Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Niklas Boers of the Potsdam Institute, if we don’t curb global warming, a large scale “Day After Tomorrow” style cooling event could strike in as little as two decades.
Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse
A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say
Damian Carrington
Environment editor @dpcarrington
Fri 6 Aug 2021 01.08 AESTClimate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.
The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.
Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level in the eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
…
The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.
“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse
The abstract of the study;
Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 680–688 (2021)Cite this article
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4
Sadly Boers’ study is paywalled, which I find a little surprising.
I mean if you wanted to warn people about an imminent comet strike, would you charge money for people to read your warning, or would you forget self interest and try to spread the news as far and fast as possible, in the hope of producing a response?
So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?
Run to the hills!
Great song by Iron Maiden.
AMOC amoc amoc amoc The A M O C is running amoc
It’s just part the tiresome climate porn frenzy that inevitably happens in the run up to COP meetings.
See comment below. And disproven every time raised. PIK has a memory problem. Stuck on panic.
PIK does love that film. Do they get a kickback every time they mention it? Or are they just superfans? I mean, I like the star wars films but I don’t refer to them online ad nauseam (OK – that was one Yoda reference, that was all!).
The PIK has an obsession. Since years, at least since the day Rahmstorf was in cinema viewing “The Day After Tomorrow” he and his complices are proclaiming the end of the AMOC.
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW – some comments on the movie
Interestingly, Greenlands ice lost, often blamed as reason this summer was a relative small one….
It’s always fun to slap Rahmstorf’s photo page up here.
He really does seem to be in love with himself (-:
Says it all:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/material/prof_rahmstorf.jpg
Any reason the picture isn’t shown ?
You posted a link and people have to click on it. If you want it to show, download it yourself and use the icon in the bottom right corner of the comment box to attach it.
He does look as if he really admires himself. Smarmy twit (excuse the English slang)
You see, the other pictures are shown, linked the same way.
Some sites don’t allow hot linking to pictures. Hit or miss.
A sort of copy of
Rahmstorf imitated his ancient boss:
Both with the same obsession of “globalism”.
There’s a face I wouldn’t trust … and with good reason. He has never been right in any of his dire warnings.
Who is Rahmstorf and what is his connection with this story? Does he work with Boers at Postdam?
He studied under Rahmstorf and Rahmstorf is the boss of the departement
And Rahmstorf is obsessed of AMOC slow down.
That photo says ‘god complex’ in a rather annoying way.
I admire a guy who takes personal responsibility for saving the whole world. Not.
In this day and age why is this link http not the secure https especially from a institution
He is a sneaky-looking little bastard.
Let’s ignore Rahmstorf for now and diss this guy Niklas Boers for his junk science.
And who teached the junk science ?
Right, Rahmstorf 😀
Does he love himself ? 😉
Sadly I have to admit that Rahmstorf graduated from my Oceanography department a year or two ahead of me. That was UCNW Bangor as it was then in the early 1980s.
He has since been given an honourary award by my old Uni. Not sure why he got one and I didn’t. Isn’t science scepticism?
Anyway, anyone says I’m not a climate scientist I can point at Rahmstorf and say I graduated from the same Uni, the same department and did most of the same courses.
I probably covered the carbon cycle better than him too as I did joint hons. with soils. Don’t know what his joint was, his cv doesn’t say.
Maybe he was smoking his joint!
“Roland Emmerich also says that he is well aware that things could not happen in such a short space of time and that he knows the difference between weather and climate, but that they had to construct their own private theory to squeeze the theme into a 2-hour blockbuster movie format. To portray the dramatic effects of a major climatic disaster within a short time span, they simply took known weather extremes – tornados, storm surges, cyclones, hail storms and blizzards – and amplified those.”
I had no idea that Mr. Emmerich, who is one of the well-respected movie directors of our time, also made the movie “Sharknado”?
A storm that would draw up ocean water and then rain live sharks down on people. Obviously this is fiction, but the possibility of ravenous sharks raining out of the sky needs to be developed within the time limits of a movie?
So the director of a movie just demonstrated he knows more about the science of Climate Change™ than these supposed experts that
rolled and smoked a fat one withwrote this paper?Emmerich was really annoyed that Gore stole his stryofoam glaciers for his epic, a cinema preview.
They’re still wearing winter clothing up in Iceland. Anything to do with the gaseous emissions of Geldingadair will likely be dismissed by the Greenbeaners and those they worship.
So if we don’t stop global warming (by surrendering our liberty and our money) we face catastrophic cooling? Got it. The scammers have no sense of irony. P.S. Scammers, kiss my bum.
Now you know why when it warms it gets colder 😀
These idiots pretend that nuclear power doesn’t exist.
Well, they kill it off wherever possible. They’ll pretty much go after any energy source.
In his world nuclear power may not exist. “A neurotic is a man who builds a castle in the air. A psychotic is the man who lives in it.”
So that means that high levels of atmospheric CO2 can trigger an Ice Age? Which model runs do they have showing that?
None at the moment, but give them a few months and it will be exactly as predicted
Getting ahead of the narrative.
Remember, ALL weather proves AGW
It’s climate change when it’s cold,
Global Warming when its hot,
And a Pause when it stands still…
The world is their toy
A marvelous ploy.
I’ll stick with the Max Planck Institute for real German research.
Rapamycin changes the way our | EurekAlert! Science News Releases
Rapamycin changes the way our EurekAlert! Science News Releases?
Now that is a powerful medicin!
dummy
looks like they have noticed that the Earth is now in a cooling trend, and are anxious to keep the scare going….
First steps of an tactical retreat ? 😀
They never retreat. They are just attacking on the eastern front. They have the doomsday weapon – CO2. It can cause runaway warming, runaway cooling and (horror or horrors!) it can even make the climate stay the same. Defence is not possible; the only permitted outcome is abject surrender (and give up your SUV).
Just last year the PIK predicted 80% probability of an El Niño then the La Niña arrived. It’s hard to give their predictions much credence.
Notice the ‘high gas-mileage’ vehicle that Biden has apparently just exited:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1423386062999769091
It might actually get slightly better gas mileage than his personal ’60s-vintage Corvette Stingray — ~17 MPG highway; 11 city. When is he going to trade in his Corvette on a Tesla?
Cooling is of course also predicted climate change.
Bring out the variants.
From his photos, it looks like the brought out the varmints.
AOC says the world will end 2031. So the collapse will have to wait a bit longer. How come no one is blaming the Russians anymore?
Mark, if you want to keep posting off topic here, suggest you first do some homework. Read all of my first ebook, Gaia’s Limits. It is rather exhaustive on your favorite topic. Then read the first of two energy sections of later ebook Blowing Smoke. Covers the same ground later in time, and in ‘sound bites’ you can even use here. Lots of images in both to help you understand.
Be glad I have mostly ignored you here on this to now. Persist off topic, I might change my mind.
Clowns is a bit dramatic. I prefer entertainers … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6J4l3g4ygc
quit being a schmuck. just try to stay on point.
Off topic, wrong, and have a really bad memory.
That’s your complaint?
So you are too much of a coward to leave on your own. Instead you will repeatedly violate site policies, and then proclaim yourself the winner when you finally get banned.
Which site policy? Posting off topic comments? That would be most people who comment here, period.
Mark, you are on the worlds most highly acclaimed science site (see the awards). You have to have a ‘take’ in your offerings here if you want to have an impact.
Clearly, you are not a scientist of any kind, but that’s okay. Climate stuff impacts, society, the economy, ecology, education, the politics/policy options … there is something for everyone. Choose the best of what you’ve got in what you are comfortable with and you will have ‘a take’ and maybe an impact.
Cheers, enjoy.
It’s 97%. Don’t you even know your own catechism?
You come across as someone dealing with Dunning-Kruger Effect, spoiling for a fight. Considering Rud’s demonstrated abilities and accomplishments, you have probably more than met your match. It might be wise to just put your tail between your legs and quietly slink off into the night.
The figure of 53 years is based on known reserves in the USA. There is no need for more reserves than the business time horizon; typically 20 years. When reserves get low, the business invests money to find new reserves.
China’s coal reserves and access to global coal reserves are possibly the biggest threat to fossil fuel availability. This century could see costs going up until other reliable energy sources are exploited. USA has the largest known coal reserves so that presents a great export opportunity that is not yet fully realised. With China’s man in the presidency, that opportunity should open up.
China is fostering the US coal supply chain to increase market competition in the hope of forcing prices down. However Australia has simply found new markets to replace the reduction in sales to China.
Sadly CO2 levels will likely peak around 800ppm and fall thereafter due to falling availability of fossil fuels. In the long run, depleting atmospheric CO2 is a serious risk to life on Earth.
My impression is, you don’t understand the way WUWT works, or you won’t.
Discussions are in general based on the title story.
If actuality is important, you may write an OT comment, if you are polite, you write “sorry for OT, but….”
Clown show may be what you are presenting here.
Then you should hang on and wait, you can’t force your topic,
Join in on current topics , don’t make enemies make friends.
Chill out
You really do believe that we have some kind of obligation to only talk about the things you want to talk about.
Off topic, wrong, bad memory and delusional
Off topic, wrong, bad memory, delusional and amazingly whiny.
You haven’t submitted an article. You’ve sent a tip about an article. I’ve offered multiple times in emails that you are welcome to submit an article. You’re simply a whiny troll who thinks you can control a conversation you joined years too late.
We have an entire category devoted to peak oil.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/tag/peak-oil/
Funny how he misrepresents himself, isn’t it?
Peak oil has been discussed here numerous times. You are late to the party.
I’m smart. I know things. Look at the things I know. I need to show how smart and right I am. Look at the things.
Once again, the troll demonstrates that the core support for his delusion lies in a complete inability to understand the terms he uses.
I have submitted an article about this topic and will see if it gets posted.
If you continue spamming about it you reduce your chances IMO. But that appears to be what you want.
It really is amazing how you skillfully manage to completely ignore the point that Rick brought up and attempt to divert into something where you haven’t been refuted yet
The fact that you are so dismissive of coal just goes to prove what an idiot you are. Coal can be converted to both oil and gas.
Regardless, I wasn’t talking about just coal.
I haven’t seen any contributions so far. Only confirmation of you dealing with with Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Methinks he wants to get banned so he can mount it as a trophy over the fireplace.
Monte, after this latest round I am certain you are correct.
Not only off topic, but utterly wrong.
At least you are consistent.
Who is not allowing you to reply?
I’m seeing dozens of posts by you.
Is it my fault that you are incapable of actually presenting a rational argument,
Just proclaiming the same thing over and over again makes you sound a lot like griff.
Finally, as others have pointed out, we have talked about peak oil. Many times. What you want is to turn this into a peak oil all the time site.
If that’s what you want, go start your own site. Don’t attempt to hijack a site that others have built and has been used by many people for years.
And, contrary to his claim, Charles says that “ingraham” has NOT submitted an article for publication. Doesn’t exactly present a picture of someone who can be trusted.
I’m reminded of the old saying about how one only has one chance to make a good first impression. Ingraham has blown it!
267 words. Here’s the first. I didn’t realize calling his comment an article was serious.
Wind Turbines and Betz’s Law
Betz’s law shows that as air flows through a certain area, and as wind speed slows from losing energy to extraction from a turbine, the airflow must distribute to a wider area. As a result, geometry limits any turbine efficiency to a maximum of 59.3%. As a converse, 40% of the energy goes to waste or damaging the blade (in the ideal case; in reality more). Thus, wind turbines work by damaging themselves.
Gasoline engines simply deform; wear out. Rigid wind turbines fail catastrophically and must be made to repel any strain placed on them. Therefore a rigid wind turbine is more or less physically impossible because it works by damaging itself, and you must play a losing game to pay more in structural strength than you are producing in energy.
If this doesn’t convince you wind turbines don’t work, you can study their steel consumption. It requires around 400 tons of water to make a ton of steel. If it costs 10mwh per ton to heat something- imagine your home oven cooking a turkey, as a lower bound- then that is 4 gwh per ton of steel. A turbine might contain a hundred tons of steel and produce a few dozen gwh. Just on the basis of steel energy use the EROI of wind turbines is poor.
None of this is conclusive; perhaps wind turbines somehow sustain damage easier than they make it, although you’d expect it to be easier to destroy than to create. It simply shows how Betz’s law demonstrates the Sisyphean nature of wind energy.
References
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betz%27s_law
https://www.wesa.fm/economy-business/2016-09-30/how-the-steel-industry-uses-billions-of-gallons-of-pennsylvania-water
Here’s the other even shorter, sent after my comment about him not sending posts.
There is not enough oil to matter
World oil reserves are 2 trillion barrels. Of these, 20% each are in Venezuela or Canada, which are heavy oil. These are essentially useless; Canadian production doubled since 2000 and living standards were flat.
The Middle East countries, especially Saudi and UAE are investing in co2 EOR, also known as carbon capture. This is often considered a stupid idea but that is for another article. Iran is basically embargoed and doesn’t care about liberals. This knocks out another 40% of global reserves.
Only 500 billion barrels or 14 years of production are even economically relevant or relevant to Co2. Given carbon targets are usually expressed in terms of decades there simply isn’t enough oil to matter either in sustaining human existence or for carbon targets.
References
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/oil.html
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Slide-deck_Building-Momentum-for-….pdf
I love how he declares that heavy oil is useless.
EOR is considered a stupid idea? By who, him?
Sheesh, I’ve been convinced that this guy has no connection with the real world, and with every post he proves it.
Naked assertions and really bad science.
I have no idea why this wasn’t rushed to the printers.
One-hundred thirty words!. How is he supposed to justify assertions when his writing is so terse? Between the two ‘articles,’ he has the makings of an abstract. The illustrations were probably the best part.
Wah, wah, wah.
YOu were told about submitting articles just a few hours ago.
1) Unless you had the articles already queued up, it would be impossible to write two articles in that time frame.
2) Supplying a link is not submitting an article. What is it about trolls, not only do they think they have a right to dominate every conversation, they complain when other people don’t do their work for them fast enough.
4) Your evidence that your “article” was rejected is that they haven’t been posted minutes after they were submitted.
Would Monsieur perhaps like some cheese with his whine?
MarkW – I would say Mark I. just got his wish. His “articles” were just published above 🙂
It really is amazing how dumb you are.
1) The articles have been way more than one a year.
2) Comments on all articles are closed when they reach a certain age.
That was popular during Trump’s time, and link him to Putin, etc.
But, with Biden in, the MEDIA focus has shifted, on purpose.
No matter what, Biden will never be at fault, because he is THEIR harmless STOOGE
Why have y’all wasted so many replies on this troll? If he had a point to make, he would have provided references. Or at least clues where to go to verify his absurd claims.
Of course of course, GSM people have been predicting cooling for years started last year, la nina is kicking in oceans cooling phase kicking in 30 year oscillation, global warmests know this so they have to act know to blame co2 , thats why we have seen the ramped up scaremongering recently with the new buzz phrase ( it’s already started).
So we take drastic actions to avoid warming when they admit cooling ( the reasons are lies) its a recipe for suffering world wide.
Quick! Inject the Gulf Stream with an AMOC-tailored vaccine which can prevent it from becoming infected with the SARS-CO2 virus!
Simple, use off shore solar and wind to power propellers that keep the Gulf Stream flowing. It saves the planet while helping to provide more test beds and data for increasing future efficiency! Hang on a second while I create a shell corporation with that promises to use profits to support electing officials that care about science and apply for some grants.
“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?”
A) Because it isn’t true
B) Greed
C) Because alarmists are dum enough to pay for it
D) All of the above
Correct answer: D – All of the above
I just can’t wait for the giant glacier that is going to wipe out New York and a lot of the liberal East Coast. Then the giant earthquake that is going to make California slide off into the ocean.
None of this is true of course, but the liberals are dum enough to believe it.
The big earthquake is more likely to be from the now overdue Cascadia Fault, and it will probably wipe out Portland and Seattle, not Cali. Cali will likely continue as a best in class GND crash test dummy.
The last big earthquake on the Cascadia Fault offshore (west of) Vancouver Island was a disaster The high water mark was reportedly ~200 vertical feet above tidewater. Wiped out most of the native tribes on the west coast of Vancouver Island.
It caused damage as far away as coastal Japan.
Years ago I tried to warn the Canadian government that we needed a much better tsunami warning system – don’t think I was heard.
This could have a significant impact on house prices in Surrey and Delta.
Yeah the last one in year 1700, it was devastating!
…but didn’t they identify that it had something like a 150 year cycle, it lurches about every 150 years, so that makes it 150 years overdue already? Now I don’t even know where to go to find that article, so that I can argue with facts at my fingertips!
“Wiped out most of the native tribes on the west coast of Vancouver Island.”
Racist earthquake!
“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?”
The answer is so obvious:
As Instapundit keeps saying, I’ll believe in AGW when the people telling me about it act like they really believe it. 🙂
I suppose “act” is the wrong word. More like when the people telling me about it live their lives like they really believe it.
I too am looking forward to the major imminent catastrophe. I don’t think it will happen.
I think we would all be better off if New York were to be walled off rather than have the residents see an advancing glacier front and scatter like rats leaving a sinking ship.
It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away.
Hmmm, Within the decade? Niklas Boers doesn’t look very old.
The most important lesson in Climate Science: Never make an unfounded assertion on a timeline that expires before you do. [Attribution: Bob Kutz 2018]
Operative word in his prediction is “could” – allowing a wrong prediction to bear no consequences for the claimant.
So it’s on to a new boogeyman. Of course everyone will let the past predictions of catastrophic warming slide and pretend like they were just a bad dream …. won’t they? This would take us back to the pre AGW predictions of an ice planet. How many times do they get to flip flop before the people see the man behind the curtain?
The man named Milankovitch?
Facebook, etc., should ban these entities and people for excessive, fake, fear-mongering not based on any science evidence.
The Gulf Stream comes from the always-warm Mexican Gulf.
It is produced by the earth’s rotation towards the East.
That cause the Gulf Stream to be pressed against the US East Coast.
A part of that Gulf Stream veers off towards Europe. It warms the European West Coast, all the way to Murmansk, Russia
Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns
Carl Wunsch, 2004
The earth not only turns, but it’s moving at over 1000 mph at the equator. It’s dragging a whole lot of water and air along with it there, too, and it’s all quite warm. Meanwhile, at the poles, all are moving at only about one revolution per day, and are quite cold. As long as that stays, and that warmer water rises (at least that above 39F), and colder water sinks, there will be ocean circulation. I don’t believe a few fractions of a degree either way will change that in the least.
So what happens if we keep sticking windmills up into that wind, and each one takes a little bit more energy out of that wind? Does the wind eventually stop? Is the increase in force causing the Earth to slow down its rotation, or speed up? Aren’t the recommendations from Gang Green then making the situation, or at least the coming disaster, worse? So many questions! So little funding to research them all!!!
“Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns”
I would add: And the continents retain their current configuration. The Isthmus of Panama is an important factor.
Good point willem.
So the real study should be to determine how much new CO2 is needed to slow the earth’s rotation.
Or how much is needed to blow completely through and wash away Panama and/or Costa Rica and open a new Atlantic/Pacific stream. I foresee a new study on all the climate refugees, followed by the freezing of Europe. Wow, what a movie…
So what you are saying is a couple hundred well placed nuclear deices opening a large enough path through the isthmus of Panama could get the geentards of Europe off our (the US) backs by giving them enough trouble to handle without acting all superior?
As long as we don’t help bail them out, I am all for it.
What do you think griff?
Now you’ve done it. I don’t think Griff can stand another thing to be paranoid about. This one could break the camel’s back. Poor Griff, worry….worry…..worry….worry
The Griff persona is a Trolling Device reflecting memes fed by its controllers and, therefore, cannot worry.
Either that or he’s just a wind sock that only detects one wind direction and hangs there , all limp, in any other wind condition.
If Griff and Nancy Pelosi did not exist, then someone would have to invent them.
I think it’s a login used by multiple people. Sometimes it engages, its tone changes, etc.
You may be right. About a month ago, I nearly fainted from surprise, “Griff” said something remotely correct.
I was starting my Summer vacation, got the car loaded in 97° F outdoors, in full sun. I finally got the car rolling, the air conditioner had just begun to reduce my rate of sweating, when I saw a sign: “CAUTION: BRIDGE ICES BEFORE ROAD”. GREAT!!!! I thought. Now I have something else to worry about on this trip!
FFS.
Someone tell mother nature’s thermodynamics agency that from now on heat will not anymore flow from warm to cold.
Global Warming leads to Global Cooling, unless the temperature just stays the same, then it’s just on a break.
Isn’t their predicted cooling a good thing?
It will prevent the planet from melting and restore the polar ice cap and save all the Polar Bears, how is that bad?
There’s always warming or cooling. Glaciers are always receding or advancing, sea levels are always rising or falling. There is no stasis.
Well, I had to do a bit of refresher research before commenting on this new but really old PIK climate alarm.
PIK has been spouting this same ‘official’ AMOC weakening nonsense since at least 2015. Their problem is that a moored buoy array called RAPID was deployed across the entire North Atlantic at 26N latitude in 2004 precisely to measure this AMOC climate possibility. And it has as yet detected NO weakening.
So, to paraphrase Feynman, ‘It doesn’t matter how beautiful your (PIK) theory is. If contradicted by observation, it is just WRONG!’
As often as published, as often it was disproven 😀
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is stable under global warming
A stable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing North Atlantic Ocean since the 1990s
Like putting lipstick on a pig, Hey Rud.
Well, we used to raise pigs on my dairy farm second barn special enclosure (needed concrete and steel). We NEVER used lipstick. And they all ended as butchered pork and maybe your bacon.
It’s only the really ugly pigs that can use a touch of lipstick and some rouge, like PIK’s science.
Now you’re being insensitive to the feelings of really ugly pigs. I need my safe space, or I may not survive this hate!
Rud did you ever use ‘companion feeding’. My pigs loved fresh cow pizzas.
It seems that pigs and dogs will eat anything — including road apples.
My dog eats: rocks, deck boards, weeds, rope, blankets, headphones, cat poop, glasses…
I’ve concluded that he’s a goat.
Dogs are very wise to possible hardship. Never pass up an opportunity to pee and never pass up a free meal.
I forgot to mention deer poop. That’s his favorite treat. If we let him out in the yard, he will not come back in until he’s consumed every speck of the stuff.
Charming! 🙂
My veterinarian has called the cat poop in the litter box “tootsie rolls for dogs.’ Dog are not discriminating eaters! Keep that in mind the next time one tries to lick your mouth.
There’s a surprising amount of undigested grain in those road apples. Ask any sparrow or starling.
I did ask a sparrow. It ignored me and just flew off. It might have been a liberal sparrow.
Interesting. Was not aware of RAPID moored buoy array. Thanks!
The mass news media picked up on it and ran the whole “the world is ending”
About the same time ARGO was fully deployed. It, too, shows no significant change.
The difference is, ARGO had three specific purposes, see my previous post on ARGO intent. None involved AMOC.
The RAPID buoy system was precisely for measuring AMOC. That they agree is a nice coincidence.
The fact that you can get two different experiments to measure the same phenomenon and agree on the data is more than just a happy coincidence, it’s pretty good experiment planning. Twice!
Can anyone confirm that this PIK study says:
CO2-driven global warming will cause the AMOC to weaken and Europe to suffer extreme cold? That is, warming causes cooling?
If that is the PIK hypo I say it is false.
Earth was probably warmer in the 1930’s and nothing happened to the AMOC.
Earth is now cooling so the hypo is already expired/disproved.
Just more alarmist nonsense.
That and SL being two meters higher within warmer then present periods in the current interglacial, and the Gulf Stream carried on just fine.
as little as two decades.
======
Always post retirement when the pension is secure
Could fossil fuel warming be just combustion heat, not radiative whatnot?
https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2021/08/06/could-fossil-fuel-warming-be-just-combustion-heat-not-radiative-whatnot/
“around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa;”
The Pied Pipers of PIK surely aren’t going to be able to put this one over! The piper’s tune we know is mesmerizingly intoxicating, but fortunately it diminishes logarithmically with repetition.
The poker tells have proven prescient. The climate worriers have, indeed, been deeply concerned about being six yrs into a possible 30yrs cold period. And the fair number of (sceptical) climate scientists who have predicted this from timing of natural climate variation and quietening down of solar activity – “Die Kalte Sonne”, Willie Soon, David Archibald …
Gavin Schmidt and his former boss at GISS, the Father of End-of-World- Rising-Boiling-Seas Climate – Jim Hansen have thrown in the towel, agreeing climate models run away too hot and we could be heading into a 30yr cooling. Are they going to give PIK Pipers in to lead the parade?
“It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”
Oh puny human what CAN you do about it?
I’m guessing every day is a bad day for Niklas Boers
The weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Just as King Canute demonstrated that the tide was gonna do what the tide was gonna do, and not even he The King could stop it. Furthermore, IF Humanity’s Sins of Emission had anything to do with our climate, we have already emitted ~300 years of Industrial Revolution (I’m counting from the invention of the steam engine in, what, 1753(?) so more like 270 years, but who’s counting) to get us to this point, the genie is truly out of the bottle and there ain’t no putting her back!
The northern hemisphere has increasing sunlight with that trend to continue for 12,000 years. The latitudes with greatest increase in sunlight is the northern tropics. That increases evaporation from northern tropics, which increases the flow in the deep water return channel between 500m and 2000m. The consequence is increased flow in the surface return layers that take tropical heat north.
The increase in August and September sunshine over the tropical North Atlantic will cause more atmospheric water just before cooler boreal winters than now – guess what that causes?
Wouldn’t that lead to a strengthening of the Gulf Stream and a small reduction in the amount of heated water remaining in the equatorial region?
Except no one has been able to find that “…deep water return channel…”, not between 500m and 2000m, not deeper, not shallower, not anywhere. It’s my contention that the Gulf Stream continues to release heat, thereby dropping its temperature, until it is no longer a “warm current” carrying heat from the equator to the Arctic, but rather a cold current coming from the Arctic and removing heat from the atmosphere as it goes, and all at about the same depth as the Gulf Stream. But otherwise, I agree with you, the Gulf Stream isn’t going away.
Hedging their bets in case of a cooling trend. Call this a climatological Put.
That was my immediate take on this as well.
Immediate drastic reduction of CO2 would solve this problem, but the time for debate has ended. Donate first, but we must act now! NOW!
You forgot to use the hysteria font.
agreed. Append as follows: “…but we must act now, NOW! –or you will all die“
The arrogance of man……
“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe?”
Because (a) it isn’t going to happen for a while; and (b) because you don’t want many people to be able to dredge up a copy of it 20 years from now to point out it didn’t happen?
A. It’s just climate porn
And then
They’re covered then.
FYI the link is to Guardian Article. Surprise!
Who measured it 1,600 years ago? Michael Mann and crew trashed the reputation of the entire paleo-climate field so you can’t believe paleo studies anymore.
They really weren’t believable in the first place.
If global warming causes cooling does global cooling cause warming?
How do you tell cooling is from global warming or from global cooling?
Maybe someone will ask nice Prof. Rahmstorf about this conundrum.
Any scientist who considers a spread of two decades to several centuries “science” shouldn’t be employed. We expect more of grad students.
With error bars from 300yrs ago to the year 4000AD
How do they get away with such intellectual slovenliness by their peers and why have we allowed science get to such a sorry state?
That was rhetorical, yes?
Seems like we have entered a time warp. My Neanderthal genes are now picking up the scent of EEMH (Cro-magnon man) around the bathtub known as the Baltic sea. Fear and excitement over exotic interbreeding is overwhelming. I feel like a moose listening to Jimmy Durante, do I want to go or do I want to stay. I know, I’ll tell them I have a headache and they will leave me alone…yes, that’s the plan!
It’s 48 thousand years later…I can’t believe the absolute garbage those folks are allowed to generate…collapse of civilization, anyone?
Yes, rhetorical. I barely have words to express my disgust.
Whatever the problem, it can be solved with a donation from each and every Earth resident of $40,000, ±$1,000,000.
Yep, you’ve got the right idea.
The prediction is fool proof. He has it both ways. It is only a matter of timing ..
The credulous general public are happy to accept the most outrageous nonsense when they read, “science says”. Now that the planet is obviously cooling again (naturally, of course) they need to rework “climate change” a bit. Yep, timing is everything.
I think they would have you believe the following: Bad man-made global warming crowds out and kills the natural good global warmth… and then when the bad global warming succeeds, it kills itself and all we are left with is global cooling.
There has been speculation on this occurring since I was in high school. I remember talking about it with my biology teacher in ’91.
Still waiting…
Any cooling that we now see will be attributed to an AMOC slowdown caused by our use of fossil fuels.
From the Guardian
“Scientists know that Amoc has slowed since 2004, when instruments were deployed at sea to measure it. ”
From researchers
“We conclude that the observed AMOC trend is not significantly different (p> 0.01) from plausible estimates of internal variability. Detecting the influence of external climate forcings on the AMOC will require more than one decade of continuous observations.”*
And the rest is based on reconstructions by activists.
*https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059473
“Scientists know that Amoc has slowed since 2004, when instruments were deployed at sea to measure it. ”
Yet again. It’s a syndrome, but I don’t know what to call it. Just because you suddenly started measuring something, doesn’t mean any measurement is now “unprecedented”.
I made a tongue-in-cheek comment on another thread:
“Can you imagine when the very first temperature measurement was taken? It was both the hottest and coldest on record, EVAH!! It must have sent the civilized world into utter turmoil!”
Riiiggghhhttt! If we don’t stop warming….. we’ll have cooling. I don’t know much German but I believe “Potsdam” might be a German term for a state of imbecilic delirium.
When you see someone say “if we don’t curb global warming, a large scale “Day After Tomorrow” style cooling event could strike in as little as two decades.”, then you know that something has gone very wrong deep in their brain.
The only sensible policy then would be to pump 100 × as much CO2 into the atmosphere to turn the control up high.. Cutting back on CO2 sounds risky if you still believe in your precious control knob theory.
Don’t you PIKERS realize that the civilization -destroying anti CO2 policy is totally undermined by this idea. If such exteme cold happenings can just come out of the blue, we would best keep optimum wealth generation à la free enterprise going so we can best cope with everything in a crap-shoot climate.
We may also best forget about PIKO-PINKO new Resets after we’ve warmed you all up across the pond.
How many years have they been predicting the imminent collapse of the Gulf Stream?
They seem to love the word “collapse”. I think these people secretly get a sexual buzz out of talking catastrophe and doom. After nearly 50 years of listening to these squealing kiddies, it just reminds me of preteen girls on a playground.
“So why would anyone charge money for people to see their warning about what they claim is an imminent global climate catastrophe? ”
And do you also expect to receive a ree copy of the latest thriller from the NYT best seller list?
From the article: “Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse
A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say”
Such Hubris!
“Buy an electric car, save the Gulf Stream!”
So let’s get every power boat owner in Miami out there in the Gulf Stream, drop anchor, point the boat in the proper direction, and hit full throttle! That’ll save us!
“…an almost complete loss of stability…” and yet everything goes on like normal with no noticeable change in the climate.
Potsdam Institute, another agency that needs its taxpayer funding eliminated.
If this old Earth had a “tipping point” it would have already tipped at least millions and probably billions of years ago and we wouldn’t even be sitting here to be able to talk about it (since every “tipping point” trumpeted by the Warmunists means the The End Of All Life As We Know It!™)
What to do – what to do? If it stops in the next two weeks, or 20 years or perhaps centuries from now, we’ll stand behind it and push – yeah that’s it we’ll push.
It has to be repeated time and again, “Climate Change policy has nothing to do with Climate, and everything to do with policy change.”
Anyone who thinks climate change has anything to do with actual climate simply isn’t paying attention.
It was inevitable wasn’t it . . . global warming is the root cause of global cooling.
Shout it from the hilltops!
The PIK in Potsdam is just continuation of the Stasi Training Academy, that was there until 1990.
“The “Academy of the Ministry for State Security” was created on June 20, 1965, taking over the former “School of the Ministry for State Security” that had existed near Potsdam in Eiche since 1955. It was called the “Academy of Law in Potsdam” (Juristische Hochschule Potsdam, or JHS for short) and reported directly to the Minister for State Security. Its teaching and research operations were restructured and expanded while retaining the basic on-site and distance learning curricula.”
https://www.uni-potsdam.de/en/standortgeschichte-golm/mfs-academy-of-law
I suspect much of the Stasi Academy staff ended up at PIK after the climate scam took hold in the 1990’s and those Academy folks found new jobs at PIK, and still under Russian control.
So, they are planning to stop the Coriolis?
They have an inflated opinion of themselves and their abilities.
No, I’m not going to make the comparison. I thought better of it.
Famous geologist James Hutton was want to instruct that “The present is the key to the past.” We can assume that the inverse is true also, i.e. “The past is the key to the present as well as the future.”
Did the Gulf stream shut down during any of the recent-past warming events such as the Roman Warm Period? Is there even any evidence that it shut down during the Holocene Optimum? If not, then why should we believe that the next 20 years will be any different?
Correct During this interglacial SL was up to 2 meters higher.
Yes, I think the Gulf Stream shutting down would be unprecedented.
It’s really laughable, given the Earth’s history with CO2, but this scaremongering stupidity gets spread around the world and scares a lot of people who don’t read WUWT. I’ve seen several articles over the last day or two pushing this particular climate change propaganda.
It seems that the propaganda mill is ramping up for the anticipated COP 26.
Well, if the alarmists predict everything then one of them will be right from time to time.
No, they’d still somehow manage to get them all wrong.
They have (unintentionally) obviated their claim to Science! (as in she blinded me with…) because by predicting all that and a bag of chips, they have made their very theory unfalsifiable, and that is the opposite of science.
“The CMIP5 data are publicly available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/‘
Models all the way down.
Supplementary Information “Model with critical Transition” also “autocorrelated noise forcing”
Where does the heat go?
When that stupid movie came out, scientists piled-on to attack it. Carl Wunsch went so far as to write a letter to Nature which read,
“Sir —Your News story “Gulf Stream probed for early warnings of system failure” (Nature 427, 769; 2004) discusses what the climate in the south of England would be like “without the Gulf Stream”.
Sadly, this phrase has been seen far too often, usually in newspapers concerned with the unlikely possibility of a new ice age in Britain triggered by the loss of the Gulf Stream.
European readers should be reassured that the Gulf Stream’s existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth’s rotation, or both.
Real questions exist about conceivable changes in the ocean circulation and its climate consequences. However, such discussions are not helped by hyperbole and alarmism. The occurrence of a climate state without the Gulf Stream any time soon — within tens of millions of years has a probability of little more than zero.”
Another reviewer likened it to “a cheap thrill ride” which “many weak-minded people will jump on and stay on for the rest of their lives”.
But Stephan Rahmsdorf defended it – saying, “Nevertheless, a major change in ocean circulation is a risk with serious and partly unpredictable consequences, which we should avoid. . . . “
It seems that Nature, Rahmsdorf and PIK believe in the efficacy of “The Big Lie”. So, 17 years later they are still repeating it.
https://scitechdaily.com/ocean-current-system-that-influences-weather-patterns-globally-seems-to-be-approaching-a-tipping-point/
See comments.
CR,
Please, each day, put up a title of the sort “Mark Ingraham Says” — he and anyone who cares can stay there.
Then maybe a post about the Gulf Stream and the AMOC can have commenters mostly sticking to the topic.
I made if half way through this thread and quit. Mark and his detractors dominate and enlighten not a wit about the subject of the post.
Ever since reading about “Peak Copper” (1924+20), I don’t give a schist about running out of things other than fine wine, good horses, and birddogs.
Moderators, at one time I thought I saw a button for collapsing a comment chain. I can’t find it now. That would be a good way for those like John here to skip past a troll storm and get to the stuff they are interested in.
The Gulf Stream speeds up with warming and is more stable, flowing faster with decreased viscosity and warming Western Europe more. It is when the Gulf Stream cools that the flow slows down and less heat is delivered to Western Europe. It is cooling that is going to be a problem as a lower temperature difference between the flow North and the near Arctic air that will slow the conveyor belt.
As usual, the effort to blame everything on global warming by man leads these shills to mis-explain everything.
“… it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.”
LOL, they must believe governments have god-like powers over the oceans.
Instead, they have Canute-like powers over the oceans, which is none at all.
The researchers want you to read and believe their warning only, not their data and methods – because then one would see what a load of BS it is. The AMO could slow down, but it’s not going to depend on a trace gas or a slight warming. After all it was much warmer 8K, 3500, 2000 and 1000 years ago than now and the current was fine.
It is an embarrassment to science the way these con-artists clog supposedly scientific journals with their doomsday porn.
Gulf Stream predicts imminent Potsdam Institute Collapse (without any consequences to climate or human health).
On the contrary, the consequences would only be positive.
“A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say”
“Not be allowed to happen”???
So the humans are in charge here?
Is humans messing with nature a good thing or a bad thing?
If you’ve got your dab hands firmly on the global thermostat dial then the odd AMOC here or there is mere child’s play.
It’s a good thing if it’s the RIGHT humans doing the messing…
More about Potsdam
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/potsdam-institute-of-climate/
Chamber Pot is more like it.
“Tipping points”, again? Can they ever stop using lame-brained stuff like that?
It’s as though The They are itching and pawing the ground and snorting for a sudden, catastrophic event that they can point at, and yet, not one of these geniuses has taken a hard look at the volume of volcanic gases being expelled into the atmosphere right now. The They are ridiculous.
What’s next? Frost Fair on the canals of Holland in the middle of August?
Funny you should mention volcanoes… Gang Green tries to make global warming sound like what Vesuvius did to Pompeii, when in reality I can outrun any threat they care to bring up in a manually powered wheelchair with my great-granddaughter (she’s 2 years old) pushing it.
Oh, NOW I get it!!! Dr. Soon says essentially 20 to 30 years of cooling (which would be quite normal, frankly, as a weather cycle), so now These People have to cover their own flibbertygibbet doom prognostications (Earth “burning” up, too hot, etc.) by switching positions faster than a pair of card sharks switching cards.
This is not addressing the most important question: Is this going to confuse the Ecohippies and the Greenbeaners? Is it going to make people like MMann look silly?
If it does, I’m all for it. 🙂
Don’t forget Six Degrees Stokes.
I’m so sick of claims being made about things that weren’t observed and pretending their model is a representation of the past.
“Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades”
Which is associated with the warm phase of the AMO. So if the MOC slows down but the Gulf Stream doesn’t slow down, surely the reduced overturning rates means increased warm transport to the high North Atlantic and Arctic?
Doesn’t that sound exactly like an admission of, “We’re making this up as we go along.”? But humor me, what if the “AMOC variablity” is wearing gloves?
It’s like an arrow with a point at both ends, useless at a distance.
Truth is it is not the weather that is out of control.
Simple question: What’s the Potsdam Institute’s record of successful climate predictions?
There ya go!
You charge money because it’s the headline that counts and people won’t bother to check you work.
This was a mania about 10+ years ago.
As I recall from researching back then, the Gulf stream is driven by the prevailing winds across the Atlantic, and these in turn are due to the height and angle of the Rockies.
Be glad to know from someone who knows about this stuff whether that is true.
Potential Josh cartoon idea — Paul Revere galloping his horse yelling “for a penny I’ll tell you what the British are doing”
Supplementary information:
My bolding.
The alleged research is models all the way using confirmation bias and simulated noise.
Just another alarmist narcissist circle self satisfaction dreams of their most desired disasters.
Just because it’s Potsdam saying it, doesn’t mean that it’s wrong.
No, reading the b. s. and it’s Supplementary Information is what confirmed it’s wrong. Being able to trash Potsdam over it is just a bonus.
Red94
Can you be more specific as to what part you disagree with?
Their acceptance of the climate as complex-chaotic with emergent multiple discreet stable states (a limit cycle) is very enlightened in my view. I’ve been saying for a while that this is the direction that climate science needs to move in.
I’ve written before about signs of an impending system change to a new attractor, such as flicker. Good to see scientists follow suit and not living in simplified “La La Linearland” like too much climate science. It would be nice to see climate science embracing attractor landscape analysis, maybe they are, I didn’t pay through the paywall.
And unlike many here I don’t deny the existence of the AMOC, the dominant feature of northern hemisphere climate and the source of its chaotic instability.
AMOC is a vague term. (PIK love obfuscation because they exist to spread propaganda.) What we actually have is
Together these make up the AMOC.
The power of the wind-driven component far outweighs any other. It is the wind-driven Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system which transfers heat from the tropics to the Arctic. North Atlantic Gyre – Wikipedia
Furthermore, the North Atlantic has a unique geographical feature that ensures it receives copious amounts of warm water from the Equatorial South Atlantic – and that is the projection on the East coast of Brazil where Recife is. While most of the wind-driven South Atlantic Equatorial Current turns south to become the Brazil Current, the shape of the lands tends to divert a significant proportion northwards to form the North Brazil Current – which ultimately contributes to the Gulf Stream. The southward nett flow of Deepwater across the Equator ensures that mass balance is maintained.
Walter Munk – Wikipedia
Yes I guess its the geography – you have a meridionally bounded ocean and “what goes north must come back south” to avoid water piling up embarrassingly at the Arctic.
Classical oceanography at least as I learned it at Southampton University in the 80’s is that the deep water formation in the Norwegian Sea is the propeller of the AMOC. Later the idea arose that it was happening further West toward Labrador (due to some influential modelling study) but now the consensus has reverted back to the Norwegian Sea (based on observations).
As an oceanographer I tend not to pay much attention to wind. Yes winds drive oceans but ocean SST gradients give rise to winds in the first place. Wind and ocean mutually drive each-other contributing to the nonlinear dynamics and entropy-exporting emergent pattern. Better to look at the emergent system as a whole rather than just one coupled component in isolation.
It’s just occurred to me that the alternate strengthening and weakening of the AMOC could just be a flipping between predominance of laminar and turbulent flow. A kind of Hopf bifurcation or Feigenbaum transition.
Re: “As an oceanographer I tend not to pay much attention to wind.” So you are telling me that Sverdrup, Munk, Stommel and Wunsch were all wrong?
Are you denying the existence of the wind-driven gyres? (North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and South Indian) Walter Munk – Wikipedia
What drives the Antarctic Circumpolar Current? Why does it go from west to east? – the same direction as the Roaring Forties, coincidentally. Why is it the most powerful current on the planet? What sort of ‘gradient’ could be driving it around in a circle, parallel to the lines of latitude?
What drives the various Equatorial Currents? Why do they go from east to west? – the same direction as the Trade winds, coincidentally.
Re: “the alternate strengthening and weakening of the AMOC” has it occurred to PIK and ‘Southampton Oceanographers’ that it might just be meandering? – i.e. deviating southwards.
8.4 corres (Rehen) 601 AM (mit.edu)
RE: “but ocean SST gradients give rise to winds in the first place” Huh? not the Hadley Cell?
“not to pay much attention to wind”
This is of course a ridiculous over-statement, but the point is that often everything in climate and even the oceans is explained in terms of wind only. The ocean is ignored or seen as passive. This is not the case, the ocean has active dynamics and influences wind as much as the other way round. In the Pacific the trade winds are strengthened by cold upwelling off Peru for example, and the resulting ST gradients. But yes – you do also have the coriolis force and Hadley cells.
The circumpolar current in the Southern Oceans is one of the main reasons why Antarctica is very cold – warm water from the equator is shut off. Not CO2 or meteorology. They are caused by – not the cause of – Antarctic isolation and cold. And Antarctica is the “Grand Central Station” of the complex 3D ocean Thermohaline circulation.
That is certainly better that Wally Broecker’s silly conveyor-belt cartoon.
Has anyone ever made a climate model that treats the atmosphere and sea as part of a multiphase substance? I have a feeling it would be more accurate considering heat seems to get moved about in water molecules (in my very basic scientific understanding).
I have finally come full circle.
When i was a young-in in high school, they were telling me the exact same thing.
Now that I’m older and wiser I’ve come to realize i have been part of one giant circle jerk.
Really? My last circle jerk felt a whole lot better than this!
[Moderator: Please don’t ban me for lewdness. If this is out of line, just delete and we’ll pretend I never said it.]
“make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away”
How convenient.
A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say
Such astonishing hubris. The earth will do what it does. We are nothing to it.
Hilarious! Come back King Canute all is forgiven 🤣
Don’t forget that this is a testable prediction. AMOC collapse will be hard to miss. (Hint – the AMOC does exist.) This is a big improvement on bob-and-weave infalsifiable climate “projections”. It’s a nice Popperian “risky prediction”. The AMOC could fail to collapse.
Their acceptance of the climate as complex-chaotic with emergent multiple discreet stable states (a limit cycle) is very enlightened in my view. I’ve been saying for a while that this is the direction that climate science needs to move in.
I’ve written before about signs of an impending system change to a new attractor, such as flicker. Good to see scientists follow suit and not living in simplified “La La Linearland” like too much climate science.
I’m confused: I thought warming was bad. But if it warms enough it’s going to cause this which will result in cooling. I thought cooling was good? And if it cools enough wouldn’t that result in things going back to normal which would mean we’re back to warming? Maybe THAT’S why it’s bad?
Re: Eric Worrell: “Sadly Boers’ study is paywalled, which I find a little surprising.
I mean if you wanted to warn people about an imminent comet strike, would you charge money for people to read your warning, or would you forget self interest and try to spread the news as far and fast as possible, in the hope of producing a response?”
I suspect it will be cited/quoted in the imminent IPCC AR. So they desperately had to get it published in whatever form because citing an unpublished paper is regarded as ‘bad form’.
The last sentence of the conclusion of this paper:
“Rather, the presented findings suggest that this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last century, and that the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.”
BUT:
“However—an estimative statement that uses “maybe” , “suggest” , or other weasel words is vague and symptomatic of the problem at hand—not its solution.
The last citing is from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability .
Nothing more to say.
This is the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while:
A shutdown would have devastating global impacts and must not be allowed to happen, researchers say
A bunch of terrestrial apes having just learned the art of storytelling, tell each other that they can “allow” or not allow millions of cubic km of seawater flowing and circulating kilometres below the ocean surface over most of the earth.
Good luck with that. How will a cubic km at the floor of the Atlantic know whether it has been allowed to keep flowing? Or if it has to stop?
Hmm…. All the way back in in July 2018, the BBC printed this little gem of Lysenkoism – “Slowing Gulf Stream current to boost warming for 20 years”.
Link here should anyone wish to read yet another pile of climate hogwash…https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44875508)
Those in charge of the CAGW scam need to get their act together, otherwise ordinary folk will stop believing a word they say.
You’re right there have been multiple reports claiming climate warming as a consequence of both speed-up and slow-down of the AMOC.
Potsdam have at least admitted the truth that AMOC slow-down reduces ocean heat movement from equator to pole and leads to cooling, especially in the northern hemisphere.
Heads you lose, tails you lose. What could be more plain?
There is a piece on this:
http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/
The assertion is that its air not the stream that warms Europe, and the air flow is due to the Rockies.
Moving beyond the myth
This is the final conclusion: