Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I put up a post calling for the end of the American lockdowns some five months ago, on March 21st, a week after the first lockdowns here in California.
In that post I made three predictions: massive economic loss, increased deaths, and young men causing trouble in the streets, viz:
The economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is going to be huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. Think pissed off young men out of a job and drinking on the street because no place is open, even though of course it’s illegal to be on the street.
Clearly the economic damage has been overwhelming. And tragically, I was right about angry young men on the streets.
Regarding the final point, deaths, I was interested to be pointed to a study entitled COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself. They looked at the well-established numbers relating increased deaths to the loss of jobs. Then, given the ages of the people involved, they figured out the “life-years” lost.
Here’s the money quote:
Combining these analyses, we found that an estimated 18.7 million life-years will be lost in the United States due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Comparative data analysis between nations shows that the lockdowns in the United States likely had a minimal effect in saving life-years. Using two different comparison groups, we estimate that the COVID-19 lockdowns in the U.S. saved between a quarter to three quarters of a million life-years.
The lockdowns cost ten times the number of life-years saved from coronavirus … a double-plus ungood plan. Turns out staying home is far from safe, not even including the enormous economic cost.
And that was back in the peak of the infections when the lockdowns actually might have been making a difference. Now, at the tail end of the story, the imbalance is worse—people are still out of work, economic costs continue to mount, and every day fewer lives are being affected by the virus.
In the face of all of this, all I can do is repeat what I said back on March 21st …
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWNS!
PS—When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing, so we can avoid at least some of the misunderstandings plaguing the intarwebs …