Regular WUWT contributor Willis Eschenbach has been plotting the official death rate data from the Coronavirus almost daily. We will continue to add to this page as needed and as Willis makes updates.
Read the note from Willis, or Skip to Latest Plot:
My thanks to Anthony for thinking of making this a page to follow the history of these plots. I’ll be updating them daily, unless mischance and coincidence intervene, sometime just before midnight GMT, which is when the Worldometers data page refreshes for the new day.
Note that the data changes throughout the day, and there are various sources of data, so there may be some variation between your data and mine at any given instant.
For those interested in how I’ve done it, I put the R computer code online, download it by clicking here. There are two files, “Willis Functions.R” and “Coronagraph.R”. The “Willis Functions” file loads a bunch of libraries, so you may have to download one or more. It also contains the code for a host of things I use over and over, such as the lines with the black background that I like to use for clarity in my graphs.
The R code goes and gets the HTML source document for the Worldometer page. It then parses the document to obtain the various historical figures. These don’t include the most recent day, so I download and parse another page for those figures and tack them on the end.
Finally, a plea to all those in charge. The economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations is going to be huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. Think pissed off young men out of a job and on the street.
And on the positive side, as my graph clearly shows, the South Koreans have managed to contain the virus. How did they manage that?
First, they test widely, then use confirmatory tests to avoid wasting time on false positives.
Then they trace all contacts of infected people and test them, and identify and quarantine SICK people, not HEALTHY people.
My oft-infuriating good friend Steven Mosher is living in Korea at the moment. He said that when one person in an apartment building gets ill, they test the whole floor plus a couple of floors above and below where the person lives.
When a guy in a call center got the virus, he said, they tested all 250 people working there. Heck, those jokers even have phone-booth style testing facilities to increase the number of tests per day … they are on it.
In this manner, using testing, tracing, and quarantining the ill rather than the healthy, they’ve been able to control the spread very well. As of today (2020-03-20) they have only 94 deaths in the whole country and leveling out (see below) and they’re NOT locking down the entire population and destroying their economy like we are.
Let’s emulate success, folks. I don’t mind learning from experience, but generally, I prefer to learn from other people’s experiences, and we have Europe and South Korea to learn from.
Here’s the crazy, bull goose looney part no one is talking about. The US government is about to spend a trillion dollars of your and my tax money to prop up the economy whose wheels have just been taken off by the insane shelter-in-place orders of the US government. Sen. McConnell unveiled a roughly $1 trillion stimulus package on Thursday to help “mitigate the economic pain that tens of millions of Americans are already feeling”.
That trillion dollars won’t put the wheels back on. It won’t get us rolling again. It just pays us for the losses already suffered.
Do you ever think how many ventilators and hospitals and test kits and testing personnel we could buy for A TRILLION DOLLARS OF YOUR AND MY GAD FARKING TAX MONEY!!
Typical ventilator cost US$25,000, in normal times. Say you have to pay double in scarce times. Say we want a half million of them, big number, more than we’ll ever need, but why not? How much of our trillion pinche dollars of tax money remains?
Ninety-seven percent. We’ve bought a half million ventilators and have hardly dented the pile.
My point is simple. If we’re going to spend a trillion, let’s put out wartime prices with war-time high-speed bidding processes. Say that the government will pay double the peacetime costs for ventilators and mobile field hospitals and beds and the like. Focus on American made. Phone-booth testing sites? Koreans can make them? Americans can make them. Buy all that the Koreans willl sell, plus encourage US manufacturers can make them by putting tariffs on them.
Seriously … wouldn’t putting a trillion of our hard-earned dollars into that be far, far better than doling it out in dribs and drabs, in grants and loans, a bit here, an overhead cost there? Because here are two ugly truths.
Ugly Truth 1) Some good-sized proportion of the population worldwide is going to get the coronavirus. Only question is when.
Ugly truth 2) Remember that trillion dollars to pay for the losses occurred so far during the nationwide lockdown? You know how long the lockdown has been going on?
One week. One. Stinking. Week. And it’s already cost A TERABUCK OF OUR TAXPAYER MONEY. And the government is talking about it lasting a month?!? Madness of the highest order.
A trillion to prop up one week? What say we suffer an attack of sanity, cancel next week’s lockdown, and put the trillion we just saved in just one stinking week into ventilators and beds and field hospitals?
Because it will hit, and the only question is how prepared we’ll be when it hits. All this stick-your-head-in-the-sand is doing is delaying it. Why? Well, theoretically so that we can be medically prepared for it with enough beds and ventilators and the like. Which is a very good reason. Gotta have more beds and ventilators than you have sick people. Medical preparation is what we want to achieve.
Given that being medically prepared is the over-riding issue, how about we
a) stop this mad stay-at-home failed experiment,
b) get America back to work,
c) continue with all the precautions we spent all this time learning, wash my hands, don’t touch my face, no sex with fruit bats, go back to disposable plastic grocery bags, social distancing, and most importantly, spend that trillion we just saved on d) …
… you know … urgently, four-alarm urgently, wartime production urgently, getting medically prepared for the wave that we’re damn sure is going to break? Buy field hospitals. Pre-position them. Stockpile ventilators. How many field hospitals does the Army have? Put them all on standby to be rushed to an overloaded city. Buy test kits. Pay double pre-war prices for everything if some people can provide it in a crazy rush. GET READY … and critically …
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWN!!! We cannot afford a dead economy costing us a trillion a week.
Best to all,
PS—Further discussion of the economic aspect of the coronavirus epidemic, as well as of other extraneous and forbidden topics, is going on over at my blog, Skating Under The Ice.
Source of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
IMPORTANT NOTE: I use a logarithmic scale for the deaths, because on that scale exponential growth, the scary fast kind of growth, plots as a straight line. This lets us know when the increase in deaths is slowing down.
Here are the two usual plots, with a third one below.
As you can see, most of the graphs are starting to bend as the spread of the virus slows.
In the US, however, things are not so rosy … New Jersey is now above the red line where the hospitals start having trouble.
Finally, I wanted to see just how similar all of the trajectories of growth were. I was getting the sense that the different interventions and lockdown weren’t having much effect. So I aligned the country death records all at the time when they got to 10 deaths per 10 million population. Here’s that result:
It appears that short of a total police-state style of tracking and tracing every person in the country, as is practiced in South Korea, the various interventions and lockdowns aren’t doing a whole lot …
Stay well, dear friends.
Here are today’s charts, along with a couple others I made up today. I have removed China and Iran and replaced them with Germany and Belgium.
I find it interesting that the slope of the lines as they cross the line at 100 deaths per ten million is the same everywhere but Korea … it suggests that in Western countries, the different social mores and habits and different family structures and living habits and diets and variations in population density and different amounts of “social distancing” aren’t making any significant difference in the increase in the deaths.
Me, I don’t think that the current US lockdown is doing much except destroying the economy.
Next, here are the US states:
Not a lot of changes … next, here are daily deaths around the planet:
Hmmm … we’ll watch that one. Finally, here is a look at the US death statistics.
This chart makes it obvious that to date, at least, the problem is not the total number of deaths. The problem is that they are concentrated in a few states, overloading their medical systems.
With the flu, it’s distributed fairly evenly across the US. Every town and hamlet gets some. But the coronavirus is not like that at all. New York, Louisiana, New Jersey, they’re all getting hit hard … and to date, not one death in Wyoming.
Finally, lest you think I’ve lost the plot because I say end the lockdown, here are 12 eminent medical people saying the same thing.
Things are fairly unchanged. There is a hopeful blip on the US path. The pressure on the states medical system increases.
The slight downward kick of US deaths that is visible in the countries plot is not seen in the states plot. The state plot uses a totally different dataset, and the US line is the sum of the deaths in all states.
I’ve added a red line at an arbitrary value of three times the maximum monthly flu season deaths. It represents a hospital load danger zone. When countries or states go over that line their hospitals are getting stretched thin. Here’s that chart for the countries.
With more time since the start, we can see the accomplishment of the Koreans. Since about day 15 their death rate has been rising exponentially, as indicated by the straight line, but at a much slower rate. Compare it with the exponential rate in France, for example.
And here is the situation in the US.
The three states whose total deaths are over the red area, which are Washington (WA), New York (NY), and Louisiana (LA), are all having problems with their hospital loads.
I’ve updated the R computer code for the countries chart to reflect the ugly fact that worldometer keeps changing their page structure.
Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, no making merry with naked pangolins, wear a mask, stay well dear friends,
Well, the conditions are not much different today.
I’ve added the Netherlands. Curiously, their trajectory is just about identical to that of Spain.
Oh, yeah. I added US deaths to the scale on the right, to give an idea of the speed of exponential growth …
In the US, conditions seem unchanged. All states are in the earlier stage of the spread, the basically exponential growth period where the numbers double every few days.
And here’s the number of days that it’s taking the deaths to double:
That’s what I call … too fast …
Well, the blag-snagging corn-flappers over at Johns Hopkins University took down their historical state data … so I had to find another source and totally re-write my R code to recreate the state graph. Finally done, and I’m a happy boy. Here it is …
And here’s the latest one for the countries …
Looks like Iran, Italy and Spain are working their way slowly down. France and the US not so much …
Sorry for the late post, here’s the latest. Italy and Iran continue to bend. Spain and UK, maybe. France and US … not good.
Late here, 11 PM. Life in lockdown is peaceful. Our daughter, her husband, and our 7-month grand-daughter came to enjoy the lockdown in our forest, it’s been wonderful.
Stay well, all,
I mentioned yesterday that I’d have more on Italy today. My post, entitled The Italian Connection, published this morning.
Next, I finally found some US state data, and made up a new plot for the US states. I kept the X and Y scales the same as in my previous graphs so that they can be compared. I also added an interesting calculation—IF the growth rates don’t change, how long until the coronavirus deaths in each state hits the typical US flu death level, which is about 1,000 deaths per ten million population. Here’s that graph.
YIKES! Time is already short. However, there’s a bit of good news from other countries, including Italy
Both Italy and Iran, as well as the UK to a lesser degree, appear to be bending a bit … good news. It means the spread is slowing down.
However, the same can’t be said for the US, Spain, and France. We’re all still straight-lining it … not good.
Here’s the latest graph. I’ve removed Hubei Province since it’s gone quiet, and I’ve added France to the mix. Italy is still in the lead, more on that tomorrow.
I also made up a new plot, this one showing the percentage of the population infected. CAVEAT: The total number of cases is, inter alia, a function of the amount of testing. So these numbers are an indication, not hard and fast.
I was surprised to see Iceland and Luxembourg beating Italy out for the top spot. Note also that even in the worst-hit country only two people per thousand (0.2%) have coronavirus …
I’ve added a few things to the plot. One is the data for Hubei Province in China. That’s where Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, is located. Some 96% of all Chinese cases have occurred in that province. Because it has a much smaller population than China, deaths per 10 million is much larger. I put it up to see how bad it could get and to my surprise … Italy is worse …
I also added California, to see if I could find any reduction in cases from the insane “shelter-in-place” orders that are killing our economy. Early days for seeing any changes yet, we’re only a few days in. California data is cadged from Wikipedia, if someone has a better source let me know, either on Twitter @weschenbach or at my website “Skating Under The Ice“. Click on “Tips and Notes” at the top of the page.
Finally, I added a blue band across the top, which shows the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimate of the deaths from flu. Their range is from 22,000 to 55,000. As you can see, Italy is up in that range.
I also calculated how long it would take the US to get up to the middle of the flu range, which would be 38,000 deaths. Using the recent steepest section of the US data and assuming no change in the US rates (large assumptions both), I calculate it at eighteen days. And for the world, again using just the recent fast-rising section, I calculate it will reach that range in forty days.
Now, there are lots of things that can bend those curves downwards or upwards … so my estimates are not hard numbers. But it’s better than a wild guess.
Here’s the graph:
After I put the two-letter abbreviations for the countries in response to a request from a colorblind web friend, someone said that “CH” is the official code for Switzerland … so I’ve put in the full names to avoid confusion. Much clearer that way. I’ve also added the time to avoid confusion due to the minute-by-minute updating of the data from the various countries.
Here’s my latest daily update of coronavirus deaths. Case statistics are meaningless because of differences in testing. I’ve added the UK. Good news and bad news. Bad news, after two days of declining deaths Italy went up. Good news, only 11 deaths in the US. [UPDATE: US numbers have changed, and I’ve added Spain to the mix.]
Here’s today’s coronavirus update. Deaths in Italy are down for the second day, so their curve is starting to bend. Not so for Iran or the US, where daily deaths are still rising. However, the US started later than the others, so it’s still early days.
Here’s an update on the current coronavirus situation. Since my last graph I added Iran and the World to the mix …