An NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been based on a flawed assumption about the volatility of COVID19. We already know that the model used to initially predict infection and death rates was completely flawed, and now discredited, along with the modeler Neil Ferguson of London’s Imperial College.
Back in 2005, Ferguson claimed up to 200 million might die from the Avian flu, but in reality, only about 100 did. In March 2020, Ferguson was queried by The New York Times with the question: “what the best-case scenario was for the US during the COVID pandemic?”
“About 1.1 million deaths,” he said. So far, as of this writing, 154,471 deaths have been recorded according to the CDC.
Ferguson’s model numbers overreached reality by about a factor of ten.
From the report: (bold mine)
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person’s blood rather than the virus itself.
The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.
“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.
Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it.
This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century. The so-called “climate emergency” is a close second.
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https://bestlifeonline.com/why-people-hardly-covid-symptoms/
“This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”
This article claims getting the common cold may give some immunity to the Wuhan virus.
Since children are exposed to these cold and flu viruses all the time, that may explain why they don’t have much trouble with the Wuhan.
I, on the other hand, have not had a cold or the flu in so long that I can’t remember the last time. So I’m wondering if that puts me at greater risk.
I have heard others here who have said they have not had the flu in a long time, too.
I wonder what percentage of the population has managed to avoid colds and flu for years? Would these people be at particular risk?
A childs immune response is a few orders of magnitude better than that of an aged person. As a person ages, a process called “involution”. What is the thymus?
“The thymus is a specialized primary lymphoid organ of the immune system. Within the thymus, Thymus cell lymphocytes or T cells mature. T cells are critical to the adaptive immune system, where the body adapts specifically to foreign invaders”
That is your explanation as to why older people are much more prone to serious infection with new pathogens.
As to why Sars-cov-2 is really good at infecting a body: “SARS-CoV-2 is an unusual one: it manages to block the interferon-I and III response quite thoroughly, while setting off a larger-than-normal cytokine secretion response”.
It knocks-out the primary body response to a viral infection, which them depends upon the adaptive immune response.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/health/coronavirus-immune-system.html
Good article.
“not as deadly as thought”
Sheeesh, this was known back in March.
blow by blow account from the beginning illustrated it was not as serious as the MSM were banging on about-
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
“Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it”
Nanny , Monckton.