect a slow rise in the number of cases as restrictions are slowly lifted.    This has nothing to do with the protests.  Such a slow rise is found in epidemiological models (see below).   Most people have not been exposed to the virus, but prudent social distancing and wearing of masks can keep the situation in check.  Hospitals are not being overwhelmed.  In fact, they are quite empty.

The bottom line of all this?  With all the lack of social distancing and maximal ejection of droplets from people (from chanting, singing, screaming and dealing with pepper spray and tear gas), COVID-19 has not surged.

There is one obvious explanation for this lack of COVID uptick:  viral transmission is very minimal in the outside air where there is huge ventilation, where UV radiation is present during the day, and where humidities and temperatures are generally unfavorable.

The protests have facilitated a huge public health experiment and we now know that COVID-19 basically does not spread outside.  A result consistent with the research cited in my earlier blog.

But that leaves a major question:  why is the City of Seattle still putting up major roadblocks for the use of their parks?  Why are the parking lots of most parks closed?  Why are tennis court nets taken down?  Why are people being kicked out at  8 PM, being denied sunset walks at our glorious waterfront and view parks?  Why is picnicking against the law?  Why is the Seattle Park’s and Recreation Department ignoring scientific evidence in continuing the closures?

Please Mayor Durkan, completely open the parks.  If you can let protestors roam the city in the thousands, even creating a new country on Cap Hill, can’t you let the rest of us enjoy the parks, have a picnic with our families and friends, and allow the elderly and mobility limited a chance to enjoy the parks like the rest of us?  There is no place that allows better social distancing, healthful exercise and mental rejuvenation than our parks.  

At Seattle Parks picnicking or stopping to enjoy the view is forbidden to normal folks.

 But park personnel don’t have to follow the rules and enjoy leisurely lunches with a world class view.

Some people might conclude the park was closed.  In Seattle, you have to read the fine print.

133 thoughts on “Protests Reveal Little Threat of COVID-19 in Outside Air: Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?

  1. That’s easy, to maintain the illusion of risk, while ‘experts predict a resurgence’ in September, just in time to make fraud-rife mail-in ballots mandatory. How else can the demented idiot take the WH?

    Aa rare glimpse of common sense…
    https://www.mrctv.org/blog/judge-rules-against-stay-home-order-people-are-not-being-governed-they-are-being-ruled?fbclid=IwAR11vIsBkWQDMjXrJunQ-vf1-tEFL433OQXk7V9CzQasj7crVZOIzXQvk_w
    Judge Rules Against Stay At Home Order: ‘People Are Not Being Governed, They Are Being Ruled’
    “A  judge ruling against Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s stay-at-home order broke down point-by-point why he believes the order has devolved into “insanity.” In a ruling late last week, Clay County Judge Michael McHaney.. voiced his opinion.. “Since the inception of this insanity, the following regulations, rules or consequences have occurred: I won’t get COVID if I get an abortion, but I will get COVID if I get a colonoscopy. Selling pot is essential, but selling goods and services at a family owned business is not. Pot wasn’t even legal and pot dispensaries didn’t even exist in this state until five months ago and, in that five months, they have become essential, but a family-owned business in existence for five generations is not.. A family of six can pile in their car and drive to Carlyle Lake without contracting COVID but, if they all get in the same boat, they will. We are told that kids rarely contract the virus and sunlight kills it, but summer youth programs, sports programs are cancelled. Four people can drive to the golf course and not get COVID but, if they play in a foursome, they will. If I go to Walmart, I won’t get COVID but, if I go to church, I will. Murderers are released from custody while small business owners are threatened with arrest if they have the audacity to attempt to feed their families. These are just a few of examples of rules, regulations and consequences that are arbitrary, capricious, and completely devoid of anything even remotely approaching common sense.. [P]eople are not being governed, they are being ruled. Make no mistake, these executive orders are not laws. They are royal decrees.. The last time a monarch tried to rule Americans, a shot was fired that was heard around the world. That day led to the birth of a nation consensually governed based upon a document which ensures that on this day in this, any American courtroom tyrannical despotism will always lose and liberty, freedom and the constitution will always win.”

  2. That is because Seattle is a far left city, run by incompetent people. The Governor is also a far left thinker, that is why they are a blot to the state right now.

    • Consider the concept of “post-modernism” that is the primary basis for what passes for education in a lot of secondary schools and almost all colleges/universities…I got this definition from a glossary at PBS.ORG. This is a great description of the far left thinking that is evident in our society and government today.

      A general and wide-ranging term which is applied to literature, art, philosophy, architecture, fiction, and cultural and literary criticism, among others. Postmodernism is largely a reaction to the assumed certainty of scientific, or objective, efforts to explain reality. In essence, it stems from a recognition that reality is not simply mirrored in human understanding of it, but rather, is constructed as the mind tries to understand its own particular and personal reality. For this reason, postmodernism is highly skeptical of explanations which claim to be valid for all groups, cultures, traditions, or races, and instead focuses on the relative truths of each person. In the postmodern understanding, interpretation is everything; reality only comes into being through our interpretations of what the world means to us individually. Postmodernism relies on concrete experience over abstract principles, knowing always that the outcome of one’s own experience will necessarily be fallible and relative, rather than certain and universal.

      Postmodernism is “post” because it is denies the existence of any ultimate principles, and it lacks the optimism of there being a scientific, philosophical, or religious truth which will explain everything for everybody – a characteristic of the so-called “modern” mind. The paradox of the postmodern position is that, in placing all principles under the scrutiny of its skepticism, it must realize that even its own principles are not beyond questioning. As the philosopher Richard Tarnas states, postmodernism “cannot on its own principles ultimately justify itself any more than can the various metaphysical overviews against which the postmodern mind has defined itself.”

      Specific ideas flowing from this philosophy include: there is no absolute truth, everyone discovers / defines their own truth, the ends justify the means, and reject all prior standards as flawed. Example: After Romney lost the election (2012), Harry Reid was challenged on spreading lies about Romney’s tax returns and Reid said “Well we won didn’t we.”

  3. Without a greenhouse effect the open space is effective social distancing. Another possibility is that the transmission path has been mischaracterized. SARS-CoV-2 may behave more like HIV than SARS.

  4. why is the City of Seattle still putting up major roadblocks for the use of their parks

    This reminds me of Obama closing parks and services to force a consensus on Obamacare. What do the Democrats et al want this time?

    • They want to virtually ELIMINATE our entire Justice system. No bail. No jail. No police officers arresting criminals. They don’t want law and order … because that is what allows America to operate so productively and freely. And they want to “transform” America … like Obama did. Law and Order is now seen as a “white construct” … just like math is.

    • n.n

      “…why is the City of Seattle still putting up major roadblocks for the use of their parks…”

      1) Because they can

      2) It’s damn good fun telling others what they can & can’t do

      3) Science? We don’t need no stinking science!

  5. Why? Maybe because it was never about Covid-19 OR public safety.

    This is a town that has let ANTIFA occupy with weaponry, entire city blocks – which Mayor Jenny Durkan (all too believably) actually calls a ‘peaceful protest’.

    • Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan is a typical delusional radical leftsit.

      She thinks it is perfectly fine for the Extremists to hold some of her citizens hostage.

      I bet the mayor would not be so fine were it her who was being held hostage. But she doesn’t have to worry about that so it’s no skin off her back to let the Extremists torture the citizens she is supposed to be protecting.

      Undecided voters, if you want to know what it would be like to live under the radical Democrat rule, just look at Seattle. Is that what you want for your town or city? Elect radical Democrats and that’s what you will get every time. The Democrats ruin everything they touch. Don’t let them ruin you and yours. Vote them out of power so we don’t have to put up with their craziness anymore.

  6. This video verifies what I’ve been saying. In terms of mortality, Covid-19(84) is mostly an anthropogenic disease.

      • Actually, they do. Get educated. Lots of success using less harmful forms of oxygenating patients.

        • Educate yourself. There are plenty of cases where even 100% oxygen support will not suffice alone. That is what I was referring to.

          • Much fewer in comparison to those who don’t. Gattinoni in Italy determined that was about 20-30% of his patients. Some hospitals have had 0%.

          • The two I mentioned were Europe. I don’t keep the detailed info in my head, but know how to find it when necessary. If you have trouble finding it, I’ll try to help.

      • The vast majority of people with CCP-19 put on ventilators die. So any kind of treatment should be aimed at preventing them from needing ventilators.

        In fact, there’s a certain amount of evidence that the disease doesn’t kill by lung damage, but by blood damage. Pumping more oxygen into the lungs doesn’t help if the blood can’t carry it.

        • Actually the high oxygen is what they need, but at lower pressure than is typically applied with intubation.

      • Apart from a few things she mentioned that I didn’t know (like doing DNRs contrary to families’ instructions when someone codes, covid and non-covid patients in same rooms), it matches very well with what I’ve read elsewhere.

      • She was on Fox/Tucker Carlson yesterday, if this is the same person who is a nurse with undercover video about what was going on and why, especially with having to put COVID-19 patients mixed in with non COVID patients, and they they all were sick together and many didn’t survive. I doubt Tucker would lie about that, or not ensure the story was 100% true.

        If all this is true, as it sure looks like it is, it is a pre-meditated and pre-mature first degree ‘expiry’ by Executive Order courtesy of Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, while they didn’t even utilize the Navy medical ship USNS Comfort that President Trump arranged on quick notice. This would be very sick and evil and needs to be investigated and people held accountable. Whether the motive was financial or just incompetence, is what needs to be determined.

        • “Whether the motive was financial or just incompetence, is what needs to be determined.”

          My guess is that it is the result of Right Man Syndrome. The bigshots in public health and the media, from WHO try the CDC to the FDA to WaPo had made, I suspect, prejudgments that this was a disease that required the attention of experts like themselves, and vaccines, and ventilators until they arrived (deciding it to be a lung disease like flu), and that mere “treatments” (like HFC) were beneath them as akin to mere folk medicine.

          This “line” was then (I suspect) picked up by WaPo and adopted by Cuomo. Once he had taken a public position that ventilators were needed and that Trump was to blame for deaths due to their shortage, administrators of public hospitals, seeking to curry his favor and future funding, set in place a pro-venting, fatalistic, anti-HFC policy like that seen in the hospital in the video.

          It’s pride at work: the bigshots don’t want to reverse course in public. (And hospital administrators presumably like the $29,000 they get per ventilated patient.)

          • No doubt there’ are those elitist entitlement and monetary aspects to it. Also there are the laziness/hassle and fear aspects. Non-harmful breathing assistance takes much more work and manpower than simply turning patients into a vegetables with sedatives and paralytic drugs and tweeking respirator dials now an then. And minimizing the risk of aerosolized virus to hospital workers by intubating patients takes precedence over patients’ well being and recovery.

          • The public health bigshots were quick out the box with their advice to stop smoking and vaping, just on general principles, apparently. But, oddly, smokers seem less affected by the virus. I hope we get some statistics on this eventually. It would be delicious (though unlikely) if it turned out that vaping protected users.

      • Nice to see someone who has no experience with the ‘Free’ health system.
        To what do you attribute your good health and that of all those around you
        Please let us in on your secret.

  7. As to parks last time I looked, Aransas County, Texas [Harvey strike point] Parks were still closed. Governor put out a 66 page document giving county judges power to make regulations. Barbers and patrons must wear masks, despite them being the most sterile (with UV) place around. County judge has a history of ignoring science and voters, our fault. I am going to fit right in (somewhere), bald, long side hair and beard. County had 5 cases, all from elsewhere. I have family as also does a good friend in other sanctuary counties nearby, Seattle which is of course the biggest sanctuary.

    On a related matter, this is what just happened to Weather Underground, a decent source of weather information despite uncritical blaming everything on “climate change.” IBM took them over some time back. Category 6 was their blog.
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/black-lives-matter-in-science-and-everywhere-else

    7 Pledges, everything except the constitution
    “Above: IBM has encouraged all of its employees to take the “Emb(race)” pledge”
    The first pledge is to speak out. Sounds more like the communist manifesto than the US constitution. Did IBM ever read either one? I am keeping their first pledge. Also, AMS, AGU, and AAAS are putting out a statement. I had already decided to dump Sigma Xi, the National Honor Research Society, who had partnered with AAAS about getting into politics, which is against the Sigma Xi constitution. A clear statement, when I complained they weaseled, no offense to weasels. I also had been censored. This is apparently their agenda, not official, but consistent with other information and actions they have produced or somebody would have told the author. Like WU American Scientist has had some good science, some decrease, but Sigma Xi is now into marching and protesting instead of emphasizing problem solving. They will probably ignore me, too old to march and protest.

    https://www.americanscientist.org/blog/macroscope/becoming-a-politically-engaged-scientist

  8. President Trump and his re-election organization has conceded this virus is dangerous. In order to attend his rally, you have to sign away your ability to sue in the event of becoming infected.

    • President Trump has conceded that any infection is going to be exploited by the press, and that enemy action will probably be at work to maximize the fear AND even the risk of infection, and is attempting to get ahead of it.

        • Which is a number that probably includes every single death they could possibly attribute to Covid. That means ‘inflated’. Cut that down by at least a third and your starting to get in to ‘bad flu season’.

          • If you claim it is “inflated” I suggest you provide us with proof. They don’t use refrigerated trailers in NYC for dead bodies in a “bad flu season.”

          • Yes. They do whenever there is a bad flu season – or any other above average mortality year – that’s what they do with them.

            And isn’t if funny how deaths from other causes seem to be way down?

          • Don’t forget that most of them were in care homes, where the average life expectancy is measured in months.

            Like the first big US outbreak, in a care home a short drive from Bill Gates’ house.

            And where Democrat governors deliberately sent infected people as though they wanted it to spread there, kill a lot of people and create headlines they could use to justify their actions.

          • ‘You can’t compare this to a “bad flu season” because the flu season has already ended, and this thing continues to go on. On top of that, that number is for only four months, a typical flu season is six.’

            Yes you can – you just did.

            And everything we’ve done has done nothing but prolong the epidemic. But you go right along trembling.

          • Joel, this is much worse than a “bad flu season.” Just ask the doctors and nurses treating the victims.

          • HP, like ask the multitudes of bored Tic-Toc nurses and the know-nothing, heartless doctors who practice on their hapless patients and work death?

          • The average stay at an assisted living facility is 29 months and the median stay is 21 months. Roughly 20-25% of the residents will only survive about 3 months which means a large number of residents will stay more than 3 years to drive up the average.

            Keep those numbers in mind when making excuses for the poor government decisions / directives during the Covid-19 pandemic in several states run by “progressives”.

          • Question: If someone suffering from 6 gunshot wounds to the chest dies, but also had Covid-19, does that death get counted as being caused by Covid-19?

            Answer: It does in the State of New York.

            Cheers
            MaxP

        • It appears that if China had done its duty, had not dropped the virus bomb on Italy, and had not lied to everyone for as long as possible, and had the W.H.O. not been run by an incompetent corrupt schlub, that 2020 would merely have had a flu season somewhat worse than average.

          No lockdowns, no closed parks, no masks, no lost jobs, no economic poison-pill. And no excess nursing-home deaths.

          Someone needs to be dragged outside.

          • C’mon. What’s 18,000 to a covid-reaction apologist.

        • 6/5/2020 18:55 UTC, 116,437 Americans dead.

          1957 Asian flu -116,000 Americans dead

          What is this a pissing contest?

          • Why does nobody say anything about approximately 100,000 Hospital Acquired Infections that cut peoples life short per year in the USA? Similar number now as COVID. Granted, that is over 12 months, but is still a real scary thing. Most of those people probably would still be alive, similar to the Wuhan/China virus, depending on the medical condition they were in the hospital to begin with. The majority of those would have survived if not picking up one of these super bugs that no antibiotic will touch in the worst cases. You would think the hospitals would be no go zones for most everyone. Well I guess they are now, but for the China virus.

            And there are a dozen more examples if anyone likes. Many self infected but state sponsored. How about closing down international travel to Malaria hotspots world wide, since 2-3 million expire from that every year too? SARS CoV-2 was definitely weaponized against the world by China after the cat was out of the bag, whether they cultivated the virus for gain of function or not. The facts speak for themselves. CPC Red China knew and they must pay. Revenge is a dish best served cold, which is exactly what they did. Devastate the West, pick up the pieces on the rebound and use this as cover for other operations we see them up to no good around the world.

          • That’s 116,000 dead with a US population of 172.5 million yirgach.

            Scaled up to today’s 325 million, that’s equivalent to 218.550 dead.

            Henry can put that in his Pool and swim in it.

          • Frank, the 1957 flu has ended, whereas COVID-19 is ongoing. The final tally isn’t in yet.

    • I would say Henry it is the Democrats in the blue states controlling this disaster, led by New York State and New York City. And it is a HUGE disaster. Tens of thousands of people, primarily poor Blacks and Hispanics, are taking the brunt of this and a lot of them with their lives. Trump and the Federal Government is ancillary to all this. It’s the Governors and Mayors making the day-to-day decisions and most of what they have done is a catastrophe especially to the poor.

      • The Democrats are not in control of Brazil, Russia, India, the UK, etc. Why are these places also experiencing this “disaster?”

        • Gee, because most of the politicians we’re discussing could give a crap about their citizens? Just a guess.

          The elderly seem to have been hit more catastrophically than any other group.

        • Mate, it’s only in the richer cities in Brazil, Russia and India that are having the covid panic attack. covid-19 is really a 1st world disease. No one else seems to be troubled by it.

          Weird, huh?

        • Ahh, interesting question.

          Lets start with the facts for Brazil.
          1) brazil’s government is similar to the US with a president running the country and the governors running the states.
          2) there is an active battle between (some of) the states and the federal government due to party politics
          3) lockdowns and other measures are thought up and implemented by the governors preferably (in some states) in the exact opposite direction of what the federal government proposes, again mainly due to political posturing
          4) some really weird things are going on with this virus specifically the high number of cases and deaths in the sunny warm north

          So to me it seems that once the virus was politicized (by the left) common sense goes out the door and party politics become more important then saving lives. I really hope people will learn from this and get rid of these politicians in the next elections. The primary role/duty of the government is to serve the country and the people living there, NOT the other way around!

      • The poor are bearing the brunt because they have to use public hospitals. See video above about how some of them are slaughter machines.

        • Survival rate in New York City was not any better in private hospitals.

          Anti-coagulation treatment made one of the first big impacts.

          • Do you have the data that shows that? I would like to see mortality data for private vs. public hospitals.

          • Mount Sinai had over 60% of people dying requiring mechanical ventilation without anti-coagulation:

            https://www.onlinejacc.org/content/early/2020/05/05/j.jacc.2020.05.001

            Dropped to 29% when treated.

            All mortality rates per hospital have to be adjusted for race though. Study from the UK with NHS data showed that people with African-Carribbean background are more than twice as likely to die from COVID-19 if compared with people of Caucasian background with same co-morbities and age. NHS is health service for all of UK, only 6% of all beds available are private.

            Ethnic diversity has therefore a big impact of deaths to be reported in a hospital.

      • Yes the Democrats in NY and NJ do appear to have it under control, their new cases and deaths are down in a very low tail compared with earlier in the outbreak. It is that which makes the US numbers look good, without NY/NJ the US numbers are still going up.

  9. A note of caution: what was the average age of the participants to these protests? Considering that it is over 60 year olds that get a lot of symptomsand go for tests , if the average age of the crowd is below thirty, and no test for virus has been done to the samples, it could be that there is a surge in symptom-less infections that has not been recorded because not tested for.

    • It is the elderly, the male and the black community who are most at risk, so ironically if infections spread to these groups the protestors will have managed te be racist, sexist and ageist

      Tonyb

  10. Ignore the park closed signs … just make sure you have a piece of cardboard with “black lives matter” scrawled across it and you can access the parks as well.

  11. Answer: because they can. We, the People … need to demand REAL science and REAL data be used to guide our decision-makers. The broad brush statistical nonsense that’s been used to foment FEAR (and the consequent CONTROL) in the population is fascist. Sorry, but it’s the same kind of irrational FEAR Hitler used to convince Germans that the Jews were a “virus” infecting Germany.

  12. The COVID lockdown and forced closures are an exercise in conditioning behavior for social control of the population. If there is to be any hope for the Left of imposing its anti-captialism agenda (UN Agenda 2030) on the American public (and the publics of Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ) they need to begin a series of social conditioning exercises the public to accept Communist China-style population controls.

    Bottom-line: These COVID lockdowns are just the beginning of a series of large Population Control Conditioning Events (PCCEs) we can expect to come out of politicians in the coming 10 years. To a large degree, free speech must controlled (censorship on social media), the Conservative views silenced (Cancel Culture), and ability to resist removed (gun confiscation).

    Even many Republican Governors in the US have been duped with deeply flawed epidemiological model projections into adopting these measures to a degree. I think now many are realizing what was happening to them. The Democratic governors now are just willing to do anything, including destroying their state economies and the welfare of their residents to stop Trump from being re-elected. The Left has gone insane.

    I think the “Boy-crying Wolf” parable is apt here:
    “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

  13. Antifa domestic terrorists in Washington state occupied and blockaded an “autonomous zone” dubbed “CHAZ” (Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone) in six square blocks of Seattle this last Monday. The Seattle police chief Carmen Best says the police are unable to respond to rapes, robberies, and other acts of violence in CHAZuela because they are constrained by the political leadership. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/12/seattle-police-chief-cops-not-able-to-respond-to-rapes-robberies-due-to-autonomous-zone/

    Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan said “The occupied area of CHAZuela is more like a block party than an occupation.” Governor Inslee, on Wednesday afternoon, said he didn’t know anything about rioters and looters occupying and blockading 6 blocks in the Seattle Capitol Hill neighborhood.
    https://youtu.be/9SyLjm-53qU

    • And, curiously, the first thing they did in CHAZ was create a border wall. Who knew that Antifers were closet Trump supporters!

      Yet, since their chaotic behavior will cause the average voter to prefer a “law and order” candidate, maybe Trump has been paying them on the sly….

  14. When the woke capture Washington they will presumably want to rename it due to that Ex presidents association with slavery.

    Kingsville has a nice ring but perhaps he is seen as rather dated, Floydstown would be seen as surfing the zeitgeist.

    So when washington falls has anyone got any better suggestions for a new name?

    As for Seattle I don’t know it’s history we’ll enough, but surely there must be some racism in there somewhere that warrants a revamp of its road names to reflect these enlightened times?

    Tonyb

  15. Antifa fascism is a more deadly world wide virus than any other pandemic. Anywhere this infection erupts should be immediately quarantined and sanitized to prevent further spread.

  16. If you want to enjoy the parks, I suggest you go with some friends in a group and carry signs that say “All Oppression Matters”.

  17. This article supports the concept that playing pro sports without a live audience is overcautious nonsense. At least in outdoor stadiums.

    • If this kneel for the anthem nonsense flares back up there won’t be a lot of fans there anyway.

      • Can you imagine if the hundreds of thousand of Americans and others who sacrificed blood and treasure to confront slavery (i.e. involuntary exploitation), diversity (i.e. color judgments), and redistributive change took a knee, rather than stand for human and civil rights. They made the difference to mitigate progress when it mattered.

    • No, you still have to monitor for symptomatic people… persons, and take precautions to identify people at elevated risk.

  18. From the article:
    “there has NOT been an upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and thus transmission outside has to be minimal to non-existent.”

    This conclusion came from the posted graph? titled “UW Virology Percent Positive”

    I don’t see how a change ( or lack ) in PERCENT POSITIVE of casesactually tested implies a change in the statitstical total number of positive tests.

  19. Will they write people a ticket for a family picnic in a park, but Not write a ticket to those in CHAZ that tore up a soccer field to plant vegetables and vandalized/looted businesses?

    I know where I’ll never be moving.

  20. If you want to enjoy the parks, just go and declare it an independent “police free” zone. Posting a BLM and/or “Defund the Police” sign will assure you that the authorities will leave you alone. At least in Seattle.

  21. From the article: “The bottom line of all this? With all the lack of social distancing and maximal ejection of droplets from people (from chanting, singing, screaming and dealing with pepper spray and tear gas), COVID-19 has not surged.”

    This is not true today. Cliff’s article is a couple of days old I imagine, but the latest news is there *is* a surge in new Wuhan virus cases in several States. CBS News just reported that Houston may have to turn one of its sports centers into a new hospital because of the increase in patients there. Maybe David can weigh in on this.

    We can’t tell how much of this surge is due to crowds getting together, and how much is due to increased testing. Oklahoma, for example, has had a small increase in cases over the last week, but we have been testing at four times the rate we were doing in the recent past, and this applies to many States who are doing the same.

    We do have a surge. It may be increased testing or it may be increased infections.

    • As always, time will tell. It’s too early to see a surge in cases. Incubation time -> symptoms -> testing -> reporting. Can easily be 14 days. Surge in hospitalizations maybe even later.

      But depending on how windy it was there might be not so many new cases bc of the protests directly. Other protest-related gatherings indoors are another story.

    • Increased testing will inevitably result in increased positives, because so many people have the disease without symptoms or with minimal symptoms. They would never have been tested in the early days, but they will be tested now with much greater availability of tests.

    • Tom,
      Correlation is not causation and in fact there may not even be very much correlation. We would have to look at the timing of reported infections versus when the protests started, location of the infections versus where the protests occurred (at least down to the county level), and account for changes in testing. We should also consider only looking at hospitalizations instead of positive tests since one would expect that to be relatively invariant to the number of tests conducted. It may be too early to make a conclusion one way or the other, but if there had been a large effect I think it would be very apparent by now.

  22. I don’t know. We had a string of zeros in my medium midwest town recently. Then some college kids organized a Floyd protest march downtown. Now, seven new cases.

  23. Nothing could be finer than to have President Trump pack 20-30-40 thousand elderly, obese, diabetic, high-cholesterol, high blood pressure folks into an arena where they all are screaming and shouting. It will also be good for President Trump, since any of them that get infected and die won’t be able to sue because they had to sign away their right to do so in order to attend.

      • If Trump supporters are intelligent they will not sign the waiver, so he won’t be filling up his venue.

        • The Wuhan virus will not deter Trump’s supporters.

          After you watch Trump do his rally, think about Joe Biden trying to match him.

          Yes, Trump needs to get back out on the road to talk to the People directly without the filter of the Leftwing Media. The Swamp in Washington DC is going all-out to smear Trump in any way they can think of, and Trump needs to get out to his rally and fight back.

          I dare say, not one criticim of Trump by these heavy hitters Joe China was so excited about, had any substantive criticism of Trump. It’s all personal opinions. They haven’t laid a glove on Trump although you wouldn’t know it listening to the Leftwing Propaganda machine.

          You are seeing examples of just how well-coordinated the DC Swamp really is. This whole charade is orchestrated by the Left, which more or less controls the Swamp, but there are snakes from all political sides involved. Power is what they are really after, and Trump is taking their power away because he’s not a team player, and they mean to take him out of the political picture no matter how many lies they have tell.

          It’s just amazing to see all the Forces of Evil arrayed against Trump, doing every evil, underhanded, dishonest thing they can think of to undermine Trump and yet Trump is beating the hell out of all of them. The Forces of Evil are trying to take away our personal freedoms. Trump is about the only one standing in the way,.like Horatius at the Bridge.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lays_of_Ancient_Rome

          “Horatius

          The first poem, Horatius, describes how Publius Horatius and two companions, Spurius Lartius and Titus Herminius, hold the Sublician bridge, the only span crossing the Tiber at Rome, against the Etruscan army of Lars Porsena, King of Clusium. The three heroes are willing to die in order to prevent the enemy from crossing the bridge, and sacking the otherwise ill-defended city. While the trio close with the front ranks of the Etruscans, Roman engineers hurriedly work to demolish the bridge, leaving their enemies on the far side of the swollen river.[3]

          This poem contains the often-quoted lines:

          Then out spake brave Horatius,
          The Captain of the Gate:
          “To every man upon this earth
          Death cometh soon or late.
          And how can man die better
          Than facing fearful odds,
          For the ashes of his fathers,
          And the temples of his Gods.”[4]

          Haul down the bridge, Sir Consul,
          With all the speed ye may;
          I, with two more to help me,
          Will hold the foe in play.
          In yon strait path a thousand
          May well be stopped by three.
          Now who will stand on either hand,
          And keep the bridge with me?

          As the span becomes unstable, Horatius urges Lartius and Herminius to retreat, while he fights on alone. His companions regain the Roman side before the bridge begins to collapse, but Horatius can no longer cross to safety, and therefore leaps into the river, still fully armoured. Macaulay writes,

          No sound of joy or sorrow
          Was heard from either bank;
          But friends and foes in dumb surprise,
          With parted lips and straining eyes,
          Stood gazing where he sank:
          And when above the surges
          They saw his crest appear,
          All Rome sent forth a rapturous cry,
          And even the ranks of Tuscany
          Could scarce forbear to cheer.

          He reaches the Roman shore, is richly rewarded, and gains mythic status by his act of bravery:

          With weeping and with laughter
          Still is the story told,
          How well Horatius kept the bridge
          In the brave days of old.”

          end excerpt

          Trump is holding our Freedom Bridge.

          • I heard this morning that 300,000 people have signed up to attend Trump’s rally in Oklahoma, so far.

            Trump has a lot of people helping him defend the Bridge of Freedom.

    • Nothing could be finer than to have President Trump pack 20-30-40 thousand elderly, obese, diabetic, high-cholesterol, high blood pressure folks into an arena . . .

      The finest of the filthiest of American society started it:

      https://tinyurl.com/y8knfn3y

      • Nursing homes know how to handle contagious infections. Especially so when they have the proper PPE, ventilators and drugs.

        • “Nursing homes know how to handle contagious infections.” Mr. Pool would you be speaking from personal experience. If so how many nursing homes have you inspected?

          Surely moving infectious patients to a separate facility with trained and properly equipped staff would make more sense and then, once they have recovered, they could go into nursing homes?
          The way of doing things being proposed here is likely to artificially inflate the CCP Virus death-rate which will in turn trigger an extension of public policy highly detrimental to the economy and to some extent also to Trump’s electoral performance. It’s possible that it might also help Democrats retain control of congress as a small shift could have a disproportionately large result.

          • . . . once they have recovered, they could go into nursing homes?

            Why would anyone who has recovered go into a nursing home???

    • Henry,
      You have devolved into a seriously ill, TDS infected troll. May you have a speedy recovery to sanity.

      • He really is. On one hand he is a climate change skeptic, but when it comes to Trump he flat out goes insane. If Trump saved a drowning baby Henry would be there to toss it back in so Trump wouldn’t get credit.

  24. “At Seattle Parks picnicking or stopping to enjoy the view is forbidden to normal folks.”

    Who enforces that prohibition? The police can’t.

  25. Watch the Erin Olszewski video posted above. Olszewski sounds sincere and knowledgeable throughout. There is no way that this is a hoax. Come on, people. Doesn’t it seem strange that New York City should have COVID outcomes that are so much worse than other large American cities? There must have been some factor play, and Olszewski makes a very good case for the allegation that overdiagnosis and overreliance on ventilators dramatically increased the death count from COVID-19 in New York.

    I’ll just break it down very briefly” Olszewski says that half of the people diagnosed with COVID-19 did not actually have the disease. They had some other respiratory dysfunction, and many may have been having anxiety attacks caused (ironically) by fear of COVID. The protocol at Elmhurst Hospital in New York was to heavily sedate COVID patients and put them on ventilators. This causes actual lung trauma, and was fatal in 90 percent of the patients who were subjects of it. This is what caused the unusually high death toll in New York.

    Olszewski, who seems like an extraordinarily brave and conscientious woman, is perfectly credible throughout. I expect this video to be suppressed very soon, as it is incendiary.

  26. Why? just the need to ensure the masses understand (and continue to accept) that they need to be controlled. Its all for their own good.

  27. The 12 to 22 day cyclic nature of infection simply masks the risks of Covid19 in outdoor air.

  28. yup.

    Once again if you look at the data from Korea where they chase down every transmission you will find
    the vast majority are from INSIDE locations with poor ventilation.

    Outside? Nothing.

    HOWEVER,

    you need to give it more than a couple weeks to see if there is any signal in the test data

    Counfounding factors:
    A) Asymptomatic cases may run north of 50%. This slows the appearance of a signal in the test data
    UNLESS you are doing mass testing. As an example, We had a recent cluster in Korea that started
    with 1 case on May 1st. all of the transmission didn’t show up for a month.
    B) Protestors probably tended to be younger

    “next”

    King County, the center of the protests, has shown no peak in hospitalizations.

    Wrong metric. wait 6 weeks for that

  29. I do not agree with author at all. First results are showing after 2 weeks. So wait few days. On the other side last daily number for US was 27,000. That looks like pretty high uptick from last days 20,000 average.

  30. “….Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?….”

    …because the American Legal System will support any claim for damage – no matter how trivial and unlikely – unless the authorities can be shown to have closed services at the least threat of danger and only opened them again when either the press have moved attention away or the service is provably 100% safe….

  31. It is even sillier than that. The WHO says “social distancing” must be no less than 1m. Many countries have implemented this policy. Some countries, UK, have set 2m. Australia it’s 1.5m. So what is the right distance?

    I say it’s all bollox!

  32. “Protests Reveal Little Threat of COVID-19 in Outside Air: Why Is Seattle Still Restricting Park Access?”

    For the same reason that Vermont remains shutdown despite having the lowest incidence of mortality in the lower 48. It has nothing to do with science other than trying to use it for political agendas. The agenda is to keep as many states shut down for as long as possible in order to try and stop an economic recovery. Thus Red states are far outstripping Blue states in opening up and their economic numbers show it.

    White House Adviser Kevin Hassett Discusses Growth Estimates and Red State/Blue State Divide…
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/06/12/white-house-adviser-kevin-hassett-discusses-growth-estimates-and-red-state-blue-state-divide/

  33. It’s a lot cheaper to run a park if people don’t use it. Less trash dumped for a start, less trash bins to be emptied!!

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