Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I’ve read claims on the web that the job losses in the US were due to the virus itself, and to the fear of the virus making people cut back on activities. The claims are that the job loss is more from that, and not so much a result of the American Lockdown. So I thought I’d take a look at the weekly new claims for unemployment insurance. Of course, the different states have been hit differently by the changes. Here’s the graph of weekly new unemployment claims for one of the least affected states, Oregon.
Figure 1. Weekly new unemployment claims, Oregon, since 1999. “Usual” refers to the one-year period preceding the record rise.
I saw that and I thought something was wrong with the program I’d written to download and graph the data. But nope. In fact, every single state’s new unemployment claims looks just like that. I said YIKES! I’d heard that things were bad, but I had no idea things were that bad.
Now, there are a few interesting things about Figure 1. First, you can see the results of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis in the increased unemployment peaking in 2009. We thought unemployment was bad at that time … and it was.
Since then, new unemployment claims had been steadily decreasing.
You can also see that this increase in Oregon unemployment was not caused by the coronavirus. Nor was it caused by fears of the coronavirus. It was a result of the American Lockdown.
Finally, Oregon is doing better than almost all other states, and it is still seeing eleven times the number of unemployed as was typical for the previous year. Wow. That’s the good news?
Next, here’s a state from the middle of the pack, California. It has seen a seventeen-fold increase in unemployment, with over two million people out of work in California alone.
Figure 2. Weekly new unemployment claims, California, since 1999. “Usual” refers to the one-year period preceding the record rise.
Just as in Oregon, the jump in unemployment was sudden, and coincided with the American Lockdown.
Here’s the truly crazy part. There have been just under a thousand deaths in California. Bending the curve didn’t save them, nor was it supposed to save them. Instead, it was supposed to have delayed the hospitalizations and deaths so they hit over weeks rather than days. We don’t know, and may never know, the extent of that delay if any.
We do know that most of the deaths are among the group you might call “at death’s door”.
So in California, we’ve thrown at least two million people out of work in order to delay, but not prevent, the deaths of a thousand or so people, most of whom had other serious illnesses.
Am I the only person who thinks that making two million people jobless, merely to delay but not prevent a thousand deaths, is a bad deal for society?
Let me close my look at state-level data with a state that you’d think would have seen increased unemployment from the virus itself, and not just by governmental action. Between fear of flying, fear of crowds, and fear of the virus itself, I expected Hawaii to show a different pattern from the two above. Here’s their unemployment record:
Figure 3. Weekly new unemployment claims, Hawaii, since 1999. “Usual” refers to the one-year period preceding the record rise.
To my surprise, no increase in unemployment due to the virus itself. But once again unemployment is way, way up, thirty times the usual amount Normally Hawaii sees four thousand new claims every three weeks, as they saw right up to the week ending March 21. But now they have over a hundred thousand unemployed in three weeks and counting … madness.
Finally, here’s the corresponding graph for the entire US.
Figure 4. Weekly new unemployment claims, US, since 1999. “Usual” refers to the one-year period preceding the record rise.
Twenty-one times the normal three-week count of new unemployment claims … and fifteen million unemployed.
But wait, as they say on TV, “There’s More!”
As with all such data, it takes a bit of time for the Fed to collect it and post it up. The most recent data on all of the graphs is the most recent data the Fed has posted—I pull the data from the Fed site for each graph as I create it. That data is for the week ending April 4th. I’m writing this on the 18th of April. So there are two weeks of unposted data up to the present.
We have to assume that the new unemployment claims won’t be back to pre-lunacy levels any time soon. During the week ending two weeks ago (2020-04-04 in Figure 4) there were Six. Million. New. Unemployment. Claims.
And there were another six million the week before that. For that two weeks, the US was losing jobs at a rate of almost a million more unemployed EVERY DAY!
So perhaps ten million still in the pipeline, 15 million filed claims already. That’s 25 million unemployed …
The human carnage in that number, twenty-five million, the wrecked dreams, the failed businesses, the broken relationships, the stress on marriages, the increase in suicides and domestic violence …
There are about 130 million people working full-time in the US. As of two weeks ago, governmental action had thrown more than ten percent of them out of work, with more since then.
This sudden spike in joblessness is totally unprecedented. It needs to be stopped immediately. Hundreds of thousands more unemployed every single day that this madness continues is simply not acceptable. Too much pain, far too little gain.
Here’s my plan. You had to know I have a plan. Here’s my plan.
Whenever any governmental official forcibly throws people out of work by unilaterally making their business illegal, that official and everyone under their purview should immediately lose all salary, benefits, housing, insurance, transportation, and any other benefits.
Now I can hear you thinking, “How can Willis justify that?” Simple. It’s under the same doctrine they use. They’ve divided human activities into two groups. Only one of these groups is permitted. The other is forbidden.
Of course, everyone making a living doing something which is now forbidden is suddenly thrown out of their job. Wife and husband work for a now-forbidden company? Sorry … go home and fight with each other.
And to return to the question of how I could justify throwing all those government people out of work?
The answer is in the fact that the two groups of activities, one permitted and one forbidden, the government calls these two groups “Essential” and “Non-Essential” activities.
I rest my case.
So. What should we do?
I say put on any and all health and sanitary regulations we can think of that do not pull the wheels off of the economy. We don’t have to destroy the economy in order to slow the progress of the virus.
I say every part of the economy depends on every other part. As a result, excessive “staging” will retard the resurgence of the economy.
I say that “staging” is more judgment calls by the unqualified that will still outlaw people’s jobs.
I say that every day that the pluted bloatocrats governmental officials dither and sit on their thumbs and spin, more than half a million more people lose their jobs. Unconscionable.
I say that another layer of specialists and meetings and committees is simply putting or keeping people out of work.
And as a result of all of that, I say what I’ve said from the start …
End the American lockdown now. Not next month. Not next week. Now. Not in “stages”. Not in “phases”. Now.
Lots of talk about May 1. Gotta love the symbolism. May Day. I hope we’re back to work well before that.
But if not, let me suggest a peaceful workers revolt, the one where on May 1st we all just go forward to work. Not back to work. Forward to work. Everyone goes to their usual place of work on May 1st. No fanfare. Wear masks. Social distance. Wear gloves. Testing where appropriate. Whatever you need. And go forward to work.
Will that lead to flareups of coronavirus? I suspect so. However, future flareups will happen whether we go to work all at once or bit by bit. That virus will not go gentle into that good night no matter what we do …
Protip for those in charge. Historically, and for good reasons, in epidemics governments have used extraordinary powers to quarantine the sick. This was done to slow the spread of the disease, just as we’re attempting to do today.
Currently, however, it’s the healthy who are getting quarantined …
And to return to today’s point—quarantining the sick doesn’t destroy the economy and drive 25 million people out of work. Here are some of the measures cities used during the Spanish Flu:
Lots of things we can do to flatten the curve without flattening the economy in the process.
Finally, a plea for some perspective on this pandemic. As pandemics go, it’s not a rock star. Here’s a comparison.
I’ve lived through two pandemics with far higher death counts, and today they are hardly even remembered …
My best to you all, stay healthy, stay well, smell the flowers …
w.
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“Whenever any governmental official forcibly throws people out of work by unilaterally making their business illegal, that official and everyone under their purview should immediately lose all salary, benefits, housing, insurance, transportation, and any other benefits.”
A good start but not enough, Willis. Such a government official – or non-elected MD giving lawless orders – must be tried, removed from office and jailed. We must teach future power-mad morons not to do something like this again.
As G.K. Chesterton said, “It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged.”
53% of the dead in New York State are under 74 years old. The average American at 74 has a life expectancy of 14 years. Not exactly dying tomorrow.
And NYC comprises what % of the population of New York State?
Nice cherries you got there.
A link supporting the 14 additional years the average 74 year old American should expect to live would be nice, but absent that:
I’ve a hard time believing the average American at 74 years old can expect another 14 years but it will stand until someone else asks for a link to proof.
You might consider that: “The average American at 74” is a blend of the healthy ones and those whose span is being extended by medication and regular trips to facilities where they’re more likely to catch the WuFlu than if they wandered around New York City. One cohort is generally susceptible to seasonal respiratory illness, the other has about the same survival rates as the rest of us. One requires frequent trips for medical attention, the other doesn’t.
One trait they both share is: without a functioning economy, one where labor is generating money to pay for medical care, both will die sooner.
To be fair, I looked up life expectancy at 74 and the 2016 SSA tables had males at 11.8 years, females at 13.7.
I should be so lucky, and I consider myself healthy.
In the UK 14% of covid deaths had a life expectancy of 1 month
harvesting
Ventilators are ki!llers.
In NYC they just make up mortality numbers. The latest addition was a 50% increase of 3700 who were presumed to have died of corona-chan without having tested positive. A real racket.
In NYC they just make up mortality numbers. The latest addition was a 50% increase of 3700 who were presumed to have died of corona-chan without ever having tested positive. A real racket.
Eric, either your information or you math skills suck. Average life expectancy in US is just under 80.
Willis – great analysis. But there are two issues not addressed here or on the sites I have looked at. The first is the last two parts of Fifth Amendment to the Constitution, “. . .nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.” Are these two property issues germane? Has Government (in)action deprived people of property or taken property?
The second issue relates to the epidemiological models that are the root cause of this economic disaster. Commercial computer models are slathered in exculpatory clauses in the end-user license agreements. These absolve the suppliers of the computer models and prevent the end-users from suing the model authors. But the EULAs are between the model authors and the users (CDC, various government entities). The public suffering damage is not a party to the EULAs. Can the public via class action get compensation from the modelers? I would be happy to get $1, knowing that the full $25 million has bankrupted the modelers.
Willis,
Please correct this scenario. It is about cost: benefit from lockdown.
Mohatdebos earlier noted unemployed getting $600 + $400 from Fed and State. That money comes mainly from previous taxes. The recipient might not notice much difference from the change of $ source. In time, that tax source will run out. The way to keep flow going is to tax those able to pay more, like the wealthy, and to restart certain businesses that are agreed to be essential.
People formerly on unemployment do not feel much difference. Pensioners, etc. What about others? Here we need to talk essential and non-essential jobs.
Does it really hurt the economy if a restaurant goes out of business? Former customers will find other food sources. This is an example of small non-essential.
Does it really hurt the economy if a major national airline goes bust? Not really for people carriers, maybe for freighters. People simply do not spend on tickets, they have the money for spending on essentials, less drain on the tax pool, but more unemployed airline staff to live off it.
There is scenario after scenario, but some broad principles emerge. Like, the exercise is incomplete unless and until the money flow from ordinary people to billionaires is reversed. Like, there are some essential jobs that must not be shut down, example medical treatment of the sick and disabled. Like, it boils down to maintaining jobs that create new wealth and not worrying so much about jobs that recycle existing wealth with a cut on the side (the old Christine Keeler appendix joke). The basic thesis is that lockdowns can go on for a long time if we place a realistic value on shutting down non-essentials, the money recyclers. Here we meet a social obstacle because this includes sectors like banking, insurance, gambling, commercial sport, alcohol and tobacco, tourism, advertising, entertainment, the media and so on. None of these is really essential, particularly at present bloated levels. Of course, these sectors have loud voices and have shown abilities to complain about endangerment of their cash flows.
This is a rambling account of a complex subject viewed from an angle where many people have never gone. I do not have 50 pages here to elaborate, so I will just conclude with some broad assertions.
Do not imagine that a cost:benefit analysis of a national lockdown means very much if done with conventional thinking. The true consequences of a lockdown are much deeper and less conventional than we might imagine.
We are at the start of a shock to established ways of life (which I define as protection of existing wealth benefits). Use the shock to introduce and examine how society can change its entrenched ways and be better for all.
Ask not what my $ can do for me, but what my $ can do for my country.
Geoff S
(I have not gone stupid, just expressing some concepts in attention-seeking ways, not very good at that.)
“, not very good at that.”
On the contrary, it leaps out of the page, because it addresses the elephant in the room – “the fundamental transformation” of economies around the world, that we are all looking forward to so much.
Well , maybe not all.
Geoff: “we need to talk essential and non-essential jobs.” Essential to whom?
Further, who decides what is “essential?” Is a computer programmer’s job “essential?” A government bureaucrat, who decides which jobs are “essential?” A small shopkeeper? A barber? A hotel keeper? A priest? A psychologist? A politician? An “illegal” immigrant who picks fruit? A university professor that researches “climate change?” A taxi driver? An entrepreneur? A soldier?
And you say, “Ask not what my $ can do for me, but what my $ can do for my country.” You were a government employee, were you not? Those of us, whose careers and $ (or £) have been screwed by the political class, think exactly the opposite. The flow of wealth for the last 40 years has been to the big boys corporate and political, from us human beings. From the politically poor, to the politically rich.
But you’re right: “We are at the start of a shock to established ways of life.” May it be a shock for the better.
I would really love to see a graph like this for Australia.
The rationale (if you can call it that) seems to be that a death from COVID-19 is a uniquely tragic event, and all measures must be applied to prevent it. Meanwhile, everybody eventually dies, and many people die of infectious diseases, and yet we don’t lock down the country to slow the progress of any of those diseases.
The point that we don’t sacrifice the economy to limit deaths from the flu is valid. The panic over COVID-19 seems to be based on the novelty of it, and the initial belief that it would kill millions of people of all ages. We now know beyond dispute that the risk of death is negligibly small in people under 50, and that half of the dead are 80 are older. Most of the media accounts of the disease either bury the fact that so many of the dead are very old deep in the story, or just ignore that fact altogether.
It’s as if we are pretending that human beings are immortal, and are furiously reacting to the latest evidence that people really do decline and die. It’s as if we think that sacrificing material prosperity will somehow please a vain God, who will then reward us by abolishing death.
“The point that we don’t sacrifice the economy to limit deaths from the flu is valid.”
No, but many people promote the mostly useless and sometimes harmful flu vaccine, or make it mandatory in the US.
Because the Left doesn’t really believe in “my body, my choice”. It’s “my body, the CDC, FDA, or governor’s choice”.
Here’s North Carolina:
As you can see, a significant declining trend over the past twenty years turned into a … rocket stick (as opposed to MM’s hockey stick).
I used the noted data source and graphed it using LibreOffice Calc., plus a bit of refining with GIMP.
Pictures can be inspiring, … or terrifying, in this case. I’ll be sending this to the governor as a picture-worth-a-thousand-words additional squeak in the crowd to re-open the state.
… and if anybody could possibly question whether lock downs caused it, then consider this:
LoL
Sweden, not closing work, not closing restaraunts, not closing bars. They must be shooting through the roof with Covid-19? Nope, they are better than most of the rest of Europe, about the same as us on a per capita basis. Japan is about the best large country in the world, they are still packing subway trains, and going to work. Thank god for these examples, otherwise, we’d never know what we don’t know. For instance we didn’t know that shutting down work would be completely ineffective in slowing the spread of the disease. Now we know. Lets get back to work.
How many minority ghettos does Sweden have?
How many large cities with air pollution does Sweden have?
So are you saying that if a state, province or country can rate itself sufficiently like Sweden, as in “no big ghettos really”, then those jurisdictions can immediately take themselves off any business lock downs? I’m sure that there are many millions of people around the world who would love to get back to work on that basis!
In reality, I’m pretty sure they have industry and pollution, and relatively poor areas in cities like Stockholm, not that much different, in the most general aspect of things, from any other major country where people actually live? If there is no bad ‘signal’ of increased spread of CoVID disease that anyone can verify from Sweden’s *not* having business lock downs, then *that* is a definite sign that the lock downs don’t help much. Trying to say that business lock downs ‘obviously’ must have worked in Spain or Italy, because ‘Sweden doesn’t count’ is really just seeing what one wants to see, confirmation bias, excuse making!
Mentioning Spain, that country apparently has a quite high count of’ total cases per million’ , that being ‘4191’ right now, as listed on the chart at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Now, thinking of Spain with over 4000 cases per million, just compare that to the number for neighboring Portugal, at ‘1982’ cases per million. Say what, not even half as many cases per million, for a country right next door? Explanation anyone, like Portugal must have locked down ever so much more tightly than Spain, or maybe those bad Spanish people touch their face twice as much, etc? Note that the “tests per million” for Spain and Portugal is quite similar, so the “cases” number *should* compare, but it doesn’t! If there is any real explanation for the patchiness of the spread of this virus, I certainly haven’t heard it. So it is pretty hard to justify economy wrecking procedures when one has no idea if those are even helping?
I was pointing out that in the US the highest number of cases and the most deaths are in locations that have:
1) significant minority ghettos
2) air pollution
Is there a connection? I don’t know but I don’t think that has been looked into.
Just want to be sure comparisons are apples to apples.
I farm and I haven’t stopped. Neither have my neighbors. Our rural town is busy. All the stores are open, even the Big Boxes. Some retailers have had record weeks, selling their shelves bare.
I’m not sure how that relates to the rest of the country. The Big Cities may be in total freefall for all I know: tumbleweeds in the glass and concrete canyons, fearful urbanites peeking out their tiny windows, while Big City cops are busy arresting the occasional escapee from solitary confinement.
Mr. Eschenbach is exactly correct, though. State government coffers are stripped. The functionaries cannot be paid much longer, because states don’t print money. PERS funds have dried up. The governors are demanding the Feds bail them out, but Congress is dysfunctional to the max.
So the troughsuckers may be up the creek. Furlough the Government; they have always been non-essential.
But tell them not to worry. I’ll give them a job in my fields chopping weeds with short-handled hoes. And when they ban diesel fuel, I’ll yoke them to my plow. Because useless mandarins have to eat, too.
And Furlough Academia especially. Every time I read another quacky climate research paper with tree rings and funky models I am reminded of what Dana said to Venkman in Ghostbusters, “You know, you don’t act like a scientist. You’re more like a game show host.”
At the end of the day government has to let us know what level of death is acceptable for an infectious disease. The left dances around this issue and never answers the question. In a country like the USA is 40k allowable or 100k ? Because the bottom line is that infectious disease is not going away and will be here for years. The first argument they used was lockdown to not overflow hospitals. But that argument no longer holds water because many areas of the country are ok with hospital capacity.
The hard cold fact is that we do NOT lockdown for flu, but locking down would save flu deaths. So why don’t we lock down for flu ? The only answer is the politicians accept a level of death from flu but won’t admit it. Frank and honest discussion is important and I have yet to see that.
Stevek
+1
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-the-job-killing-democrats
Newt Gingrich: Like Marie Antoinette, Princess Pelosi enjoys luxuries but ignores needs of desperate people
“”So, while voting to starve small businesses, Pelosi wanted America to see her in front of “the best luxury refrigerator.” She then went a step further and explained: “And we just restocked the ice cream for Easter Sunday because we were, shall we say, enjoying – I don’t know what I would have done without ice cream.” “”
“. . . her highness, the princess of San Francisco, is smothering her anxieties with $11.60-a-pint ice cream while making you go bankrupt.”
That one clip will feature prominently in an AOC-endorsed primary challenger’s ads, John. Does a Republican even run for election in her district?
“But if not, let me suggest a peaceful workers revolt, the one where on May 1st we all just go forward to work. Not back to work. Forward to work. Everyone goes to their usual place of work on May 1st. No fanfare. Wear masks. Social distance. Wear gloves. Testing where appropriate. Whatever you need. And go forward to work.”
Well, I can’t join your planned peaceful workers revolt, because I am already working, but we could pretend I am part of a peaceful workers revolt.
Question: How many people work in jobs related to travel, hotels and restaurants. So you have international travel and travel related to things like business conventions.
I think Japan shouldn’t cancelled the 2020 Olympics{moved to 2021}, I think should possibly delay it by maybe month, perhaps.
But question when do we open international air travel?
I quite happy to keep air travel to China closed indefinitely. I think no one in free world should travel to China until we at least get some questions, answered.
But I think we open the daycare {public schools] on Monday- get kid going 1/2 week and less kids in classroom and try that for week and see when the kid can go 5 days a week. So there a fair amount jobs connected to that. If kids can go to school every week day, then parents could go to work every week day.
As far as public transportation, I don’t want you want buses full of passengers, in near term, but maybe by May 1.
Willis,
I’m with you.
Here in Mariposa the town is almost a ghost town, with older people scared to move. Zero cases in teh County.
In Fresno, I’m perceiving more and more people are venturing out in their cars and on sidewalks. I think people are fed up. They are tired and are recognizing that 300 cases out of 750,000 residents doesn’t make sense.
Ben Shapiro had stats on his show today about the age breakdown of deaths. Almost zero for less than 15 years. Very few for under 40. Some for under 65. Vast majority are over 65 and with detrimental diseases that were already killing them. Somebody is hiding these stats.
In my county the health officer admitted to me that he reports case numbers, not per capita numbers, because he says that’s what people expect and understand. I think he is also afraid that per capita stats would show the real story.
I am glad I am retired, but I am devastated emotionally and financially by the loses in my funds. Scary personal decisions may be coming.
Yes, the lock down has been successful. Way too successful. It must end soon. Thanks fully, the Trump Admin is starting to say the right things, but I fear it is too late for many small businesses, farmers, dairies, hairdressers, etc.
“So how many Grannies are you willing to kill so that you can get back to work?” will be the question you get…So what’s your recommended answer to that ?
re: So how many Grannies are you willing to kill so that you can get back to work?” will be the question you get
NONE of you ppl seem to understand nature, or natural cycles, like the life and death cycle; the Grim Reaper is simply “front loading” (look that term up) the forth-coming winter flu cycle with deaths earlier in the year rather then those that would first succumb in the fall or early in winter this calendar year.
You (1) ASSUME everybody lives forever and (2) that flu/seasonal viruses do not add or change the ‘timing’ of seasonal deaths.
The entire basis for the Wuhan death rate is bogus, ginned up to evoke fear. Look at the CDC guidelines for attributing any death to the virus.
Stanford’s recent report says there are 50-80 times more people who have had it than tested, so most likely the death rate is below the flu.
I want to go back to work!!
Willis writes
I’m late to this party and I expect its already been mentioned but many of the job losses will have been because of reduction in (foreign) tourism and that’s not going to be fixed by ending the lock downs.
Sorry, Tim, but if the job losses were from the reduction in foreign tourism we’d have seen them before the lockdown … but we haven’t seen that anywhere, including Hawaii where I’d expected to find it for the very reasons you mentioned.
Given that, I can only conclude that the lockdowns are in fact responsible for the job losses.
w.
Does that allow for lag? On both being let go and getting onto the unemployed lists?
There is no question a “tourist job” cant be done from home but it also cant be done with no tourists.
Tim, the unemployment applications spiked immediately when the lockdowns were put into place, so I’m not buying the idea of some significant “lag”. For most people I’ve known, if they lose their job in the morning they’re at the unemployment office that afternoon …
w.
Well whether the trigger was the lock down or not, the fact remains that many jobs aren’t viable until tourism picks up again. In my home State in Australia, we’re heavily tourist oriented and according to the Government statistics, 17.2% of jobs directly rely on tourists.
We’ve been consulting with a building contractor to remodel a 2-car garage.
Now we are waiting for the crew to be allowed to work. In Washington State that might be May 4th. Our Great Leader Jay will decide.
No tourists involved!
Right. So when the lock downs end, many people will return to work. But people in the tourism industry…not so much.
This thread is about causes for unemployment in the light of the virus.
Tim
A Novel thought is to let the market determine the outcome not a central government lockdown.
Mmmm, let’s see — forbid people from working on a mass scale, … unemployment skyrockets beyond any figure known in my own state by twice the amount of any other time in the past TWENTY YEARS.
Let us debate constructively the possible causes.
Really?
People are so black and white. It’s got to be all or nothing with causes it seems.
This is an interesting observation. About 20 years ago was 911 where US aviation immediately stopped and tourism similarly crashed. The causes of unemployment are many and varied but dont underestimate the impact of tourism on the figures.
This Economic lockdown is completely insane.
A recent Massachusetts Wuhan flu antibody test showed 33% tested positive, with the vast majority being completely asymptomatic…. grrrrrr…..
This crazy lockdown combined with the equally insane $6 trillion Wuhan bill recently passed may very well create a global economic collapse far exceeding the Great Depression.
The Fed’s disastrous money printing to pay for this madness may also lead to hugh inflation and may even lead to hyperinflation if they don’t stop printing money like toiket.
In addition, all the toxic waste the Fed is adding to the “assert” portion of their ledger can’t be unwound because so much of it is worthless.
The lunatic Left wants to the economy locked down at least until the November elections, but not to “save lives”, but rather to increase their chances of winning the presidency, and get/maintain majorities in the House and Senate…
This is stupid lockdown is all about the Left weaponizing the Wuhan flu to gain political power and get as many people as possible dependent on the government for their livelihood, and “paid” for by printed funny money…
The Leftist political and media hacks need to held responsible for the panic they inflamed and the insane spending, lockdown and agenda-driven policies they‘ve implemented under the guise of “saving lives” from the Wuhan flu…
Leftists’ Wuhan flu disinformation and destructive policies are criminal in scope.
As Leftists like to say, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”, which they haven’t…
If we continue to lock down, arguing in the extreme, we get to a hunter-gatherer society. The people who survive are then doing essential work.
Somewhere down that path we meet conditions that are are different to now, but not automatically worse. With thought, we can imagine societies better than present because there is less load on people to pay for non-essentials.
Lsson, we should not automatically seek back to business as before. We should not do cost:benefit purely in $ but include intangibles. Ask if there are some sectors you would rather get rid of. The is no $ concept in hunter-gatherer societies at that far end of the spectrum. Geoff S.
Is it even physically possible for this many people to be hunter gatherers? — I think not. First, we would have to have lots of brutal killing, the likes of which have never been seen before, in order to weed out the weak who would be competing for resources with the strong. … Lot’s of gruesome dead bodies would litter the landscape. In other words, first the strongest would hunt the weakest — doing the very thing that the virus would have done, except not as bloody and brutal.
I suppose, if you prefer an even more exciting train of events, then that would be the way to go.
Speaking for myself, I would prefer the less stressful alternative.
Geoff, please list those sectors of the economy you would eliminate.
Willis,
Thank you for another informative post. My condolences for having to put up with the juvenile and infantile commenters who think that only China Virus deaths are preventable. I would be much more open to their criticism if they were donating a nice chunk of their salary or wealth to the multitudes who have been forced out of work by the MSM and DemoKKKrat overreaction to this serious illness unnecessarily spread around the world by the Chinese Communist Party’s paranoia and ineptitude. We MUST hold the Chicoms responsible for the extent of this contagion but should never forget how the MSM and DemoKKKrats did everything in their power to exacerbate the situation and shift the blame to President Trump. Now they are trying to extend the length of the suffering with blatantly partisan policies and no concern for the vast majority of the US citizenship who are affected far more by the shutdown than the virus!
What is the difference between slavery and Communism/Progressivism? Just asking for a friend.
Slavery is what it is. … Communism/Progressivism is slavery that denies what it is.
Willis
You always ask people to quote the words they have issues with, so here goes:
“Am I the only person who thinks that making two million people jobless, merely to delay but not prevent a thousand deaths, is a bad deal for society? ”
I take issue most of all with the word “merely”.
The lockdown is about much more than the number of deaths. I really don’t know why you persist with using this as the sole metric for the importance and effectiveness of the lockdown. It is important to lower the curve for ther reasons such as:
Ensuring enough ventilator and ICU capacity at any one time
Ensurig hospitals are not swamped or even closed for lack of medical worksers, so that other diseases can be treated as well
Having enough mortuary capacity at any one time
Keeping critical facilities open, such as food processing plants
Ensuring the supply chains for food and other essentials keep operating
Buying time for testing facilities to be developed and rolled out and maybe even for a vaccine to be developed
I do not underestimate the economic impact of the Lockdown – it could be much larger than many people imagine – but we need to buy time and use it effectively to be able to move onwards from this virus.
I said, regarding California:
AndyL April 19, 2020 at 1:03 am replied
Not an issue in California.
Not happening, in fact the opposite is happening in most places. Other diseases are NOT being treated, and some hospitals are going broke with few of either COVID nor non-COVID patients.
Again, not an issue in California.
Huh? I’m not seeing how the lockdown does that.
The lockdown has had the exact opposite effect on that, snarling up supply chains and transportation systems.
Maybe … but only if you can show that the Western-style lockdowns actually work. Since Sweden has about the same death rate as the US, without a lockdown or much in the way of social distancing, I fear you’ll have a hard time showing that the lockdown did much.
Heck, South Dakota didn’t lock down and it has one of the lowest death rates in the US … go figure.
Regards,
w.
Willis,interesting point:
I was looking at the map on the https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/ page and noticed New Mexico has way more deaths/M than Arizona!
Back in the 1980’s I lived both places for a few months and didn’t much of a difference.
Does NM have stricter bans than AZ?
Or, is there another explanation?
Willis
you have nitpicked my examples without engaging my main point. Why do you persist with using the number of deaths as the sole metric for the importance and effectiveness of the lockdown?
Andy, I use deaths as the metric of all aspects of the pandemic because the other measure in general use, confirmed cases, is merely a function of testing. Double the testing and you’ll double the confirmed cases. Cut testing in half and you’ll think cases are decreasing.
w.
This flu is bad
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218
Poor Ecuadorans can no longer afford to buy food since the economy collapsed. Many of them are chronically malnourished anyways. That’s what’s responsible for the large death numbers.
but it’s the beeb, so it’s fake news, or does this only apply to climate news? hmm
It puzzles me why people are disappointed that these things are not happening in their country and complain about empty hospitals.
“disappointed ”
In the left coast State of Washington the politicians made serious errors in judgement, easily seen at the time by many.
They brought an Army hospital unit, got it set up and then closed it without treating anyone. They opened a recently closed bankrupt hospital in Yakima, WA for non-virus people — no information provided since doing so. I wonder why.
So I am not disappointed.
WUWT will not print the words describing my feelings regarding our government officials.
In the rural county where we live not a single person has died from this virus. No one. Zero.
I do know people whose business has died.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/taiwans-vice-president-chen-chien-jen-countrys-fight-covid-19/
to be prepared like Taiwan, US needs about 260,000 ICU beds and 200K ventilators.
get cracking
“200K ventilators”
Only if you want more people to die.
https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1250037261024059394
Are you paying, Mr. Mosher?
Excellent work Willis. Please keep providing a sane voice as it is refreshing to read your considered data based views. Thanks
End the American lockdown now. Not next month. Not next week. Now. Not in “stages”. Not in “phases”. Now.
I agree mostly. The lockdowns were state actions, and the ending can be by state action on a state-by-state basis. The New York metropolitan area and New Orleans might want to keep theirs for a while, but there is no longer any justification for California, S. Dakota, N. Carolina or Texas to stay in lockdown.
I wear a mask when I go out shopping to protect other people from me in case I get infected. Most people I see are wearing masks. Little work is critically impeded by the wearing of a mask, and the work is too valuable to keep locked away for any longer. I advocate a program of civil disobedience now that the foolishness of continued lockup is obvious.
MRM: California, S. Dakota, N. Carolina or Texas
Yes, I know S. Dakota is not in lockdown, but the Gov has been criticized and it is clear that there is no justification for the criticism.
If the lockdowns are shown as obviously abusive and not grounded in reality, why wouldn’t the President be able to lift them? Just asking, IANAL.
niceguy: why wouldn’t the President be able to lift them?
This is one of the powers that the 9th and 10th amendments to the Constitution reserve to the States, and to the People.
Willis you can quote from this now https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/random-sampling-test-shows-coronavirus-more-widespread-and-less-deadly-than-previously-thought-study its probably less deadly than the flu it would not surprise me if there calling all daily worldwide normal death of 170000 per DAY as coronaviruses. Cheers