Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
What needs to go down the memory hole is the entire UN conglomerate. That corrupt bunch of global teat-suckers has wreaked more economic and political havoc on the planet than 10,000 years of “global warming”.
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April 1, 2010
“My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.”
Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) is worried about Guam, and, oh, is he getting mocked for stupidity.
althouse blogspot
He is 2 tacos short of a combo platter.
@Montag says: April 16, 2011 at 4:50 am
“The claim that ‘the UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees’ is unsubstantiated.”
– No it isn’t, Anthony presents absolutely clear evidence that this is precisely what the UN has done. And then they had the bare faced cheek to run the same scare story again but adding ten years to the end date.
“I am not able to identify any arguments in this blog post that supports the claim.”
– Perhaps you didn’t read it?
“(Imaginative, but unfounded, conspiracy theories concerning UNEP do not appeal to me; I prefer real arguments).”
– Really? Check out:-
http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/cognitive_dissonance.htm
“What is the relevance of national censuses in small island states?”
– Well, when the UNEP identifies areas that are especially “vulnerable” but populations have actually increased, how do you explain it? Immigrating suicidal masochists?
“Undoubtedly, natural disasters and environmental deterioration displaced people in 2010. This is true even if the refugees did not cross a national border.”
– We’re not talking about “natural disasters”. There have always been “natural disasters”. The claim was (and has now been regurgitated as) 50 Million CLIMATE refugees. Of which there is absolutely no sign whatever. And I doubt even the UN being able to hide 50 Million people.
“I wonder, how many people in Africa and Asia had to flee from untenable environmental conditions in 2010?”
– None?
“I would not be surprised if 50 million climate refugees by 2010 is a gross underestimate.”
– And I wouldn’t be surprised, “Montag”, if you were either riding on this pathetic gravy train or perhaps had been smoking way too much funny substances. You think there have been far more than 50 Million climate refugees? Really? Name five! Give proof of the existence of five.
And whilst you are about it, demonstrate that the reason they became “climate refugees” was attributable to anthropogenic global warming. Without using a “computer model”.
I prefer real evidence!
I followed some of Jimbo’s links. It was interesting at this UN site, that predicted 50 million refugees.
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en
Because, at the bottom, was Nick Nuttall. The same name as the poster at Gavin’s site, who denied the UN made this prediction.
For more information, please contact:
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Office of the Executive Director, on Tel: +254 20 762 3084; Mobile: 254 733 632 755 or when traveling +41 795 965 737; E-mail: nick.nuttall@xxxxx.xxx
Nick forgot, but the internet never does. Sad, really.
Bravo Les!
Dead, alas.
Erlich’s foolishness did have real world consequences once. You can read about his bet with Simon here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
Yet being proven wrong didn’t slow him down a bit. In theology, this phenomenon is known as “invincible ignorance”. The incapacity to admit one is wrong despite overwhelming evidence. Hmmmm, sounds like the warmanistas in general.
Great stuff! Keep your boot on their neck. These people are on the run.
UNEP was right, folks : english climatic refugees are so numerous here, in France, since several years. We understand. Hé, hé….
I just told my wife this story and she came up with a classic:
“Are they now trying to hide the incline?” (in population numbers)
I trust their is a catalogue of predictions over the past 30 years that we can comment on as their due dates pass. I think it would be a good post to present the current list of failed predictions, particularly those that even went the other way. Also, we must keep up the story as a global warming one – I have had students and others argue with me that it’s climate change. I always ask then if global warming is no longer a worry. I also always ask if their confidence and certainty are as high today as they were 10 years ago in light of these shifts and failures of predictions.
Re: Les Johnson says:
April 16, 2011 at 9:55 am
Nice One! Good catch, Les.
Nice work.
Darn them UN scuzbuckets.
Les Johnson says:
April 16, 2011 at 9:55 am
I followed some of Jimbo’s links. It was interesting at this UN site, that predicted 50 million refugees.
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=538&ArticleID=5842&l=en
Because, at the bottom, was Nick Nuttall. The same name as the poster at Gavin’s site, who denied the UN made this prediction.
For more information, please contact:
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson, Office of the Executive Director, on Tel: +254 20 762 3084; Mobile: 254 733 632 755 or when traveling +41 795 965 737; E-mail: nick.nuttall@xxxxx.xxx
Nick forgot, but the internet never does. Sad, really.
============================================
Just a few observations.
First, kudos to Les and Jimbo and Curiousgeorge.
Second……….Shame on you Nicky. Sadly, this is an all-too-familiar routine with you guys. Keep digging.
Third, I couldn’t help but chuckle at someone’s refusal to post the e-mail addy but has no qualms with posting the phone numbers. I thought it a bit humorous.
This migration is not due to so-called global warming but people simply packing their bags and leaving unstable dictatorships. The solution is less government and more individual freedom and capitalism, not more taxes designed to mooch and loot the actual producers of wealth.
We all have an obligation to ensure that we pay as little taxes as possible to governments in order to stop funding these lies. The only way to kill these statist ideas from spreading is to starve them of funding.
The AWG bureaucracy is setting up to dish out a $100 billion a year to corrupt third world governments, by 2010. Cushy AWG jobs for the fund administrators. The problem is AWG taxation and waste, not global warming. The donor countries have massive debits, no funds to waste.
The third world countries need outside intervention and programs to address and break fundamental corruption. Throwing more money at the problem will not solve the problem. Corrupt examples are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Nigeria.
It appears the science (the feedback response to a change in forcing is negative, not positive), the facts on the ground (global temperature has stopped rising, sea level has stopped rising), and third world political reality are irrelevant to the AWG movement. They have created a fantasy paradigm, a ruse.
Fortunately we live in a democracy. The solution is political action. Enough is enough. There are real problems that governments need to address.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110415/sc_afp/unclimatewarming_20110415141340
“PARIS (AFP) – A planned fund to channel hundreds of billions of dollars to poor countries exposed to climate change has overcome an early obstacle, the UN said on Friday.
Members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed on the make-up of a 40-seat transitional committee to design the Green Climate Fund (GCF), an issue that had been debated for weeks, the UNFCCC said.
Established at the UNFCCC’s conference in Cancun last December, the GCF aims at administering aid, potentially worth 100 billion dollars a year by 2020, to developing countries at risk from rising seas, worsening drought, flood and storms.”
If someone wants to mail Nick Nuttall, you find an official e-mail address here.
http://www.environmental-expert.com/resultEachPressRelease.aspx?cid=26788&codi=231053
“Media advisory: visit of UN secretary-general to Nairobi “
We’ve had mass, uncontrolled immigration here in the UK since 1980, when AGW was invented, thus proving that the politico-science of AGW is settled. I’ve got an each-way bet on 2030, 2040 and 2050 as the likely critical tipping points for mass worldwide immigration.
Jimbo says:
April 16, 2011 at 4:44 am
Theo Goodwin says:
April 15, 2011 at 8:35 pm
What is the island nation that pulled the stunt of having a cabinet meeting underwater? Participants wore scuba gear.
“It was the Maldives. Here are some inconvenient points concerning the Maldives.
They are planning a new airport (where do they get the building materials?)”
I take it that the new airport will be for seaplanes only. Or maybe holding meetings under water just causes more confusion?
Anyone who sees the behavior of the people engaging in this stunt in the Maldives and does not immediately think “SCAM, BIG TIME SCAM,” either continues to get his diaper changed by his mother or runs to mom and tells her about this great idea for supporting the CAGW SCAM. (Seriously, the people who undertook this little promotion have no concept of the sophistication in business and economics that is required of the average American who wants to move forward in life.) Remember, always ask about changes in local house prices.
Anthony, thanks for finding the Maldive stunt on the web.
Ron Manley says:
April 16, 2011 at 9:22 am
Can you I suggest that you all read the original article quoted in support of the map.
http://www.osce.org/eea/14851. “If Myers had written “If global warming kicks in…” rather than “When…” there is little in the paper that even the most sceptical Watts supporter could disagree with. What it does is expose a real problem – due to population increase and land degradation people are being forced to move home. What the climate change lobby has done here, as so often elsewhere, is misuse the facts to divert funds from solving the real problem to feather their own comfortable nests.”
Well, how about that? Change just a few words in one sentence and something commonplace becomes an outrageous lie! Who woulda thought it?! Ron, you are one sigh from becoming a hardcore, communist Warmista.
Good find, Les Johnson.
Now if Montag can tell us where these 50 million (gross underestimate) climate refugees are, we can wrap this thing up.
Look folks, it’s all very simple. Ten years go these small islands had a lot of people standing in the water, hence when the census was taken they were not precisely “on the island”.
In 2010, these people had clearly got out and were wandering about looking for their towels. Hence they were included in that year’s census figure.
….and I would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn’t been for you meddling kids.
I intend becoming a climate refugee later this year – I find the overwhelming climate nonsense from the BBC and most politicians in the UK with the exception of Graham Stringer and a couple of others so irritating and, as it’s not my country, I can’t say too much without seeming ungracious to my hosts that I am returning to New Zealand. I know we have similar problems there but I will feel comfortable saying and doing something about it as I belong there.
The map highlights the Sahel as an area exposed to desertification and drought. I thought the Sahel was greening. There is also a paper that says Sahel will get more rain.
Sahel has been greening
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.008
Sahel to get more rain with global warming
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023232