Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
Let us not forget the silly Guardian newspaper who used this 50 million refugees nonsense to back up their alarmism in 2005.
[My bold]
Dr Richard Feynman – “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.”
In 2005 they predict 50 million by 2010 ie 10 million per year. Now in 2011 they predict 50 million by 2020. ie 5 million per year. So the UN predicts a 50% reduction in Global warming related migration over the next 10 years. Who needs a census it’s not as bad as they thought?
I know this goes without saying, but while we’re cutting back funding for our domestic climate “products,” can we PLEASE defund the UN? PLEASE?!!
AGW is sustained by lies, deceit and false predictions that its faithful refuse to recognize.
True but here are the linkages:
So we can credit UNEP with their published materials?
“Welcome to the United Nations: It’s Your World”
“You are most welcome to provide us with your feedback and what you think we should improve…”
contact form here:
http://www.un.org/en/contactus/
Now if 10 per cent of WUWT readers gave them feed back on this, there might actually be a crisis at the UN!
@ur momisugly Ed Dahlgren says:
April 15, 2011 at 9:36 pm
RE: Nick Nuttall & Grid Arendal
On the other hand, the group certainly displays the UNEP logo. If the UN doesn’t like the connection, they know what to do about that.
If the UN wishes to avoid criticism such as we’ve seen on this thread, they should not put their imprimatur on publications that originate from non-UN organizations without at least stating on the cover page that the publication is not a product of the UN, nor does the UN endorse it. For them to attempt to weasel out from under what is an obvious UN approved activity (and perhaps even funded by them), as Nick is obviously trying to do, merely makes them look foolish and arrogant.
I’m thinking that in a couple years I may be one of the 50 million “climate refugees”….I live near the Great Lakes and these recent snowy winters may cause me to “migrate” further south.
All this cold and snow is due to AGW………isn’t it??????
Brooke Havard, 18 Vill. Envtl. L.J. 65 (2007) Seeking Protection: Recognition of Environmentally Displaced Persons under International Human Rights Law
I do know of many climate refugees in my own state of Wisconsin. They tend to flee the state for about 4-6 months to places like Florida, Texas and Arizona. I don’t think they are trying to escape global warming though.
These people should not be confused with our 14 Democratic state senators who fled south to Illinois to prevent our legislature and governor from instituting more rational policies regarding public employee unions.
See also Shiney Varghese, Women at the Center of Climate-friendly Approaches to Agriculture and Water Use, Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (2011), p. 3.
PDF from indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/women at the centre_0.pdf—the map is on page 3.
Recalling other past pronouncements of disaster, I was curious to know if the Maldives had slipped beneath the waves– guess not; they are hosting an international beach-sport event in Sept 2011.
There should be an award for these things!
http://www.visitmaldives.com/en/news_posts/71
I disagree it is not the love of money, it is the love of power. The power to tell people what to do. If it were about money then they would be doing all they can to actually improve the economy. Instead the focus seems to be to destroy the economy. It is the politics of envy on steroids.
bagtoter says:
April 16, 2011 at 4:50 am
“Great work…however, please don’t use “disappeared” and “rubbished” as verbs…makes this old man cringe…”
Bagoter, ‘Disappear’ is a verb. What you mean is, ‘it is an intransitive verb’ (i.e. it cannot take an object). Thus the headline ‘The UN “disappears” 50 million climate refugees..’ is wrong and has an uneducated ring to it, even for Americans.
Nice story though. As someone once said, “It’s dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future”. Because eventually the future becomes the past, and chickens come home to roost.
As every prediction made by global warming alarmists turn out to be false it becomes clear this scare can only be maintained by dishonesty and ignorance
Strange that they missed the Mississippi delta off that map, considering what happened to New Orleans from a sea level surge during Katrina.
Ron Nichol says:
April 15, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Thank you so much. After climategate and countless other U.N. debunkings such as this one, I can’t believe the alarmists are still so influential.
Has anyone else noticed that Zimbabwe signed onto Kyoto in 2009. Seeing as how Mugabe has destroyed that economy (thereby reducing CO2 production) he now stands to gain millions via Kyoto.
————————————————————————
Not surprising, Mugabe received a standing ovation at the UN Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (not unusual for dictators such as Mugabe to be given a standing ovation at a UN conference!), and Kofi Annan was a major supporter of Mugabe’s ‘land reforms’ which has so trashed the Zimbabwean economy.
The UN also liked to organize ‘fact-finding’ missions by US Democrats (the background of some of these guys is interesting in itself!) and their portrayal of the situation in Zimbabwe
http://www.swradioafrica.com/Documents/zimtripreport.htm
is very different from the reality as shown in the documentary “Mugabe and the White African” and testified to by many of my Zimbabwean contacts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/politics-obituaries/8439131/Mike-Campbell.html
White africans are not the only victims
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1099467/Mugabes-genocide-The-images-despair-reveal-horror-Zimbabwe.html
The UN has much to answer for is assisting Mugabe in his policy of ‘land reforms’.
Good catch, Anthony. Keep holding their feet to the fire!
Mike says:
April 16, 2011 at 1:37 am
I have two points to make.
Which both appear to have missed the point entirely.
If a person can’t even accept that there are some real nut jobs on his side of the debate, what chance does he have of ever finding the truth. Trying to defend this blatant propaganda only makes one look foolish.
Every January and February there is a huge climate refugee flood from Ontario Canada to Florida.
Another link to the map is here:
http://probeinternational.org/library/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Disappearing-islands.pdf
And an interesting article about disappearing islands here:
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/14/lawrence-solomon-search-is-on-for-the-island-of-palau-lost-in-the-pacific/
The origin of the map is:
Sources: Norman Myers, “Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue”, 13. Economic
forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007.
Map by Emmanuelle Bournay, “Atlas environnement 2007 du Monde diplomatique”, Paris. Reproduced with permission from Le Monde diplomatique.
I can raise that fifty million to 100 million:-
Mike Gill, Fiona Godlee, Richard Horton & Robin Stott, “Doctors and climate change”, BMJ, 2007, December 1; 335 (7630): 1104–05:
Wait, I can raise that 100 million to 212 million:-
Frank Biermann & and Ingrid Boas, “Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees”, Global Environmental Politics, February 2010, Vol. 10, No. 1: 60-88 [citing Stern citing Myers].
The Stern Review on the economics of climate change,
Part II: The Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Development,
Chapter 3, “How climate change will affect people around the world”, p. 77:
Richard says:
Dude, that map is so un-cool. It has “coastlines particularly under threat by extreme weather and greater surf” with a graphic that’s supposed to match up on the map where they are. But I can’t see anywhere on the map that matches the graphic. Where can I find the greater surf?
Richard, look more closely and you will notice that the specific graphic matches ALL the coastlines for every continent. Either its worse than we thought, or the graphic guy made a boo-boo.
Here is another example of total bunk by opportunist author Gwynne Dyer. His books
“Climate Wars” is an apocalyptic prediction of mass immigration due to globull warming.
Mike says:
“First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.”
—————————————————-
#1 If you have the same or greater number of people immigrating into an area than you have emigrating from that area you have no net emigration (i.e. no refugees form that area). Also what would be the puropose of making an issue out of it if you expect the population to grow anyway.
#2 If the “climate” is causing people to flee an area would it not also dissuade people from moving into that area?
#3 If people are leaving an area en masse the birth rate should go down. Once again if the birth rate exceeds the rate of emigration by a sufficient margin to have net substantial increases in population what is the point in being alarmist anout it?
John Garrett at 8:03 pm: “somebody’s never laid eyes on St. Lucia. If that’s their idea of a low-lying island”
I recall driving east out of the capital city of Castries on its really terrifying near-vertical city roads, and of course I eventually had a little fender bender about 3/4 of the way up the hill. Parking there to examine the (very minor) damage was actually more worrisome than the drive itself. I was very concerned that the brakes might fail and the car plummet backwards down the fill.
Certainly the phrase “low-lying” did not come to mind.
As for the Vietnam Mekong, I suppose no one at UNEP has considered that the Delta is a natural floodplain which makes it one of the most fertile agricultural areas in the world and the unquestioned rice-basket of Vietnam, and there is no evidence of any kind whatsoever that local water levels have increased or decreased even a single scintilla in the last 7 to 9 decades.
Of course that’s merely empirical observed data from people who actually live at the edge of the river, i.e. my wife’s parents and family in Long Xuyen.
Also, doesn’t this prediction conflict with the alleged Mekong Delta droughts and water shortages that were widely touted last year due to Himalayan glacial melts and similar upstream catastrophes?