From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/world/europe/heat-europe-excess-death-fire.html
According to the New York Times:
Europeans are being crushed by deadly temperatures.
Record-breaking heatwaves across much of the continent have claimed thousands of lives and created a perfect storm for destructive wildfires, as The New York Times reports.
A staggering number of these deaths, experts urge, are linked to climate change. Britain’s national weather agency, Met Office, said that of the 2,700 deaths in England and Wales believed to be the result of extreme heat so far this season — and we’re barely halfway through summer — around 42 percent were likely the result of the “human-caused” climate change.
“However, it is clear that human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves,” said Mark McCarthy, Met Office’s manager of climate attribution, in a statement. “This intensification is driving many impacts, including those affecting human health and mortality and other issues, such as agriculture, effects on transport infrastructure and biodiversity.”
In addition to the thousands of deaths in England and Wales, France has estimated that roughly a thousand excess deaths and hundreds of hospitalizations were caused by extreme heat, while Germany announced last week that its unprecedented temperatures have so far been linked to about 5,100 deaths.
The Met Office claim was made a few weeks ago:
The claim was fake.
As I pointed out at the time, we did not have the mortality data at the time to make such an irresponsible claim. The “estimate” came from modelling by Imperial College.
Now we do have the actual data, and it does not support the Met Office’s wild claims:
I have plotted the weekly cumulative death registrations, starting in Week 18, which is the first week in May, and ending in Week 30, which was July 24th this year – this is the latest data available from the ONS.
There is no spike in deaths at any stage during 3-month period. Cumulatively there were 136,066 deaths last year and 135,466 this year.
As for the deaths in Europe, it is worth revisiting the Lancet study in 2021, which found that the number of cold-related deaths in Western Europe was four times as great as heat-related ones.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2821%2900081-4
No “manager of climate attribution” was ever going to claim anything but what Mark McCarthy claimed.
The claim was baked-in the moment the Met Office created the post.
Full marks for looking at the actual data though.
The European heatwave of 1920-1921.
https://www.climategate.nl/2026/08/grote-droogte-europa-1920-1921/
It’s in Dutch, but Google translate does a good job.
The alarmists are desperate for something, anything at all that they can claim is ‘happening before your very eyes’ – like wildfires. Statistical jiggery pokery is a favourite go to, but since covid 1984 and the shambolic modelling that went with it people see through it. It can be summed up in the popular joke[s] of the time: Did you hear about the motorcyclist who hit a bus head-on? He died of covid etc…
The Met Office is desperate and is certainly hoping for the worst. As they told me by email…
Whilst SSP5-8.5 is now considered implausible, it is important to note that higher levels of warming still might be reached if some feedbacks in the climate system turn out to be stronger than current estimates, or there are additional feedbacks not included in typical climate model simulations. The plausibility of future scenarios also changes over time. We cannot rule out that scenarios currently considered implausible could become more likely again in the future. For instance, a widespread return to investment in very high fossil fuel use and back-tracking on current climate policies could increase the likelihood of higher emissions.
They haven’t got over the demise of their favourite scenario. On the subject of feedbacks, here is an excellent presentation from Thomas Kurz…
Good one.
“We cannot rule out that scenarios currently considered implausible could become more likely again in the future.”
And I could win the Powerball lottery next week. (It could likely happen if I actually bought a ticket.)
That MO email is a keeper.
could become more likely again in the future.”
As I said, The Met Office is desperate and is certainly hoping for the worst.
Can we not describe that sentiment as somewhat Malthusian?
And they pad it out – it isn’t going to be more likely in the past
And just what are those “feedbacks” – that’s plural. Certainly not humidity because data actually show that humidity throughout the atmosphere has been decreasing in recent decades. Perhaps it has something to do with the size of maple tree leaves, or number of road miles paved per year, or….. The website “Spurious Correlations” might have some if someone searches it carefully.
And just what are those “feedbacks”
Who can say? I would imagine they have yet to be invented. This is why Kurz’s video is so good; he lays it all out, the feedbacks that we know to exist are not positive….
Great video. Kudos to you strativarius and to Thomas Kurz. News outlets like NPR and CNN need to explain why they persist in promoting the so-called “climate crisis” in light of this video and what Kurz is saying.
It’s not like it’s a tough challenge to find “something” that is suggestive of global warming, strat.
Kinda spoiled for choice at the moment; but sure you crack on with your delusion. Ignore the smoke, etc.
So you are alright with the “mights” and “coulds,” which are undefined, qualitative probabilities that imply low probability, but not impossible? That is little more than poor support for conjecture.
That was all you can bring up……, sounds like YOU are the one who is a spoiled child who would post such empty drivel.
HA HA HA HA HA…….
Again, would you prefer global cooling over the last 150 years?
Or if pigs could fly …
If time travel Sci-Fi, they have a thing called “The Butterfly Effect”.
In Cli-Sy, they have “The Pig Wings Effect”.
In other words, the alarmists are just ‘winging’ it.
We can pretty safely say that any modelling coming out of Imperial College is nothing but garbage out.
Every time they trot out catastropharian modelling it turns out to be completely wrong.
Garbage in, Propaganda out. GIPO.
The Covid crisis was created in the UK by radically incorrect modelling by Imperial College. How can anyone believe them again?
We pay good money through the MoD for the MetOffice. They are supposed to operate as scientists. The recording maintenance and processing of data at weather stations is appallingly bad. We should not expect these publications to be any better.
The MET has an “Office of Climate Attribution!” And just what conclusions might one expect regarding weather from such an office? How about an “Office of Roadway Cracking” somewhere in the transportation departments or an “Office of Water Pipe Failure” somewhere in the water departments. Just what sort of conclusions would one expect from such offices? Nutty Government!
Same offices as the “Office of Speaking With the Dead”, and they use the same methods.
2025, From the Exeter Observer…
Met Office to sell Exeter Science Park supercomputer and office buildings
Disposal motivated by replacement of nine year-old supercomputer with £1.2 billion government-funded off-site Microsoft facility.
…terms stipulate that the prospective purchaser must have a “science and/or research basis” and that the buildings which comprise the 13,240 square metre complex cannot be sold separately.
The sale of the complex is motivated by the replacement of the nine year-old Met Office Cray XC40 supercomputer with a Microsoft-provided off-site facility.
The facility is part of a £1.2 billion government-funded joint project with the Met Office that was announced in 2021.
…
“We are now coming to the point where the next iteration of the supercomputer will be delivered at an off-site Microsoft facility. This means we no longer have a use for the buildings.
…
Last year Exeter City Council had to sink an additional £1.25 million into management company Exeter Science Park Ltd, which it jointly owns with Devon County Council, East Devon District Council and the University of Exeter, after the company was unable to repay debts of £7 million.
It’s only [taxpayer’s] money.
NB… My Mac Mini cost only £199.99 But then, that was my money on the line and I wasn’t going to get ripped off….
Same was done with covid. I personally knew multiple people who passed during the covidiocy who had covid listed as cause of death when covid was NOT cause of death. Killed in auto crash? Not covid. Killed falling from a roof? Not covid. Terminal cancer? Not covid. Drug over dose? Not covid. Death from accumulated effects of old age? Not covid.
Why is anyone surprised climatards do the same thing? They are the SAME group of idiots spewing lies for their political agenda.
No respect for the truth when the truth does not support the political agenda.
Someone on NPR mentioned this morning that European funeral homes are full up with the dead who have succumbed to the heat wave, and they are turning people away who need their services. All over Europe. This is not sarcasm.
Nobody is saying that here – and we have the estimable alarmists in the BBC Guardian etc etc
You mean NPR might be wrong?? The horror of that! Thank goodness we no longer fund them.
What they really need is an Office of Silly Walks.
No room, the Office of Silly Talks is full
I’m shocked, shocked I tell you to read that government bureaucrats would issue incorrect information to a trusting populace.
(Hard to round up the usual suspects these days though.
It’s all of them 😫 ).
That the MET has a manager (and office) of attribution is the big story. They are falsely claiming the attribution science is valid.
+100
1 + 1 + 0 = 3
An example from before it was called “attribution science”.
A scientist is studying a flea.
He yells, “JUMP!
The flea jumps and the scientist measures and records the distance. 6 inches.
He pulls of a leg and again yells, “JUMP!” 5 inches.
One more leg, 4 inches.
Etc.
Pulls off the last leg, 0 inches.
The scientist concludes, “No legs left. Flea can’t hear.” 😎
PS Are they saying that if there was no heat, there’s be no deaths?
The Europeans are delusional about air conditioning too. I heard one ‘influencer’ saying she would put her feet in a bucket of water and be just fine. Another one said she “spreads yogurt over the windows” to keep out the heat. I didn’t know what to say to her.
What are the heating and cooling bills for large glass walled buildings in the UK. Or will they block freedom of information requests for that too.
Paul Homewood, it would be helpful if you related the week numbers in the graph to the dates of the May and Jun heatwaves.
Good luck with that. As you have spotted, this article has nothing to do with those.
The dates below are both within the hot weather during May and June.
23rd May to 30th May (all deaths)
2025 2026
11257 11394 (+137)
8638 8616 (-22)
20th June to 27th June (all deaths)
2025 2026
10410 10823 (+413)
10080 10679 (+599)
May 2026 had only around 115 more deaths and June 2026 had 1012 more deaths.
Deliberately misleading, but hey, the day ends in a ‘y’ and it’s Paul ‘fill my tip-jar-if you’re dumb-enough‘, Homewood.
He is referring to ‘cumulative deaths’ (year-to-date) when the Met Office explicitly states “excess deaths” (difference between baseline and observed deaths over a specified period).
The period specified was May and June 2026. These figures have not yet been published and will not be finalised until early 2027.
In the interim, the UK Health Security Agency estimate for excess deaths in May and June 2026 for England is very close to that of the Met Office.
The exceptionally warm weather in the UK, the south in particular, is killing people, to the surprise of no one other than those who exist in a state of perpetual reality-denial.
What is the variance in “excess deaths” derived from modeled mortality?
What are “heat associated deaths?” Do they include traffic deaths that occur on hot days?
Yes I was wondering too what / how determinations of “Heat Associated Deaths” were arrived at.
Like –
“Ms Smith was discovered dead that morning by her sister, having been rendered down into a sloppy mess in her bed.
There were no suspicious circumstances. It was determined to be just another Heat Associated Death”
What the actual fvck???
I know eh? Oh, for the days of the LIA when everyone had a wonderful time! Let’s hope it gets colder real soon…..
How on earth can these jokers at the Met keep their jobs. What a pitiful performance.