An NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been based on a flawed assumption about the volatility of COVID19. We already know that the model used to initially predict infection and death rates was completely flawed, and now discredited, along with the modeler Neil Ferguson of London’s Imperial College.
Back in 2005, Ferguson claimed up to 200 million might die from the Avian flu, but in reality, only about 100 did. In March 2020, Ferguson was queried by The New York Times with the question: “what the best-case scenario was for the US during the COVID pandemic?”
“About 1.1 million deaths,” he said. So far, as of this writing, 154,471 deaths have been recorded according to the CDC.
Ferguson’s model numbers overreached reality by about a factor of ten.
From the report: (bold mine)
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person’s blood rather than the virus itself.
The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.
“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.
Basically, the “nanny state” politicians decided to shut down the global economy to protect people from a contagious virus that has resulted in no symptoms or mild symptoms for up to 90 percent of the people who contracted it.
This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century. The so-called “climate emergency” is a close second.
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Uh oh, someone at NPR just lost their job.
This has been obvious for at least since mid-May.
And not only is the fatality rate (not case fatality rate, overall fatality for the population) far below 1%, the infant to young adult age groups (age: 0-29 years) have a minuscule risk of severe disease from COVID-19. Those in the young ages who have had ARDS and/or died from COVID-19 (not with) almost certainly had an underlying risk factors like diabetes, leukemia/lymphoma treatments, or gross obesity. Compare that to the Spanish Flu/H1N1 of 1918-1919 where the teenagers and young adults deaths were at least 40% of the overall deaths.
Posted the following observations yesterday.
1. The pandemic is over when the CDC’s excess mortality % returns to about zero. That will likely be about the end of August; it is already back down well under 10% nationally. Peaked late April at about 22k excess deaths/week. Is now only about 2k as of last week of July Stanford epidemiologist Just published agreeing with that assessment. That will be with about 25% testing positive antibodies.
2. Part of the reason the ‘herd immunity’ models predicting 65-70% infected are wrong based on Sweden is they assume homogeneity. When more realistic heterogeneity assumptions are input the Herd immunity threshold is 25-30%. Nic Lewis has two posts on this Mathematics over at Climate Etc.
Covid19 infections leave an impact on the heart, raising concerns about lasting damage
Maybe these heart impacts were attributed to HCQ….
HQC has cardiac side effects for massive doses of 500mg/day or more. This is several times the dose of 200mg/day which is the consensus dose.
Impacts to the heart are more likely to be a result of thrombosis which is one of the impacts of COVID-19.
The ARDs of a severe case of COVID-19 is due to the virus infecting endothelial cells of the vasculature. Alveoli sacs are lined with intricate meshwork of capillaries for gas exchange. Damage to this vasculature network allows the virus to spread systemically, and thus to heart’s vasculature feeding the cardiac muscles. Many people who have COVID-19 report muscle aches, this is the virus doing there (back muscles) what it is also doing to the heart muscles, causing a low level of non-productive infection of the cells there.
But muscle aches and muscle pain (myalgia) are a common symptom of many viral infections including influenza (see list in link below). This is the virus getting to the muscles through the circulatory system. So heart “damage” is occurring, it is just that in most people it is easily repaired once the virus is eliminated by the immune system. So this is not specific to a SARS-CoV-2 viral infection by any means.
myalgia and viral infections (see “causes”):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myalgia
Or HCQ was exacerbating what was already going on in the heart…
Zero evidence that HQC cause heart problems
What do you think arrhythmias are and what would happen if they persist?
Any doctor worth his/her salt will check for arrhythmias before prescribing HCQ and periodically during the course of treatment.
It’s interesting that the warnings that come with every refill for HCQ include “Many drugs besides hydroxychloroquine may affect the heart rhythm (QT prolongation). Some examples are…AZITHROMYCIN…among others.”
I would be more impressed if the first study had before and after MRIs of the recovered patients in order to exclude prior heart issues.
Concerning elevated levels of troponin, there are other things besides heart problems that can cause that; like extreme physical exertion. Many of them had just returned from ski vacations and were middle aged. hmmm…
Other causes of elevated troponin
#main
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768914
That doesn’t mean that it’s doing anything pathogenic. The basic consensus now is that the virus is not very pathogenic, yet somehow it mysteriously triggers an out-of-control immune response. A lot of the mystery would vanish if they simply factored in the severe out-of-control immune response mechanical ventilators are responsible for.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-thought-covid-respiratory-viruswe-wrong.html
Nothing new, see: From the throat to the heart: Charting the long history of rheumatic fever
Or if you trust this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rheumatic_fever
Anthony, calling this kerfuffle a “blunder” is probably too kind. The way this situation has progressed, I have had to strongly resist the temptation to put on my conspiracy hat, because so much of the response to this virus has been political and NOT based upon the known science. Never in the history of disease have I seen so many world, national, and local leaders make so many draconian decisions on the basis of so little real information. The words “panic” and “fear” drive most of the policy discussions in the United States still. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s chief overreactor and hysteric, should have been fired a long time ago or at least put out to pasture because he is still now generating reasons to continue the philosophy of lockdown (knowing that he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 assures me even less that he is doing this on a scientific, as opposed to a political, basis. The old goat just keeps making noise with little or no real scientific result.
“This will eventually go down as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, scientific and political blunders of the 21st century.”
I’m with Larry. It’s beyond charitable to say that politicians caused all this harm intentionally but in good faith. They caused it intentionally; that is undeniable. If it were done in good faith they would have stopped the fearmongering and money-printing long before now.
“because so much of the response to this virus has been political and NOT based upon the known science”
Isn’t that the truth! Lots of examples in this article and the comments. Lots of opinions.
There is one upside to the Covid experience that bears on the Catastrophic Anthropo Global Warming topic. The way the Democrat led states and House of Representatives handled the crisis in elderly care homes, banned a no regrets medication (HCQ) that seems hard to kill off, who in their right minds would want the New Left in charge of managing any crisis? Add to that months of Dem sanctioned (“Summer of Love”) and even supported (directed?) terror, arson, murder, looting, destruction of private and public property… even if the Climate Strawberry Social turned out to be worse than a bolide strike, we wouldn’t want the party of Pelosi looking after things.
The perfect controlled experiments:
Diamond Princess
# on board: ~ 5,000
# of COVID-19 positive tests: ~600
# of fatalities: 19
USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)
# on board: ~5,000
# of COVID-19 positive tests: ~680
# of fatalities: 1
The age groups analysis and general health status of those two “experiments” as you call them puts in stark relief where the at-risk demographics exist.
HQC has cardiac side effects for massive doses of 500mg/day or more. This is several times the dose of 200mg/day which is the consensus dose.
Impacts to the heart are more likely to be a result of thrombosis which is one of the impacts of COVID-19.
“Dr. Ackerman said that patients aged younger than 40 years with mild symptoms and a QTc ≥500 milliseconds may choose to avoid treatment altogether, as the arrhythmia risk may far outweigh the risk of developing COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome.”
https://criticalcare.peervoice.com/mayo-clinic-provides-guidance-risk-qtc-prolongation-label-covid-19-treatments
Guidance on patients at risk of drug-induced sudden cardiac death from off-label COVID-19 treatments
https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-provides-urgent-guidance-approach-to-identify-patients-at-risk-of-drug-induced-sudden-cardiac-death-from-use-of-off-label-covid-19-treatments/
“While hydroxychloroquine is likely to be safe for 90 percent of the population, Ackerman said, it could pose serious and potentially lethal risks to a small number of those susceptible to heart conditions, especially those with other chronic medical problems already on multiple medications.
In fact, a small recent study showed that up to 11 percent of coronavirus patients on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are in the so-called “red zone” for potential cardiac side effects.”
“They’ve entered the danger zone,” Ackerman said. “That is not just my hunch that patients are going to be reacting to this drug — but they are reacting to this drug.”
“Ackerman said there are as many as 100 FDA-approved medications that can potentially prolong the QTc interval like hydroxychloroquine, and one of them is azithromycin. This combination, which Ackerman refers to as the “corona cocktail,” could be particularly dangerous in the wrong patient.
“It just means that the perfect storm is brewing. It’s sort of like walking to the edge of the cliff. You are getting closer and closer to that proverbial edge,” Ackerman said.
Hydroxychloroquine’s fate as an FDA-approved drug to treat the coronavirus remains uncertain, Ackerman added.
“Yes, these medications overall are really, really safe, so in that sense the president is right. But really safe in a population sense doesn’t mean that drug is going to be safe enough for the particular patient I’m about to treat,” he said.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/mayo-clinic-cardiologist-inexcusable-ignore-hydroxychloroquine-side-effects-n1178776
I remember in grade school they had us all take a TB test.
I was the only one in my class to test positive.
(The test site turned red. It was kinda fun showing it to my classmates. Sort of like when kids compare scars.)
But I didn’t have active TB.
I’d had Tubercular Meningitis when I was 18 months old and was properly treated.
(You don’t give pills to an 18 month old. You give them shots. I got so many I have 3 coin-sized areas on my … where they give babies shots, that look like the surface of the Moon.)
Covid testing has increased so positive test results have increased.
No surprise there.
(What would happen if they also tested for anti-bodies of past flu strains? A new pandemic?)
Back in the 50s one of my father’s coworkers came down with TB, so naturally I was tested. A few weeks later my grade school tested all students. My mother objected, but got no where, knowing that the previous test would cause me to test positive…which it did. I was not allowed back in school while my family doctor and the school nurse battled.
Asteroid strike. It is low probability, high lethality. Preparing for it is a win win – even if the threat doesn’t materialise we end up as a species that no longer has all its eggs in one basket.
JF
The only way a Mars, Lunar, or beyond colony could survive long-term is by periodic Earth resupply of both people and raw materials (such as thorium/uranium/plutonium for reactors, fertilizer for crops). Little chance of that resupply if the Earth is decimated by a large bolide.
And now back to our (sponsored) existential threat of the week……
Bogus. Newest data from seroligical study from Italy reported 1,48 million infected people and 35,171 confirmed deaths. Makes an IFR of 2.37%. Data from New York implicated 1.4%, data from Spain 1.2%.
IFR is hopefully supposed to go done as treatment becomes better (steroids, remdisivir, interferon beta) but at the moment this thing is way apart from being “just the flu”. Possible long lasting damage just emerging. I would not advise to catch this.
Remdisivir has shown no efficacy for reduced mortality.
Your information might be outdated, at least for a significant subgroup of patients:
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/07/14/remdesivir-treatment-shows-62-reduction-in-covid-19-deaths
Not surprising regarding the mechanism. Inhibit the virus early and it should work. Inhibit the virus to an extent the cytokine storm/blood clotting does not happen and it should work.
Thanks for the update.
“Inhibit the virus early and it should work. Inhibit the virus to an extent the cytokine storm/blood clotting does not happen and it should work.”
One of my questions about the Wuhan virus is how soon after it enters the body does it start to do serious damage?
Do you think the bloodclotting is caused by the cytokine storm and not before, or does the Wuhan virus contribute to the bloodclotting and, if so, presumably bloodclot damage could be happening even before the cytokine storm gets going.
There are more and more claims of damage to various organs, heart, lungs, kidney, liver coming from people who had very mild cases of the Wuhan virus. So what about children? They seem to weather the infection quite well but is the infection doing long-term damage to them even so?
Yes, you don’t want this virus if you can manage to avoid it. We really do not know what the long-term consequences of this disease really are.
By the end of the year, when we get a vaccine, perhaps we can stop worrrying about this. But not before, I would say. Until we get a vaccine, we should concentrate on getting this virus out of the body as soon as possible after it is detected using something like HCQ that is claimed to clear the body of the virus in from six to nine days.
@Tom About
Unfortunately, we don’t have the answers yet. There are a lot of reasonable hypothesis out there and confusingly many are backed up by valid looking data.
One hypothesis about this is that it could be something like a vicious circle that gets stronger each round.
In addition some speculate SARS-CoV-2 could directly mediate clotting of erythrocytes via CD147. The virus uses ACE2 together with CD147 to enter cells. Erythrocytes don’t have ACE2 so the virus will not enter but it could be a like a “glue” attaching erythrocytes to each other.
We don’t know. Maybe they don’t have a problem bc their vasculature is very intact and they have very low levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines like CCL2 and IL-32 which seem to correlate with severe cases.
Or it could do long-term damage like influenza when it goes to the heart (myocarditis). Happened to a friend of mine. Was hospitalised as a child and got arrhythmias in his early 30’s.
With the unknown better be save than sorry.
Ron’s correct: we don’t know.
And we will never know until we filter out the noise to be able to measure the real signal. On one hand we have speculation that a virus is causing thromboses; on the other hand we have decades of documented research about mechanical ventilation’s role in activating inflammatory pathways, including thrombosis precursors like VEGF, which just happens to be the most important indicator related to COVID-19 severity, according to one study.
Thanks for that informative reply, Ron. Much appreciated.
@icisil
I showed you the data that people who have never been on a ventilator have blood clotting and die.
Clinicians are reporting that the blood is already clotting in the tubes when patients are hospitalised and they are taking samples before patients even get any treatment.
There are studies that coagulation factors in these samples like VWF are through the roof, crushing the scale of the assays.
But of course, it’s all the ventilators fault…
/sarcasm off.
And I told you the data on those two out patients was inconclusive.
I would really like to see examples, reports, studies, etc. that show VWF numbers are through the roof at presentation. You simply saying it’s so isn’t enough for me.
And I’ve never said that only ventilators are causing the pathologies. But I am saying it is impossible to get a clear signal about viral pathogenesis while ignoring mechanical ventilator’s contribution.
Here you go, Fig. 1:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2352-3026%2820%2930216-7
For your information LLN = lower limit normal, ULN = upper limit normal.
Even in some non-ICU patients VWF activity hits the end of the scale.
Quote: “all non-ICU patients were on no more than 3 L of supplemental oxygen.”
No ventilators.
Oh, and except of one non-ICU patient all received at least a prophylactic anticoagulation treatment (see appendix).
It is also likely that the early results we have seen so far for remdesivir have shown a reduction in benefit due to most patients hospitalized in March and April getting HCQ, which is now known to interfere with the antiviral effect of remdesivir.
When that finding was published, a directive went out to avoid giving these two drugs to the same patient.
Far larger trials with a longer time horizon have been ongoing, and it seems very possible those studies will give a better idea of how much it can help, and at what stage of illness, and across a broader range of outcome measures.
The benefit will almost surely be for some and not others.
I can think of zero antivirals that work for everyone who takes them, when use as a monotherapy.
Probably the most effective antiviral ever discovered is sofosbuvir for hep C, and by itself it has limited utility. But combined with a second antiviral with a different mode of action, it has been made part of a single pill regiment that is almost perfectly effective against even the sickest people with the most hard to treat strains of the HCV virus. But that was after decades of development and years of testing and refinement.
Simply settling on the optimum dosage of a new drug, or an old drug for a new usage, topically takes years of studies in thousands of patients, after years of study in cell cultures and animal models.
Nicholas
Apparently the ‘deep thinkers’ here never considered the possibility of a contraindication for HCQ and blithely recommended its use prophylactically, or for early mild infections, thus preventing the use of something that works for those most in need.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sorry-burst-magic-bubble-says-180317285.html
One of the problems with this disease is that there are so many claims and counter claims that it is difficult to know which to believe. Something that all should remember is that half of all medical studies cannot be replicated! I’m sure the percentage is higher for those studies that are poorly designed or implemented.
I started taking HCQ in June for lupus. The pamphlets that come with my pills mention possible interaction with remdesivir.
“ Possible long lasting damage just emerging. ”
Is this the new scare? I thought most news reports ended with …“and a 3 month old died of Covid.”
“Long haulers” and heart damage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFXr14xmuGw
More heart damage:
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.049465
Premature ageing as a possible side effect of cytokine storm:
https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/plus212742765/Corona-Studie-Wie-wird-es-den-Infizierten-nach-10-Jahren-gehen.html
The hypothesis would be supported by the research about parabiosis where pro-inflammatory cytokines mainly drive/their dilution inhibits ageing and the research about the senescence-associated-secretory-phenotype (SASP) that has systemic relevance in ageing.
More study is needed. This whole pandemic has been about scary prognostications.
Glad to see you on my side of the debate.
Is this a pandemic in name only? I have to wonder how things would have unfolded if the “expert” “epidemiologists” managed to get their predictions right at the beginning of this. Here in Ontario, at the beginning of April, we were told to expect “up to 15,000 COVID-19 deaths with health measures in place.” Those “measures” were the lockdown, social distancing and the usual nonsense.
“Now when you think that the mortality of this disease is up to 10 times higher and when you remember that we have no vaccine, no specific treatment, and this disease is entirely new to the population, then suddenly this figure of 15,000 becomes entirely logical.”
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-forecasts-up-to-15-000-covid-19-deaths-with-health-measures-in-place-1.4880757
As of today (August 4) 2,782 have died of (or with?) CV-19, with approximately 80% of that total in long-term care homes. Up to 10 times higher? Nope. There are about 1,500 deaths in Ontario linked to seasonal flu. So if in April the “experts” said, “the mortality of this disease is 2 times higher” than seasonal flu and it mostly impacts the elderly and infirm, would the nutty lockdown have been imposed?
It’s time to defund epidemiologists.
According to ycharts.com we are down to 542 death per day for the US on Aug 3. We were at 413 on Aug 2. The US has about 1500 deaths per day from lung cancer. This could be decreased significantly if we banned cigarettes. Smoking is actually more of a public health problem than covid. If we can use stay-at-home orders for covid why can’t we use no-smoking orders for cigarettes? Something is weirdly twisted here! Believe me, I certainly understand freedom of choice when it comes to lifestyle. Why is one lifestyle choice different from another?
Cigarettes bring in too much tax money to ban. Like liquor stores being declared essential businesses during the shutdown.
The full force of the resultant economic catastrophe has yet to be felt, and it will be devastating. A year from now in Canada, perhaps a fifth of our population will have fallen out of the middle class. That’s what’s coming, and all of the people whose recommendations and policies have caused that ruin will be insulated by their own wealth and social connections from it.
The thugocracy states have largely defeated the virus, mainly in their fake reporting to WHO.
Will NPR report on this evidence?
—-
COVID-19 study in Australia confirms low transmission in educational settings
Transmission of COVID-19 in schools is less than other respiratory viruses
Date:
August 4, 2020
Source:
University of Sydney
Summary:
New research from Australia finds COVID-19 transmission rates in New South Wales schools and early childcare education and care settings were minimal, particularly between children and from children to adults.
The next emergency will be just like this one, whatever the “experts” say it is. I am still alarmed to see how easily the citizens surrendered their rights and freedoms to the government.
The next emergency will be guided by lessons learned from this emergency, and won’t be handled quite like this one, I would guess.
I don’t think we should expect perfect solutions when we are in a situation that noone on Earth has ever faced before. In those circumstances many mistakes are inevitable. Requiring perfection is requiring too much, because all of us are stumbling around in the dark over the Wuhan virus. Some people think they have it all figured out, but I don’t think so. I think we still have a ways to go to work ourselves out of this mess, although it looks like we are going to have some kind of vaccine fairly soon.
When the Wuhan virus first emerged and there was talk of a vaccine, I thought to myself that I would not be vaccinated immediately, I would wait and see how it affected others, but after seeing all these reports of the multiple kinds of damage the Wuhan virus can do to the body, even in people with mild symtoms, I have decided the vaccine is less of a risk than catching the Wuhan virus, and I will take the vaccine as soon as it is available to me.
The Covid death rate has dropped in the US…
Because the US population is less ‘Vitamin’ D deficient in the summer, than in the winter.
If the US population does not all take Vitamin D supplement the covid death rate will increase in the winter.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/03/florida-reports-lowest-single-day-increase-in-coronavirus-cases-since-june/
Florida Death Rate is Five Times less 1.4% than the New York Death Rate.
On Monday, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci over his past criticisms of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and his handling of the pandemic.
“FL and NY have an identical number of per capita coronavirus infections but FL has 5X less per capita deaths,” Paul pointed out.
The US Vit. D deficiency data does not give the winter/summer change.
We can assume the summer/winter change would be similar to Canada. The summer/winter Vit. D population statistic was taken from statistic Canada’s web site. Stat Canada took summer and winter blood samples to determine Canadian’s Vitamin D deficiency status:
40% of Canadian are Vitamin D deficient in the winter, active Vit. D blood serum levels less than 20 ng/ml in the winter
…. While only 25 percent of Canadian, are Vitamin D deficient in the summer, blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml in the summer.
The chemical active Vitamin D is required by every cell in our body to access each individual cell’s complete copy of our genome.
Our cells access their copy of our genome when that type of cell…
… needs to do something and the cell requires new cellular apparatus to perform the microbiological action.
…. like enable us to stand up and not fall down or to response/defend against to a stimulus like a virus attack which it cannot make without accessing the genome and it can only access the genome using the active Vitamin D.
When we are Vitamin D deficient, our body’s response to virus attacks, our ability to maintain our muscles and to have lots of muscle, to not fall down, to be able to lift heavy objects, to defend against cancer, to defend against type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and so on is not adequate or optimum.
People feel look and act different that are Vitamin D deficient. Vitamin D deficient people are weak, they have balance issues. They have more falls. They will over time have smaller functioning brains, as they have lost more of their brain cells to ‘age’.
At 80 years of age based on measurement the range in functioning brain cells in the US population is roughly 20% to 80%.
Optimum Vitamin D level is greater than 60 ng/ml, based on the woman’s breast cancer study ( a reduction in breast cancer of 80% with calcium supplements), our body repair systems, defense systems, control systems, muscles, and so on do not work optimally as only some of our cells get the additions required for them to provide the best …
Protection, performance, and so on.
An actived Vitamin D level greater than 60 ng/ml is the level for maximum muscle performance, muscle repair, and to build new muscle. Professional athlete trainers, measure Vitamin D level and ensure it is controlled and managed for professional athletes.
It is physically impossible for a Vitamin D deficient person to be a professional athlete. Our bodies cannot work optimally without the active Vitamin D chemical
Vitamin D enables our muscles to contract for example and enables are body to build more muscle.
Vitamin D has been found, in the men’s prostate study to shrink the prostate tumour, by turning on a gene that stops inflammation in our body which has been shown in the breast, colon, prostate, and stomach studies reduce the incidence of the cancer in question by 60% to 80%. Similar reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.
Regardless of sex or age those how have Vit. D blood serum level that is less than 20 ng/ml have a 19 times greater chance of dying from covid or having serious covid symptoms.
Cohorts of very, very, Vitamin D deficient people.
The average blood stream Vit. D levels for a random sample of elderly woman in the US, ages 63 to 99, found that the average Vit. D level measured in the ladies was 12 ng/ml.
Obese people unless they take Vitamin D supplements also have a blood serum level around 15 ng/ml. Vitamin D deficiency explains why obese people get kidney ‘disease’ and end up on dialysis.
The most Vitamin D deficient young people, in the Vitamin D deficiency studies are those those woman who must wear complete skin covering when going outside. Those women commonly have Vit. D levels below 10 ng/ml.
https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/
Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study
Vitamin D Insufficient Patients are 12.55 times, more likely to die or have serious organ damage, blood serum 25(OH)D level from 21 to 29 ng/ml
Vitamin D Deficient Patients 19.12 times, more likely to die or have serious organ damage, Vitamin D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml
Vitamin D ‘normal’ for this study is 25(0H)D above 30 ng/ml.
82% of the US black population, 69% of the US Hispanic, and 42% of the US general population is Vitamin D deficient.
Prevalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults.
https://tahomaclinic.com/Private/Articles4/WellMan/Forrest%202011%20-%20Prevalence%20and%20correlates%20of%20vitamin%20D%20deficiency%20in%20US%20adults.pdf
Our cells have a complete copy of our genome in each cell.
Our cells need Vitamin D to access their copy of our genome when they need to build something to produce chemicals to defend our body or to make our body work.
For example, muscle cells, require the Vitamin D to enable them to contract.
This is a video that explains what Vitamin D does in the body.
https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/McDonnell-2018-breast-cancer-GRH.pdf
The proportion with breast cancer was 78% lower for >60 ng/ml vs <20 ng/ml (P = 0.02). Third, multivariate Cox regression revealed that women with 25(OH)D concentrations 60 ng/ml had an 80% lower risk of breast cancer than women with concentrations 60 ng/ml being most protective.
Finally, Missing link between vitamin D prostate cancer
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141022164052.htm
I’m not sure if I’m on Team Vitamin D, but here’s some more research on the Vitamin D / CV-19 link:
https://borsche.de/res/Vitamin_D_Essentials_EN.pdf
“To sum it all up: If all people, especially the seniors, had a vitamin D level significantly above 30 ng/ml, rather above 40 ng/ml, there would be a high probability that we would not have to fear Covid-19. At 45 ng/ml, as found in native, traditional living peoples near the equator, we should hope to lose practically no one because of Covid-19, unless the comorbidities are so severe that it would have been a matter of days or weeks anyway.”
Conclusion
Drink your frigging milk
most don’t anymore, maybe those old doctors really know something.
In 2019 the U.S. average death rate per day was about 7,890 compered to less than 1,000 reported from COVID-19. And many of these could be from something else. In Minnesota the numbers are about 120 and only 5. And 78% of the 5 are from nursing homes and care centers. By the way, U.S abortions run at about 2,300 per day.
Is it possible that these modelers will be held accountable for their disastrous and deeply flawed computer projections? Nope. And to think they cannot get anything close (days or weeks) to what was observed and these same wing nuts want us to believe climate models that forecast not days, weeks or months, but years into the future what are climate will be like. The COVID17 better known as the Wuhan virus experience will call into question these supposed “experts.” No thanks. I have a brain and am using it. If I hear “expert” in a sentence you can count on it I will be “skeptical” or better yet a “denier.”
Well to be fair, it’s not over yet, so it could possibly be 1.1M deaths, though it doesn’t seem to be heading that way. The article didn’t seem to give a date by which the 1.1M deaths would occur.
However, given that deaths are overcounted (anyone who dies that tests positive for covid will count despite the actual cause of death), and cases are undercounted (many asymptomatic or not sick enough to seek treatment), the actual death rate so far is most certainly lower than the statistics show.
It’s a PLAN-demic!
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