Weekly Climate And Energy News Roundup #436

The Week That Was: 2020-12-19 (December 19, 2020)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”― Mark Twain [H/t Ron Clutz]

Number of the Week: minus 70° C (minus 94° F)


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Modest Change: For several weeks, TWTW, has been discussing recent work by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer on the greenhouse effect and the extension of that work by Howard Hayden. This has been coupled by a review of the surface temperature record by Richard Lindzen and John Christy who used the BEST series of surface temperature anomalies of almost 3000 stations with at least 100 years of continuous observations to present a series of graphs. These graphs include annual temperature anomalies, seasonal temperature anomalies, and the averages (means) of these sets of data. As Lindzen and Christy state:

“In order to obscure the fact that the global means are small residues of large numbers whose precision is questionable, the common presentations plot the global mean anomalies without the scattered points and expand the scale so as to make the changes look large.

Lindzen and Christy show that the range in temperatures of the various stations is extremely large compared with the small variation in average global temperature. Compared with periods of glaciation, interrupted by brief warm periods, the climate for the past 150 years has been benign, with little change other than a beneficial warming. They assert that based on the physical evidence used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) and its followers, the fear of CO2 causing dangerous warming is based on a statistical interpretation of the evidence coupled by a chain of interpretations that is highly questionable. The chain of reasoning is extremely weak. Terming the evidence “robust” and the science “settled” is absurd and the exact opposite of the accepted scientific method.

Further, Ross McKitrick and Christy tested what was available in the new set of global climate models being used by the UN IPCC to prepare the upcoming UN IPCC Assessment Report (AR-6) against atmospheric temperature trends. They used three types of datasets each using four different datasets to establish the atmospheric temperature trends. Further they calculated the range of each type within two standard deviations of the mean. Since the results of a global climate model varies depending on the initial conditions, McKitrick and Christy calculated the range of the results from the models within two standard deviations.

They found that, generally, the range of estimates from the climate models with a 95% probably of the mean temperature trend exceeds the range the actual atmospheric temperature trends with a 95% probability of the mean temperature trend. Generally, there is no overlap. Statistically, the range of estimated temperatures overestimates the range of actual temperatures. There is no statistical similarity between model results and actual measurements.

Using physical evidence, the above researchers have demonstrated that the earth is not warming dangerously, that increasing the greenhouse effect by adding carbon dioxide will not cause dangerous warming, and that the global climate models greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect occurs.

On December 12, at the Climate Ambition Summit 2020, marking the 5th anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement from which the UN hopes to receive $100 billion per year, António Guterres, the ninth Secretary-General of the United Nations, called on “world leaders” to declare a “climate emergency”:

“Today, I call on all leaders worldwide to declare a State of Climate Emergency in their countries until carbon neutrality is reached.”

“We need meaningful cuts now to reduce global emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 compared with 2010 levels. This must be fully reflected in the revised and strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions that the Paris signatories are obliged to submit well before COP26 next year in Glasgow.”

The issue is, what physical evidence does the UN have to make such a declaration? Based on recent papers, that evidence is explored below. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Expanding the Orthodoxy.


The Surface: In recent months there has been a flood of papers defending the findings of the UN IPCC and the claims that increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause dangerous warming of the earth. Note, the term earth is used here because the papers generally avoid discussing the atmosphere, which is important to understand the greenhouse effect, because that is where it occurs. TWTW prefers using the term the globe, which includes the atmosphere.

Among the many recent papers briefly reviewed by TWTW are two released this month:

Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

By Rosemary Bush, Andrea Dutton, Michael Evans, Rich Loft, and Gavin A. Schmidt, MIT Press, Dec 16, 2020



An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

By S. C. Sherwood, et al. Review of Geophysics, December 2020


The first paper gives an extensive list of references. The abstract states:

“This paper summarizes the current state of reproducibility and replicability in the fields of climate and paleoclimate science, including brief histories of their development and applications in climate science, new and recent approaches towards improvement of reproducibility and replicability, and challenges.  Recommendations for addressing those challenges include: development of searchable, auto-updated, interlinked, multi-archive public paleoclimate repositories for raw and processed digital datasets; cross-center standardized code base cases, improved data storage techniques, and a focus on replicability for climate simulation storage and access; and support of the development and community awareness of findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable (FAIR) principles by funding agencies and publishers.  This paper is largely based on the May 2018 presentations of a panel of researchers to the Committee on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, part of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. The commentary and recommendations made here are in alignment with those of its Consensus Study Report on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019).”

The introduction opens with:

“Reproducibility and replicability are considered core tenets of the scientific process and central to the creation and testing of scientific theories and models of the way the world works (Goodman et al., 2016; Stodden et al., 2016; National Academies, 2019; Powers and Hampton, 2019). Our collective understanding of the mechanics of Earth’s climate, the history of ancient climates (paleoclimates) on Earth, and any predictions we can make of future climates are built from the core principles of the scientific method: hypotheses not disproven by empirical observations that are transparently reported as studies subject to external review and repeated testing, creating a feedback cycle that accrues information and seeks consilience (Wilson, 1999). However, Earth’s climate is tremendously complex, meaning that scientific studies of climate and paleoclimate are also increasingly complex. Some recent examples of this growing complexity include the work of the Past Global Changes consortium studying the most recent 2000 years of Earth’s climate history (PAGES2k), the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, now in its 6th phase (CMIP6), the work of the MARGO international working group on reconstructions of sea surface temperatures (Kucera et al., 2006), the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), as well as the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), both hosted by NOAA …”

From this one may conclude that the entire “official climate science” in the US is geared to assure reproducibility and replicability. Both are outstanding and indeed necessary goals but are not sufficient to assure high quality physical science. A student of Richard Feynman may ask, what about the rest of the scientific method, such as testing model results against all physical data including that presented by McKitrick and Christy?

For example, many earlier cultures and civilizations assumed a geocentric universe with earth at its center. It made sense. Human feet were firmly placed on the ground and there was no constant wind from a possible rotation of the earth. It served the purposes of early navigators including Polynesians who made long journeys based on observations of stars and surroundings, all supported by oral traditions. But it would be ill advised to use a geocentric universe for space travel. Similarly, we now have a far different approach to climate change than what can be gleaned from climate history or the approaches used by traditional climate scientists to predict the future.

To emphasize the need to test against all relevant data even further, one can explore the paper referenced in the above report “Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS.” A co-author is Gavin A. Schmidt, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS).

The paper is interesting because it uses the earth’s surface skin temperature trend as taken by the AIRS instruments on satellites. AIRS is the abbreviation for a high spectral resolution infrared sounder that was launched on Earth Observing System (EOS) on the Aqua satellite in 2002. The paper compares the AIRS database with the surface temperatures in the NASA-GISS surface database (GISTEMP). It is important to note that the GISTEMP database is independently confirmed only since 2003. One cannot assume that previous adjustments made to the database were justified. Thus, claims that measurements made as early as 1880 are NOT independent confirmed (verified).

Apparently, the AIRS database is used to estimate temperatures in vast areas where there are no thermometers, such as Antarctica. But that data can only appropriately start in 2003, not earlier as often indicated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a parent organization to the IPCC.

The 2003 to 2017 trend for the different surface data sets is interesting, For AIRS it is 0.24 ± 0.12 °C/decade; for GISTEMP it is 0.22 ± 0.13 °C/decade; and for HadCRUT4 it is 0.17 ± 0.13 °C/decade. (HadCRUT4 is the fourth version of UK’s Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit Temperatures record.) Given natural variation, even if these values may give rise for concern, they certainly do not give reason for panic sufficient to destroy the electrical grid is as being proposed in the UK. Much less, they give no evidence for the UN to declare a climate emergency.

It is particularly important to realize that despite what the UN and its IPCC may claim, papers discussing changes to temperature do not necessarily mean that CO2 is the primary cause. Further, claims that such and such year was the hottest ever on the surface can only go back to 2003 because before then the distribution of temperature recording stations was sparse and insufficient.

The second paper, which is lengthy, brings up some of the main problems with the current approach to climate science as it is embraced by the orthodoxy. It will be discussed in the next TWTW (January 2) which will begin a comparison of evidence used by the UN IPCC and its followers and the evidence used by the skeptics who assert that the increasing greenhouse effect is not dangerous to humanity and the environment. Indeed, they will have beneficial effects particularly to plant health and growth. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.


Reappearing Corals: Peter Ridd (who was prosecuted by his University for asserting that Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is not dead or beyond repairing itself) and environmentalist Jim Steele have informative articles on corals:  Ridd writing on the GBR, and Steele writing on corals in the Caribbean. Their comments are important to remember when alarmists declare corals are dead!  Ridd’s statements include:

“Spectacular death of corals might make it easy to convince the world that the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is in trouble, but it is even more powerful if you can claim that ‘it never happened before 1960’. For the GBR, we knew very little before 1960, so it is easy to say that this spectacular death was unknown before the 1960s.”

“The science of the GBR is thus a critical question for the people of north-eastern Australia. Mistakes have consequences and there is no excuse for carelessness, unverified methodology, or inadequate checking.”

Thus, Ridd summarizes a problem with modern environmentalism incorrectly called science.

Separately, Steele writes:

“Mortality from bleaching also reduced coral cover. Bleaching from unusually warm temperatures during summer 2005 and the 1998 El Nino is often highlighted. Surprisingly, fatal cold weather bleaching is rarely mentioned. Yet in January 2010 along the Florida Keys, cold weather killed 11.5 percent of the coral, which was 20 times worse than the 2005 warm weather mortality. Understanding why both warm and cold weather causes bleaching provides insight into how corals have successfully adapted to ever changing climates over the past 220 million years.”

Given that some humans are calling the current warm period as unprecedented, the changing corals are displaying greater innate understanding of climate change than many humans.

In reviewing Ridd’s new book a journalist writes:

“A common form of communication for others writing about the Reef is simply to assert things about ‘The Science’. They don’t actually delve into the reasons or scientific logic/analysis that support their assertions. Importantly, they make a point of not expanding on any area where the results of a favoured piece of research can be shown to be doubtful. Peter Ridd does the opposite, and he does it with direct speech and in a clear manner.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning the Orthodoxy.


Flickering Fires? Given the headlines and the claims of alarmists such as the Governor of California, one would think that if humanity will not be destroyed from human-caused global warming, then global warming-caused forest, prairie, wild-fires would destroy humanity. On November 11, 2014, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts launched the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service which includes carbon dioxide. On Dec 14, an article in Phys.org. stated:

“A year of data collected by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) showed that carbon emissions from fires were set to be lower than previous years and that 2020 was one of the lowest years for active fires globally.”

Even over the past 6 years, the fires of 2020 have not been “unprecedented.” See links under Seeking a Common Ground.


Carbon Pollution? In an absurd gesture of political correctness, a maker of outdoor clothing rejected a request by a company to print their logo on shirts, a common practice, because the company was a servicer of the oil and gas industry. The response by the company was a model of reason over political fads. It included:

“Oil and natural gas are the two primary resources humanity can use to create low-cost and reliable energy.  The work of my company and our industry more broadly enables humans to have a quality of life and life expectancy that were unfathomable only a century ago.

The merits of low-cost and reliable energy are too numerous to cite in totality but here are a few key highlights:

  • Lifespans and quality of life have expanded dramatically over the last 150 years, enabled by access to abundant energy.
  • Low-cost and reliable energy enables life-saving technologies.  For example, the new Pfizer vaccine must be stored at -70 ºC. This would be impossible without low cost and reliable energy.
  • American industry is dependent on low-cost and reliable energy to thrive and compete internationally.
  • More than a billion people worldwide live today without access to electricity. As a result, these people live shorter, more difficult, and dangerous lives than necessary.  The solution to this problem is more low-cost and reliable energy, not less.

Hydrocarbons are the only source of supply for the vast majority of our low-cost and reliable energy needs.  The Oil and Gas industry is essential to enable human flourishing and no low-cost and reliable alternative exists:

  • Oil and natural gas are the only viable sources for low-cost, reliable energy today.
  • Wind, solar and many other alternatives suffer from an intermittency problem that has not yet been solved.”

One wonders how many comfortable Westerners would take fashionable treks to the Antarctic, the Himalayas, or even go skiing without equipment made from hydrocarbons? See links under Below the Bottom Line.


Number of the Week: Minus 70° C (minus 94° F) The Pfizer vaccine for COVID-19 must be stored at minus 70° C (minus 94° F). It uses messenger RNA, which deteriorates quickly. Special containers are made to ship and deliver it. The Ebola vaccine also required ultra-cold storage. The coolant agent is dry ice, solid CO2 with a temperature of – 78 C (- 109 F). See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide




Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:


Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020


Link to prepublication version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

CO2 and Climate: A Tutorial

By Howard “Cork” Hayden, Energy Advocate, Accessed Nov 27, 2020

The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record

How it works and why it is misleading

By Richard S. Lindzen and John R. Christy, CO2 Coalition, December 2020

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

By R. McKitrick and J. Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020


Bad Science Isn’t a Victimless Crime

By Peter Ridd, Quadrant, Dec 19, 2020

Preventing Ecosystem Collapse: Pt 2 Caribbean Coral

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Accessed Dec 19, 2020


Former environment senator Fritz Vahrenholt: “We are threatened by a dramatic loss of prosperity”

By Staff, Hamburger Abendblatt, Via GWPF, Dec 14, 2020 [H/t John Shanahan]

“I agree with Norbert Bolz: prophets of doom have always been the most virulent enemies of the Enlightenment.”

Dozens Of Scientists Reveal Most Of The Planet Is COLDER TODAY Than Most Of Past 8000 Years

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 18, 2020

Dr. Sebastian Lüning’s admirable and outstanding reference Medieval Warm Period Map here shows hundreds climate reconstructions for that period. There we find an abundant number of studies showing today’s climate is nothing unusual compared to 1000 years ago.

Here you will find 80 charts from 58 peer-reviewed papers showing the same.

The massive data record these papers represent is not going to go away.

Defending the Orthodoxy

Harvard Data Science Review explores reproducibility and replicability in science

News Release, The MIT Press, Dec 16, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


Link to one paper: Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

By Rosemary Bush, Andrea Dutton, Michael Evans, Rich Loft, and Gavin A. Schmidt, MIT Press, Dec 16, 2020


Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS.

By Susskind, J., Schmidt, G., Lee, J., & Iredell, L. (Environmental Research Letters (2019). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafd4e

An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

By S. C. Sherwood, et al. Review of Geophysics, December 2020


Green recovery must end the reign of GDP, argue Cambridge and UN economists

By Staff, University of Cambridge, WUWT, Dec 14, 2020

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Adaptation: It is a difficult concept

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“Can a species that forgets to press the ‘stop the incoming tide’ button on the big expensive barrier built for one purpose and one purpose only, namely to stop the incoming tide, really be trusted to reengineer the Earth’s climate?”

Climate Ambitions Worse than Climate Change

By William R. Hawkins, American Thinker, Dec 18. 2020


Peter Ridd’s Heretical Manifesto

David Mason-Jones, Quadrant, Dec 18, 2020

Cold spots,’ not hotspots, key to rapid biodiversification

Places that don’t have many species provide opportunity for rapid diversification

Research News, NSF, Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: The evolution of a tropical biodiversity hotspot

By Michael Harvey, et al, AAAS Science, Dec 11, 2020


No, Climate Change Is Not ‘Pushing Birds North’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2020

After Paris!

How America’s ‘useful idiots’ allow China to ignore environmental and human rights reform

By Richard Rahn, Washington Times, Dec 14, 2020


“Predictably, the mainstream media attacked President Trump when he pulled out of the Paris Agreement, without thinking through why the Chinese and some other major polluters readily signed on. While many of the signatories to the agreement have been increasing their CO2 emissions and pollutants, the U.S. has actually brought down its emissions. The agreement would put the U.S. at a disadvantage to China and others.”

Change in US Administrations

Revamping Federal Climate Science

Recommendations for the Next President of the United States

By John Podesta, Bidisha Bhattacharyya, and Bianca Majumder, Center for American Progress, Dec 15, 2020 [H/t Dennis Ambler]

“The next administration should call on NASA and the NSF to lead large international scientific expeditions to ensure that the United States resumes its position as the leading producer of climate science. International collaboration in ocean sampling and study of the ice sheets are two critical areas where U.S. leadership can provide important new advances.”

Biden taps former EPA head Gina McCarthy as domestic ‘climate czar’: reports

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Dec 15, 2020


Biden Names Climate Alarmists to All Top Environment and Energy Positions

By Myron Ebell, CEI, Dec 18, 2020


More Progressive Refusal To Deal With Reality: Climate Change

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 12, 2020


“That’s OK, everything is a fairy tale now.”

The Case Against Sabotaging Biden’s Paris Agreement Plans

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Why Does Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Need To Be Kept Colder Than Antarctica?

By Selena Simmons-Duffin, NPR Shots, Nov 17, 2020


The greening of the Earth is approaching its limit

By Staff Writers, Madrid, Spain (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

By Songhan Wang, et al. AAAS Science, Dec 11, 2020


[SEPP Comment: If a critical resource is no longer severely limited, and other resources appear limited, is the first resource is approaching its limits of use? No! See link immediately below.]

Greening schmeening

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“An awkward aspect of climate alarmism is that warming supposedly brings ecological disaster on a broad front, and supposedly warming is upon us. So there ought to be mass extinctions, desertification and unhappiness. Yet the planet has greened dramatically in the past half-century, dramatically boosting agriculture in poorer countries, almost as though plants like warmth and CO2 as much as their ancestors did back when it was much warmer, CO2 levels were much higher and giant beasts roamed lush landscapes.”

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Aussie Resources Minister: UN Climate Emergency Demand an “Inconsequential Grand Statement”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

China to expand its fleet of coal power plants by 10%

By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Dec 16, 2020

“Chinese state-owned utilities are betting on coal’s longevity by building new coal-fired power plants, with their fleets set to expand about 10% by 2025.”

Seeking a Common Ground

Below-average fires in 2020 despite monster blazes: EU

By Staff, Phys.org, Dec 14, 2020


Dry Conditions over California: What Will be the Impacts?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 15, 2020


Science, Policy, and Evidence

From Covid to Climate, the UK Is Handing Policy to the Unelected

Climate change sees more power being given to the administrative state.

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Dec 14, 2020


Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

The Combined Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Larval Australasian Snapper

McMahon, S.J., Parsons, D.M., Donelson, J.M., Pether, S.M.J. and Munday, P.L. 2020. Elevated temperature and CO2 have positive effects on the growth and survival of larval Australasian snapper. Marine Environmental Research 161: 105054, doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105054. Dec 18, 2020


Four Decades of Island Area Change Across Tuvalu

Kench, P.S., Ford, M.R. and Owen, S.D. 2018. Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations. Nature Communications 9: 605, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02954-1, Dec 16, 2020


“In commenting on these observations, the authors say they ‘challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites of habitation over the next century.’ And that really is a nice way of acknowledging the ridiculousness of climate alarmist portrayals of Tuvalu — its islands are not drowning from an inhospitable rise in sea levels and its inhabitants are in no danger of becoming climate refugees.”

Three Decades of Weed Flora Change in Turkey

Özkan, R.Y. and Tepe, I. 2020. Changes of weed flora in cereal fields over the last 31 years in Van, Turkey. Pakistan Journal of Botany 52: 2003-2009, Dec 14, 2020


“As for the factor(s) driving these declining trends in overall weed number and density, the authors opine it may have resulted from a “change in cultivation and pest control techniques and climatic factors.” Unfortunately, their study was not designed to discriminate the legitimacy and strength of these potential factors. Nevertheless, what the data do show is encouraging: rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels of the past three decades do not appear to have initiated a weed apocalypse. And even if it tended to do so, the application of simple management techniques (cultivation, fertilization and/or herbicide application) has been more than sufficient to counter any such impetus so as to result in the weed number and density reductions observed here.”

Models v. Observations

Scientists who say (1)

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“[John] Christy insisted they address it [in a previous IPCC assessment report], so they buried in an online supplement a diagram showing that models show far too much warming. And the newest batch of models coming out, rather than fixing the bias problem, are getting worse. So, scientists don’t always say, but nature will have the last word.”

Model Issues

Expect fewer, but more destructive landfalling tropical cyclones

News Release, Institute for Basic Science, Dec 16, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


“A team of researchers from South Korea’s IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University recently completed one of the most computing-intensive and detailed global warming simulations so far. The global climate model records small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes with a horizontal scale of 25 km and 10 km, respectively.”

No link to paper

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a sea level rise of 18 centimeters by 2100

Press Release by University de Liege, Dec 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Link to paper: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

By Stefan Hofer, Nature Communications, Dec 15, 2020


“Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models.”

[SEPP Comment: Rather than test the dubious models, extend the claims by using fictionalized databases and assumptions as in the extreme IPCC story lines of increases in CO2 emissions.]

Measurement Issues — Surface

HadCRUT5 Adjusts Temperatures Upwards Again

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2020

[SEPP Comment: Forget measurements, do what the others do!]

Hotter than the hottest… uh…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“So we’re comparing microwaves to tree rings if we make dogmatic statements about how recent readings compare with older ones.”

Sea-Surface Temperatures: Hadley Centre v. NOAA

By Andy May, WUWT, Dec 16, 2020

Changing Weather

Record Rainfall, Tornadoes and Frequent Heavy Snowfalls–UK Wild Weather in 1950

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 13, 2020

Wild Weather In 1960!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 14, 2020

Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations

Case studies show climate variation linked to rise and fall of medieval nomadic empires

By Allie McBride for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX) Dec 16, 2020


Changing Seas

New Research Shows The Oceans Can ‘Spontaneously’ Warm 8°C In Under 100 Years ‘Without External Trigger’

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 17, 2020

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

The conundrum of Hudson Bay bears that left shore late in 1983 with video from CBC archives

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 17, 2020

Changing Earth

Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 14, 2020

Link to one paper: Holocene history of landscape instability in Iceland: Can we deconvolve the impacts of climate, volcanism and human activity?

By Áslaug Geirsdóttir, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Dec 1, 2020


New study helps pinpoint when earth’s plate subduction began

By Staff Writers, San Diego CA (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Secret of Australia’s volcanoes revealed

By Staff Writers, Sydney, Australia (SPX) Dec 17, 2020


Link to paper; Intraplate volcanism triggered by bursts in slab flux

By Ben R. Mather, Science Advances, Dec 16, 2020


Lowering Standards

Once-in-a-lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Flood levels reached by Superstorm Sandy could be seen every 4 years by the end of the 21st century

By Staff, Research News, Dec 15, 2020


Link to paper: Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York

By Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, Climate Change, Nov 26, 2020


“This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario).” [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: NSF does not distinguish speculation from science!]

The wreck of the Great Lakes

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“Excuse us. We bought National Geographic thinking it was scientific propaganda. But we got science fiction instead. Can we have our money back?”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Devastating skin disease covering up to 70% of a dolphin’s body tied to climate change

News Release, The Marine Mammal Center, Dec 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Link to paper: Fresh water skin disease in dolphins: a case definition based on pathology and environmental factors in Australia

By Pádraig J. Duignan, et al. Nature Scientific Reports, Dec 15, 2020


From the abstract: “The common features of both events were (1) an abrupt and marked decrease in salinity (from > [greater than] 30ppt [parts per trillion] to < [less than] 5ppt) due to rainfall in the catchments, with hypo-salinity persisting weeks to months, and (2) dermatitis characterized grossly by patchy skin pallor…”

The moon controls the release of methane in Arctic Ocean

Research News, UIT, The Arctic University of Norway, Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Correlation between tectonic stress regimes and methane seepage on the western Svalbard margin

By Andreia Plaza-Faverola and Marie Keiding, Solid Earth, Jan 15, 2019


Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Australian cattle feed invention equal to taking ‘100 million cars off the road’ wins international prize

By Cameron Jenkins, The Hill Dec 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


And the Arctic gets it… again

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“Until then, the article’s claim that ‘Perhaps it will jolt more of the public into supporting action to combat climate change’ sounds like wishful thinking on top of wilful exaggeration.”

How will sea levels change with climate change?

By Dani Leviss, Live Science, Dec 13, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


“In some places, sea levels are actually falling.

“’This pattern of sea level change on the globe, called a sea level fingerprint, is distinct for that particular ice sheet,’ Austermann said, explaining how the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets each have their own fingerprint patterns.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Claim: We’re Closer to 1.5C Global Warming than You Think

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 17, 2020

[SEPP Comment: More on UN IPCC science fiction.]

On Panorama, it never rains but it pours bogus facts

By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, Dec 17, 2020

Scope 3 Emissions: A Climate Accounting Absurdity

By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Energy, Dec 16, 2020


US could reach ‘net-zero’ carbon by 2050. Here’s how.

By Rafi Letzter, Live Science, Dec 16, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Greta Thunberg Slams New Zealand’s Unambitious Climate Emergency

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 16, 2020

Expanding the Orthodoxy

New UN Climate Emergency

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 13, 2020


World urged to move on ‘climate emergency’ after pandemic

By Jitendra Joshi and Patrick Galey in Paris, London (AFP) Dec 12, 2020


“The UN said this week that global carbon pollution fell a record seven percent in 2020 due to pandemic response measures that curbed free movement and electricity demand.

“But it said that the emissions of China — the first to lock down and to reopen its economy after the virus emerged in the city of Wuhan a year ago — fell just 1.7 percent as Beijing sought a swift rebound from Covid-19.”

[SEPP Comment If you believe reported deaths in China of 3 per million, which has been the same for many months!]

UN’s call for ‘climate emergency’ is an invitation to misery in developing countries

By Vijay Jayaraj, India, Via GWPF, Dec 14, 2020

Wacky “War on Nature”

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 15, 2020

Fed joins world central banks fighting climate change

By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Dec 15, 2020


UN Climate Ambition Summit Falls Flat

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 13, 2020

GE All-in to Fight Climate Change, Urges Accelerated Replacement of Coal Power

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Dec 15, 2020

[SEPP Comment: Bigger profits in selling many new turbines than watching old, reliable ones generate electricity.]

Questioning European Green

EU apparatchiks want a 55% CO2 emissions cut by 2030

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Dec 11, 2020


How The Climate Crooks Lied To Get The Policies They Wanted

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 15, 2020

Renewable energy disaster threatens to destroy thousands of jobs

By Staff, GWPF & BBC, Dec 12, 2020

Questioning Green Elsewhere

America’s Energy Supply and The Green New Deal

Video, CEI, Dec 18, 2020

Funding Issues

Coronavirus relief funds could easily pay to stop the worst of climate change (Op-Ed)

By David L. McCollum, Live Science, Dec 16, 2020


[SEPP Comment: As with the coronavirus, most of climate change is natural, But can man stop nature or just try to defend against it?

The Political Games Continue

Senators Should Object to Manchin-Murkowski Costly Energy and Climate Restrictions

By Myron Ebell, CEI, Dec 15, 2020


The Upcoming Biden Administration Calls For Extreme Levels Of Reality Denial

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 18, 2020


Litigation Issues

GAO Asks Court to Compel New Mexico AG to Stop Stonewalling in Discovery, Provide Answers to Questions About Work with Activists and Activist AGs

“EPA reveals AGO’s claim that records are shielded by ‘pending litigation,’ secrecy pact directly contradicted by New York Attorney General claim to WSJ

By Chris Horner, Government Accountability and Oversight, Accessed Dec 8, 2020

“Government Accountability & Oversight is a 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to transparency in public officials’ dealings on matters of energy, environment and law enforcement.”

Heathrow: Climate activists lose legal battle to stop third runway at west London airport

The Supreme Court overturns a previous Court of Appeal ruling in a case brought by Friends of the Earth and others.

By Lisa Holland, Sky News, Dec 16, 2020


Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Mexico: Renewables Should Pay for Backup

Bly Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 15. 2020

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Trump administration finalizes second rule in days limiting habitat protections

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 17, 2020


[SEPP Comment: Is it limiting protections or guarding against highly speculative rule making?]

Trump administration rolls back efficiency standards for showerheads, washers and dryers

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Dec 15, 2020


[SEPP Comment: The time-efficiency of the public is not a consideration to the supporters of bureaucracy.]

Washington Post Trashes EPA Benefit Cost Analysis Rule

By Marlo Lewis Jr. CEI, Dec 18, 2020


[SEPP Comment: Many in Washington do not wish to see rigorous examination of the benefits and costs of proposed rules.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

We knew that they knew that we knew

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

Mass blackouts after China cuts Australian coal imports

By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 18, 2020


President Xi’s Con Trick

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2020


China’s long term strategy appears to revolve around a massive expansion in nuclear capacity. This has long been the case, and has nothing to do with climate change, however much Xi may dress it up.

Instead, it has much to do with energy independence and long term security, particularly if coal reserves start to run out in a few decades time.

However, even in China, there are obstacles in the path of rolling out large mounts of nuclear power – it is not cheap and there are environmental issues. In the medium term then, China will remain almost totally reliant on fossil fuels.

The idea that renewable energy can ever fill the gap is pie in the sky.

Home Insulation

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2020


It’s a fix – part 1

Local electricity pricing isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

By Bruno Prior, GWPF, Dec 17, 2020


“Market failure” often means “market outcomes I don’t like”, and “market improvement” often means “skewing markets to try to make them produce outcomes that I approve of [/in my interest]”. Unless the market improvement is removing obstacles to voluntary exchange, it reduces efficiency by definition, because no institutional change would have been required to make markets gravitate towards outcomes that are more cost-effective and not institutionally-inhibited.

Energy Issues – Australia

WA [West Australia] “Solves” the Solar Energy Duck Curve by Raising Evening Electricity Prices

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

[SEPP Comment: Make the consumer pay: The bureaucratic solution to a problem that bureaucrats create!]

Climate Activist Aussie Politicians Leap to Rescue Vital Coal Power Plants

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

Scott Morrison right to shun Boris Johnson’s Global Deep Green Club

By Judith Sloan, The Australian, Via GWPF, Dec 15, 2020


“‘Imagine Britain when a Green Industrial Revolution has helped to level up the country and British towns and regions — Teesside, Port Talbot, Merseyside and Mansfield — are now synonymous with green technology and jobs,’ Johnson waxed lyrically recently.”

[SEPP Comment: Ban the use of power equipment and create more jobs.]

Energy Issues — US

Remember: Not Everyone Can Afford Costly Energy

By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Dec 16, 2020


Report Urges Reforming Surface Transportation for Long-Term Sustainability

News Release by Staff, CEI, Dec 9, 2020


Link to report: Reforming Surface Transportation for Long-Term Sustainability

How Restructuring Federal Highway Funding Can Prepare us for Future Transportation Challenges

By Virgil Payne, CEI, Dec 9,, 2020


Nuclear Energy and Fears

Nuclear Developers Dust Off Plans for More Reactors in U.K.

By Rachel Morison, Bloomberg Green, Dec 11, 2020


Vogtle Receives First Shipment of Nuclear Fuel

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Dec 10, 2020


“The team leading the expansion, a project which would provide the U.S. with the country’s first new large-scale nuclear reactors in more than 30 years, earlier this year successfully completed the pre-startup review process conducted by the World Association of Nuclear Operators.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Shuttering fossil fuel power plants may cost less than expected

By Staff Writers, Atlanta GA (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Fossil electricity retirement deadlines for a just transition

By Emily Grubert, AAAS Science, Dec 4, 2020


[SEPP Comment: And blackouts will be just “transition.”]

Google Deepmind AI Project to Improve Renewable Energy Reliability Quietly Disappeared

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 17, 2020

Huge Success! German Draft Bill Provision Deeming Green Energies A Matter Of ‘Public Safety’ Gets Deleted!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 16 2020


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

The geothermal energy revolution

By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 14, 2020


EU countries agree to ‘rapidly upscale’ hydrogen market

By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV, Dec 15, 2020


“Member states have set aside their divergences on renewable vs ‘low-carbon’ hydrogen to focus on efforts to ‘rapidly upscale the market for hydrogen at EU level’.”

Exxon’s Algae Dry Hole ($300 million greenwashing failure continuing)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 16, 2020


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Car makers warn electric car plans are “far removed from reality”

European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association calculates if EU targets of 30 million EVs by 2030 are to be met, their numbers must rise by almost 5,000%

By Hugo Griffiths, Auto Express, Dec 10, 2020


Health, Energy, and Climate

Cause of Death: Follow-up

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 18, 2020


Restraint Doesn’t Work, Only A 1000% Tax On Sugar Will Help Solve The Global Obesity Health Crisis

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2020


Environmental Industry

Green groups are China’s “useful idiots”

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Dec 11, 2020


Link to report: The Red and the Green: China’s Useful Idiots

By Patricia Adams, GWPF, 2020


Politicizing Business: From CSR to ESG

By Robert Bradley, Jr. Institute for Energy Research, Dec 15, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


“‘The two greatest enemies of free enterprise in the United States,’ Milton Friedman once stated, ‘have been, on the one hand, my fellow intellectuals and, on the other hand, the business corporations of this country.’”

Other Scientific News

How hot is too hot for life deep below the ocean floor?

By Staff Writers, Bremen, Germany (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Temperature limits to deep subseafloor life in the Nankai Trough subduction zone

By Verena B. Heuer, et al. Science, Dec 4, 2020


Mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals occur in 27-million-year cycle

By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: A 27.5-My underlying periodicity detected in extinction episodes of non-marine tetrapods

By Michael R. Rampino ,Ken Caldeira &Yuhong Zhu, Historical Biology, Dec 10, 2020


Other News that May Be of Interest

Charles Moore: Cambridge is a template for defending free speech

By Charles Moore, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Dec 15, 2020


The COVID-19 Data Is A “Travesty”

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Dec 16, 2020


Chance played a major role in keeping Earth fit for life

By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Dec 15, 2020


Link to paper: Chance played a role in determining whether Earth stayed habitable

By Toby Tyrrell, Nature Communications, Dec 11, 2020



Boris Believes H2O and CO2 Are Toxic

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 16, 2020


Eleven Years Ago Today Al Gore Predicted the North Pole Would Be Completely Ice Free in Five Years

By Cap Allon, Electroverse, Dec 13, 2020

North Face vs. Energy Reality, Business Civility

By Adam Anderson, Master Resource, Dec 17, 2020

Telegraph’s Puff For Green Energy

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 12, 2020


Now We’re Cooking With Gas. But Tomorrow?

The Sierra Club hijacks a state agency in an effort to force Californians to use electric stoves and ovens.

By Allysia Finley, WSJ, Dec 16, 2020


The journalist writes:

“Californians pay twice as much for electricity as Nevadans and Oregonians do. In return they get rolling blackouts during heat waves and power cutoffs in windstorms to prevent fires caused by old equipment. So where’s the Public Utilities Commission’s Public Advocates Office? Its statutory mandate is ‘to obtain the lowest possible rate for service consistent with reliable and safe service levels.’ Instead it’s busy trying to banish fossil fuels.

“The office has teamed up with the Sierra Club against Southern California Gas. The Sierra Club has been pushing cities and the state Energy Commission to ban natural-gas hookups in new buildings. Some three dozen cities have done so.

“SoCalGas is fighting these bans, as are homebuilders, realtors and commercial real-estate groups, which noted in a public comment to the Energy Commission that ‘in a survey conducted just two years ago, over 70% of the respondents indicated they would NOT want a home with an electric stove.’

“Replacing natural gas appliances with electric ones is expensive. In the Central Valley, new-home buyers would pay $250 more a year to operate an all-electric home—and that’s before a planned 30% increase in electric rates over the next few years. The move to electric appliances would also increase demand for current, necessitating more blackouts. More than 120 localities have passed resolutions against gas bans.

“Enter the Public Advocates Office. It accuses SoCalGas of illegally spending ratepayer dollars on political advocacy. The office has asked the utility commission to fine the company $379 million. SoCalGas says shareholders have financed its political lobbying. It acknowledges having spent some ratepayer dollars on public education, which is permitted. The distinction between public education and political advocacy can be fuzzy. Electric utilities are allowed to spend ratepayer dollars to promote electric vehicles.

“SoCalGas has offered to open up its books to the utility commission for an audit on the condition that its records not be shared with outside groups. Proprietary information could affect trading markets if leaked. Accounting records also include private financial information of consultants and groups that the utility has paid. The Public Advocate has declined the proposal for an independent audit because it wants to share the records with green groups.

“In August 2019, the office signed a ‘common interest, joint prosecution and confidentiality agreement’ that allows it to share information from its SoCalGas investigation with the Sierra Club. SoCalGas obtained a copy of the agreement under the state’s Public Records Act. The agreement, however, shields other communications from public disclosure under attorney-client privilege.”

After a discussion of some of the political moves involved, the journalist concludes with:

“The Utility Commission will decide Thursday whether to allow the Public Advocates to subpoena SoCalGas accounting records. The Public Advocates shouldn’t be part of the Sierra Club’s campaign to banish fossil fuels, and ratepayers certainly shouldn’t be made to bankroll it.”


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December 21, 2020 3:17 am

The SC25 has properly taken off in the last month
but there is an odd thing about it. Up to date there were handful large spots but all of them were much closer to the solar equator than could be expected for start of a solar cycle.comment image

Pat Smith
December 21, 2020 6:21 am

Apologies, I did not understand this sentence from your first article, Modest Change.

They found that, generally, the range of estimates from the climate models with a 95% probably of the mean temperature trend exceeds the range the actual atmospheric temperature trends with a 95% probability of the mean temperature trend.

Is there a misprint here?

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