Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I put up a post calling for the end of the American lockdowns some five months ago, on March 21st, a week after the first lockdowns here in California.
In that post I made three predictions: massive economic loss, increased deaths, and young men causing trouble in the streets, viz:
The economic damage from the current insane “shelter-in-place” regulations designed to thwart the coronavirus is going to be huge—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, economic downturn, stock market losses. This doesn’t count the personal cost in things like increased suicides and domestic and other violence. Think pissed off young men out of a job and drinking on the street because no place is open, even though of course it’s illegal to be on the street.
Clearly the economic damage has been overwhelming. And tragically, I was right about angry young men on the streets.
Regarding the final point, deaths, I was interested to be pointed to a study entitled COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself. They looked at the well-established numbers relating increased deaths to the loss of jobs. Then, given the ages of the people involved, they figured out the “life-years” lost.
Here’s the money quote:
Combining these analyses, we found that an estimated 18.7 million life-years will be lost in the United States due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Comparative data analysis between nations shows that the lockdowns in the United States likely had a minimal effect in saving life-years. Using two different comparison groups, we estimate that the COVID-19 lockdowns in the U.S. saved between a quarter to three quarters of a million life-years.
The lockdowns cost ten times the number of life-years saved from coronavirus … a double-plus ungood plan. Turns out staying home is far from safe, not even including the enormous economic cost.
And that was back in the peak of the infections when the lockdowns actually might have been making a difference. Now, at the tail end of the story, the imbalance is worse—people are still out of work, economic costs continue to mount, and every day fewer lives are being affected by the virus.
In the face of all of this, all I can do is repeat what I said back on March 21st …
END THE AMERICAN LOCKDOWNS!
w.
PS—When you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing, so we can avoid at least some of the misunderstandings plaguing the intarwebs …
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Mass hysteria has become very popular.
“The lockdowns cost ten times the number of life-years saved from coronavirus … a double-plus ungood plan.”
18.7 million life-years / 0.75 million life-years =25 times the damage, not just 10 times.
At 18.7 / 0.25 = 75 times the damage!!!!! There is no freakin’ way there should have been a lockdown of any kind.
Beware the politician who says,”If it even saves one life.”
That means he/she/it does not think the proposed bad idea will do anything thing at all.
There’s also that whole total loss of liberty and freedom thing. I’m not sure if I”m more amazed or appalled at how easily my fellow citizens gave it up.
You didn’t have a choice they enacted emergency powers it is the ability of them alone to determine when it’s appropriate to use those powers that is the problem.
My feeling on the issue is they should be able to only use the powers for a period long enough to have a reasoned debate and vote either in a court or whole government as to extending the powers. You can see the situation where a decision may need to be made by a single person for speed to get things under control but prolonged use of the powers should go to a vote somehow.
Very good point and solution. Since they changed the definition of a pandemic in 2008/9 to not require large losses of life they can pretty much do it for any flu season if they wish. Not what we signed up for when “emergency powers” were made law.
“You didn’t have a choice they enacted emergency powers”
You always have a choice.
If millions of people had said ‘no’ and just ignored these ’emergency powers’, there’d be nothing the government could do.
‘If millions of people had said ‘no’ and just ignored these ’emergency powers’, there’d be nothing the government could do.’
And that was my point. It didn’t happen.
I’m stubborn as all hell, but I’m just one guy.
Yea, I and my son have kept living our lives normally. We are only two people.
LdB you said “My feeling on the issue is they should be able to only use the powers for a period long enough to have a reasoned debate and vote either in a court or whole government as to extending the powers. You can see the situation where a decision may need to be made by a single person for speed to get things under control but prolonged use of the powers should go to a vote somehow.”
Well we kinda have that except the governor is to go ask our legislature to go past 30 days. The governor didn’t ask for an extension and our legislature just let it happen. One of the perils of a single ruling party in a state.
It is a subtle form of tyranny. Businesses were given just enough leeway under new strict rules to stay partially open, so they had to play along, especially those who must have a government license to operate (a requirement that has proliferated in recent years), in order to try to salvage some of their business prospects going forward. So we all went along. The biggest demographic that didn’t play along is young people portrayed as being eager to get out and “party,” and they continue to be roundly criticized for frequently ignoring the restrictions. They unwittingly May be heroes for refusing to play along.
Our collective approach to this ‘pandemic’ (hate that word) has been poor. Some of that is excusable as there were initially so many unknowns; and even now, despite more and better data, much is still unclear. However, we could have been clearer all along about our OBJECTIVE FUNCTION. Did we respond based on an objective of “Minimizing CoVID-19 cases”? “Minimizing CoVID-19 deaths”? “Minimizing net deaths caused by CoVID-19 plus incremental net deaths caused by our response to CoVID-19”?
Willis’s piece here seems to focus on that last objective function: he argues that we may have lost a whole lot of lives – – ‘non-CoVID-19 lives’ – – by virtue of our responses to CoVID-19. I suspect that is true.
However, even that falls short (IMHO) of the metric we should probably have been trying to optimize: “Keeping as low as possible the number of Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost to the virus – – or lost to our responses to the virus – – while optimizing for the economic and cash costs of our responses”. In effect, we need to make sure that our response to CoVID-19 (trying to keep infections and deaths ‘down’) doesn’t either cause a great many additional non-CoVID-19 deaths, or cost ‘too much’ in dollars spent or lost economic production (income, profit, wealth).
How much is ‘too much’? Well, for better or worse we have a number that we assign to the value of a ‘QALY’ and in the US, where I live, that number is about $140,000. In the UK, where I grew up, it’s a bit over half that.
Has anyone seen a rigorous attempt to estimate our “cost per saved QALY” in the CoVID-19 context?
Me neither. I did see ONE rather sketchy attempt that came out of the UK. It had very high error bands but it ranged from a best case of “Yes, our response has ended up such that our cost per saved-QALY is about equal to our estimated monetary value of a QALY”, to a worst case (if memory serves) of “Oops! Our response has cost about 10-20 times that”.
About a month ago, just for fun, I tried to compute my own estimate for the US response. Looking back on that attempt, I now realize that I left out entirely the possibility of “additional lives lost” (non-CoVID-19 lives lost that is) as a result of our response to CoVID-19. Even without that important term in the equation, I still got a cost per saved-QALY of 10-20 times the US $140,000. If I were to add in an estimate of many (on-average younger) lives lost to our responses to CoVID-19 that multiple would go up a great deal. It could even approach infinity!
I certainly wouldn’t stand by my estimate; it was very much a scratch-pad exercise.
What amazes me, though, is that despite the tens of billions of words blared on this topic, by ignorant, self-serving mayors and governors (yes, I live in New York), by the media, by the guy at the deli, by Tony F. and Deb Birx, basically by everyone……nobody seems to have defined the correct objective function.
WUWT readers and contributors are a tough audience, so I am fully prepared to stand corrected here, but……still going to hit ‘Post Comment’!
Peter wrote: “Our collective approach to this ‘pandemic’ (hate that word) has been poor. Some of that is excusable as there were initially so many unknowns; and even now, despite more and better data, much is still unclear.”
Good point. We shouldn’t be expecting perfect execution during such a period of uncertainty. Everyone is stumbling around in the dark. Even now.
Peter wrote: “However, we could have been clearer all along about our OBJECTIVE FUNCTION. Did we respond based on an objective of “Minimizing CoVID-19 cases”? “Minimizing CoVID-19 deaths”? “Minimizing net deaths caused by CoVID-19 plus incremental net deaths caused by our response to CoVID-19”?”
The stated purpose of the lockdowns was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients. That was successful.
Well, Tom, that was the initial purpose. I was referring to our broader, society-wide response to CoVID-19. In this morning’s NY newspaper, they have one article saying that the test positivity rate has held at under 1% in NY State for 4 straight weeks, and that NY City’s current rate is 0.7%. Another article discusses Cuomo’s newly-minted rules for allowing City restaurants to re-open their indoor seating: he wants a dedicated squad of 4,000 ‘restaurant police’ to enforce compliance with whatever additional arbitrary rules he comes up with. (Yet another article discusses how many have already gone out of business, and how many more are likely to without some easing of rules.) Meanwhile, there is a plausible basis for thinking that NY State, or at least the Greater New York City area has already crossed the so-called herd-immunity threshold. THIS is the context in which I ask what objective function we should be using.
Great article Wills and a great call on 21Mar2020. I independently published a very similar call on the same day:
wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/21/to-save-our-economy-roll-out-antibody-testing-alongside-the-active-virus-testing/#comment-2943724
21Mar2020
LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH:
Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/end-the-american-lockdown/comment-page-1/#comment-12253
22Mar2020
This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.
As rare as it was, our correct calls were not that difficult – most of the early data was junk, but there was credible mortality data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and a few other sources.
I cannot believe that the professional epidemiologists were all that incompetent – the full-Gulag lockdown is looking more and more like a huge global scam – not unlike the CAGW/green energy scam – and for the same totalitarian political objectives.
The full lockdown was originally intended to prevent the “tsunami of cases from swamping out medical system” – A TSUNAMI OF CASES that NEVER HAPPENED! Medical people knew this reality by about mid-March, ~two weeks into the lockdown, but our Alberta hospitals were essentially emptied for over two months!
Since then, the lockdown has been extended through today, about six months, and has squandered trillions of dollars and harmed billions of people, and for what? The lockdown has NOT saved lives – all it has done is prolong the life of the virus by delaying herd immunity – it may even allow the virus to continue into the next flu season.
Forget vaccines. Every flu virus in human history dies the same way – via herd immunity – and the lockdown has only served to delay herd immunity and cause enormous economic and human harm.
Sweden did it mostly right (no lockdown) and has achieved herd immunity, and most other countries did it entirely wrong.
It was obvious by about 1March2020 that Covid-19 was a relatively mild flu, considerably milder than the 2017-2018 seasonal flu and others, and essentially only dangerous to the very elderly and very infirm. The workforce and students were barely affected – many were asymptomatic.
It is really difficult to believe that supposedly intelligent “medical experts” could be this stupid for this long – the full-Gulag lockdown looks more like a deliberate scam every passing day.
PLANDEMIC OR SCAMDEMIC? https://youtu.be/X6pzXrEBqR0
I’ve said for months that Covid-19 was not a very dangerous flu except for the very elderly and infirm – Covid-19 was less dangerous than the 2017-2018 seasonal flu that nobody even remembers.
The life expectancy of most of those who died from Covid-19 was months, not years – these old folks were already at the end of their journey. More evidence:
94 PERCENT OF COVID-19 DEATHS IN US HAVE CONTRIBUTING HEALTH CONDITIONS, CDC SAYS
By Paula Liu
September 2, 2020
https://www.theepochtimes.com/94-percent-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-have-other-contributing-health-conditions-cdc-says_3484659.html
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently updated information regarding COVID-19 deaths, indicating that 94 percent of them had other contributing health conditions.
________________________
Also: American and British stats are upwardly skewed because, like New York State, the Brits deliberately sent Covid-19 infected patients back into old folks homes – idiocy or worse.
Willis, it is obvious that the lockdowns are not for a medical purpose. It has been apparent for several months that more people are dying due to lockdowns than are saved by them.
The reason for the lockdowns is entirely political and is already being used by WEF. Search for: Great Reset WEF January
This is the same as the use of Climate Change and the Paris Accord which was nothing to do with climate but which was taking too long as Trump had been elected blocking the Paris Accord. Search for: Figueres capitalism.
“lockdowns not for medical reasons”
Very true now for some time, if not always.
Thanks for the post Willis.
Also the “peaceful protests” are not simply angry young men who lost a job. They are a well coordinated color revolution planned for some time working hand in hand with the DNC ( follow the money) and the anti American one world CAGW crowd.
“They are a well coordinated color revolution planned for some time working hand in hand with the DNC”
You speak the truth. When $100K+ BLM, Inc. buses are lined up 6 in a row to take the radicals to the next town? an excellent article on the destruction by invading anarchists.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/30/corporate-media-didnt-report-what-its-really-like-in-kenosha-wisconsin-so-i-will/
THE GREAT RESET: A UNIQUE TWIN SUMMIT TO BEGIN 2021
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/about
• “The Great Reset” will be the theme of a unique twin summit in January 2021, convened by the World Economic Forum.
• “The Great Reset” is a commitment to jointly and urgently build the foundations of our economic and social system for a more fair, sustainable and resilient future.
• It requires a new social contract centred on human dignity, social justice and where societal progress does not fall behind economic development.
• The global health crisis has laid bare longstanding ruptures in our economies and societies, and created a social crisis that urgently requires decent, meaningful jobs.
• The twin summit will be both in-person and virtual, connecting key global governmental and business leaders in Davos with a global multistakeholder network in 400 cities around the world for a forward-oriented dialogue driven by the younger generation.
So, globalized socialism. Got it.
“Globalized Socialism”, well actually it is “Global Totalitarianism” – closer to the old hereditary Absolute Monarchies. Think North Korea, Cuba and Canada.
“Socialism is just the nice-sounding term used by the wolves to sell their dictatorship to the sheep.
Read 20th Century history: Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and Mao – all “Socialists” – but actually all Absolute Dictators who killed about 200 million people, mostly their own citizens!
Can we not learn from history? Do we really have to do this again? Apparently we do.
Got to use the terms the targeted sheep can understand. One thing advertising teaches, don’t over complicate things. Lots of useful and cheap products went down in flames because of over complicated sales pitches. And yes, far too many people are sheep, easily herded, easily confused and easily cowed.
Here in the UK I couldn’t go to say a Cricket match as crowds Are not permitted and would have to wear a muzzle in a shop or on public transport. Other than that we can do most things unless you are in a local lockdown because of an upsurge in local infections.
What’s your definition of a lockdown in America, what are the practical limits to the things you are allowed to do?
Tonyb
There is so much variation from State to State, and within states, and things change such that one has to search to get some idea. We simply call a place – bank, medical office, and so on – and ask what’s happening there. We live in a rural area with a small town 10 miles away. Living in a large city in an apartment tower is unimaginable.
Example, a month ago I had a filling come out and wanted the dental office to have a look. I had to wear a mask, wait outside, a technician came and got me, and took my temperature. Three weeks later I still had to wear a mask but the door was unlocked, but checking in I still had my temperature taken.
What is seriously odd is the difference on individuals. We are retired with retirement funds. We are doing fine. Many folks we know have had their livelihoods and wealth destroyed, while others are trying to hold on – restaurants limited to take-out or half-or-less seating. Some have already closed for good. Much wealth has been destroyed.
You can spend hours reading about such things. One first gets sad, and then angry.
I work in a federally funded research institution in an area in which there are several such institutions that employ several thousand in total. Even today and since mid-March about 99% of the employees are “working” remotely. Of these, I am not aware of any furloughs or layoffs. Most of these jobs are laboratory jobs and the labs are for the most part are not being used, just consuming utilities in basically an idle mode. It’s a huge waste.
John F Hultquist, great post! My family lives in Iowa. In mid-July, we left our fair state and headed South to Fayetteville, AR., to stay the night. They we drove to Vicksburg, Mississippi and then down to New Orleans. From there, we headed East with a stay at Orange Beach, Alabama before heading to Orlando. After that, we drove to Palm Coast to swim with dolphins before driving North to St. Augustine. Jacksonville, up thru Augusta, Asheville only to eventually settle into a cabin betwixt Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, TN for a few days. My point? Every state was wildly different in their requirements and how you were treated should you not follow those mandates.
One of the most memorable moments on the trip was when a tour guide in NOLA said, as he was tearing up, “Everyone is asking how they can help. Well, the answer to that is exactly what you two families are doing, which is, going on vacation and going out to do the things that you would if there wasn’t all of this misinformation around. You guys are saving little companies like us and for that we are thankful. Go home and tell other’s to do the same!”.
It was a crazy interesting trip and I’m sure our boys will remember this one forever!
Tony
Here in Melbourne
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stage-4-restrictions-covid-19
As Steve Mosher has previously highlighted, there is no unit of “lockdown”.
But each lockdown has:-
A. Benefits.
B. Direct financial costs.
C. Indirect financial costs.
D. Other health costs.
E. Social costs.
Any analysis must consider all of the above.
The following may sound harsh but, the cost and benefits are not shared equally.
My daughter, nephews and nieces have not gone to school for months. For them the lockdown is a huge unmeasurable Cost, without any real benefit.
The “benefits” are the absolute smallest part of that equation.
Some pigs are more equal.
But even if you put lipstick on them … 🙂
It seems odd that a multi-millionaire wouldn’t have her own hair dryer. 😉
But in a way, this is good news. There are numerous instances of politicians at every level ignoring the rules they have imposed. Even they realize that it’s all nonsense.
She can’t help herself getting out and lecturing the deplorables.
My first thought was why didn’t she have the stylist come to her home, pretty sure she has at least one bathroom around the shanty.
Tony.
It’s not cricket season in Australia.
But all our football codes have been impacted.
Although top sporting leagues are still going due to income from advertising.
All local and junior sport has stopped.
Even if allowed- no spectators = no beer sales = equals no money = no pay for players.
Most semi professional leagues are supported by local bars and clubs or beer taking at ground.
Bars and clubs all closed
The lockdown in Victoria has revealed special pleading for exemptions on an industrial scale. Those who have whinged the most correlate with being in the least vital of jobs. Example, sports people like AFL footballers have been among the loudest seeking special treatment and getting it. Meanwhile, more essential people like nurses and doctors have mostly stayed silent and got on with the job of working in the high risk environment of hospitals and nursing homes. So, when the fuss is over and the rebuild of the economy starts, we have some good guidelines about which sectors have earned a place near the top of the line and which are self serving, deserving no consideration.
Economic planners have seldom mentioned any concern for those like me in the very high risk group where death is a likely outcome from catching this virus. Instead, they do theoretical calculations as if all people have equal risk, in a detatched manner aimed at showing how vital their work is.
The big concern is the conduct and performance of our Victorian State politicians. Blatantly, they are bypassing long time conventions and bullying their way to positions of power that have done away with review and checks and balances that reduce the risk of unhealthy dictatorial conduct. In essence, we now have a dictator Premier. Already we have seen a rise in decisions unrelated to this virus, that will cause detriment but have had compensation, redress and review taken out of the usual process.
That is where some real indirect costs reside. These opportunities to increase uncontrolled political power have been grabbed. The envelope that used to contain acceptable politics has been broadened for future dictators.
It is all an unholy mess revealing the hands of excessive opportunists. Be very careful.
Geoff S
Geoff
Agreed.
It is possible that Dan Andrews has more pressure put on him from the horse racing industry than the education department. The spring racing carnival will be very interesting.
Here in Alberta we have to wear masks when we go into buildings, and all the social distancing
But I give credit to our chief medical officer Hinshaw, she said schools are ok to open with minimal distancing because the data shows kids are in no danger, and she pushed back against the teachers that wanted to halve the class sizes (for the kids) but of course that means hiring twice as many teachers, when the budget is already collapsed.
So good on her
My 10year old just got back from day 1
And alive
Will wonders never cease
Don’t wear the mask if you don’t want to. In Edmonton they give out the exemption cards like candy at Halloween and in Calgary a person is not required to prove they have an exemption. You tax dollars at work LMAO.
That is because Alberta privacy laws forbid, except under court order, your doctor disclosing your condition to anyone. Nice of the politicians to posture and pretend that they are relevant and on top of the situation by passing laws that can’t be enforced.
CrossIron is in the MD of Rockyview and no requirements there so sanity prevails in some parts for now.
masks are useless for general population use.
Oh, Pat, it is my view here in Edmonton that Dr. Hinshaw is public enemy number one. She has become obsessed with case numbers. Her thinking seems to be, if daily case numbers are decreasing, we are on track to eradicating the virus, but if they are increasing we are headed for mass infections. Of course, complete eradication of the virus is impossible in the absence of a vaccine or naturally acquired herd immunity, which means that Dr. Hinshaw’s obsession to limit new case numbers must eventually result in social and economic chaos. Meanwhile, as I write this, there are 50 people in Alberta in hospital with COVID-19. That is an absurdly small number in a province with a population of 4.371 people.
Dr. Hinshaw’s first priority has always been to keep the health care system from being overrun. Since she and all her friends work in the health care system, that puts her in a rather stark conflict of interest. She doesn’t seem to care about the people who work in restaurants or movie theatres or sports venues. She doesn’t care if most of the airlines go broke. She cares about the workers in her own industry. To Dr. Hinshaw, the health care system is not meant to serve Albertans. Albertans must make sacrifices for the good of the health care system.
The median age of the dead from COVID-19 is 83. Today the Edmonton Journal ran a story that said that two Albertans had died recently of COVID-19. One was over 80 and the other over 90. How do the deaths of such elderly people even qualify as a news story?
Keep in mind that the real economic pain has yet to strike. The CERB is about to run out (although my guess is that it will continue, under the auspices of Employment Insurance), and sooner or later the moratorium on commercial and residential evictions must end. Then there will be sorrow and chaos. Thousands of people are drawing down their retirement savings. I’ll bet a lot of credit cards are being maxed out, and at usurious interest.
99.5 percent of people infected with the novel coronavirus recover. 50 percent of the dead from COVID-19 are 83 or older. If we had known these outcomes in February, the draconian social and economic shutdowns we have since seen would not have been enacted.
Dr. Hinshaw has also said, repeatedly, that “everyone is at risk.” That might be true on an actuarial level, but in practical terms most people have no risk of serious illness at all. I do not know anyone who has had COVID-19. Do you? Dr. Hinshaw gets up there and warns of a catastrophe that is, to me anyway, invisible.
But we did “know the outcomes in February” or shortly thereafter from the Diamond Princess lockdown. Elderly and ill at risk, healthy young folks at minimum risk. Was obvious from the get-go.
Bingo. That was the point where we knew the disease was a mild one and the only ‘lockdowns’ should have been telling vulnerable people to stay home until herd immunity would save them.
“because the data shows kids are in no danger”
I sincerely hope that is correct, but all the data is not in yet. The Wuhan virus seems to have the ability to cause long-term adverse health problems even in some asymptomatic people. That would include children and young adutls.
The children are not out of the woods yet, imo. We’ll know a lot more in a few months, after schools get back in operation.
SARS-Cov-1, another coronavirus, infected about 8,000 people back in 2003, and about 800 of them died. Of the survivors, many still report long-term adverse health problems associated with their infection from SARS-Cov-1. The SARS-Cov-2 (Wuhan) virus looks to be following a similar path, so we should not dismiss this potential health problem associated with coronaviruses and long-term adverse health effects as inconsequential.
The hydroxychloriquin treatment, given early enough, would probably eliminate these long-term adverse health effects, as the treatment gets the virus out of the body in a matter of a few days versus allowing the virus to stay in the body for three to five weeks during the normal course of the infection.
Unfortunately, the HCQ treatment has been demonized for political reasons and as a consequence is not readily available to the average citizen. I’ll get mine, though, if it ever comes down to that. By hook or crook. 🙂
“but all the data is not in yet” All the data will never be in as long as there is political hay to be made from this “crisis”. Virusi burn themselves out as they progress through a population, the longer this is dragged out the more damage is being done to us. Here in PA Wolf and Richard Levine have just slammed another 90 days of this crap on small businesses which are already shutting down, all the while ramming our tax dollars into their pockets and laughing at people going bankrupt and losing everything they have. One positive, these moronic f**ks are insuring a massive landslide victory for Trump, no matter how much mailin vote fraud they commit.
Trump hired Fraudy Fauci and Birx and encouraged much of coronapanic. Yes, the Dems were 100 times worse, but Trump has not done all he should have. I suspect he is “controlled,” and is not able to carry out all he wants to.
In Iowa, Iowa State University will allow 25,000 fans in the stadium for the first football game on the 12th. That represents about 40% of stadium capacity and may be the largest crowd at any football game that weekend.
Fortunately, the virus has evolved and the disease has become less viable. So, now, we can mitigate the progress of social contagion, and look back and reconcile with the notable missteps of Planned Parent, stigmatizing an denying early treatment, and wearing viral concentrators in a successful bid to social distance… divide the population.
Thank you for correctly calling face diapers “viral concentrators.” They concentrate other pathogens as well. I expect a very serious flu season this year because of them.
Here in the UK there is a website dedicated to lockdown sceptics
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
Whilst UK oriented it does have some items of general interest as well as specific country related items
Tonyb
Panic2020
I agreed then, and still do.
Panic 2020 is related to Election 2020.
The remaining US lockdowns will ease dramatically after November 3rd.
I hear that NYC may not have indoor dining until June 2021.
The mayor is an idiot. He and the other idiot Cuomo are teaming up to destroy NYC. They can’t even beg people to come back.
“The mayor is an idiot. He and the other idiot Cuomo are teaming up to destroy NYC.”
An unbelievable display of stupidty on both their parts.
De Blasio is a disaster for New York City. The citizens ought to mount a recall petition to get this fool out of office before he completely destroys it. Of course, fools elected this fool so they may like what he is doing.
I heard yesterday that 500,000 people have already moved out of New York City. I guess *they* don’t like what De Blasio is doing. You can’t find a U-Haul trailer anywhere in New York.
What a disaster these radical Democrat fools are! Perhaps people’s eyes will be opened by this blatant stupidity that is causing great harm to millions of people. All because of the delusions of De Blasio and the failure of Cuomo to take any actions to help the situation.
Unbelievable! But True.
CaseDemic – https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=483&v=FU3OibcindQ&feature=emb_logo
I posted this link when it first came out. He has another earlier on seasonality of viruses in warm and cold climates that is also very interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSKjcltDkng&t=1125s
And a short one on all cause mortality data for the past 5-6 years.
I was saying the same thing in the UK in the tail-end of March. I was angry about the lockdown and thought it might be intended to prolong the virus. Now I am sure of it! The ‘Nightingale Hospitals’ put up at great expense were never needed but cancelled medical treatments and diagnoses have had terrible consequences.
I never stopped going out but with winter approaching and flu deaths exceeding covid deaths I expect the ‘project fear’ to ramp up to full speed again. After all, the budget airlines are not quite destroyed yet and economic destruction is not complete.
In my old age I am very cynical.
Margaret, as another oldie, I share your political cynicism and disgust.
Here in Ireland we are showered with “horse manure” – a favorite George Hook term – by politicians, their expert advisors and the media.
This past week a lady journalist warned “Reopening of schools akin to sending teachers and pupils into a building guaranteed to catch fire.” I am stunned that many parents do not publicly trash this garbage posing as journalism.
Old and very cynical? Like George Carlin got in his older years. Yes they appear to be dragging this out as long as possible, longer if needed. Why?
They are dragging this out as long as they can so they can force vaccines (yes, multiple) on us.
RFK Jr’s group has some interesting views about it as well.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/the-risks-vs-benefits-of-face-masks-is-there-an-agenda/
Quoting:
1. If you wanted to prevent the population from gaining herd immunity, which would further support the need and desire for a vaccine, what would be the best way to do that?
2. If you were successful at preventing people from developing natural immunity by keeping all the healthy and young low-risk people apart from one another and thus wanted to increase the chances for a second wave of the virus in a few months, how could you increase the chances of those people becoming infected and ensuring a second wave once they are released from quarantine and begin mingling?
Now match those two questions with the proper answers:
A. Suppress their immune systems with fear, loss of income, lack of exercise and sunshine and face masks whenever going away from home.
B. Keep the young and healthy people at home and sequestered from each other.
If you paired 1 with B, and 2 with A, congratulations! Welcome to the growing number of free-thinking people that are connecting the dots.
/Quoting:
And Fauci encourages everyone to get the influenza vaccine this fall right away
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-fauci-urges-americans-to-get-the-flu-vaccine-this-fall/ar-BB1795Ux
“This is one of the reasons why we’re telling people that, when the flu vaccine becomes available, make sure you get vaccinated so that you could at least blunt the effect of one of those two potential respiratory infections,”
Despite the FACT that Influenza Vaccine “Significantly Associated” With Increased Risk Of coronavirus
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647#!
The study found that those who had been vaccinated with the flu vaccine had a 36 percent higher risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.
Now being old and having been raised with George Carlin, Richard Pryor and Monty Python as my philosophical influences I must say that as paranoid as it sounds it does appear that they really really really want to vaccinate and chip everyone. Just saying …
Margaret lockdowns are intended to prolong the virus by design … it is deliberate and expected so if you noticed it then it’s working as intended. A flatter curve means the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. You know you had a flatter curve because they didn’t need your “Nightingale Hospitals” so you can expect it to take longer.
According to statistics, the curve had topped out before the lockdown so it would have all been over too soon. Some people are irrationally terrified. I’m glad I’m not the only one to reject the hype and scare tactics (the climate fraud has been a good teacher since the 70s).
As to “number of life-years” there are plenty of examples, it is now a question of how much, how many. Lots of blame to go around, brilliant guy who started our university computer program in the 60s cautioned me about them. Universities have needed a house cleaning for a long time before this. And many others. It is also a question now of not jumping out of the frying pan into the fire or throwing the babies out with the bath water, or did we do that already? I have been through several epidemics since and including polio, this has clearly been the worst one managed.
Lots of heroes around though, besides those in the weeds of the medical profession HEB in Texas should be running the government. Well, they probably have better sense, but have the right competence. Time to weed out the incompetents. Accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative.
A major element of American lockdowns involves restrictions on international air travel. Another element is restrictions of large gathering of crowds, particularly indoor.
And it seems in regards to public schools, it seems a major element involves doing in some intelligent manner. It seems that public school should be made to be safer then not going to school- and would require some intelligence.
Or one could say in regards to public schooling, one should alter how things are done due to the Chinese virus problem- or it’s involve steps taken to reduce the spread and/or “treatment” related to this pandemic. Though even when pandemic consider over, one continue to run public schools in similar fashion {viruses and infections will still be problem].
In terms of international air travel, like public schooling, it seems steps need to be taken before we go back to normal. I think we change mass transit in general so as to reduce the spread of viruses. And same applies to place where large number of people gather.
I agree with Willis. A classic example of “the cure is worse than the disease”. Hopefully the policy makers have learned something from this. Future historians will have a treasure trove of data to analyze and judge the wisdom or lack thereof in the decisions taken. Of course hindsight is 20/20, so we need to exercise some tolerance.
“. Hopefully the policy makers have learned something from this.”
Not here in BC Canada. Health minister and medical officer still bleeting about ‘SAFETY’. I see all around the social effects of the fear campaign. And the security of a pension seems pretty good now, but I cannot see how the massive ‘support’ program will be paid for except by inflation or higher taxation or both. My 3 kids have all been hit badly in economic terms, a daughter spent the last 6 weeks of a very difficult pregnancy and the first 3 weeks after delivery of twin in isolation in hospital. And the coming economic rectifications will ultimately hurt them in less inheritance as well.
All the low income workers are refusing to go back to work (have ‘medical’ condition or ‘vulnerable’ granny), pocketing $2000/month and allowed to earn another 1000 (at that point they stop working), and then maybe doing a bit of work for cash, or just drinking and smoking pot on holiday. And a lot of ‘working from home’ is a joke: it took us 3 weeks to arrange insurance for a boat – days to contact agent who would reply, and then days for him to contact underwriter: neither were available by phone or email during business hours.
Yes, I am very angry about the lockdowns. I am perfectly happy to submit to the risks of actually seeing my family in person. And I am responsible for my own life and resent wearing a mask on the ferries and other ‘designated’ places.
They have not learned yet. There is NO advice on such simple things as Vitamin D supplements from the “experts”. Many seniors that have died are Vitamin D deficient.
Oh they learned a lot… about how to use a crisis for political purposes. They just didn’t learn any of the lessons you’d hope they would.
We should have learned these lessons from the 1918-1920 “Spanish” flu, started in Kansas. They made all the same mistakes, even closing the Churches. At least one pastor was arrested. The US was supposedly more religious then–but there is a word: craven. It means so frightened that wrong actions are taken, increasing the danger.
Humanity rarely learns–but some of us do. I think about 1/3 of Americans have figured out that masks are bad and the panic is destructive. But majority rules. I have a problem with that. But how do we do any better? The Technocracy are brilliant people and they are currently suppressing truthful information. They cause craven fear in the public to sell more expensive things (Remdesivir at $1000 instead of hydroxychloroquine at $6 to 30, BigPharma drugs instead of God’s vitamins, etc. etc.). IQ is no answer.
Part of the answer is found in the book “The Wisdom of Crowds.” It gives the underpinnings of Democracy or a Republic (when it works), the advantages of a conservative or Libertarian philosophy, etc. But this requires full and independent information.
Currently, pollsters call samples of Americans to find out what their buttons are (no interest in your in-depth thought), and then position candidates according to 3 or 4 lowest common denominators. The whole nation receives the same shallow propaganda. So we get horrid politicians.
But reading The Wisdom of Crowds will make you a better citizen.
Thank you, Willis, for your insights on these foolish, insidious lockdowns. They are the result of the panic and failure of leadership at ALL levels of government around the world. This failure is in no small measure due to the apocalypse mentality that has gradually and insidiously infiltrated our cultural and political institutions over the years. Of course, the Left worldwide seeks to stoke this risk aversion, fear, and panic, as it means an increasing number of people will sacrifice their liberties for a little apparent security. This will mean not only the loss of liberty, but of security as well.
“Thank you, Willis, for your insights on these foolish, insidious lockdowns. They are the result of the panic and failure of leadership at ALL levels of government around the world.”
I recall stories of Italian hospitals being so overrun with patients that many patients died in the hallways of the hospitals because they didn’t have any rooms to put them in.
Wouldn’t you say avoiding that kind of situation is a good idea? That was the purpose of those initial “foolish, insidious” lockdowns. And the lockdowns worked for that purpose.
Now that overwhelming the hospital system is under control, the lockdowns should be eased, and have been eased in many places, although not everywhere which is the source of the continuing controversy.
Sorry, between the USNS Mercy and field hospitals rapidly set up in the city the “overrun the hospitals” meme was just that. The decade long neglect of emergency medical supply system in NY had far more to do with the situation, add to that Andrew The Insane ordering highly contagious patients be placed in facilities full of highly susceptible elderly people and disaster ensued. Same crap happened here in PA when Grab Da Money Wolf and his “expert” Richard Levine did same. Until people demand these criminal f**ks be held accountable for their crimes they will continue to victimize the elderly while enriching themselves with our tax dollars.
Agree, but these are not simply “angry young men.” These are PAID to be angry young men, who then attract other angry young men that also agreed to be PAID to act out. Not naming names (like Soros and other operatives behind the DNC), but you know who’s paying for it. And this isn’t really “political,” it’s economic. The politicos involved are those put in place and paid handsomely by those wanting total economic destruction of especially the West and especially of the US as well as financial destruction of its people.
The sovereignty of the US, and especially its Constitution, under attack for decades now, are the two major barriers to the powerful, megalomaniacal, arrogant, uberwealthy, sociopathic predator class behind this (think WEF, ClubofRome, CFR, Trilat.Comm, BMGF, Rockef.Found, WHO, Bilderbergs, and their central bank financiers and the families behind the banks, especially one family–R-s-d) that has planned for just such a created crisis for decades now. They want their technocracy in place, and that means they and their “experts” tell everyone else where to live, what to eat, how much money they can have, what they can spend it on, what they can (and cannot) discuss, and when to DIE! These evil people have already stated in so many words that we are massively overpopulated and that getting rid of oh, say, 80% would be very good for this world…or make that, for THEIR world. We are just the sheople, useless food and other resource consumers…resources that belong to THEM after all.
You are just so right, Willis. May I add the most cogent argument of them all against lockdowns : They represent unethical, inequitable legislation; inequitable because it harms some population groups far more than others (e.g. small, struggling business owners) – and unethical, because legislators did not follow the most basic, ethical rule of all : “Do unto others as you would them do unto you”.
“Climate Change”, Covid 19, and Black Lives Matter, are all backed by left wing revolutionary organizations. Plus it is an election year. The riots in the streets of the United States were pre-planned and set to go as soon as the first black man died in police custody. Floyd died Monday night, and by Friday organized riots were under way:
Thirty-four riots across the USA with pallets of bricks set out didn’t just spontaneously happen.
Since ~ 50% of total deaths were in elderly care homes, it would have made sense to look after this group and younger with lung, heart and diabetic problems.
The folk that died were already receiving care of some kind and the majority were out of the workforce anyway so the economy could have been spared. I thank my stars or whatever for not being in an old folks home, though (in my 80s). Those unfortunate people were corralled by idiot authorities in a Covid petri dish, especially in, apparently, largely Dem managed States. They were also denied HCQ (which certainly seemed to work in a number of places and was at worst a no regrets therapy) particularly again in the Dem States.
I hope some apolitical statisticians finally review all this stuff. In different circumstances, people like Gov Cuomo would be charged with negligent homicide. Man, If I get sick, I’m going to ask my doctor whom he voted for!
Gary, the CDC data just released actually contains the location of all deaths. About two-thirds were in hospital, and about a quarter in nursing homes|hospices.
Thanks as always for your cogent comments,
w.
Out of interest Willis pull out the number who were actually Health Workers if possible
In New York a COVID infected nursing home patient who was rushed to the hospital and died there was officially listed as a hospital death. And NY still had a huge percentage of nursing home deaths. Other states may have done the same.
Yes trying to put a black/white grid on variables is always funny. Imagine the ambulance taking the person to hospital crashes and the patient dies … does he die with or from covid 🙂
I am a criminal defense attorney. In my jurisdiction, the domestic violence cases are much higher than normal; there have been two people killed in DV incidents recently, one a 3 year old girl, the other a woman with a protection order against her assailant. Substance abuse cases (DUI and drug possession) and child abuse cases are higher than normal. On a procedural level, people are being denied their constitutional rights to confront accusers, to see a judge, to have statutory limits on the amount of time between proceedings, etc. i have trials set out to the end of January, because I refuse to have a trial over video.
I am with Willis–this needs to end, sooner rather than later.
Starzmom
Thanks for the interesting information.
Here in Melbourne. We have curfew, must be home by 8 pm. And no pubs.
Violent alcohol crime must be done.
So if Covid19 is so mild and not worthy of a lockdown. Why does wuwt post about how damaging the 1 month delay of declaring a pandemic by WHO and china???
Seriously?
Because China covered it up. Because the WHO let it happen.
And because taking one or both of those out of the equation means action could have been taking swiftly and eliminated or at least minimized global and US implications SUCH AS THE LOCKDOWNS THEMSELVES.
Michael Jankowski September 1, 2020 at 5:21 pm
————–
but large number of additional deaths are blamed on the delay by Trump (ignoring the 2 month lack of action by government)
My point is that most seem to believe it is no worse than seasonal flu. No one complains that warnings of flu outbreak are not given
“but large number of additional deaths are blamed on the delay by Trump (ignoring the 2 month lack of action by government) ”
Consider the source of the blaming: The lying Democrats.
Noone would have acted sooner than Trump acted on the Wuhan virus. Trump shut down traffic between China and the U.S. on Jan. 31, 2020, AGAINST the advice of ALL his advisors (all 21 of them). After Trump initiated the travel ban, all the Democrats, including Biden denounced the move.
So Trump moved faster than his advisors advised, and he moved faster than the Democrats wanted to move. So tell me again who would have moved faster than Trump on the Wuhan virus.
The answer is obvious. While Trump was shutting down travel from the infected area, the Democrats were condemning him for being a racist and were parading around Chinatown claiming there was no problem.
The Democrats are complete hypocrites. But we knew that.
Ghalfrunt,
I think what you just wrote is called poppycock.
I don’t recall it being called mild.
Lockdowns were supposed to “flatten the curve” or better said — keep the medical system from being overcome.
Once the medical systems were known to be okay, why are lockdowns continuing?
Further, why were there lockdowns in places with very few virus illnesses?
Why were other medical procedures withdrawn, with doctors and other staff left doing next to nothing?
Special hospitals were built — called nightingales, I think — mostly unused.
Had China and the UN-WHO helped with the issue very early, perhaps multiple spreaders into Milan, Seattle, and NYC could have been restricted, or discovered early.
So, it is not mild, and “time is of the essence.”
“Why were other medical procedures withdrawn, with doctors and other staff left doing next to nothing?”
I think this was one of the biggest mistakes made during the pandemic. Most hospitals could have stayed open for business as usual. Only a few areas were so overwhelmed with patients that the rooms were needed for Wuhan virus patients.
We live and learn. Next time we will do better. I hear China has another outbreak of another unknown, lethal disease going on now over there.
Ghalfrunt. September 1, 2020 at 3:36 pm
Ghalfrunt, I fear you have it backwards. The issue is not that COVID is so mild. It is that locking down a modern economy is insanely costly in all aspects—economic, life and death, relationships, domestic violence, suicides, crimes, the list goes on.
w.
All according to progressive agenda.
“So if Covid19 is so mild and not worthy of a lockdown. Why does wuwt post about how damaging the 1 month delay of declaring a pandemic by WHO and china?”
A statement and a question. Good point but here is my thinking on it.
Early on not much was known due to China covering things up. That they did is proven by the fact that both the mayor and provincial head of the CCP were “removed” for not following the protocol that had been put in place after 2003.
Not knowing much but knowing that the virus was a SARS variant is very scary. Last time SARS reared its ugly head it had a 8-10% kill rate (IFR) and now it’s airborne? Over reacting? Yes but at the time with what little was known I could see why people in power freaked out.
One month later it was painfully obvious that this wasn’t and 8-10% or even a 2-3% like 1918 and what some had forecast. It was an order of magnitude less. At that point everyone should have gone back. Making up for 1 month is hard but doable hill. Fine months is an Everest for a lot of businesses and people.
So why have the lockdowns not been lifted? It has been 4 months since end of April and the worst of it and our governments are lying to us like the Chinese lie to theirs. That won’t work with a lot of people, especially this motley crew of ne-er do wells.
They’ve achieved nothing and at absolute worst this might be similar in percent dead to the Asian flu of the late 50’s or the Hong Kong flu of the late 60’s. Nothing to shut the country down for.
Dang. So much for my proof reading skills this time of day.
“due to China not covering things up”
should be
“due to China covering things up”
Fixed. I hate typos.
w.
The disease is mild. The reaction by Western governments was incredibly destructive.
Had we known early on that there was a new disease related to SARS going around China, governments might have closed the borders to China in time to stop it spreading much outside the country. Instead, they kept the borders open and then trashed their economies to try to stop a disease which turned out to be far, far less dangerous than SARS. Because they followed the ‘lock down and be damned!’ programming Gates fed them late last year.
On the bright side, though, the response has wrecked many of the institutions of social control, like schools, universities, sports and Hollywood. So it’s not all bad.
“On the bright side, though, the response has wrecked many of the institutions of social control, like schools, universities, sports and Hollywood. So it’s not all bad.”
It’s the Radical Left that has wrecked the schools, universities, sports and Hollywood. The response to the pandemic has set back their path of destruction for a while.
The Left ruins everything they touch.
I was told to take a hike by MR Antony Watts because I was against lockdowns so I dont respect this site anymore sorry Willis was 100 percent correct Jo annova nova and Mockton are 100% incorrect these lockdowns are causing Millions of people to suffer for a nothing burger common flu virus. I have a journal that has published 300 articles on this theme and I have 4 higher degrees on the issue but Watts seems mto think that Mosh seems to know more about this according to this sites, So that why I will not post anything on this site anymore my Father was a meteorologist that attended classes with EISTEIN in 1 leipzig instut fur physict in 1932 and published major articles in Nature about particle physics and evapotransformation when it was a real credible journal, Shame on you MR watts I am finished with you I will never observe or post anything on your site again have a good day. I will never visit this site again but I wish you the best of luck
Eliza
You are no Einstein.
You come across as a bitter old woman. Can you not see that Watts could have been scared out of his mind in the beginning of this farce. He is not vetoing either side. Mosh on the other hand is an obsessive-neurotic health nut. My family is replete with same and I never do more than nod when they pontificate the ‘truth’.
Eliza,
Next time, write before you take your pills, not straight after. Geoff S
Nobody is ever completely right or wrong, especially not all the time. In fact, you said basically the same thing yesterday that you would never post here again and yet here you are.
You will also find that there is some diversity of opinion tolerated here unlike most places. Anthony may be opinionated sometimes, but that’s his prerogative.
Personally, I like some of your thoughts and would miss you, but I feel I can learn from anyone, except some of the real dummies, that I won’t mention, although the first letters of their handles are G and L.
“You will also find that there is some diversity of opinion tolerated here unlike most places. Anthony may be opinionated sometimes, but that’s his prerogative.”
Anthony didn’t like one of Eliza’s posts and he said so, but he didn’t ban Eliza.
Eliza should not ban herself.
Eliza September 1, 2020 at 3:51 pm
At least there is some good news on this subject …
w.
“Father was a meteorologist that attended classes with EISTEIN in 1 leipzig instut fur physict in 1932 and published major articles in Nature about particle physics and evapotransformation when it was a real credible journal”
Once again, proof that the acorn does indeed fall far from the tree.
I was told to take a hike by MR Antony Watts because I was against lockdowns
Given your track record, I suspect there was a lot more to it.
I will never visit this site again
Promises, promises. I believe it when I don’t see it.
The pandemic is still in progress so there are no experts yet, especially the author of this article. With this new pandemic, politicians did what they do best — misdiagnosed the problem and acted decisively to lpok devisive, rather then letting people make their own decisions.
We have no idea if the partial lockdowns were smart or dumb. Because we have no idea what would have happened with no US partial lockdowns.
It is a fact that as of last Thursday the Labor Dept. Reported 27 million Americans were receiving state or federal unemployment benefits. Down from 32 million in May but still huge. They 27 million unemployed, out of a 160 million labor force, is about 17 percent unemployment. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 10 percent unemployment for July ! Maybe a rounding error?
There were partial lockdowns, not complete lockdowns. If people were flying in from other nations they were not really lockdowns at all. People could sit on a plane two inches from a stranger, but not sit two feet from strangers inside US restaurants. That’s a lockdown?
Sweden had some mandatory lockdowns of high schools and colleges, but not elementary and middle schools. There were no business lockdowns but people voluntarily stayed away from crowds so business suffered anyway — first quarter GDP was flat and second quarter Swedish GDP was down.
Norway did well by closing borders for a long time. But one should expect all nations to have different experiences with COVID just by chance. Sometimes there is just good luck. Or a nation that no one from China was interested in flying to?
“The pandemic is still in progress so there are no experts yet”
That’s exactly right. We need lots more information before we get a handle on the Wuhan virus and the actions people took to protect themselves.
I’d love to see a serious update on Sweden vs the other similar-sized European national experiences with covid. In theory, Sweden should be doing better in herd immunity by now and have fewer cases.
Briefly, Sweden is marching down the list in terms of numbers of cases, but more importantly deaths/million of population, while many other countries are generally moving up. There are several important factors, but essentially Sweden is looking relatively better and better.
The other Nordic countries look better in terms of health, but other most EU countries look worse.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Kwinterkorn try using these:
They take some getting used to, but do a quick comparison multiple ways. Swedens deaths per 1 million pop is the same as the USAs, but they now have herd immunity, plus their kids are all in school.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&trendline=default&y=fixed&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&extra=Sweden,United%20Kingdom,Norway,(None)#countries-normalized
Check out Belarus. Last time I checked it was 1/10th the deaths in Sweden.
Less restrictions than Sweden but HCQ used widely. Similar is some respects like about 10 million population with 1 large metro area with about 1/4 of the population in and around it, Nordic climate.
The IMF made a billion dollar loan conditional on a Italian type lockdown. Say what you want about Lukashenko (nothing good from me) but he refused. He probably thought it would make him look weak to back down when he was correct and had already made the call months earlier.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/world-bank-offered-belarus-940-million-coronavirus-loan-locked-destroyed-economy/
Lockdowns are radical. That is, they are a big change from normal. We know from experience that normal mostly works. To fix the parts which are not good enough, we can take small steps and make sure those work, but to abandon normal and with only panic or an imagined hope as a reason, that’s not good.
Toto
Lockdowns are not radical. Real lockdowns of sick people, not partial lockdowns of healthy people. SARS2 lockdowns of nursing homes, but no lockdowns of elementary schools, would have made sense.
Exactly.
And professor Levitt and his band of merry data diggers point out that no country or state has gone beyond 20% infection before it dies out. He calls it pre-immunity.
Countering the Second Wave with Facts, not Misconceptions
By: Udi Qimron, Uri Gavish, Eyal Shahar, Michael Levitt
https://www.dropbox.com/s/72hi9jfcqfct1n9/Haaretz-20Jul20_ENGLISH%2012082020%20v3.pdf?dl=0
Some highlights for you:
” Pre-immunity. No country has got more than 20% infected before it died out.
In several closed communities that underwent testing, the infection rate was always capped at 20%, which statistically aligns with maximal infection rate in these communities rather than recurring coincidences.
In Sweden the infection rate did not exceed 20% and the percentage of people who survived the epidemic exceeds 99.9% of the population.
In Belgium, the country with the highest population mortality rate, where less than 20% were infected, and more than 99.9% of the population has survived.
Immediate removal of most restrictions on the economy, immediate return to normal life of low-risk population while helping high-risk groups reduce the rate of social contacts is in order. “
That’s because 80-85% of the population has some kind of existing immunity. Look at the Diamond Princess cruise ship and the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Both had ideal conditions for viral spread but only 17% infection rate in each: 634/3711 and 856/4845 respectively. Dr. Rajkumar of the Mayo Clinic has noted the same thing. It’s not pre-immunity. It’s full immunity.
Willis, one of the reasons for Islamic terrorism is because the Middle East countries have high unemployment rates. The young men don’t have much to do each day so get caught up in extremist movements. We are seeing the same with BLM and Covid.
My very quick reply.
“ protesters” in USA are not long term unemployed youth but rather left wing students.
Some are paid agitators and we really need to get to the bottom of this.
Not sure how we can even count Covid deaths. If a person has a stroke, goes to hospital and tests positive for Covid and then dies one week later is that counted as Covid death ? How do we know that Covid caused the death. It is certainly possible that with or without Covid the person would have had a stroke and died. This whole death count is meaningless.
In one report, a person had a stroke and waited three days before going to emergency because they were scared of Covid.
You can use QALYS or DALYS
https://www.eufic.org/en/understanding-science/article/measuring-burden-of-disease-the-concept-of-qalys-and-dalys
I am pretty sure DALYS are the measure to uses.
My understanding is on average 10 DALYS are lost per covid death. It could be much less.
Thus the cost per covid death in $ terms is 10x GDP or about $500,000 per death.
Most medical preventions are deemed cost effective if cost benefit less than 1.2.
So using my crude numbers a lockdown costing less than $600,000 per life saved would be cost effective.
I have no doubt when the figures come out, lockdowns will be calculated to be an economic waste of money.
“Not sure how we can even count Covid deaths”
And noone else is either. We need more data.