Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

More low climate sensitivity

This paper A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series from Skeie et al is now in open peer review at Earth System Dynamics. They say an ECS of 1.84 … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 54 Comments

Quote of the week – on the usefulness of climate models

From Dr. Judith Curry:

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 98 Comments

A low-sensitivity climate model that outperforms the Met Office’s HADGEM2

Climate sensitivity is IMHO, the most important unresolved issue in climate science. A number of recent papers, including the IPCC AR5 leak, plus the recent Economist leak of a later AR5 draft are pointing to lower climate sensitivities than what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

Newsbytes: The Economist Reveals Sensitive IPCC Information

IPCC Draft Lowers Global Warming Projections on Climate Sensitivity “That report is going to scare the wits out of everyone,” said Yvo de Boer recently. He is a former United Nations chief climate negotiator and was talking about the forthcoming … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, Newsbytes | Tagged , , | 58 Comments

The Thousand-Year Model

Guest Post By Willis Eschenbach Back in 2007, Jeffrey Kiehl first pointed out a curious puzzle about the climate models, viz: (emphasis mine) [3] A review of the published literature on climate simulations of the 20th century indicates that a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 50 Comments

Climate Sensitivity Deconstructed

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I haven’t commented much on my most recents posts, because of the usual reasons: a day job, and the unending lure of doing more research, my true passion. To be precise, recently I’ve been frying … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 291 Comments

Australian scientists take 6 degrees of global warming off the table, say it is closer to 2 degrees

From the University of Melbourne Scientists narrow global warming range Australian scientists have narrowed the predicted range of global warming through groundbreaking new research. Scientists from the University of Melbourne and Victoria University have generated what they say are more reliable projections … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 85 Comments

Updated climate sensitivity estimates using aerosol-adjusted forcings and various ocean heat uptake estimates

Guest essay by Nic Lewis The Otto et al. paper has received a great deal of attention in recent days. While the paper’s estimate of transient climate response was low, the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity figure was actually slightly higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 113 Comments

Model Climate Sensitivity Calculated Directly From Model Results

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE: Steven Mosher pointed out that I have calculated the transient climate response (TCR) rather than the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). For the last half century, the ECS has been about 1.3 times the TCR … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 133 Comments

Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors

Yesterday, WUWT was honored to have a guest essay by co-author Nic Lewis on the new Otto et al paper that pegs Transient Climate Response (TCR) at 1.3°C along with Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity at 2.0°C. Lewis , who had previously published … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 44 Comments

New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

See also: Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors New energy-budget-derived estimates of climate sensitivity and transient response in Nature Geoscience Guest post by Nic Lewis Readers … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 194 Comments

New paper from Otto et al and Nic lewis shows transient climate sensitivity less than 2C

UPDATE: this post has been superseded by the new guest essay from Nic Lewis which you can see here: New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged | 1 Comment

Claim: How the IPCC arrived at climate sensitivity of about 3 deg C instead of 1.2 deg C.

UPDATE from Girma: “My title should have been ‘How to arrive at IPCC’s climate sensitivity estimate’ instead of the original” Guest essay by Girma Orssengo, PhD 1) IPCC’s 0.2 deg C/decade warming rate gives a change in temperature of dT … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 172 Comments

The beginning of the end: warmists in retreat on sea level rise, climate sensitivity

The forecast: It seems there’s less chance of gloom and doom these days. For sea level rise, now a maximum of about two feet by 2100. As for climate sensitivity, now for the first time ever, we are seeing mentions … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Sea level | Tagged , , , , , , | 88 Comments

A compilation of lower climate sensitivities, plus a new one

Still Another Low Climate Sensitivity Estimate Guest post By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 60 Comments

Some sense about sensitivity

Excerpts from The Register, coverage of the Nic Lewis paper. This graph below from Bishop Hill shows that it isn’t just one paper, but several now that show lower climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. =============================================================== More and more … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 63 Comments

Dana Nuccitelli’s meany mode is like stinky cheese

Dana (Scooter) Nuccitelli, lead attack kid at the SkS Treehut gets schooled. Bishop Hill writes: Last week I ribbed Dana Nuccitelli and Gavin Schmidt over the former’s comparing the mean of the Aldrin paper to the mode of Lewis’s. Here’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Ridiculae | 65 Comments

Dehumidifying the Tropics

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I once had the good fortune to fly over an amazing spectacle, where I saw all of the various stages of emergent phenomena involving thunderstorms. It happened on a flight over the Coral Sea from … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 73 Comments

Efficacy Of Green House Gas Forcing Compared To Solar Forcing

Guest post by Bob Irvine SUMMARY This paper outlines an idea or hypothesis that should be discussed. This idea has the huge advantage of being supported by all the available data both from over the last thousand years or more, … Continue reading

Posted in Citizen science, Climate sensitivity | 92 Comments

Numeracy in Climate Discussions – how long will it take to get a 6C rise in temperature?

The answer may surprise you Note: This essay is a result of an email discussion this morning, I asked Dr. Happer to condense and complete that discussion for the benefit of WUWT readers. This is one of the most enlightening … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity | 238 Comments

Another paper finds lower climate sensitivity

Yesterday we talked about the new paper from Nic Lewis, now Troy Masters has a new paper in press at Climate Dynamics here. Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 62 Comments

An objective Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Guest post by Nic Lewis Many readers will know that I have analysed the Forest et al., 2006, (F06) study in some depth. I’m pleased to report that my paper reanalysing F06 using an improved, objective Bayesian method was accepted … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 87 Comments

A Comparison Of The Earth’s Climate Sensitivity To Changes In The Nature Of The Initial Forcing

Guest post by Bob Irvine ABSTRACT The Earth’s feedback response to warming is independent of the nature of the forcing that caused that warming. The question I intend to examine is whether the nature of the forcing will have a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 114 Comments

A sea-change on climate sensitivity at The Economist

People send me stuff, today it was this “editors picks” from John Micklethwait, editor of The Economist. After years of being pro-warming, I was shocked to see this headline as a “pick”. It seems a change in editorial position may … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, media | Tagged , , , , , , | 103 Comments

The Revkin-Gavin debate on lower climate sensitivity

Lower climate sensitivity is getting some mainstream discussion. Last week at WUWT, we had this story: BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC which is now the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 123 Comments

The yearly lukewarm report

UPDATE: Andrew Revkin has a similar story today, see below. Robert Bradley, who runs Master Resource, a blog about energy and climate, gave me unsolicited permission to reprint this article to increase its reach, and I’m happy to do so. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC

UPDATE: Annan now suggests the IPCC “is in a bit of a pickle”, see below. UPDATE2: Title has been changed to reflect Annan’s new essay, suggesting lying for political purposes inside the IPCC. Also added some updates about Aldrin et … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , | 452 Comments

Yet another study shows lower climate sensitivity

Global warming less extreme than feared? Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2°C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared. Internationally renowned … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 187 Comments

Commitment studies belie “consensus” claim that a persistent high level of temperature forcing cannot cause continued warming

Guest post by Alec Rawls They say it all the time: even if there were some substantial mechanism of enhanced solar forcing it couldn’t be responsible for late 20th century warming because solar activity was roughly constant from 1950 to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Cosmic rays | Tagged , , , , , , , | 179 Comments

Does The Effect From The Cause Affect The Cause?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s been a recent paper claiming a long-term correlation between CO2 and sea level, discussed here at WUWT. The paper implies that CO2 controls temperature and thus indirectly sea level. I thought I might follow … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 142 Comments

Bethlehem and the rat-hole problem

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In the closing minutes of the final plenary of the U.N.’s Doha climate summit, when no one else had anything further to add, I spent a few seconds telling the delegates something that the bad … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, COP conferences, The Rat-hole problem | Tagged , , , , , | 544 Comments

Why doesn’t the AR5 SOD’s climate sensitivity range reflect its new aerosol estimates?

This article is a detailed complement to Matt Ridley’s Op-Ed today in the Wall Street Journal: Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change Evidence points to a further rise of just 1°C by 2100. The net effect on the planet … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Climate sensitivity, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

An Interim Look At Intermediate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth; whenever it is a damp, drizzly November in my soul; whenever I find myself involuntarily pausing before coffin warehouses, and bringing up the rear of every … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 92 Comments

A Brief History of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record-Breaking

Guest Post by David Middleton The World Meteorological Organization (Why do I always think of Team America: World Police whenever “World” and “Organization” appear in the same title?) recently announced that atmospheric greenhouse gases had once again set a new … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity, Consensus, Current News, Paleoclimatology, Temperature, United Nations | Tagged , , | 84 Comments

A problem: nearly one third of CO2 emissions occured since 1998, and it hasn’t warmed

Guest post by Tom Fuller The physics behind the theory of global warming are solid. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, we’re emitting industrial levels of it, with China now in the lead for emissions. A significant portion remains in the … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 206 Comments