Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I put up a post calling for the end of the American lockdowns some five months ago, on March 21st, a week after the first lockdowns here in California.
In that post I made three predictions: massive economic loss, increased deaths, and young men causing trouble in the streets, viz:
The economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is going to be huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. Think pissed off young men out of a job and drinking on the street because no place is open, even though of course it’s illegal to be on the street.
Clearly the economic damage has been overwhelming. And tragically, I was right about angry young men on the streets.
Regarding the final point, deaths, I was interested to be pointed to a study entitled COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself. They looked at the well-established numbers relating increased deaths to the loss of jobs. Then, given the ages of the people involved, they figured out the “life-years” lost.
Here’s the money quote:
Combining these analyses, we found that an estimated 18.7 million life-years will be lost in the United States due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Comparative data analysis between nations shows that the lockdowns in the United States likely had a minimal effect in saving life-years. Using two different comparison groups, we estimate that the COVID-19 lockdowns in the U.S. saved between a quarter to three quarters of a million life-years.
The lockdowns cost ten times the number of life-years saved from coronavirus … a double-plus ungood plan. Turns out staying home is far from safe, not even including the enormous economic cost.
And that was back in the peak of the infections when the lockdowns actually might have been making a difference. Now, at the tail end of the story, the imbalance is worse—people are still out of work, economic costs continue to mount, and every day fewer lives are being affected by the virus.
In the face of all of this, all I can do is repeat what I said back on March 21st …
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWNS!
w.
PS—When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing, so we can avoid at least some of the misunderstandings plaguing the intarwebs …
The lockdown in Victoria has revealed special pleading for exemptions on an industrial scale. Those who have whinged the most correlate with being in the least vital of jobs. Example, sports people like AFL footballers have been among the loudest seeking special treatment and getting it. Meanwhile, more essential people like nurses and doctors have mostly stayed silent and got on with the job of working in the high risk environment of hospitals and nursing homes. So, when the fuss is over and the rebuild of the economy starts, we have some good guidelines about which sectors have earned a place near the top of the line and which are self serving, deserving no consideration.
Economic planners have seldom mentioned any concern for those like me in the very high risk group where death is a likely outcome from catching this virus. Instead, they do theoretical calculations as if all people have equal risk, in a detatched manner aimed at showing how vital their work is.
The big concern is the conduct and performance of our Victorian State politicians. Blatantly, they are bypassing long time conventions and bullying their way to positions of power that have done away with review and checks and balances that reduce the risk of unhealthy dictatorial conduct. In essence, we now have a dictator Premier. Already we have seen a rise in decisions unrelated to this virus, that will cause detriment but have had compensation, redress and review taken out of the usual process.
That is where some real indirect costs reside. These opportunities to increase uncontrolled political power have been grabbed. The envelope that used to contain acceptable politics has been broadened for future dictators.
It is all an unholy mess revealing the hands of excessive opportunists. Be very careful.
Geoff S
Willis writes
So many people in different countries experience different rules but one thing we’re all restricted in is travelling right now. What other restrictions do you have right now, Willis?
Eating and drinking, haircuts, having to wear masks, schools partially open, sports closed……
Tim, good to hear from you. We have restrictions on gyms, pools, going to the beach, wearing masks required indoors, schools, no indoor restaurants, can’t get a haircut, library mostly closed, the list is long.
w.
It’s hard for me to believe that 1) universities are acting this way, and 2) students are putting up with it.
“Sentenced To Isolation Prisons!” – College Students Across America Are Being Subjected To A Horrid Psychological Experiment
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/sentenced-isolation-prisons-college-students-across-america-are-being-subjected-horrid
There will be a reckoning when the truth is realized. A lot of damage is being done.
I have a child that is a freshman at UNC and barely made it two weeks before being sent back home. I question the value of online courses, but for sure this generation doesn’t need more screen time.
My freshman quit college and returned. Said he didn’t want to experience the 2nd half of his senior Year all over again. The University lied and said they would be in class with Intramural sports….nope.
““Sentenced To Isolation Prisons!” – College Students Across America Are Being Subjected To A Horrid Psychological Experiment”
They really have it tough.
Well, at least they aren’t hanging from the ceiling by their broken arms, in a North Vietnamese prison camp, like Senator John McCain experienced.
Just remember, college students: Your situation could be worse. It has been worse for a lot of people over the years. Count your blessings.
When will we all just face reality and admit to each other that the wearing of masks and “social distancing” are simply NOT WORKING as intended?
Sure, these actions may have a TINY effect on slowing the spread of COVID-19, but they sure as hell are not stopping it . . . and at what cost in collateral damage to peoples lives, mental health and the overall economy, as Willis points out?
Gordon A. Dressler
You can be 100% certain of one thing.
Governments around the world will declare that social distancing, lockdowns, muzzling and isolation all worked because the curve has now been flattened.
Some will go as far as to claim these measures saved the world from Ferguson’s (Of Imperial College infamy) extrapolation of 500,000 deaths in the UK, derived from a computer model variously compiled over the years by students.
Politicians should be prompted to turn their gaze on other computer model based social panic (namely climate change) but they won’t. They are too well served by the confusion and opportunities they offer them personally.
We don’t need the measures imposed by the covid panic, we need a wholesale culling of politicians, bureaucrats, NGO’s, civil servants advisers etc.
We also need the concept of self defence rigorously examined. If I’m accosted by a bunch of antifa/BLM/any other activists screaming in my face/intimidating me/blocking my path etc. I reserve the right to make sure they never consider doing it again as I have the right to live my life without said intimidation.
Therein lies the concept of Reasonable Force. Is it reasonable force for a frail, elderly, law abiding citizen to draw a weapon on these people? In my opinion, yes it is because the physical force necessary to comply with the law is well beyond these people.
Finally, there is the credibility of perpetrators, victims and witnesses in court. Our justice system, certainly in the UK has been badly eroded by a perpetrators criminal past not being revealed in court prior to sentencing. Doing so risks jeopardising the whole case. This is wrong!
A career criminal can present him/herself as a civically minded law abiding member of the community and his/her witnesses similarly so when, in fact, they are known to be lying, cheating, violent subversive elements infecting our society.
Their historic criminal conduct should be revealed up front and considered relevant to the case in hand. Sentencing guidelines should be just that, not a prescription for Judges to adhere to.
Rant over!
“When will we all just face reality and admit to each other that the wearing of masks and “social distancing” are simply NOT WORKING as intended?”
I will, as soon as that is shown to be the case. The claims for this, pro and con, are all over the map. I have seen no definitive proof of anything in this regard.
The whole thing was a massive act of terrorism, or perhaps a storm of terrorisms, orchestrated by the most evil beings on the planet.
We will recover (most of us), but I wonder if any lessons were learned — or will all this happen again next year?
We really really need ammunition manufacturers in the U.S.
“Massive economic loss, increased deaths, and young men causing trouble in the streets” due to corona virus is compounded by the transfer of US manufacturing to China. Transferring manufacturing from one country to another also transfers upward economic mobility. It is the reduced prospect for jobs and upward mobility that results in young men causing trouble in the streets. What else can they do? A comparison of recent urban images of Detroit and Beijing illustrates this point. The pursuit of profit via globalization and the virtue in reducing fossil fuel fuel emissions appear to be the main factors that drove this, possibly irreversible, transfer from the US side.
Lockdowns are a psych-op by various leftist, Marxoid, globalist, Chicom, rabid green, and anti-Trump forces. Whether they engineered the whole thing from the get-go or just picked up the ball and ran with it I don’t know. But various actors have been hoping for something like this for a long time. Gormless politicians deferring to third-rate medical bureaucrats are destroying our social fabric. Social distancing is BS. Lockdowns are unnecessary. Covid testing is a waste of time and money. But they can’t shut down the scam now. They have dug themselves in too deep. They are praying for a deux ex machina solution to save their asses.
“Whether they engineered the whole thing from the get-go or just picked up the ball and ran with it I don’t know.”
Gates and co staged a ‘simulation’ of exactly these kind of lockdowns late last year. It was all planned, they just needed a virus so they could set it into action.
A covid-19 vaccine can be approved for general use even if it is only 50% effective in preventing the disease. https://tinyurl.com/yxuufu25
Henry Ford Health System study found that HCQ reduced death rate from covid by 50%. https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study
Swiss and French experience showed 2 to 3 times higher death rate when HCQ use was temporarily stopped. http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof
However, in the U.S., in spite of the above and tens of millions of doses used over several decades with no serious side effects; and in spite of knowing that treatment should be started as soon as possible; after hospitalization is probably too late. This is what doctors and the public get from a government bureaucracy:
“FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems.”
The question is: Why is HCQ use restricted in the U.S. only to conditions where it is expected to be ineffective?
“The question is: Why is HCQ use restricted in the U.S. only to conditions where it is expected to be ineffective?”
It’s got to be political.
All the studies about HCQ that claim to have found physical harm were done on patients that were already sick and hospitalized, and some of the studies did not include an antibiotic, and some did not include zinc, and some included very high doses of the drug.
The doctors who are enthusiastic about the HCQ treatment say the medicine should be given to a person as soon as the infection is detected, and in those cases, some doctors are reporting a 100 percent success rate (that being that the patient did not have to be hospitalized). And no adverse health effects were found among this group of people.
The doctors suggest giving the HCQ treatment to those most vulnerable, the older people and people who already have complicating heath conditions.
Based on the suspicion that the Wuhan virus may be doing more long-term damage, even in asymptomatic people, than we currently realize, I would suggest that every person, regardless of their risk category, be given the HCQ treatment after testing positive for the Wuhan virus.
Leaving the Wuhan virus in the body when there is a way (HCQ) to remove it quickly is a bad idea. I think we are gambling with our long-term health by allowing the virus to run its natural course in the body. We have a way to interrupt that natural course, and we should do so. Just in case.
Just put a great new graphic in the head post …
w.
Willis, I can accept your cost estimate for lockdowns. Have you done a cost estimate for health care destruction? I keep repeating that the whole scare was that health care would be destroyed. and that was the reason lockdowns were imposed.
At the extreme of no health and pharmacy care, I do not believe a western economy would survive either, and the results would be worse, with people dying at home in droves. The point is one has to demonstrate that with a, b,c, measures the health care system would survive and the virus would be contained. That is what is missing in the politician’s decision making. They followed the doctors advice who only know how to keep operation rooms sterile.
I hope that analysis of the world data will prevent such a panic in a similar case, but this had not happened before and politicians played safe for the health care system.
I am surprised at such an unscientific article that ignores the data. Under 14s death rate reduced during lockdown, because they arent out doing reckless things. EUROMO data (And this could well be true for under 30s, though I dont have data for that groups specifically, given that they also dont die from COVID. )
In the UK people exercised more during lockdown. I dont know if this was the same in the US.
And as for quoting the US with some alarmist drivel about ‘there could be famines’ is really very amusing on a sceptical website that has for decades ridiculed the UN for its alarmist statements.
Look, lockdown was BS, we know that, but dont try to dress it up, it doesnt need dressing up, you dont need to make a stronger case against it, it stands on its own.
No clue what you are talking about. Where did anyone say “there could be famines”? Who said anything about the UN.
QUOTE THE DANG WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING AS REQUESTED!!!
Grrrr …
w.
That was a head scratcher, Willis. I was about to make a snide comment myself, after searching the page for “famine” and only finding his post and your reply to it. But while double checking by eye, I noticed by happenstance the iceberg graphic has a line under the heading FAMINE that he must be referring to:
“UN Food agency chief: World could see famines of ‘Biblical proportions’ within months”
” Under 14s death rate reduced during lockdown, because they arent out doing reckless things”
That sounds interesting. Can you attach numbers to that”
Under 14s death rate reduced during lockdown
Citation please. If you can’t cite it, I’ll have to assume you are pulling it out of your rear.
And this could well be true for under 30s, though I don’t have data for that groups specifically
So far you haven’t shown you have data for *any* groups, you’ve just made an assertion without anything to back it up. Until you do all you’ve shown us is an opinion, not data.
Only in a world that has become to interconnected, could nations be trying to out perform each other, in their effort to developing anti social policies.
How is it possible that nations as all powerful as the USA have become ensnared and caught up in this world wide virus induced political madness?
Why are places as opposite as Australia and Canada are, both geographically and seasonally, doing the very same things at the same time to combat a seasonal viral outbreak? A seasonal virus that is proving to be pretty insignificant as far a virus outbreaks go.
Nations have trashed their economies, for what? Administrations, collectively behaving in a mad panicked rush, to show they are bending the knee to acknowledge the virus and be seen to do something about it.
Why?
The average age of those who have died from the Covid 19 infection here in the UK is 82. The number of people listed as victims is under review, with evidence a plenty that the numbers of those who died from the virus, have been massively overstated.
This all begs the question, why have so many nations with completely separate social norms, behaved in this mass hysterical fashion? What is the common connection that has driven sane, normally slow to move administrations, to behave so urgently and so disastrously, destroying the economic security and opportunities for upcoming generations?
Covid 19 does not affect children, yet the action of governments, all across the world to “control” the virus, will ensure, it is our children that pay the highest price for absolutely nothing. They have done nothing wrong, yet they are being punished and made to pay.
Why?
And yet there seems little doubt the virus – and not anything else – has killed 186,000 Us citizens and that after lockdowns eased the cases went from the low 20 thousands to over 40 thousand and even much more for the last 2 months.
The rest of the world does not understand why US citizens are unable to take or understand basic health precautions and instead base their response on internet memes, conspiracy theory and the fringe elements of domestic politics.
If you had responded like Germany you’d basically have just small outbreaks left to deal with and a death total under 40,000
“And yet there seems little doubt the virus – and not anything else – has killed 186,000 Us citizens”
Really? Because the CDC recently announced that only 6% of those deaths were actually due to this virus. That’s about 10,000 people.
So clearly they have more than a little doubt about your numbers.
#trustthexpertsdude
Everything about this entire covid fiasco is stupidity on steroids. Official responses such as mandating mask-wearing and enforcing social distancing are anti-human. It’s Na zi stuff. Locking people up and preventing travel makes a mockery of our supposed civil freedoms. It’s Stalinism in C minor. Big brother has become a medical bureaucracy. Orwell only got the year wrong. He meant 2024. Every year new variants of respiratory viruses emerge from Asia, because of people there living in close proximity to livestock, pigs and poultry in particular. So is this going to be the new normal going forward? This insane overreaction by the media and governmental bodies? This absurd medicalization of life? To paraphrase Alice in Wonderland, the world has gone entirely bonkers.
Score:-
Coronavirus- 1
Humans – nil
Modern government is institutionalized stupidity.
How different would this situation be if it happened in 2019 instead of 2020…?
All because the elderly have a high tendency to vote. Not that there’s anything wrong with that – I think the voting age should have been RAISED by the 26th Amendment. Call me a cynic….
Willis Eschenbach September 1, 2020 at 7:14 pm
Ghalfrunt, I fear you have it backwards. The issue is not that COVID is so mild. It is that locking down a modern economy is insanely costly in all aspects
—————————
Case fatality rate is about 2% https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Herd immunity is estimated at 70% of population https://www.mayoclinic.org/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 assuming assuming immunity is retained.
US population 328 million
need 200 million infected for herd immunity
and that would give of the order of 4million dead.
and of course a large number of people with long term health problems.
and it is not just the old and those with co-morbidities that will die or become debilitated.
are these figures that suggest letting covid 19 have its way with society?
of course I could have misunderstood the figures but i’m sure you will point this out. Thanks
You’re incorrect (out of date?) on both the CFR and herd immunity threshold:
– The CDC revised the mean estimate of Covid CFR back in May to 0.26% … there are dozens of papers out since revising it further, but still, 2 is an order of magnitude off-base.
– Herd Immunity estimates have been rapidly revised due to HETEROGENEITY of “spreader” tendency, sorry for lack of better diction. Those with more contacts “get it first, spread it more, become immune faster” … I’d note that asymptomatic case data from cruise ship follow-up is around half for over 73, up to 90% for under 20 age groups. This matters. Here’s a “primer” on heterogeneity in the models:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v2
– Data from Italy, Spain, UK and Belgium were analyzed in another paper – herd starts kicking in anywhere from 6% to 20% of population, based on data from those countries, modeled with heterogeneity of contacts. Sorry I don’t have time to dig up the paper I have a conference call in five minutes. It’s out there. Good News.
BY THE WAY – EVERYONE … I suggest you google “NAC Italy influenza” and consider augmenting the Vitamin D3, C, and zinc you should be taking every day with NAC. Sorry again I’d link the paper if I had time, but the argument for loading with NAC (2/3 of a glutamate molecule) as a guard against the actual disease metabolics here is very strong. Gotta run. Thumbs up.
US divorce rates were up 34% over 2019 in March through June. Marriage is another casualty of the lockdowns.
Flatten the Curve became Stay Home, Stay Safe.
Rhetorical Questions:
Why did the original protests in the US pick up so much steam and go worldwide?
Why do they continue and only Floyd is used vs Breonna Taylor? And now Jacob Blake?
Why a mask mandate now vs one earlier if they were so “safe” as to “flatten the curve”?
My opinionated answers:
1. Because people are sick to death of being in lockdown and are using any excuse to protest against their government without actually saying so–because of the cultural theme behind Flatten the Curve (i.e. if you don’t, you don’t support your health community) and Stay Safe, Stay Home (public shaming as if you don’t care).
2. Because Breonna Taylor was a black female cop.
3. Fear of a run on masks like the one on TP.
I want to know 2 things: 1. Why is this coronavirus now a superbug that can invade anything, stay around forever, is basically Thanos on steroids in the virus world? 2. What happens when the vaccine starts causing death? Will the news be buried or will it go the route of some other questionable vaccines and left to be debated by the antivaxxers?
Were lockdowns necessary? IMO, No. Was this virus preemptively declared a pandemic? Yes. Has this always been a political tool? Maybe but I don’t think so, I think this has been more a tool of the health industry which has politicians in their deep pockets. Will any other pandemic be allowed by the people to be this economically devastating? No. Why? Because I’m not the only one in the world that has recognized how Flatten the Curve became Stay Home, Stay Safe in 4 months. Nor am I the only one that realizes this will have lasting implications in the future.
“Breonna Taylor, a 26-year-old African-American emergency medical technician, was fatally shot by Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) officers …”
When the officer, no matter their skin color, says drop the weapon, keep your hands in view, what do you do? Everything after that choice is on you, no matter your skin color.
A simple honest and reasoned covid medical video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nqgZn9Izv8&t=320s
includes continuing problems after recovery
“this week the CDC quietly updated the Covid number to admit that only 6% of all the 153,504 deaths recorded actually died from Covid. 9,210 deaths . The other 94% had 2 to 3 other serious illnesses and the overwhelming majority were of very advanced age; 90% in nursing homes”
Actually, looking at all the available video and photos it is angry young women causing the trouble in the streets. I would say for the most part the guys are there because the girls are there. Same logic as guys hanging out around Planned Parenthood abattoirs holding signs that say they are pro-choice.
Yeah, and most of the protesters are white people.
Back when George Floyd was first murdered, it was said of the hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets, that blacks made up about one in six protesters. Most of the rest were white.
That ratio still appears to be valid. Bet this is pissing actual black folks off, them being blamed, yet again, for problems created by whitey. Almost like a cyclical thing, ya know, like climate or somethin’.
While I’m not 100% a fan of peer review – the study in question was paid for by the news org in question.
And the study involved a whole lot of modeling.
From the article: “And tragically, I was right about angry young men on the streets. ”
You foresaw George Floyd’s death on March 21, 2020?
Thanks, Tom.
Nope. I foresaw that penning people up in their houses like cattle and taking away their jobs and closing the schools would lead to violence in the streets. Which is what I said.
w.
Being penned up and socially distanced might have contributed a little bit to the emotion of the protests of George Floyd’s death, but I would contend that had it not been for his death, there would be no widespread rebellion, or people in the streets, over the lockdown. Certainly not to the scale that we saw with the George Floyd protests.
Thanks, Tom. I’d say that it takes a match to light a fire, but if as with the riots the wood is dry and primed to burn, any match will do.
I’d also say without the lockdowns the Floyd riots would have been much more on the scale of the Ferguson riots.
w.
The left has been priming this “fire” for a long time, Floyd, career criminal, was just a convenient igniter.
Indeed thanks.
I put some links to the collateral damage in http://www.moralindividulism.com/covextra.doc.