Essay by Eric Worrall
“… As coal and nuclear generation expand … they may displace domestic renewable energy …”
Japan’s energy security response is creating a renewables blind spot
April 27, 2026
Michiyo Miyamoto…
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again exposed Japan’s dependence on imported fossil fuels …
The Japanese government has responded to these challenges by reducing LNG use through increased coal-fired generation and restarting nuclear power plants, positioning these sources as providers of stable and affordable domestic supply.
This approach may result in unintended consequences. As coal and nuclear generation expand within Japan’s constrained power system, they may displace domestic renewable energy — an alternative capable of delivering equivalent energy security benefits at lower cost. …
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Japan’s policy response focuses on expanding inflexible baseload generation at the expense of domestic renewable energy that could deliver equivalent energy security benefits at lower cost. The prioritization of coal and nuclear increases the likelihood of renewable energy curtailment, reduced investment, and higher consumer costs, while jeopardizing the achievement of decarbonization targets.
…In Kyushu, large-scale solar curtailment began in October 2018 after the restart of Genkai Units 3 and 4, marking the country’s first sustained reduction in renewable output. In Kansai, curtailment started in June 2023, when multiple nuclear units were operating simultaneously, and has since become more frequent.
Read more: https://ieefa.org/resources/japans-energy-security-response-creating-renewables-blind-spot
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I’m shocked I tell you. Imagine a nation choosing reliable nuclear energy over solar energy.
Instability in the Aussie gas export market may also be playing a part in Japan’s move to diversify away from gas.
It’s not just Aussie gas availability which is experiencing an uptick in political interference. Australia also recently considered a surprise new tax on gas exports, a proposal which was narrowly rejected, for now – possibly because of the risk of widespread demand destruction, as nations like Japan re-evaluate whether Australia is a reliable trading partner.
Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese also boasted recently about using Australian food exports as leverage to secure more fertiliser and fuel for Australia. Using food as a bargaining chip may have further upset Asian trading partners, trading partners who like Japan are likely already questioning whether Australia is still a reliable trading partner.
Coal for Japan can be sourced from Australia, but there are other options. Indonesia is also a large scale exporter of thermal coal. By embracing coal and especially nuclear, Japan insulates itself against Australian sovereign risk, against Australia’s increasingly unstable conduct of international diplomacy and commerce.
