Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah. Copyright Charles Rotter

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #535

The Week That Was: 2023-01-07 (January 7, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week:The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing.” — Albert Einstein.

Number of the Week: 5% Increase

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: Among the issues that are discussed are: Kenneth Richard of No Tricks Zone brings attention to a paper written by Wallace Manheimer in the Journal of Sustainable Development, “an international, double-blind peer-reviewed, open-access journal published by the Canadian Center of Science and Education.” The retired physicist from the US Naval Research Laboratory discusses climate over a Geological Time Scale pointing out that there is a poor correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures. https://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd

John Christy along with Roy Spencer developed the method of comprehensively measuring global temperature trends of the lower troposphere (and other atmospheric layers) from an isotope of oxygen using microwave sounding units on satellites. Christy consented to an interview by BizNews TV in which he describes himself as being a climate nerd since he was ten years old.

Based on reviewers’ comments on a paper Roy Spencer and Christy submitted on the impact of El Niño and La Niña on climate sensitivity estimates, Spencer has re-cast the paper. It now addresses the larger question:

“If we take all of the various surface and sub-surface temperature datasets and their differing estimates of warming over the last 50 years, what does it imply for climate sensitivity?”

In A Walk On The Natural Side, ecologist Jim Steele begins by discussing that salt laden Solar Ponds can develop layers of salt density and store solar heat to temperatures up to about 90°C (190°F). Up to 10.5 feet deep (3.2 meters) layers of water develop, depending on density, with the more salty and therefore highest density layers on the bottom. These dense layers suppress convection (mixing) from the bottom, resulting in high temperatures at the bottom, rather than at the usually experienced top. Steele extends this concept to discuss the western Pacific Warm Pool and its influence on climate.

Writing in Climate Etc. Planning Engineer Russell Schussler discusses how simplistically politicians and academicians discuss the complex, dynamic electronic machine known as The Grid which must be balanced within tight tolerances twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, three hundred sixty-five days a year (24/7/365). Averages are meaningless when lives depend on the grid working all the time, and when it does not work the results can be disastrous.

The “great” California drought appears to be ending. Meteorologist Cliff Mass explains why. Further, the Buffalo Blizzard brought into question New York State’s plan to make western New York a Solar Center.

Several commentators state that once-reliable government entities that could be depended upon accurately to report the results of their research and assembly of data are falsifying reports to a political agenda, much to the harm of the public.

The Heartland Climate Conference offers an alternative to groupthink so prevalent today.

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Poor Relationship: Physicist Wallace Manheimer has extensively reviewed published material on climate and found there is very little evidence on which to abandon fossil fuels in favor of wind and solar. The abstract of his paper states:

“Over the period of human civilization, the temperature has oscillated between quite a few warm and cold periods, with many of the warm periods being warmer than today. During geological times, it and the carbon dioxide level have been all over the place with no correlation between them.”

To support his claims, he provides evidence from numerous sources including a graph of relationship between temperature proxies and CO2 proxies that go back about 425 million years. Some critics of Manheimer may claim that things may have changed in the past 50 years or since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. But unless they can show that the molecular structure of carbon dioxide has changed, they have no basis for claiming the influence of CO2 is greater now than it was millions of years ago. Manheimer concludes his review with:

“As a final indication of the lack of confidence that the threat of a climate crisis is real, there was a large international meeting to discuss the climate dilemma in Scotland in November 2021. World leaders, including President Biden and many European leaders, attended. However, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, China, and Turkey voted with their feet, and did not attend. The leader of India attended but announced that India would not be reducing its CO2 emission until 2070, an absolutely meaningless commitment. These are large, important, technically advanced countries, containing ~ 40% of the world’s population. Actually, the western democracies are not all that different. Typically, some bureaucrat orders that we have to stop or reduce the use of fossil fuel in this way and that. Occasionally the new rule is put to a vote, and the new rule is almost always rejected by the voters. As Yogi Berra put it ‘If people don’t want to come to the ballpark, you can’t stop ‘em’.

“Unlike the claims of believers that there is nearly universal (i.e. 97%) agreement on the scientific basis for CO2 levels being a crucial dial which controls the earth’s temperature, this author finds that there is a vast literature, and vast amounts of data from extremely qualified scientists disputing this. If in fact ‘the science is settled’, it seems to be much more settled in the fact that there is no particular correlation between CO2 level and the earth’s temperature.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/4/76.

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Show Me The Evidence: In a low-keyed interview Alabama State Climatologist John Christy describes the advantages of the satellite dataset over surface temperature measurements: surface measurements are scattered, not rigorous, and not robust. Satellite trends are true global measurements, taken with 14 orbits per day, measure deep layers of the atmosphere, and are not affected by spurious changes in local land use.

In testing various theories and claims about the human causes of climate change Christy’s attitude is to build the datasets first, and then test the claims. He finds that 100% of the global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers [which are built on surface temperature measurements], show more warming of the atmosphere than what is actually occurring. Roy Spencer and he have been publishing papers on this since 1994. Yet, despite this fact even the latest IPCC models show twice as much atmospheric warming as what is occurring.

Christy finds that the Earth can survive CO2 warming and that increasing CO2 has great benefits for the environment and agriculture. As to the claimed Climate Crisis, in Washington the more dramatic your story, the greater is the possible funding. Politicians wish to claim there is a problem and that they can solve it. Christy has testified these facts before Congress some 20 times, and it makes no difference.

A major problem with the models is that they ignore the increase radiation emitted by a warming surface of the earth. As Howard Hayden has written, the Stefan-Boltzmann law must always be applied to model-generated surface temperatures. The radiative forcing caused by increased CO2 and other GHGs is always incapable of retaining the increased surface emission from putative warming.

Christy has written a book, A Practical Guide to Climate Change in Alabama, that can be downloaded for free as a PDF file. Although its emphasis is on the state of Alabama, the book has a lot of data for not only the US but for the entire world.  This book shows that in the past 140 years there are no real trends in extreme weather using all the stations that cover the entire trend.

Christy admits that he cannot reliably state the warming due to carbon dioxide emitted by human activity but estimates it is about 0.1°C per decade. He states that the global average temperature can change by 0.2°C per month. He estimates that a doubling of CO2 from about 1850 levels may change temperatures by 1.3°C. [According to Howard Hayden, 1.3°C may be too large an estimate.] During the past forty years agriculture has boomed and Americans have moved south. [People voted with their feet.] See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy, http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022, and

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Bottom End: Roy Spencer develops a one-dimensional (1D) model estimate of what all the current ground and subsurface datasets indicate temperatures will increase with a doubling of CO2. This is all based on a critical assumption:

“But for the purpose of demonstration, let’s assume it’s true in today’s climate system, and that the only thing causing recent warming is anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission (mainly CO2). Does the current rate of warming suggest (as we are told) that a global warming disaster is upon us? I think this is an important question to address, separate from the question of whether some of the recent warming is natural (which would make AGW even less of a problem).”

Spencer states:

“Our approach is somewhat different from Lewis & Curry (2018). First, we use only data from the most recent 50 years (1970-2021), which is the period of most rapid growth in CO2-caused forcing, the period of most rapid temperature rise, and about as far back as one can go and talk with any confidence about ocean heat content (a very important variable in climate sensitivity estimates).

“Secondly, our model is time-dependent, with monthly time resolution, allowing us to examine (for instance) the recent acceleration in deep ocean temperature (ocean heat content) rise.

“In contrast to Lewis & Curry and differencing two time periods’ averages separated by 100+ years, our approach is to use a time-dependent model of vertical energy flows, which I have blogged on before. It is run at monthly time resolution, so allows examination of such issues as the recent acceleration of the increase in oceanic heat content (OHC).

“In response to reviewers’ comments, I extended the domain from non-ice covered (60N-60S) oceans to global coverage (including land), as well as borehole-based estimates of deep-land warming trends (I believe a first for this kind of work). The model remains a 1D model of temperature departures from assumed energy equilibrium, within three layers, shown schematically in Fig. 1.” [Not shown here]

After going through various steps for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), Spencer concludes:

“I’ve used a 1D time-dependent model of temperature departures from assumed energy equilibrium to address the question: Given the various estimates of surface and sub-surface warming over the last 50 years, what do they suggest for the sensitivity of the climate system to a doubling of atmospheric CO2? [Emphasis in original]

“Using the most recent estimates of effective radiative forcing from Annex III in the latest IPCC report (AR6), the observational data suggest lower climate sensitivities (ECS) than promoted by the IPCC with a central estimate of +2.09 deg C. for the global average. This is at the bottom end of the latest IPCC (AR6) likely range of 2.0 to 4.5 deg. C.

“I believe this is still likely an upper bound for ECS, for the following reasons. [Boldface added]

  1. Borehole temperatures suggest there has been a long-term warming trend, at least up into the early 20th Century. Ignoring this (whatever its cause) will lead to inflated estimates of ECS.
  • I still believe that some portion of the land temperature datasets has been contaminated by long-term increases in Urban Heat Island effects, which are indistinguishable from climatic warming in homogenization schemes.

See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Warm Pool Issues: In his usual low-keyed style, ecologist Jim Steele introduces readers (or viewers of the video) to salt laden, solar ponds, to illustrate the difference between Radiative heating and Dynamical heating, stating that the dynamical heating even occurs in Antarctica where the bottom of Lake Vanda is about 70°F (20°C). He goes into the importance of mixing in ocean layers before contrasting solar heating with greenhouse gas heating. He writes:

“In contrast to deep solar heating, longwave greenhouse energy behaves very differently. Although greenhouse energy supplies nearly twice the energy to the skin layer, that energy does not penetrate any deeper than a few microns. Thus, unlike the delayed cooling of deeper layers, absorbed greenhouse heat can be radiated back to space immediately.

“A 2018 ocean study measured 410 W/m2 of greenhouse longwave energy entering the ocean’s skin surface, while simultaneously the skin surface radiated away 470 W/m2. The skin layer almost immediately radiated the 410 W/m2 of greenhouse heat back to space [the energy was not absorbed] plus an additional 60 W/m2 of radiation from the rising solar-heated layers. In addition, the skin surface lost latent heat (LH) via evaporation and sensible heat (SH) via contact with the atmosphere.”

Steele carries the analogy to the western Pacific Warm Pool, and the differences between El Niño and La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The sharp increases in the UAH Satellite-Based temperature record over the past 40 some years have been in El Niño phases.

Steele then goes into the changing climate over the past 90 million years, then concludes:

“Likewise, before believing we are plunging into a human-caused climate crisis, please ask:

“How does radiative and dynamical heating increase warm pool temperatures?

“How does greenhouse energy possibly heat below the skin surface? [of oceans]

“How does exported heat from warm pools affect our climate and what are the contributions of natural La Nina and El Nino-like conditions.” [Boldface added]

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Don’t Mess It Up: Planning Engineer Russell Schussler has numerous warnings to academics, including research organizations and politicians, who wish to “improve” The Grid – be very careful. In the first part of a series, he demonstrates his admiration for what we have. He writes:

“As I like to say, the electric grid is the largest, most wonderful, most complex machine ever. Meeting the electric needs of our nation depends on many specialists and experts in far ranging efforts including generation, transmission, distribution, maintenance, and operations as well as within the many subfields encompassing these broad areas. The grid must operate seamlessly across a variety of conditions without pause. Recognizing the difference between what theory suggests and practical knowledge demonstrates is critical.”

He emphasizes that focusing on one portion of this complex machine usually ignores its complexity and causes harm. He adds:

The grid and power supply arrangements are an extremely complex system. The interplay and interactions among the components are extensive and complicated. Change a puzzle piece and the entire puzzle changes. Actions taken to address one problem will typically create new problems and also aggravate other problems. The negative effects of such system ‘fixes’ may or may not be visible for some time. It’s a rare academic who can successfully grapple with the great complexities of the power system. Specialization is an easier approach. While findings from academics and specialists can have great value, their findings should not be taken to extremes. The typical course for successful ‘revolutionary’ ideas is that after some struggles to implement working applications they eventually make a modest improvement within some niche of the industry.

Big changes need to be developed slowly, such as power electronics, the application of electronics to the control and conversion of electric power. This was far more costly than originally thought.

“Years later I found it was worth tens of millions to install a large power electronic device called a Static Var Compensator (SVC) to have on standby to prevent a potential voltage collapse problem that had emerged on the grid. Today power electronics play many important roles in the grid. They are a major part of what makes a grid ‘smart’. They enable asynchronous wind and solar generation to be converted to alternating current on the grid. Power electronics support voltages and help keep the system stable in many ways in varying situations. But they did not take the industry by storm in a short time frame as envisioned by the early reports. They were first employed in niches where they provided particular benefits. As experience was gained and improvements made, they grew to become more and more important. They key to adoption was that installations were built on successive successes. I suspect top-down mandates to broadly use such devices might have actually hindered development and adoption.”

Schussler concludes this warning with:

“Academic research that promotes improvements to the power grid need to be evaluated carefully with the understanding that the grid is a complex system full of interactions. Changes to the grid involve numerous hurdles. Language is often imprecise. For instance, when readers see a statement stating, ‘Solar and wind could attain penetration levels of X’. What the statement really means is ‘Based on the factors I looked at and ignoring a vast number of critical requirements I have not looked at, solar and wind may be able to replace fossil resources at a level of X. But probably not.’ Unfortunately, the statement is often interpreted as ‘Solar and wind can attain penetration levels of X with no significant concerns.’

Similarly, when a study quotes a cost, it should be understood that unless specified differently, the cost is for the specific problem at hand, invariably there will be many other costs added to implement this approach often dwarfing the provided number. If a study quotes a figure in the billions to provide connections for infrastructure to connect distant wind and solar to load centers and/or allow for diversity, you can be fairly certain that additional improvements to the underlying systems will rival or exceed the reported cost.

For those without a strong technical background, it’s hard sometimes to tell what is meant by various terms. There are many definitions of capacity factor. The difference between power and energy is critical though not always grasped. It’s understandable that individuals might be confused by academic studies and articles concerning the grid. Media reporters should do better. The results may be tragic when exaggerated and misunderstood findings influence policy makers and impact policy.

Look for a follow up piece titled, Academics and the Grid: Part 2 Are they Studying the Right Things? It will provide additional context and support for the central ideas here. [Boldface added]

See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy for this and the announcement of Donn Dears new book with emphasis on “The Challenge of Replacing Fossil Fuels”, an impossible task?

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Changing Weather: Meteorologist Cliff Mass discussing what may be the ending of the California Drought. In the past, such storms were called “The Pineapple Express” and this one originated near Hawaii. In February 2017, heavy rainfall damaged the main and emergency spillways of the Oroville Dam prompting the evacuation of more than 180,000 people from the Feather River basin, a tributary to the Sacramento River. The heavy rains were quickly forgotten in the drought that followed.

Similarly, The State of New York is subsidizing the establishment of a solar center in and around Buffalo. How quickly will it forget the recent storm? See links under Changing Weather and https://buffalosolar.com/?fbclid=IwAR0cBc8hW6Gh3ZQJbSWRkVOK-EJHFRjdf5plhnjbPXQ19EprrXYVsMgqdLY

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No More: John Hinderaker of Power Line brings up the disappointing news that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job creation of over one million in the second quarter of 2022, before the election. According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, this job creation was largely fictitious. In the 1970s the Bureau of Labor Statistics was trustworthy by bravely standing up to President Nixon and would not manipulate employment data – that integrity is no more! See links under Lowering Standards”

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Beyond Groupthink: The 15th Climate Change Conference by The Heartland Institute will be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, at the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It will feature over 40 speakers, including members of the SEPP Board of Directors, Willie Soon and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will address the question: “Is Climate Science Scientific?” See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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Number of the Week: 5% Increase: In a video, the Computational Research Division of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory announced that climate change is causing the current Pineapple Express (atmospheric river) to increase by 5%.

What caused the extreme flooding in the winter of 1861-62? This was the worst flooding of the Sacramento River since the US seized control of California. Is this another data-challenged computer “expert” claiming an increase of 5% in extreme weather events from added CO2? Based on contemporary observations of their behavior before the 1861-62 floods, native Americans probably better understood the signs of atmospheric rivers than these experts. (The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is separate from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory which announced the successful brief, nuclear fusion experiment.)

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

 

Censorship

YouTube Pulls Down Heartland Institute’s Channel Just Before Live-stream with Climate Scientist Judith Curry

By Jim Lakely, The Heartland Institute, Jan 6, 2022

 

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Scientist: ‘There Is No Climate Crisis’ And ‘No Particular Correlation Between CO2 And Temperature’

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 2, 2023

Link to paper: While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis

By Wallace Manheimer, Journal of Sustainable Development, Sep 8, 2022

https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/0/47745

Data shows there’s no climate catastrophe looming – climatologist Dr J Christy debunks the narrative

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 18, 2022

Video

Climate Sensitivity from 1970-2021 Warming Estimates

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 19, 2022

The Science of Solar Ponds Challenges the Climate Crisis

By Jim Steele, A Walk On The Natural Side, Jan 5, 2022

https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-science-of-solar-ponds-challenges.html

Video: https://youtu.be/wl3_YQ_Vufo

Low atmospheric CO2 levels before the rise of forested ecosystems

By Tais W. Dahl, et al., Nature Communications, Dec 20, 2022 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35085-9#citeas

From the Abstract: “We find that the atmosphere contained ~525–715 ppm CO2 before continents were afforested, and that Earth was partially glaciated according to a palaeoclimate model.”

“A process-driven biogeochemical model (COPSE) shows the appearance of trees with deep roots did not dramatically enhance atmospheric CO2 removal. Rather, shallow-rooted vascular ecosystems could have simultaneously caused abrupt atmospheric oxygenation and climatic cooling long before the rise of forests, although earlier CO2 levels are still unknown.”

It is Time to Talk About “Capacity Factors”

By Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist and commodity trader, Switzerland/Singapore, Via WUWT, Dec 27, 2022

“#Germany is a good example: Total installed power capacity more than doubled in the past 20 years, essentially all consisting of wind and solar (see figure below)

“Wind and solar installed capacity is now above 125GW, more than 150% higher than peak power demand in Germany of around 80GW

“Germany’ conventional installed power capacity consisting of coal, gas, and nuclear still barely matches peak power demand

“With all this capacity addition in Germany, wind and solar made up less than 30% of total electricity generation in 2021 and about 5% of total energy consumption”

The faux urgency of the climate crisis is giving us no time or space to build a secure energy future

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 27, 2022

My Energy Story

How I became the world’s leading champion of fossil fuels

By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Dec 30, 2022

https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/my-energy-story?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[SEPP Comment: A self-promotion piece; however, as Richard Courtney writes: “I commend everybody to read it because Epstein seems to be capturing attention with all the arguments about fossil fuel usage that I have been failing in my attempts to successfully promote for decades.”]

Challenging the Orthodoxy – Walter Cunningham – RIP

Astronaut Col. Walt Cunningham, a Great American Legacy

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Jan 6, 2022

https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/astronaut-walt-cunningham/2023/01/06/id/1103330/

Defending the Orthodoxy

Global climate goal ‘gasping for breath,’ UN chief says

By Juliea Mueller, The Hill, Dec 20, 2022

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

A startup says it’s begun releasing particles into the atmosphere, in an effort to tweak the climate

Make Sunsets is already attempting to earn revenue for geoengineering, a move likely to provoke widespread criticism.

By James Temple, MIT Technology Review, Dec 24, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startup-says-its-begun-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-in-an-effort-to-tweak-the-climate/

Claim: Aussie Renewables Could Have Prevented Higher Bills and Blackouts

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 26, 2022

Yet Another “Plastic Kills” Story

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 23, 2022

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Academics and the grid Part I: I don’t think that study means what you think it means

By Planning Engineer (Russell Schussler), Climate Etc. Jan 4, 2023

“Academics can approach the grid with some detachment while practicing engineers must keep it running 24/7/365.”

Clean Energy Crisis

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 3, 2023

The World is Not Ending | Bjørn Lomborg and Jordan Peterson

Video by Jordan Peterson, WUWT, Dec 22, 2022

What If Real-World Physics Do Not Support The Claim Top-Of-Atmosphere CO2 Forcing Exists?

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 22, 2022

Link to paper: Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover

By Tapio Schneider, et al. PNAS, Nov16, 2020

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2003730117

From NASA article on Top of the Atmosphere: “Because snow and ice are so reflective, scientists have long expected that melting of snow and ice in the polar regions will accelerate climate warming by reducing the Earth’ albedo. Atmospheric scientist Seiji Kato of NASA’s Langley Research Center and several teammates have used a suite of NASA and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations to investigate whether this feedback is already underway. The team compared reflected sunlight, clouds, and sea ice and snow cover at polar latitudes from 2000-2004. What they found was a bit of a surprise: while snow and ice in the Arctic declined, the albedo didn’t change.”https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7373/the-top-of-the-atmosphere

Nature Controls CO2 – Not Man: Op-Ed

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2023

Link to article: Nature Controls CO2 – Not Man: Op-Ed

By Tom Tamarkin, Shale Mag, Nov 4, 2022

From Shale Mag article: “As an avid studier of all things ‘climate change’ related I tracked the impact this significant fuel use reduction had on the Keeling Curve.  The Keeling Curve is the chart tracking carbon dioxide in the atmosphere based on near-daily measurements at the Mauna Lao observatory located on the big island of Hawaii.

“The effect was both shocking and predictable. The marked reduction of fossil fuel use had no effect on the Keeling Curve which continued its virtual 45% upward slope on the highly exaggerated chart expressed as parts per million per year.  This was wholly consistent with our findings over the previous 10 years as developing countries increased fossil use with no corresponding change of CO2 as reflected in this curve.”

Why We Should Be Wary of Climate Alarmism — We Just Froze

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Dec 27, 2022

https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/bomb-cyclone-tva/2022/12/27/id/1102038/

Another New Study Affirms The Arctic Was Warmer With Less Sea Ice During The Mid-Holocene

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 29, 2022

Link to paper: Enhanced Arctic sea ice melting controlled by larger heat discharge of mid-Holocene rivers

By Jiang Dong, et al. Nature Communications, Sep 13, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33106-1

[SEPP Comment: Question the extent of heat discharge of mid-Holocene rivers.]

Being Disagreeable – At Christmas

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Dec 24, 2022

“In 2022, to be sceptical of the climate catastrophe is to be a social outcast, and this extends to wanting to celebrate the health of the Great Barrier Reef. We are meant to be crying over everything. Yet Christmas should be a joyous time.”

By the way we might all be wrong

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

“GMST is of course “Global Mean Surface Temperature”. So in English it might be that changes in temperature trends in the last 20 years are due to natural causes. Which, if true, puts the kibosh on the whole CO2-as-the-control-knob-of-the-global-thermostat theory. Alarmists are pretty slick with their explanations of why warming causes cooling, and snow proves it’s getting hotter, and drought or flooding does too. But at some point a very basic point becomes visible through the fog: If rising CO2 does not reliably correlate with rising temperature over time the theory that it does is wrong.”

Everybody knows: climate change is a crisis

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

Energy and Environmental Review: January 2, 2023

By John Droz, Jr., Mater Resource, Jan 2, 2023

After Paris!

COP15: Key outcomes agreed at the UN biodiversity conference in Montreal

By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, Dec 20, 2022

UN WMO: La Niña Protection from Global Warming will be “Short Lived”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 26, 2022

Change in US Administrations

Biden administration finalizes rule cutting truck pollution

By Raqchel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 20, 2022

Link to: Basic Information about NO2

By Staff, EPA, Accessed Dec 22, 2022

https://www.epa.gov/no2-pollution/basic-information-about-no2#What%20is%20NO2

From website: “Breathing air with a high concentration of NO2 can irritate airways in the human respiratory system,”

“The EPA said Tuesday that its final rule is expected to result in up to 2,900 fewer premature deaths by 2045. It’s also expected to result in 18,000 fewer cases of childhood asthma.”

[SEPP Comment: High concentrations irritate, therefore low concentrations kill? Other questionable claims are acid rain (all rain is acidic), haze in national parks (often occurring when natural VOCs are high), and nutrient pollution of coastal waters?]

Biden administration proposing phaseout of compact fluorescent light bulbs

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 29, 2022

“Energy Department estimates project that the proposed rule announced Monday would save about $20 billion in collective consumer costs and prevent about 131 million metric tons of carbon emissions in the next three decades.”

[SEPP Comment: Beyond lightbulbs? Using CO2 emissions to micro-manage energy use?]

The fusion distraction

By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Dec 21, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/the-fusion-distraction?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=513601&post_id=92062890&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

“In its first 2 years the Biden administration, through its anti-fossil fuel policies, has helped cause the worst energy crisis since the 1970s.

“Instead of reversing course it’s using a technical breakthrough in fusion to pretend everything is going great.”

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

The carbon-starved world of the last glacial maximum

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

From the CO2Science Archive:

Problems in the Orthodoxy

China to accelerate approval of new coal projects to ensure energy supply

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2023

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Hit New Record In 2022

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2023

“Anybody with an ounce of common sense would have known this was going to happen. And that emissions will carry on rising while ever developing nations want to grow their economies, or until something better than fossil fuels comes along.

“It shows just how divorced from reality those pushing Net Zero agendas really are.”

Seeking a Common Ground

The yin and yang of climate science

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 29, 2022

“Wicked science is tailored to the dual scientific and political natures of wicked societal problems.   Wicked science uses approaches from complexity science and systems thinking in a context that engages with decision makers and other stakeholders.”

“The internet is a great enabler for the practice of wicked science.”

Unknown, Uncertain or Both?

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 3, 2022

Faith, or more practically, trust in science manifests itself in all sorts of professions

By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times, Dec 27, 2022

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/27/faith-or-more-practically-trust-in-science-manifes/

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Aussie Controlled Forest Burns are now “Cultural Burns”?

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 24, 2022

Measurement Issues — Surface

Urban Night Lighting Observations Demonstrate The Land Surface Temperature Dataset is ‘not fit for purpose’

By Alan Longhurst, Climate Etc. Dec 17, 2022

“One conclusion is unavoidable from this simple exploration of the surface air temperature archive: as used today by the IPCC and the climate change science community the instrumental record is not fit for purpose: it is contaminated by data obtained from that tiny fraction of Earth’s surface where most of us spend our brief span of years indoors.” [Boldface in original]

2022 Was Warmest On Record In Central England

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2023

“There is no evidence in any of the above that 2022 is part of a longer-term pattern of warming in the UK.”

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update: 2022 was the 7th Warmest of 44-Year Satellite Record

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 3, 2023

“The linear warming trend since January, 1979 continues at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”

December 2022: Maps and Graphs, UAH

By Staff, Earth System Science Center, UAH, January 2023

Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/december2022/202212_Map.png

Dec 1978 to Dec 2022 Trend, Lower Troposphere https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/december2022/2022_Trend.png

Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/december2022/202212_Bar.png

Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/december2022/GTR_202212Dec_1.pdf

Changing Weather

The End of the Current California Drought

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 5, 2023

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-end-of-current-california-drought.html

2022 Global Wide Hurricane Season Ends with Weakest Storm Levels of the Last 42 Years

By Larry Hamlin WUWT, Jan 5, 2023

[SEPP Comment: The data collection for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) began in 1980.]

The year without a summer? In 2022 Sydney didn’t even reach 32 degrees (90 F)

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 6, 2023

What is a bomb cyclone?

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 22, 2022

The Beauty of an Explosively Developing Cyclone Offshore

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 3, 2023

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-beauty-of-explosively-developing.html

“As predicted, a midlatitude cyclone is rapidly developing west of our shores, and the satellite imagery is stunning.”

La Niña is happening more often than it should, climate scientists say

By: Nick Bannin, Eric Henrikson, kxan.com, Dec 20, 2022 [H/t Richard Courtney]

https://www.kxan.com/weather-traffic-qas/la-nina-is-happening-more-often-than-it-should-climate-scientists-say/

[SEPP Comment: From freezing Austin, Texas, with a map showing that La Niñas cause drying and warming in Texas, not freezing.]

Nicole, Late-Season Hurricane or Early-Bird Nor’Easter?

By William Balgord, Townhall, Dec 23, 2022

https://townhall.com/columnists/williamdbalgord/2022/12/23/nicole-late-season-hurricane-or-early-bird-noreaster-n2617489

The Great Buffalo Christmas Blizzard Of 2022!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 25, 2022

11-minute video of snowstorm

Claim: Skiing over Christmas holidays no longer guaranteed – even with snow guns

Press Release, University of Basel, Dec 29, 2022

Link to paper: Snowmaking in a warmer climate: an in-depth analysis of future water demands for the ski resort Andermatt-Sedrun-Disentis (Switzerland) in the twenty-first century

By Maria Vorkauf, et al. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2022

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-022-02394-z

Changing Climate

Bering Land Bridge formed surprisingly late during last ice age, study finds

By Staff Writers, Santa Cruz CA (SPX), Dec 27, 2022

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Bering_Land_Bridge_formed_surprisingly_late_during_last_ice_age_study_finds_999.html

Link to paper: The Bering Strait was flooded 10,000 years before the Last Glacial Maximum

By Jesse R. Farmer, et al, PNAS, Dec 27, 2022

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206742119

Increasing forest cover in the Eifel region 11,000 years ago resulted in the local loss of megafauna

By Staff Writers, Mainz, Germany (SPX) Dec 22, 2022

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Increasing_forest_cover_in_the_Eifel_region_11000_years_ago_resulted_in_the_local_loss_of_megafauna_999.html

Link to paper: Thresholds for the presence of glacial megafauna in central Europe during the last 60,000 years

By Frank Sirocko, et al., Nature Science Reports, Nov 21, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-22464-x

“Some of these dates were associated with clear human presence, which indicates that megafauna was not overkilled by humans. In contrast, human presence could quite likely have been stimulated by the abundant food supply. Megafauna presence decreased significantly when tree abundance increased during interstadials. The Megafauna disappeared finally at 11,400 yr b2k with the development of the early Holocene forest cover, which appears to be the most important threshold for megafauna presence.”

Changing Seas

Science Catches Up With WUWT

By Willis Eschenbach WUWT, Dec 29, 2022

Link to paper: A revised acceleration rate from the altimetry-derived global mean sea level record

By Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Riccardo Riva & Remko Scharroo, Nature, Scientific Reports, July 29, 2019

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47340-z

From the abstract: “Calibration of TOPEX is crucial to obtain a continuous and consistent record, which is needed to quantify any recent acceleration. We propose a novel approach to calibrate TOPEX altimeter data using sea surface height differences at crossovers of TOPEX and ERS. Tide gauges are only used to determine a drift in one of the two datasets. We provide a new and more accurate estimate of the intra-mission bias, which leads to a much reduced GMSL acceleration over the whole record.”

From the article: “’ Therefore, we suggest to calibrate the TOPEX GMSL record with the crossover of ERS1&2 after the removal of cal-1. The calibration reduces the observed acceleration in GMSL, so that it becomes statistically equivalent to zero at the 95%-confidence level.’”

[SEPP Comment: Many others including Willie Soon have recognized that there was no standardization of different datasets purporting to measure the same thing.]

The Lost Towns Of Yorkshire

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2023

“According to researcher Brian Williams, the coastline has retreated by about two to three miles since Roman times, which equates to about 1.5m a year.”

Complaint To BBC Over Happisburgh Report

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2023

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Inuit in Arctic Canada now observing higher numbers of polar bears, says government report

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 4, 2023

“Polar bear specialists insist that more encounters with bears in recent years are due to a decline in sea-ice duration and extent compared to the 1980s plus more attractants like garbage dumps near Arctic communities (e.g. Smith et al. 2022; Wilder et al. 2017).”

[SEPP Comment: The new twist on the old European colonial culture, blame the natives?]

Scientists: Antarctica Has Not Warmed For Over 70 Years

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 5, 2023

Link to one study: Trends and space–time patterns of near-surface temperatures on Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctica

By Cinthya Bello, Royal Meteorological Society, Apr 16, 2022

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.7661

Link to second 2022 study: Reliability of Antarctic air temperature changes from Polar WRF: A comparison with observations and MAR outputs

By Yulun Zhang, et al. Atmospheric Research, March 2022

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809521005238

Lowering Standards

You Must Assume That All Information Put Out By Our Government Is Corrupt

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 21, 2022

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-12-21-you-must-assume-that-all-information-put-out-by-our-government-is-corrupt

Sorry About Those Jobs

By John Hinderaker, PowerLine, Dec 20, 2022

The rise and fall of peer review

Why the greatest scientific experiment in history failed, and why that’s a great thing

By Adam Mastroianni, His Blog, Dec 13, 2022 [H/t WUWT]

https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-peer-review

W. Hudson Bay polar bear population decline stories are unethical and ignore critical caveats

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 28, 2022

Video: How climate change is intensifying the winter storms slamming California

Press Release by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Jan 6, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-video-climate-winter-storms-slamming.html

UK Weather Extremes Always Were The Norm, National Trust!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2022]

“The whole purpose of the National Trust is to preserve the nation’s heritage.

“So perhaps instead of spreading fake news about climate change, they should instead study a bit of history. For instance, what was going on in 1895, the year they were founded:”

[SEPP Comment: Can’t trust the National Trust?]

US ignored own scientists’ warning in backing Atlantic wind farm

By Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg News, Dec 30, 2022

https://phys.org/news/2022-12-scientists-atlantic-farm.html

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

BBC’s Fake Worst Drought In China Claim

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2022

[SEPP Comment: BBC demonstrating an ignorance of history!]

Sky’s Extreme Weather Lies

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2023

“All of this rubbish begs the question of who is actually directing this torrent of Goebbels-like propaganda? It is not only the BBC and Sky who continually propagate these lies; it is pretty much the whole of the media here and in the western world as a whole.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Media report India’s weather to fit doomsday narrative

By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Dec 29, 2022

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/12/media_report_indias_weather_to_fit_doomsday_narrative.html

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Top Ten 2022 Media Climate Stories – Fact Check

By Staff, WUWT, Dec 28, 2022

Green Energy Math

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 5, 2023

Mail’s Fake Bailout Claims Debunked

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2023

“This really is a grossly dishonest, scurrillous and factually inaccurate piece:”

Wrong, Climate Home News, Climate Change Is Not Hurting India’s Sugar Crops

By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Dec 21, 2022 [H/t WUWT]

Lord Deben Repeats Pakistan Floods Lie–BBC Fail To Challenge

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2023

“Ironically the BBC itself admitted their earlier reports were false, after their radio programme More or Less investigated the matter here. They came to similar conclusions, with an estimate of 10%.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

Extinction Rebellion “Quits” Uncivil Disobedience (Parliament insurrection next?)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 5, 2023

“Ed. note: This is Part III of a three-part series on eco-terrorism heading into the new year. Part I reported on Bloomberg Green’s interview with eco-terrorist Andreas Malm. Part II reviewed Just Stop Oil’s plan for increased eco-incivility in 2023.”

“The ONLY thing that makes Civil Disobedience a somehow noble thing is that the people who do it ACCEPT the consequences of breaking the laws.”

Expanding the Orthodoxy

No sacrifice is too large

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

‘Saving the Dark’ (Light pollution fanaticism)

By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Dec 21, 2022

Green extremists are reinventing feudalism by banning travel

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2023

New Zealand Carbon Farming

By Tony Orman, WUWT, Dec 24, 2022

Questioning European Green

Italy Plans An Energy U-Turn, A Comeback To Nuclear Power As Green Energies “Far From Sufficient”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 30, 2022

Home Insulation Makes Little Difference To Energy Consumption–New Study

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2023

“But as energy efficiency improves, along with the cost of things we buy, we have more money to spend in other ways. In terms of energy, most people, I suspect, would use better insulation to enjoy warmer homes, not reduce bills.

“Equally they will tend to buy conservatories etc, which will increase energy consumption. And, yes, people will open windows to let fresh air in – we have our bedroom windows open at night even in mid-winter.(No doubt the Guardian would be horrified!)]

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Our Killer Green Energy Infatuation

The obsession with wind turbines puts millions at risk of freezing to death in their homes.

By Vijay Jayaraj, American Greatness, Dec 29, 2022

“In the Volunteer State, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced rolling blackouts to manage a shortage in power generation. The announcement, which was a first in its 89-year history, was a U-turn from TVA’s 2021 statement that “rolling blackouts would be unlikely.” Blackouts left more than 50,000 customers without power in freezing conditions!”

Non-Green Jobs

Axing Keystone XL pipeline cost thousands of jobs, billions of dollars, Energy Department says

By Ramsey Touchberry The Washington Times, Jan 6, 2022

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jan/6/biden-axing-keystone-xl-pipeline-cost-thousands-jo/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=evening&utm_term=evening&utm_content=evening&bt_ee=AbuUaIu7e9wt3oJGESihaeDN4pm0KG2sCGvsS0bVKOo%3D&bt_ts=1673047828302

Transitioning away from coal leaves Navajo communities struggling

By Alice Fordham, NPR, Dec 29, 2022

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/29/1145952413/transitioning-away-from-coal-leaves-navajo-communities-struggling

“A rapid response team was set up – part of a nationwide effort to help coal-dependent communities. The National Laboratory at nearby Los Alamos is leading it, but they say actually economic transition isn’t rapid.”

[SEPP Comment: Think of all the green jobs from mining lithium and cobalt, elsewhere.]

Funding Issues

2022: The Year ESG Fell to Earth

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Dec 27, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/12/27/2022_the_year_esg_fell_to_earth_872040.html

“Rather than “doing well by doing good,” the logic of Keeley’s case, as I reviewed for RealClear Books, is that investors in conventional ESG investment products are likely to end up not doing very well and leave investors feeling good, not doing good.”

Can’t even give it away

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

“The fate of western economies is in the hands of politicians skilled at promising a veritable New Jerusalem of environmentally pristine high-tech employment. But amazingly, they can’t even throw money out the window, the one skill that they are fabled for possessing even as virtually all else that they touch wilts on contact.”

The Political Games Continue

2022 Revealed in Climate Litigation: Failures, Duds

By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Dec 29, 2022

https://eidclimate.org/what-2022-revealed-in-climate-litigation-coordination-failures-and-duds/

Litigation Issues

Municipalities of Puerto Rico v. Exxon Mobil, Part 1

By Russel Cook, Via WUWT, Dec 24, 2022

Puerto Rico Greens Launch a RICO Lawsuit Against Big Oil

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 21, 2022

“In 1982, Exxon produced an internal summary document of other people’s research. Since the document became public knowledge, climate activists have held up the internal memo as evidence they “concealed” their knowledge of climate change.

“But the document contains rather large caveats, and like I said, was based on public domain research.”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

“… Government grants and loans and high diesel prices help make hydrogen competitive …”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 27, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Will the need for subsidies ever stop?]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA And The Electricity Cost Crisis

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 3, 2022

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-1-3-epa-and-the-electricity-cost-crisis

[SEPP Comment: According to the EPA, the costs of Germany’s energy transition to no fossil fuels has no bearing on the EPA’s insistence that carbon dioxide is a pollutant?]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Energy Use 2020 to 2021

By Andy May, WUWT, Jan 5, 2023

Column: ‘Attention poor people, step away from the fuel. It’s not for you. And stop using it anyway. Thank you”

By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Dec 12, 2022 [H/t WUWT]

EU Approves a €28 Billion German Renewable Energy Scheme

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 22, 2022

Climate Goals Thwarted As German Energy Consumption Data For 2022 Shows A Return To Coal!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 6, 2023

Nuclear plants face shutdown over tax on windfalls

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2023

“Britain has Become a Poorer Country” – but is STILL Chasing NET ZERO

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 31, 2022

Energy Issues – Australia

NSW Government Seizes Control of Coal Markets

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 21, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Expanding authoritarian powers!]

Energy Issues — US

US Utilities Impose Blackouts, Issue Warnings Over Deep Freeze Power Grid Strain

By Jack Phillips, Epoch Times, Dec 25, 2022 [H/t Gordon Fuchs]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/us-utilities-impose-blackouts-issue-warnings-over-deep-freeze-power-grid-strain_4944618.html?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-12-25-1&src_cmp=breaking-2022-12-25-1&utm_medium=email&est=Lvo%2Fyr54PUD8lq03abRtCcbWJ%2BGoxo0mNjdb5qHUp9xBCfDrxsyG%2Fi9Ng7xFv9tnYL%2FR

Duke Energy Apologizes for Winter Storm Renewable Energy Failure, Rolling Blackouts

By Theresa Opeka, WUWT, Jan 6, 2023

“Duke Energy’s ‘nuclear fleet’ was reliable, but solar generation was unable to meet peak demand because it occurred before sunrise.

“’The power that we purchased did not show up, therefore, we were confronted with the hard truth that our energy demand would soon be eclipsed by our capacity,’ stated [Duke Energy’s NC president] Bowman.

New York Climate Act Scoping Plan Approved

By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Dec 24, 2022

“The Climate Act establishes a “Net Zero” target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. The Climate Action Council is responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that will outline how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.”  In brief, that plan is to electrify everything possible and power the electric grid with zero-emissions generating resources by 2040.”

[SEPP Comment: Hope to get the electricity needed by damming rivers in northern Canada and from the solar center in Buffalo?]

On To The Great Future Of Offshore Wind Power

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 19, 2022

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-12-19-on-to-the-great-future-of-offshore-wind-power

Washington’s Control of Energy

Cover Me, Part 4 – EPA Proposal Brings Third Parties Into Fight Against Methane ‘Super-Emitters’

By Jason Lindquist, RBN Energy, Dec 28, 2022

https://rbnenergy.com/cover-me-part-4-epa-supplemental-proposal-on-methane-takes-aim-at-super-emitters

Alaska offshore oil lease sale nets just one bid after being revived by Inflation Reduction Act

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 30, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Not the North Slope, Cook Inlet in southern Alaska coast.]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

World Oil’s Top Stories of 2022: 1-5

By World Oil Staff, World Oil, Dec 26, 2022

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/12/26/world-oil-s-top-stories-of-2022-1-5/

Green EU: The Massive Gas Field Nobody will Touch

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 6, 2022

Return of King Coal?

Global coal use hits all-time high: report

By Jared Gans, The Hill, Dec 17, 2022

Link to report: Coal 2022: Analysis and forecast to 2025

By Staff, EIA, 2022

“Global coal demand is set to rise in 2022 amid the upheaval of the energy crisis”

“Coal used in electricity generation, the largest consuming sector, is expected to grow by just over 2% in 2022. By contrast, coal consumption in industry is expected to decline by over 1%, mainly driven by falling iron and steel production amid the economic crisis.

“In August, coal power generation in China increased by around 15% year-on-year to over 500 terawatt-hours (TWh). This monthly level of generation is higher than the total annual coal power generation of any other country, except India and the United States.”

“Strong growth in renewables will supply lion’s share of additional power demand, with coal and

gas filling the remaining modest gap”

20 Countries with the Biggest Coal Reserves

By Ramish Cheema, Yahoo Finance, Dec 29, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/20-countries-biggest-coal-reserves-223229878.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVhbGNsZWFyZW5lcmd5Lm9yZy8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL5-lezntzgDQ3Xd0726L0ZUt52nt4FGrblP0Y2o2L_3bb44jcE9hMUf1y_JNttA7NKDrP0mG769uajEnfFUpxuadJoZI10fGE65a-7W5iWNenePTqPL6Z_A0iW59-mDjHuRNecPzmhAoOeVGjSkdABMyVgldKru13s7OMQww7OU

“5. Republic of India, Coal Reserves as of 2021:  million short tonnes; 4. People’s Republic of China, Coal Reserves as of 2021: 157,487 million short tonnes; 3. The Commonwealth of Australia, Coal Reserves as of 2021: 165,596 million short tonnes; 2. Russian Federation, Coal Reserves as of 2021: 178,757 million short tonnes; 1. United States of America, Coal Reserves as of 2021: 251,539 million short tonnes”

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Fusion Confusion

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 28. 2022

Putting the fusion in confusion

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 21, 2022

DOE Offers $33 Million to Fund a Credible AI Fusion Proposal

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 25, 2022

“The DOE SC program in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) hereby announces its interest in applications in the areas of Machine Learning (ML), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Data Resources for fusion energy and plasma sciences.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Space Based Solar Power: Like Terrestrial Solar, but More Expensive

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 20, 2022

Solar Power In Spain

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2023

“Just to add my twopenn’orth, here is the actual solar power generated in Spain yesterday:”

[SEPP Comment: Just in time for siesta.]

Raw Material Bottlenecks For A Net Zero Future

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2023

“I covered the work of Simon Michaux a few months ago. This latest video gives a good overview:”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Don’t It Make My Gray Methanol Blue? – Blue Hydrogen, Blue Ammonia, And Now Blue Methanol

By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, Dec 22, 2022

https://rbnenergy.com/dont-it-make-my-grey-methanol-blue-blue-hydrogen-blue-ammonia-and-now-blue-methanol

“It’s too soon to predict how big a role blue hydrogen, blue ammonia and blue methanol might play in the energy markets of the late 2020s and ’30s. What is clear, however, is that through generous tax credits and other means the U.S. government is now providing the financial incentives to help prod super-low-carbon alternatives into the mainstream.”

[SEPP Comment: All part of the ill-conceived, ill-named Inflation Reduction Act, a classic of teenage thinking dominating Washington. All underwritten by corruption of the tax code, making methanol, a necessary but toxic chemical, “blue” by carbon capture and sequestering (CCS)? Is it less toxic?]

Hitachi Energy Will Modernize HVDC System, Boost Delivery of Canadian Hydropower to U.S.

By Sonal Patel, Power, Dec 15, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Damming rivers in Canada so NYC can be Net Zero in electric power?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Astronomical battery cost looms over “renewables”

By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 15, 2022

https://www.cfact.org/2022/12/15/astronomical-battery-cost-looms-over-renewables/

“Based on his work, which only covered 48 states, our round working estimate of the required storage for the whole country is an amazing 250 million MWh. America today has less than 20 thousand MWh of grid scale battery storage, which is next to nothing.

“Grid scale batteries today cost around $700,000 a MWh. For 250 million MWh we get an astronomical total cost of $175 trillion dollars just to replace today’s fossil fuel generated electricity needs with wind and solar.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

How Did EVs Handle America’s Arctic Blast?

By Ross Pomeroy, Real Clear Science, Dec 29, 2022

https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2022/12/29/how_did_evs_handle_americas_arctic_blast_872663.html

“While a typical ICE vehicle might have its range reduced by 15% to 25% in below-freezing temperatures, an EV’s range will be slashed 20% to 50% depending upon driving speed, temperature, and interior climate preferences.”

New USPS vehicles to be all electric by 2026

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 20, 2022

“In the Tuesday announcement, meanwhile, the service attributed the upgrade in part to $3 billion in funding from the Inflation Reduction Act.”

New York sees failure in plan to convert garbage trucks to electric

Those tested can’t operate for more than 4 hours without a recharge

By Bob Unruh, WND, Dec 29, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

Environmental Industry

Climate Change Is Threat To Womxn – Greenpeace

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2023

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

7 unexpected side-effects of climate change

By Ian Shine, World Economic Forum, Dec 23, 2022

[SEPP Comment: The World Economic Forum is worried about sex-changing lizards, shrinking goats and the worsening quality of wine?]

Academics Pursue Project to ‘Decolonize Physics’

By Marc Morano, Via WUWT, Dec 22, 2022

Australia’s Voracious Termites Are Now “Driven by Climate Change”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 1, 2023

[SEPP Comment: The methane they produce must be staggering!]

Aussie Scientists Freezing Coral to Protect them From Climate Change

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 19, 2022

Convicted Climate Activist: “we need … a different form of democracy”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 2, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Where my views dominate?]

Melbourne Felling Trees to Improve Access for “Green” Postal Deliveries

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 19, 2022

Paul Ehrlich Claims Vindication for his Climate Catastrophe Prediction

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 3, 2022

ARTICLES

A Quiet Refutation of ‘Net Zero’ Carbon Emissions

Two energy reports show the U.S. is burdening and dismantling its grid to achieve an impossible goal.

By Steve Milloy, WSJ, Dec. 28, 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-quiet-refutation-of-net-zero-climate-change-emissions-energy-global-warming-sec-goals-clean-power-11672262963?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s

Link to: Net-Zero 2050: U.S. Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization Scenario Analysis

By Staff, LCRI, Low-Carbon Resources Initiative, Electric Power Research Institute, 2022

https://lcri-netzero.epri.com/

Link to: 2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

By Staff, NERC, North American Electric Reliability Corp., December 2022

TWTW Summary: Malloy writes:

“‘Net zero by 2050’ is more than a slogan of climate activism. It has become a chief organizational principle for multinational corporations and the BlackRock-led cartel pushing environmental, social and corporate governance investing.

“‘Net zero’ was mentioned in more than 6,000 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2022 and countless other times by publicly traded corporations and investor groups in statements and on their websites. The SEC says its proposed climate disclosure rule will help investors ‘evaluate the progress in meeting net-zero commitments and assessing any associated risks.’

“‘Net zero’ and its corollary, the ‘energy transition,’ are talked about so often and so loosely that many take them for granted as worthy goals that could be accomplished with greater buy-in from political and business leaders. But two new reports from the utility industry should put an end to such loose talk.”

Malloy brings up the Electric Power Research Institute report, linked above and writes:

“In other words, no amount of wind turbines, solar panels, hydropower, nuclear power, battery power, electrification of fossil-fuel technologies or energy-efficiency technologies will get us to net zero by 2050.

“Even to achieve ‘deep decarbonization’—which isn’t net zero—by 2050, EPRI says, ‘a broad portfolio of options that includes low-carbon fuels and carbon removal technologies will be required.’

“But ‘low-carbon fuels’—efficient biofuels—don’t exist. ‘Carbon removal technologies’ aren’t possible to scale up, and if they were, it would cost about $1 quadrillion—a million billion dollars—at today’s prices to remove the 1.6 trillion tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide that U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said needs to be sucked ‘out of the atmosphere even after we get to net zero.’

“There’s more. The EPRI report states: ‘This study does not include a detailed assessment of factors such as supply chain constraints [and] operational reliability and resiliency’ of a net-zero electricity grid.

“How a net-zero grid could be built and function would be an issue worth studying if it were possible in the first place. But it simply isn’t.

“So, barring some unforeseen miracle technology, ‘net zero by 2050’ won’t happen.

“The curious thing about the report is that it has largely remained an EPRI secret. There has been no media coverage of it. I found out about it only after I filed a shareholder proposal about net zero with the electric utility Alliant Energy. The company offered the report as a defense against my proposal that management explain how it planned to reach its goal of net zero by 2050.”

Malloy brings up the North American Electric Reliability Corp report linked above and concludes:

“So, there you have it: We are dangerously dismantling our electric grid while burdening it with more demand in hope of attaining the goal of ‘net zero by 2050,’ which the utility industry has admitted is a fantasy.

“Congress should hold hearings on ‘net zero by 2050’ goals before real disaster happens. It should bring in witnesses from utilities, public-service commissions, grid operators, regulators and the ESG cartel and have them explain under oath how they plan to accomplish the impossible.”

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2. Will Climate Change Really Put New York Underwater?

NOAA says the city’s sea level will rise a foot by 2050, but there are too many variables to know.

By Steven E. Koonin, WSJ, Jan. 4, 2023

https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-climate-change-really-put-new-york-underwater-nasa-noaa-salinity-global-temperature-average-11672829529?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s

TWTW Summary: Professor Koonin writes:

“A recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests that such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt.

“The record of sea level measured at the southern tip of Manhattan, known as the Battery, begins in 1856. It shows that today’s waters are 19 inches higher than they were 166 years ago, rising an average of 3.5 inches every 30 years. The geologic record shows that this rise began some 20,000 years ago as the last great glaciers melted, causing the New York coastline to move inland more than 50 miles.

“There is no question that sea level at the Battery will continue to rise in coming decades, if only because the land has been steadily sinking about 2 inches every 30 years because of factors including tectonic motion, rebound from the mass of the glaciers, and local subsidence. Rather, the question is whether growing human influences on the climate will cause sea level to rise more rapidly. To judge that, we can compare recent rates of rise with those in the past, when human influences were much smaller.

“The nearby chart [not presented here] shows how much sea level rose during the 30 years prior to each year since 1920. That [30 year] rise has varied between 1.5 and 6 inches. The 5-inch rise over the most recent 30 years is higher than the century long average but isn’t unprecedented and shows no sign of increasing.

“As the Earth warms, changes in sea level at the Battery will depend in part on global changes. These include the loss of ice from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica as well as the ocean’s expansion as it warms. It’s very difficult to predict these changes—many factors influence ice loss, and the oceans absorb only 0.25% of the heat flowing through the Earth’s climate system. The 30-year rises in the latter half of the 20th century were diminished by about an inch due to the filling of reservoirs behind dams and changes in groundwater around the world.

“The Battery’s sea level also depends on local changes in the sea and the sinking of the land. Most important is the natural variability of winds, currents such as the Gulf Stream, salinity and temperatures of the North Atlantic, which cause variations in sea level along the entire U.S. Northeast coast. Because of these many variables, climate models can’t account for the ups and downs so evident in the graph.

“Despite this, the recent NASA report echoes a February National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report predicting more than 1 foot of rise at the Battery by 2050. Such a rise during the coming 30 years would be more than double the rise over the past 30 years and more than triple the past century’s average. Even more remarkably, the NOAA report says this rise will happen regardless of future greenhouse-gas emissions. There is no way of knowing if this prediction is correct.

“So, while New Yorkers should watch the waters around them, there is no need to dash to higher ground. The Battery’s sea level hasn’t done anything in recent decades that it hasn’t done over the past century. And although we’ll have to wait three decades to test the predicted 1-foot rise, measurements over the next decade should tell us how quickly we’ll need to raise the seawalls.”

********************

3. The Year in Exaggeration

Correcting the record on democracy’s death, nasty railroads, killer hurricanes, etc.

By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Jan. 3, 2023

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-year-in-exaggeration-media-bias-hysteria-election-voters-railroads-2022-fbi-investigation-democracy-11672783427

Link to report: Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene

By Oliver E. J. Wing, et al. Nature Climate Change, Jan 31, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01265-6

TWTW Summary: For TWTW, the key part of the article is:

“Mr. Wing’s own recently published study indicates that expected increases in U.S. flooding losses in the next 30 years will be primarily due to increased development, not climate change.

“The year that ended saw the expressions ‘existential’ and ‘climate crisis’ become conjoined twins in the press. Yet a reader searched in vain for any mention that a long-awaited report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reduced its estimated path of future emissions and also judged the climate to be less prone to worst-case warming than previously thought.”

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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 3:47 am

This is what the polar vortex blockage over the Bering Sea in the middle stratosphere at 10 hPa looks like now.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 3:54 am

In the lower stratosphere, the polar vortex has split into two branches, with the southern branch pulling the northern lows to California.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 3:59 am

The current graphic shows the accumulation of ozone over the Bering Sea, which causes the polar vortex to split in the lower stratosphere. It can be clearly seen that it is an obstacle to the polar vortex.
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DMacKenzie
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 7:03 am

Wouldn’t it be more likely that ozone over the Bering sea is an effect of some other phenomenon, rather than a cause of hindering the polar vortex ?

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  DMacKenzie
January 9, 2023 9:57 am

No, it’s the ozone that causes the failure, because the temperature of the ozone patch is higher than the air with little ozone. The question is different: what causes such a strong accumulation of ozone over the Bering Sea, which has been going on since autumn?
This excess ozone is all over the column until the tropopause, which is the direct cause of the current circulation over the North Pacific and precipitation in California.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 4:04 am

The animation below shows how circulation in the lower stratosphere translates into circulation in the troposphere. Of course, it is not typical of La Niña.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 9, 2023 4:06 am

Let’s look at the current low over California.
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Last edited 29 days ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
strativarius
January 9, 2023 5:03 am

Poor old Albo Einstein. He’s currently [via a lookalike] being used in an ad campaign for smart meters and the tag line is making us less reliant on gas imports by using British Wind and Solar.

Yes, it seems we can forget all about our own gas reserves entirely…

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  strativarius
January 9, 2023 5:22 am

The poor guy is also being used to sell wireless plans on this side of the pond.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  strativarius
January 9, 2023 10:27 am

I would be interested in an explanation of just how, if I change to a “smart” meter, I would be helping Britain to use more wind and solar on those days when they sadly under perform. For example, on 3 consecutive days a week or so before Christmas 2022 wind provided at best, 2.5% of demand. Was that because not enough of us have “smart” meters?

I also find this ad questionable. I am pretty sure that if the wind is strong enough to support old Albert leaning at an angle of about 45º, (surely a wind of over 60 mph by my guess) the turbine blades would be past the point where they are feathered to stop over rotation and they would not be rotating at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZvo44g5ht8

Are there any windmill engineers out there that can confirm?

Redge
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
January 9, 2023 10:37 am

You could try the ASA

You won’t get anywhere though. I complained about Octopus claiming they were 100% renewable on their website. The ASA didn’t even bother to respond

https://www.asa.org.uk/

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Redge
January 9, 2023 10:56 am

Been there, done that. I complained about the claim by the people that produce Quorn that eating their product would help save the planet. They did reply, saying that the ad had been checked and approved by the Carbon Trust so my complaint was not upheld.

Redge
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
January 9, 2023 10:58 am

at least you got a repsonse

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
January 9, 2023 10:08 pm

‘I would be interested in an explanation of just how, if I change to a “smart” meter, I would be helping Britain to use more wind and solar on those days when they sadly under perform.’

You wouldn’t be ‘helping Britain to use more wind and solar’, you would be helping your utility to reduce its natural gas imports by allowing them to remotely shut off your electric appliances when these renewables aren’t performing.

Last edited 28 days ago by Frank from NoVA
Drake
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
January 10, 2023 8:57 am

Funny thing is that in the US you get the smart meter even if you don’t want it. The only way to stop it is to fence your property to limit access. Without a smart meter in LV NV, you would need to read your meter and send in your usage since ALL meter readings are through vifi via smart meters now. They just drive a vehicle into close proximity and get the readings.

Kevin Kilty
January 9, 2023 6:33 am

I have been involved in issues surrounding a “climate crisis” since the late 1970s while I was in graduate school and I developed two firm beliefs; 1) there really is no crisis, and 2) people most ignorant about any topic related to “climate change” and the coming incompenet redesign of the energy system (grid/fossil fuels etc) won’t listen to anything I say to them.

Now, being 100% on the side of the folks here at WUWT and at SEPP, I have to say we do ourselves no service by engaging in our own myths. One of those myths is that a small decrease in outgoing LWIR radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) cannot supply the surface emitted power demanded by the Stefan-Boltzmann law. Here is the Horad Hayden version of this as summarized above

A major problem with the models is that they ignore the increase radiation emitted by a warming surface of the earth. As Howard Hayden has written, the Stefan-Boltzmann law must always be applied to model-generated surface temperatures. The radiative forcing caused by increased CO2 and other GHGs is always incapable of retaining the increased surface emission from putative warming.

Any number of commenters here have told me that Hayden is not saying what this summary clearly does claim he says. It takes no effort at all to show that a small decrease of 3.7 Watts/m^2 at TOA will warm the surface sufficiently to possibly support a significantly larger emitted power at the surface because the near surface atmosphere is warm and is also where most of the greenhouse effect is generated because of the water vapor there. Use MODTRAN to show this. Conclusion: You can’t use SB without considering transport through the IR active atmosphere.

We cannot continue to claim that our side of this debate possesses the better understanding of radiation transport when we make and promote misunderstandings of this issue.

strativarius
Reply to  Kevin Kilty
January 9, 2023 6:44 am

“I have been involved in issues surrounding a “climate crisis” since the late 1970s 

I have lived through the variations of climate since the late 1950s.

That’s why they want people like me and my older siblings dead. Indoctrination of the young on its own is not enough.

“Climate change deniers, by way of example, are older. It’s generational,” Nye told the Los Angeles Times. Nye said that he is calling them out with “due respect,” acknowledging that he is “now one of them.”

“We’re just going to have to wait for those people to ‘age out,’ as they say,” Nye went on, adding that “age out” is a euphemism for “die.” “But it’ll happen, I guarantee you — that’ll happen.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bill-nye-older-people-need-to-die-out-before-climate-science-can-advance

Truly, Bill Nye is the Lord Haw Haw of the post-modern scientific era.

Last edited 29 days ago by strativarius
Drake
Reply to  strativarius
January 10, 2023 9:02 am

Yep, if the old timers are all dead, there will be no one left to say “I told you so” when CAGW does not reach a “tipping point” and unreliable electrical generation collapses the grid.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Kevin Kilty
January 9, 2023 7:14 am

Even technically inclined people don’t seem to understand radiative heat transfer very well…and get caught up in “back radiation breaking the first law of thermodynamics” and such nonsense. All one can do is make a corrective comment and hope that a few dozen WUWT readers come away enlightened. Here’s a response I made to a WUWT comment a couple of days ago, as an example
Transfer rate is proportional to Thot^4 minus Tcold^4standing next to a block of -5 C ice will cause you to lose heat at a lower rate than standing next to the same “block of outer space” at -270C. Check with equation in 1.Deserts are hot because the dry air and no clouds lets more sunlight through during the day. They also get cold at night because the dry air lets more IR go to outer space.Phoenix and Atlanta. This depends on whether prevailing winds bring dry air or moist air. Winds are “advection” and they can bring hundreds of watts of heat or cold compared to the puny 50 watts or so of net infrared.Your concept of back-radiation is convoluted. Not your fault. Physics textbooks aren’t great at explaining it. There can’t be back radiation without “fore-radiation”. Planet Earth-wise there isn’t 330 watts of back-radiation without the 390 watts of fore-radiation. Heat only flows from hot to cold. If your sky is emitting 330 watts/sq. m. toward the ground and the ground below it is at 3C, then the ground is also emitting 330 watt/sq.m upward and the net heat transfer by radiation is 330 – 330 or ZERO…well OK, for a few minutes until sunlight warms the ground….on average the planetary IR net upwards is 50 or 60 watts depending on which global energy budget diagram you read.Muddy water cleared for you…or not ?

Last edited 29 days ago by DMacKenzie
Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Kevin Kilty
January 9, 2023 9:33 pm

Hi Kevin,

I think Hayden’s take is that the IPCC considers the GHE to be solely a LW phenomenon, such that GHE = LW_surface – LW_TOA, where LW_TOA also happens to be equal to SW_absorbed (surface and atmosphere) at ‘equilibrium’, or S/4*(1-albedo). Granted, we know that there are a lot of other transport effects going on between the surface and TOA, but for the IPCC to be ‘right’, they need to explain how their incremental GHG-related LW forcings tie out to changes in surface LW emissions (based on applying S-B to the IPCC’s predicted change in surface temperature) and/or to changes in the Earth’s albedo. If they can’t do this, or if it’s not clear that their models accomplish this, then they need to back off on their predictions for surface temperature, possibly by re-parameterizing their models to better consider, as you say, ‘transport through the IR active atmosphere’.

In any event, Hayden will be presenting at Heartland’s February conference, so maybe he’ll provide us with more details into his critique of the IPCC’s methodology then.

Kind regards,

Frank

Last edited 28 days ago by Frank from NoVA
DMacKenzie
January 9, 2023 6:57 am

Ken Haapala,
John Robson’s rather good CDN site article repostings end up looking like crapola on my IOS. I get his news letter with no problem. Your copy and paste needs fixin’ somehow….

Last edited 29 days ago by DMacKenzie
Ireneusz Palmowski
January 10, 2023 3:58 am

Another wave of heavy rainfall in California. There will be more to come.
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Thunderstorms are starting in California.

Last edited 28 days ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Ireneusz Palmowski
January 10, 2023 8:42 am

In three days, another Arctic cyclone will reach California.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
January 11, 2023 1:48 am

Precipitation in California on January 14 may be very heavy, due to the overlap of lows in the upper and lower troposphere (there may be very strong winds from the Pacific). A cold front in the upper troposphere will condense water vapor over the ocean.
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