Regular WUWT contributor Willis Eschenbach has been plotting the official death rate data from the Coronavirus almost daily. We will continue to add to this page as needed and as Willis makes updates.
Read the note from Willis, or Skip to Latest Plot:
My thanks to Anthony for thinking of making this a page to follow the history of these plots. I’ll be updating them daily, unless mischance and coincidence intervene, sometime just before midnight GMT, which is when the Worldometers data page refreshes for the new day.
Note that the data changes throughout the day, and there are various sources of data, so there may be some variation between your data and mine at any given instant.
For those interested in how I’ve done it, I put the R computer code online, download it by clicking here. There are two files, “Willis Functions.R” and “Coronagraph.R”. The “Willis Functions” file loads a bunch of libraries, so you may have to download one or more. It also contains the code for a host of things I use over and over, such as the lines with the black background that I like to use for clarity in my graphs.
The R code goes and gets the HTML source document for the Worldometer page. It then parses the document to obtain the various historical figures. These don’t include the most recent day, so I download and parse another page for those figures and tack them on the end.
Finally, a plea to all those in charge. The economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations is going to be huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. Think pissed off young men out of a job and on the street.
And on the positive side, as my graph clearly shows, the South Koreans have managed to contain the virus. How did they manage that?
First, they test widely, then use confirmatory tests to avoid wasting time on false positives.
Then they trace all contacts of infected people and test them, and identify and quarantine SICK people, not HEALTHY people.
My oft-infuriating good friend Steven Mosher is living in Korea at the moment. He said that when one person in an apartment building gets ill, they test the whole floor plus a couple of floors above and below where the person lives.
When a guy in a call center got the virus, he said, they tested all 250 people working there. Heck, those jokers even have phone-booth style testing facilities to increase the number of tests per day … they are on it.
In this manner, using testing, tracing, and quarantining the ill rather than the healthy, they’ve been able to control the spread very well. As of today (2020-03-20) they have only 94 deaths in the whole country and leveling out (see below) and they’re NOT locking down the entire population and destroying their economy like we are.
Let’s emulate success, folks. I don’t mind learning from experience, but generally, I prefer to learn from other people’s experiences, and we have Europe and South Korea to learn from.
Here’s the crazy, bull goose looney part no one is talking about. The US government is about to spend a trillion dollars of your and my tax money to prop up the economy whose wheels have just been taken off by the insane shelter-in-place orders of the US government. Sen. McConnell unveiled a roughly $1 trillion stimulus package on Thursday to help “mitigate the economic pain that tens of millions of Americans are already feeling”.
That trillion dollars won’t put the wheels back on. It won’t get us rolling again. It just pays us for the losses already suffered.
Do you ever think how many ventilators and hospitals and test kits and testing personnel we could buy for A TRILLION DOLLARS OF YOUR AND MY GAD FARKING TAX MONEY!!
Typical ventilator cost US$25,000, in normal times. Say you have to pay double in scarce times. Say we want a half million of them, big number, more than we’ll ever need, but why not? How much of our trillion pinche dollars of tax money remains?
Ninety-seven percent. We’ve bought a half million ventilators and have hardly dented the pile.
My point is simple. If we’re going to spend a trillion, let’s put out wartime prices with war-time high-speed bidding processes. Say that the government will pay double the peacetime costs for ventilators and mobile field hospitals and beds and the like. Focus on American made. Phone-booth testing sites? Koreans can make them? Americans can make them. Buy all that the Koreans willl sell, plus encourage US manufacturers can make them by putting tariffs on them.
Seriously … wouldn’t putting a trillion of our hard-earned dollars into that be far, far better than doling it out in dribs and drabs, in grants and loans, a bit here, an overhead cost there? Because here are two ugly truths.
Ugly Truth 1) Some good-sized proportion of the population worldwide is going to get the coronavirus. Only question is when.
Ugly truth 2) Remember that trillion dollars to pay for the losses occurred so far during the nationwide lockdown? You know how long the lockdown has been going on?
One week. One. Stinking. Week. And it’s already cost A TERABUCK OF OUR TAXPAYER MONEY. And the government is talking about it lasting a month?!? Madness of the highest order.
A trillion to prop up one week? What say we suffer an attack of sanity, cancel next week’s lockdown, and put the trillion we just saved in just one stinking week into ventilators and beds and field hospitals?
Because it will hit, and the only question is how prepared we’ll be when it hits. All this stick-your-head-in-the-sand is doing is delaying it. Why? Well, theoretically so that we can be medically prepared for it with enough beds and ventilators and the like. Which is a very good reason. Gotta have more beds and ventilators than you have sick people. Medical preparation is what we want to achieve.
Given that being medically prepared is the over-riding issue, how about we
a) stop this mad stay-at-home failed experiment,
b) get America back to work,
c) continue with all the precautions we spent all this time learning, wash my hands, don’t touch my face, no sex with fruit bats, go back to disposable plastic grocery bags, social distancing, and most importantly, spend that trillion we just saved on d) …
… you know … urgently, four-alarm urgently, wartime production urgently, getting medically prepared for the wave that we’re damn sure is going to break? Buy field hospitals. Pre-position them. Stockpile ventilators. How many field hospitals does the Army have? Put them all on standby to be rushed to an overloaded city. Buy test kits. Pay double pre-war prices for everything if some people can provide it in a crazy rush. GET READY … and critically …
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN!!! We cannot afford a dead economy costing us a trillion a week.
Best to all,
PS—Further discussion of the economic aspect of the coronavirus epidemic, as well as of other extraneous and forbidden topics, is going on over at my blog, Skating Under The Ice.
Source of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
IMPORTANT NOTE: I use a logarithmic scale for the deaths, because on that scale exponential growth, the scary fast kind of growth, plots as a straight line. This lets us know when the increase in deaths is slowing down.
The covid story continues …
I’ve put in the updated projections for total deaths for New York and the US.
Note that because of the lockdown in the US and not in Sweden, the US is projected to stay at about the current number of daily deaths until September. In Sweden, on the other hand, daily deaths are projected to drop steadily down near zero by September.
And as a result, the projected deaths per million by September are as follows:
United States – 611 deaths per million.
Sweden – 612 deaths per million.
I guess we’ll know by September whether this model is any better than the others.
Not much tonight …
Get plenty of sleep, stay healthy,
The usual graphs, plus a look at what the death rate correlates with. First, the countries.
Sweden and the US have been running almost exactly parallel for six weeks … here are the US states.
No big changes, no “second peaks”.
Now, I said above that I’d been looking at the correlation of the coronavirus death rate per capita and a variety of other possibly related variables. Here are those results.
As you might imagine, the largest correlation is with total cases per capita. After all, without cases, you don’t have deaths …
Next is age. There are three categories: median age, 65 and over, and 70 and over. All three of them correlate with total deaths per capita. Not only that, but the older the group, the better the correlation. This supports the observed connection.
Next is tests per thousand. Again this would be expected to correlate with deaths—no tests, no cases, no deaths.
Next in amount of correlation is female smokers. That would make sense on its own, but curiously, male smokers are negatively correlated. Go figure.
Next, wealthy countries report higher death rates, and very poor countries report lower death rates … odd, huh? But note that this does NOT mean that wealthy countries actually have higher death rates. It means that wealthy countries have more tests, which leads to more reported cases and more reported deaths.
The one big surprise to me was that population density wasn’t a significant factor in the death rate. But then I realized that many countries have big cities and lots of country in between … with the deaths occurring mostly in the cities.
Finally, the huge elephant in all of this are the largely preventable deaths in the nursing homes. This is a new feature, in that flu preferentially infects and kills the young. Recent estimates are that in the US, a stunning 40% of all deaths have been in nursing homes. So however bad you think it is out in the larger world, it’s only two-thirds that bad …
To close out, here’s the correlation matrix for all of the above variables. Blue is positively correlated, and red is negatively correlated
Lots of interesting things in there … older median age is associated with more female smokers and more hospital beds. Hmmm.
Best to all, rock and roll, it’s cooled down after a warm afternoon and we’re going to take a walk in the forest around our house.
A closer look at California, along with the usual graphs:
I note that Peru has displaced Brazil in the graph above of per capita deaths.
Now, for California. Here’s the daily death toll.
As you can see above, deaths peaked at about the first of the month, a while ago now. And below is confirmed cases (positive tests) as a percentage of total tests.
If we were going to see a “second peak” here, the first sign would be that number, the percentage of positive tests, increasing. And despite the state removing restrictions starting on May 4th … still no sign of the second peak.
Finally, I kept seeing people saying “But Los Angeles County is still in trouble, so we can’t remove the lockdown”. So I got the county data. Here are the daily deaths for four major population areas—LA, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and San Diego counties.
LA County deaths peaked at about the same time as the statewide deaths. Next, here’s Santa Clara County, with one of the highest per-capita death rates in the state. It was one of the earliest places hit … and also one of the earliest dates of the peak deaths.
Finally, the city and county of San Diego and the capital county and city of Sacramento
Continuing the lockdowns in California at this point is all pain and no gain. We’re past the peak deaths everywhere; our economy is in the crapper; millions are unemployed; cities, counties, and the state are hemorrhaging cash; businesses are closing never to open again; and people are wondering why they can buy at giant businesses but not at small stores.
End the lockdowns now, wherever the deaths and the weight on the hospital system have peaked. And that’s most everywhere.
Stay well, wash hands, no hanky-panky with pangolins, and remember—the virus can only spread five and a half feet (1.85 m) at a time.
Well, I came up with what I think is a sensitive measure of the progress of the disease … more on that below. Here are the countries.
Sweden and the US continue to run in parallel … go figure. I note that Brazil has overtaken Germany in the top death rate countries shown above.
People keep claiming that without the anti-social distancing and shelter-in-place the US would have a million deaths. My guess is that the death rate in New York/New Jersey is the absolute worst case scenario. And that rate for the US as a whole would give us about 340,000 deaths (right scale).
Anyhow, like I said, I had an interesting idea regarding determining if we’re headed for a “second wave” of cases and deaths.
My thought was that we can look at daily cases, not in isolation, but comparison to the number of daily tests. So here’s that graphic for New York and New Jersey.
In both states, the percentage of positive tests started out around 50%, and over time it steadily dropped to around 5%.
Now, when the “suffer-in-place” regulations are removed, IF that releases a “second wave” of infections the first sign should be an increase in the number of cases found per test.
In that regard, here are two states that have removed a number of regulations, starting about a month ago. In Florida and Georgia people have been saying that we’re seeing high numbers of cases (positive tests) … but is that so?
Hmmm … some ups and downs lately, but it’s under 3% positive. Here’s Georgia:
Same as Florida. Here are some more states of interest:
Michigan is a curious case. An astounding 81% of the deaths have occurred in the nursing homes … so I’m not sure what to make of it going horizontal at 5%.
Overall? I’m not seeing any signs of the much heralded “second wave” … I’ll be keeping an eye on this measure, however.
Johns Hopkins data is now two days behind … here’s the other:
Finally, although I usually don’t pay much attention to cases, people have claimed over and over that because Georgia started removing the shelter-in-place almost 5 weeks ago, that the Georgia cases should be through the roof … but instead, it’s bad news for those who, like the mainstream media, crave bad news.
Did I mention that the emergency is over and that it is time to END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN NOW??
Yeah, I thought I might have …
Best to all,
Yep. I took yesterday off. Here’s today’s news. I say again, the emergency is OVER.
End all of the lockdowns NOW!
The peak is passed. There is no peak to flatten. IF (and it’s an open question) the lockdowns ever did anything, it’s done. The game is over.
Best to all,
Usual graphs, plus a look at peaks. This time it’s country peaks, not state peaks like yesterday.
And here are a few selected countries, starting with the hardest hit.
And here’e Sweden … still defying the critics.
Stay well, dear friends.
Another day locked down. Another day of each mayor and each county supervisor and each state governor producing a new bunch of “emergency” measures. In one state, you can go on the wet beach but not on the dry beach.
To date, I’ve seen little actual evidence that western-style lockdowns have done much. I went out into the world today. We’re still under nominal house arrest here in California. Only supposed to leave for essential travel, which mine obviously was.
The freeway was about 80% of normal traffic. I stood on the overpass looking at the unending line of cars rolling by, and I busted out laughing at the idea that the virus was somehow being slowed down. The only thing getting slowed down is the economy.
Which brings us to the graphs. I’ve put up the usual ones. I’ve also included a wide range of US states, including the northeast hot-spots of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, DC, and Massachusetts.
And here are the top 30 states in terms of deaths/capita.
Here are the top six states in order:
As you can see, we’re well past the peak in deaths (and thus in load on the hospitals) in all six states. Here are some more:
It’s now too late to “flatten the peak”. The peak is in the past. It’s time to end the American lockdown.
Late night here, just getting to the corona graphs and watching “Deadliest Catch” on TV. I’ve fished commercially up there in the Bering Sea, so it’s like a trip back in time for me. Anyhow, here’s the countries:
Getting crowded up there at the top …
The states …
And a number of daily death totals. UK, Germany, & US still falling, Sweden still proving its critics wrong, Florida and Georgia still have no sign of a “second peak”.
And lastly … Illinois appears to be truly past the peak.
Best to everyone, don’t let the ‘rona getcha …
There’s an interesting new model in town, see it here. In the world of graphs, here are the countries …
And the US states …
What else? Looks like Illinois has finally turned the corner.
And Georgia (the state, not the country) has had no second spike in deaths despite starting re-opening four weeks ago.
Sweden continues to confound its critics …
… and deaths in the UK continue to drop. They’re now half what they were at the peak. End the UK lockdown!
Sunshine after three days of rain, I’ve been out charging my solar batteries.
Best to all, stay healthy,
Another day, another 5,000 deaths. However, despite continuing deaths, most countries and states are well past the peak load on the medical systems. Which means we can no longer “flatten the curve”, so we should END THE LOCKDOWN!
I found and fixed the problem with getting the Worldometer data, so here is the correct situation.
I stated above that we are “past the peak”. Below are some plots to demonstrate that. First a few countries.
Next are a few US states. Note that Florida and Georgia reopened early, and as I predicted, have seen no sign of the dreaded “second peak”.
Seems like Illinois is finally coming to the party. And to round out the circle, here’s the world …
Folks, at this point further lockdowns and “shelter in place” nonsense is all pain and no gain … END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN NOW!
Yeah, missed a day, life is like that sometimes. Also my usual source, Worldometer, has changed a couple things so I need to check and possibly rewrite the code for that plot for the UK and Netherlands … in any case, here are the graphs.
I note that Florida and Georgia, the first two states to start loosening the regulations, are still dropping in the death count.
And the US overall continues to drop …
My best to you, stay well,
First, here’s a link to my post called Attention Citizens! The COVID19 Emergency Is Over, wherein I look at the peaks in the death rates of various countries and US states.
Next, the graphs:
Florida looks like it may be passing the peak. Georgia deaths continue dropping. These are the two earliest states to start relaxing the lunatic lockdowns. There is no sign of any “second peak” in either state.
Finally, deaths in the US are continuing to drop.
Best to all, stay safe,
Just the facts, ma’am …
And here are the states …
Best to all, stay healthy,
Fell asleep in front of the TV last night so this posting is a bit late … here are the countries.
Here’s the US and the states …
And here are a bunch of countries …
And finally, here’s the world without China. I took China out because their figures are a) huge and b) untrustworthy. As a result they would bias the conclusions if we include them.
So … what do those countries have in common? Well, remember the famous “peak” that was supposed to be flattened by the shelter-at-home and other orders? You may recall, that was the justification for the lockdowns around the world, to “flatten the peak”
Well, each and every country shown above, along with the world itself, is a month or so past that peak … you can do the math about continuing the lockdowns now that the peak is beyond the possibility of further flattening.
Next, an unexplained oddity—not only are all of those countries past their peak, but they all hit that peak within about one week of each other, around the middle of April. And that is despite very, very different lockdown measures. Why? Me, I see it as a measure of the infectivity of the disease—it races to the peak ignoring anything but the strongest South Korean style measures … but hey, what do I know, I was born yesterday.
Best to all, stay well, and End The American Lockdown Now!!
The convergence continues …
Here are the US states …
And a few more graphics of interest, all of them showing the changes in daily deaths over time. I start with Sweden …
And assuming that the lockdowns did much, here are some states that should end lockdown …
And again IF lockdown makes a difference, here are some states that shouldn’t end lockdown quite yet …
Florida has been aggressive in removing lockdowns, we’ll see if there’s some new peak or spike …
Always more to learn. Speaking of which, Matt Ridley has a very insightful post here regarding what we do and don’t know about the virus.
Rain here today, glorious rain …
The countries that are doing the worst mostly seem to be converging on something like 3,000 to 6000 deaths per 10 million population. I see this as a significant finding, in that it rules out extreme scenarios. For example, someone said today that without various social distancing and lockdowns the US would have over a million deaths.
But that would be about 30,000 deaths per ten million, which is way off of the top of the chart below. I’m sorry, but that is highly improbable.
Even the hardest hit state, New York, is far below 30,000 per 10 million population.
The beat goes on, hug those you love, stay well,
Here are the countries:
And the states …
Plus a few bonus graphs …
My best to all,
Yeah, I skipped a day, so sue me. I didn’t have much new to say. Here’re today’s graphs:
And for your bonus graph, we have:
First the countries …
I find it both hilarious and depressing that at this late date, the IHME model has DOUBLED their estimate of US deaths …
Just the usual. I see that the IHME model has totally revised their predictions for the nth time. I’ll show that tomorrow.
Made the graphs yesterday, posting them today.
I see that Ecuador has replaced Germany in this graph of the countries with the highest death rates … next, here are the US states:
Stay safe, stay well, end the American Lockdown now! It’s not helping.
And so it goes … seems like a whole lot of countries are converging on the same finish line. Different cultures, different lockdown levels, and headed for the same outcome. Go figure.
It sure looks like the US is going to bust through the IHME projected level …
Here in the US, a few states are having problems, and the rest, well, not so much.
Regards to all,
May Day. I hope that lots of folks just go back to work on Monday. Here is the situation:
My source for the third graph hasn’t updated their data.
I’ve been looking at county-level data here in California where I live. Fifty-eight counties, and more than half of the deaths are in one county—Los Angeles.
I’ve written a bit more on the situation here in my county at my blog here.
The inexorable march of death continues.
Here in California, there never was an emergency. We always have had twice or more the ICU beds we needed. Our problem is that our Governor has gone power-mad. Here are his claims about California hospital bed needs compared to reality.
See here for a look at how far the state is from an “emergency”.
Governor Newsom’s latest claim to power is to try to close all of the beaches statewide.
As far as I’m concerned, the Governor gets emergency powers when there is an emergency. In California there is no emergency, nor is one forecast. Accordingly, at present he should have zero emergency power.
Here are the latest figures. Most countries are generally approaching their full number of dead.
I got to thinking about the extremely unequal distribution of the deaths in the US. So I got the county-by-county data and plotted it up. First, here are the counties with the greatest number of raw deaths.
As you can see, the disparity is huge. In fact, out of the almost 3,000 US counties, a full quarter of the deaths have occurred in just one county. One. New York City and County, New York.
And it’s not just because of the difference in population. Here is the same data but this time by deaths per one million population:
If you leave out the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut complex, the rest of the US is actually doing quite well.
So I’d say, as I’ve said all along, END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN NOW!
I’m getting the sense that the air is starting to go out of the unreasoning fear of COVID-19.
Me, I just wish I lived near to the Palomino Room, where there are some brave patriots ignoring the governmental, and I do mean mental, nannies …
Sunday. Things are slow on Sunday. In any case, here are the cases.
Next, the states:
Seems like many Western countries are headed for the same place.
Not seeing much in the US data to say that we should keep the lockdown in place …
Let’s see. Germany and that disparate group continue to separate from the herd. I doubt that anyone knows why.
And the US and Sweden continue on the same path. Here’s the second look at the countries:
And the states …
Slowly and steadily, it’s burning its way through the population.
No surprises. The beat goes on.
Below, you can see that the US and Sweden (red/black line) continue on the same path.
Finally, the US and selected states:
“Projected” deaths are projected by the IHME model. It looks like the US will surpass the IHME projected number (horizontal red/black line) but not by a lot.
Have we reached the peak in the US deaths? Unclear …
Best to all,
Easing along. Germany still doing well. US and Sweden still running right in parallel.
The states continue on their path.
Best to all,
A few insights from the latest graphs. Countries:
Korea continues to be the only real winner. However, it’s becoming evident that unlike the other countries on this graph, one country seems to have actually flattened the curve. That country is Germany, in white in the graph above.
More insight comes from the other country graph below:
In the chart above, we can see that Germany is one of a group of four countries that have separated themselves from the pack. Be interesting to know what they’re doing right.
Finally, here are the states:
It looks like New York, as well as the US as a whole, will slightly exceed the IHME projections.
Finally, Sweden. For a while now folks have said the test will be Sweden, which has done little in the way of social distancing etc. You can see Sweden in both the graphs above. In addition, let me recommend Hans Rosler’s always-excellent “Our World In Data” site. The graphic below shows the US in red, Sweden in blue, from here.
Best regards to everyone, stay healthy,
Some perspective compared to other severe flu pandemics.
Not seeing the reason behind destroying our economy … moving on, here’s the current situation for the countries.
And here is the same data, but aligned when they hit 10 deaths per ten million.
I note that the US is moving right in sync with Sweden … this is of interest because Sweden did little in the way of lockdown.
Finally, here’s the situation of the US states.
It’s not clear whether either the US or New York will top out at the values projected by the IHME model.
Best regards, stay safe,
Weekend, so some countries not reporting …
And the US states:
Well, let me start with a different chart this time. Deaths per 1 million by US state.
[Original map incorrect, replaced by the one above.]
Here are the countries.
And the alternate view of the same data.
As you may recall, I said that Sweden would NEVER have the deaths projected by the IHME model used by the US government. As shown above, on the 11th (6 days ago) they said 13,000 deaths. On the 14th (3 days ago), they said 18,000 deaths. Here’s the same graph as above, but with a standard non-logarithmic y-axis.
You can see why I’ve said since the start that the Swedish death tolls would NEVER get that high. It’s been a joke … but sadly, likely a joke that people based policy decisions on.
And the funny part? As of today, they have a new estimate for Sweden’s projected death toll. Wait for it … 5,890 deaths. Less than a third of what it was three days ago. I say they won’t make it that far. That’s still well above Italy.
Next, let me recommend a most excellent graph by Max Roser at Our World In Data. In response to my request, he made an interactive graph showing every country aligned at the same stage of the disease. I’ve highlighted US and Sweden on it here, go take a look.
Finally, US States …
I have little idea how valid these numbers are now that the CDC has said that anything even suspected of being related to COVID should be counted as a COVID death.
Best to everyone,
Let’s start with the Worldometer data. Here’s the overview:
That big kink in the US data represents a strange change. For the first time at least that I’ve noticed, the data has been changed after the fact. Yesterday, it showed two days that were somewhat higher than normal. Today, they changed the past to one really large day … grrr …
I suspect that this has to do with the CDC instruction that if the powers that be SUSPECT that COVID just MIGHT have in some way CONTRIBUTED to a death, the CDC says to call it a COVID-19 death … madness.
I fear that once the dust settles the data on this question will be so bad that nobody will be able to say whether the lockdowns did anything.
Here’s the next chart …
Note that in the dataset above, there is no big jump in the US data … go figure. Finally, here’s the various high-death countries aligned when they hit 10 deaths per ten million …
The story goes on … here are the three daily graphs. Still no breakout from Sweden as the IHME model predicts (top red horizontal line)
The IHME has actually increased their prediction of Swedish deaths (horizontal red/black dotted line at top). Madness.
A curiosity today. The other day I noted that Sweden would be how we could judge if the lockdowns were having an effect. The IHME model was finally giving lowered death estimates for most countries, but not for Sweden. I said that this was because Sweden hasn’t put many lockdown-style interventions on the country, and the model was way overestimating the effect of those interventions on other countries death totals.
In any case, on the 11th of the month, the IHME model predicted over 13,000 deaths in Sweden.
I said that was preposterous. And I put a red line way up top on my charts, the projected deaths for Sweden, to show just how far out of the ordinary (ordinary for this pandemic, that is) that would be.
So today I thought “well, maybe they’ve lowered their estimate”, so I took another look at the link above … and to my amazement, I find they’ve doubled down on the matter. Now they’re saying over 18,000 deaths in Sweden.
So … I’ve had to expand my graph vertically to add a new line, dotted red, for the new increased estimate …
Meanwhile, out of modelworld and back in the real world, Sweden is doing quite well, thank you very much. I’ve highlighted Sweden’s trail in red/black. Note that Sweden is on the same path as Switzerland, which has had lots of interventions & quarantine regs. And on the same path? The US, and Ireland.
Not much other news. Here’re the countries:
And the states plus the US:
Of all of the areas I’ve looked at, New York state has the highest number of deaths per 10 million, more than Italy, more than Spain.
And it’s interesting that Louisiana and Connecticut, which originally were doing as badly as New York, are not going to end up way up there in the stratosphere.
Best to all, health is wealth,
It being Monday, the countries and states are back to recording coronavirus deaths. Looking around I noted the following most interesting and what I’d certainly call good news. First, the two hardest-hit industrialized countries, Italy and Spain, are both well past their peak daily death count.
Netherlands has peaked as well. With France, the evidence is not so clear-cut.
The UK appears to have peaked as well. (I had another graph here, but someone pointed out there was an error in it. This is the correct one).
The US as well seems to have peaked. And presumably because those countries have all peaked, so has the world count … at least for the moment.
Finally, why have deaths in the US peaked? It’s because the states with the highest death counts, New York, New Jersey, and Louisiana, have all peaked.
So all that’s left are the usual graphs of the countries and the states. Here you go:
And the record of the states.
Conclusions? Well, I’d say that many places we’re over the first hump and going down the back side of the peak. Me, I think this is great news. If the coronavirus were a workweek, we just got past humpday Wednesday and it’s now 10 AM Thursday. Good news.
Next up? Let’s get the world back to work. People say “but if we let up on government interventions we might see a second hump”? First, it’s not clear that the kind of half-hearted self-quarantine of the western industrialized nations did a whole lot. Second, we’re much better prepared for the second wave if it comes. Third, the disease has already killed many of the most vulnerable. Fourth, we can always go back into hiding …
Me, I say the same I’ve said all along. END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN. The government pulled the wheels off of the economy. We’re past the peak danger, let’s put the wheels back on that sucker and go to work. We can still do the usual handwashing and all the rest, but people need a paycheck!
People talk a lot about the victims of the virus. For me, the prototypical victim is a single mom with two kids. After her husband took up with a woman at work and left her with the kids, she could only find work as a waitress. She’s in luck, the tips are good, she’s been holding it together … until now. Now, she is sitting at home with no job and no food for the kids, and she can’t sleep at night wondering when they’ll turn the electricity off.
Restart America now … there are far too many people in similar situations.
Not a whole lot of change today. Tomorrow is supposed to be peak medical resource use day for California. The IHME model says that New York and the US as a whole are already past that date. Might be true for both, we’ll know more by Tuesday. Weekends the data collection is … sporadic.
I’m still concerned by the CDC saying that any case where it is SUSPECTED that COVID-19 merely MIGHT BE INVOLVED in the death is enough to classify it as COVID-19 related …
Setting that aside, here’s the country data:
Sweden still not cooperating with the IHME model …
And here’s the US state data:
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN!
I noticed an oddity today.
The IHME coronavirus model was predicting numbers that were too large across the board—cases, deaths, bed need. The latest update is much smaller.
I suspect they’ve done this, not by changing disease characteristics in the model, but instead by simply assuming that the social distancing is being much more effective than they had assumed.
How will we know if this is the case?
In Sweden, they’ve done almost nothing to slow the spread—no “stay at home” order, no educational facilities closed, no non-essential services closed, no travel limits.
And I note that the IHME projected deaths for Sweden are still high—extraordinarily high in fact, at 13,211 deaths per ten million of population.
This is FOUR TIMES the per capita deaths we’ve seen in Italy, and 7 times projected US deaths. 13,211 per ten million is well off the charts. I’ve had to expand the vertical range of my charts to fit that in.
Me, I doubt those claim of deaths in Sweden very greatly. That number is way too high.
Time will tell. If Sweden does not do anywhere near that badly, we’ll know for sure that it was NOT the social distancing etc. making the difference and decreasing the death and case numbers in the IHME model. If Sweden doesn’t streak for the sky, then instead of social distancing it was some other unknown assumption incorrectly inflating the cases and death numbers. If Sweden ends up in the same range as everyone else, it will mean that the IHME model is getting largely right answers but for the wrong reasons.
Let’s see how this will age … my prediction is that the IHME has overweighted whatever social distancing effect there might be in order to give lower numbers. It’s a simple adjustment to the model.
I say that’s why the IHME prediction for Sweden is still so high, and finally, I predict that the deaths in Sweden won’t even begin approach the IHME model prediction given at the link below and shown as a horizontal red line in my graphics.
The evolution of Sweden is shown in the charts below. I’ve added a red horizontal line to show today’s IHME prediction for Sweden. I don’t think it will come anywhere near that. Note that Sweden doesn’t report on weekends, leaves “jogs” in their record.
I’ve shown the Swedish path with the red/black line. If they are headed for the red line way up at the top as the IHME model is claiming, they’re not showing any sign of it. Here’s another view of what Sweden is doing.
No report from Germany today. And if Sweden wants to beat everyone to the red finish line at the top, they’ve left it until late … here’s the US states.
Like Sweden, some states like Colorado and California don’t seem to be reporting yet this weekend.
The wave is well and truly breaking upon us in the US. New York is two days past projected peak resource use, and one day past projected peak daily deaths.
California is modeled to hit peak hospital resource use on Monday. The US as a whole is modeled to be at peak daily deaths today, and to hit peak hospital resource use tomorrow.
I guess we’ll know very soon if the model is right, but the omens look good … anyhow, here’s the state and the country graphs.
I’ve added a couple of horizontal lines, solid and dashed red. The solid red is the most recent IHME model projection of US deaths. The dashed red line is where the US deaths have to peak in order to achieve the modeled death projections.
One more graphic. This one shows the different countries aligned when they hit 10 deaths per 10 million inhabitants.
US is in the middle of the pack (red/black line), right on track with Sweden where there have been almost no government lockdowns. Go figure.
Let me start with a look at the 14 US states that are short of ICU beds. The other 36 states, about 70% of the total, have an excess of ICU beds.
Six states with shortages in the tens. Four states with shortages in the hundreds. And four states with shortages in the thousands. Curious.
I’ve been reading from several sources that covid is more like altitude sickness than it’s like bad flu. Some doctors have had success setting the ventilators to deliver high oxygen at lower pressures. Research continues.
Here’s the alternate view of the countries, aligned at 10 deaths per ten million.
And finally US deaths. I’ve added two lines. The solid red horizontal line is the new IHME model projected number of deaths, which is 60,415.
My rule of thumb is that total deaths will be about twice the deaths up to the point when the daily death rate peaks and starts to decrease. The dashed red and black level is when the daily deaths should peak IF were going to hit the 60,000 number.
Not much change … slow and steady growth, gradually decreasing slope. Sweden is still in the middle of the pack.
Onwards … here are the states.
New York and New Jersey are still more than half of the US deaths …
Meanwhile, the new guidelines from the CDC say to record COVID as the cause of death if you assume that COVID could have contributed to the death … alarmism on steroids.
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
Best to all,
Well, the bad news is that Netherlands and Germany and UK all got a big bunch of deaths, so they’re still going up.
The IHME model is now predicting total death levels by country … so I’ve added their prediction for Italy to the charts. Here’s the chart with all the countries aligned.
Hmmm … if the US hits Italy levels that will be about 100,000 deaths. Speaking of which, here’s the state data. I added the Italy projection to this one as well.
I was surprised to see that New York looks to exceed Italy on a per capita basis …
Finally, here’s the country chart.
Everybody seems to be in the slow bend mode, moving pretty much in parallel.
Still on lockdown in the forest with my dearest lady and my daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter. Family together in the hard times, at least we can walk around the neighborhood.
Stay well, my friends,
Well, things are looking up a bit. The model used by the US gov’t has dropped expected US deaths from 90,000+ to 80,000 plus. And a few countries have seen drops in daily numbers … might be temporary, might not. To be seen.
Here are the country numbers …
Seems like everyone is starting to curve to the right, meaning the progression is slowing. Here are the US state numbers.
Regards to all, stay well,
Well, I made up a couple of extra plots for your delectation, in addition to the countries and the US states. First, a plot of this year’s numbers of pneumonia deaths:
Not sure what to make of that. Dr. Roy Spencer said the CDC has said that data is incomplete, but there’s nothing about it on their webpage, and I just downloaded the data today.
Next, here’s an update on a plot I did a bit ago, with all of the countries aligned at the day when they hit 10 deaths per ten million population.
As you can see, the differences in the various health measures implemented by the different countries have made very little difference. Go figure … seems the infectiousness of this virus is enough that such measures don’t do much.
Next, here are the daily deaths for Italy and Spain:
Looks like both of those have passed the peak death time, which is good news. Now for my usual graphs, first the countries.
It appears that Germany, the UK, the US, and France have started to bend the curve. Again, good news. Finally, the states.
The countries that are over the red line seem to be starting to bend as well … we’ll see how that plays out in the next week or so, the crunch time is approaching fast.
Sweden has been in the news today because they have little in the way of lockdown measures … and their economy is humming along. See here for a discussion.
In response, I’ve added Sweden to my chart in place of Belgium, which was mostly hidden by Spain …
As you can see, there’s little difference between Sweden and its European neighbors … I’d say that the coronavirus doesn’t pay attention to the inadequate lockdowns of the Western world.
And here are the states … the march goes on, although Louisiana does seem to be bending some.
Here is today’s graph. As you can see, Belgium, Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy have continued to fall away from the straight line growth that characterizes the exploding exponential growth of the first part of the spread of infection. On the other hand, the UK, France, and the Us are still growing fast.
Italian deaths continue to drop. It appears that their infection has peaked.
Here in the states, the inexorable march to the peak hospital needs continues …
There’s an excellent website with what seems to me to be a good model here … it currently says that deaths in the first wave will be as follows:
Total US - 93,765 Alabama - 7,334
Alaska - 151 Arizona - 1,380
Arkansas - 562 California - 5,161
Colorado - 2,135 Connecticut - 1,092
Delaware - 163 District of Columbia - 220
Florida - 6,937 Georgia - 2,916
Hawaii - 376 Idaho - 397
Illinois - 2,789 Indiana - 1,083
Iowa - 1,367 Kansas - 627
Kentucky - 815 Louisiana - 1,934
Maine - 368 Maryland - 1,691
Massachusetts - 2,357 Michigan - 3,235
Minnesota - 1,061 Mississippi - 1,098
Missouri - 1,283 Montana - 270
Nebraska - 448 Nevada - 921
New Hampshire - 338 New Jersey - 2,129
New Mexico - 526 New York - 16,090
North Carolina - 1,597 North Dakota - 171
Ohio - 1,886 Oklahoma - 1,312
Oregon - 551 Pennsylvania - 1,562
Rhode Island - 265 South Carolina - 1,060
South Dakota - 206 Tennessee - 3,259
Texas - 6,128 Utah - 586
Vermont - 58 Virginia - 3,073
Washington - 1,233 West Virginia - 495
Wisconsin - 926 Wyoming - 142
Gotta say, doesn’t seem to me like cutting those state deaths by 10% or so by a lockdown and destroying the US economy in the process as a good deal, but hey, I was born yesterday.
Here’s the countries plot. The state data source has changed and I can’t be bothered to track it down and fix my code. I also include a plot below showing your chances of dying if you get Covid-19 and are otherwise healthy. More tomorrow.