Paul Ehrlich Claims Vindication for his Climate Catastrophe Prediction

Essay by Eric Worrall

h/t tony_g – “The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

The full interview is available here.

Serial doomsday prophet Paul Ehrlich admits he got it wrong on mass starvation, the green revolution (agricultural) boosted yields and fed the world. But this hasn’t discouraged Ehrlich from making more predictions of mass doom – he claims his 1968 climate catastrophe predictions are still on track.

What can I say – I think it is nice for old people to have a hobby, keeps them active.

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strativarius
January 3, 2023 2:04 am

Attempt #1

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.” —Dr. Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968

Try again…

“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people…If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” —Dr. Paul Ehrlich, speech at the British Institute for Biology, Sep. 1971

Last edited 26 days ago by strativarius
spetzer86
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 3:57 am

Given the shifting demographics in most UK cities, you could almost say he was close on that last one.

strativarius
Reply to  spetzer86
January 3, 2023 4:14 am

What we scientists call an Ehrlichian fluke.

I don’t believe he’s read Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi. The EU and Western elites certainly have

commieBob
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 5:19 am

I can see why the elites would like Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi because he seemed to think the aristocracy was a good thing. I don’t see why it’s a knock on Ehrlich that he apparently hasn’t read him.

strativarius
Reply to  commieBob
January 3, 2023 6:00 am

The new aristocracy – A list celebrities – love a monarchy….

Drake
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 9:54 am

Actually I think it is the billionaires, who LOVE their oligarchy, especially in the US.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  spetzer86
January 3, 2023 8:39 am

But not because of the underlying reasoning of his stupid predictions.

3x2
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
January 3, 2023 9:22 am

What you do is predict eg financial problems at every opportunity and eventually you will be right.

Ehrlich is one of those that bets on every Horse in every race then claims that he has a 100% track record when it comes to picking winners.

One difference with Ehrlich is that if he were to bet on every Horse in a race, none of them would make the finish line!

MarkW
Reply to  3x2
January 3, 2023 1:18 pm

I wish I could remember who first said it, but many years ago some wag referred to the Council of Economic Advisers as having successfully predicted 5 of the last 3 recessions.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  MarkW
January 3, 2023 1:35 pm

I think it was Will Rodgers who said: “If you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end, they’d point in different directions.”

MarkW
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
January 3, 2023 7:34 pm

I think it was Truman who asked for a one armed economist.
So he couldn’t say “on the other hand”.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
January 3, 2023 2:25 pm

His stupid predictions are under repair at the WEF and at the hands of idiot heads of state in the West. Like failed consensus climate science, woke data fiddlers are prepared to destroy the finest civilization ever created to make doomsters predictions ‘correct’!

Barnes Moore
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 4:46 am

I think I always misinterpreted that quote, meaning I thought the population would shrink to 70 million (since I never bothered to look it up), when in fact the quote actually means that while the population may grow to 70 million, everyone will be starving. Anyway, he may be right, except that the cause of starvation will not be climate change, but climate change policies.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 5:15 am

What a pity he wasn’t a gambler and bet his retirement savings on that prediction. But of course these clowns never bet their own money; they insist on forcing you to bet yours.

Rick C
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
January 3, 2023 8:49 am

He did famously lose a $10,000 bet with economist Julian Simon over the abundance and price of a basket of commodities chosen by Ehrlich.

If he’s right this time it will be due to the dismantling of the fossil fuel infrastructure, not climate change. These loons must be stopped. Ehrlich has about as much credibility as Harold Camping.

Tony_G
Reply to  Rick C
January 3, 2023 9:55 am

I’ve heard that although he lost the bet, he never paid up.

Art
Reply to  Tony_G
January 3, 2023 7:55 pm

The bet was for the difference in value of $1000 worth of stocks over 10 years. If the value went up (driven by scarcity) Simon would pay the difference. If value went down (driven by plenty) Ehrlich would pay the difference.

Ehrlich got to choose which stocks, and joked that it was like taking candy from a baby.

Over 10 years the price dropped by more than 50%. Ehrlich paid Simon $576.07.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 1:13 pm

Well, he did get one part right–the bomb.

Kim Jong Un calls for exponential increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal amid threats from South, US | CNN

But Un is likely more responsible with the nukes than Ehrlich.

B Zipperer
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 4:30 pm

Ehrlich is actually an “anti-Cassandra” – ie, cursed to predict only falsehoods, yet everyone believes him. So the curse is really on those who are believers.
To me he is useful: whatever he predicts, the opposite will happen.

Ben Vorlich
January 3, 2023 2:19 am

It’s listening to the nonsense Ehrlich spouts that got Europe into the mess it’s in in the first place

3x2
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
January 3, 2023 9:37 am

He, and others, remind me of those SciFi plots involving somebody attempting to stop a particular event in History and they turn out to be the proximate cause of said event.

As an example the time travellers figure that they can go back and assassinate Hitler. They succeed and make Heydrich top of the chain. Rather than 50 million dying we all, in 2023, re-swear our allegiance to the Reich …

(Heydrich was, by all accounts, much more committed, far smarter and a lot less lazy than A)

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
January 3, 2023 11:21 am

It’s important that the “end-of-times” hawkers are making relatively logical extreme case scenarios, so that all the rest of us can make sure they DON’T come true.

Ulric Lyons
January 3, 2023 2:54 am

Mass extinctions tend to happen during ice ages, we can’t solve that yet, Over fishing needn’t make a species extinct and we can make solutions.

Drake
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
January 3, 2023 9:59 am

Overfishing and the support of wales, seals, etc.

Has the study been done on how much the great reduction in whale population before FF based lighting (kerosene then electric) helped to provide larger numbers of fish for human consumption?

The clubbing of baby seals for their fur?

Etc.?

Phillip Bratby
January 3, 2023 3:10 am

Has Ehrlich ever made a correct prediction? I think not.

strativarius
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
January 3, 2023 3:24 am

Ehrlich, you could say, has led the way in making a career out of being 100% incorrect – and being applauded for it.

So very many, e.g Sir David King, David ‘wot is snow? Viner, and Peter Wadhams etc etc, have done exactly the same.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 8:44 am

As long as they make the “right” predictions (i.e., those that provide cover for tyranny), they will be applauded, no matter how wildly out of touch with reality they may be.

HotScot
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
January 3, 2023 3:25 am

Perhaps he should predict the date of his own demise. See how that goes.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  HotScot
January 3, 2023 6:40 am

I would suggest a Horvath Epigenetic Clock test kit for that. He can afford it with his publicity earnings.

rah
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
January 3, 2023 9:11 am

I think he and another oxygen thief, Paul Krugman, are competing to see who can be wrong the most times and still maintain their notoriety.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
January 3, 2023 9:16 am

When he said “I do.” in 1954. At least I think he is still married to the same woman.

rovingbroker
January 3, 2023 3:18 am

Ehrlich is bad but worse is CBS for giving him a pulpit to preach from.

BobM
Reply to  rovingbroker
January 3, 2023 1:55 pm

Yeah, isn’t there some CBS policy that says they don’t have to give equal weight to really dumb theories?

rah
January 3, 2023 3:20 am

He ain’t dead yet? Another worthless mouth to feed.

Scissor
Reply to  rah
January 3, 2023 5:26 am

He has the same sanctimonious air as Fauci. Both have condemned untold numbers to suffering and death via the certainty of their unfounded beliefs.

Justice seems to move slowly, if at all, but then one day, he’s dead.

Yirgach
Reply to  Scissor
January 3, 2023 8:34 am

Both he and Fauci have a very bad case of Doofusism.
It may be genetic, still it might be contagious.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  rah
January 3, 2023 8:45 am

Worse than worthless – his stupid blather being accepted as gospel is doing real harm to humanity.

Ed Zuiderwijk
January 3, 2023 3:24 am

The ultimate doomsday prediction (for Ehrlich): all predictions by Ehrlich will turn out to have been wrong.

YallaYPoora Kid
January 3, 2023 3:37 am

“The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

If you consider what is happening to the world’s power generation infrastructure at the moment and the time it will take to rebuild it into a robust and efficient configuration then he is partially correct.

quelgeek
Reply to  YallaYPoora Kid
January 3, 2023 4:15 am

Getting an answer that looks correct the wrong way is still wrong.

mohatdebos
Reply to  YallaYPoora Kid
January 3, 2023 7:35 am

The West is not the world. The world will be fine as long as China and India ignore the climate change scam.

quelgeek
Reply to  mohatdebos
January 3, 2023 8:30 am

Good point. The World’s PIN is 1114

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  mohatdebos
January 3, 2023 8:51 am

Only assuming you want to live in, and under the conditions in, China and India.

Those under the boot heel of the Climate charlatans are well and truly screwed.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  YallaYPoora Kid
January 3, 2023 8:48 am

But for all the wrong reasons, so he is not correct at all. Idiotic adoption of policies that create a catastrophe in and of themselves do not make his nonsense ‘correct’ to any degree.

Bill Toland
January 3, 2023 3:43 am

I must applaud Paul Ehrlich for his astonishing record of always being wrong. This is quite an achievement. He is now a climate alarmist thereby maintaining his proud record of being on the wrong side of every argument.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Bill Toland
January 3, 2023 6:11 am

Given the unrelenting march of socialism through the West’s institutions, he might always be wrong, but so far he has been on the winning side.

nailheadtom
January 3, 2023 4:09 am

Cassandras like Ehrlich once made their predictions while standing on park benches. Our post-modern internet allows them to widely distribute their fantasies from the comfort of their own homes. The true wonder is how many are anxious to accept these malformed ideas.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  nailheadtom
January 3, 2023 4:18 am

Ehrlich is an Anti-Cassandra. She was cursed to make predictions which nobody believed but came to pass. Ehrlich makes predictions which fail, but everyone believes them.

strativarius
Reply to  nailheadtom
January 3, 2023 4:18 am

“The true wonder is how many are anxious to accept these malformed ideas.”

As I recall, Dr John Holdren – ex colleague of Ehrlich & Ehrlich – took them into Obama’s White House

Last edited 26 days ago by strativarius
Tom Abbott
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 4:41 am

Holdren had a few failed predictions himself.

strativarius
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 3, 2023 4:48 am

I think his best effort was explaining that global warming means colder winters.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  strativarius
January 3, 2023 8:55 am

Nothing like convincing people that the result of your theoretical construct is the precise opposite of what your theoretical construct would suggest!

andersjoan
Reply to  nailheadtom
January 3, 2023 6:12 am

‘nailheadtom’ – You are spot on with this one : Just why do so many believe? You suggest the internet is why.

I agree – that is the only thing which has changed. Mass panics – doomsday prophesies – end-of-the-world theories are nothing new. But always remained just local phenomena – usual always inside the personal reach of some powerful, charismatic person.

But these days one such crazy notion goes global – even gets governments hooked.

Drake
Reply to  andersjoan
January 3, 2023 10:05 am

But the “internet” is not doing it, the MSM is with its one sided coverage. The BBC even declared they would no longer give ‘deniers” a voice on the air.

The rest of the MSM did the same, but without the declaration.

nailheadtom
Reply to  Drake
January 3, 2023 12:02 pm

Today’s media production is based on the information available on the internet. Between the introduction of the printing press and the adoption of the electrical transmission of information virtually all media was of a local nature. The failing MSM is in the business of counting eyeballs in order to justify billings. They must inspire fear and panic in order to get the looks and then the income from advertisers. The main reason that political activity predominates in the media is that the subject matter is free, politicians and government figures provide free copy, they write the stories that the MSM distributes.

MCourtney
January 3, 2023 4:29 am

Meanwhile, thanks to fossil fuels providing cheap energy, deaths from natural disaters have not trended upwards.

Quite the opposite.

If he hasn’t apologised yet, he cannot be considered a fool.
He is definitely a knave.

JD Lunkerman
January 3, 2023 4:32 am

This is fantastic. The ultimate contrarian signal. We would be fools not to listen. Work, save, invest. Clearly the next 20 years now hold immense promise and hope. He has spoken. I just moved a significant amount of funds into the market based on his new pronouncement. I am so excited about the future again.

Tom Johnson
January 3, 2023 4:32 am

With his PhD in butterflies, Ehrlich should stick with those things he might know something about – butterflies. A sandwich board with butterflies on it would fit him quite well. There might even be some sub-species of butterflies somewhere, likely in danger of freezing.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Tom Johnson
January 3, 2023 9:22 am

The butterfly experts experience frequent surprises. What they don’t know fills journals.

Tom Abbott
January 3, 2023 4:36 am

From the article: “The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

If it is, it will be because of stupid/delusional/conniving politicians and their efforts to eliminate CO2, when there is no valid reason to eliminate CO2.

In other words, the destruction of our civilizations over an unreasonable fear of CO2 was not necessary.

commieBob
January 3, 2023 4:47 am

The solution to over-population is simple. Just wait. Large chunks of the globe are facing population collapse. Because of birth control and urbanization, the folks there haven’t been having enough kids. They now lack enough young people to have enough children to stop the trend.

The problem isn’t as bad in the USofA because a large chunk of the population lives in the suburbs where people can still comfortably have a family. Some people, like Peter Zeihan and George Friedman, think China is just about done for right now.

hiskorr
Reply to  commieBob
January 3, 2023 6:00 am

The USA is relying on an extra 2-4million young immigrants (~1%) per year to keep the population growing. Unfortunately, we have no idea who they are, where they go, or what they produce.

John Hultquist
Reply to  hiskorr
January 3, 2023 9:28 am

we have no idea who they are, where they go, “

How does this differ from when the first colony was founded at Jamestown, Virginia, in 1607? 

DonM
Reply to  hiskorr
January 3, 2023 5:05 pm

not entirely true.

I chased one off my back porch at 3:30 am a few weeks ago; He was tapping on the window with a 2 LB hammer.

I don’t know who he was; he went over the fence (when I told him I was letting the dogs out); and he produced nothing but a reinforcement of my negative attitude toward mexican vagrants & the police.

MarkW
Reply to  DonM
January 3, 2023 7:38 pm

I don’t remember which colony it was, but one of the first things they did while settling in was to find and eat the seed corn that the locals had stored away for planting in the spring.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
January 3, 2023 5:12 am

I used to say that Ehrlich had made a long, successful and distinguished career out of being sensationally wrong on every prediction/projection/pronouncement he has ever made. However in the past few years I have been forced to admit he was proven correct on this one:

Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks …

Of course he was a bit off on the timeline — that was supposed to happen by 1980 and the mask mandates didn’t start until 40 years later. He was also claiming this would be in response to air pollution rather than negligent US government funded frankenvirus research.

Politifact would rate this “partly true”.

The irony is if any of his doomsday predictions ever do come true, it will be because of bungling and authoritarian government policy motivated by exactly his kind of alarmist claptrap.

The fact that anyone still gives Ehrlich the time of day is proof P. T. Barnum was correct: there is a sucker born every minute. And many of them find their way into journalism; the rest end up in government.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
January 3, 2023 9:36 am

The “gas mask” quote was (I think) from 1970, although he might have made similar statements earlier. Regardless, by the 1960s pollution controls were underway in the USA, in part, because of the 1948 Donora Smog event. Apparently, he wasn’t up on current events — still seems to be true.

DonM
Reply to  John Hultquist
January 3, 2023 5:17 pm

I think Joe Biden’s father, a blue collar hard working truck driver, saved 48 women and children during the event; he got up early and drove (with his own gas money) to Donora before he worked his own 12 shift. Joe’s sense of compassion and empathy developed around this event, as he remembers looking out of his crib and seeing his mom taking care of three of the families that they put up in their home (one in Joe’s bedroom room … great grandparents all the way to the 7 babies … five generations in all … Joe volunteered to move into the closet for the duration). The 7th baby was born in Joe’s room … they named her Josephine … after Joe.

Steve Case
January 3, 2023 5:25 am

Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932) Wikipedia
_________________________________

There’s no fool like an old fool.

Editor
Reply to  Steve Case
January 3, 2023 5:13 pm

It is a sign that he has been in an ideology rut for decades now, never getting wiser over his long list of prediction failures.

observa
January 3, 2023 5:26 am

Join the Chicken Little club too Tim Flannery as they’re getting very wet feet up north in tropical cyclone country-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/fitzroy-river-record-broken-as-heavy-rainfall-drenches-wa/ar-AA15TwNI
I predict these people will experience drought again before the dooming. Mark my words skeptics and ye of little faith.

Drake
Reply to  observa
January 3, 2023 10:09 am

That Aussie drought sure is wet.

Yirgach
January 3, 2023 5:52 am

The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.

Gee, does that mean things are just going to keep getting better and better?
Why do they keep calling this guy a doom and gloomer? Sounds rather upbeat to me.

wilpost
January 3, 2023 6:03 am

Paul Ehrlich has correctly predicted the consequences of having 8 to 10 billion people raping and plundering the increasingly fragile environment, which is usually portrayed as desirable gross world product

The population issue far exceeds any issues regarding adverse effects of global warming, because it directly affects the survival and health of the other flora and fauna, which are vital, but insufficient, for feeding the current population; think generous applications of artificial fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, and GMO crops

That flora and fauna has an impaired healthcare system that cannot prevent extinction/weakening of major parts of the flora and fauna

Population reduction of about 5% per year should be the goal, until about 1 billion is left over

That one billion would have to be on a strict materials and energy diet, i.e., much recycling, and at least 50% or more of the habitable land area would need to be declared off limits for humans

Last edited 26 days ago by wilpost
Yirgach
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 6:23 am

Well how could he correctly predict something which hasn’t happened yet?
He is just forecasting based on an incomplete understanding of an extremely complicated system, which no one truly understands.

Curious George
Reply to  Yirgach
January 3, 2023 7:42 am

He correctly predicted many things which never happened .. so far ..:-)

3x2
Reply to  Curious George
January 3, 2023 10:30 am

Like I said earlier. You bet on every Horse in the race then I’m guessing that you will win.

3x2
Reply to  Yirgach
January 3, 2023 10:09 am

“Well how could he correctly predict something which hasn’t happened yet?”

Because you and your friends work tirelessly to make it happen?

strativarius
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 7:13 am

“The population issue far exceeds any issues “

Given your ‘knowledge’ of this issue, what keeps you drawing breath and emitting a pollutant?

Last edited 26 days ago by strativarius
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 7:29 am

It is interesting to compare the “world’s ideal population” as set forth by various advocates — the disparity is enormous which suggests questionable if any methodology. You say 1 billion; I think Ehrlich advocated for 2 billion and I believe Either Prince (now King) Charles or Ted Turner thought it should be 500 million. One publication lists studies suggesting values between 1.5 and 3 billion one of which cheerfully advises:

The most heavily populated countries in absolute terms are by far China and India. Their combined arable land and cropland is only 19 % of the global total; however, they are home for the 37 % of the world’s population. Therefore, the authors suggest that the population of these countries should decrease by 1.9 billion. They believe this is achievable with effective family planning programs, strong ethical policies and government incentives.

Just how anyone is going to convince two nuclear-armed neighboring adversaries to jointly agree on “effective family planning programs, strong ethical policies and government incentives” is not stated. That our accomplished and eminent climate envoy John Kerry has failed to convince Russia and Ukraine that climate change is more important then their petty squabble over a few thousand square miles of territory despite many tons of CO2-belching jet flights around the world should suggest just what a heavy lift that will be.

Two questions you should consider:

  1. Assuming you can get worldwide agreement, exactly how do you propose to reduce population to the “ideal” level? Please be specific and not traffic in vacuous generalities such as “effective family planning programs, strong ethical policies and government incentives”.
  2. Assuming you manage to effect the population reduction you deem necessary, what level of technology can we maintain?

The assumption behind the various ZPG movements is that increased population means more poverty, starvation and general misery for people and polar bears alike. In fact in the 50 years since the first Earth Day in 1970 exactly the opposite has happened. The other, and as far as I am aware always unstated, assumption in all these papers is we can continue to enjoy 2020 technology with the population of 1850.

I believe if human population is reduced to 1 billion, even under the heroically optimistic assumption this does not trigger massively violent global unrest, that within one generation we will fall back to roughly the level of technology we had in the early 1800s when population was last at the same level.

By the same reckoning, a world of 2 billion people would regress to about 1920s technology and a world of 3 billion would regress to the 1960s. Think how absolutely horrible and repressive that would be. Back then, people were so ignorant they thought there were only two genders!

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
January 3, 2023 11:11 am

Musk says there aren’t enough people….but then again he’s trying to sell electric cars to a C02 emissions constrained populace, so he might be biased. /s

wilpost
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
January 5, 2023 5:36 am

Germany has a high level of technical development achieved with about 20 million, including food producers,etc. That is only a small part of Germany’s 85 million population

I would offer a significant cash payment to women 16 to 40, plus a FREE operation, instead of “taking the pill”.
About 25 million operations would be required per year to reduce the world population
Other tricks to play with eggs and sperm should be outlawed

Andy Pattullo
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 8:10 am

The fact you believe this means Erlich’s and other’s lies are working as far as their interests are concerned. You have exactly the wrong end of this. Think instead about 8 billion people who attained the highest standards of living ever seen in human society and who have progressively increased their ability to feed themselves while reducing their impact on the natural world through urbanization, industrial agriculture and self-control of fertility.

Now remove the energy underpinnings and social organization of those 8 billion people and the following will occur:

  1. every scrap of consumable protein (i.e. all edible species) become food and natural populations are rapidly destroyed
  2. every twig and branch becomes fuel and deforestation destroys natural habitats everywhere
  3. every other person becomes competition for declining resources and violent conflict is every day’s task
  4. eventually the doom mongers get their wish and the human population falls to small fraction of what it is now, living in a destroyed wreck of nature where life spans are less than thirty years and disease, hunger and misery are all that’s left.

This is the world you will have if people listen to people like you and Erlich.

John Hultquist
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 9:51 am

the increasingly fragile environment, “

Why “increasingly”?

The “environment” appears to be quite robust. Examples include recently unglaciated areas, Bikini Atoll, the zone around Chernobyl, and the forests of NE USA.

3x2
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 10:06 am

“Paul Ehrlich has correctly predicted the consequences of having 8 to 10 billion people raping and plundering the increasingly fragile environment”

Just how much mass/atoms leave this Planet every day?

Paul Ehrlich is a “dick”. Just what effect does more CO2 have? Feeding the ‘extra’ billions?
Couldn’t see that one coming. So Ehrlich wants less CO2 and less resources.

He’s forcing his own predictions upon us …

observa
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 3:03 pm

By the way how is Paul going with the crowdsourcing of the Kool-aid ready for the big day with the devotees? Any news on the actual date yet? It must be getting close now what with all the tipping points and the doomsday clock tick tick ticking.

Joe Shaw
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 4:34 pm

“Population reduction of about 5% per year should be the goal, until about 1 billion is left over”

The current global mortality rate is 0.77% per year. To get to 5% would require 360 million murders per year. Or were you looking for volunteers? If you are serious then by all means set an example for the rest of us.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/

DonM
Reply to  wilpost
January 3, 2023 5:25 pm

Wil,

I have not been raping and plundering.

My guess is that you haven’t been raping and plundering either.

If it weren’t for people like you and me, the human race would have destroyed itself long ago.

Thanks for doing your part …

… from me ‘n Wil to the rest of you 8,000,000,000 … don’t be rape’n.

missoulamike
Reply to  wilpost
January 4, 2023 2:37 am

You first.

Hatter Eggburn
Reply to  wilpost
January 6, 2023 6:53 am

Elon Musk is right – there are too few people in the world.
Not too many. Too few.

gdtkona
January 3, 2023 6:11 am

“In the next few decades” … As always, some time in the future far enough away that the prognosticator cannot be held accountable.

stevekj
Reply to  gdtkona
January 3, 2023 7:54 am

Sadly for Ehrlich, he has already lived long enough to be held accountable for his earlier predictions, and they were all wrong 🙂 Doesn’t stop him though! And even more sadly, doesn’t stop people from continuing to believe him!

sciguy54
January 3, 2023 6:14 am

Two notable quotes from Mr Ehrlich:

“A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. We must shift our efforts from the treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer.”

“Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”

From the look of things, the world powers that be have incorporated these quotes as part of their blueprint.

Andy Pattullo
Reply to  sciguy54
January 3, 2023 8:15 am

Yes they have and they have completely misinterpreted the evidence. Because of energy and modern development the most advanced societies already limit their fertility by choice and demographers reliably predict the end of human population growth about mid century. Even now it is increasing lifespan that drives increasing population rather than birth rates. Humanitarians would consider this a good thing while catastrophic environmentalists can’t see anything but bad news when humans flourish.

If the idiot elites would stop hindering the development of our less developed friends on this planet we could sort things out even sooner.

Louis Hunt
January 3, 2023 6:32 am

If Ehrlich and his friends succeed in banning fossil fuels, it will be the end of civilization as we know it. He doesn’t get to take credit for Self-fulfilling prophecies.

Doud D
January 3, 2023 6:35 am

Very conveniently he will most likely be able to push this off for a few decades after he passes . He seems to have no sense of the adaptation of the human race to stress.

ResourceGuy
January 3, 2023 6:38 am

Doom peddling for home additions or home solar panel installs should be illegal.

guidvce4
January 3, 2023 6:47 am

Oh crap. Not another prediction from the guy who has had nothing but failed predictions for decades. Yep. Just can’t keep his mouth shut and make a fool out of himself for the umpteenth time.
Do folks actually believe this nutjob at this point? Time to reopen the loony bins. Oh wait, that is what the universities have become.
Just sayin’.

michael hart
January 3, 2023 6:50 am

The guy is 90 in the shade.
His thinking hasn’t changed in decades and never will.

Dave O.
January 3, 2023 6:57 am

Ehrlich has made a good living out of being wrong. Just like Al Gore getting the Nobel Prize for lying.

ResourceGuy
January 3, 2023 7:07 am

He was also dead wrong about the metal markets and scarcity which he knew zip about. Such predictions based on no academic or professional knowledge or experience support the notion that any good yarn will do as long as the average policy maker and average reader does not know much either or it involves nonlinear or not obvious relationships.

Shoki
January 3, 2023 7:11 am

An extinction I would like to see is that of self-aggrandizing pseudo-scientists like Ehrlich and Mann.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
January 3, 2023 7:38 am

And yet we are still here … better fed, better educated, longer lived, and with fewer poor.

Andy Pattullo
January 3, 2023 7:52 am

Fortunately Paul Erlich isn’t sustainable. Ashes to ashes for all of us in the end. Saying civilization won’t be what we’re used to in a few decades is the easiest prediction yet. Few things stay the same over twenty years. The end is always nigh which is the same thing as next week will be different than this week.

ssm59
January 3, 2023 8:06 am

I did not know April fools day had moved to January. Once I stopped laughing I realized he was serious. Broken Clock strategy, he has been perennially wrong for 50 years but just wait ultimately he will be correct. Just wait, and wait, and wait………

apsteffe
January 3, 2023 8:15 am

After 50 years, and seeing he was wrong about his predictions, you would expect him to learn from his mistakes. But he can’t do that, because *his view of the world is wrong*.

Andy Pattullo
January 3, 2023 8:19 am

Clearly with one foot in the compost Erlich wants to be remembered as the “I-told-you-so” king, but hasn’t enough wit to know truth from fiction. He will always be know as just another deluded catastrophist.

SMS
January 3, 2023 8:30 am

The readers and commenters on this site should know that Paul Ehrlich will be right. Just not in the time frame or way he originally thought, and not for the reasons he believed.

If the environmentalists and progressives get their way, energy production and food will be cut to some rate/volume that will not sustain our current population. No fertilizers allowed, no fossil fuels allowed. The progressives will tell us that Ehrlich was right all along as millions die from starvation and exposure, but the root cause will be the measures put in place by progressives and environmentalists.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  SMS
January 3, 2023 4:22 pm

Yes, happening today

AGW is Not Science
January 3, 2023 8:37 am

I’m confused. Did Ehrlic predict the introduction of Eco-Fascist policies? Because THAT is the only thing that will make his wet dream catastrophes come to life.

If the mass stupidity of “green” policies stops, there won’t be any “end of civilization as we know it.”

NOR DOES THERE NEED TO BE.

fdemaris
January 3, 2023 8:43 am

Does Paul Ehrlich still want all the poor brown people to starve to death? With the current War on energy in the US and the shooting war in Ukraine (it and Russia are major food and fertilizer exporters), Ehrlich may finally get his wish.

ResourceGuy
January 3, 2023 8:44 am

Maybe he could do something useful like explaining why the Doomsday Clock gets stuck and out of the news when a Dem is in the WH but with a land war in Europe and exponential growth of nukes in Russia, China and NK arsenals.

ResourceGuy
January 3, 2023 8:46 am

He is correct in the limited cases of SF and Portland.

Mr Ed
January 3, 2023 9:07 am

Corporate media drags this thing out from where ever to start the new year off?
But nothing on the twitter files, FTX ect?? Can’t believe a single word from
the MSM….

3x2
January 3, 2023 9:13 am

“The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

And we are the ones making damn sure that it happens …

Bruce Cobb
January 3, 2023 9:15 am

Under the Catastrophysics of Ehrlich and others, the end is always nigh, and the jig is always up. The fix is in, the horse has left the barnyard, and the chickens are coming home to roost, not to mention the climate canary in the coal mine has kicked the bucket.

roger
January 3, 2023 9:47 am

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice,shame on me.

Redge
January 3, 2023 10:49 am

1968 climate catastrophe predictions 

What?

Now he’s claiming in 1968 he predicted there would be a climate catastrophe!

BS as well as wrong, wrong, wrong

Brad-DXT
January 3, 2023 10:52 am

“What can I say – I think it is nice for old people to have a hobby, keeps them active.”

Here in the U.S. we have a dementia ridden old fart ruining the country to keep him active. The results are not optimal.

Paul Ehrlich should have been deposited in the dust bin decades ago but the leftists keep trotting him out like a prize pony.Pathetic.

sskinner
January 3, 2023 10:54 am

Humanity is consuming 175 percent of what the earth can regenerate.”
I could just leave it there but where to begin?
Related to this I also see there is something called ‘Earth Overshoot Day’:
Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year. In 2022, Earth Overshoot Day lands on July 28.”
So if everything has been used up by July 28, which is also a very precise date, then what are people consuming after that date because there are 5 months in this fantasy world before all the Earth’s ecological resources are somehow restocked? If they aren’t restocked then something is very wrong with this hypothesis as all life should have gone some decades ago. At the website overshootday.org is a table listing countries and how many earths each one requires. Out of 188 countries it is stated that 132 need more that 1 earth. This is all written as if true.

https://www.overshootday.org/how-many-earths-or-countries-do-we-need/#:~:text=Humanity%20is%20using%20nature%201.8,the%20resources%20of%201.8%20Earths.

Peta of Newark
January 3, 2023 11:25 am

Poor old boy, he’s been assimilated.
It had to happen, he had to succumb, become A Borg, a Stepford Wife or Dalek.
It seems that even his own wife was instrumental, now become a Screaming Shreaking Hysterical Shrew

His prediction did come true, Humanity died. The soul. The spirit. The empathy. The real science. Medicine & Politics. All dead

Only zombies remain. The lights are on but no-one’s home

In their sugar-induced depression, belligerence, paranoia and magical thinking, the zombies have convinced themselves that everything is never better – while at the same time everybody else is wrong.

How do you square that circle?
Seriously: If everything is ‘never better’ – why is everybody else always doing something wrong?

As long as the sugar keeps coming, so it will be: Simultaneously never better and always wrong

Energywise
January 3, 2023 11:55 am

Maybe Paul is on something? He should apply to be one of the first Mars settlers – the Martians can teach him many things

Last edited 26 days ago by Energywise
John the Econ
January 3, 2023 12:06 pm

How embarrassing: Old age is going to get Paul Ehrlich before any of his predictions will.

Cam_S
January 3, 2023 12:34 pm

A good article here, about Paul Ehrlich’s failed predictions of doom, versus reality.

From January 1, 2023.

– – – – – – – –

Raymond J. de Souza: A New Year and a possible new population fear
As global population growth continues to slow, the fear of overpopulation may be replaced by one of too few people

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/a-new-year-and-a-possible-new-population-fear

Last edited 26 days ago by Cam_S
Neo
January 3, 2023 12:54 pm

“The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

I predict Paul Ehrlich will pass on and we won’t have him to kick around any more

ResourceGuy
January 3, 2023 1:06 pm

I didn’t realize Ehrlich was this bad..

WSJ
Mr. Ehrlich was more than a sore loser. In 1995, he told this paper: “If Simon disappeared from the face of the Earth, that would be great for humanity.” (Simon would die in 1998.) This comment wasn’t out of character. “The Bet” is filled chockablock with Mr. Ehrlich’s outbursts—calling those who disagree with him “idiots,” “fools,” “morons,” “clowns” and worse. His righteous zeal is matched by both his viciousness in disagreement and his utter imperviousness to contrary evidence. For example, he has criticized the scientists behind the historic Green Revolution in agriculture—men like Norman Borlaug, who fed poor people the world over through the creation of scientific farming—as “narrow-minded colleagues who are proposing idiotic panaceas to solve the food problem.”

It sounds like M. Mann, so we need to dust off the personality studies to compare them.

Hatter Eggburn
January 3, 2023 3:58 pm

Does Earl Paulich still believe that the world’s population is increasing exponentially?

Pat from Kerbob
January 3, 2023 4:19 pm

Shellenberger posted a pretty good takedown of Ehrlich

Allan MacRae
January 4, 2023 1:13 am

The murdering globalist totalitarians are creating chaos in our energy and medical sectors with their popular delusions, and that is fulfilling Ehrlich’s prophesies by entirely different ways – the Big Cull of the elderly and poor will happen in Europe this Winter, due to unworkable woke energy policies and resulting energy shortages, and deliberate mismanagement of the Covid-19 scam with destructive lockdowns and toxic “vaccines”. It was never about the Climate or about Covid – it was always about destruction, carnage and CONTROL.

ResourceGuy
January 4, 2023 6:36 am

He would make a good drug lord with shipments north of 10 million fentanyl pills per day and a loose border security system to catch token amounts.

Billyjack
January 4, 2023 9:36 am

Did the resurrect Ehrlich to make Greta and Algore seem intelligent?

Neo
January 4, 2023 9:41 am

BabylonBee: 60 Minutes Interviews Population Control Expert Thanos

ResourceGuy
January 4, 2023 11:57 am

Thankfully, he’s not in charge of the NK nuclear arsenal.

Gunga Din
January 4, 2023 12:17 pm

If ANY of his “doom’s day” prophesies are anywhere close to coming true, it’s NOT because of population or the climate but only because of political policies based on preventing his bogus theories from coming true. (And those will only effect the West, not the planet.)

Last edited 25 days ago by Gunga Din
Hatter Eggburn
January 5, 2023 1:21 am

Paul Ehrlich is remarkable in that he sums up, in a single person, all that is wrong with flawed and politically dystopian modern science.

In a complex system you can’t extrapolate anything.

Last edited 24 days ago by Hatter Eggburn
Kpar
January 5, 2023 8:58 am

Some things never change.

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