Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
That map strikes me as being as accurate as the one we saw a few weeks ago…showing the South West of Western Australia as being in the Tropics!
The book of lies becomes thinker and thicker.
The book will end when all the UN IPCC claims have been outlived by the facts.
Not a single claim will survive.
Barry Woods says: April 16, 2011 at 3:57 am
Even the BBC know the islands, Tuvalu, etc are not sinking…
BBC: Low-lying Pacific islands ‘growing not sinking’ – 3 June 2010 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10222679
new geological study has shown that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking.
The islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among those which have grown, because of coral debris and sediment.
—————————————————————————-
Yes Barry, that is true. The migration that IS occurring in these areas is due to economic problems – and the adverse effects of economic globalisation. Hence these Pacific Island dwellers are more likely to migrate to such places as Australia and New Zealand for work and a better standard of living. They are abandoning their home states for these reasons. At the same time N.Zers are migrating to Australia and the UK for the same reasons. It is like an economic form of osmosis. There is an accelerating ‘churn’ going on.
Douglas
Thank you, Martin Brumby, for taking apart that insufferable troll from Germany. Saved me a lot of time.
To Bomber_ the _Cat and James Sexton…whether the use of “disappeared” and “rubbished” in the context of this article is accurately categorized as colloquially(sp?) proper or gramatically incorrect, it qualifies as awkward reading. More importantly, I think that both anal retentive grammar hounds and readers of Shakespeare would agree that this is a very valuable article.
Barbara Skolaut says:
April 16, 2011 at 9:32 am
“they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN”
MORE distrust? Is that even possible?
—
It isn’t possible. It’s like trying to bring more respect to the gang at RealClimate…
I feel really bad for the people that will have to file all those missing person reports…
Have you seen this person? This person is a missing climate change refugee and has been missing since 2010. Please contact local authorities if you know the whereabouts of this person.
By 2020, the UN’s estimated 10-year prediction of climate refugees will reach 400 million.
No actual climate refugees are available for comment, though some weather refugees expressed confusion at the results of the study.
Unfortunately, all this will do is teach the warmists not to produce falsifiable “predictions” and instead concentrate on pure propaganda and fear mongering.
Sir Walter Scott’s poem Marmion
I note that Maui has the “small islands (some may disappear completely) ” legend on it. Perhaps they didn’t notice the 10,000 foot tall volcano.
It’s UN as in UNbelieveable, UNreliable, UNaccountable and now for a brand new Birkword – UNcompetent – which is incompetent on a global scale.
This map shows Darwin, Australia as at risk of desertification. We have just had our wettest ever wet season – with more than 3 metres of rain. We are considering becoming climate refugees to get away from the mould!
I don’t know about these things. Is ‘Google Cache’ anything to do with Google? If so will Google start deleting things in the Google Cache if it finds them – how shall I say? – inconvenient?
John Garrett says:
April 15, 2011 at 8:03 pm
“I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that somebody’s never laid eyes on St. Lucia. If that’s their idea of a low-lying island, they probably think the Himalayas are a set of modest hills.”
Apparently all of Madagascar is only 3mm above MSL too. Who’d have thought!
HuffPuff, of course, has reported this verbatim. The comments section is where the real hilarity ensues. One, calling himself “dragonmaster” (sheesh, I wonder how he spent his teenage years), a “HuffPost Super User” (I think that means you’re a really super guy and right on message about everything) confidently predicts that the Artic will be ice-free by 2012, we’re all doomed, Odin will display his righteous wrath etc. etc. (and he’s one of the moderates – he has hundreds of fans).
I’ve always wondered why the instinctual doom-laden hyperbole of adolescence that we all suffer manages to stay with those of a certain disposition. They’ve been well educated (in the main), seem to have good jobs and converse in a reasonably coherent manner, yet remain steadfastly stuck in an arrested adolescence of self-pity and hyperactive woe, making risibly absurd predictions about the near future (until it all goes quiet)…strange.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/22/environmental-refugees-50_n_826488.html
Alexander Feht says:
April 16, 2011 at 1:04 pm
“Thank you, Martin Brumby, for taking apart that insufferable troll from Germany. Saved me a lot of time.”
Hey, being called Montag doesn’t necessarily mean he/she/it’s from Germany. I have witnesses:
http://raus-aus-dem-bastelkeller.over-blog.de/article-heidi-montag-42840918.html
Pirran says:
April 16, 2011 at 2:01 pm
It is impossible to comment on huffpuff, no matter how careful you are in your statements. It is all censored away.
noel says:
“I’ve got “notify me of follow-up comments via email” checked, so I shouldn’t miss the winner.”
Oddly, that emails you a notification of your own post, not any that follow.
Jimmy Haigh says:
April 16, 2011 at 1:58 pm
“I don’t know about these things. Is ‘Google Cache’ anything to do with Google? If so will Google start deleting things in the Google Cache if it finds them – how shall I say? – inconvenient?”
A search engine makes a temporary copy of websites it scans. This is the cache of the search engine. Google allows to peek into this cached copy. The cached content will stay there until Google’s web crawlers scan the same website again, and then it will be replaced by a new copy.
Does anyone remember this?
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/03/31/warming-island-another-global-warming-myth-exposed/
Complete with boat tours to view the demise of Greenland in real time.
Personally I think the phrase “another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality” is stylish and well put.
Google Cache?
Try also using The Wayback Machine
They never learn; the cover-up is always worse than the original crime. But, just making statements that fearful disaster will happen in 10 years time is so laughable. I’d like to see Professor Tirado’s response …. crickets?
The end of the world is always nigh. People who proclaim it must hope the claim is forgotten when it doesn’t occur.