Nature: ChiCom-19 Fatality Rate Similar to Influenza

ChiCom-19

Aldo Ray as Sgt, Muldoon, The Green Berets, 1968.

Why do I call all things coronavirus, ChiCom-19?

  1. Because it is a destructive weapon that came from Communist China. This doesn’t mean it was an engineered bio-weapon or that it was intentionally used to attack almost every nation on Earth.
  2. It was made nearly twenty times more deadly and destructive by Red Chinese deceit, and that deceit was abetted and parroted by the United Nations (WHO).
  3. Communism is not a race… Don’t even go there. Nationalist China’s warnings were ignored by the WHO.

COVID-19 has claimed at least 42,000 lives worldwide. A University of Southampton study estimates 95 percent of infections would have been avoided if China had acted just three weeks earlier — instead of silencing those who sought to save lives.

NY Post April 1, 2020

Beijing silenced Wuhan laboratories which had realized in December that the coronavirus was related to the deadly SARS virus from 2002-2003, and continued to claim that coronavirus could not be transmitted from human-to-human for weeks after evidence of that fact emerged.

The WHO parroted Beijing’s line on January 14, tweeting that there was “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.” The WHO also defended China’s multiple drastic alterations to its coronavirus case count, and has not criticized Beijing for refusing to count asymptomatic cases until April 1. Multiple reports have detailed how China backed Tedros’s bid for WHO director general in 2017, after he had worked closely with Beijing as Ethiopia’s health minister.

National Review April 9, 2020

The only thing the WHO is good for is…

And now the rest of the story (H/T Paul Harvey)

Guest “END THE FRACKING HOSTAGE CRISIS NOW!” by David Middleton

NEWS 17 APRIL 2020
UPDATE 19 APRIL 2020
Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.

Widespread antibody testing in a Californian county has revealed a much higher prevalence of coronavirus infection than official figures suggested. The findings also indicate that the virus is less deadly than current estimates of global case and death counts suggest.

[…]

How deadly is SARS-CoV-2?

Sero-surveys can also provide a better estimate of how deadly a virus is, using a measure known as the infection fatality rate (IFR) — the proportion of all infections, not just those confirmed through clinical testing, that result in death.

[…]

The Santa Clara team estimated an IFR for the county of 0.1–0.2%, which would equate to about 100 deaths in 48,000-82,000 infections. 

[…]

Fatality rate estimates have been revised down over time as more people have been tested and researchers have gained more insight into less-severe cases, as happened with swine flu in 2009, says Eran Bendavid, a population-health researcher at Stanford University who led the Santa Clara study.

[…]

Nature

The case fatality rate for influenza pandemics is about 0.1-0.2%. Yes, the Nature article babbles a lot about “experts” raising “concerns about the reliability of antibody kits”… “Experts” always raise concerns about anything that dilutes the power of their “expertise.”

In the meantime hostage crisis protests are spreading across America…

US governors feel heat to reopen from protesters, president
By PAUL WEBER and FRANK JORDANS
yesterday

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Stores in Texas can soon begin selling merchandise with curbside service, and hospitals can resume nonessential surgeries. In Florida, people are returning to a few beaches and parks. And protesters are clamoring for more.

Governors eager to rescue their economies and feeling heat from President Donald Trump are moving to ease restrictions meant to control the spread of the coronavirus, even as new hot spots emerge and experts warn that moving too fast could prove disastrous.

Adding to the pressure are protests against stay-at-home orders organized by small-government groups and Trump supporters. They staged demonstrations Saturday in several cities after the president urged them to “liberate” three states led by Democratic governors.

[…]

AP

The Fire Marshal Gumps of America might want to read up on Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence and our third president…

And what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.

Thomas Jefferson, letter to William Stephens Smith, 1787

Day twenty- or thirty-something of America held hostage by ChiCom-19

The local Dallas County numbers continue to be underwhelming. As of noon Saturday:

4/19/2020
Dallas CountyCHICOM-19
PopulationCasesDeaths
2,637,7722,324602.6%
% of population with0.09%0.00%
% with, rounded0.1%0.0%
% without99.91%100.0%
% without, rounded99.9%100%
Menodoza Line (.200)3/12/2035       0.200

And much to the chagrin of Dallas County Commissar Fire Marshal Gump, the Great State of Texas will lead the nation in ending the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis:

CORONAVIRUS
‘Step by step, we will open’: Texas becomes first state to announce dates easing COVID-19 restrictions amid novel coronavirus pandemic

Friday, April 17, 2020

AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued three executive orders Friday that outline how to reopen the state amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The announcement from the governor has been long awaited, with Abbott adding that the state and its decisions must be guided by data and doctors.

He started Friday’s briefing with hope, noting that, “We are now beginning to see glimmers that the worst of COVID-19 may soon be behind us,” and that Texas has the second-most recoveries of all the states.

[…]

ABC News 7

Fire Marhal Gump, anything to add?

Dallas County Reports Deadliest Week Yet in Fight Against COVID-19
The new cases bring the county’s total 2,324 cases and 60 deaths

By Claire Cardona and Allie Spillyards • Published April 18, 2020

Dallas County on Saturday reported five additional deaths and 134 more positive cases of the new coronavirus.

“Today’s five deaths bring our weekly fatalities to 33, which is the deadliest week so far and 55% of all COVID19 deaths in Dallas County,” county Judge Clay Jenkins said in a written statement. “Today’s number of new cases is the most we have ever reported.”

The five additional deaths include a Grand Prairie man in his 80s, a University Park woman in her 90s and three residents of long-term care facilities — two men and a woman, all in their 70s.

[…]


NBC5DFW

Hey Gump! The people who died last week got into the “checkout line” over two weeks ago!

Hey Gump! Read your own county’s fracking reports!

Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 134 additional positive cases of COVID-19 today, bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 2,324. Five additional deaths are being reported, including:

*A man in his 80’s who was a resident of the City of Grand Prairie and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of the City of Universal Park and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and has been hospitalized in an area hospital.
*A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.


Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Most (69%) deaths have been male. Twenty deaths have been associated with long-term care facilities.

Dallas County HHS

Every death is tragic… But killing everybody through economic strangulation is really FRACKING stupid!

Just to close out on a lighter note… Red China’s best bud sees this as an opportunity to “fundamentally change the science relating to global warming”… Because ChiCom-19. Be sure to follow the facial expressions of the CNN buffoons…

Watching Biden is like watching Weekend at Bernie’s, except it’s as if there’s a random word generator implanted in his brain whatever is between his ears.

342 thoughts on “Nature: ChiCom-19 Fatality Rate Similar to Influenza

  1. Mr Middleton do you disagree with this time line.
    Danger was communicated 14th January

    December 21st 2019
    Chinese epidemiologists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published an article on 20th January 2020 stating that the first cluster of patients with ‘pneumonia of an unknown cause’ had been identified on 21st December 2019

    You cannot act on this – it is a sort of pneumonia with unknown transmission. It was published therefore no secret

    December 31st 2019
    Chinese authorities confirmed they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. Days laters researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people. There was no evidence that the virus was spread by humans.
    China contacts the WHO and informs them of ‘cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology’ detected in Wuhan

    no evidence for human to human spread and who informed

    1 January 2020
    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    January 2nd 2020
    Central Hospital of Wuhan banned its staff from discussing the disease publicly or recording them using text or image that can be used as evidence

    Chinese damage limitation not called for

    4 January 2020
    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.

    5 January 2020
    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    January 8th 2020
    The Chinese government agrees to accept a WHO scientific team to assist their own researchers

    WHO goes to China now they cannot hide problems

    10 January 2020
    Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to a novel coronavirus. This information is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response and control actions.

    January 11th 2020
    Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus. It was a 61-year old man who was a regular customer of the market in Wuhan where the virus is believed to have originated, and had previously been found to have abdominal tumors and chronic liver disease.

    first death many co-morbidities – so was this the virus?

    12 January 2020
    China shares the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus, which will be very important for other countries as they develop specific diagnostic kits.
    First case of novel coronavirus outside of China confirmed

    13 January 2020
    Officials confirmed a case of the novel coronavirus in Thailand. It was not unexpected that cases of the novel coronavirus would emerge outside of China and reinforces why WHO calls for active monitoring and preparedness in other countries.
    WHO makes field visit to Wuhan, China

    January 14th 2020
    Reporters from Hong Kong taken to police station after trying to film the situation within Wuhan hospital

    Chinese damage limitation

    14 January 2020
    WHO’s technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.

    January 20th 2020
    The first confirmed cases outside mainland China occurred in Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the WHO.

    January 21st 2020
    The first confirmed case of the virus in the US in Washington State, where a man in his 30s developed symptoms after returning from a trip to Wuhan.

    US now knows

    21 January 2020
    The delegation observed and discussed active surveillance processes, temperature screening at Wuhan Tianhe airport, laboratory facilities, infection prevention and control measures at Zhongnan hospital and its associated fever clinics, and the deployment of a test kit to detect the virus.
    The delegation also discussed public communication efforts and China’s plan to expand the case definition for the novel coronavirus, which will build a clearer picture of the spectrum of severity of the virus. At the end of the visit, the Chinese Government released the primers and probes used in the test kit for the novel coronavirus to help other countries detect it. Chinese experts also shared a range of protocols that will be used in developing international guidelines, including case definitions, clinical management protocols and infection control.
    Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

    January 22nd 2020
    Public Health England announces it is moving the risk level to the British public from ‘very low’ to ‘low’.

    uk knows – us and uk not taking action – why?

    22 January 2020
    WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

    22- 23 January 2020

    The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.

    January 23rd 2020
    Wuhan (population over 11 million) is cut off by the Chinese authorities. Planes and trains leaving the city are cancelled, and buses, subways and ferries within the city are suspended. 17 people had died at this point and 570 infected in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the US.
    Figures compiled by the Chinese Railway Administration showed that approximately 100,000 people had already departed from Wuhan Train Station by the deadline.
    Construction begins in Wuhan for a specialist emergency hospital which opened on 3rd February

    lock down – us uk no action why?

    Trump::Jan 24
    China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!

    January 26th 2020
    China extends the ‘Spring Festival’ holiday in order to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
    Schools in Beijing to stay closed until further notice

    Trump:: Jan 27
    We are in very close communication with China concerning the virus. Very few cases reported in USA, but strongly on watch. We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary. Our experts are extraordinary!

    28 January 2020
    A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.
    While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.

    January 29th 2020
    The UK’s first two patients test positive for Coronavirus after two Chinese nationals from the same family staying at a hotel in York fall ill.
    A plane evacuating Britons from Wuhan arrives at RAF Brize Norton. Passengers go into a 14 day quarantine at a specialist hospital on Merseyside.

    still no uk/us action

    January 30th 2020
    WHO declares a global health emergency amid thousands of new cases in China.

    who declares emergency – there is a definite problem – us/uk no action

    30 January 2020
    WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, following a second meeting of the Emergency Committee convened under the International Health Regulations.
    Acknowledging that cases have been reported in five WHO regions in one month, the Committee noted that early detection, isolating and treating cases, contact tracing and social distancing measures – in line with the level of risk – can all work to interrupt virus spread.

    Trump::jan 30
    Working closely with China and others on Coronavirus outbreak. Only 5 people in U.S., all in good recovery.

    Trump::Jan 30
    Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!

    January 31st 2020
    The US suspends entry into the country by any foreign nationals who had travelled to China in the past 14 days, excluding the immediate family members of US citizens or permanent residents.
    213 people had died and 9,800 infected worldwide.

    us action on flights (should have happened earlier to be effective virus is already rampant in us) us/uk no lock down why?

    February 1st 2020
    Spain confirms its first case of the coronavirus on La Gomera in the Canary Islands

    February 2nd 2020
    The first death of coronavirus is reported outside China, as a 44-year-old man in the Philippines dies after being infected.

    3 February 2020
    WHO releases the international community’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems

    February 4th 2020
    The UK directs its citizens to leave China if possible

    spread it further???

    February 5th 2020
    A cruise ship in Japan quarantines 3600 people after a two-week trip to Southeast Asia. 218 people onboard the ship tested positive for the virus.

    February 7th 2020
    The Chinese doctor Dr. Li Wenliang, who tried to ring early alarms that a cluster of infections could spin out of control, dies after contracting the virus. He was reprimanded by authorities in early January and he was forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor.

    Trump:: Feb 7
    Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!

    Trump::Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”

    February 11th 2020
    The disease is named ‘Covid-19’, an acronym that stands for coronavirus disease 2019. 1113 people in China have died with 44,653 cases, and 393 cases outside of China.

    11-12 February 2020
    WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC’s chief epidemiologist.

    February 14th 2020
    France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe – an 80-year-old Chinese tourist. The fourth death from the virus outside mainland China.
    Egypt confirms its first case, the first on the African continent.

    Trump::Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

    February 17th 2020
    China said it was reviewing its trade and consumption of wildlife, which has been identified as a probable source of the outbreak

    February 19th 2020
    443 passengers leave the Diamond Princess cruises ship. A total of 621 people aboard the ship were infected.

    Trump::Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”

    February 21st 2020
    The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source. Iran announced the two cases then hours later said that both patients had died. Two days later, Iran announced two additional deaths.
    The South Korean government shuts down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community centres, following a surge in infections linked to the secretive church the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.

    south korean lock down bypassed by religious sect worship

    February 23rd 2020
    Italy sees a major surge in coronavirus cases – up to 150. Officials locked down 10 towns in Lombardy after a cluster of cases suddenly emerged in Codogno, southeast of Milan. Schools closed and sporting and cultural events were canceled.
    Italy introduces strict measures which place almost 50,000 people in lockdown in an attempt to control the virus

    italy lock down too late

    February 24th 2020
    The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response – the US had 35 confirmed cases and no deaths.
    Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus, with 61 cases and 12 deaths. It is a cause for worry as a place of pilgrimage.

    Iran problems made worse by sanctions

    Trump::Feb. 24 (tweet): “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

    Trump::Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”

    Feb. 25: “Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much, in fact, we’re very close to a vaccine,”

    February 26th 2020
    Latin America reports its first coronavirus case, as Brazilian health officials said that a 61-year-old Sao Paulo man, returning from Italy, tested positive for the virus.

    Trump::Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

    February 28th 2020
    800 people are now infected in Italy, and cases in 14 other European countries remain an area of concern
    Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection.
    The first British victim dies of coronavirus onboard the Diamond Princess.
    UK authorities confirm the first case of the illness to be passed on inside the country.
    The worst week for the global stock markets since the 2008 financial crash.
    The WHO raises the coronavirus alert to the highest level.

    no action from us/uk re lockdown. Whatever the WHO says at this point is irrelevant – the dangers are self evident

    Trump::Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate.”

    Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

    Feb. 28: “This is their new hoax.”

    February 29th 2020
    The US records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions of ‘do not travel’ warnings for areas in Italy and South Korea. It also bans all travel to Iran and bars entry to any foreign citizen who had visited Iran in the previous 14 days.

    the virus is loose in the us restrictions not really relevant at this point

    March 4th 2020
    Cases of Covid-19 surge in the UK, as officials announce the biggest one-day increase so far as 34 cases bring the total to 87
    Italy announces it is shutting schools and universities.

    Trump::March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”

    March 4: Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it is very mild… So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better and then, when you do have a death like you had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York, you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4 percent, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1 percent.

    Trump::March 9 (tweet): “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

    March 10th 2020
    Nadine Dorries, a junior health minister, becomes the first MP to test positive for coronavirus.
    6 people in the UK have now died of the illness, with 373 testing positive

    Trump::March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

    March 11th 2020
    The US blocks travel from European countries other than the UK for 30 days, as the WHO declares the virus a pandemic and stock markets plunge.
    Chancellor Rishi Sunak announces a £12bn package of emergency support to help the UK cope with the expected onslaught from coronavirus

    11 March 2020
    Deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction, WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.

    Trump::March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”

    Trump::March 12: “It’s going to go away. … The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”

    March 13th 2020
    The US declares a national emergency and makes $50 billion in federal funds available to tackle the coronavirus.
    A host of UK sporting events announce their postponement including the London Marathon. Premier League fixtures are suspended.

    Trump::March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”

    March 16th 2020
    Latin America imposes restrictions on their citizens to slow the spread of the virus. Venezuela announces a nationwide quarantine to begin on March 17th. Ecuador and Peru implement countrywide lockdowns, and Colombia and Costa Rica close their borders. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro encourages mass demonstrations by his supporters against his opponents in congress.
    Boris Johnson begins daily press briefings, urging everybody in the UK to work from home and avoid pubs and restaurants to give the NHS time to cope with the pandemic.
    The UK’s death toll rises to 55, with 1,543 confirmed cases, though it is believed 10,000 people have already been infected.

    March 17th 2020
    France imposes a nationwide lockdown, prohibiting all gatherings and only allowing people to go out for fresh air. France had more than 6,500 infections with more than 140 deaths
    The EU bars most travellers from outside the bloc for 30 days.
    Rishi Sunak unleashes the biggest package of emergency state support for business since the 2008 financial crash, unveiling £330bn-worth of government-backed loans and more than £20bn in tax cuts and grants for companies threatened with collapse.

    Trump::march 17: “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic”

    March 18th 2020
    The UK government announces most schools across England will be shut down from Friday until further notice. Wales and Scotland announce they will also close schools.

    uk lockdown begins

    18 March 2020
    WHO and partners launch the Solidarity Trial, an international clinical trial that aims to generate robust data from around the world to find the most effective treatments for COVID-19.

    March 19th 2020
    For the first time, China reports zero local infections, a milestone in the fight against the pandemic. Experts said the country would need to see at least 14 consecutive days without new infections for the outbreak to be considered over. 34 new cases were confirmed among people who had arrived in China from elsewhere.

    March 20th 2020
    The UK government orders all pubs, restaurants, gyms and other social venues across the country to close
    The chancellor announces the government will pay up to 80% of wages for workers at risk of being laid off

    uk lockdown tightens

    March 23rd 2020
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in a televised address to the nation, says that Britons should only go outside to buy food, to exercise once a day, or to go to work if they absolutely cannot work from home. Citizens will face police fines for failure to comply with these new measures.
    Worldwide figures stand at more than 270,000 cases and 11,000 deaths.

    March 24th 2020
    Tokyo Olympics likely to be postponed – according to a member of the International Olympic Committee, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics – set to begin in August – will be postponed. Australia and Canada have already announced that their athletes will not compete

    Trump::March 24: “We’re going to be opening relatively soon… I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.” He added in a subsequent interview: “Easter is a very special day for me… and you’ll have packed churches all over our country.”

    March 25th 2020
    Prince Charles tests positive for the coronavirus.
    In the US, negotiators strike a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package intended to assist businesses and millions of Americans amid the halt in the US economy. The bill includes $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000, $100 billion for health care providers, and $58 billion for the US airline industry. It would also include $2,400 per month for up to four months to the unemployed. $500 billion goes to industry loans that corporations, cities, and states can apply for.
    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown of the country’s 1.3 billion residents. India has only recorded 536 cases of COVID-19 so far.
    Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rails against coronavirus measures being taken in his country, as local officials take preparedness into their own hands.

    March 26th 2020
    G20 world leaders meet virtually to discuss the coronavirus crisis. King Salman of Saudi Arabia calls on the world’s richest economies to ‘extend a helping hand to developing countries’.
    Brits across the UK clap, cheer, and ring bells at 8pm to thank the NHS workers for their service in tackling the pandemic.
    UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveils a package of measures to help self-employed workers during the economic downturn, giving those earning less than £50,000 a taxable grant equal to 80 percent of their average profits.

    March 27th 2020
    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock test positive for the coronavirus
    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says that the coronavirus crisis has exposed the EU’s ‘weaknesses’.

    March 28th 2020
    European COmmission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU ‘looked into the abyss’ in the early days of the crisis but now it has the chance to reinvent itself.
    French President Emmanuel Macron issues a plea for European solidarity to fight the coronavirus crisis, saying ‘I don’t want a selfish and divided Europe’
    Belgium extend confinement measures until 19th April
    UK Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, announces he is self-isolating after experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus

    March 29th 2020
    The European Commission announces that it will revise its proposal for the EU’s next seven-year budget
    US announces social distancing measures to continue until 30th April, as the US records the highest number of coronavirus infections in the world, at more than 139,700 cases.

    March 30th 2020
    Hungarian Parliament passes a bill that gives PM Viktor Orban power to rule by decree, impose a state of emergency without a time limit, and suspend parliament.
    UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab announces the government is to spend £75 million on charter flights and airline tickets to repatriate up to 300,000 Britons stranded abroad as countries have closed their borders to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

    March 31st 2020
    Spain joins the US and Italy as one of the few countries to surpass China’s coronavirus case total, reporting 85,195 cases and 8,189 deaths.
    Ethiopia announces it has postponed its parliamentary and presidential elections, originally scheduled for August. The elections were to be a big test for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reformist measures.
    The White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020, if current social distancing trends hold.

    April 1st 2020
    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announces that the Commission will present an unemployment reinsurance scheme to ensure workers keep their jobs during the coronavirus crisis.
    Italy announces it will extend lockdown measures until 13th April. Health Minister Roberto Speranza says ‘data shows that we are on the right path and that the drastic decisions are bearing fruit’.
    The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) summit, due to be held in Glasgow in November, is postponed until 2021.

    April 2nd 2020
    The number of worldwide coronavirus cases passes one million.

        • And pretty sure g’runt did not read with comprehension any of your cites linked in your article.

          Good for you, Mr. Middleton, to not dignify that g’runt’s half-truths and sloppy reporting with a response. The glaring omissions and poor reasoning in his or her “comment” (cough) are a flashing neon sign saying: IGNORE THIS — IT IS MERELY DESIGNED-TO-DECEIVE, PRO-CHINA, PROPAGANDA. (See, e.g.,, https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-doctor-chinese-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-outbreak-december-2020-3 )

          • The comment struck me as an imposter. On several occasions, trolls have impersonated you and several other regular commentators, quite often in support of other trolls. As I said earlier, my apologies.

        • Since he was so happy to see the early carpet bombing of a post it must be g_half_runt’s mini-me: g_full_runt.

          • Impersonations. Thank you to those at WUWT, from Anthony to Charles The Moderator, to other mods, to David Middleton.
            After a couple of impersonations against me this last year, WUWT staff were promt, understanding and effective. Thank you.
            Commiserations to you, Chaamjamal. At first, it is not a nice feeling, but once nullified it is soon back to usual.
            You are in good hands at WUWT. Geoff S

          • How are those trolls getting the E-mail addresses of those persons they are “impersonating”?

            I thought E-mail addresses were protected …… and entered “screen-names” when posting are compared to the log-in data base.

            Of course, if Norton Virus “spam”, etc., pops-up on my WUWT screen noninfrequently …… there is a few “holes” in the server software.

    • ghalfrunt
      Since you seem to be an epidemiological expert perhaps you could explain these to us.

      https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117
      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
      https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/assetdocumentzwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf

      I live in Rockport Texas, the county judge (R )has closed the boat ramps, among other wide open spaces against the wishes of the Navigation District. We have two cases from outside. Perhaps you could explain that also since you seem to also be a policy expert.

      • The first was a small trial which showed blood plasma from recovered people may help. But it was small and the patients may have recovered anyway
        The second seemed to be saying that the virus was more common than only in people showing symptons
        The third was a broken link.

    • Every time someone points out the failures of China, our favorite troll trots out the same nonsense.
      As the fact changed, so did what Trump was saying at the time.
      Unlike the global warming crowd, when the facts changed, they changed their opinions. They didn’t change the facts.

      • (Re-posting this — the comment I “Replied” to about 10 minutes ago disappeared! — i.e., nothing for me to reply to anymore — shrug)

        And pretty sure g’runt did not read with comprehension any of your cites linked in your article.

        Good for you, Mr. Middleton, to not dignify that g’runt with a response. The glaring omissions and poor reasoning in his or her “comment” (cough) are a flashing neon sign saying: IGNORE THIS — IT IS MERELY DESIGNED-TO-DECEIVE, PRO-CHINA, PROPAGANDA. (See, e.g.,, https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-doctor-chinese-sounded-alarm-coronavirus-outbreak-december-2020-3 )

        ****************
        Given that ol’ g’runt was able to essentially hijack your post by getting all of that written lickety-split and posted first (the timing of g’runt’s comment is, really, a fortiorari evidence of an inside troll job — no WAY someone could have written that post after thoughtfully reading yours in the time available….) I have a feeling g’runt is one of the many alter-egos of a certain data-twister (oh, excuse me, “homogenizer using criging” or whatever…) who makes money via his business ventures in China. Just a guess… .

        ************
        Now, let’s see if this gets published….

        • Yes, I forgot that “kriging” is spelled with a “k.” It generally produces junk data, so, who cares. Just my pride showing (*blush*).

        • I first started this timeline on this post
          https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/14/did-chicom-19-come-from-a-red-chinese-lab/

          This comment was substantially the same as the one above.
          ghalfrunt April 18, 2020 at 4:58 am

          I note that no one disagrees with my time line. so I assume it is correct.
          It shows a lack of action of most leaders, despite the WHO reacting correctly to the early stages.

          There are a couple of times early on where China tried to hide the problem. But as it happens it would have made no difference since when the emergency was declared nothing was done.

          • The WHO used the uncertainty to hide the risk,
            BUT
            This is clear.
            When the risk WAS CLEAR, governments did nothing, again using the uncertainty to avoid swift decisive action.

            Imagine the WHO had declared a possible pandemic on Dec 31

            would that have stopped commenters here from downplaying the risk?
            Nope.
            They will continue to call this thing a flu until it takes them by the lungs

            Imagine the WHO had declared a possible pandemic on Jan 23 when china closed wuhan

            would that have stopped commenters here from downplaying the risk?
            Nope.
            They will continue to compare it to car accident deaths until it takes them by the lungs

            Heck even today when they see the body count they want to deny it or fix the blame
            on someone else

            A wise man once told me. Fix the problem, not the blame

          • We managed to avoid MERS and SARS1 in the USA.
            Can you really blame us for thinking we would miss out on this one as well?
            There was a lot of conflicting reports to interpret.
            Even when the WHO called a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ on Jan. 30, they included this:

            Let me be clear. This declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China. On the contrary, WHO continues to have the confidence in China’s capacity to control the outbreak. I’ll repeat this. Let me be clear. This declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China. On the contrary. WHO continues to have confidence in China’s capacity to control the outbreak. As you know, I was in China just a few days ago, where I met with President Xi Jinping. I left in absolutely no doubt about China’s commitment to transparency and to protecting the world’s people.

            That does not sound like this virus is on the loose, and it is coming your way. It sounds like their is a problem. Some cases are traveling out of China, but they are isolated. You should be able to contain the problem, because China has it much worse and they have the “capacity to control the outbreak”. Well if they can control an outbreak we should be able to control a few isolated cases.

          • No one is going to disagree ghalfrunt, Trump’s own words will be the story of this disastrous mishandling. The question I have is how can you possible manage to write a thousand words about Covid-19 in the US and not make a single mention of Trump.

          • Wrong I totally disagree with you Ghalfrut you have cherrypicked the WHO announcements just like they do … you conviently step over the 4th Feb one for example.

          • It’s not that your timeline is wrong, it’s that you have cherry picked only those comments that support the position you wish to defend.

            Beyond that, you seem to take it as a granted that anytime Trump changes his position it’s proof that he is being dishonest, when in fact it’s just Trump reacting to changing events.
            Unlike climate scientists, honest people change their opinion when the data changes.
            Climate scientists keep their opinions and change the data to match.

          • Like most socialists, Loydo, mosher and gfront demand perfection from those they disagree with.

            How many potential pandemics have there been in the last 50 years? How many of those turned out to be actual pandemics.

            The fact that governments took a wait and see attitude in the early days of this crisis is quite understandable.

          • Russ: “Even when the WHO called a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ on Jan. 30, they included this:

            WHO: “Let me be clear. This declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China. On the contrary, WHO continues to have the confidence in China’s capacity to control the outbreak. I’ll repeat this. Let me be clear. This declaration is not a vote of no confidence in China. On the contrary. WHO continues to have confidence in China’s capacity to control the outbreak. As you know, I was in China just a few days ago, where I met with President Xi Jinping. I left in absolutely no doubt about China’s commitment to transparency and to protecting the world’s people.

            Russ: “That does not sound like this virus is on the loose, and it is coming your way.”

            Good point, Russ, and it should be noted that even though the WHO was downplaying the threat from the Wuhan virus, and claiming China could control the virus, President Trump placed a travel ban on China, the day after this statement was made by the WHO.

            The WHO says the Wuhan virus is being controlled in China and there’s no need for others to worry, yet Trump puts a ban on travel, and some people claim Trump acted too late.

            Trump said when he approved the travel ban on China there wre 21 people in the room discussing whether to do it or not, and Trump said he was the only one in the room in favor of the travel ban. So Trump went against *all* advice, even from his own people, and placed a ban on travel from China.

            Trump was ahead of the curve.

            We need more timelines. We need timelines for Trump and what he did to ramp up defense against the Wuhan virus, and we need timelines for the Democrats and the Media (same thing) showing what they were doing at the time and what they were saying. That ought to be fun..

          • “Trump’s own words will be the story”

            Let me correct that for you, Loydo: Trump’s own words [in the proper context] will be the story

          • From our Supreme Leader of the WHO:

            1/30 – “WHO doesn’t recommend limiting trade and movement.”
            2/3 = “no need for measures that “unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade”
            2/29 – “WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.”

            As late as February 29, Tedros is still advising against restrictions on travel from countries with outbreaks. How do they expect to contain this if people are spreading it faster than you can identify infected people?
            And is there any better way to spread this disease than to sit in a crowded airplane for hours with infected passengers?
            Then when the plane lands you have newly infected people heading in different directions, and making connections to other planes?
            What is wrong with this guy? He has less common sense than a politician telling everyone to party in Chinatown!

          • Seems like a lot of side conversation here going on in the cheap seats. No one seems to be talking about the info published in this article under the heading “How Deadly is SARS-Cov-2?”
            The answer that immediately follows seems to be “no deadlier than the flu”.

          • I laid out too much troll food in the post… I can’t say that was unintentional… 😉

          • Mr. Middleton says he laid out too much troll food. What you lay out can’t explain that load loosed by Mr. frunt.

          • Tom, speaking of time lines, just a few days after Trump issued the ban on travel to China, Nancy Pelosi was urging people to get out and go to China Town. (Not exactly “social distancing”)

          • “Like most socialists, Loydo, mosher and gfront demand perfection from those they disagree with.

            How many potential pandemics have there been in the last 50 years? How many of those turned out to be actual pandemics.

            The fact that governments took a wait and see attitude in the early days of this crisis is quite understandable.”

            well you should at least get the fact that I am a libertarian.

            Demand perfection?
            Nope, I’ve argued over and over again that mistakes are inevitable.

            Wait and see?

            Actually I argued for a no regrets actions early on.

            you were the person who was not ready for action when there were 0 deaths and 68 cases
            You were the person who dismissed my concerns about testing by saying
            “mosher wont be happy until we are all tested weekly”

            wait and see is NOT a strategy for processes that grow exponentially

            Patton: “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.”

            wanna see the difference a few days makes?

            compare LA and SF

          • Stephen Mosher: ”
            would that have stopped commenters here from downplaying the risk?
            Nope.”

            Serious question: Do you think Covid 19, without a vaccine, will be worse than the flu globally, even though the Flu kills on average 500,000 annual with there being vaccines?

          • ChiCom-19, without a vaccine, is at least a little worse than influenza with a vaccine, probably 1.5x to 5x. Is that bad enough to destroy our economy? (Rhetorical question).

          • Hi David Middleton:
            responding to: “ChiCom-19, without a vaccine, is at least a little worse than influenza with a vaccine, probably 1.5x to 5x. Is that bad enough to destroy our economy? (Rhetorical question).”

            Of course not, we agree, the economy should not be destroyed while we hide from a bad cold virus.

            And also, I do not accept that we know the denominator yet, nor reasons for the skewed count.

            I have been been calculating the mortality rate almost every day, Deaths vs Total cases. It has ranged from as low as 1.1% to almost 10% in the US. The numbers are heavily skewed. Nothing is pure anymore. We should know how to read the data, but it is all speculation now.

          • “even though the Flu kills on average 500,000 annual with there being vaccines?”

            What do you believe is the influence of the flu vaccine on the death rate?

      • It would, however, be enormously beneficial if Trump could refrain from “shooting from the lip”! Though I suppose if he did then he wouldn’t be Trump!

        • Trump is a disrupter and a non-politician. I read once that Benjamin Franklin showed up in the French Court lacking a powdered wig. It actually worked to his favor among the dandies, accentuating the fact that he represented colonies.

          Trump’s rough edges are an integral part of his appeal. Watching his enemies clutch their pearls is a wonderful side benefit, but the real benefit is they continue to underestimate him (even as the greatly overestimate themselves). He’s a street fighter who refuses to back down from a fight.

          In the latest iteration of King Kong – made by the director of the LOTR series – there’s a scene where the blonde flees the great ape, only to run into a trio of T Rex’s. As they try to devour her, Kong comes to her rescue and starts kicking dino butt. The reality of the situation finally dawns on her, as she realizes who her true friend is. We know this because she backs away from the lizards until she’s under Kong’s shadow.

          The self-appointed elites ruining our country and society are the T-Rex’s. Trump is Kong. Despite his rough edges, I didn’t hesitate for a moment to gravitate toward him, nor have I doubted for a moment that I picked the right side in this titanic struggle.

    • USA CDC’s Health Action Network on 8 Jan. 2020 announces is “… monitoring … pneumonia of unknown etiology ….” This based on 59 cases Wuhan notified the WHO were from 12-29 Dec. 2019.

      “No deaths have been reported & no health care providers are known to be ill…. etiology & transmissibility yet to be determined … CDC recommends … cautious approach … personnel should use contact precautions & use an N95 … . Ffor patients admitted … contact & airborne precautions, in addition to standard precautions ….”

      • At the time there was a USA CDC team already in a different part of China. It subsequently requested permission from the ChiCom authorities to go to Wuhan for cooperating with the local personel.

        Those CDC personel were effectively denied authorization by the ChiCom apparatus & “stone-walled” about when they could get to participate in dealing with the novel virus outbreak. As I understand it, the USA CDC was never allowed into the Wuhan area to this day.

        There is a relatively recent treaty among many countries concerning unified efforts combatting infectious diseases. China, like the USA, is a signatory & it has been suggested China’s actions with this pandemic were in violation of certain accords.

        It is my understanding ChiCom authorities have also had some scientifically relevant things physically destroyed. I wonder if they just “… wiped, like with a cloth?”

    • yes,

      Hong Kong moved on Jan 3/4 to start testing incoming people from mainland.
      The moved to stop people from visiting nursing homes and hospitals.

      But you won’t get a single reader here to take some measure of responsibility.

      Mid Feb with 68 cases in the USA and the USA doing virtually no testing, I tried to explain this
      simple fact.

      The response was “there are zero deaths in the USA”
      the response was “mosher won’t be happy until everyone is tested”

      • Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore managed with similar info as the West. Holland, Sweden and UK gambled on “herd immunity” – but without having any vaccine= madness, while the US/New York was last to wake up : “experts” CDC and Fauci at fault more than Trump.

    • You neglected to mention the fact that the CCP shut down Wuhan completely, even welding the doors of apartment blocks shut, to prevent the virus getting to other parts of China, but allowed tens of thousands of infected people to use the international airport for a week to return to Northern Italy, Spain, and elsewhere. Funny, that

      • re: “and probably one they engineered themselves in a lab”

        Probable BS, as classified by actual virology (incl. Vincent Racaniello, Ph.D.) experts:

        “This is ridiculous” … “its a bat virus”
        From: TWiV 603: Cloudy with a chance of coronavirus
        Prof. Vincent Racaniello, Ph.D.
        https://youtu.be/UivuDoqoGNo?t=2677

      • re: “Now make sure to go take your bear bile.”

        Perhaps you, too, would benefit by know more about the field of virology and related research? The below is the first in a series of ~20 lectures on this subject. The lecturer is also the author of a number of textbooks on this subject.

        Intro lecture: “Virology Lectures 2020 #1: What is a Virus?”
        by Vincent Racaniello, Ph.D.

    • So GhalFrut look at your timeline and you said US/UK should have put lockdown on 31st Jan

      So 5 days later after calling 22 Countries Racist this is WHO briefing 4th Feb 2020
      https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-technical-briefing-on-2019-novel-coronavirus

      Second, we reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions inconsistent with the International Health Regulations.

      Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.

      So far, 22 countries have reported such restrictions to WHO.

      They are asking/pleading for countries specifically to not place travel bans on China

      So are they incompetent or corrupt because even according to you that is the two choices here?

      • When Trump shut down travel between the US and China, the same socialists who are now condemning him for not acting soon enough, were at the time condemning him for being a racist and over reacting.

        • weirdly on Feb 17 or so when I pointed out that the USA was doing hardly any testing
          you argued that I would not be happy until everyone was tested.

          That was when there were 0 deaths and 68 cases.

          Also, Trump did not shut down travel between China and the USA.

    • The year is 2020 …. but hindsight is definitely 50/50.

      All of this armchair quarterbacking is disingenuous. Ghalfrunt inserts “comments” from a hindsight perspective taking into account data that was not known at the time of decision. The US had a whopping 5 cases and Ghalfunt seems to think the US should have shut down all travel and put the whole nation on lockdown. That would have been a reckless response given the paucity of knowledge at the time.

      Ghalfrunt, …. I want to see your written recommendation on what we should have done on the date of the decision! Where is your written decision dated Jan 22, 23, and 29th, where you clearly show your superior decision making skills in the moment
      …. as opposed to a bunch of looking back and declaring what we should have done.

    • As always; peakprosperity and Monckton (nice leather). #masks4all. At a minimum the Michigan protest; not a single mask visible in the image. If you want to be responsible and go back to work, wear a mask (you may be a carrier) Get R0 lower than 1 and it’s done. The exponential curve compounds down as well as up so a 50% effective home made mask can help significantly. So PHU CDC and WHO. Die on the vine.

    • ghalfrunt

      For some context and perspective, the number of just US seasonal flu cases alone often surpasses one million.

      Yes, in retrospect, there are some things that could have been done better or in a more timely manner. However, I think that an important point is that the day after the WHO acknowledged (Jan. 30th) that it was a pandemic, Trump curtailed travel from China.

      A single sneeze does not mean that one is seriously ill. The problem with transmissible diseases is that in the early stages of exponential growth, it is difficult to know whether it is just a ‘sneeze’ or a serious warning. The real problem was/is that China was not being candid about what it knew and we didn’t suspect that COVID-19 had such a long symptom-free incubation period, during which time people were highly infectious. This disease it truly “novel” in the sense that there are so many who are asymptomatic, or only had mild symptoms during the usual flu season, thus hiding the risk of rapid expansion. If you are looking for a scapegoat, I suggest that you focus on China and the WHO!

      • De-fund WHO just reflexively. WHO only had 1 job and failed biggly (more at hugely). CDC can jump into that bucket also. In Jan. if you were believing China’s numbers while the CCP was shutting down a huge part of their economy; what were you thinking? And circulate this as long and often as you can:

        https://youtu.be/ch7_t2Ri2Zg

        A 6 week head start would have produced a way different result.

    • ghalfrunt

      Thanks for the excellent comment.

      I’m wondering how a person like Mr Middelton manages to feel ‘impersonated’.

      Many people ‘comment’ing on this blog can be incredibly insulting in comparison with ghalfrunt.

      His text is offensive, but reflects after all reality. A reality deliberately ignored by a vast majority of ConUSians still is a reality. Basta ya!

      J.-P. Dehottay, Germany

      • Reading comprehension was never your strong point bindi.
        1) Mr. Middleton never said he was the one being impresonated.
        2) It’s quite easy to lie with facts as gfront has demonstrated. You just cherry pick the facts that support your case and you don’t provide any of the context.

        But then being a global warming acolyte, it’s not surprising that you approve of well done propaganda.

  2. What would have happened if china had told the world that people were unwell in Wuhan with a new flu virus.
    Would the US have acted earlier?

    How do you know so much more than the virologists?

    • Would the world have acted differently had China told the truth about the extent of this disease and how easily transmittable it was?
      Would the world have acted differently had China admitted that they were already shutting down internal travel in order to stop the spread of this disease?

      Probably, however the fact still remains that your paymasters lied to the world and these lies cost people their lives.

      Lets not even get into the fact that it was Xi’s ego that caused this disease in the first place. He had to prove that China was capable of isolating and studying deadly diseases, just like the big boys. However, they couldn’t. They didn’t have the training, they didn’t have equipment and they didn’t have the intestinal fortitude to come clean when they screwed up.

    • What the world would have reacted to was if the Chinese Government had done what it should have done and that is banned all it’s people from international travel to protect the rest of the world.
      Even the Wuhan lock down was announced before it took place allowing 500,000 Wuhans to leave the area.

      • And the ChiComs allowed international travel from Wuhan after shutting down domestic travel.

    • “What would have happened if china had told the world that people were unwell in Wuhan with a new flu virus. Would the US have acted earlier?”

      I think there is no doubt the U.S. would have sent in its experts, including probably Dr. Fauci, and if giiven the right support, those experts would have characterized the virus and gotten that information out to the public much quicker than how it happened, with the Chinese leadership slow-walking and hiding the extent of the problem.

      So, if the U.S. and others could have sent in experts in December, we may have prevented a much wider spread of the disease, and indeed, might have had a chance to contain it to China. We would certainly have had a lot more information on which to base decisions.

    • g’frunt,

      Calling it an influenza outbreak was not possible at any point. Influenza tests are routinely done at hospitals during cold-flu season when patients present with appropriate symptoms at ERs, even in China. Influenza thus would NOT have been a plausible lie. First rule of good propaganda and cover-ups is the lie has to be outwardly plausible and not prone to easy debunking.

  3. Spectacular fracking “WHO-Tube”! Thanks! Saw them in Dallas in 1989. SRV opened. Honestly, at that particular gig SRV stole the show.

    Not so if they’d been the same guys here.

      • I admit, watching SRV take his guitar mid-phrase, toss it BEHIND his farging back and finish out the tune without missing a note was unbelievable. I’ll never forget it.

        Still, I’ll take The Who in their heyday for overall creative genius.

          • I guess I’m a purist. To me that’s like e.g., seeing Phil w/out Genesis. Which I did @ Starplex. He was good but . . .

            Meh.

  4. A German virologist Dr. Hendrik Streeck has studied a hard hit community.

    The general an infection level (current an infection or previously long gone through) was close to 15%. The mortality level (scenario fatality amount) centered on the overall variety of contaminated people in the community of Gangelt is approx. .37% with the preliminary info from this analyze. The lethality presently calculated by the Johns-Hopkins College in Germany is 1.98% and is 5 occasions higher. The mortality amount primarily based on the total population in Gangelt is currently .06%. link

    So, the infection rate was 15% and, as far as I can tell, mostly asymptomatic. The mortality rate of those infected was 0.37%. So, more like the flu than like SARS.

    People have now had a taste of what it’s like to shut down the economy for a mere few months. The Marxist CAGW alarmists would have us shut down the economy permanently. All but the densest politician should now realize what that entails. I hope that windmills and solar panels will become a much harder sell. I think we’re seeing signs of that as more and more people accept nuclear as an actual solution to the CO2 non problem.

    The government is throwing tons of money at coronavirus mitigation. That’s going to have a pretty big hangover. Again, a cold dose of reality.

  5. There is one good feature of this virus and that is the Atlantic ocean between US and UK.
    I feel for the Canadians !

    • As far as I can tell, the Canadians are in better shape than either the US or the UK.

      Taking an average of Canadian deaths over the last seven days (97) paints a more reassuring picture: per capita, we have one death for every four in the U.K., or one for every three in the U.S. link

      • The “Canadians are so much better off” ignores several things. First of all we have very limited testing. Testing in my home province was only extended beyond anyone arriving at an ER symptomatic and anyone with connections to an established positive case this past week! If you aren’t testing, cases are very low. We know the virus is far more widespread than that because half our deaths are coming from care homes with concentrations of the elderly in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. That means we have widespread community spread in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver but we simply aren’t testing. Even if you have symptoms you are not tested unless you have an established link to a previously tested positive patient and are simply told to self isolate at home. If you get sick enough to end up unable to breath in an ICU you will get tested. So our figures mean ZIP. We have a host of other problems as well. 100 health care workers in Winnipeg were sent home after being exposed because we had no protective equipment for them. Somehow all our national pandemic stockpile was allowed to dwindle to nothing and yet our glorious leader sent tonnes of our PPE to China as a donation. Doctors are also forbidden to use any treatment like antimalarial drug and antibiotics. They have had their licenses threatened if they dare to use anything “off label”. Canada is also a very large country and due to idiotic government regulations it is far harder to travel and move goods across provincial boundaries than across the border to the USA. This means the virus has not moved east-west very much. It has almost all come in via air travel. The country shut down as a whole so many provinces, such as Manitoba, shut down much earlier “on the curve” so we didn’t get the big rush. The shut down here is massive. We stopped all elective surgeries, cancer treatments and diagnostic testing. You can’t even get a dental appointment or take your dog to a vet. Everything has been converted to treat coronavirus patients. So yes we “look” good superficially but we are a big fat mess up here.

        • Oh and I forgot to mention that most deaths among the elderly are not treated if they have coronavirus or any other respiratory condition. Such people are simply given what is called “comfort care” and left to die. It has been decided it is better for them to not go to hospital since their death on a ventilator is just too awful. We have many stories in our press about the valiant self sacrificing elderly who give up their place on ventilator to make room for your people. We literally have care homes with fridges packed full of bodies who died from pneumonia and respiratory illness who were never tested. So I would estimate that since half our COVID deaths are among people from care homes for each one we test probably a half dozen were left to die with comfort care and were never tested.

      • It helps that Canadians have to hop in the truck and drive to borrow a cup of sugar. Ie., population density is not as big an issue.

  6. The more I observe this thing the more I’m becoming convinced that it’s a fairly mild illness, with some large portion of the morbidity and mortality being caused by iatrogenic factors. Change my mind.

      • One of those Italian reports a while back specified that at least 52% of deceased patients were on either ACE inhibitors or ARBs. That number is likely higher because those data were incomplete. I haven’t seen that data on reports since.

        • And as such, were they any less valuable to society or their families?
          I’m not sure about David’s projections of less than 2% mortality by arguing statistics that aren’t in the data. There could be 500% more infections than have been accounted for BUT those hypothetical cases haven’t been proven to exist, only guestimated (kinda like modeled).
          The only mortality rates that Can be calculated by he data is by looking at cases that have reached their conclusion.
          Italy has 181,228 cases with 108,000 active, 48,877 recovered and 24,114 succumbed.
          72,991 have been resolved in Italy with a current mortality rate of 33%

          Germany has 146,653 cases 95706 have been resolved with a 5% mortality rate

          Predicting the potential mortality rate by utilizing possible uncounted cases could only cause you to fool yourself, much like using climate model runs ad actual data

    • since you dont make policy, your opinion is meaningless
      no one is interested in changing your mind

      you should use your mind to change what policy makers think

      • No comment of yours has ever made me realize what a non-scientific, reprehensible person you really are. I had no idea. I’ve watched with bemusement as others raged against you, but now I know that you are the type of person who makes problems worse while offering solutions to them.

        Rather than no one being interested in changing my mind I’m quite certain that no one has the capacity to be able to change my mind. I would love to hear disputing opinions and counter-factual evidence (that’s why I said “change my mind”), but that’s impossible when people live in fear. When it comes to disease and death, people are controlled by fear, and fear shuts down the mind.

        • Steve was an English major… His lack of punctuation and capitalization are elements of style… 😉

          • Geology guy does not even get what is wrong with the Santa Clara tests.

            Here is the thing dave.

            Degrees don’t matter. Facts matter.

            Now, while I do not have a formal degree in Stats, I did have to actually learn it
            as a part of my graduate work. And I did have to learn it as part of my job training
            in Operations Research in the defense industry. They don’t put you in charge of test design for major weapon systems if you are a dummy. There the boss looks at your work and concludes whether you have the skills or not. As my boss used to joke during training
            “a degree merely proves you showed up for class and managed to pass a test, not that you understand how to do real world problem solving”
            Anyway, what is really embarrassing for you is that within 10 minutes of reading the
            Santa Clara study this stupid English major found issues that you could not.
            A couple of days later of course degreed statisticians found the same things.
            Things so simple that even a dumb old philosophy major could spot.
            you know philosophy right? That’s the discipline that teaches you to find holes
            in every argument. Any way it did not take a science degree to see the issues.
            A dumb English major saw them. Question is why didn’t a degreed geologist?
            maybe he just showed up for classes and passed a test.

            Maybe you don’t believe that the issues I raised with Santa Clara days ago, here on WUWT are real?
            maybe you ignored it because ( one ) of my degrees is in English ( studying the statistics of texts )?
            That’s a weird unscientific way to evaluate a study.

            Don’t believe me
            Then read Gelman

            Here is Gelman. Statistician

            https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/

            its math you may not understand, I’ll cut to the case

            ‘Summary

            I think the authors of the above-linked paper owe us all an apology. We wasted time and effort discussing this paper whose main selling point was some numbers that were essentially the product of a statistical error.”

          • Mosh,

            When I make the English major jabs, it is with the greatest respect and meant to be humorous. I also have a great deal of respect for your skills in statistics and coding. I have probably learned more from you and Nick Stokes than I have learned from everyone else here I have “locked horns with.”. The Santa Clara study, and other supporting studies, aren’t perfect. But, the Nature article says what it says.

          • Geology guy trusts a standford study that used an unapproved Chinese
            Serology test.

            The tests specificity and sensitivity are so bad that the results ( 50Positive)
            is basically meaningless.

  7. “Friday, April 17, 2020
    AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued three executive orders Friday that outline how to reopen the state amid the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    Bad news. Abbott did a cop out.Cop Out? He appointed a Task Force–>Plan in 10 days. Why Didn’t He Appoint It 10 Days Ago?

    https://texasscorecard.com/state/abbott-keeps-schools-closed-and-pretty-much-everything-else-too/

    The Stanford article tested approximately 3300 people and 50 tested positive. Unfortunately I have not seen (3 articles about it) what are the Sensitivity(+ in health) and Specificity(– with disease). If one assumes that the Specificity is 99%, than the False Positive Rate = 1%–>33 False Positive cases for disease. One can change the #s to see other results.

  8. I understand that Michigan has now mandated one-person per car? Some of this news might be the work of pranksters, but the irrationality of response can easily outpace anything the pranksters can think of. As the curve of deaths keeps flattening our officials can only think of further tightening down. It is the very definition of fanaticism.

    The home schooling has turned out to be a complete disaster around here. One cannot just toss complex systems together and expect them to work. So, I am homeschooling and the kids hate it, but I have my own work to get done too. Productivity is near zero. I get utterly idiotic missives from the University on a daily basis, including a really pathetic cry for attention from the diversity office. Each missive from upper management comes with deadlines for opening pushed further into the future — and no decision that I know of is based on anything but ad hoc reasoning, superstition, and numbers pulled from a hat.

    I have an acquaintance whose wife works at the Pentagon. From what she says he thinks the politicians are beginning to muster enough courage to tell the medical profession that there are other considerations to balance, but I see no evidence of such. The medical/media complex appear capable of thwarting any appearance of independence.

    I really dislike Ghalfrunt. He/she sounds exactly like the worst partisan, whiny, finger pointers around here.

    • … but the irrationality of response can easily outpace anything the pranksters can think of. As the curve of deaths keeps flattening our officials can only think of further tightening down.

      What ‘flattening’ might that be?

      USA’s active cases graph has neither peaked or flattened, the US is not past a peak, so can not possibly be through the worst of it.

      US Total Active Cases
      https://i.ibb.co/2dG4Bb5/Active-Cases-in-the-USA-19th-April.png

      US Total Deaths
      https://i.ibb.co/KztC3f5/Total-Deaths-in-the-USA-19th-April-2020-png.png

      Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

      The “we have flattened” meme is BS, it hasn’t happened as yet, plus it’s a process, not a point, it will take 2 to 3 weeks to flatten from now, and that just means new cases stopped growing faster than recoveries, i.e. isolation is working well enough for the spread to attenuate and go negative.

      But then the US have to clear about a million active cases over the next 4 weeks. So best case is about 6 weeks to reopen the more infected areas.

      • If you look closely at the active cases, the curve is beginning to flatten. The rise in active cases is a combination of new infections and newly identified infections due to increased testing.

        Deaths are a trailing indicator. Most ChiCom-19 deaths got into the checkout line a couple of weeks ago.

        The key metric is hospitalizations. The only hospitalization data that I have looked at is for Dallas County and this clearly peaked 2-3 weeks ago. Dallas and Harris (Houston) Counties are the hardest hit in Texas. So far, 0.1% of Dallas County has tested positive and 0.0% have died with ChiCom-19. The vast majority of fatalities were over 60, had at least 1 comorvidity and about 40% were in nursing homes.

        Fire Marshal Gump’s solution was to wreck the entire economy, make YUGE production of shutting down craft stores, particularly Hobby Lobby, and then order everyone to wear masks 3 weeks after the peak.


        • “If you look closely at the active cases, the curve is beginning to flatten. …”

          I can see that, and as I said, I can see its about 2 weeks away from peaking, if all goes well. Look carefully David, can you see that as well? People are talking like it already occurred, all clear! No, it hasn’t occurred. The US is at least 2 weeks from active cases peaking.


          “… The key metric is hospitalizations. The only hospitalization data that I have looked at is for Dallas County and this clearly peaked 2-3 weeks ago. Dallas and Harris (Houston) Counties are the hardest hit in Texas. …”

          A “key metric” for which you admit there’s no data? Really? Nope, not the key metric at all.

          But why even bring that into it? Whatever, it’s utter nonsense, because the “key metric” you need to know for reopening is how many people are community-spreading.

          Why do you apparently think that doesn’t matter?


          “… So far, 0.1% of Dallas County has tested positive and 0.0% have died with ChiCom-19. The vast majority of fatalities were over 60, had at least 1 comorvidity and about 40% were in nursing homes. …”

          What does that have to do with anything mentioned? This is you with a poor argument making lame excuses for your POV. Not interested, it’s got nothing to do with it.


          “… Fire Marshal Gump’s solution was to wreck the entire economy, make YUGE production of shutting down craft stores, particularly Hobby Lobby, and then order everyone to wear masks 3 weeks after the peak. …”

          “Fire Marshal Gump”? All you have is arrogance and smartassery? Really? Does such drivel negate the facts in your mind, when you want to avoid something?

          The USA’s highest new cases number was the 4th of April (34,196), while the 17th of April (3 days back) is was 32,165 new cases. So almost 2 weeks later the USA is still cranking out similar new cases numbers. Do you want to pretend that away too?

          This morning’s data:
          790,009 Total cases
          71,832 Recovered
          42,35 Deaths
          26,989 New cases (as I post this)

          Flattening? Yeah, in about 2 weeks … if all goes really well … like I said.

          As for deaths, yes, lagging data, I know that–who doesn’t? The US’s percent who have died so far has been climbing every day, it’s currently 5.36% of all cases have died. It was 2.61% on the 4th of April, when the new cases hit their highest so far. So it’s doubled in 15 days. Belgium’s is now at 14.58% of all known cases have died, and the UK is at 13.23% of all known cases have died. Italy is at 13.31% today, their highest so far.

          So keep BS-ing people with the utter hogwash that “hospitalizations” are a “key metric”. It just demonstrates you have no idea what you’re talking about. The death percent rises like that when hospitals are full, they can take no more patients, so they do not admit them, but instead they send them home, where the serious cases die in progressively larger (lagged) numbers, once hospitals have run out of capacity.

          No, the “key metric” is not hospitalization.

          The key metric for reopening is how many are still community-spreading the disease, and continually producing new cases, which prevents recovery and leads to more growth. And that’s what will happen if any communities with community-spreading open up t the peak of the active cases.

          Recovery is a phase the US has not even begun along yet. Maybe in 3 weeks the US begins to NET lower the almost 1 million active cases at that stage—if all goes ‘well’.

          In the meantime, spare me your ignorant conceit thanks.

          • re: ““Fire Marshal Gump”? All you have is arrogance and smartassery? Really? Does such drivel negate the facts in your mind, when you want to avoid something?”

            Fire Marshal Gump, actually Clay Jenkins, chief county commissioner of the so-called “commissioner’s court” (country commission) AND the reason he is often called “judge” was roundly and soundly thrashed by the other commissioners these past few weeks on account of his failure to consult with his fellow county commissioners on a number of issues, most notably, strict new isolation measures WITH penalties; the penalties were removed at the insistence of the other commissioners.

            ‘Fire Marshal Gump’, Clay Jenkins, could pass as he sits as the real-life double for Forrest Gump. How he got, and continues to be elected is known only to his faithful constituency.

            Clay Jenkins is also the individual who “charged” into an Ebola patients home/apartment without wearing any PPE (gloves, gown, mask) equipment back when Dallas was in the midst of that affair. Clay has not always exercised care of due discretion in his actions.

          • You can’t truly appreciate Gump by just reading his idiotic statements. He’s most defective when speaking on TV. I can only imagine how defective he is in person… 😎

          • WX,

            These tangentially United States are not a monolithic body. National data are useless because New York City skews everything.

            I do have detailed data for Dallas County. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions clearly peaked 2 weeks ago. Dallas County and probably the rest of Texas are well past the peak. Most states are probably past the peak.

          • Understand that David. I see no problem with parts of the US reopening if they have 2 weeks of no active cases within a locked-down area, region or State, and connecting those together again. What I object to are the generalized statements that the US has flattened the curve, they’re very misleading and tend to promote generalized bad policy propositions.

            I did not understand the Gump reference, so thank you (both) for the clarification, my bad in presuming this was a slight.

      • Apparently you cannot comprehend what a graph shows pretty clearly. Go have a look at the numbers per day back on Apr-16 and you will see the growth of deaths, which is a lagging indicator, grew most quickly 20 days in. It has been flat except for one day with a huge spike where NY suddenly found a large number of past deaths — i.e. an aberration in reporting.

        Says you-> “…it just means new cases stopped growing faster than recoveries…” This is the very definition of flattening isn’t it? Do you understand what you write?

        This business of having to “clear” a million active cases to open the more infected areas is exactly BS. The true number of active cases is completely unknown and a reopening cannot depend on such an unknown. Rather we need a robust plan for reopening, but no one seem capable of such at present — and mis-information repeated by parrots doesn’t aid the process.

        • I love how you had to resort to dishonestly quoting me there to try and sustain your flattening claim BS.

          What you say I said an meant:
          “Says you-> “…it just means new cases stopped growing faster than recoveries…” This is the very definition of flattening isn’t it? Do you understand what you write?”

          What I actually said:
          “The “we have flattened” meme is BS, it hasn’t happened as yet, plus it’s a process, not a point, it will take 2 to 3 weeks to flatten from now, and that just means new cases stopped growing faster than recoveries,”

          ” … it will take 2 to 3 weeks to flatten from now …”

          Why did you feel it necessary to try and lie about what I wrote? I plainly said 2 too 3 weeks to flatten FROM NOW, i.e. from when I wrote it, yesterday.

          Yes, I understand perfectly what I wrote, but why do you put so much effort into twisting it into something else?

          Try not to be so dishonest next time, “Kevin kilty”, why are you so interested in avoiding the facts via spinning out falsehoods.

      • Given the rate at which testing has been and continues to increase, I would not expect to see a flattening of that curve for a while yet. Regardless of the number of actual cases.

        • The testing detection is not the important criteria for reopening Mark, it’s how much actual community spreading is still producing new cases each day, within the community.

          Community spreading is what isolation ends, it buns itself out in under 6 weeks via a lack of re-transmissions. If you reopen with community spreading still occurring, due to an insufficient community isolation, you’re right back where you started a month later.

          Community spreading = No recovery

          Testing only detects, but it can’t stop anything, while isolation stops the growth and ends it. if that occurs you don’t even need to test to know the virus is gone, people will completely stop presenting to doctors with the disease.

      • Can’t use the number of deaths either. Not with the way they keep changing the definition of a COVID19 death and with an unknown number of uncounted deaths.

        Everything is in flux, all numbers should be taken with a sizable grain of salt for the foreseeable future.

        • No Mark, this is the data we have, it is the best there is. What would you do, make up a preferred dataset? Ignore all data? Not going to happen. Getting precious about the arguable quality of the data is to walk off the field with your bat and ball. There is a lot to be learned, and plenty of problems with it, but I’ll take primary data over reprocessed ‘data’ any day.

          All I want to know is did the person who died have an active symptomatic case of COVID-19 when they died? The finer points can be figured out in retrospect.

    • Kevin
      Speaking from personal past experience, I think that academia exemplifies the consequences of the Peter Principle. Those who were not good teachers, became administrators with better pay. Typically, they just showed up and kept their chairs warm between meetings. Now that there is an unprecedented emergency, they are key to the survival of the institutions. We will find out if they have the “right stuff” and can bring the capsule back safely, or through their incompetence, allow it to crash and burn. Academia may never be the same — thankfully!

  9. “The case fatality rate for influenza pandemics is about 0.1-0.2%.”

    Those percentages are reduced with the help of developed and distributed vaccines. What would the death rate of the common flu be without these preventative shots? Doesn’t seem like a proper comparison.

  10. Except for the top ten:
    State Deaths Share
    New York 17,671 43.5%
    New Jersey 4,202 10.4%
    Michigan 2,391 5.9%
    Massachusetts 1,706 4.2%
    Louisiana 1,296 3.2%
    Illinois 1,290 3.2%
    Connecticut 1,127 2.8%
    Pennsylvania 1,112 2.7%
    California 1,072 2.6%
    and
    Florida 791 1.9%

    the US death rate would be much like the flu.

    Notice what they have in common.

    They are all BLUE!!!

    • Louisiana and Pennsylvania are only partially blue. Florida is red. Otherwise, good point.

        • With a few exceptions, most of these are in high-density cities.
          Most of the others can be traced to specific persons who traveled outside the US.

        • But, is it a problem because they are blue, or is it that they are blue because they are high-density urban areas and that is the reason they are blue?

    • They also have large urban environments with mass transit, and crowded work environments due to high cost of retail and office space.
      Which means people are practicing social proximity which is a virus’s best friend.
      People in the suburban and urban environments are not living in those conditions, yet are treated as if they were.
      Identify the high risk people and keep them isolated. Identify those at high risk of death and keep them isolated.
      Take precautions where necessary and then let the rest of us return to our lives.
      There is no Land of the Free, unless we are the Home of the Brave.

      • We have international airports all over the country. The vast majority of which managed to avoid New York style mass break outs. Why is that?

        • It is my understanding that NYC has a very large Chinese community. If a significant number of that community traveled to China for the Chinese lunar new year (Jan. 25), they may have returned with the virus and passed it among the community before the seriousness of the situation was known.

          (This is just speculation on my part, perhaps someone can confirm.)

  11. It’s clear that this Chinese lab searching for deadly pathogens was funded by the US ‘government’.

    ‘In 2009 the U.S. government launched a program to hunt for unknown viruses that can cross from animals to humans and cause pandemics. The project, called PREDICT, was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, and it worked with teams in 31 countries, including China.

    Indeed, in September 2019, just months before the COVID-19 pandemic began, USAID announced it would end funding for PREDICT.

    EcoHealth researchers and their partners, including a team at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, had identified numerous SARS-related coronaviruses in bats and were following up with laboratory experiments on several of them. But, he adds, how and where the SARS-CoV-2 spillover occurred is not known for certain.

    There was an early suspicion that the initial outbreak could have started at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, which was closed on January 1. But “we don’t know if the spillover happened outside the market and then began spreading after it was brought there,” Olival says. It is also unclear if there was an intermediate animal host between the disease-carrying bats and humans.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-coronavirus-slipped-past-disease-detectives

      • LOL !

        This was an American operation. The Chinese originally blamed American soldiers for spreading an engineered virus at the Wuhan games. The likely truth is that they are tied together in this just as tightly as their two (very free market) economies.

          • You sound like the Japanese guy who stayed on duty on a Phillipines island 29 years after WWII had ended. McCarthy died. The cold war is over. Communism has gone in all but name.

            Nixon and Kissinger created the new China along with the banks. China is not a communist country. It has a free market system with a totalitarian government.

            China’s The Most Viciously Free Market Economy On The Planet Right Now

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/08/19/chinas-the-most-viciously-free-market-economy-on-the-planet-right-now/#21c23e8b659e

          • You sound like the Japanese guy who stayed on duty on a Phillipines island 29 years after WWII had ended…

            An awesome Gilligan’s Island episode… 👍👍

            Ya got anything other than red herring and straw men?

          • #FeelTheBern

            Communism/Socialism (two great tastes that kill great together)/Fascism has never been stronger in the American Left and our vaunted institutions of indoctrination.

            “Free Market” China is my favorite myth. Tell that to all of the government equity in these “private” enterprises. There is a word for nominal private ownership in an authoritarian state. Starts with ‘f.’ You know, the bad word that all of the actual fascists like to call the real free marketeers in here in the US.

            Worstall can be amusing at times, but he’s got his own blinders. For example he still thinks solar is cost competitive and he’s sure there’s going to be a Scandium fuel cell breakthrough real soon now.

          • It has a free market system with a totalitarian government.

            And by “free market” you mean until it isn’t, e.g., food:

            “‘China has a price control mechanism on necessities to slow down food price increase, and there are government inventories that could soothe food price inflation,’ Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING, told CNBC via email.”

            https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/09/chinas-surging-food-prices-wont-weaken-its-hand-in-the-trade-war.html

            From your cited article (emphasis added):

            And in China you can change what you’re doing and how you’re doing it at something close to lightning speed compared to Europe or the US. And that’s the sense in which I say that it’s a viciously free market place.

            So you’d argue that the definition of “free market” is the speed with which you can enter a market, never mind what happens once you get there?

            E.g., I can enter the food market in China in a matter of months, but then when prices go above a certain threshold the government begins to set those prices for me as well as adding or taking away from production inventories as they deem necessary.

            That’s your idea of a free market? Because I don’t think that’s what Worrall was saying at all there buddy.

          • Anyone who believes that communism is all but gone is either a communist or so delusional that they might as well be a communist.

          • I’ve always loved the communists declare that anything that isn’t pure communism is some form of capitalism. Or in this case “free market”.

    • US and Chinese billionaires are also in bed together; Bloomberg was publicly defending Xi.
      Makes sense for the 0.01%: ever higher stock prices for Apple, Amazon, Walmart & all other MNCs producing in China, even now, during covid19. They love QE, a Japanese invention.
      US version: bail out the biggest failed companies and shut out 97% of normal people from credit.

    • That particular lab was paid for by the French, but don’t let reality get in the way of a good anti-US rant.

      • Do explain why these such US mayors are up in stock prices now while unemployment is at an all time high plus trade at near zero…

        My rant was not anti US, just anti racketeering billionaires of any nationality: these guys live in the Caribbean, they are are Globalists for endless self profit, bribing the Hill and FED.
        That Wuhan P4 lab had a lot of US assistance, check with Fauci.

  12. The virus du jour is SARS. Or at least, a SARS.

    To be precise, it’s SARS-CoV-2.

    The old SARS is now known to virologists as SARS-CoV-1.

    No person has come down with the old SARS since ’04, so there’s no real need to differentiate a -1 from a -2, but Wuhan SARS would do fine.

    COVID is a WHO construct meant to blur the relationship of the virus to its place of birth,

    • Why not use the traditional method of labeling virus’ by their geographic origin?
      i.e., “Wuhan Virus” or “China Virus”
      Linking the Coronavirus to China Is ‘Racist’? Numerous Diseases Have Been Named For Places
      Spanish Flu: An H1N1 flu virus which spread worldwide in 1918-1919, killing an estimated 50 million people. It’s not known exactly where it originated, but Spanish media were first to report on it, and the Spanish king contracted it, so the name was coined and stuck.

      Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS): A coronavirus outbreak, first reported in Saudi Arabia, in 2012-13.

      Ebola: a rare and deadly disease named for a river in Zaire, now DRC, in the 1970s.

      Guinea Worm: Known for centuries under various names, but named for the Gulf of Guinea, West Africa in the 17th century.

      West Nile virus: A mosquito-borne virus, named for West Nile region of Uganda where it was first isolated in the 1930s.

      German Measles: Rubella, named not for its origin, but because German physicians were first to identify it in the 19th century.

      Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever: Emerged in Omsk, Russia in the 1940s.

      Marburg virus: An Ebola-type hemorrhagic virus named for a town in Germany where an outbreak occurred in a lab in the 1960s.

      Lassa fever: A hemorrhagic fever named for a town in Nigeria where it was identified in the 1960s.

      St. Louis Encephalitis: Named for St. Louis, Missouri, where an epidemic emerged in the 1930s.

      La Crosse Encephalitis: Named for La Crosse, Wisconsin, in the 1960s.

      Hantavirus: Linked to rodents, some strains can be lethal to humans. Named for the Hantan river in South Korea, where it was isolated in the 1970s.

      Ross River Fever: A flu-like disease traced to Ross River, Australia, in the 1920s.

      Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever: A tick-borne infection named for the Rocky Mountains, since the 1920s.

      Lyme Disease: Named for Lyme, Conn., the location of a 1970s outbreak.

      • If ChiCom-19 carries over into Lyme disease season… People could get Corona with Lyme…😎

        • NICE ! ! !

          I’ll go for a Corona with lime ( .. . the beer, and NOT the ‘other’ spelling of ‘lime’.

          Thanks David,

          Martin

      • The Spanish Flu didn’t come from Spain.
        It got that name because Spain wasn’t involved in WWI so Spanish papers were the only ones actually covering that pandemic.

    • “No person has come down with the old SARS since ’04”

      And how is this known? Do they test everyone in the world when they come down with a fever and cough?

    • “COVID is a WHO construct meant to blur the relationship of the virus to its place of birth,”

      Yes, it’s propaganda.

  13. and again ..

    Dr. Anthony Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) actually funded a study on Bat Coronavirus, which was a project that included scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Chinese lab at the center of controversy over their bat research. That study confirmed in 2018 that humans have died from coronavirus.

    The work was a collaboration among scientists from EcoHealth Alliance, Duke-NUS Medical School, Wuhan Institute of Virology and other organizations, and was funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health. The research is published in the journal Nature. The researchers say the finding is an important reminder that identifying new viruses in animals and quickly determining their potential to infect people is a key way to reduce global health threats.”

    https://nationalfile.com/faucis-niaid-funded-wuhan-lab-scientists-to-research-bat-coronavirus/

  14. For detailed compilation of evidence on the China Virus from Wuhan aka COVID-19 causing SARS-CoV-2
    (too dangerous for politically correct Jack on Twitter) see: ZeroHedge
    https://www.ZeroHedge.com
    E.g. a search for Wuhan December 2019
    8 Doctors were silenced in December
    China Inexcusably Hid Information About Coronavirus And Should Admit Their Wrongdoing
    “Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

    Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

    Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

    Dec. 30: Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
    Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward. Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.

    Dec. 31: Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus’ spread. China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.”

    “Patient Zero” may have worked at the Wuhan Bio-Lab

    WeChat was abuzz with phrases relating to the new virus/pneumonia in early December etc.
    Wuhan WeChat December Sars Pneumonia

    Chinese Bioethicists: Silencing Doctor Impeded Early Control of Coronavirus

  15. Covid19 has already taken more Americans than the troops killed in the Korean War.
    Sometime next week it will be more than Vietnam.
    And this could have been avoided if we didnt have an idiot in the WH, and handled the crisis like S. Korean or Taiwan, hit a month before us.

    • All of this could have been avoided if we didn’t have idiots and Democrats, but I repeat myself, advocating for open borders with 3rd world countries and packing Americans together like rats, i.e. NYC. Take away NYC and the US looks pretty damn good.

    • Get it in Perspective: Willis Eschenbach graphs 2020/04/19 shows US deaths from the China / Wuhan Virus COVID-19 at
      0.019% of US population are still far LOWER than the
      0.07% for the 1958 Asian Flu and
      0.05% of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu.

      Ths high fatality rate is particulary due to US FDA & Doctors REFUSING to immediately use the most effective treatment of Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc within 2-4 days (Not Trump). Still waiting for definitive proof by SLOW large clinical studies from fear of medical malpractice accusations and lawsuits.
      >60 Doctors now recommend:
      Singer, Ben Kaplan et al. Immediate Treatment for Early Stage SARS-CoV-2 Infections Recommended To Be Implemented Nationally Starting Now, April 2020
      https://coda.io/@covid-19-initiative/immediate-treatment-early-stage-sars-cov-2

      • Get it in Perspective: Right. I agree.
        We are losing more Americans per day than we did in WWII, which was a little under 300/day.
        Those are the freaking numbers, baby.
        So how you doing with that “Perspective” thing.

        • Over 7,000 Americans die on a typical day. There’s no statistically significant difference in the death rate now than before ChiCon-19.

          • Nobody should ever die, dammit. It’s those Republicans dismissing the fate of us old folks with their hard-hearted claims that we can’t go on forever, when we all know that it’s a wrongful death every dang time. I just ain’t gonna stand for it no more I tell ya, so make that tiresome virus go away and pass me one of them donuts. And you can bet that if I can’t take it with me, I ain’t goin’!

        • So US reports 1997 Coronavirus deaths in last 24 hours. So you are saying that the difference between 7000 and 8997 is not significant.

          I don’t think so, babe.

    • How can anybody still deny the Russians have such fablulous compromising leverage over The Donald that he is absolutely doing Rumple-putin’s bidding to destroy Amer’-ika & blame it on the Bossa-nova virus? Thank goodness for the loyal opposition’s patriotic dissent! \

    • You are essentially arguing that the US should shut down it’s economy for a month or so everytime a new disease appears anywhere in the world.

      Only those who’s hatred of the Orange man has completely fried their brains would take such a position.

      • The odds of me dying in an automobile accident have dropped pretty close to zero-point-zero since late March… 😉

    • trafamadore
      You said, “Covid19 has already taken more Americans than the troops killed in the Korean War.” What is the point you are trying to make? “Orange man bad!”? There are a similar number killed in automobile accidents every year! We have had much larger losses of lives from seasonal flu in the past, when nothing extraordinary was done to address the problem.

      You strike me as the sort of person who would grasp at any excuse to denigrate the president, such as when he is deferring to the WHO or medical advisors.

    • “And this could have been avoided if we didnt have an idiot in the WH, and handled the crisis like S. Korean or Taiwan, hit a month before us.”

      Trump acted quicker than anyone in the Western World, that’s for sure. Let’s go back and look at what the Democrats were saying abou the Wuhan virus when Trump stopped all air travel from China on January 31, 2020. They were scoffing at Trump and his concerns about the virus and werecalling him a racist for stopping the flights.

      Taiwan is a special case. They are intimately aware of everything going on in China, and they do not trust a thing Chinese leaders say. They have had experience with unknown viruses coming out of China in the past like SARS. SARS, btw, did not turn out to be a pandemic, which might have lulled the rest of the world into not taking the Wuhan virus as seriously as they should..

      South Korea is also a special case because they also have had to deal with unknown viruses coming out of China in the recent past, so they are on the lookout for such things. The whole world will be on the lookout for such things in the future.

  16. While it was the CCP that ignored the early warnings and retaliated against the doctors who wouldn’t STFU the ones that did that got fired in February. Both the city and province bosses were fired (maybe literally, who knows) and Xi put people he could trust in charge.

    https://www.economist.com/china/2020/02/13/xi-jinping-sends-in-the-hard-men-to-deal-with-the-wuhan-virus

    Better late than never and the next time there is a serious problem all the city and provincial officials will follow the protocol set up after the first SARS outbreak which both officials refused to follow.

  17. I remember Rud Istvan’s first post on the virus, along with many things that were linked to at the time – social media posts from virologists in the East, odd snippets from doctors in China, doctors that seem to have done a Kilroy since.

    Put a thousand CCP spin/bots in a room, with as many keyboards… they ain’t going to wipe this away. Not with anyone they don’t pay to pretend to forget about it.

    Only one point, but google the WSJ article of within the last week or so, regarding how favorable the people of India are feeling about the Chinese government at the moment. (Spoiler, they’re not as PC as Westerner’s are being told they must be.)

    Will admit I’ve only a dim understanding of the concept of ‘face’ but I do comprehend that the loss of it is a bad thing for a government that isn’t beloved by it’s subjects. Nor, by it’s neighbors.

  18. How do we know that a lock-down prevents propagation? If it did, any country with a lock-down should have had a significant step down in the number of deaths around 19 days (average 5 days to first symptoms, 14 days to eventual death) after the first day of the lock-down. This did not happen.

    • Yep. The Trolletariat can’t get past my use of ChiCom and my dissing the WHO long enough to realize”herd immunity” already appears to be fairly widespread.

    • Michael – I think you are being a bit optimistic with 19 days – deaths seem to be more strung out, more like up to 6 weeks after infection. In any case, looking at daily new cases Australia (and I think New Zealand too) it seems lockdown can be effective in stopping community spread. Australia is doing a lot of targeted testing, but no community testing to speak of, so no measure of what percentage of the population has antibodies but no symptoms. New Zealand seems to think they can eliminate the virus – but then what are they going to do? Stay in quarantine forever? Anyway, given the proper circumstances a lockdown can stop community spread – but at what cost?

      https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_16.pdf

    • Michael,
      Have you seen the statistics from NZ. It is clear that the lockdown there is working and hopefully in a couple of weeks they will have zero active cases. The also entered lockdown when there were about
      200 cases in the country and at the moment community transmission was first detected. Their motto
      was ‘go early and go hard’ and it appears to be working.

      • This is exactly the point: the lack of a significant step drop after around 19 days might indicate that the lock-down is not effective since we still have a kind of a bell curve. It seems counter-intuitive but it could be explained if the contamination is much more wide spread and the effects (symptoms and eventual death) proportionally much less than has been figured out so far.

        • “the lack of a significant step drop after around 19 days might indicate that the lock-down is not effective”
          Then what was effective? Australia and NZ both started on the exponential upswing. They locked down early, in stages. The rise continued for a while; Australia had some days with over 400 new cases. But then it collapsed. Yesterday was 13 new cases, and 6 of those were in a known rural cluster in Tasmania. The plot of Johns Hopkins data is here (from the utility here). There are nowhere near enough cases for herd immunity.

          • So how do you explain the lack of a significant down-step in the graph? The lock-down was abrupt and this abruptness is not reflected in the death graph. The graphs show a “normal” curve, as with a regular flu without a country-wide lock-down.

          • The length of time between infection and first symptoms vary tremendously from person to person. Length of time to get sick enough to go to an ER is even more variable.

          • MarkW

            Agreed, and that’s why one uses averages to look for statistically significant correlations. In this case, the numbers of deaths don’t seem to be related to the lock-downs. So maybe lock-downs are not as effective as some people like to believe and the diminution of symptoms and deaths might due to something else which won’t be found if we are obnubilated by the lock-down “efficiency”. A bit like CO2 and climate change…. just saying.

  19. Seventy comments… And not a single member of the Trolletariat has addressed the subject of the post… Priceless!

    Obviously, Sgt. Muldoon is very effective!

    • OK David – you are wrong about ‘Fooled Again’: The Who also did a great cover of ‘Summertime Blues’

      • I also like like Baba O’Reilly… But needed a clever segue to work the song in… 😎

  20. “The case fatality rate for influenza pandemics is about 0.1-0.2%. Yes, the Nature article babbles a lot about “experts” raising “concerns about the reliability of antibody kits”… “Experts” always raise concerns about anything that dilutes the power of their “expertise.”

    In the meantime hostage crisis protests are spreading across America…”

    the Santa Clara test is flawed

    1. Recruitment bias
    2. the number of positives (50) is consistent with ZERO, when you look at the false positive rate.
    3. IT IS NOT ABOUT THE DEATH RATE.

    Its not about the deaths.
    Its about overwhelming your health system
    Its about having your police force on the sidelines from being sick

    the death rate will merely help you plan for body bags

    • Steve, how about the Massachusets random tests:

      “Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.”

      ( . .the above is taken from the article at this link:
      https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

      Are the health systems really being ‘overwhelmed’ . . ? Maybe New York . . but not much beyond that that I have read about . . . hey, please correct me if I am wrong . . .

      • Martin,
        The NZ government has been conducting random tests for COVID-19 and have found zero
        additional cases. Which suggests that claims that the virus is widespread in the population is at the
        very least not the case in NZ.

        • South Korea hasn’t done random testing yet but it would be interesting to see the undetected spread there. Cannot be that different from discovered cases otherwise containment policy wouldn’t work.

          CFR still around 2% which a lot of people don’t believe could be real.

          I am not so positive. Numbers from Singapore, Austria and Germany are at/above that range and among the most testing countries. Germany doesn’t even test dead people with pneumonia post mortem or people dying in nursing homes. And they are not counted as COVID-19 on their death certificate either.

          But anyway, would really like to have the age distribution data of infected people and co-morbidities for South Korea.

          From this video one gets the information that a lot of cases are young people because they don’t practice social distancing that strictly.

        • You are confusing PCR testing for the presence of virus shedding (evidence of an active infection) with antibody testing for immunity to a past infection.

          It takes about 10 days for IgG (gamma globulin) specific to pathogen to begin to appear in the blood after the symptoms appear in an infected host. IgG levels usually peak around days 28-40, where they then will slowly taper down for months to years depending on the age, level of injection, and many other factors we don’t understand fully. Within 4 to 6 days of symptomatic infection (when you first feel sick ) lower affinity IgM antibodies to the virus begin to appear in the blood. But IgM antibodies have come from B cells that have NOT gone through class switching (from IgM/D production to high affinity IgG /IgA/IgE antibody production) and affinity maturation (affinity maturation is positive selection process for B-cells that make adjustments to the amino acids in the variable regions of their contact points to the antigen on the virus, and higher bind leads to positive selection, lower binding leads to negative selection (by neglect) and death of that B cell), which is a key process in the development of effective, long lived antibody production.

    • Health system far from overwhelmed… But, just like Gorebal Warming, the overwhelming is just around the corner, just over the horizon, somewhere over the rainbow…

    • I have got to agree with Steven on this one. The word Novel seems to pass right by everyone, without the slightest sign that they know what that means.
      We have no immunity to this virus, unless you already had it this year. Many who are asymptomatic will think they do, until they inadvertently pass it to a vulnerable person at home or work.
      Immunity is what causes the flu season to last 6 months instead of everyone gets sick in 2 months and it is over. It means meany people are exposed and they do not get sick, and they do not spread the disease.
      This is a different beast, and a dangerous one. The lock down kept it from raging, but that does not mean it wouldn’t have raged if we did nothing. It passes very efficiently in crowded closed spaces.
      The fatality rate would climb significantly if the hospitals are over whelmed. And that is the most likely outcome if we did nothing. Everyone saw what happened to NYC. Part of that was an unawareness of the problem, until it had spread out of containment. Part of it is the urban environment. Part of it is the contagion factor of this virus.
      We have to be aware of the problem. We have to prepare to block the spread when in urban environment. And we have to live with a certain amount of people sick or quarantined.
      But we can’t wait much longer to get back to work. We just have to outsmart a brainless virus. It is relentless, but we have intellectual superiority. Lets try to play to our strength.

      • “The fatality rate would climb significantly if the hospitals are over whelmed”

        In one sense, it’s just the opposite. When ICUs are overwhelmed and can’t intubate everyone, they look for alternate solutions, like high flow nasal cannula. In hospitals where alternatives to intubation are practiced, deaths drop. One hospital in Italy that did so had 0% mortality, whereas a nearby hospital that stuck with the high-PEEP respirator protocol had a 60% mortality. Respirators kill patients who are misdiagnosed.

        The surest way to increase #COVID19 mortality is liberal use of intubation and mechanical ventilation.

        https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1250037261024059394

      • “The fatality rate would climb significantly if the hospitals are over whelmed”

        In one sense, it’s just the opposite. When ICUs are overwhelmed and can’t intubate everyone, they look for alternate solutions, like high flow nasal cannula. In hospitals where alternatives to intubation are practiced, deaths drop. One hospital in Italy that did so had 0% mortality, whereas a nearby hospital that stuck with the high-PEEP respirator protocol had a 60% mortality. Respirators ki!ll patients who are misdiagnosed.

        The surest way to increase #COVID19 mortality is liberal use of intubation and mechanical ventilation.

        https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1250037261024059394

    • Brother Mosher,

      Recruitment Bias: that could go either way, this were all people who are up and around. We do not know if they were allowed the answer to their Covid-19 status. Ionnadis was on Fox tonight, quite convincing, that the virus is very dangerous to those with co-morbidities, not so bad for the rest of us, and that the awful things that happen when someone loses their job, as in 22 million of my closest friend so far, will turn out to be far worse.

  21. David,
    In the first half of your article you blame China for lying about severity of the disease and claim that
    if they had cried wolf earlier then lives would have been saved. Then you claim that COVID-19 is not
    as fatal as the flu and therefore the lockdown should end. But if it is not that deadly and the lockdown is not
    having any effect (Willis for example is claiming it isn’t saving any lives) then it is hard to see what difference
    any of China’s activities had.

    Incidently as for the claims that COVID-19 is spreading undetected through the community that at least
    seems to be untrue in some countries. NZ for example has been doing random community test and has found
    zero additional cases.

    • China did lie and people did die. The fact that we overestimated the lethality of ChiCom-19 and unnecessarily put >20 million people out of work, doesn’t alter the fact that ALL of this is Red China’s fault (with a lot of help from the lamestream media and Fire Marshal Gumps of America).

      • David,
        Just exactly what would you have done differently that would have saved peoples lives
        other than entering lockdown earlier? Either lockdown is effective and it is saving peoples lives or China’s actions didn’t actually change anything.

        • I would have done what Sweden did. Social distancing where practical, protecting the most vulnerable and testing. Businesses that could have remained open with social distancing measures, like we are doing in grocery stores, should have been allowed to remain open.

        • A good start would have been if China stopped international travel when they stopped their domestic travel. That alone would have helped in preventing much of the spread to the rest of the world.

  22. My very first judgment about this whole coronavirus crisis was, “I’m not convinced that it is the crisis it’s being made out to be, and the reaction that I am seeing is nothing short of hysterical, fear driven dictatorship.”

    Now after many weeks, having seen all the further information, reactions, data, graphs, and so forth, I have to say that my current judgment is … “I’m not convinced that this is the crisis it’s been made out to be, and ….. (you finish the sentence).”

    In North Carolina, on Jan 11, 2020, unemployment claims were at the highest that they would be for the next ten weeks, ……….. UNTIL schools were closed, along with bars and restaurants, between March 14 and March 21, at which point those claims had jumped from their highest during all that previous time (4,620) to over twenty times as many claims (94,083) … all in just one week. And then, in the following week, when more closings and a stay-at-home order came down the pipes, that number of claims almost DOUBLED again (to 172,145):

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/bz8kii22f9t5489/COVID-19_NC-UnemploymentVsDeath.png

    During the one week, when unemployment claims multiplied TWENTY TIMES their previous ten-week high, there were zero COVID-19 (attributed) deaths. During the next week, when unemployment claims almost doubled their twenty-time high, COVID-19 (attributed) deaths, during that week, amounted to 3 (three — comes after one and two).

    As of this writing, the current COVID-19 (attributed) deaths total stands at 172 (one hundred, seventy-two).

    In previous rants, I have shown, within the context of this exact time period, how many smoking deaths could be attributed to the individual decision to smoke, a decision most willingly allowed by a government that endorses businesses that enable this individual choice. Yet, 172 lost lives attributed to COVID-19 is enough to skyrocket unemployment beyond any previously conceivable number, while the thousands upon thousands of smoking-attributed deaths during the same time have zero weight in causing such a phenomenon.

    How is this not the most irrational reaction to death in the entire history of the human race?

    • NC applied for some kind of emergency morgue assistance from FEMA weeks ago. Sounds dreadful. I checked out their mortality number at that time and there were 2 deaths. The overreaction is the disease.

  23. Lock downs do not suppress ‘essential services’….. Hmmmm.
    #FreedomIsEssential
    #WorkIsEssential
    #PrivateBusinessIsEssential
    #PaychecksAreEssential
    #SocialismIsNotEssential
    #FascismIsNotEssential
    #DictatorialGovernorsAreNotEssential
    #BankruptingTheUSTreasuryIsNotEssential

  24. Hello, trafamadore. Comparisons of the death tolls between the Korean and Vietnam Wars and COVID-19 ignore the ages of the victims of war and disease. The American dead in those wars were almost all young men. The dead in the COVID-19 pandemic have a median age of 80. Also, deaths by deliberate violence and deaths from disease are morally distinct.

    The relevant comparison (although widely derided by people who want us to panic about COVID-19) is still to the seasonal flu. The question remains, if we accept so many deaths from the flu, why are we inflicting so much social and economic damage to control the spread of COVID-19? Why is a death from COVID-19 so much more terrible than a death from the flu? This is a reasonable question and the fact that it is being ignored in most of the media accounts so far just reeks of media censorship.

    There are a lot of very powerful people in government in the media who are going to be very unhappy if anyone asks, why did we do so much damage to contain a pandemic that wasn’t that bad? If you ask that, expect to be vilified as a fool or callously indifferent to human suffering.

    • Headline: Detroit girl, 5, dies of COVID-19.
      She probably had a life to live.

      You know when people are saying that the deaths have not increased significantly, and the hospitals are putting people in tents cuz they don’t have room, you guys are freaking hilarious.

      • re: “and the hospitals are putting people in tents cuz they don’t have room,”

        Where is this? Outside the US? China maybe? Fess up … you’re trolling, ‘chumming’ (adding chum to) the water here …

  25. Only it isn’t called ChiCom-19, and absolute mortality in the Netherlands (that is real counted corpses in morgues) is currently displaying a hockey stick: the average death count in The Netherlands over the last five years was 3000 per week, we are currently at 5000 absolute deaths per week, the previous flu epidemic peaked at 4000.

    So I don’t know where Nature got there numbers from, not from the Netherlands.

    • Spread is irrelevant. ICU visits and deaths are all that matter. NYC are a bunch of liars about their death numbers. But you’re probably OK with that because you countenance the climate liars too.

    • Steven,
      Thank you for the paper reference. It was a pleasant surprise in terms of its quality, even though its conclusions come as no surprise.

      London, it seems, has made similar mistakes to New York, particularly in cutting services rather than increasing them to reduce traveller density per journey. From headline numbers, deaths of frontline TFL workers (who run the bus and underground services in London) seem to be running at over 3 times the London average.

  26. Not sure how this fits into your timeline and I think they’ve published a paper/assessment of their research but haven’t looked yet. Some of the comments seem interesting having just glanced at the first few.

    Cambridge researcher points out what analysts got wrong about COVID-19

    https://youtu.be/fB8M37gx5xM

  27. Let’s go back and revisit how we got here to these State imposed Lock-downs, and that they are now going past mid-April into maybe now to the end of May or longer.

    The original justification everyone in the political class used (both R’s and D’s) was we had to “Flatten the curve.”

    The curve being the acute respiratory distress case presentation rate to hospital ICU’s that could so overwhelm our hospitals across the nation. In such a high peaked curve scenario, huge numbers of patients in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) would force the US hospitals into an Northern Italy situation, a situation where patients were being triaged (divided into those who could be helped and those who couldn’t) and then many dying in hallways awaiting ICU intubation and a ventilator and other life-support … that never came.

    Note: In “flatten the Curve”, no one ever suggested the virus would eliminated from cirulation. Only the peak presentation RATE would be decreased to manageable levels. No one suggested the Area Under the Curve (AUC) would be less in flattened scenario as eventually EVERYONE is going to get inoculated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus regardless, the question is when… all at once (or nearly so) or spread out over months to a year. (By inoculation I mean either community infected OR vaccinated by an effective vaccine). But the AUC itself was never going to change, that is everyone was going to get infected, it was just a matter of “when.”

    We have flattened the curve. The Original goal is now attained, by either luck or quarantine. It doesn’t matter. Cases (both infections and fatalities) are now falling. Yes they may surge back up, but the orgianl goal has been met.
    Time to open back up.

    It is the idiots (and Trump haters) who want to now move the Goal Posts to claim this is about stopping a resurgence or circulation of virus entirely.. that will be impossible unless (1) we want to stay in Depression-style Economic lock-down till 2021 and/or when an effective vaccine arrives for the masses.

    At this point it is about allowing a growing and steady herd immunity to develop over months to a a year, because no mass-produced vaccine will be ready for at least 18 months.

    This Lockdown situation is very much like the Climate Scam perpetrated by the Left. The climate scam is promoted by only discussing the negatives (costs of climate change on society and ecosystems), and they steadfastly ignore the costs of fossil fuel elimination and the benefits they provide.

    From a medical perspective, the Hippocrates imprimatur is “First Do No Harm.”

    At this point, based on the economic harm then the continuance of the Lockdowns is doing more harm than good to both our society overall ( harm: suicides, poverty, stress, broken families) and its long-term health and wealth to afford a better future.

    • Joel,

      Thank you for your clear analysis of the problem. I tried to lay this out in a slightly different form in a recent post, but I always appreciate your thoughts on serious matters.

  28. the only Levin video found with the full show (almost). first time I’ve come across that problem. also, ads included in some spots. finally, intro to Dr. John Ioannidis around 22m40s, listing all his credentials, seems to be missing.
    first half is with True Health Initiative’s Dr. David Katz.

    Youtube: 48:40 – 19 Apr: Life Liberty & Levin [LIVE STREAM] 4/19/20
    about 22m40s to the end: Dr. John Ioannidis, Stanford University

  29. Dave,
    I’ve enjoyed every one of your many posts. Hope you keep it up. But this time you left out the subtitle, one of my favorite parts.
    My suggestion: ‘Guest reality-check by David Middleton.’

    • That is interesting. Because if you take the excess mortality and attributed it with different percentages to COVID-19 and calculate from that different CFR rates and the corresponding infection rate you can come up with a best case scenario based on 100% people already infected.

      From the article:
      “At the aggregate level, we report an increase going from 1,635 deaths in March 2019 to 7,680 deaths in March 2020, equivalent approximately to a 400% increase in the average municipality mortality rate compared to 2019 or previous years. Of these 6,045 excess deaths, only 2,948 deaths have been officially attributed to COVID-19, implying that COVID-19 related fatalities account approximately only for half of the observed excess deaths.”

      So let’s take the data from table 1, panel A:

      8,880 COVID-19 deaths
      4,925 total deaths March 2019
      23,130 total deaths March 2020
      18,205 excess mortality
      198,300 population

      only 49% of the excess mortality are therefore attributed to SARS-CoV-2. But in numbers it’s still 9,325 MORE of deaths not attributed to SARS-CoV-2 than last year meaning an 1.89-fold increase. Without the COVID-19 cases. These included it’s a 3.7-fold increase.

      If we assume an infection rate of 100%(!) and 8880 deaths the CFR would be 0.45% with only roughly half of the excess mortality attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

      0.23% CFR if only 25% of the excess mortality would be due to SARS-CoV-2.

      For a CFR of 0.1% only 10.87% of excess mortality could be attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

      I really don’t think that these low CFRs are plausible cause the excess mortality is unusually high and the amount of people infected is not even near 100%.

      My best guess at the moment is at least 1% CFR more likely to be over 2% depending on the health care system and demography. I hope I am wrong.

      • The same calculation for New York City:

        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

        For March roughly 5,000 deaths/year (and that is a generously high estimate). From March 4th to April 4th 9,780 death (this number is without the ominous 3,700) meaning an excess mortality of 4,780. 50% attributed to SARS-CoV-2 makes 2,390. Population 8,399,000. 100% assumed positive gives a CFR of 0.028%

        For a CFR of 0.1% already 28% of all people in New York City must have been infected with the virus at April 4th. With these outdated numbers.

        Excess mortality for New York State is not easy to get but let’s assume of the 18,776 deaths by COVID-19 on worldometer only half are really due to the disease and attributed correctly. That leaves us with a CFR of 0.048% if 100% of the population is already infected and nobody else dies of COVID-19 from now on.

        For a CFR of 0.1% already 48% of all New York state must have been infected. Very. Much. Unlikely.

  30. This truck driver has had a face mask.in his truck for the last 2 weeks. This morning I was required to use it for the first time. I’m delivering a refer load of Nestle’s product to the Tops DC in Lancaster, NY. Backed in door #318 waiting to be unloaded as I type this.

    The politiburo of NY has ordered all comrades to comply and Tops will not even let a driver check in without a face covering.

    Long ago I started doing everything I could do to avoid spending a dime in leftist states. If possible I won’t spend any of the companies money in them either.

  31. The night before I checked in at Ft. Benning to start Ranger school I stayed in the same motel room that John Wayne used during the filming of that movie. I went through that school after I was already gone through the SFQC and on a team. In my class was a SGM that was in his 50’s that became the oldest soldier to graduate the course up to that time. I was already lean and mean when I started the course but still ended up losing 22 lb by the time I finished. Sleep deprivation and hunger were the worst of it for me.

    • So Aldo Ray (Muldoon) and Raymond St. Jaques (Doc) weren’t so unrealistically old? 😎

      • Na, they were but that didn’t detract from the movie for me. The whole jump scene was bad. Jump commands were BS, no time for conversations, John Wayne failing to hook up before giving the commands. Then later Wayne taking the bite of the rappel rope from the trailing end instead of the standing end. Those were the kinds of things that detracted from the movie for me.
        That said, the theme of the Movie was right on. SF earned more CMHs than any unit of any size in Vietnam. I had the honer of meeting three of those recipients that survived.

        My last Team Sgt did two tours as SF in Vietnam and held a DSC from that service for actions one hellish night very much as depicted in the movie. He was also at Desert One slated to go in as part of the team to rescue the hostages in Tehran.

        Met many remarkable men during my decade as an SF soldier. The guy running the SFQC when I went through was Col. Ola Mize. Used an E-tool to take out the last eight Chicoms he killed defending some hill in Korea.

        • Apart from the many technical, historical and geographical flaws, a few things I noticed:

          I’m pretty sure no one fired an M16 in the entire movie.

          You could see ropes dropping the Huey that crashed.

          The M16 that John Wayne smashed against a tree was a plastic toy. I had one just like it.

          The A-1 Skyraiders attacked at night and the AC-47 attacked in daylight.

          All that said, The Green Berets has been one of my favorite movies since I first saw it in 4th grade.

          Without a doubt, the Green Berets are truly awesome. The books, Night of the Silver Stars: The Battle of Lang Vei and The Hunt for Bin Laden: Task Force Dagger by Robin Moore (author of the book The Green Berets) are two of my favorite books.

          I never had the honor of serving… But I have the utmost respect for our armed forces, particularly the Special Operation Forces and USMC. My late older brother was a Sgt. in the USMC and spent 1967 somewhere north of Da Nang.

          Thank you for your service.

          • I can’t repost it for you now from my phone but I have a great story from an SF MACSOG that had a pet tiger and used it for intimidation during interrogations.
            Blindfold the noncompliant subject tied in a chair. Tiger brought in and put about a foot from the subjects face. Blindfold lifted as he pinched the back of the neck of his pet which was it’s signal to roar.
            Said it worked Everytime. His team received praise for the accuracy of the Intel they provided.
            When they left the Country the Tiger went with them and was donated to an Australian zoo where it sired many more to help make up for the heavy toll that war took on Asian tigers.

            Thank you David. But really no thanks needed. It gave back every bit as much as I put into it.

          • As for war movies, my favorite is Kelly’s Heroes. Though it’s more of a bank heist than a war movie.

            What impressed me the most was the lengths they want to to make a tank look as much like a Tiger I as possible. If you could ignore the T-34 running gear, it was a VERY good Tiger.

            That and the all-star cast, just awesome.

  32. Oh, BTW I read that people that received the attenuated flu shot, as I did, are showing false positives on the antibody tests. Can’t remember where I read that though.

    • That’s the May contract that expires tomorrow.

      The front part of the oil futures ‘curve,’ which is the May contract that expires on Tuesday, was hit the hardest since it applies to fuel that’s set to be delivered while most of the country remains on lockdown thanks to the coronavirus. There’s little demand for gasoline from refineries, and storage tanks in the U.S. are nearing their limits.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html

      The production cuts start in May, The June contract last traded around $22/bbl. Using your limited mentality, oil prices will roughly double when the contract rolls over.

      Prices won’t begin to recover until the production cuts fully kick in and the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis ends. Without the production cuts, brokered by President Trump, oil prices would be much lower and the futures curve wouldn’t look like this:

      • The effects of shutdowning the world economy is like a bloodless world war.

        Large institutional investors and countries will not be able to honor specific contracts.

        “West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tanked 92%, or $16.76, to $1.38 per barrel, its lowest level on record.”

        Fire insurance pays out as long as every city in the world does not suddenly start to burn. If there is a world war, countries will claim force majeure, and walk away from contracts.

        We need to get our economy restarted as the amount of permanent damage to the engine that creates real money (our country’s GDP) is time dependent.

        What is going to happen is Left wing countries are going to walk away from their debt and their contractual obligations.

        Italy, Spain, Greece, and then France will all be forced to default.

        Paper money is just paper if the GDP machine is broken.

      • Dead bodies in makeshift morgues (refrigerated trailers) is not a straw man. This thing is much much more deadlier than the flu. Ask any doctor or nurse on the front lines.

        • What evidence do you have that hospitals use of morgue trailers is due to overflow of their own morgues? Maybe they just want to get the dead bodies out of the building.

        • I don’t have to ask a doctor. They are speaking up and saying that their treatments may be a deadly factor in this illness.

          • No, I’m not. Covid is unique because patients typically present with normal lung compliance (flexibility) and hypoxemia. In most cases it’s not pneumonia or ARDS (low lung compliance; inflexible). Doctors don’t know how to treat this new condition based on their training, which says stick a tube in them when certain parameters are met; but those parameters weren’t developed in trials that dealt with these types of conditions. High PEEP on compliant lungs can damage them and cause edemas. You need a lot of pressure to a inflate a stiff balloon (alveoli), but if you apply the same pressure to a flexible balloon, you can burst it, which is probably what is happening in misdiagnosed covid patients.

  33. It is funny how everyone is commenting here based on their long held opinions, not even considering what the article states. The article discusses that the infection rate is much higher than the statistics are telling us, which pushes the fatality rate much lower. But most commenters ignore the article and just spout whatever they feel.

    • No valid statement can be made about infection rates period. Without broad based testing, and an antibody test that is specific for COVID-19 and not for other corona viruses, we are blind.

  34. I have received more idiotic missives from the University today, missives that demand we obey commands never actually given, and then come here to read an interesting mix of comments from people who continue to see things without evidence. I feel like I am in the Middle Ages.

    We started our response to this pandemic by trying to flatten the curve. That is to keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. We could have done this by isolating the group of people likely to get serious cases, i.e. those over seventy or sixty-five or whatever, a strategy I have seen work at small scale and which is scaleable. Instead we chose to lockdown the country and cripple the economy.

    Now the mission has become to “save lives” or prevent the “spread of disease”, or “stay safe”, all of it ill-defined and enforced by the media and a group of busybodies. These goals are so foolish as to beggar belief. If we had isolated the vulnerables early none of this would matter.

    We do not know how many active cases there are. We only know how many among those who self-offered to be tested have tested positive. We do not know how many are immune. If we did know these number they might help us assemble a plan to get out of this mess, but knowing these numbers might only fuel more fear and irrationality. People see what they expect.

    People keep speaking of a vaccine in 18 months as a sort of salvation. I know of no vaccine against a corona virus, and there are many deadly illnesses for which no vaccine has been perfected. Yet, forthcoming vaccine or not, 18 months is too long for the status quo, and we have to come up with plans that do not depend of wishful thinking.

    We have reached a present peak of this round of disease. We see lots of noise in the data. This is caused by vagaries of reporting, and the randomness of the responses of various groups as the disease sweeps across the nation. Italy is well beyond a peak, and we see its peak period had the same noisy quality to it.

    The only short term solution is to isolate the vulnerable, open the economy, and let the herd build immunity slowly. Everything else, from political shaming, to irrational behavior, to constantly changing the goal, is unhelpful.

  35. Middleton, the name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2. The name of the disease is COVID-19. Calling it anything else shows that you are confusing political science with medical science.

      • It’s the name that doctors, nurses, and medical researchers are using. You know…. medical science, not political science.

        • Pool
          Words are used to convey meaning. That can be affected by context. That is, if a researcher is giving a talk on communicable diseases to a group of peers, it is necessary to be specific so that they understand just which virus or viruses are being referred to. However, in the context of laymen discussing social, economic, and political consequences of the current epidemic, terms such as Kung Flu or ChiCom-19 are sufficiently descriptive that little or nothing is lost in meaning, and perhaps something is added that the two technical terms you prefer leave out. I suspect that is the essence of your complaint — what you want left out Or, maybe you are just a pedant.

        • So the doctors on TV are using the government approved name, and to you this proves that only the government approved name is to be permitted?

          Once again, all you got is butt hurt.

          • re: “Since when is there such thing as “medical science”?”

            Are you serious? It is “the science of dealing with the maintenance of health and the prevention and treatment of diseasehttps://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/medical%20science

            Medical science covers many subjects which try to explain how the human body works. Starting with basic biology it is generally divided into areas of specialisation such as anatomy, physiology and pathology with some biochemistry, microbiology, molecular biology and genetics.

            “Medical Sciences Library” – https://msl.library.tamu.edu/

            You really “don’t get out much”, do you ng?

          • Obviously I’m absolutely serious.

            Since WHEN does that thing you allege exists, exists?

            (“When” in the English languages relates to time. The more you know.)

          • Idiot.

            id·i·ot – Middle English (denoting a person of low intelligence): via Old French from Latin idiota ‘ignorant person’, from Greek idiōtēs ‘private person, layman, ignorant person’, from idios ‘own, private’.

            Per wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiot

            An idiot, in modern use, is a stupid or foolish person.

            It was formerly a technical term in legal and psychiatric contexts for some kinds of profound intellectual disability where the mental age is two years or less, and the person cannot guard himself or herself against common physical dangers. The term was gradually replaced by the term profound mental retardation (which has itself since been replaced by other terms). Along with terms like moron, imbecile, and cretin, it is archaic and offensive in those uses.

            ———————

            “The Clinical History of ‘Moron,’ ‘Idiot,’ and ‘Imbecile'”
            https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/moron-idiot-imbecile-offensive-history

            Idiots.—Those so defective that the mental development never exceeds that or a normal child of about two years.

            Imbeciles.—Those whose development is higher than that of an idiot, but whose intelligence does not exceed that of a normal child of about seven years.

            Morons.—Those whose mental development is above that of an imbecile, but does not exceed that of a normal child of about twelve years.

            — Edmund Burke Huey, Backward and Feeble-Minded Children, 1912

          • Consider giving it a rest. When did your ‘contributions’ start here? A month ago? Two months ago now?Compare that to 2006 in my case, and with a reasonably GOOD record of contribution all that time whereas you ?????

            Consider giving it a rest.

  36. Figured it would happen but it’s being report in Australia there is a class action in the US against China
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-china-sued-american-class-action-germany-sends-bill/12164106

    I see the German Newspaper Bild put the bill for Germany at 24 billion euros and if each of the over 200 countries affected did the same it would be an interesting bill.

    There is a bit of Climate Change humour in this for COP26, where it will be funny watching any country try to claim reparations for CO2. China has clearly set the benchmark you can cause untold economic damages kill hundreds of thousands of people directly and it’s all okay. I suspect China will be very reluctant to even start or support that conversation because they will know what is going to come back at them.

      • Asset seizure could be a way, but whether winning or even a trial is possible is a big question. A Chinese company that I am suing for back wages is using COVID-19 to delay proceedings.

    • Denominator; too small/incorrect parameter. Denominator not be the number tested. Further testing only increases that figure. You know this, or no? Probably not (my chosen bet.) Do you fly? Why would I not trust you to fly IFR (vs VFR)?

      • Does the same argument apply to the number of cases of flu when you compare it to COVID-19?

        • The flu season is over.
          If you don’t know the significance of that, then just admit that you don’t know what you are talking about.

          • MarkW, if the flu season is “over” and the COVID-19 season is still continuing, then you have just given us evidence that the fatality rates are different. Thank you for providing evidence that comparing the flu to COVID-19 is “apples to oranges,” and that there is no similarity to their fatality rates.

    • Pool
      Sometime rates are important, other times they are not. An intelligent person understands that. As an example, if one person catches an extremely rare disease, and dies, the rate is 100%. However, in practical terms, the loss of one life in a population of 300 million, is almost inconsequential except to family and close friends.

  37. The death or fatality rate is not the important statistic – it is the total number of deaths. That depends upon death rate. and number of infections. COVID19 is deadlier than any seasonal flu because it is so contagious – even with the mitigating actions which the country has taken, which are NEVER taken for the seasonal flu, the total number of deaths will greatly exceed the average flu. That is because COVID19 is so contagious, especially because the early infection stage, when the infected individual’s output of viruses into the environment is greatest, is not recognizable. People are looking at death rate to compare diseases and this is invalid. Total deaths is the statistic that matters.

  38. Add to this mess the FACT that the standard RECOMMENDED American Diet includes lots of whole grains and fruit. All grains are converted to sugar in the blood and fruit contains lost of sugar. That carbohydrate rich diet IS the cause of the US diabetes epidemic (and the long list of associated conditions). AND most viruses (maybe all) love sugar …. SO FEED the ChiCom 19 virus and KILL THE PATIENT.

    So do you think the ChiCom Party understands how to encourage the spread of a virus that kills people in capitalist nations (and convinces political leaders to have their countries commit economic suicide). Or that they figured out how to supply thousands of tons of fentanyl to us to feed our opioid epidemic? Is it a sneaky coordinated attack? Cheaper and less noisy than a nuclear attack!!!

    • Most Americans eat very little whole grains; most grains they consume are refined. Refined and complex carbs are digested differently. Plus they eat a lot of refined sugars. If they ate only whole grains and less sugars they would be much better off.

  39. David,
    This isn’t related to nCOV but I wanted to ask you:
    It looks like the Saudis sent 20 oil tankers to Texas, arrival slated for May – and that these tankers hold about 7 months of Gulf Coast equivalent Saudi imports.
    Given that demand is way down, and storage is getting tight – it seems the Saudi move will flood the market with even more oversupply even as WTI prices are collapsing (under $5 right now!).
    My question: while I know you aren’t shale, do you have an idea if there is any difficult/cost to shut production off in a well? And cost/time to bring it back up?
    This seems to be a unique situation: so much oil that there’s nowhere to put it, much less sell it.

        • re: “I thought they were going to be US produced oil for the SPI?”

          Oil is fungible*; sometimes accepting delivery here (point A) is offset by sending oil elsewhere (at a point B). Remember, we are net exporters, key word “net”. Hawaii I think imports from the ME for instance, but the US exports much more from the mainland, hence, large “net” export.

          .
          .
          * goods contracted without an individual specimen being specified are able to replaced by another identical item elsewhere; mutually interchangeable. Kinda like a bank account: payment by checks drawn on your account but payment is to different persons through their bank wherever they may be.

      • ” wonder if those are headed for the SPI (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)?”

        I’m not sure where the Saudi oil is headed. Trump was asked about it yesterday in his news conference, as to what he was going to do about it, and he said he was looking into it. I don’t know what that amounts to.

        Trump also said he still wants to fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and I think he is looking for other locations to store oil. He said this was a very good time to be putting oil into reserve since the cost was so cheap.

        Apparently the Democrats in Congres blocked Trump from buying oil to put in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so he has changed gears and is now offering to rent out storage space, rather than buying the oil. I guess the Democrats can’t block that. Ya gotta love Trump! 🙂

        We sure do need to vote those delusional Democrats out of office in November. They are holding up the show big time. They are nothing but an impediment to progress and common sense.

    • Shutting in a well isn’t a problem. The longer it’s shut in, the more difficult it might be to bring it back on. There is also the potential of losing the lease. In which case, the well would have to be plugged and abandoned.

      Do you have a link to the Saudi tanker story? I’d like to look into it.

      • One thing… They are harping on the May contract price, which could be zero by the time it expires tomorrow. The spread between the front month (May) and second month is currently over $20/bbl, which is unprecedented. The WSJ link is paywalled, but enough of it was visible for me to check it out… Thanks.

        • Over 55 dollars at the close was the spread.
          It has narrowed up some after the close of the trading day, with the May contract all the way up to only minus 25 a barrel or so.

        • Agreed – the May contract price is not as interesting as the potential driver: 20 tankers/ 40 million barrels.
          That could a big deal although I don’t know normal/present demand vs. production delta to know how much of an impact that would have – and for how long.

          • The tanker story is kind of weird. The article said the oil already had buyers here, but that some of the oil could be diverted elsewhere. It strikes me as if someone might be planning on parking some tankers offshore and wait for oil prices to rise.

  40. Right now there is 80 million barrels of spare capacity in the SPR.
    trump would need no funds from congress, theoretically, to put oil into the SPR…he could get us paid to take it.
    The amount is likely not high though.
    The big question is, what happens to the forward month contracts after the May contract closes tomorrow?
    This could be some hedge fund or oil fund collapsing.
    Traders are on TV saying obviously no one is actually going to pay anyone thirty five thousand dollars to take 1000 barrels of crude.

    • “Right now there is 80 million barrels of spare capacity in the SPR.
      trump would need no funds from congress, theoretically, to put oil into the SPR…he could get us paid to take it.”

      At his news conference yesterday, Trump said that was just what he was proposing to do. He wants to rent out Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage space, but I got the impression he wanted to do that for domestic production. I don’t know if the Saudi oil figures into that equation.

  41. Here is my idea: Trump takes delivery of all of the oil they are paying to give away, and use the money to build the wall, while topping off the SPR and giving Nancy and Chuck the world’s biggest finger!

  42. Meanwhile, deafening silence on this story:
    “Orchestrated from the highest levels of the Department of Justice, the FBI knowingly used disinformation from a foreign adversary — paid for by political operatives running a partisan campaign in an ongoing U.S. election — to unleash America’s most powerful and sprawling espionage apparatus against political enemies of a sitting administration.

    Think about it. This is infinitely worse than Watergate. These are abuses so much more brazen and dangerous than anything from Hoover, the infamous longtime director of … ahem … the FBI.

    We now know that FBI agents — operating at the behest of powerful appointees of the Obama administration — deliberately doctored foreign intelligence to obtain secret warrants to spy on an active political campaign for president. In the United States of America.

    This is no longer opinion or speculation. This is fact, backed up by exhaustive investigation and extensive evidence. The fact that these massive abuses are getting short-shrift in the media today only reveals the extent to which the media has been a co-conspirator in this travesty of justice.

    They have become outright defenders of a police state, where spying on innocent Americans seeking political office is now perfectly acceptable to them.

    Meanwhile, in Congress, the most powerful Democrats in the land knew what was going on and encouraged it. All for sick partisan gain.

    To cover their tracks, they lied and accused their political opponents of doing exactly what they themselves did: Using foreign disinformation straight out of Moscow to sow discord and win an election here in the United States.

    Again, this is not some hot-headed opinion from a crazy conspiracy theorist. Or, at least, it’s not just that. It also happens to be the stone-cold truth.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/charles-hurt-horowitz-report-proves-things-are-even-worse-than-we-thought/

    • “We now know that FBI agents — operating at the behest of powerful appointees of the Obama administration — deliberately doctored foreign intelligence to obtain secret warrants to spy on an active political campaign for president. In the United States of America.

      This is no longer opinion or speculation. This is fact, backed up by exhaustive investigation and extensive evidence. The fact that these massive abuses are getting short-shrift in the media today only reveals the extent to which the media has been a co-conspirator in this travesty of justice.”

      Exactly!

      The Obama administration was/is a criminal enterprise that used illegal means to try to undermine the candidacy of Donald Trump and then to undermine the presidency of Donald Trump. The Obama administration undermined the U.S. Constitution in the process and this illegal activity is the most dangerous threat to the freedoms of Americans in all of U.S. history.

      Fortunately, it appears that our Attorney General is getting ready to drop the hammer on a bunch of Obama administration officials. I don’t know if Obama himself will be indicted, although it appears to me that he should be, since his minions would not have done this without his knowledge and permission. But, politics being what it is, we probably can’t expect Barack and Hillary to go to jail, but a Dishonorable Mention would be a good substitute if the public can see their guilt.

      The Obama administration tried to rig our election process. Had they been successful, they would have continued to rig our election process, and they would have rigged it so they held all the power, all the time. Don’t doubt me. If they were successful the first time, they would have continued right along.

      We need to send a bunch of people to jail in order to deter such criminality in the future. Just a few people tried to take away the freedoms of over 330 million people. They almost succeeded. We better be very careful in the future, because you can see how easy it is, especially when you have the Media on your side promoting your cause and silencing the opposition.

      • If you sit back and read about the plan to overturn the last election by framing Trump and exonerating HRC, it can easily been seen as an unrealistic conspiracy theory. No way that could have happened.

        That is what is so brazen about the Left. They can look you straight in the eye and boldly claim what you are seeing is not reality.

    • So what we are seeing now ‘in real time’ ….

      “The May contract for U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil (CL=F), which expires on Tuesday, erased its entire value — plunging below zero for the first time in history before settling at -$37.63 per barrel. The June contract for the commodity (CLM20.NYM) also sank sharply, but held above $20 per barrel Monday afternoon.”

      … is absolutely completely different than ‘Climate Change’

      The collapse of the ‘world financial system’ is a quick thing, not a slow thing like climate ‘change’.

      I do not see any similarity at all the collapse of thousands of businesses and bank collapses, in a country, to climate change.

      I do not see the collapse of the entertainment industry (sports, movies, and so on), the collapse of the tourism industry, the collapse of the restaurant industry as analogous to climate change.

      This is like watching planes flying around until they run out fuel. That plan ends in a sad way.

      Better to land and think before wasting all of the fuel we have left.

      Revenue is down 30% every country, except China.

      Expenses are up 200% every country except for China

      We are paying people to sit at home. We are paying companies as we wait for the covid virus to go away or until we run out of money.

      The above ‘plan’ ends when the first major country or major financial ‘institution’ goes bankrupt.

      And then we get to see what happens when countries, banks, and commercial institutions default on their contractual agreements.

      Money is just a contract. And if the GDP machine is broken money turns to paper.

      • Don’t be so concerned about the May futures contract. It expires tomorrow and its’s for oil to be delivered while the economy is shut down and storage space is running out. Demand will recover as the economy reopens.

        The big concern is for small businesses, particularly local restaurants. Many of these may not reopen. Even the restaurants that hung on with delivery and to go orders may fail if they can’t reopen soon.

        • I totally agree small businesses are dying and large businesses are also dying except slower.

          This oil ‘event’ is evidence that a major player defaulted.

          May oil contracts settling Minus!!!! 37.63 USD

          The oil companies covered their position contractually to protect against a major event, the problem is the event is too big.

          The companies sold all of their oil. The problem is the middle man in the game did not have a home for the oil and has forced to default.

          The oil game is the first game that broke.

          The companies will sue the bankrupt financial institution for their losses, but you cannot get money from a company that is bankrupt.

          We are watching the global financial system ‘unwind’.

          Breitbart is the first news organization to notice.

          https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/04/20/oil-breaks-the-buck-and-quickly-plunges-to-1-cent/

          Still the dive into deep negative territory ( William: Minus!!! USD 37.63) suggests something more is at work….

          … perhaps the collapse of a hedge fund or …

          Other ‘investment’ vehicle with a large position in oil futures.

          • The drop from $20 to -$38 was mostly speculators trading paper. No one paid $38 to deliver a barrel of oil today, when they could deliver it Wednesday for $20/bbl.

  43. ” It is it’s natural manure.

    Thomas Jefferson, letter to William Stephens Smith, 1787″

    Surely Jefferson would have written “It’s its natural manure”? No?

    • Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

      1.8% to 5.7% is a pretty wide confidence interval.

      USA
      Population ~330,000,000
      1.8% ~5,940,000
      5.7% ~18,881,000
      Confirmed cases ~800,000
      Deaths ~50,000
      50,000/800,000 = 6.25%
      50,000/5,940,000 = 0.8%
      50,000/18,810,000 = 0.3%

      When I get to the office (kitchen) I’ll build a spreadsheet.

  44. for folks who prefer to watch rather than read.

    https://youtu.be/R8Pv77R3g1E?t=945

    The math behind sensitivity and selectivity is not that hard, geologists should get it

    For example, if you work in GIS and build maps of various land classifications ( Like urban
    versus Rural in climate studies) then the math is basically the same, but the terms might be a little different.

    • For those who prefer reading over YouTube…

      Early estimates based on confirmed cases have ranged from 1 to 5 percent. It has always been assumed that these estimates are high since, in most countries including the US, only the sickest have been tested — at least until very recently.

      […]

      But previously, most estimates have been closer to 5 or 10 times the confirmed case count.

      https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/309500-how-deadly-is-covid-19-new-stanford-study-raises-questions

      USA
      Population ~330,000,000
      Confirmed cases ~800,000
      5x = 4,000,000
      10x = 8,000,000
      Deaths ~50,000
      50,000/800,000 = 6.25%
      50,000/4,000,000 = 1.25%
      50,000/8,000,000 = 0..625%

      The Stanford folks at least shared their math. Even using the Extreme Tech arm waving math, the most likely number is less than 1%.

      Any way you slice it, destroying an economy on the difference between 0.1% and 1.25% is pretty fracking stupid.

  45. For some reason the mortality rate of this virus is getting talked down by some. The Italian province of Bergamo regrettably shows how serious Sars 2 is.

    Until the end of March officially 2060 people have died there from Covid 19. Since the province only has 1.1 mio residents, that would be almost 0.2% of the total population. Btw. some 11.000 have tested positive so far, which of course is totally underreporting the real extend of the pandemic. Anyhow..

    The problem is that a) hundreds of people have died there since and b) the death toll is strongly underreporting reality. A total of 5.400 have died in Bergamo in March, which is up from 900 a year before. The virus has obviously killed over 0.5% of the total population there already and the numbers are only going up.

    We could translate this into the overall mortality rate of Sars 2 if we would assume a 100% of that population had gotten infected. Obviously that can not be true, although Bergamo is certainly the worst affected region we know of so far. But we can do number games and assume any infection rate you like, for instance 30%, divide the minimum death toll observed (0.5%) and with it, and you get 1.67% mortality.

    That of course is under the circumstances of a totally overrun health care system, with many people dying without treatment at home.

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