The Week That Was: 2021-10-02 (October 2, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool. – by George Orwell
Number of the Week: 0.14 °C per Decade
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Reality: As TWTW has emphasized, there is no climate crisis and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the gas of life. All green living things on earth need it to produce food through photosynthesis. and all animal life depends directly, or indirectly, on plant life. Thus, on this planet, life we generally recognize it depends on CO2. Without it, the planet would be barren of most life. Further, as John Tyndall showed in his laboratory experiments starting in 1859, the greenhouse effect prevents the land masses on the planet from going a deep freeze at night, killing all growing plants. Without carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect, humans would not be seeking life on other planets, because humanity would not exist.
Decades of laboratory experiments have shown have verified the work of Tyndall and that greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide is self-limiting in that the effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas diminishes rapidly with concentrations above 100 parts per million in volume (100 ppm). It has never been that low. Below 280 ppm many plants could not survive.
In 1979 the National Research Council issued the famed Charney Report, claiming that the modest warming occurring from CO2, well within natural variation, would be greatly amplified by a greater warming from an increase in water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas. The report offered no physical evidence substantiating this speculation. Yet, the speculation was adopted by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and has remained in its six Assessment Reports.
Since then, space age technology has given researchers the ability to measure what is occurring in the atmosphere in temperature trends, changing greenhouse gases, and changing greenhouse effect. There is no dangerous warming occurring from changing greenhouse gases. The UN IPCCC and other claiming dangerous warming, ignore this physical evidence. Instead, they invent ever more imaginative claims that are not supported by physical evidence to hide their inability show a dangerous atmospheric warming from greenhouse gases.
For those who look beyond the hollow claims of the UN IPCC and its government followers, to include many research institutions in the US, the actual physical evidence is extremely shallow. Computer models that are not validated with physical evidence are not physical evidence; increasing urban temperatures are physical evidence of increasing urbanization, not increasing greenhouse effect; and the greening of the earth from flourishing plant are physical evidence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, not increasing warming from the greenhouse effect.
IPCC’s current Summary for Policymakers of its Sixth Assessment Report, AR6, SPM, 2021, pulled a trick like what it did in the second assessment report which earned the criticism of the distinguished physicists Frederick Seitz, who was for ten years the director of the National Academy of Sciences. In the Second Assessment Report (SAR) IPCC inserted, without physical evidence, the hot spot, a pronounced warming of the atmosphere over the tropics which no one has been above to find. In the SPM of AR6 the IPCC inserted a 2000-year hockey-stick, claiming that since year 1, the temperatures have been roughly stable, then shot up with the industrial revolution, starting about 1850.
The SPM of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC featured a hockey-stick that started about the year 1,000 AD with an abrupt increase in temperatures starting about 1850. Statisticians Ross McKitrick and Steve McIntyre destroyed it by showing the methods used produced hockey-sticks from random numbers.
As discussed in the previous several TWTW, statistician Steve McIntyre has traced the history of this hockey-stick to study known as PAGES2k from a group in Bern Switzerland. Little of what is offered as evidence dates back 2000 years, and that which goes back 2000 years does not show a hockey-stick.
Yet many Western governments have embraced these reports in policies to abandon the use of fossil fuels, that will punish their citizens. Instead of reliable electricity from fossil fuels, these policies embrace unreliable electricity from wind and solar. Examination for consistent generation show these sources have only one thing that can be reliable – they fail frequently. Solar fails nightly, and wind fails sporadically, sometimes for days. Modern civilization and modern manufacturing require reliable electricity 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Politicians in these Western countries are establishing policies that will destroy modern civilization. Other pumped hydro-storage there are no means available to store electricity on a utility scale. And the locations were pumped hydro-storage are successful use reliable nuclear or fossil fuel plants for replenishment. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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The China Card: As discussed in the last several TWTWs, one of the most remarkable developments over the past 30 years is the remarkable drop in world extreme poverty, mostly occurring in China and the Far East. Those living in extreme poverty, defined as a purchasing power of $1.90 US per day in local purchasing power, went from almost 40% of the world’s population (1.9 billion) to less than 9% (650 million) despite an increase in population of over 2 billion. Much of this occurred thanks to the use of fossil fuels. Today, by far, China is the greatest emitter of CO2, with emissions estimated to be almost as much as the rest of the world combined.
Yet many Western leaders, embracing the false claims and projections of the IPCC, delude themselves into believing they can convince China to return to is old ways. Although he calls CO2 a pollutant, which it is not, writing for the Daily Mail, has an unusually good essay on how deluded this view is. Rose states (edited by Paul Homewood):
“Even though it promised last week to stop building coal power stations abroad, China continues to do just that at home. Last year, its coal-powered capacity rose by 38 gigawatts, while the rest of the world cut capacity by 17 gigawatts.
“China has a further 105 gigawatts of new coal capacity in the construction pipeline — more than the entire generating capacity of the UK from all sources, including nuclear and renewables.”
TWTW adds that China’s use of coal is not an obsession but a practical acknowledgement of coal’s importance for reliable electricity and prosperity. CO2 is not dirty or polluting. The true pollutants from coal-fired power plants can be removed, as they are from US plants. Forty years ago, the US was seriously exploring coal gasification in the belief that it would soon run out of oil and natural gas. The obsession is with those who demand China end use of coal because they do not understand how little CO2 is increasing atmospheric temperatures
Rose goes on to explain that even the most ardent advocates of abolishing CO2 emissions are reluctant to address China:
Even the eco-protesters blocking our motorways pay no attention to the fact China is pumping out pollution on an unprecedented scale.
Last week, when a BBC reporter asked the group that spawned them, Extinction Rebellion, why they were not demonstrating outside the Chinese embassy, he was accused of ‘perpetuating anti-Chinese racist stereotypes’.
Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, co-chair of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which has members in 20 countries, told me this week that ‘governments across the free world have been utterly supine’.
He added: ‘China may say their emissions will peak by 2030 but meanwhile they are building all the new coal-fired power stations they need, to do whatever they please.
‘Yet they are being let off the hook while other countries are being asked to step up to measures that will have an incalculable economic impact. China will watch while we collapse our economies and they become all-powerful.’
Gary Smith, general secretary of the GMB union, thousands of whose members have lost their jobs to Chinese competitors, puts it more succinctly: ‘We are importing virtue and exporting jobs.’
Let us look at how emissions compare with Western countries. China’s total emissions have far outstripped America’s. Indeed, they amount to more than the rest of the developed world put together — although admittedly they are still lower by one measure: America still emits more per head of population.
However, that ceased to be true of Britain in 2014 — and by 2018 China was well ahead, with 6.84 tonnes of CO2 emitted per capita, against 5.3 tonnes in Britain. To appreciate how fast China’s economy and emissions have grown, consider that in 1990 we emitted 9.6 tonnes per head and China just 1.84 tonnes.
Since 2018, our emissions have continued to fall while China’s have increased. In total, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says, they have risen in China by 365 per cent since 1990. In the same period, Britain’s fell by 35 per cent.
See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Misleading Parliament: The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) issued a report that UK’s Climate Change Committee grossly mislead Parliament over the costs of the UK for achieving net zero carbon emissions. The report stated:
“* Highly optimistic assumptions about EV costs have been called into question by the actual development of EV costs since the CCC advised Parliament
“* Committee on Climate Change spreadsheets only revealed after 2-year freedom of information campaign
“* Costs could be £60,000 per household higher than the CCC estimates that MPs used when they were considering Net Zero legislation
“The Climate Change Committee (CCC) told MPs that British households and businesses would face only a modest cost for reaching Net Zero emissions in 2050, but analysis of their financial models by the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) shows that key assumptions were not credible even at the time the report was published.”
Electric vehicles are only a small part of the problem. No one knows how much it will cost to build adequate storage for electricity required for zero carbon dioxide emissions. Yet politicians riding a wave of imaginary technology in the future don’t care. As with committing troops into war, it difficult to hold politicians for wrongful actions. The same problems apply to many Western countries. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Censorship: The Copernicus Gatekeepers of Truth objected to a paper by Pascal Richet after it had been published. According to Kenneth richard of the No Tricks Zone:
“As an Earth scientist (geochemist and thermodynamicist) commenting on the CO2 ice core data, he is claimed to have improperly benefitted from a too-friendly peer-review process because 3 of the reviewers allegedly “have ties to industry benefitting from the manuscript conclusions.” (What ‘benefit’ this is remains unspecified.)”
Not only is the action reprehensible, but the name of the organization engaged in censorship is reprehensible. During his lifetime, Copernicus did not wish to publish his findings that the earth circled the sun for fear of censorship. Now, this organization is using his name for censorship? See links under Censorship.
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Understanding Underwater Color: Like photos of industrial chimneys emitting steam, colored dark accompanying claims of invisible CO2 causing dangerous global warming, photos of by “bleached” corals may be deceptive. Jennifer Marohasy explains why: “wavelengths in the blue part of the visible light spectrum penetrate water to some few metres, while all the wavelengths in the red part of the spectrum are absorbed by 5 metres under the water.” So deep, blue waters are the result of water filtering out certain wavelengths with depth of the water. Further, often what appears to be ‘bleached” corals may be naturally beige. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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It’s Not the Average Which Counts: John Robson discusses an issue that is often used by wind promoters which confuses the public: with erratic generation of wind power, average is largely meaningless. Robson writes:
“Behind most economic mistakes is some kind of math error, technical or intuitive. And it’s certainly true of the energy crisis sweeping Britain and Europe. Terry Etam writes in BOE Report that enthusiasts for alternative energy in Britain were hypnotized by the average output of wind farms and did not consider the old joke about the statistician who ‘drowned because he forded a river that was only three feet deep, on average’. They really forgot, or chose to ignore, that wind blows hard on some days and not at all on others, even though demand exists on both. Which makes you wonder what else they don’t know.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning European Green.
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Another Look at the China Problem: Many commentators are optimistically claiming China will reduce CO2 emissions stating, stating recent are an example. Australian Jo Nova has a different view. She writes:
“China used to import $14 billion dollars worth of coal from Australia. Then Australia asked for an investigation into the origin of Covid-19 and to show how much it cared about the truth the communist party launched a trade war which left some 70 container ships with 1,400 crew languishing for months off China. There are rumours China may only have a couple of weeks of coal stockpiled. Perhaps the latest Chinese power cuts could force it to import Australian coal again before the winter chill really strikes?” See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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The World’s Biggest: Built by Climeworks the world’s biggest carbon dioxide removal plant has opened in Iceland. It will remove about 3 seconds of the world’s emission of CO2. The Washington Post published:
“At the moment, the costs are high: about $600 to $800 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, [co-founder] Gebald said, far from the levels around $100 to $150 per ton that are necessary to turn a profit without the help of any government subsidies. The costs reflect both the hand-hewn nature of the technology — Climeworks’ installations are mostly built by hand for now, not through automation — and also the large amounts of energy needed to power the CO2 capture process.”
“The Orca installation was built in Iceland both because the tiny island nation has ample supplies of climate-friendly geothermal energy as well as just the right underground geology to make it easy to capture carbon.”
See links under Below the Bottom Line.
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14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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Number of the Week: 0.14 °C per Decade: The University of Alabama – Huntsville has its monthly atmospheric temperature report for the bulk atmosphere. The linear trend since January 1979 remains at 0.14 °C per Decade. This is hardly cause for drastic action to suppress CO2 emissions.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Activists Get A Recent Paper That Threatens Climate Alarm Narratives Removed From Journal
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 30, 2021
Link to paper: The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological reappraisal of ice-core messages
By Pascal Richet, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
Documentary Review: Corporate Cronyism Makes Right To Protest Wind Projects A Crime In Sweden
By P Gosselin, From Headwind 21, a documentary review, Kalte Sonne, No Tricks Zone, Sep 28, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Committee misled Parliament about the cost of Net Zero
Press Release, GWPF, Sep 26, 2021
Energy poverty is not an option for India’s 360 million poor
By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Sep 22, 2021
Bleached from a Distance
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2021
Climate Alarmist Claim Fact Checks
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Sep 27, 2021
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/
From Covid to Climate, Take Nobody’s Word for It — Including the ‘Experts’
By Gordon J. Fulks, Real Clear Energy, September 29, 2021
The ‘Science’ of Climate Change
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Sep 25, 2021
Wind over math
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy
Earth Is Warmer Than It’s Been in 125,000 Years
A landmark assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change says greenhouse gases are unequivocally driving extreme weather, but nations can still prevent the worst impacts
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature Magazine, Via Scientific American, August 9, 2021
Link to the report: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
Link to: Summary for Policymakers
Top climate summit official on reconciliation bill: It’s important to ‘show progress’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 24, 2021
“Whether it’s the U.S. or any other country, being able to show progress domestically is, of course … going to be important in terms of them encouraging others to do the same,” Alok Sharma, the president of the COP26 United Nations climate change conference, told reporters.
[SEPP Comment: The UN official is from the Maldives, that held cabinet meetings underwater for propaganda purposes. Will he hold the COP 26 meeting in Glasgow underwater?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Andrew Dessler: Going Downstream with Climate Alarmism (economics, public policy ahead)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 30, 2021
“’I realize lots of people don’t like government regulation, but the alternative is an out-of-control climate.’ (A. Dessler: March 23, 2019)”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
THE PODIUM | Will climate crusade eclipse the poor?
By Chris Wright, Colorado Politics, Sep 22, 2021
“Chris Wright is the chairman and CEO of Liberty Oilfield Services.”
The Emperor Penguin Extinction Scam & Sea Ice Dynamics
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 1, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Video As known populations increase, extinction become more possible?]
Boris Johnson Bets on Wind
Britain’s energy crisis has been a decade in the making.
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear energy, September 30, 2021
“More remarkable than the British prime minister’s lack of self-awareness is the fairy tale that he told about Britain becoming the Saudi Arabia of wind and inviting China to see how Britain was faring without coal.”
Because it worked so well the last time
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
“And what did anyone think was going to happen? Seriously. Citizens should be demanding answers. Even in a country like Canada, where so far the big problem is gas costing $1.35 a litre or more, we need to insist that politicians give a straightforward answer to the question ‘Did you realize this situation would cause hardship when you created it on purpose?’”
Allysia Finley: Climate policy meets cold reality in Europe
By Allysia Finley, WSJ, Via GWPF, Sep 28, 2021
Access to fossil fuels decides life and death in Sub-Saharan Africa
By Vijay Javarai, BPR, Sep 27, 2021
Change in US Administrations
President Biden’s ‘Green’ Obsession Is Already a Disaster
By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy September 29, 2021
Joe Biden’s Policies Increase U.S. Dependence on China
Domestic rare-earth mining is being thwarted by green regulations.
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, September 23, 2021
Green gold rush — Part 2: Some big numbers
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 24, 2021
Plastics industry lashes out at ‘regressive’ Democratic tax plan
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Sep 26, 2021
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
How CO2 Saves the Earth: Greenhouse Gas have Vital Warming & Cooling Effects
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Sep 25, 2021
Video, The benefits of the greenhouse effect.
Higher CO2 levels responsible for ‘greening’ Earth
By Staff, ICECAP, Sep 26, 2021
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/higher_co2_levels_responsible_for_greening_earth/
We Are CO2
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 30, 2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The Green Agenda meets The Energy Crisis (just in time for COP 26)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 1, 2021
“Fossil-Free” Energy: India’s Aluminum Industry In Peril
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Sep 28, 2021
Cities go dark as China cuts power to meet climate targets
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Sep 28, 2021
China Suffers Widespread Power Blackout Chaos as Strict Climate Targets Bite
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 28, 2021
“What can I say? If China, the world centre for manufacturing solar panels and wind turbine components, can not switch off their fossil fuel plants without chaos and massive power supply disruption, there is no chance anyone else can make it work.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Science of Climate Change
International Journal of Science and Philosophy, August 2021
Call for Papers
The journal is published by Klimarealistene* in Norway with an editorial board consisting of members of the Scientific Council of Klimarealistene (Climate Realists)
Submit papers to scc@klimarealistene.com.
David Rose Exposes China’s Obsession With Coal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2021
NASA satellites show how clouds respond to Arctic sea ice change
By Roberto Molar, NASA, Sep 23, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Arctic Cloud Response to a Perturbation in Sea Ice Concentration: The North Water Polynya
By Emily E. Monroe, Patrick C. Taylor, Linette N. Boisvert, JGR Atmospheres, Aug 3, 2021
From the abstract: “Our results show that during the event [a polynya], (a) low-cloud cover is 10%–33% larger over the polynya than nearby sea ice, (b) cloud liquid water content is up to 400% larger over the polynya than nearby sea ice, and (c) the surface cloud radiative effect is 18 W m−2 larger over the polynya than nearby sea ice. Our results provide evidence that the low-cloud response during a polynya is a positive feedback lengthening the event.”
Can We Really Model Climate Change?
By Digby Macdonald, The Epoch Times, Sep 27, 2021
“Two great philosophies exist with respect to prediction: empiricism, which is the philosophy that everything that we can ever know we must have experienced; and determinism, which posits that we can predict the future from the past upon the basis of the known physical laws (“Laws of Nature”).”
[SEPP Comment: Outlines conditions whereby, perhaps, climate models may become useful for short-term (30-year) prediction.]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Crisis? What crisis?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
As Melanie Phillips erupted, “Ye gods! How can such an intelligent man be so bone-headedly…dumb?? It’s Boris Johnson who needs to understand that the policy he is promoting of Net Zero carbon emissions is leading his country and the world off the edge of an economic and social cliff.” But of course a certain type of stupidity requires a powerful intelligence to perform the required mental gymnastics. As Orwell put it, “One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.”
New York City’s Plan to Combat Extreme Weather
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Sep 30, 2021
Link to: The New Normal: Combatting Storm-Related Extreme Weather in New York City
By Staff, Common Cause: Working with Partners in Government, 2021
“Climate change is a public health, environmental and racial justice priority in New York City.”
[SEPP Comment: The 1938 hurricane that killed hundreds in Long Island was not part of the “new normal” that NYC must prepare for but the 2017 Hurricane Maria that hit Porto Rico is?]
Models v. Observations
Models vs observations, water vapour edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
Link to paper: Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations
By Benjamin D. Santer, Journal of Climate, June 29, 2021
Link to rebuttal: Biased Media Reporting on the New Santer et al. Study Regarding Satellite Tropospheric Temperature Trends
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 9, 2021
From article: “Aha, you say, the famous missing hotspot. Yes indeed, and the authors of this study acknowledge upfront that people have been looking for the missing warming for 20 years now. The contribution of this new paper was to examine how warming in models correlates with increasing levels of water vapor, compared to how warming and water vapor correlate in the real world. The result was that for the observed amount of extra water vapor the models say there ought to have been a lot more warming.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Confirmed – all 5 global temperature anomaly measurement systems reject NOAA’s July 2021 “hottest month ever” hype
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 1, 2021
[SEPP Comment: There is no excuse for NOAA’s incompetence.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2021: +0.25 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 1, 2021
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2021-0-25-deg-c/
Changing Weather
IPCC AR6: Event attribution for tropical cyclones, unspun edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
La Nina: Globe Expected To Continue Cooling Into Next Year, Extending Cooling Streak To 7 Years
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 24, 2021
Heatwave Of 1895-1896
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 30, 2021
[SEPP Comment: What do the attribution of climate risk people say about this?]
Gulf of Alaska Storm Season Begins
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 28, 2021
Changing Climate
Myopic Vision
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 1, 2021
Climate explained: What is an ice age and how often do they happen?
By Michael Petterson, The Conversation, Sep 28, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Changing Seas
Great Barrier Reef experiencing ‘record high’ levels of coral coverage
Video interview of Peter Ridd, Sky News, AU, Sep 26, 2021
Great Barrier Reef Doomed – With Record Amounts Of Coral
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 29, 2021
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
More Evidence Antarctica Has Been Cooling, Regional Sea Ice Increasing For Over 40 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 27, 2021
Link to latest paper: Seasonal sea-ice variability and its trend in the Weddell Sea sector of West Antarctica
By: Avinash Kumar et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 024046, Feb 10, 2021
Sea ice growth after the summer minimum begins in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 30, 2021
Plentiful Arctic Ice Sept. 2021
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 1, 2021
Changing Earth
Dinosaurs’ ascent driven by volcanoes powering climate change
By Staff Writers, Birmingham UK (SPX), Sep 28, 2021
Volcanically driven lacustrine ecosystem changes during the Carnian Pluvial Episode (Late Triassic)
By Jing Lu, et al. PNAS, Oct 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: About 250 million years ago, with CO2 changing rainfall?]
Lowering Standards
Met Office’s Fake Arctic Ice Claims Mislead Public
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
City nights
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
A July news story out of San Diego noted this effect, saying ‘Last month was the hottest June ever recorded in North America, but climate scientists say the most dramatic temperature trend isn’t happening during the day; it’s happening at night. June saw three times as many nighttime records as any June on record, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.’ And NOAA said, of August at least, that ‘Much of the above-average warmth can be attributed to warm overnight temperatures.’ But what they didn’t point out is that’s evidence of data contamination not climate change.
Guardian: Frost Damaged Brazilian Coffee is Evidence of Climate Chaos
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
How tropical storms and hurricanes have hit U.S. shores with unparalleled frequency
A record 18 storms and hurricanes have made landfall in the past two years; climate change could increase these stormy stretches in coming decades [H/t Bernie Keshire]
By Jason Samenow, Kasha Patel, Hannah Dormido, and Laris Karklis, The Washington Post, Sep 30, 2021
[SEPP Comment: NOAA has named more duds than ever before?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
How Cameron, Clegg & Miliband Stitched Us Up In 2015
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2021
“Whichever party or leader is in power, we would still be following the same suicidal policies.”
Aussie Federal Treasurer Pushes for a Climate Unicorn Powered Economy
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 24, 2021
Harvard Gazette Goes Full Big Oil Conspiracy on Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Yale-NUS Professor: Climate Lessons Need to “Demonstrate an Emotional Orientation”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2021
“As a community, we aim to provide every member with a transformative experience by encouraging habits of the mind (such as creativity, curiosity and critical thinking) and character (integrity, professionalism and ethic of service)…”
[SEPP Comment: Provided they blindly accept everything we say. Do such professors know the difference between thinking and feeling?]
Warming Arctic could spread nuclear waste, unknown viruses: report
By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, Oct 1, 2021
Link to paper: Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation
By Kimberley R. Miner, et al. Nature Climate Change, Sep 30, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Was the Arctic frozen solid during the Eemian, the last interglacial about 120,000 years ago?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
‘Humanity is doomed!’ Young people’s ‘distress’ over climate change is proof that we’re enabling a generation of bedwetters
By Rachel Marsden, Russia Today, Sep 24, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Kids will experience about three times as many climate-related disasters as their grandparents: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 27, 2021
Link to dubious study: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
By Wim Their, et al, including Kerry Emanuel, AAAS Science, Sep 26, 2021
The abstract reads only: “Young generations are severely threatened by climate change.”
’30 years of blah blah blah’: Thunberg questions Italy climate talks
By Stephen Jewkes and Giulio Piovaccari, Reuters, Sep 28, 2021 [H/t Climate Depot]
Greta Thunberg Lashes Out at Deep Green World Leaders
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 26, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Oct 1 Strike! Teachers, police, heathcare, firefighters, miners, airline staff, truckies, to protest mandatory vaccination
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 1, 2021
“Coercion is not Consent!”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Let’s do it here
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
Questioning European Green
Europe Asking Russia for More Coal Is Set for Disappointment
By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Yuliya Fedorinova, Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2021
Power costs could force metal producers from Europe – Eurometaux
By Staff, Reuters, Sep 27, 2021
Green Europe begs Russia for more coal to survive winter energy crunch
By Staff, GWPF International, Oct 1, 2021
And It’s Not Even Winter! Europe’s Energy Supply Debacle Already Here: Painful Prices, Shortages, Blackouts
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 29, 2021
Column: Looming European energy crisis: A lesson in averages that won’t soon be forgotten
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Sep 21, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
“Do you insulate your house for average conditions? No, of course not. Do you install an air conditioner for average conditions? Same. And on it goes. When the risk of harm goes up, we design for the extremes, not the averages. Or we should.”
New Documentary Reveals How Corrupt And Destructive Green Energies Are: “This Is A Broken System”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2021
[SEPP Comment: A video of greens questioning industrial green – not what they expected!]
Add Another £2500 To That Heat Pump Bill
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 29, 2021
“This whole saga exemplifies how the mad rush to heat pumps and other low carbon heating solutions has been launched without the slightest attention being paid to what it might all cost.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Human behavior sabotages CO2-reducing strategies
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Sep 30, 2021
“The findings revealed two surprises. First, state governments’ policies aimed at helping consumers improve energy efficiency had no effect on CO2 emission. Rather, states with economy-wide lower energy input per each unit of economic output (per capita gross domestic product, GDP) emitted lower levels of the greenhouse gas. Second, investment in renewable energy sources led to increased levels of CO2 emissions in the residential sector. These outcomes are evidence of a well-known phenomenon called the rebound effect that describes when people resp
If you think solar panels are the ultimate in clean, green tech, think again
If they’re made in China, they may have a long carbon trail to work off. Now what?
By Brian Cooley, Brian Cooley, CNET, Sep 27, 2021
Don’t Blame the ‘Energy Transition’ for the Damage Being Caused by the ‘Energy Transition’…
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 27, 2021
Non-Green Jobs
Miliband’s Plan To Destroy The Steel Industry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 26, 2021
“The former Labour leader made the comments at the party’s Brighton conference where shadow ministers are setting out a policy programme to take on Boris Johnson.”
Funding Issues
Funds demand science-based emissions targets from 1,600 firms
By Simon Jessop, Reuters, Sep 29, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Imitating sub-standard science.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Green Energy Companies Fold
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2021
“One of the delicious ironies of the current energy crisis has been the collapse of some of the small green energy companies that have sprung up in the last few years.”
“Yet, for some strange reason, the likes of Green. think taxpayers should be bailing them out!”
Energy Issues – Non-US
You didn’t see this coming?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 29, 2021
Greens, Russia, Renewables industry forces UK government to “go Nuclear”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 27, 2021
Boris Johnson’s green energy taxes on home heating will hit the poor hardest, commissioner warns
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Oct 1, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Opinion: Governor’s anti-dam campaign ignores risks to power grid
By Scott Simms, The Oregonian, Sep 26, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: The Lower Granite Dam in the photo is 100 feet high.
PennEast stops pipeline development despite Supreme Court win
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 27, 2021
Bonneville Power Administration
By Staff, BPA.Gov/transmission
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation, Near-Real-Time
BPA Balancing Authority Load and Total Wind, Hydro, Fossil/Biomass, and Nuclear Generation, Near-Real-Time
California ISO
By Staff, Current Supply, Sep 21, 2021
http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.html#section-supply-trend
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Why Chevron And Exxon Shun Solar And Wind
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Sep 26, 2021
It Looks Like America’s Energy Future Is Still Going to Be a Gas
By Vince Bielski, Real Clear Investigations, September 29, 2021
Shell Goes Full BP – Part Deux
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 24, 2021
Three Coal-Heavy Utilities Team Up on New Gas-Fired Power Plant
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Sep 30, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Renewables vs. Nuclear: 256-0
By Emiliano Bellini, PV Magazine, Sep 28, 2021
“The latest World Nuclear Industry Status Report shows that the world’s operational nuclear capacity grew by just 400 MW in 2020, with generation falling by 4%. By contrast, renewables grew by 256 GW and clean energy production rose by 13%. “Nuclear power is irrelevant in today’s electricity capacity market,” the report’s main author, Mycle Schneider, told pv magazine.”
[SEPP Comment: Nameplate capacity of unreliable “renewables” means little during a still night when nuclear delivers!]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
SRP Approves Arizona Expansion with 16 Gas-Fired Turbines
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Sep 14, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Inefficient use of gas-power needed to back-up wind and solar.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hydrogen for Steel
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 28, 2021
Ethiopia Outlines $40 Billion Plan as GERD Hydro Startup Nears
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Sep 15, 2021
Why Biogas Is Less Green Than It Seems
By Jane Marsh, Real Clear Energy, Sep 29, 2021
California Dreaming
California “experts” hype sea level rise by 2050 50+ times greater than actual data shows
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Sep 28, 2021
Health, Energy, and Climate
Heat Wave Versus Cold Wave Deaths in The U.S. and the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 26, 2021
Other News that May Be of Interest
Second US Academic Arrested, Accused of Starting California Wild Fires
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 27, 2021
Wildfires In Wales Due To Arson, Not Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 1, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
New Yorker Amplifies Calls For Pipeline Bombings To Save The Planet
By Jodan Davidson, The Federalist, Sep 27, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPPP Comment: New Yorker confusing civil disobedience against government with violent disobedience against individuals.]
Study: Climate Models can Predict Life in the Year 2500
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2021
Can YOU Fix Climate Change?
Cartoon, Sep 22, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The world’s biggest carbon-removal plant just opened. In a year, it’ll negate just 3 seconds’ worth of global emissions
By Penelope Mason, News Nation, Sep 225, 2021 [H/t Peter Salonius]
Prince of Hypocrites Strikes Again!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2021
ARTICLES
1. Want to Lock Down for the Climate?
Hitting environmentalists’ emission timetables would take far more than even what the pandemic forced.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Sep 30, 2021
Now a weekly feature in WSJ, Lomborg writes:
“From the news to late-night shows, much of the media makes it sound as if renewables are on the verge of taking over. But that’s far from reality. In 2019, the latest complete year of data, 81% of the world’s energy supply came from fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency. Even if all nations were to fulfill their current climate promises, the IEA estimates that fossil-fuel use would still make up 73% by 2040.
“How can this be possible when headlines constantly trumpet the future of solar and wind? Partly, it’s that renewables produce mostly electricity, which is only 19% of all the energy the world consumes. The rest is used for things like heating, transportation and the production of goods like steel and fertilizer. Even if all electricity turned green, most of the world would still run on fossil fuels.
“And most electricity isn’t green—almost two-thirds is still generated by fossil fuels, with nuclear and hydro supplying another quarter. The solar and wind favored by environmentalists generate only 8%. Though renewables are often touted as the cheapest energy source, it’s only true when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. If it’s a still night you need backup power, typically from fossil fuels—which makes electricity costlier because you need to pay for both the solar panel and the gas turbine. The European Union, which gets 17% of its electricity from solar and wind—the highest percentage in the world—also has some of the highest consumer electricity costs.
“In fossil-fuel use, the greenest continent is Africa. Nearly half of its energy comes from renewables, mostly wood, dung, and cardboard burned for cooking and heating—which kills about 700,000 people a year in sub-Saharan Africa with indoor air pollution. More than half a billion Africans lack access to electricity. Economic development can move them out of this unenviable position, but it’ll also mean Africans will use significantly more fossil fuels than they do today. To give a sense of how much it could grow: California uses more electricity on its pools and hot tubs than all 44 million inhabitants of Uganda consume in total.”
Lomborg concludes that the goals of the Paris Agreement are not realistic.
******************
2. Bureaucrats to the Rescue
How many governments does it take to disrupt U.S. technology?
By James Freeman, WSJ, Sept. 30, 2021
“President Ronald Reagan used to say that the ‘nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’’ What would the Gipper say about help offered by the U.S. government in partnership with a bureaucracy representing a full 27 other national governments? American consumers should beware of the assistance that could soon be coming our way.
“On Wednesday in Pittsburgh, U.S. and European Union officials met to discuss trade and technology issues, including recent shortages of low-end computer chips used in automobiles and other products. The shortages, which have forced car makers to reduce production, have been caused by a number of factors including government-imposed lockdowns and overly pessimistic industry estimates of vehicle demand during Covid. And the shortages aren’t over—car makers are expected to report weak third-quarter sales as a result.
“The question for consumers is whether to trust some of the world’s largest bureaucracies to solve this problem. The Journal’s Yuka Hayashi reports from Pittsburgh:
“One of the key outcomes of the meeting was to enhance cooperation on semiconductors to advance transparency and communication in their supply chains, the statement said. The two sides will together ‘identify gaps, shared vulnerabilities, and opportunities’ to strengthen their respective domestic research, developing and manufacturing of semiconductors, it said…
“Biden administration officials last week invited representatives of auto makers, technology companies and semiconductor producers, and pitched a program for companies to reveal more information about their supply chains to better understand the bottlenecks. Both the U.S. and EU plan to shore up domestic semiconductor production with government assistance.
“This column understands that right now every political problem seems small next to Bernie Sanders’ pending multitrillion-dollar assault on American markets. (And yes of course the Sanders plan includes meddling in auto supply chains among myriad other government interventions).
“But inviting foreign bureaucrats as well as our own domestic ’crats to play a larger role in the U.S. chip industry can go wrong in so many ways.”
The author gives examples of corporate failure, which often occurs and is part of the market system. Contrary to what many claim, corporate failure is not market failure. The author concludes:
“It is true that America has slipped to a 12% market share in semiconductor manufacturing, but it doesn’t follow that firms need government help not to slip further. Around 60 years after the commercialization of the integrated circuit, most chips have become commodities with little strategic value, and their manufacturing has been pushed offshore by relentless demand for lower cost.
“These losses aren’t dire. Silicon Valley’s Intel, Advanced Microdevices and Nvidia make state-of-the-art processors; Boise, Idaho-based Micron Technology manufactures advanced memories; and Wilmington, Mass.-based Analog Devices still dominates the market for analog chips. U.S. defense chips aren’t dependent on foreign sources, and TSMC, the winner from Asia, is building a plant in Arizona. More important, the industry has moved into the software age, in which the code that drives the chip is usually more important than the chip itself. The U.S. dominates in software, as Google well knows.
“There is no need to give taxpayers’ money to some of the smartest and richest corporations in the world. Chip companies thrive in free markets and barely survive in controlled economies.”
***
3. In Other News (Following the above article)
“Speaking of markets, Jason De Sena Trennert of Strategas Research reminds us that what goes down can also go up again. He writes in a note to clients:
Today marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the bull market in bonds. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield peaked at 15.84% on September 30, 1981.”
A beauty on industrial mass academic corruption in Environmental sciences under the prestigious Springer Switzerland AG label: 436 fake ‘peer reviewed’ and published ‘articles’ in the Arabian Journal of Geo-sciences by mostly Chinese clients just to collect academic brownie point counts for career advancement: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12517-021-08471-8
Some of my favorites:
Distribution of earthquake activity in mountain area based on embedded system and physical fitness detection of basketball
and
The stability of rainfall conditions based on sensor networks and the effect of psychological intervention for patients with urban anxiety disorder
The opening essay is brilliant, Ken. I found an obvious typo in one of it’s sentences that you may want to edit to correct, although most people will be able to figure out the real meaning. The offending sentence is “… Frederick Seitz, who was for ten years the director of the National Academy of Sciences. In the Second Assessment Report (SAR) IPCC inserted, without physical evidence, the hot spot, a pronounced warming of the atmosphere over the tropics which no one has been above to find” Clearly the phrase should say ‘able to find.’
You beat me to it, Mickey. Actually, there are a distressing number of typos this week, starting with the very first sentence. I thought to call this to the attention of SEPP directly, but I can find no contact address on their site.
If it’s still correct ?
Ken@SEPP.org
Amen! Unfortunately, we live in a sick time where truth and facts are optional if not totally dispensable.
Both Ferrari and Rolls Royce have announced the design of EV models to debut in a few years…both oil and NG have just taken a big jump in price…if the winter is extra cold….watch out ….the future of higher demand for electricity and reduction of fossil fuels spells crisis.
Well, the energy crisis impacted by EVs is a few years off, but yes. But you’ve already got an electricity shortage relative to demand and a reduction of fossil fuels. EVs are a false hope/advertising mirage that we can avoid the crises they are creating with climate panic.
PS. I would think a luxury car would like silent run EV more than a $350,000 sportscar. But neither one are exactly bad weather, long range, or utility vehicles. Just for show.
0.14C – since 1979. Guessing the slope started out steep and then moderated. All while CO2 emissions rose by what factor? Are we to be alarmed if the slope goes to 0.15? Many will say that proves something. Those many will be assuming much.
This is how the 25th solar cycle goes – after a momentary increase again a strong decrease in solar wind speed.