Hoo boy, government bureaucratic idiocy at its finest. Not only is the original claim bogus, the attempts to disappear it are hilariously inept. Apparently, they’ve never heard of Google Cache at the UN. Rather than simply say “we were wrong”, they’ve now brought even more distrust onto the UN.
Back on April 11th, Gavin Atkins of Asian Correspondent asked this simple question:
What happened to the climate refugees?
It is a valid question, and he backs it up with census numbers. Here’s the first part of his story:
==============================================================
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
The UNEP even provided a handy map. The map shows us the places most at risk including the very sensitive low lying islands of the Pacific and Caribbean.
It so happens that just a few of these islands and other places most at risk have since had censuses, so it should be possible for us now to get some idea of the devastating impact climate change is having on their populations. Let’s have a look at the evidence:
Nassau, The Bahamas – The 2010 national statistics recorded that the population growth increased to 353,658 persons in The Bahamas. The population change figure increased by 50,047 persons during the last 10 years.
The island-nation of Saint Lucia recorded an overall household population increase of 5 percent from May 2001 to May 2010 based on estimates derived from a complete enumeration of the population of Saint Lucia during the conduct of the recently completed 2010 Population and Housing Census.
Population 2002, 81755
Population 2010, 88311
The latest Solomon Islands population has surpassed half a million – that’s according to the latest census results.
It’s been a decade since the last census report, and in that time the population has leaped 100,000.
=========================================================
After Asian Correspondent posted the story on April 11th, it was picked up by news outlets around the world such as Investor News, American Spectator and was cited in the Australian newspaper. It was also a report on Fox News.
Since that story appeared, the “handy map” he cites in his original story, which has this URL:
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010
…seems to be gone down the memory hole. This is what you get now, note my yellow highlight:
Only one small problem there UN people, a little annoyance called Google cache, which has that page archived here.
It pulls up this page that had been removed, with the 50 million refugees title, but the map is missing. Click to enlarge.
Fear not dear readers, because as astoundingly smart as those UN people think they are, they forgot one very important yet tiny detail. The map links to a hi-resolution version of the “climate refugee map” and if you delete the page above and the map it contains, you also have to delete the hi-res image it links to.
http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/11kap9climat.png
Ooops.
I’m always happy to help the UN in times of “need”, sooooo I’ve recovered it and saved it here on WUWT, because that image link is likely to go down the memory hole on Monday.
Here’s the map at web resolution as it would have appeared in the disappeared web page above.
And here it is in full sized hi-resolution glory, suitable for printing, slides, or coffee mugs…wherever it might be appropriate to show the folly of these boneheads. Click the link for the hi-res image:
11kap9climat.png 3012 x 1699 pixels PNG (577K)
And there you have it folks, another bogus climate claim rubbished by reality, followed by an inept cover up attempt.
Thanks to the reality of census numbers, followed by the UN’s handling of this, we can now safely say that the claim is “climate refugees” is total fantasy. Be sure to leave comments on any website that makes this claim, and link to this and the Asian Correspondent website.
Kudos to Gavin Atkins for asking this simple question after 6 years of this fantasy being used to push an agenda
UPDATE: A couple of commenters asked for the source of the predictions. Happy to oblige. This is what the UNEP web page originally said and the author cited:
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
| Link to web-site | http://www.agassessment.org/ |
| Cartographer/
Designer |
Emmanuelle Bournay |
| Appears in | IAASTD – International assessment of agricultural science and technology for development |
| Published | 2008 |
UPDATE2: The goal posts are already being moved, now it is 2020 instead of 2010, see below.
And here’s the source of this new goal post, an announcement at the AAAS meeting in February:
Which a compliant media has bloviated all over the net, as if this new bogosity is somehow better than the old one. The professor who made that new 10 years hence claim, UCLA’s Cristina Tirado, has a public web page at UCLA here.
I’ve sent her this message tonight:
Dear Professor Tirado,
It appears that the original claim made by the UN of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 has been proven totally false by a simple census count. UNEP has already removed the claim from their website. See this story: http://wp.me/p7y4l-9T0
At AAAS in Feburary, you made a nearly identical claim, but simply 10 years into the future. On what basis did you make this claim, and in light of the failed prediction and removal by UNEP of the old claim, are you prepared to retract the new 2020 refugee claim you made here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnW80NlFZ259UCgMAHSd3ekHutiQ?docId=CNG.aa651167cd0af745b3cb395cf1d402e3.c41
Millions of readers await your response at WUWT. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
UPDATE3: Reader Andrew30 provides the linkage of this farce to the main body of the UN, not just the UNEP as some have complained.
General Assembly, 8 July 2008
GA/10725
Sixty-second General Assembly
Informal Meeting on Climate Change and Most Vulnerable Countries (AM)
Statements
SRGJAN KERIM, President of the General Assembly, opened the discussion by saying that 11 of the last 12 years had ranked among the 12 warmest since the keeping of global temperature records had begun in 1850. Two points were significant: that climate change was inherently a sustainable-development challenge; and that more efforts than ever before must be exerted to enable poor countries to prepare for impacts because it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
Panel Discussion
The Assembly then held a panel discussion moderated by author and journalist Eugene Linden. The panellists were Reid Basher, Senior Coordinator at the Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Ian Noble, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the World Bank; and Veerle Vandeweerd, Director of the Environment and Energy Group at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Source: http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10725.doc.htm
UPDATE4: In comments, there’s a suggestion that I’m laying claim to “first discovery”. I’m not, nor did I. This path of discovery that I learned today from various bits and pieces in email and posts is helpful.
Gavin Atkins was the first to call attention to the expired UN claim, he also highlighted the Google cache issue saying “However, if you are quick, you may yet be able to download a copy via google cache here.” …which I followed and was able to find and recover the high-res map myself and made my own screen caps. I found out Monday morning that Gatkins got the cache issue from Aaron Worthing here, who got it from his commenter “Carlos” – so it is Carlos who actually deserves credit for first noticing it (the 404 error).
Worthing was upset that I didn’t mention him but did mention Atkins. I’m writing this to correct that unintentional oversight.
I didn’t notice the small link on Atkins post to Worthing’s post (much further down than the Google cache link) because I was already on my way down the rabbit hole from the UNEP link Atkins provided high up in his post, paying attention to Atkins admonition: “However, if you are quick…” to follow the link. I know from experience that sometimes Google cache can last for days, sometimes minutes. When I followed it, the map was already gone as you can see in my own screencaps above.
Today I also found out that apparently I was getting Tweets from Atkins and Worthing last Fri/Sat that I should take notice of the issue…but those got left in the bit bucket because I never follow/read Tweets. I only use Twitter as an announcement service for WUWT. So if anyone expects to reach me via Twitter, please note that it is a lost cause.
I’m always happy to point out who gets credit when I know about it, and now that I know about it, here’s the credit chain: Gavin Atkins was the one to raise the issue, Aaron Worthing was the first to blog about the 404 error here, and his commenter “Carlos” was the first to notice the 404 error. I hope that clears up any misunderstandings.
The most important thing is that the UN issue is well known now and that many many people worked independently to make it happen. – Anthony
I did a google image search on “climate change refugee” and got 721,000 results.
The “fifty-million-climate-refugees-by-2010” shows up at:
http://apus-sustainability.com/2010/02/26/climate-refugees/
with additional commentary such as:
“scholars have estimated that by 2050, the world could have as many as 200 million climate refugees.”
http://www.climate.org/PDF/Environmental%20Exodus.pdf
So lots of fun reading. “New Zealand will be accepting migrants from Tuvalu which is expected to be completely underwater by 2050. ”
And apparantly I am funding some of these relocations taking place:
“Canada is funding the relocation of residents from parts of Vanuatu affected by global warming. ”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/19/rising-sea-levels-in-pacific-create-wave-of-migran/
Seems that these kinds of crazy predictions are all over the place. Here is one from 1988 predicting 1 meter of sea level rise over the next 50 years. 22 years along that path we have had 2.7 inches of sea level rise.
http://archives.cbc.ca/environment/climate_change/clips/14649/
What was it that CRU taught climatologists everywhere?
1) Delete evidence that does not agree (check)
2) Lie (check)
3) Do not to make testable predictions (damn)
(Looks like these guys have failed on 3) – they weren’t good climatologists)
PS…while pondering the peculiarity of the Orwellian revisionism, I stumbled on the following paper from the US office of national intelligence (branding work required):
http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/climate_change/cr200909_china_climate_change.pdf
‘China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 – Geopolitical Implications’ (so that is how they spend all the tax money)
And they know they can make absurd claims like that because the mass media will promote them widely when the claims are made yet be absolutely silent when they fail to materialize. The only information many people get is what blares through their car radio at the top of the hour during their commute. If it isn’t in that 5 minute newscast, it doesn’t exist for a lot of people. And getting a story such as “most climate warming consequences greatly exaggerated” in that 5 minute newscast is going to be practically impossible because it is guarded like Fort Knox. That newscast is the key to the American masses and they are careful to ensure that it contains only “the party line” when it comes to environmental news.
In other words, the role of the mass media is to keep the US population “properly” misinformed. If you want the real story, you have to work for it and dig it out.
Here is what Feynam’s wish would be to those who work for the UN
“Hoo boy, government idiocy at its finest”.
Major Error, Antony. The UN is NOT a Government, despite the unremitting efforts of the New World Order to make it so. While the UN shares many characteristics
of a Government – corruption, inefficiency, incompetence, financial incontinence, a safe harbour for rent-seekers – it is still merely a bureauocracy whose strictures can be safely ignored by every tin-pot dictator in the world. Referring to the UN as a government, even in jest, in such a prestigious journal as this, will merely encourage them in their delusions of grandure.
“Rattus Norvegicus says:
April 15, 2011 at 9:39 pm
I sent her a message which said that answering you was a losing game. I hope that she take my advice, you twist words.”
Anthony: I don’t think you “twist words” as much as some RATS mangle English.
@noel: “The first person who can point me to the authentic prediction wins a bottle of a good single-malt whiskey, say, “Glen Breton”
Well Noel I think you’ll find that all the predictions are authentic, they’re just not accurate. Talisker will do fine.
G
I am glad that many people can joke about it but I am beyond that today.
I am really terrified by the amount of brazen lies and power-grabbing propaganda we all are fed with every day on TV, on the radio, in the press, and on websites (excluding this one, of course). I feel extremely depressed by the ability of the human nature to absorb so much BS.
UN is a civilization-wrecking bunch of thieves’ deputies that should be dispersed, dismantled, banned, abolished, forgotten — ASAP!
Les bureacrates a la lanterne!
Sans typos:
Les bureaucrates à la lanterne!
@Rattus Norvegicus: “I sent her a message which said that answering you was a losing game. I hope that she take my advice, you twist words.”
What a wierd thing to do, don’t you have any buddies you can have a beer with? You know chew the fat, have a joke and a laugh? Get it out of your system by socialising, you’ll find yourself happier and less inclined to hating people you don’t know.
As an Aussie, my eye was drawn to Australia on the map. There is a yellow band, meaning ‘area exposed to desertification and drought’. The bottom half of that band has been inundated for 4-6 month. See </a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/03/07/sw-queensland-awash/" here for the town of Roma which is half way along that band. See also Broken Hill / Menindee and </a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/water-issues/life-flows-back-into-the-coorong-and-lower-lakes-20101001-16149.html?from=age_sb" here
With these outrageous claims increasing in frequency on an almost weekly basis would it be possible to offer a ‘reference’ section that listed on a two-line basis – ‘claim’ vs ‘actuality’ with two weblinks to the relevant articles?
We could vote for a ‘top 10’ !!!
Slight technical hitch: careful study of Pacific Islands by New Zealand researchers shows that most are growing, not disappearing.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/pacific-islands-have-not-shrunk-new-scientist-study/story-e6frg8y6-1225875124464
I encourage people to read the entire page linked, and especially to use the very thoughtfully provided links to social network sites.
I’ve just facebooked the page with my comment:
“Where’d they all go?”
Mocking laughter is the only proper response to this lunacy.
That map looks very silly. I live in Oulu, Finland:
http://maps.google.fi/maps?q=oulu&oe=utf-8&hl=fi&hq=&hnear=Oulu&ll=64.997939,25.488281&spn=30.191809,72.421875&z=4
Oulu is marked as an area that is vulnerable to ice and permafrost melting. I can assure you, there is no permafrost here, nor can permafrost be found for several hundred kilometers to the north.
Northern hemisphere permafrost extent can be seen from the map here: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/permafrost-extent-in-the-northern-hemisphere
And even in the extreme northern parts of the country, where there actually is some permafrost and multi-year ice, it doesn’t serve any positive function. I’m not a native english-speaker, but doesn’t the word “vulnerable” imply the effect is bad, like permafrost is serving some important purpose there? You don’t say “I’m vulnerable to winning in the lottery!”
The permafrost in northern scandinavia is in areas of no population, extremely thin (mostly rocky) soil, few animals and very little vegetation. Any increase in temperature will cause it to become more suitable for both flora and fauna. This is like winning in the lottery for everyone involved.
They seem to be splashing those colors anywhere on the map where they think it looks credible.
ZT
OMG, that video was so funny. I laughed so hard. She is brilliant!!
WUWT have showed us over and over again that AGW do not have any scientific ground. Case closed. Thank You for this big effort.
It may be interesting to investigate why AGW became such a popular agenda for governments and organisations?
I believe our governments and politicians as well as the voting people like the idea to have a imaginary problem instead of deal with real problem. Like job, economy, war, health, education, infrastructure, to mention a few issues. A easy way out from real life and everyday problem. And also for the media. New problem instead of the same old one.
In short. A big cover up for real mistakes.
Example UN: they lack success stories so they need to have one issue, to work with that cant fail. AGW fit perfect for this inefficient bureaucrats.
Instead of produce significant results in global health, freedom, education have they focus of a imaginary problem.
So convenient.
The source quoted on the UNEP web site is a paper by Prof. Norman Myers, of Green College, Oxford University, U.K. presented at an OSCE forum in 2005. The crucial paragraph is:
“As far back as 1995 (latest date for a comprehensive assessment), these environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million
traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and
ethnic troubles). The environmental refugees total could well double between 1995
and 2010. Moreover, it could increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing
numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on over-loaded environments.
When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people
overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts
of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding.”
Note that Myers is careful to use the term Environmental Refugees and he does not claim the 25 million such refugees in 1995 nor the 50 million refugees predicted for 2010 are a result of climate change. Apart from the reference in the above paragraph to ‘global warming’ he only mentions climate once stating “the recurrent droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa cannot all be blamed on climate.”
It is clear the UN misinterpreted Myer’s paper and the map is a fabrication.
The paper is still (at the time of writing) on line at:
http://www.osce.org/eea/14851
I have two points to make.
First, population censuses alone are not enough to prove or disprove that people are moving. They include new births and if (together with immigrants) these exceed new deaths and emigrants, the of course the number will go up.
Second, research by the International Institute for Environment and Development in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania found no evidence that environmental degradation linked to climate change would result in large flows of international migrants.
How long before we get a dumb climate scientist or UN official claiming reugees from Libya and other upsurging nations are attributed to Global Warming?
A few other things gone by 2010
Global warming will make climates disappear
The Australian March 29, 2007
“IF trends in global warming continue, South Australia’s climate would vanish by 2010, taking with it vulnerable plants and animals.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/global-warming-will-make-climates-disappear/story-e6frg6p6-1111113246153
As the World gets hotter, will Britain get colder?
The Guardian Thursday 21 June 2001
“Glaciers in the tropical Andes and Africa are in retreat, and could disappear by 2010”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2001/jun/21/globalwarming.physicalsciences
4C: Beautiful One day
ABC 4 Corners 22 April, 2002
“Across the world, coral reefs are turning into marine deserts. It’s estimated that more than a quarter have been lost and that 40 per cent could be gone by 2010.”
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/archives/2002a_Monday22April2002.htm
Two more climate refugees here. Alberta to Texas.
If global warming won’t come to us….
And, we bought TWO refrigerators with ice makers to put in our Texas refugee center….