This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony
UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people
UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep. See update 2 below.
UPDATE4: AMSA: Helicopter rescue of Akademik Shokalskiy likely to commence shortly
(It’s off again, then now its on again, with report the helicopter has landed)
UPDATE5: All the passengers (tourists and scientists) are off the ship
UPDATE6: Tough questions need to be asked
UPDATE7: Trouble on the rescue ship – reaching open water not so easy
As we reported previously on WUWT here and here, the saga of the “climate scientists/tourists trapped in ice” continues to fascinate many. Now a second ship has given up on rescue, after the Chinese ship “Snow Dragon” gave up two days ago. The Aurora Australis has abandoned rescue of the trapped Russian “research”vessel in Antarctica and a helicopter evacuation in now being ordered. This episode has taken on a heightened comedic fiasco-like quality.
Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all. Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever? Even the captain of the Aurora Australis had the good sense to turn back knowing he’d reached the limits of the ship on his rescue attempt. Or, was it some sort of publicity stunt to draw attention? If it was the latter, it has backfired mightily.
One might argue that with photos like the one below, this whole “Spirit of Mawson” research expedition, is little more than a media stunt.
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/412977161323036672 ]
Even after the ship was trapped, these reporters still had a party like atmosphere going on:
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/416881634273525761/photo/1 ]
Yesterday, Andrew Revkin tweeted something that I agreed with, especially since so many of the people trapped in the ice on the ship seem to have a nonchalant, almost partly-like atmosphere going on.
Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: "Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don't." http://t.co/UsxA2tiV2i What about rescue risk/cost?
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) December 29, 2013
Yes, the cost and risk is significant. These folks trapped on-board don’t seem to be cognizant of that issue, following the #spiritofmawson Twitter feed, it’s like watching reports (with pictures and video) from a high school class party.
And here’s the kicker. Even the public saw through the charade at the beginning. Trying to get crowd funding from the public for this trip failed miserably as this Indigogo campaign shows:
Source: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-return-to-mawson-s-antarctic-hut-the-home-of-the-blizzard
Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous image of Professor Chris Turney in full cold weather gear standing in the midst of a tropical forest.
Right after the ship got stuck and there was a realization that the world was watching, one scientist on-board, Dr. Chris Fogwill, of the University of New South Wales, decided that it would be an opportune time to hit the public for money again:
Source: http://www.spiritofmawson.com/
And again, the public has seen through this, and today, the campaign remains stuck at $1000 with just a few donors. People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip, and that it seems to be little more than a chartered party boat for Antarctic enthusiasts and media.
Now, with the ship to be evacuated via helicopter, will the Akademik Shokalskiy join the list of recent ships that have been sunk in Antarctic waters?
Ships that have sunk in Antarctic waters in recent years (h/t to David Archibald)
The Brazilian yacht “Endless Sea” sank in Maxwell Bay, Ardley Cove on Saturday 7th April, 2012. It was used for “scientific and educational expeditions”.
The sunken remains of the 76-ft Mar Sem Fin, aka “Endless Sea”, which sunk on April 7, 2012, lies at a depth of about 9 meters (30 ft) in Ardley Cove, Antarctica.
In November 2007, the Linblad Explorer hit sea ice and sank.
In April 2013, the Chinese factory fishing ship Kai Xin caught fire and sank near Bransfield Strait at the Antarctic Peninsula.
And there are others, these are just a few recent ones.
With so much concern for the pristine environment of Antarctica, one wonders how much environmental damage these sinkings are doing.
And when the trip is nothing more than a party for your friends and media, disguised as a “scientific expedition”, one wonders if there shouldn’t be some moratorium on such trips.
Richard Tol summed it all up nicely with one sentence:
There has been a strong and statistically significant upward trend in climate-change-related public-relations disasters #spiritofmawson
— Richard Tol (@RichardTol) December 30, 2013
UPDATE:
The #spiritofmawson hashtag is now getting competition from the hashtag #ClitanicDisaster in honor of the trapped climate scientists that the MSM won’t mention as being climate scientists.
========================================================
UPDATE 2:
reader Aphan writes on 2013/12/31 at 7:16 pm
I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.
The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????
http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html
I mean…come on. What are the odds?
============================================================
Related articles
- Saving the Antarctic scientists, er media, er, activists, er tourists trapped by sea ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Antarctic rescue mission fails to reach trapped ship (theguardian.com)
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UPDATE.
News, national, Melbourne, Australia. TV 3 pm local EADST Thursday January 2nd.
Yet another rescue attempt has been called off. It seems that the helicopter cannot land safely at one or more of the several places needed to execute the full plan that ends finally at the Aurora Australis as per news of yesterday –
“The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said the operation involving the airlifting of 52 passengers from the Akademik Shokalskiy, which had been set to involve a Chinese helicopter, no longer looked possible due to the adverse conditions.
The ice was preventing a smaller vessel from the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis from reaching Chinese icebreaker the Xue Long, which is nearer to the stranded ship.
The plan was to fly passengers to the Chinese vessel before they were transferred to the Aurora Australis by boat.”
In my career of mineral exploration we were sometimes in very dangerous places.
If you ever get lost in dangerous locations – and you have the experience or sense to know a dangerous situation – you are sometimes overcome with panic and then you act irrationally.
Those who know about this plan with caution, never sending out single vehicles, having navigation and radio backups, having an experienced person on board at all times and so on.
Otherwise, lives are lost.
bones,
You said “In case you do not recall, it was predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.”
When and by whom? I have seen others bring that up but that was not some widely accepted recent assertion that I recall. The trend again though has been less ice in the Arctic Ocean in general, obviously with some fluctuations from year to year. Greenland has seen significant glacial retreat at it’s largest glaciers, as well as more and more uncovered land in general. China has been angling to get in on potential precious metal mining opportunities in Greenland given the increase in exposed land. World powers are scrambling to establish more of a presence in the Arctic. More people are attempting the Northwest passage. Etc. etc.
Welcome aboard Robbie and Cara:
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm
“The chart actually shows that the typical upward trend over the last few months is still on the low side of the typical average for this time of year. ”
“…however this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming.”
———–
What is alarming, and why?
Some thousand years ago the Arctic Ocean may have been free of ice:
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
And for sure, a few thousand years earlier there was an ice age. Normally climate change.
johanna,
I did not feel any of my post to you was hostile. Where did I earlier “demand proof”? What specific quote of mine are you referring to? I recall simply asking another poster to clarify the “children” he was referring to. I wasn’t denying their presence and “demanding” proof.
If you do not believe I am being sincere in my discussions with people here, or want to dismiss me so casually, that’s your call.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm
Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming.
Only alarmists are alarmed.
There is a reason the Northwest passage is being viewed as potentially a summer shipping lane in the near future.
Yes, because alarmists have fed the public false information. If you look at Canadian Archipelago Sea Ice Area;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
there is no indication that the Northwest passage will be “a summer shipping lane in the near future”. Furthermore,
Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.
I thought we just decided that anecdotes about the climate conditions around your house are irrelevant to discussions about global climate? Greenland represents less than .5% of Earth’s surface area, of what relevance are Inuit’s perspectives on this debate?
philincalifornia wrote: “It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?”
#1 What does that add?
#2 Care to switch roles and venture on your own into a hostile forum with no backup and try to have the courtesy to respond to dozens of posters at once?
There’s a wonderful video on YouTube about diving under Antarctic ice, with info about many things we’ve discussed. Not linked due to bandwidth issues for some users here, but the name is “Under the Antarctic Ice” and narrated by Hilary Swank. Topics include continental ice melt runoff into sea, brine tubes forming from melting ice expelling salt and many delightful things. Bring popcorn and forget sharing it with trolls.
Who said this:?
There is no evidence that the summer ice is in imminent danger of collapse.
Feedbacks in the climate system are only marginally positive.
Negative feedbacks are
1. A reduction of sea ice results in increased atmospheric water vapour
and hence more clouds. Cloud albedo is greater than sea ice albedo and
so net short wave forcing is reduced.
2. A reduction of sea ice results in increased evaporation. Evaporation
cools the surface but warms the atmosphere when it condenses. Increased
surface heating will increase the condensation height resulting in more
heat lost from the atmosphere to space. This is called the ‘lapse-rate
feedback’
3. A reduction in sea ice results in more short wave absorbed by the
open ocean. Increased short wave radiation and increased melt water
reduces the ocean mixed layer depth. A shallow mixed layer stratifies
the ocean such that the heating is not mixed to the deeper ocean. With
the heat confined in the surface layer it is lost to the atmosphere more
readily and very rapidly once autumn starts.
4. Thinner ice in summer means more heat loss from the ocean in winter,
resulting in stronger ice growth.
Positive feedbacks are the obvious
1. Reduced sea ice means more open water and lower albedo so more heat
up take and more ice melt.
Thus, a simple calculation including only the positive feedback will
produce an incorrect early loss of the summer ice.
All GCMs show that the inevitable loss of summer Arctic ice does not
influence the global climate system. Warming does not increase
significantly just because the cloud which replaces much of (but not
all) the ice is more reflective. The impact on the North Greenland ice
sheet will hasten the regional melt rate. However, it is evident that
the decline of the Greenland ice cap will take more than 1000 years.
The so called ‘speedup’ of draining glaciers has been shown to be a
transient feature as most of those ‘fast’ glaciers, diagnosed in 2003,
have now slowed to their original speeds. Even if tide-water glaciers
were all to speed up, they can only drain 10% of the ice sheet before
they become grounded above sea-level. There is ample evidence that non-
tidewater glaciers have not increased in speed.
Nature has a vicious sense of humour.
First the irony of climate change experts stuck in a summer ice pack.
Now the on again off again rescue , the weather will appear to calm down, the activists will be mobilized, the weather will rise up, the air lift will be cancelled, they wait,the cycle repeats.
Climate change..water wet, except when its solid.
@Glenn Skankey 8:52,
Hostile forum?
I guess that clarifies your role.
Ice-sheet uncertainty, Bromwich, D.H. and Nicolas, J.P., Nature Geoscience 2010:
Yep, definitely a troll.
Prof Chris Turney and the Australian ABC now claim this is not a scientific expedition looking for evidence of climate change, but a tourist trip with 22 scientists aboard. This is directly contradictory to Prof Turney’s statements before departure, and during the early part of the voyage.
If this is true, all the tourists are fully liable for the cost of their trip, and their rescue.
Also, Prof Turney may have fraudulently misrepresented the nature of the trip to the (mainly) Australian funding bodies (most are Government departments) who were told it was a “scientific expedition to investigate the effects of climate change”.
All blame aside, the 74 people on board are now in a dangerous position, and it could get a lot worse.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:52 pm
philincalifornia wrote: “It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?”
#1 What does that add?
#2 Care to switch roles and venture on your own into a hostile forum with no backup and try to have the courtesy to respond to dozens of posters at once?
Sorry Glen in nearly 7 years of following WUWT, I have yet to see any evidence of this being a “hostile blog”
I have however seen numerous “True Believers” come in here, quoting or declaring that the evidence for CAGW/CC/WW is overwhelming, but when asked to provide citations, links, all we see are the usual tired disclaimers or links to SkS or RC, neither of which have any concept of fair discussion.
That you have been able to keep posting, and in my opinion been treated a lot more civilly than any of us would be in SkS or RC, and I agree that you have been courteous in attempting to answer as many posts as possible, makes me wonder about your definition of a “hostile blog”
Please stay around, we need people to bounce our ideas off as well.
Take care
Here is a special quote:
“. . . the penguin presence surely suggests another scientific advance: penguins cannot laugh out loud, as much of the rest of the world is now doing.”
[Roger Franklin, The Daily Telegraph, 1/02/2014]
dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/in-the-icy-grip-of-fear-that-global-warming-is-claptrap/story-fni0cwl5-1226793282194
Just the facts wrote:
“I thought we just decided that anecdotes about the climate conditions around your house are irrelevant to discussions about global climate? Greenland represents less than .5% of Earth’s surface area, of what relevance are Inuit’s perspectives on this debate?”
If you are making the case about trends in Arctic Ice change, then the perspective of a people who not only live in the region, but are significantly dependent on the land for survival, is a valuable insight. If they are having to change hunting and fishing patterns significantly from the previous generation, there is something up. Spreading back out though to a more widespread scale, what is your general feeling as far as why glaciers have been retreating rapidly across the globe (Greenland, Patagonia, Kilamanjaro, Rainier, Glacier National Park, Iceland, etc. etc.) I ask this genuinely, not as some sort of gotcha question.
— “why would you expect any “shifts in overall regional weather patterns”? Does CO2 have some magical regional weather pattern shifting capacity we have yet to be apprised of?…”
I haven’t made any comments regarding CO2. Take AGW out of it for a second. I haven’t actually made any statements specifically referring to CO2 causing anything, in fact I should have made a disclaimer in earlier posts that my interests are not in pushing any particular reasons for changes in climate, more so an objection to the idea that there have not been interesting shifts. We know forces stronger than man can change the climate as well (including regional changes such as the Sahara alternating between lush jungle and arid desert over the millenia). As far as “regional pattern shifts”, I am referring to things like the increased precipitation trend as you approach the antarctic circle. Will Texas continue to see more long droughts, or did we just happen to hit a short isolated case there? etc. etc.
up-to-date from new zealand:
looks like helicopter evacuation has been ruled out indefinitely! plus what does “this time because of sea ice” mean? what was it the other times?
2 Jan: NZ City: Sea ice delays Antarctica rescue bid
The rescue of scientists and tourists who have spent 10 days stranded on a ship trapped by ice off Antarctica has again been delayed, this time because of sea ice…
It is unlikely the helicopter rescue of 52 passengers aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy will go ahead on Thursday and instead plans are being made for a safer transfer directly from ship to ship, Australian maritime officials say…
AMSA says the preferred option is to wait for conditions that will allow the rescue to be completed in a single operation, transferring the passengers directly to the Aurora Australis, to reduce unnecessary risk…
AMSA is also investigating alternative rescue ideas…
Six New Zealanders are aboard the ship…
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=179754&fm=newsmain%2Cnrhl
Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.
Warren in New Zealand,
You might be right in that I’m not sure hostile was the right word as far as literal definitions go. I was referring more to going up against an opposing crowd alone, not trying to label everyone individually as hostile.
Anyways, trying to address everyone at once is in hindsight not the way to do it. It prevents me from going into any kind of in-depth response to those posters who warrant it. For example, I could have spent these last few hours going into more substantive detail with say Just The Facts or another poster, instead of trying to give shorter responses to ten or twelve other people. I’ll revisit that strategy, but for now it’s long past my bedtime and I feel like I didn’t come close to addressing everything I needed to.
Best wishes to all, I’ll attempt to find some time tomorrow.
johanna says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:49 pm
Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.
_______________________
Good job.
I’d be willing to help with a fund to send more supplies for the Russian crew if they’re stuck there till Yamal gets into it.
This now realy dangerous. As nature has taken over. Seafarers from three nations are now at risk. All should suspend the fllippancy and just hope and pray that eveyone gets out of fhis dangerous fiasco alive.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.htmlhttp://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html
Johanna says
“Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.”
Or it could be I was trying to be gracious enough to acknowledge those who responded or addressed a post to me (especially in your case since you asked several times for me to answer your question and seemed upset when I hadn’t gotten to you yet). Don’t worry, I see the mistake in that now. I gave you much more courtesy than you’ve returned, and in the process I wasted time I could have spent on more in-depth responses to more worthy posters like Just The Facts.
“Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.”
Won’t find any? None at all? Interesting.
By the way, what is the Inuit word for “static”? Does the Inuit word for static mean homeostasis?
I am glad to meet someone who has sat around chatting in fluent Inuitese -or whatever language they speak.
When you chat with the Inuits to glean their opinions and vast knowledge, what do they tell you about the times when the Scandinavians were putting colonies on Greenland, back before the hockey stick era>?
Or do you mostly chat with these imaginary Inuits about whether things are not static in the short run, as compared to the medium range back to the normal times when it was much warmer in Greenland.