Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
AUGUST 6, 2021
By Paul Homewood
Last month was notable for a hot spell mid month, interspersed with spells of heavy, thundery rain. No doubt the Met Office/BBC/Guardian nexus will label it a month of extremes, as they always do when it’s a bit warm, cold, wet, dry etc:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries/index
How does this compare with previous years?
July 1941 was a remarkably similar month in many ways, with a hot spell followed by severe thunderstorms, which caused floods and considerable damage. Temperatures peaked at 93F in London, 33.9C, much higher than last month’s high of 32.2C at Heathrow. The highest daily rainfall of 4.25 inches, 108mm was considerably more than the high of 87.9mm last month.
In addition, some exceptionally high totals were recorded for shorter periods, such as 3.9 inches in two hours at Writtle, 3.15 inches in 100 minutes and 0.62 inches in 12 minutes. These widely spread episodes far exceed anything set last month.
Ten years later came another warm July, though without any really hot days. Again though, thunderstorms were widespread and severe:
Fast forward ten years, and July 1961 was a rather cool and cloudy month. Nevertheless temperatures hit 33.9C at several places on the 1st. Strong gales also were widespread at times, with a record gust speed for July recorded at Jersey:
And July 1971 was yet another predominantly sunny month interspersed with heavy thunderstorms. Much of the country suffered with a severe lack of rainfall, with water shortages in Westmoreland described as “severe”.
Despite this, however, other parts were inundated by heavy thunderstorms, with some exceptionally high daily and hourly totals, such as 40mm in 14 minutes at Watchet, described as a “very rare rainfall”. Flood damage was reported at many places, including Great Yarmouth. This latter flood followed 88.2mm of rain in a day at Gorleston, a remarkable similar total to the highest daily total last month of 87.9mm.
True to form, the media have gone totally mental over a few flash floods in London last month, where the highest daily rainfall total was less than 2 inches. As the above archives show, heavy rain like that is the norm in July, not the exception.
“If it bleeds, it leads”. You can’t sell good news, you either find a disaster or invent one. In the case of CAGW the rhetoric gets worse by the minute, never mind the Reality Checks.
Society is falling apart?
Really?
If this blog is so irrelevant, why are you here?
It really is fascinating how you actually seem to believe that your opinion not just matters, but is so superior to everyone else’s that only a fool would disagree.
Western Society is being attacked from within, and from without, and WUWT is more relevant than ever.
He’s declared that it is his intention to keep hijacking these threads until the rest of us agree to only talk about the things that interest him.
So far all we have talked about is what an idiot he is.
It’s best not to talk about him, it will only encourage him!!! 😉
True, but getting the trolls to drool all over themselves is so much fun.
They’ve has such success with the WuFlu porn that they’re going hell for leather with the climate porn.
You’re so right, Global Warming is a dead issue, it has been for donkeys years ever since they decided to opt for the heads “I win tails you lose scenario”, by calling it Climate Change, any 12 year old could work that one out!!! Numpty!!!
“It’s interesting when people d!e; Give ’em dirty laundry.”
— things haven’t change much.
Just make it rain for three days and nights and wait for the sewers to back up
The ubiquity of cell phone cameras and high-speed global internet meet folk that have no time for history and … hey presto!
About a weeks ago we had 2.5″ in about 3 hours.
What a mess!
The creeks and holding ponds are still chocolate milk.
But, but, but…
we have here a climate historian and eye witness, this year had the hottest, coldest, driest, wettest July eva seen.
I was read on my new updates about the gulf stream collapse and how it is causing weather changes, and could freeze Canada
Yes, guys from the Potsdam Institute around Rahmstorf have a special hobby – once a year, the AMOC is collapsing – since years.
Despite the fact, that Greenland ice melt isn’t extraordinary strong despite some days this summer.
I am 48 and I have been waiting for the collapse since I was 12, at least.
The plans of Europe, the UN, the Davos elites, the Democrats and the Climate Cominterm are on the verge of an entirely different collapse. It would be nice if they froze their @sses of as a kicker.
I think they’ve possibly shot their bolt on that one and increasing numbers of people are finally being ‘red-pilled’.
That might extend to the CAGW as well, once people finally wake TF up.
So speaks a mere kiddie Pauleta . I am still waiting for the next ice age they foretold when I was around seven or eight in the fifties. The only assurance of stability I have had since then was a group of who at would now be called stag night out lads in what is now a Wetherspoons pub who found a book on old astrology on the pub bookshelf and did a forecast which predicted ever hotter instead and that this cycle would change in 2005 to colder before returning to heating in 2200. This prediction was based on cycles of lunar and earth year matches and has so far been the only completely accurate one I have ever seen.
Greenland ice suddenly all melting is such an attractive idea that they can’t let it go. Even Michael Mann brushed off the bristle cone sawdust and had a go at this very subject a number of years ago to use as a get-outa-jail-free-card if the oceans freeze instead of boil.
https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2015/03/early-weakening-of-the-amoc.html
So he’ll be jumping back into the meme.
That empirical evidence alternative term, ‘could’.
The MSM isn’t doing this to sell news. It’s propaganda. If they really wanted to sell news it would be more effective at this point to uncover all the lies, misinformation, exaggerations, and phony science that has been forced on us. They could blame it all on crooked scientists out to gain fame and money/grants and not have to mention their role in perpetuating it. They would be uncovering the biggest scam ever and people would lap it up. They could even keep it going for at least as long as they promoted it.
Good point, the climate “crisis” just doesn’t sell well; it’s far too slow for most people who have much more important concerns. However, media outlets in the MSM take money from agenda pushers. Witness the large amounts of money the New York Times took from communist China to push false information and the NYT’s recent attempts to cover that up. Until people convince advertisers that they don’t want to be associated with media pushing agendas, the propaganda will continue.
Yeah, anymore we don’t know if the news we read was written by an American journalist or a Chicom propagandist and then just repeated by the American paper or news outlet.
The Chicoms are buying up everything, including the movers and shakers of American society.
“”Chicom” propagandist…”
Tom, wasn’t it you said ad homs were the domain of the desperate?
Well, it depends on what you mean by ad hominem. You think “propagadist” is an ad hominem, and I think it is descriptive of reality. It’s in the same category as “Mad Mullahs” of Iran. If it’s unflattering, that’s too bad, because it’s the truth.
Tom
You see the world in a unique way. I googled chicom and this is what came up. ”
Slang: Disparaging.. a contemptuous term used to refer to a Communist Chinese.”
I would say irrespective of how any individual feels about the word, if is regarded as disparaging then it is an attempt to insult, so is an ad hom attack.
Let’s spin this round. So if I call Trump a the “Lier in Chief.” Do you regard that as an ad hom attack on him? By your definition it’s not because I say he is a prolific lier…. but in my world, despite being true it is clearly meant to offend so… ad hom.
“Let’s spin this round. So if I call Trump a the “Lier in Chief.” Do you regard that as an ad hom attack on him?”
I would consider that an ad hominem, since it’s not true.
If it were true, then I would consider it descriptive, rather than ad hominem.
As for Chicom, I can describe them as Chinese communists, or CCP, or Chicoms. I prefer Chicoms.
I do so because I want to separate the Chinese people from the Chicoms when I play the blame game.
I don’t blame the Chinese people for what their murderous leaders do. They don’t have any more control over Xi, than I have over Biden. Thus, I don’t blame the Chinese, I blame the Chicoms for the egregious behavior they display.
Sadly under your rules we are just going to go on calling each other names for ever.
And here comes the hypocrite Simon, whining on cue.
TonyG. Nothing to add again? Unless you can actually going to quote where I have been a hypocrite, then you are really just wasting my time. Don’t be offended if I don’t respond.
Our latest exchange started when I called you out for your hypocrisy after calling names. Go back and check that thread (you won’t). I have also provided sufficient information for you to know at least one more incident. If your memory is really that poor, you should probably see a medical professional. If not, you’re just lying.
If I was all that and more you would have a link. You got nothing. Just blowing wind. Yawn.
Don’t be offended if I don’t respond.
LOL
You really are a sad man.
The use of the Heathrow airport temperature brands it as such – no credible meteorological office would use a contaminated station that was bathed in hot jetwash, it’s laughable.
R Page,
Have you done the calculations that show the quantity and temperature of that jet wash is adequate to raise the airport air temperature to a measurable extent? I have. I am sceptical.
Please don’t merely repeat unquantified WAG. Test it. Geoff S
The sensors are kept near the runways, because it is runway temperatures that the airport officials care about. So you don’t need to warm the entire airport, just the area around the runways.
A few years back there was a picture of a temperature station that was at the end of a runway, directly in line with the jet wash from planes that were taking off.
It doesn’t need to raise the temperature of the entire area covering the whole of the airport. The temperature station at Heathrow is situated on a 20-30m wide strip of grass with a busy access road and large car park on the one side and one of the main runways on the other, with jet aircraft taking off or landing on a regular basis. It violates the minimum requirements for temperature stations and has been shown in the past to have elevated temperatures at the same time as scheduled aircraft using that runway – given it’s proximity to aircraft using the runway, the jetwash from them is enough to raise the recorded temperature at the station. It is necessary for the airport to give accurate temperature information to ground crew and pilots but to use that as a temperature station for meteorological purposes is ridiculous unless your plan is to artificially increase the recorded temperatures in the UK.
Now – why don’t you take a look at where the temperature station is at Heathrow airport, as I have, then rerun those calculations with the close proximity between aircraft and the temperature station factored in. I think you’ll find that it changes things.
When aged eleven at junior school we were taught for the school weather station about using wet and dry thermometers to et humidity I asked how the figures could be real temperatures as grass has to be wet to grow so the area itself was evaporation cooled. I was told to shut up and not ask stupid questions and jut do as I was told. Is there any pre satellite data not taken as pure max min data from Stevenson screens which makes it invalid for climate studies on two counts? At Lynham there has been 2 degrees between one at the airfield and one just two or three hundred metres away in a private garden and the station is much further from the runway than at Heathrow.
“Last month was notable for a hot spell mid month, interspersed with spells of heavy, thundery rain.”
So England in July was exactly like every July in New England.
In Melbourne, Australia where I live, we had an extreme of temperature in our garden that deserves international importance.
Just after dawn on 7th August 2021, I discovered a dead possum by the daffodil bed. It had been abnormally cold. The possum was still half standing, with pieces of daffodil flowers visible between the teeth, and it was cold, as if snap frozen in mid chew.
My examination might have revealed a hole the diameter of a .22 through the skull, but since such weapons are illegal for that use, I cannot confirm or deny the likely cause of death was the extreme, record-setting cold. Little bastards!
I hope that the extreme cold from global warming control knobs ruins their sex life this coming Spring. Geoff S
As every good warmunist knows, history starts at whatever time is most convenient for supporting the agenda.
This has become a stress indicator of the media itself and not climate or the environment or anything else except maybe policy influence.
But do those news reports match the model projections for 1941?
Hilarious!🤣
My long deceased grandfather, who was ‘climatologist par excellence’ would occasionally proclaim ‘I’ve never known it this hot/cold/wet/ windy etc’ or whatever extreme weather was’. If few hours later when some of us youngsters expressed some discomfort he would readily retort ‘today’s young generation is too soft, in my young days we had it far worse than this and we never, ever complained about it.’
15 years ago or so David King promised we’d be enjoying hotter drier summers
I want my money back
He won’t be giving any of his taxpayer funded pension back any time soon!!! It’s the old rule, make a prediction as far into the future enough to make sure that when it’s due to appear, cushy retirement will have occurred & the maker of said prediction will have happily retired into oblivion!!!
Yes but he has been trying to move to Antarctica since then, as that will be the only place humans will be able to tolerate the heat from global warming, according to him. He would be there already if he could just get his boat through the last thousand miles of solid ice.
For Tucson Arizona, July was the wettest month ever at over 8 inches of rain fall recorded by NOAA at Tucson Airport. Not just the wettest July, bu the wettest month ever.
What was it 2 km away?
Or even 1 mile?
For Arizona this some thing to be celebrated
August 1955 7.93 inches of rain?
Measured how?
That 1955 record appears to suffer NOAA’s add up a bunch of numbers, divide by observations and voila!
Higher levels of precision!
/S
A grand total of 0.13″ difference. Considering that modern levels are recorded electronically while 1955 was observed by eyeball across a wide meniscus.
Here in NH, we had record-smashing rainfall totals for July, and it came in 2nd place for all months. Parts of the state had as much as 18 inches. Unusually cool as well. The rain obliterated drought conditions that had lasted for over a year. “Extreme weather”? Nope. Just New England type wethah. If you don’t care for the wethah heah, just wait a minute. Of course, the Climate Caterwaulers would claim both the drought and the record rains to be “evidence of climate change”.
Ayup,that theyah CO2 sure is mighty magical.
Was that just in NH? How about VT, MA, CT, ME, and RI? The New England states are more like the size of counties in other parts of the country.
I suspect surrounding states had somewhat similar rainfalls, but I don’t know.
So rainfall was record-smashing and typical at the same time?
Here’s the thing about a record-breaking event: Yes, it was extraordinary. But so was the event that caused the previous record. And so was the one before that.
Why these clowns think records should never be broken and climate can be stable baffles me.
It’s always in the language, “it’s the worst for ABC/XYZ years”, issued with such authority without realising/recognising that it’s happened before by the very fact that they have placed a time-frame on their announced latest catastrophe!!!
I’m not trying to be facetious here, but could you please go through that more slowly? I have no idea what you’re trying to say, starting with the first sentence.
Only the abiotic oil crowd denies that oil depletes. Since we are using it faster than it is replaced, of course it depletes.
Acknowledging that oil depletes is not the same thing as acknowledging that we are about to run out.
Every time one fills ones car up with fuel then turn the engine on, one is immediately running out of fuel!!!
Yes, and who are you talking to exactly? What’s a failaids?
Failaids are a mass of predictions of disaster & catastrophe that fail to occur when wanted, but said makers of such predictions ALWAYS have a ready excuse as to why their Failaids didn’t happen!!!
That’s the first time I ever saw that term.
So, Alan, pretty much any prediction made by an “expert” then?
Mark just made a string of non sequitur nonsense bafflegab.
Yup – I understood the meaning of all of the words he used, but as soon as he strung them together the meaning escaped me – he is the complete opposite of a communicator.
Be specific. There are a lot of Marks here. The Regulars know who you are talking about, but others may not.
Go ahead & provide it, but you’re dead right, I wouldn’t care a jot as such an explanation would be like a sieve, full of holes!!!
“No doubt the Met Office/BBC/Guardian nexus will label it a month of extremes“
Has the Met Office said this? All I see is them mentioning is the record set in Northern Ireland, something this post does nothing to dispute?
Homewood and strawman, like Laurel and Hardy.
I genuinely believe Mr Homewood would be delighted & honoured to be placed alongside the likes of the great Laurel & Hardy, masters of their craft!!!
Attack the messenger.
Note the future tense in the statement.
Is English your first language?
Yes I noted it, that’s why I posed my comment in the form of a question. There’s a prediction that the MO will doubtless say this, but no evidence that they have yet. It’s been a week since the end of July, they’ve already posted their monthly review, you’d think if they were going to say it they would have said it by now.
He goes on to say in the past tense “True to form, the media have gone totally mental over a few flash floods in London last month…” But again fails to quote a single example of what he considers mental reporting.
See for example
‘We’ve done this to ourselves’ -floods that hit London came as no surprise’ by Amelia Hill (Guardian 14th July)
‘Experts warn UK must prepare for more frequent flash flooding’ by Fiona Harvey (Guardian 27th July)
‘Average weather in Britain is a thing of the past, say experts by Fiona Harvey (Guardian 29th July)
‘Is this a new phase of climate change?’ by Pilita Clark The i newspaper 29th July)
If it’s future tense, then by definition the Met hasn’t said it, and the question is both irrelevant and distracting.
Since you are already well known for both, I shouldn’t have pointed out your error.
NZ MSM report says NIWA have just declared we’ve had the hottest June/July ‘ever’.
I’m really starting to worry.
Especially considering it is midwinter in the southern hemisphere
by the way it colder than usual here in the south .
Sadly, the MSM here in NZ have fully surrendered to the Climate Crisis narrative. NIWA have been active protagonists for decades
“NIWA have been active protagonists for decades…”
Including the decade where they were taken to court and won against the NZ climate Coalition, who then ran for the hills when the court decided they had to pay 80K.
“To be ignorant of what occurred before you were born is to remain always a child.” – Cicero
The alarmists are mental. Crazy. Lunatics. And it’s only going to get worse.
No one here denies Peak Oil. What is challenged is when we will reach Peak Oil.
Here’s a couple of examples.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/11/16/peak-oil-indefinitely-postponed/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/07/peak-oil-postponed-again-usgs-identifies-largest-continuous-oil-and-gas-resource-potential-ever-and-its-in-the-permian-basin/
UK is in a long term trend of increasing summer sunshine and reducing winter sunshine – for the next 12,000 years. That should result in more extreme conditions – warmer summers and cooler winters.
Increasing trend in sunshine dates back to 1585; the last time perihelion occurred before the austral summer solstice or aphelion before the boreal winter solstice.
There is a long term trend for increasing water in the atmosphere in October that will present as snowfall over land during the cooler boreal winters. Expect to see northern glaciers gradually expanding – for a very long time!
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Every time they claim to have discovered something new it turns out it’s happened before.
In order to be taken seriously, we have to completely ignore reality.
You are sounding more and more like a climate alarmist every day.
So it was warmer in London in July 1941 than it is in July 2021.
What about the year as a whole?
And that’s accounting for the heat island effect, too.
No money in news, weather unless you can call it extreme , unprecedented etc .
And they even blame cold spells on global warming .
Humans will adjust to climate change as they always have , but adjusting or containing the media hysteria is a new and different difficult challenge .
Facts and diversity of opinion in the free world have now become as subdued and dictated to by unelected elites as it has always been in the communist type countries .
Our media is far more dangerous than the climate changing.
The old saying goes, “News sells, but nothing sells better or faster than bad news!!!”
Certainly oil supply is limited, but how do we know that we’ve reached the limits of that supply, especially as an oil field bigger than anything in the Middle-East, was discovered off the Atlantic coast of Brazil, back in the Obama days, when the great Socialist Lawyer promised unlimited American know-how to help Brazil exploit it??? Still remember watching a BBC alleged factual programme called “Panorama” back in the mid 70s, when they were telling us that by now we’d have to start using less oil, slow down on cars acceleration, & all the other things we’d have to stop doing, because it would start to run out!!! These bozos really hate Human ingenuity & intelligence, simply because it means they won’t be able to manipulate & control us.
Looking on the bright side. If we have enough of these flash floods that result in roads becoming rivers for a few minutes, it might encourage the authorities to do some dredging of our silted up rivers, and some cleaning out of our road side drains.
If you have the good fortune to be able to still drive on an English road, you will notice all of the drain grids are filled with soil and are now growing plants.
Flash flooding is common place, due to inadequate maintenance of our water ways and drainage systems.
It is as simple as that.
Not in terms of temperature.
Unless you subtly switch the subject from “the UK” as the region to which the Met Office report refers, to “London”, a specific location in the UK. Average UK temperature in July 1941 was 15.4C, not even in the top 30 warmest Julys in the UK record (starts 1884). Average UK temperature in July 2021 was +16.6C, the 5th warmest on record. 9 out of the top 10 average warmest July’s in the UK have occurred since 1983; 4 of the top 5 since 2006. The 30 year warming trend in average UK July temperatures is +0.3C per decade; total warming of nearly +1C in 30 years.
Of the other years mentioned in the article, average UK temperature in July 1951 was even colder than in 1941, 14.7C. 1961 was colder again, 13.6C and 1971 was 15.1C. All of these Julys were significantly cooler than July 2021. All but July 1941 were cooler than the UK 1991-2020 average for July, 15.3C. So in terms of UK average temperature, which the Met Office is referring to, the Julys of 1941, 1951, 1961 and 1971 most certainly were not ‘remarkably similar’ to July 2021.
Whilst I agree with the general thrust of Paul’s article, we did actually have rather a lot of rain in our patch of London on 25 July.
A local weather station in Clayhall, Ilford, recorded 105 mm (4 inches in old money) in a 2 hour period. Another one nearby in Chigwell recorded 82 mm in the same period.
This area is mainly suburban housing and on the the Thames terraces. The soil is heavy clay, so heavy rain mostly runs off. Not surprisingly, the surface drainage system struggled to cope.
The rainfall was quite localised. 5 miles away in Romford, there was less than 5 mm of rain on that day.
The only similar event in this area that I can remember was in July/August 1981 (I think) when Loughton was flooded due to intense rain over Epping Forest. A large chunk of this drains out through Loughton Brook which runs in a culvert under Loughton High Road. The culvert couldn’t cope with the load so overflowed, resulting quite a sizeable river coming out of the front of Woolworths.
I suspect that these localised rainstorms have been under-recorded as they would have largely missed all the official weather stations. We should expect to see more recorded with the growth of internet-connected personal weather stations.
Which peak oil would that be?
Or your latest specious peak oil claim?
Every claim of peak oil was a failure, as your prediction already is.
Current known reserves are good for into the next century and likely further.
Here is what seems to be a good source for past weather extremes.
Current Results
weather and science facts
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle/extreme-annual-seattle-high-temperature.php
I found out that Seattle hit a high of 100 degrees in 1941 way back when it was much smaller with far, far fewer humans, buildings and concrete which the Alarmists never seem to take into account when reporting on high temperatures today.
“PG&E equipment caused major fires in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Now the company may be at fault for the Dixie Fire, the most severe blaze to ravage drought-plagued California so far this year third-largest wildfire in state history.”
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Cause-of-Dixie-Fire-raises-a-familiar-question-16371018.php
How does Global warming cause companies to cut corners and not do mitigation measures like separators, replace bad insulators, trim trees/vegetation, transmission wires/tower capacity upgrades, clear access roads, ready water…
These fires would have happened without AGW/CC, what max percentage could current “warming” increase the intensity? I think +2C would have <3% increase in the fire models.
Here’s one fire model/calculator. If the temperature only changes, then I often see about 8% increase of intensity in this calculator.
https://aurora.landgate.wa.gov.au/fbc/#!/mmk5-forest
If the fuel burns over 800C, does +2C really make that much difference? It must be that more energy per degree C is required to vaporise water/oils etc but once these are gases it takes less energy to change the temperature of these gases. The physics/chemistry of fire and fighting ability & damage are all non-linear & complicated to accurately quantify.