UN WMO: La Niña Protection from Global Warming will be “Short Lived”

Essay by Eric Worrall

Send money – the UN wants “increasing investment in the basic global observing system” to monitor the global warming they expect will show up any day now.

WMO releases ‘tell-tale signs’ of extreme weather conditions around the world

Climate and Environment

From extreme floods to heat and drought, weather and climate-related disasters have affected millions and cost billions this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday, describing the “tell-tale signs and impacts” of intensified climate change.

The clear need to do much more to cut greenhouse gas emissions was again underscored throughout events in 2022, said the UN weather agency, advocating for strengthened climate change adaptation, including universal access to early warnings.

“This year we have faced several dramatic weather disasters which claimed far too many lives and livelihoods and undermined health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure”, said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.

While the persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 will not be the warmest year on record, its cooling impact will be short-lived and not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

Early warnings

Early warnings, increasing investment in the basic global observing system and building resilience to extreme weather and climate will be among WMO priorities in 2023 – the year that the WMO community celebrates its 150th anniversary.

Read more: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/12/1131992

I’m surprised the WMO article forgot to mention all the global warming induced extreme cold the USA is experiencing this Christmas. Maybe they were worried that reminding people how cold it is might confuse their pitch for more “investment” to monitor global warming.

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Decaf
December 26, 2022 2:08 pm

I can’t keep up with these people. First warming, then cooling, then climate change, and now warming again? I think I missed the moment this last transition happened. It was probably when I watched Died Suddenly. Things happen fast these days.

noaaprogramer
Reply to  Decaf
December 26, 2022 5:05 pm

Yes, such flip-flopping has been going on for scores of years. I just came across this song from the 1870s:

“…And even the climate is changing,
For only ten years ago,
Strawberries got ripe in December,
Whilst now it brings four feet of snow.”

From the song variously called the “Wail of an Old Settler” or “Social Decline”, which was a sequel to the song, “The Old Settler,” by Francis Henry around 1874; published in the April 11, 1877 edition of the Washington [State] Standard; reprinted on pages 6 & 7 in “The Rainy Day Song Book” by Linda Allen © 1978; 2nd printing March 1980, Whatcom Museum of History and Art, 121 Prospect St., Bellingham, WA 98225. Printed by Fairhaven Communications.

another ian
Reply to  noaaprogramer
December 27, 2022 1:35 am

I’ll trade you.

“Said Hanrahan” on social and other declines

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/39721083

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Decaf
December 27, 2022 4:03 am

“I can’t keep up with these people.”

That’s the plan. Their purpose is to confuse the issue so it doesn’t look like they are losing the CAGW argument.

rah
Reply to  Decaf
December 27, 2022 8:02 am

Well according to “the science”, the effects on the polar jet stream by “Global Warming”, “Global Cooling”, and “Climate Change” are identical:

Symptoms Of Global Warming And Global Cooling Are Identical | Real Climate Science

Hivemind
Reply to  rah
December 27, 2022 8:11 pm

And the solution is the same, too – give them lots of money and power.

Richard M
December 26, 2022 2:08 pm

I think a lot of us are hoping for an ENSO neutral year in 2023 to get a real handle on the current global temperature. Going to take a few months for the current La Nina to dissipate and then probably another 3-4 months lag time before we can analyze the situation. IOW, at least another 6 months.

BurlHenry
Reply to  Richard M
December 26, 2022 5:47 pm

Richard M:

The current La Nina will continue for many years. It is being caused by increased industrial SO2 aerosol emissions, primarily from China and India,.

Fluid Feb 2022.png
JCM
Reply to  BurlHenry
December 26, 2022 5:57 pm

nina is connected to this cold blob in the southern ocean. keep an eye there.

Untitled.png
Peta of Newark
Reply to  BurlHenry
December 26, 2022 6:39 pm

Tell me I’m reading that picture wrong – tell me it was not created to be so

What sort of Junk Units are ‘Molecules per cm3
Then we get a scale of 1e12.

Sounds impressive

Google says that there are 1e25 molecules per cubic metre of surface atmosphere..
or 1e19 molecules per cubic centimetre
Ten million trillion

So the green bits in the picture are saying “one molecule of SO2 for every 1e7 molecules of air

i.e. SO2 is thus forecast to be one part in 10 million
Else, the blue bits, about 1 part in 100 million

And this is stuff that is even more water soluble than water itself, a briefest of brief rain showers will wash it all away. (##)

Yet from a range distance of maybe 10,000 miles, that is what controls long-term weather?

## To set off Global Greening, Sulphur is number 4 on the list of Serious Agricultural Fertilisers

Terry
Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 27, 2022 12:54 am

What sort of Junk Units are ‘Molecules per cm3

This is the most common unit of concentration of gas phase contaminants in the fields of spectroscopy and gas phase kinetics. Far more common than the more familiar ppm or mg/m3

Not Junk Units

BurlHenry
Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 27, 2022 11:48 am

Peta of Newark:

You, and probably a lot of others, fail to understand how SO2 aerosols affect our climate.

BurlHenry
Reply to  BurlHenry
December 27, 2022 12:01 pm

The SO2 aerosol is a mist of small droplets of Sulfuric acid.. These droplets reflect sunlight, and cool the Earth’s surface underneath. This is why temperatures always decrease after a VEI4 or larger volcanic eruption, which injects these dimming aerosols into the stratosphere.

Google NASA’s fact sheet on atmospheric aerosols.

JCM
Reply to  Richard M
December 26, 2022 6:35 pm

Personally I am hoping for a 4th consecutive negative ENSO. For this might send everyone into a tizzy if maa nature has some tricks up her sleeve. Usually it takes something undeniably unexpected to pry at one’s assumptions

johnesm
Reply to  JCM
December 26, 2022 8:21 pm

Yeah, but the western United States could use a good helping of El Niño, at least for one year. Too much La Niña is not a good thing for us (I’m in Colorado).

another ian
Reply to  johnesm
December 27, 2022 2:06 am

I wonder what we grew in the southern hemisphere back when the Anasazi were having their drought problems?

ATheoK
Reply to  another ian
December 27, 2022 7:20 am

I wonder what we grew in the southern hemisphere back when the Anasazi were having their drought problems?”

The Anasazi lived is a large area near the four corners area of Southwest Colorado, Arizona, Utah, etc., in the Northern Hemisphere.

Corn, tomatoes, peppers, potatoes, etc. all originated in the Southern Hemisphere and were brought to the Northern Hemisphere.

The Anasazi (ancient enemy) primarily grew corn, squash and beans.
They had bred a corn plant whose seeds were capable of long taproots that reached deep soil with moisture.

The Pueblo and Anasazi farmed their area for approximately 2,500 years. It is likely that a 25 year megadrought circa 1300 AD, that forced the natives to stop farming their high mesas and plateaus and move elsewhere.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  johnesm
December 27, 2022 4:10 am

The Western U.S. is going to be getting a lot of rain. No arctic front this time, just milder air off the Pacific ocean.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-127.09,25.94,264

Mr Ed
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 27, 2022 8:22 am

The Ol’ Pineapple Express….It’s been a rollercoaster over the holiday
in W MT. -35F to +42F in 12 hrs. This morning 40 and light rain…

rah
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 27, 2022 8:28 am

As we have learned watching the news over the years, California always has some kind of emergency. If it’s not earthquakes, it’s drought, if it’s not drought, it’s wild fires, if it’s not wild fires, it’s too much rain causing mudslides.

So get ready because the reservoir filling, drought ending, great ski condition causing sustained precipitation, is no doubt going to cause hill sides to come sliding down.

BurlHenry
Reply to  johnesm
December 27, 2022 12:17 pm

Johnesm:

You appear to be confused. An El Nino brings higher temperatures, and droughts. See the ENSO meter at right on this page

johnesm
Reply to  BurlHenry
December 27, 2022 6:26 pm

Yeah, they’ll claim that El Niño will raise temperatures. But the West needs snow anyhow

Richard M
Reply to  JCM
December 26, 2022 8:24 pm

I think all possibilities are still in play. I had thought the warming off the west coast of SA was an indication the La Nina run was over. Now I’m not sure. I don’t see any obvious movement in the subsurface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific that tend to predict what will happen next.

ATheoK
Reply to  JCM
December 27, 2022 6:59 am

4th consecutive negative ENSO”

PDO is negative and the AMO is turning negative. It will be difficult to separate the effect, except that it means cooler weather.

Tom Halla
December 26, 2022 2:08 pm

I dunno. UAH seems to be doing fairly well, and is well calibrated against weather balloons.
The surface sites are both too sparse and contaminated with UHI, especially as too many sites are at airports.
I have the impression the advocates do not actually want accurate weather records, as they tend to not fit the narrative.

RickWill
December 26, 2022 2:12 pm

I’m surprised the WMO article forgot to mention all the global warming induced extreme cold the USA is experiencing this Christmas

Once the connection is made between “global warming” and more snow in the NH, it will dawn on many more people that the termination of the modern interglacial is under way.

The orbit precession is in the same phase for the next 10,000 years that terminated the last four interglacials.
Heat_Ice_Stores.pdf

RickWill
Reply to  RickWill
December 26, 2022 2:15 pm

This from the link:

National Weather Service is calling a “once-in-a-generation type event”

Snow fall records will be a feature of weather reporting for the next 8,000 years.

Mike
Reply to  RickWill
December 26, 2022 4:31 pm

Once the connection is made between “global warming” ”

A long bow at this stage I suspect.

AndyHce
Reply to  RickWill
December 26, 2022 4:44 pm

I don’t think there are “many more people” who ara aware that such a thing as an interglacial exists.

RickWill
Reply to  AndyHce
December 26, 2022 5:41 pm

They will begin to appreciate when the snow is piling up.

The modellers have already recognised that their models are under reporting snow fall.
https://phys.org/news/2022-02-depth-trends-revealed-cmip6-conflict.html

The models reproduced decreasing snow depth trends that contradicted the observations, although they all indicated an increase in precipitation during the cold season.

You can bet the modelled snow fall/melt is based on parameters rather than physics but once the tweaks are done to match observations, they will see projections result in snow accumulation. That is when they will begin to understand that the precession of the orbit is the driver of climate trends.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  RickWill
December 27, 2022 4:22 am

“The models reproduced decreasing snow depth trends that contradicted the observations,”

It’s not good for alarmists when the observations contradict the models. What’s not good for alarmists, is good for the rest of us.

scvblwxq
Reply to  AndyHce
December 27, 2022 8:38 am

Very few articles about climate even mention that the geological climate that the Earth has been in for 2.588 million years is an ice age named the Quaternary Glaciation and the Earth will be in this ice age until all the natural ice on Earth melts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

60 degrees Fahrenheit is about the coldest people can live in without technology like clothes, shoes, coats, heated buildings, and the like. Most places outside of the tropics would be uninhabitable during the winter without technology.

Shoki
December 26, 2022 2:24 pm

Where does the heat go? If we’re burning up, the heat must be somewhere. Maybe it’s hiding in the deep ocean, again.

Last edited 1 month ago by Shoki
RickWill
Reply to  Shoki
December 26, 2022 2:35 pm

Where does the heat go?

The most significant “global warming” is occurring on land north of 40N in winter when the land (or ice on it) is below 0C. That is verified by NASA’s temperature anomaly chart for 2021.

It takes the energy equivalent of burning 100kg of coal to liberate and elevate 1000kg water from the ocean surface to land. The water vapour warms the land surface as it solidifies to form snow.

So a lot of the additional heat into the NH ends up as snow on land. It is already accumulating on Greenland and Iceland because of proximity to water. Other land masses like Siberia and northern Canada will follow in time.

Screen Shot 2022-12-22 at 7.59.49 am.png
David Dibbell
December 26, 2022 2:30 pm

“…the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.”

How “long” was that warming trend? Maybe 40-50 years since the well-publicized global cooling trend ended? And let’s remember that cause-and-effect has not, in fact, been established by any reliable means. We’ll see what happens.

Duker
Reply to  David Dibbell
December 26, 2022 3:34 pm

Its only parts per million PPM .

The major atmosphere greenhouse gas by quantity is H2O which is 2-3 parts per hundred (outside clouds)

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Duker
December 27, 2022 8:08 am

but at 11km up, at top of troposphere, H2O is only 5 ppm….

davidmhoffer
December 26, 2022 2:50 pm

building resilience to extreme weather and climate will be among WMO priorities

What is “building resilience”? Are they getting ready to pivot from mitigation to adaptation?

martinc19
Reply to  davidmhoffer
December 26, 2022 4:23 pm

“building resilience to extreme weather ….” was part of my job for about 2 decades. In association with building surveyors, JCU Cyclone Testing Station, State and Federal building code officers, insurance company actuaries. Damage substantially reduced, fatalities down to none. I don’t recall any meteorologicals turning up or offering funding. On a couple of occasions the JCU SWIRLnet devices showed that the BoM were falsifying wind speeds. They also deleted a reliable anemometer record days after the cyclone had passed over, eg it broke retrospectively.

cilo
Reply to  martinc19
December 27, 2022 1:04 am

With respect martin, I think you are using the term “building resilience” in the wrong context here.
Building buildings resilient to extreme weather is called good engineering, which you seem to have done for a living.
When the Communists use the term it is more of a threat. Like “sustainability”, the term has nothing to do with reality, it is a financial term. When one compares the words to the deeds and resulting effects in the real world, Sustainability refers to the suitability of some product or service as a monopolisable “financial vehicle”.
I am not quite sure what they mean by building (creating) resillience, but so far it seems to revolve around standardisation of laws, regulations and the expectations of the proletariat. I other words, there will be peace in the access-controlled streets, because there exists no “greener grass” anywhere to aspire to. The approved few will be safe, and no disaster anywhere to remember when they arrive at a new place to plunder.
It is one of those times in life I hope I am totally wrong…

walterr070
December 26, 2022 3:33 pm

Will the next El Niño be really big similar to 2015/2016 or 1997/1998? Or will it be like 2002/2003 or 2009/2010?

RickWill
Reply to  walterr070
December 26, 2022 3:53 pm

Probably not the next one because the Nino34 region is at the bottom of its 11 year cycle. The next El Nino will be near the bottom of the cycle.

The one after that will be closer to the peak of the 11 year cycle and could outdo 2016.

Chris Hanley
December 26, 2022 3:38 pm

… a cooling La Niña event … will be short-lived and not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere

If they mean CO2 has never been more abundant that statement is patently false, in fact the reverse is closer to the truth.
Dr Roy Spencer has attributed half the 21st century warming to El Niño .

Last edited 1 month ago by Chris Hanley
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Chris Hanley
December 27, 2022 4:26 am

Only half?

BurlHenry
Reply to  Chris Hanley
December 27, 2022 12:33 pm

Chris Hanley:

All El Ninos are temporary events, and should never be used in assessing how much global warming has actually occurred.

Giving_Cat
December 26, 2022 3:46 pm

Fearless prediction.

The Buffalo Blizzard of ’22. Warmer climate kept the Great Lakes warmer longer. This led to more severe lake effect snow. Climate deaths!

RickWill
Reply to  Giving_Cat
December 26, 2022 3:58 pm

And it is true.

The logical extension is that warmer oceans in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to more “ocean effect” increasing snow fall. In fact the snow fall on both Greenland and Iceland, where the “ocean effect” is most significant are already accumulating permanent ice extent.

And the NH is only 1000 years into a summer warming trend. There is 11,000 years to go. Extrapolate the “ocean effect” a few thousands years and there ends up a lot of ice over a lot more land. That is known as glaciation. It has only just started.

Richard M
Reply to  Giving_Cat
December 26, 2022 4:05 pm

Tough to push that one since there was a bigger storm in 1977.

rah
Reply to  Richard M
December 27, 2022 8:32 am

Yea, but unlike in times past, looters were out in droves in the storm. They should be shot on sight IMO.

Phil.
Reply to  Richard M
December 27, 2022 1:09 pm

But that storm was the result of snow being blown off the frozen lake surface onto the land, not lake effect snow.

John Shewchuk
December 26, 2022 4:04 pm

Funny how the U.N. and IPCC lap-dogs continue to fail to recognize the Feynman sunspot, multi-decadal cooling trend.

It doesnot add up
December 26, 2022 4:05 pm

Perhaps my favourite chapter of Charles Mackay’s Extraodinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is this:

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24518-h.htm#prophecies

An excerpt:

During the great plague of London, in 1665, the people listened with similar avidity to the predictions of quacks and fanatics. Defoe says, that at that time the people were more addicted to prophecies and astronomical conjurations, dreams, and old wives’ tales than ever they were before or since. Almanacs, and their predictions, frightened them terribly. Even the year before the plague broke out, they were greatly alarmed by the comet which then appeared, and anticipated that famine, pestilence, or fire would follow. Enthusiasts, while yet the disease had made but little progress, ran about the streets, predicting that in a few days London would be destroyed.
A still more singular instance of the faith in predictions occurred in London in the year 1524. The city swarmed at that time with fortune-tellers and astrologers, who were consulted daily by people of every class in society on the secrets of futurity. As early as the month of June 1523, several of them concurred in predicting that, on the 1st day of February 1524, the waters of the Thames would swell to such a height as to overflow the whole city of London, and wash away ten thousand houses. The prophecy met implicit belief. It was reiterated with the utmost confidence month after month, until so much alarm was excited that many families packed up their goods, and removed into Kent and Essex. As the time drew nigh, the number of these emigrants increased. In January, droves of workmen might be seen, followed by their wives and children, trudging on foot to the villages within fifteen or twenty miles, to await the catastrophe. People of a higher class were also to be seen in wagons and other vehicles bound on a similar errand. By the middle of January, at least twenty thousand persons had quitted the doomed city, leaving nothing but the bare walls of their homes to be swept away by the impending floods. Many of the richer sort took up their abode on the heights of Highgate, Hampstead, and Blackheath; and some erected tents as far away as Waltham Abbey on the north, and Croydon on the south of the Thames. Bolton, the prior of St. Bartholomew’s, was so alarmed, that he erected, at a very great expense, a sort of fortress at Harrow-on-the-Hill, which he stocked with provisions for two months. On the 24th of January, a week before the awful day which was to see the destruction of London, he removed thither, with the brethren and officers of the priory and all his household. A number of boats were conveyed in wagons to his fortress, furnished abundantly with expert rowers, in case the flood, reaching so high as Harrow, should force them to go farther for a resting-place. Many wealthy citizens prayed to share his retreat; but the prior, with a prudent forethought, admitted only his personal friends, and those who brought stores of eatables for the blockade.
At last the morn, big with the fate of London, appeared in the east. The wondering crowds were astir at an early hour to watch the rising of the waters. The inundation, it was predicted, would be gradual, not sudden; so that they expected to have plenty of time to escape as soon as they saw the bosom of old Thames heave beyond the usual mark. But the majority were too much alarmed to trust to this, and thought themselves safer ten or twenty miles off. The Thames, unmindful of the foolish crowds upon its banks, flowed on quietly as of yore. The tide ebbed at its usual hour, flowed to its usual height, and then ebbed again, just as if twenty astrologers had not pledged their words to the contrary. Blank were their faces as evening approached, and as blank grew the faces of the citizens to think that they had made such fools of themselves. At last night set in, and the obstinate river would not lift its waters to sweep away even one house out of the ten thousand. Still, however, the people were afraid to go to sleep. Many hundreds remained up till dawn of the next day, lest the deluge should come upon them like a thief in the night.
On the morrow, it was seriously discussed whether it would not be advisable to duck the false prophets in the river. Luckily for them, they thought of an expedient which allayed the popular fury. They asserted that, by an error (a very slight one,) of a little figure, they had fixed the date of this awful inundation a whole century too early. The stars were right after all, and they, erring mortals, were wrong. The present generation of cockneys was safe, and London would be washed away, not in 1524, but in 1624. At this announcement, Bolton the prior dismantled his fortress, and the weary emigrants came back.

Ring any bells?

Scissor
Reply to  It doesnot add up
December 26, 2022 4:32 pm

Interestingly, the Great London Fire was in 1666.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Scissor
December 26, 2022 4:48 pm

And the Dutch set fire to the Navy in Chatham in 1667.

‘ The Dutch in the Medway 1664-1672 ‘ – Rudyard Kipling 

If wars were won by feasting,
Or victory by song,
Or safety found in sleeping sound,
How England would be strong!
But honour and dominion
Are not maintained so.
They’re only got by sword and shot,
And this the Dutchmen know!

The moneys that should feed us
You spend on your delight,
How can you then have sailor-men
To aid you in your fight?
Our fish and cheese are rotten,
Which makes the scurvy grow–
We cannot serve you if we starve,
And this the Dutchmen know!

Our ships in every harbour
Be neither whole nor sound,
And, when we seek to mend a leak,
No oakum can be found;
Or, if it is, the caulkers,
And carpenters also,
For lack of pay have gone away,
And this the Dutchmen know!

Mere powder, guns, and bullets,
We scarce can get at all;
Their price was spent in merriment
And revel at Whitehall,
While we in tattered doublets
From ship to ship must row,
Beseeching friends for odds and ends–
And this the Dutchmen know!

No King will heed our warnings,
No Court will pay our claims–
Our King and Court for their disport
Do sell the very Thames!
For, now De Ruyter’s topsails
Off naked Chatham show,
We dare not meet him with our fleet–
And this the Dutchmen know !

More rhyming history.

Last edited 1 month ago by It doesnot add up
Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  It doesnot add up
December 27, 2022 11:04 am

A navy ran on a shoestring. Rings a bell?

unfortunately contemporary Dutchmen know such things not. Have all gone woke. Lucky for the English.

rah
Reply to  Scissor
December 27, 2022 9:36 am

Actually there were multiple great fires in London and they continued until dwellings with thatched roofs became a rarity within the city limits.

That is according to a detailed history of London I listened to on an audiobook. It was over 11 hours long.

Last edited 1 month ago by rah
Richard M
Reply to  It doesnot add up
December 26, 2022 4:44 pm

Well, 2024 is just around the corner and just off by a half millennia.

Dodgy Geezer
December 26, 2022 4:10 pm

Now is the time for enterprising climatologists to develop a theoretical method for CO2 to cause global cooling, and lead the queue for an entirely new justification for vast sums of money to be spent….

Mike
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
December 26, 2022 4:41 pm

More wobbly polar vortex comes to mind. The same wobblyness that was earlier said to have been caused by cooling back in the 70s.
Truth is, they are pulling these theories from where the sun don’t shine.

Richard M
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
December 26, 2022 4:47 pm

Good idea to have one in their back pocket as the politicians will throw them under the bus in a New York nano-minute.

antigtiff
December 26, 2022 4:50 pm

Are the utility companies asking EV owners to not recharge the vehicles as much during the extreme cold?

Last edited 1 month ago by antigtiff
bnice2000
December 26, 2022 5:14 pm

” basic global observing system”

They should remember that USCRN in the US stopped the US from warming. 😉

Petit-Barde
December 26, 2022 5:33 pm

While the persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 will not be the warmest year on record”

So they admit that ENSO has an impact on global temperatures thus contradicting Mann who claims the opposite.
Those fraudsters have been lying so many times that they can’t no more make any claim which they didn’t already contradicted.

BTW, if the La Niña have such an effect on global temperatures then the El Niño must have one too, right ? And what’s the link with CO2 ?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Petit-Barde
December 27, 2022 4:36 am

“And what’s the link with CO2 ?”

Good question.

Peta of Newark
December 26, 2022 6:47 pm

UK Met Office has it sussed, as they often do.

Headline:Met Office forecasts 2023 will be hotter than 2022
BBC

(This is one of their forecasts following from the ‘hot dry summer‘ they predicted a few years ago. I forget when, easily 10+ years now.

There was perfectly no science behind their forecast apart from ‘Gambler’s Thinking’ – their logic stated that because UK had endured a succession of miserable wet summers, The Next One was surely going to be warm and dry;
It wasn’t.
They’ve re-hashed the exact same words in the above forecast.
Bookmark it everyone.

Last edited 1 month ago by Peta of Newark
Sparko
December 26, 2022 11:34 pm

So basically they’re saying that El Ninos cause warming. They should give Bob Tilsdale a Nobel prize

Bob Weber
Reply to  Sparko
December 27, 2022 6:03 am

Please give Ian Wilson the prize for that, who figured it out first in 2011:

comment image

Conclusions

“1. The ratio of the impact of El Ninos to the impact of La Ninas upon climate can be monitored over multi-decadal time scales using the cumulative MEI.

2. The cumulative MEI shows that since roughly 1880 there have been four main climate epochs, each 30 years long. There are have been two 30 year periods of cooling (i.e. from 1886 to 1915, and from 1946 to 1975) and two 30 year peiods of heating (i.e. from 1916 to 1945, and from 1976 to 2005).

3. Periods of warming occur whenever the impact of El Ninos exceeds the impact of La Ninas. Periods of cooling occur whenever the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of El Ninos.”

Wilson’s work inspired me to represent the significant long term integrated MEI effect on SST:

comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by Bob Weber
Mark BLR
Reply to  Bob Weber
December 28, 2022 9:44 am

… who figured it out first in 2011

I am a very “visual” person, who tends to be attracted to graphs (AKA “pretty pictures”) rather than reams of text.

Your first graph has an end-date of 2005, and your second of 2009.
NB : (2005 + 2009) / 2 = 2007 …

You may be astonished to discover that measurements, and “reanalyses”, of SST have continued over the last 13 years or so, and that the HadSST3 dataset has been “honourably retired” and replaced with HadSST4 instead.

Plotting HadSST4 against a cumulative (/ integrated) MEI calculation gives the graph attached below.

.
.
.

You are Ben Santer, and I claim my $5.

Data sources

HadSST4 (monthly) :
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/data/download.html

MEI (V2, from 1979, under the “MEI.v2 Values” tab) :
https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

MEI (“.old”, from 1950 to 2018, in the “MEI data access and publications” section near the bottom of the webpage) :https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.old/

HadSST4-vs-MEI_1950-2022.png
BurlHenry
Reply to  Sparko
December 27, 2022 12:44 pm

Sparko:

?? He says they cause cooling

Pat from Kerbob
December 27, 2022 12:49 am

Why would 2022 automatically be the warmest ever when “they” said that 2021 was only the 7th warmest ever?
All bs

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 27, 2022 12:49 am

An “atmospheric river” is reaching California that will bring unusually heavy snowfall to the mountains. Moving around could be dangerous.
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Very heavy precipitation in California proves that in winter it is the pattern of the stratospheric polar vortex that governs the circulation and weather, not La Nina. Temperature in degrees Celsius.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
December 27, 2022 1:04 am

Frosty air will remain in the northwest of the US and in the east.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
December 27, 2022 2:26 am

Lake effect in the state of New York on December 27.
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Last edited 1 month ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
TheFinalNail
December 27, 2022 2:27 am

Maybe they were worried that reminding people how cold it is might confuse their pitch for more “investment” to monitor global warming.

There’s always a danger in extrapolationg regional conditions on a global scale. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole has seen well above average warmth right throughout the recent North American cold spell. For example, today, Tuesday 27th Dec, it is estimated to be +0.74 °C above 1979-2000 average for this date.Large areas of Europe, Asia and North Africa are seeing much warmer than usual conditions for the time of year.

La Niña conditions have an acknowledged cooling impact on global average temperatures. According to NOAA’s ENSO Index, La Niña or neutral conditions have prevailed since the summer of 2020, with 2021 and 2022 getting progressively ‘colder’. Despite this, each of these years has been amongst the warmest on record globally, whether you use surface or satellite data. In all cases, it looks likely that 2022 will be warmer than 2021, despite scoring a lower (colder) ENSO Index value.
So it seems very likely that once El Niño conditions recur, whenever that may be, then even warmer and perhaps record breaking global temperatures will follow. You may be unwise to bet against it.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  TheFinalNail
December 27, 2022 2:35 am

I advise you to stick to the global sea surface temperature, because it shows the truth about La Niña’s effect on temperature. 
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Hivemind
Reply to  TheFinalNail
December 27, 2022 8:26 pm

You would be unwise to bet that the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology would publish the honest truth. Everything will be fraudulently homogenised to create a scary warming trend.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Hivemind
December 28, 2022 1:31 am

It’s every global data set, satellite or surface (including UAH). All show warming post 1998.

SteveG
December 27, 2022 2:29 am

Don’t tell me the WMO has been playing in their play pen with their models again!?

gezza1298
December 27, 2022 3:18 am

No, they are weather-related disasters not climate ones. And in the same way, ENSO is a weather event and not climate.

The clowns at the UK Met Office have forecast that next year will be the hottest the planet has ever seen because La Nina will end. However, the MetO are not noted for the accuracy of their predictions and, as far as I am aware, nobody seems to be able to provide ENSO forecasts of any accuracy despite all the science being ‘settled’.

Tom Abbott
December 27, 2022 4:00 am

From the article: “From extreme floods to heat and drought, weather and climate-related disasters have affected millions and cost billions this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday, describing the “tell-tale signs and impacts” of intensified climate change.”

There is no evidence of “intensified climate change”. This is “business as usual” where it concerns the Earth’s weather. Earth’s weather IS extreme weather.

These alarmists tryng to convince us there is something they can do to change the way the weather unfolds is a joke and a lie.

From the article: “While the persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 will not be the warmest year on record, its cooling impact will be short-lived and not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.”

So you claim, with no supporting evidence. Alarmists are infamous for making claims that turn out not to be true. La Nina is messing up their CO2 delusions, isn’t it.

Or maybe it is the cyclical nature of the Earth’s climate (Mother Nature) that’s doing it: Warms for a few decades, and then cools for a few decades. Of course it wouldn’t cool for a few decades if CO2 were the driving force, so we shall see if temperatures climb or fall in the future.

Currently, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is climbing, yet the temperatures are cooling. It’s not looking good for the Alarmist Team.

We can count on the Alarmist Team to tell us it will start warming any day now. That’s what they are doing with the “wait until La Nina is over” claim. Whether it warms or not, is another question.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 27, 2022 6:21 am

Currently, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is climbing, yet the temperatures are cooling. It’s not looking good for the Alarmist Team.

I think the same argument was made about temperatures following the 1998 El Niño, after which global temperatures fell, relative to that high, for a few years. However, the long term warming trend remained fairly constant.

The same is now being said of 2016 and for the same reasons. History seems destined to repeat itself.

Hivemind
Reply to  TheFinalNail
December 27, 2022 8:31 pm

It’s true that the long-term warming trend continued, but that was only because of the (truly heroic) efforts of the BOM, Met Office and NOAO to manipulate and outright falsify their records to create said trend.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Hivemind
December 28, 2022 1:36 am

I take it NASA, Berkeley Earth and the Japenese Met Agency are also in on the big conspiracy? How about UAH? These data sets all show statistically significant long-term global warming trends. What’s the aim of this conspiracy, by the way? World domination by a cabal of meteorologists?

JC
December 27, 2022 6:13 am

Climate Change was foisted into the popular vernacular during the pause after the solar minimum of the 23rd SC. The rumblings of “Global Warming” returning to push “Climate change” into the background of popular vernacular maybe shorted lived especially if a new post SC minimum pause lasts long enough to reach back and hold hands with the previous pause. I hope this does not happen I prefer warming.

Hivemind
Reply to  JC
December 27, 2022 8:32 pm

To paraphrase, “I’ve been cold, and I’ve been warm. Trust me, warm is better”.

ATheoK
December 27, 2022 6:54 am

“This year we have faced several dramatic weather disasters which claimed far too many lives and livelihoods and undermined health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure”, said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.

While the persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 will not be the warmest year on record, its cooling impact will be short-lived and not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.”

Leftist desperation.
Perhaps we can now call the ‘Gore effect’ to the ‘Taalas effect’ as weather operates chaotically in spite of WMO alarmism.

scvblwxq
December 27, 2022 8:12 am

Very few climate reports mention that the geologic climate that the Earth is in is a 2.588 million-year ice age named the Quaternary Glaciation(fourth ice age), in a warm interglacial period that usually lasts about 10,000 years(it’s been 11,700 years). 11% of the Earth is frozen permafrost and there are still over 200,000 glaciers. The geological climate of the Earth won’t change from the ice age it is in until all the natural ice on Earth melts.

Ed Zuiderwijk
December 27, 2022 8:59 am

Back in the 1970ies I laid my hand on a little booklet ‘secrets of the earth’. It was a collection of essays on things we didn’t know about the workings of our planet. Factional, no fancy theories. One was about the El Nino phenomenon. First documented by Jesuit priests in Peru in the 16th century. Curiously the writer suggested that scientist should hurry in studying it because it ‘appeared to be on the way out’. They got that one wrong as we know. However, the crux of the report was the typically 7 years between El Nino events in the past, each lasting about a year. That means that historically the La Nina phase could be anything up to 6 years. We may have a long wait before this one is done.

Steve Case
December 27, 2022 9:31 am

From the link to the story

     “In East Africa, rainfall has been below average throughout four
     consecutive wet seasons.”

So how much below average were they? Cue the standard photo of dry river beds and cattle skulls. OK, no dead cows, but that’s the usual norm.

Kenya’s annual precipitation is between 30 and 50 inches Source so if those four years were over 30 but less than 40 inches … or were maybe 29 inches. It’s really difficult to know when the story doesn’t provide any numbers.

     “Sea levels, which have doubled since 1993…”

What was the number in 1993 that was doubled? The statement makes no sense.

 

Hivemind
Reply to  Steve Case
December 27, 2022 8:37 pm

I see that you’ve spotted the usual yellow dog journalism at work. Scare the bejeezus out of everybody with extremely selective quoting of facts.

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 27, 2022 11:09 am

An unusually wide atmospheric river is approaching Los Angeles.
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son of mulder
December 27, 2022 1:19 pm

Here’s how it works. The Ice Bomb in Buffalo is a direct result of human induced climate change destabilising the polar vortex. Had that not happened it would have been human induced climate change that caused the unseasonably warm temperatures in Buffalo.

Last edited 1 month ago by son of mulder
scvblwxq
Reply to  son of mulder
December 31, 2022 12:26 pm

The Earth will be in this 2.588 million-year ice age named the Quaternary Glacial until all naturally melts. We are in a warm interglacial period between glacial periods, but it is still not warm enough to melt the 11% of the Earth that is permafrost or all of the glaciers and other ice and snow.

scvblwxq
Reply to  scvblwxq
December 31, 2022 12:29 pm

Most of the areas outside of the tropics are too cold to live in during the winter without technologies like clothes, shoes, coats, buildings, heating, and the like.

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 28, 2022 10:52 am
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