We’re going idle this weekend in order to minimize complications of server move on Monday.
Feel free to talk, discuss, yell, and play in the sand.
Stay polite. Behave. Represent.
*Warning* Comments on this thread may not be preserved after the move. *Warning*
Here is some good covid treatment news.
This is a new medical technology that was used to defeat the deadly Ebola virus and if it works, as it did for Ebola will stop the covid problem.
Those infected with covid, would get a single injection of an artificial antibody, as soon as possible in the virus’s progression.
The artificial produced antibodies attack the virus in the patient, leaving them almost virus free in 48 hours. If the treatment is done early, as soon as covid is detected, damage will be limited.
Regeneron, the leading company in the new field has received a $500 million dollars speed up money from the US and have moved onto Phase 3 trials of their new artificial antibody.
This is an artificial antibody, not a vaccine. It only provides protection while the injected antibody is in the person system. The injection would provide the person injected, with roughly 4 weeks of immunity to covid.
There are three other antibody designing companies that are working with the US Military, to develop covid artificial antibodies.
I believe all have had very good success with phase 1 and 2 trials. This is great news as it proves the technology is solid.
https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-announces-start-regn-cov2-phase-3-covid-19-prevention
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html
Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug
That’s very interesting. I would assume the person would also develop their own immunity to CV as their immune system would be fighting the virus like it normally would. The artificial antibody would just keep the virus from doing damage.
Yes. I believe the patient’s own immune system would have a chance to develop a defense against covid, in the time before the virus was injected and had time to act.
As the covid virus starts in the throat, early artificial antibody treatment, might also eliminate lung damage. No permanent damage for most people would be a big help.
The reason the military is interested in this artificial antibody technology is it effectiveness, when optimized 95% or greater because the technically allows artificial antibody to be optimized.
Also this technology enables the artificial antibody to be easily and quickly changed, if the virus changes.
The current old technology vaccines are only 60% effective and sometimes sometimes significantly less (30% and less) if the virus they protect against has mutated.
This artificial antibody treatment, if it was optimized, very effective in rapidly leaving the patient virus free, be preferred over a vaccine.
The artificial antibody will be optimized to attack the virus. It will have the best features possible to attack the covid virus and likely it will be a cocktail of more than one artificial antibody (companies use different techniques to optimize their artificial antibodies) to increase effectiveness.
This is great. Some antibodies have had some major issues in humans (for complicated reasons), but this one looks like not so. Coupled with the fact that manufacturing systems for antibodies have been improved enormously since the early days. this is going to be one of the winners (IMO).
Governor Newsom in California is not going to like this. His strategy seems to be to try to help tank the US economy so Trump doesn’t get reelected. Then he expects to get a big bailout from Biden and Congress.
A lot of assumptions that might not work out as expected.
Trump with the roaring economy pre-COVID was on a glide path to victory.
They were/are desperate in February, as all their Presidential candidates were a disaster for moderate voters except Biden, whose dementia wasn’t as widely obvious then.
COVID pandemic threw them a lifeline to save the Progressive agenda at a massive cost. A cost that would destroy millions of lives and small businesses with economic ruin and they are now taking it tells everyone paying attention how desperate the Democrats are for total power in Washington DC.
They got a brief taste of total power in 2009-2010 with Obama, and that want that back. It was like crack-heroin-speed all in one dose for the Libs. They had a 60 vote Senate majority, the House and the Presidency. And then they realize they squandered it by not changing the Senate rules on filibuster after Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s seat in the special election eliminating their filibuster-proof 60 Dem super-majority. Because of that they were forced to do work around on ObamaCare that totally trashed the Progressive brand with American voters for the next 6 years culminating in Trump’s victory. The Republican Scott Brown victory in Blue Massachusetts for the Ted Kennedy seat changed the course of history.
They won’t make that “mistake” again. The first thing a Democrat run Senate will do is eliminate the 60 vote filibuster rule. Then just like the House, it will be the rule of the mob in Congress. Then they’ll use the 25th Amendment to kick Senile Biden out and put his VP in, the first African-American female president in fact.
And then they’ll have it all. The Green New Deal. Reparations for every minority group in a treasury free for all. They’ll expand the Supreme Court to 13 jurists and pack in 4 Libs to ensure every Wish List the Libs have ever had will get a Supreme Court rubber stamp.
They’ll use water regulations to Kill Fracking. They’ll Kill the oil and gas industry offshore and on all Federal lands. Eliminate gun ownership by onerous regulations. They’ll change voting laws to allow dirty mail fraud elections in most states so no Republican can ever win. And they’ll just be getting started. Military- gutted.
And Democrats’ China masters will be quite pleased with their Baizuo.
Meanwhile, Dementia Joe will be eating his cherry jello in the memory care facility activity room with the nurses calling him Mr President as he smiles and tries to grope them during Bingo game breaks.
There is a great scene in Dr Zhivago when Zhivago returns to Moscow after the war and revolution and shows up at his family mansion, now inhabited by hundreds of families all barely subsisting under the watchful eye of the local Comisar. Everyone is now living in equal squalor. “Yes, this is more just,” Zhivago tells the Comisar. I think of that scene all the time here in California. This is what is coming; San Francisco already has moved homeless addicts and mentally ill into a number of high end hotels (which are being destroyed in the process, and doing nothing to get them other help). And what I am most amazed by is that the people pushing these programs and policies all think they will escape it themselves, that somehow they won’t also be affected. They instead will be the first to be purged. Nobody is really being helped; everyone is just being pushed downward to the same low standard of living. Why anyone thinks this works is just beyond me, but people here still keep voting for the same people who have been ruining this state for years. Watch the San Fran elections in November, it will still be the same lefties getting elected despite all the complaining among residents. We truly do get the government we deserve.
I read several local San Fran news reports about how the social workers who go into those once pleasant SanFran hotels are coming out utterly horrified and shell-shocked and then fleeing in terror at what they’ve just seen inside. In the rooms they see destroyed furniture, beds covered in feces and smell of urine everywhere. Trash is everywhere. People are shooting up with city provided methadone and needles in communal rooms, HIV and HepC no doubt in all of them. COVID? What does that matter when you have HepC and HIV ravaging your body. They are all already dead, just waiting to die.
The Progressive version of Hell on Earth comes to Big Blue San Fran in ever new ways.
Jeffrey, I live here too, and as long as Apple, Facebook, Google et al., keep ploughing in the $$Trillions, it will be a long time before California capitalism becomes actual leftism and not phony-leftism (i would guess never). They can buy a lot of port-a-potties for the homeless as a minuscule percentage of what they skim off from their protection rackets for themselves.
…… but yes many do still vote for it, which I guess proves that Chronic Virtue-Signaling Disorder is both more pernicious and more infectious than our current uninvited guest infection.
“And Democrats’ China masters will be quite pleased with their Baizuo.
Meanwhile, Dementia Joe will be eating his cherry jello in the memory care facility activity room with the nurses calling him Mr President as he smiles and tries to grope them during Bingo game breaks.”
They don’t do Bingo in the dementia units. They just sit there and drool on themselves, or kick at people, or try to bite people. I’ve been in many of them.
I seen some better ones where the clients have more money. They are staged by functionality. Yes, those gone, just sit strapped in wheel cares all day, catheterized, and drooling tongue hanging out, jerking their hands and head around occasionally if they hear noise, very sad.
Joe will have the money to be in a better one where still functional he’ll get activities. But the COVID thing, unless there is an effective vaccine, will be Jill and family will stay behind glass windows. Like humans watching zoo animals.
I used to work on those wheelchairs. It was really depressing to see.
That was my mother’s fate for the last few years of her life. Before she got to that point she said she didn’t want to ‘go’ that way. She was watching her own fate and it frightened her. That’s where I don’t see that keeping people alive at all costs is the right thing to do. I don’t understand why doctor’s are proud that people can live to a hundred years of age these days. Surely quality of life has to come into it.
Megs July 19, 2020 at 4:08 pm
Megs, I used to wonder why so many doctors were opposed to voluntary euthanasia. Then I happened upon an article that reminded me of this rule: ‘follow the money’. The article stated that a third of doctors’ income comes from treating the aged.
Thanks BC, that certainly fits. I think that doctors should spend four or five days residing in nursing homes/dementia units every year during their careers. They might meet some of the lucid patients that tell you that they are all just waiting to die.
Will our great great grandchildren pay reparations for our 21st century slaves? Think “Masters” of the universe and the supply “Chain Gang” they’re using in not-so-free countries. Check the label inside your shirt, paints, shoes, etc. and likely it was made in a not-so-free country. Check those materials in your Tesla. Think of that box delivered to your door-step by Amazon, et.al. as a bundle of cotton from the Chain Gang (rhetorically speaking that is).
Sadly, the same thing is happening in Michigan.
It’s all a leftist scam – the enviro BS including the climate and green-energy fraud, the full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19, paid-and-planned protests by Antifa and BLM – it’s all lies.
We published that the climate-and-green-energy rant was a false narrative in 2002, and by 2012 I wrote that there was a covert agenda, Now the greens are admitting that climate-and-energy was false propaganda, a smokescreen for their totalitarian objectives.
The green objective is to destroy prosperity and move the USA into a planned economy – with a few rich at the top looking down on the many poor peasants. That model now describes most of the countries in the world. Europe and Canada are far down that path, and the USA will follow if Biden and the Demo-Marxists are elected.
The book “1984”, written by George Orwell in 1949, foresaw a time “when most of the world population have become victims of perpetual war, omnipresent government surveillance and public manipulation”.
Well here is the REAL “1984”, an interview that year with ex-KGB officer and Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov, who describes the slow, long-term “ideological subversion” of Western societies. Note Bezmenov’s discussion of ideological subversion. It’s all about manipulating the “Useful Idiots” – the leftists in the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX3EZCVj2XA&feature=youtu.be
One commenter on the video wrote: “this is f***ing crazy, almost everything predicted by this guy is already happening.”
Take a look at this recently published video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF5mxZejb3s&feature=youtu.be
NewsBreak 81 CONFIRMED COVID 19 Plandemic a Known, Live “Training & Simulation Exercise” under WHO
Vaccines are 19th century medicine (devised by Dr. Edward Jenner in 1796) so it is about time this technology was replaced with some 21st century medicine.
They work because you can’t always fool the human immune system. For Smallpox there is still nothing better than its attenuated virulence cousin called the Vaccinia Virus used as the Small Pox vaccine. Vaccinia virus immune responses have been measured 70 years after vaccination in various studies showing how durable that vaccine is to preventing SmallPox for the entire lifetime of the human recipient.
The mRNA and DNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, at the scale they may be implemented with the COVID pandemic (hundreds of millions to billions of receiopients) will most assuredly kill lots of people with immunopathology due to an inappropriate Th2 immune response when they contract the real Corona virus. The only CoV-2 vaccine to trust will be live but attenuated virulence virus vaccines carrying the CoV-2 Spike protein coding. Without a live virus, the immune system will make antibodies all right, but the T cells will not be properly primed for a Th1 protective response in many people. Some will get an asthma-like Th2 eosinophilia in conjunction with the actual infection as the immune system produces a non-protective Th2 response to the actual virus infection.
Absolutely.
People throw around terms like ‘artificial antibodies’ with little or no grasp of the complexities of the immune system.
Just google ‘auto-immune diseases’ before signing up for that treatment!
This is why safety studies are done first
Joel,
Does this anomalous response also occur with Fully Human Monoclonal Antibodies. To my knowledge, they do not.
No. Antibodies whether polyclonal or monoclonal do not in themselves skew an antiviral Immune response to a Th2 phenotype. Plasma and or a MAB therapies contain no B or T cells.
A Th2 response is a cellular response driven by B-cells and Th2 primed T- cells (CD4+ T cells) for the most part, the cytokines they produce are a Th2 characteristic. That cyto ki e response recruits other cells like eosinophils. Eosinophilia is a Th2 cellular response that is non-protective for viral infections. Leads to airway inflamation in an asthsma like response. Really bad if the patient is also suffering fro pm viral pneumonia and/or ARDS.
Joel
“Leads to airway inflammation in an asthma like response”
Is that why an anti-asthma drug is efficacious?
In general, you don’t throw something out just because it’s old.
Most people wait till something better is available.
What are you proposing we replace vaccines with?
Antivaxxers mean that Anthony should maybe just shut this site down completely.
I am in favour of medical progress.
Go back to here in the thread to see where this started:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3036885
“The current old technology vaccines are only 60% effective and sometimes sometimes significantly less (30% and less) if the virus they protect against has mutated.
This artificial antibody treatment, if it was optimized, very effective in rapidly leaving the patient virus free, be preferred over a vaccine.
The artificial antibody will be optimized to attack the virus. It will have the best features possible to attack the covid virus and likely it will be a cocktail of more than one artificial antibody (companies use different techniques to optimize their artificial antibodies) to increase effectiveness.”
Phil,
By that logic, Antifa means that Trump should maybe just shut this country down completely.
Antivax propaganda isn’t usually permitted on WUWT and when it isn’t moderated, it’s invariably engulfed by the robust immune response of the T cells of the Truth squad.
There’s a big difference between urging caution about a new vaccine _technology_ (which seems reasonable to me), and refusing to get a standard measles vaccine that has been safe and effective for what, almost six decades?
I for one welcome a robust discussion about the risks of a new technology that we may soon all be asked (or forced) to bet our lives on.
“it’s invariably engulfed by the robust immune response of the T cells of the Truth squad. ”
I liked the way you put that.
Community moderation is what we have around here.
Read “The beautiful cure” by Daniel M Davis, Professor of Immunology at the University of Manchester. It goes through the history of the science behind the immune system. From the innate, dendritic cells, T cells and B cells. It is a multi layered, multifaceted system some of which we share with insects as well as mammals. It also explains that vaccines made from just the infecting organism are not very effective but need additional components such as aluminum salts to be effective.
Thanks John,
History of Science is always very instructive.
4.4 billion paid in compensation for vax issues through 2020 july
National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program
Monthly Statistics Report
Updated 07/01/2020 Page 9
FY 2016 689 $230,140,251.20 $16,225,881.12 99 $2,741,830.10 59 $3,502,709.91 $252,610,672.33
Fiscal Year
Number of
Compensated
Awards
Petitioners’ Award
Amount
Attorneys’
Fees/Costs
Payments
Number of Payments
to Attorneys
(Dismissed Cases)
Attorneys’
Fees/Costs
Payments
(Dismissed
Cases)
Number of
Payments
to Interim
Attorneys’
Interim
Attorneys’
Fees/Costs
Payments
Total Outlays
FY 2017 706 $252,245,932.78 $22,045,785.00 132 $4,444,124.32 52 $3,363,464.24 $282,099,306.34
FY 2018 521 $199,588,007.04 $16,658,440.14 112 $5,106,382.65 58 $5,151,148.78 $226,503,978.61
FY 2019 653 $196,217,707.64 $18,991,247.55 102 $4,791,157.52 65 $5,457,545.23 $225,457,657.94
FY 2020 524 $156,822,787.60 $14,662,535.44 90 $4,589,561.40 58 $3,934,741.77 $180,009,626.21
Total 7,365 $4,041,124,081.01 $220,725,729.41 5,544 $89,489,318.65 547 $42,206,880.72 $4,393,546,009.79
NOTE: Some previous fiscal year data has been updated as a result of the receipt and entry of data from documents issued by the Court and system updates
which included petitioners’ costs reimbursements in outlay totals,
“Compensated” are petitions that have been paid as a result of a settlement between parties or a decision made by the U.S. Court of Federal Claims (Court). The
# of awards is the number of petitioner awards paid, including the attorneys’ fees/costs payments, if made during a fiscal year. However, petitioners’ awards and
attorneys’ fees/costs are not necessarily paid in the same fiscal year as when the petitions/petitions are determined compensable. “Dismissed” includes the # of
payments to attorneys and the total amount of payments for attorneys’ fees/costs per fiscal year. The VICP will pay attorneys’ fees/costs related to the petition,
whether or not the petition/petition is awarded compensation by the Court, if certain minimal requirements are met. “Total Outlays” are the total amount of funds
expended for compensation and attorneys’ fees/costs from the Vaccine Injury Compensation Trust Fund by fiscal year.
Since influenza vaccines (vaccines administered to large numbers of adults each year) were added to the VICP in 2005, many adult petitions related to that
You obviously don’t live in the UK. Here, we are told that, if we experience any covid-19 symptoms, we must not visit the doctor nor go to hospital. We must stay at home until we become really ill and need hospitalization. Only then will we get any medical treatment. So, treatments which must be administered as early as possible such as the above artificial antibodies or HCQ + Azithromcyn + Zinc will never be prescribed here.
David,
Take control of your own life.
When this mess started, I added a zinc supplement, increased my Vit. C, and D intake, and then a bit later added a quercetin supplement, even though I eat a quercetin apple most every day.
All of that in hopes of maintaining a strong immune system able to fight off any covid attack.
But a virus got me anyway, except it’s one that has laid dormant in my system since I was a wee lad. Shingles are not fun at all.
Thank you John,
Quercetin Apple, didn’t know that.
So “An apple a day keeps the doctor away”.
Sorry to hear about the shingles.
skipped a word there Philip–should have said quercetin containing apple as red apples are one of several foods that do contain it. Green tea is another, which I do not drink
John, you made me look it up and I learnt something
There is a vaccine for shingles. I took it and have not suffered again. Unfortunately you cannot take it whilst you still have it. You have to wait a few months after full recovery.
@Henry Pool
Vaccination after infection is generally very moderately effective.
I really cannot fathom why someone would have himself vaccinated for HSV-2.
Most modern vaccinations are actually moderately or poorly effective.
One that is widely known to be very ineffective is the flu vaccine.
Worthless with severe side-effects.
Worked for me. Have not had sjingels again.
John
Shingles is preventable with a vaccine and treatable with something like valacyclovir. The problem is, along with taking all the homeopathic elixirs, you forgot to perform the daily regimen of standing on your head, rubbing your belly, and reciting Hamlet’s soliloquy simultaneously.
First of all, I need make a correction.
The vaccination is for varicella zoster virus, not herpes simplex virus 2.
My mistake, and I apologize.
Moving on, recurrence of shingles ain’t the norm. It does happen, but its rarer than no recurrence at all, and if it does reccur, its usually within many years.
The vaccine does reduce the risk of recurrence, but moderately, not significantly, and, as it is stated already, shingles can be treated with drugs, very promptly though.
Personally speaking, I would refrain from modern vaccines, unless it is a vaccine against HIV (not gonna happen)…
Why go for an option that has moderate effect, but serious side-effects, even if relatively rare?
Yea shingles are no fun at all. The nice thing is if you doc is up to speed the anti-viral kicks it to the curb in no time. My doc was up to speed and diagnosed it correctly at first crack. Unlike my unlucky sister in law who suffered through 3 visits before it was diagnosed.
My doc also doesn’t recommend the vaccine. He said the 75% effective rating was only true if you get it when you are young (<40) and the vast majority of people will never get it and the anti-viral meds work fast and reliably.
Accurate and quick diagnosis is the key.
John VC – coincidence ? Shingles has got me too and it’s not exactly a barrel of laughs.
An apple a day keeps the doctor away.
But an onion a day keeps everyone away.
David—I am an onion eater, so that might be the reason I have very few people visit me out here on the ranch. Actually like it that way. Since the first incipient pain this shingles attack has been hanging on for close to two weeks now. Doc had me on an anti viral (can’ t begin to recall the name) –5 pills a day for 7 days–and I suppose that did help as the surface rash has died down and is beginning to dry up. Subsurface pain is still pretty constant with numerous sharp flashes through out the day. I am going to get up on the tractor today as the longhorns would like a round bail put out for them.
An interesting compilation of HCQ studies that are overwhelmingly positive
https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1283840177497088001
icisil
From the Twitter thread:
” Zinc – I know the theory and its scientifically plausible but nobody knows the exact mechanism”
Zinc deficiency is a long known feature of loss of the sense of taste and smell.
Go figure.
Zinc supplements are not prescription reserved medicine in the UK and are legally available in any good health food store.
But Zinc by itself does a poor job of penetrating the cells where it is needed. I saw a study that looked at uptake of zinc by cells in vitro that showed that even high concentrations outside the cell didn’t make much different (helped a little.) Chloroquine improved the transport, but Hydroxychloroquine was 3X effective compared to that.
I have a stock of Zinc and Quercetin another Zn ionophore that I’ll take at first symptoms. HCQ works as a Zinc ionophore AND raises the pH of the cell which defeats the virus (and malaria). Sadly, quercetin is only an ionphore.
Mike,
Of course a zinc ionophore is a critical part of the mix.
Mike, quercetin and the other citrus bioflavanoids are anti-inflammatories, and also increase capillary wall strength.
So, there are reasons to take them as regular supplements; not just to help against covid.
Elderberry extract is one of the best supplements to help fight Covid.
Zinc, copper, and Iodine sprays, or drops for the back of the throat as well.
My brother makes a beautiful full-bodied elderberry wine.
Cheers.
“Zinc deficiency is a long known feature of loss of the sense of taste and smell.”
That’s interesting. I didn’t know that.
I read an article the other day that claimed if you had the symptoms of loss of taste/smell that it was an indicator the Wuhan virus would be a mild case. Just a claim, as far as I know, but interesting and more so with your statement above.
I have been taking zinc supplements since this pandemic started but I read the other day that your body regulates the amount of zinc in your blood and it looks like the zinc in a multivitamin is enough to keep a person at the proper level. So I will stop taking the additional zinc supplement when it runs out and just stick with the multivitamin.
I read yesterday that the common blood-thinner drug Heparin.might be an effective treatment for the Wuhan virus. The claim was that heparin attaches to the same thing the Wuhan virus attaches to, and taking heparin supposedly prevents the Wuhan virus from attaching itself to the target cells in large quantities.
I also read yesterday that the Wuhan virus is causing very serious health problems for people after they have recovered from the virus infection. The Wuhan virus is apparently doing a lot of damage to people who have it in their bodies for weeks and weeks.
HCQ is reported (French, March study) to have cleared the body of the Wuhan virus within six to nine days. That’s the route I’m going if I get this thing. The sooner it is out of the body, the better it appears to be for long-term health. There should be a third category for Wuhan virus. Along with the number of deaths, and the number of recoveries, there should be a category for the number of recoveries with long-term adverse health effects.
The Wuhan virus is not the equivalent of the flu. It can do serious damage to those susceptible to it.
icisil
Just for balance, so that WUWT can’t be accused of cherry picking:
https://news.yahoo.com/studies-clarify-drugs-help-hurt-173946353.html
The Raoult group’s 3,737 patient study came out on June 25th, so let’s add that in too:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7315163/
Reach your own conclusions from their conclusions.
Here the link to my comment in that concern
Did you read that ?
Just for the “balance” in your mind 😀
Something for your balance too
What happend belated to Lancet “study” ?
Follow the money 😀
“Recovery is the large British multi-arm, phase 3 trial evaluating 6 potential treatments for Covid 19. “
Clyde, in this day and age, I’m afraid “studies” don’t impress. It doesn’t matter what the science is, political agendas and an amoral society has harmed them all. The egregiously Lysenkoist Lancet Study and New England Journal of Medicine had to be retracted and apologized for (I’m sure their lawyers advised them to apologize )
The great extinctions of the geological record have of late been undergoing “rediscovery” that “carbon” turns out to be the cause, do tell.
Remember the prize is a world тоталiтагуаи gov. where truth is not only not valued but probably illegal.
@ Philip Mulholland
Are you sure the family name isn’t “Brewster”? 😀
LOL. I love “Gummi Bear” but it is a sad commentary when a twitter user called “Gummi Bear” is more up to date than most governors.
Another great one is c19study.com
Cheers
Too many comments, so this one may get lost in the haystack, but here goes:
Another treatment is being discussed on the Web, Budesonide:
https://youtu.be/zHoRCM6a_PU
Budesonide is a steroid used in inhalers for asthmatics (but NOT for attacks). One brand name is Pulmicort. It has been safely used in children.
It has allegedly been used for respiratory anti-inflammation in Covid patients with allegedly great results. See the report linked above (if it hasn’t been deleted/cancelled/censored yet).
The patients which Dr Richard Bartlett treated with Budesonide also received Clarithromycin, zinc and aspirin.
https://americacanwetalk.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ColumnByDrBartlettReCOVID-5.pdf
“HCQ + Azithromcyn + Zinc will never be prescribed here.”
https://twitter.com/voiceanddesign/status/1283857721973002240
Thanks isicil
Oreganol is now on my list.
I’ve been taking Colloidal (not Ionic) Zinc and Silver – the nanometer particles size is said to over come cell transport/penetration difficulty.
No money in it . . .
It is one of the reasons that the NHS is turning out to have the worst performance of all western health systems. That and other failures.
The front line staff in ‘trauma’ mode did well, the rest of it has been total pants.
Not so, David, only in part of the UK.
In Scotland (which is part of the UK) if you experience any WuFlu symptoms you must get a WuFlu test at once.
In Australia the blood bank has had a flood of donations after an appeal. They are now asking for recovered Covid patients to come foreward so that a trial can be done using naturally occurring antibodies from the donor.
They won’t take my 1980’s UK BSE contaminated O+ monkey blood, apparently the best blood to have in the “fight” against COVID-19.
Me neither, but us rabbits have very different blood anyway.
Can I sue the Australian Government for sending me to the UK for 12 months through 1980-81?
The French authorities will not take my blood because I lived in the UK during the BSE problem, even though I do not eat red meat; I have difficulty in digesting it.
same here, us army in germany in the 1980’s, mad cow disease exposure. cannot donate blood.
I can’t donate blood here in the Colonies either, having lived in the UK from 1985-1987, the early years of the BSE spread.
Guess who predicted the spread of BSE in the UK? None other than Prof. Lockdown.
The good professor predicted that vCJD, the human form of mad cow disease, could kill up to 50,000 Britons. The actual number now stands at 178, at last count. Many thinking people would call that a refutation, not only of the model but also the proposed link between BSE and vCJD. One might ask how many cases of vCJD would have happened if the BSE epidemic had not occurred.
One might even question the entire prion model for the two diseases. Oops… not allowed to suggest group-think in medicine. Forget I said it.
Darned shame as they have reduced the number of donations the ladies can do so we need more guys to pick up the slack.
On the good news side us O+ types have a higher resistance to covid-19 (at least according to one study, LOL). They still take mine and I’m 50+ donations now. Going for 3 digits!
“so that a trial can be done using naturally occurring antibodies from the donor.”
I have heard nothing but good things about using antibodies from recovered Wuhan virus patients to treat new infections. We had a guy at my local city hospital who was given the plasma treatment last month and he said he almost immediately felt better after the plasma was administered and was able to leave the hospital just a few days later.
There is a strong suspicion that they gave Boris the plasma treatment.
It was the only thing that worked for Spanish flu so there was some confidence in it from the start.
Tom Abbott
July 18, 2020 at 4:18 am
That is not antibody artificial treatment, it is natural, very very very expensive, prohibitive in the consideration of mass industrial application.
Can not be abused by the hyenas. TOO TOO EXPENSIVE FOR rolled out MASS APPLICATION.
Good working efficient processes can not be utilized in the scope of serving the enrichment and the urge of “cicadas”… ever.
cheers
You must be translating from some other language, whiten. So I try to take that into account when I find your comments particularly incomprehensible.
But why would a relatively low-tech process like convalescent plasma be hyper-expensive? You get blood from recovered patients, separate out the cells, and infuse the remaining liquid (the plasma). The separation is traditionally done with a centrifuge, but can also use a membrane filter.
It has to be substantially cheaper than remdesivir.
Hyenas and cicadas? Something is lost in the translation.
Rich Davis
July 19, 2020 at 6:22 am
——–
Thanks for your reply.
How expensive do you think an artificial component produced, has to be in consideration of a 30 to 40 or maybe 50 years of continuous reproduction required?
Do you think there is any laboratory that can produce a platinum standard antibody, artificially, when that requires a never ending reproduction for a time span of many decades?
Don’t you think this will be very expensive?
Do you think there is any laboratory that can replicate the “factory production-reproduction” of a immune system of a 70+ old humano.
In main concept, I expect that you realize, I am not against the artificial antibody as a treatment or either the vaccines.
But both hold the clause of benefit and also destruction.
Very thin line in between.
Quite a moronic cowboy attitude to consider such as, as silver bullet proof.
Simple, time component very expensive deal, not properly replicable.
Just a further point,
neither vaccines or artificial antibody treatment can be feasible or worth it in the case of HIV-AIDS.
But, maybe, due to clearly addressed parameters, the plasma antibody treatment, the natural one, can do wonders in case of HIV-AIDS, if properly applied.
Not sure how clear this is to you!
Naturally produced antibodies consist in the proposition of
strict precise-accurate production in the mean of up to decades, in the count of individuals,
and even far longer proposition of time in means of populations or herds.
No matter how good or helpful the artificial antibody treatment could be, in the end it will face nature, the herd immunity,
being subjected to a flush out, as not possible of it being the best immune response there in the environment.
No laboratory can ever replicate that, ugely expensive, evolution in its core.
No laboratory or industry will ever be possible to replicate nature, not properly.
Time runs deep , very deep in nature, something impossible to truly replicate artificially.
Some say millions, some say billions, some say thousands of years.
The expense you concerned about, is not in the artificial protocol, it is in the natural one, as it not possible ever to be properly replicated by monkeys that happen to be governed by hyenas and cicadas.
cheers
Whiten,
You replied to Tom’s comment, which was about convalescent plasma treatment, not artificial antibodies. I guess that you missed that point.
I’m sure that the artificial antibodies are very expensive (at least at this point), and they are certainly not a proven technology. I would also be very cautious about it.
Still not understanding the hyenas and cicadas, and now you add monkeys.
Rich Davis
July 19, 2020 at 12:05 pm
Thanks again, Rich.
The very fact of artificial antibodies it means less expensive and affordable for mass application than natural one.
That is why we have vaccines too.
One of the earlier and low-tech processes was the gain of gold and diamonds, but still many thousands of years later, still both very very expensive.
The point of cicadas hyenas and monkeys is a way of expression.
cicadas – very noisy zhuzhiing all the time and no profitable work or value.
hyenas – tearing apart anything of value with no regard or responsibility.
monkeys – looking or getting their hands in shiny things and thinking they have touched the sky, and now and then throwing tantrums or “hand grenades” around, just for the fun of it.
Simply a way of expression. 🙂
cheers
Going back over your prior comments, I see that I misunderstood you at the beginning. Sorry about that.
Your argument was that it is convalescent plasma treatment that is too expensive to apply to the whole population. (I guess those are the cicadas).
Your expectation is that any artificial antibody will be a shoddy product that is intended to cut the cost of processing blood donations, and to allow the pharmaceutical companies to profit where they had little opportunity to profit from convalescent plasma therapy. (I guess those are the hyenas?).
It will have to be a poor quality product because natural antibodies are a complex system that took evolutionary timeframes to develop. The researchers (the monkeys) won’t be able to duplicate this complexity.
I take it that you refer to the masses of population as cicadas from the point of view of the arrogant hyenas is that it?
Well, if we have bridged the language and culture gap, I think that I mostly agree that your analysis could be correct.
When we see the remdesivir vs HCQ controversy, that looks a lot like your hyenas and monkeys in action.
But the difference is that Big Pharma tries to suppress a therapy that is low cost and effective so that an inferior expensive treatment can be seen as the only option. Surely they hope to get the government to pay for their shoddy product for all of the cicadas. No honest and intelligent official would choose the more expensive, less effective therapy, so we must presume that some self-dealing is going on with bribes from the hyenas in Big Pharma to the hyenas in Big Government. No hyena cares if their actions hurt the cicadas. Why would anyone care about the cicadas? Get the monkeys busy!
In the case we were discussing, I suspect that the reality is closer to the remdesivir case, than the way you have seen it. The argument won’t be that artificial antibodies are cheaper, it will be that there isn’t enough blood available for convalescent plasma therapy, so the much more expensive substitute will be needed in order to treat all the cicadas. (OK, I concede in advance the flaw in my argument. If there isn’t enough blood available, then the law of supply and demand makes CPT more expensive or at least unavailable if the government doesn’t allow a market price for the blood).
The government will be convinced that this a silver bullet that doesn’t require any effort on their part (just more debt piled on the cicadas), and also looks like a breakthrough that they can claim as being the fruits of their efforts to find a solution.
I hope I got it right with understanding your argument this time whiten.
Rich Davis
July 20, 2020 at 4:38 am
Ok Rich.
“I take it that you refer to the masses of population as cicadas from the point of view of the arrogant hyenas is that it?”
——————————————-
Nope, sorry.
The main meaning of cicadas, in this context, can be drawn by the point of the fable.
Cicadas versus ants.
The masses of populations are to be considered as ants not cicadas.
Even when in the consideration of the expression, still all else part of populations, but not as main at that… not as a majority.
And if it helps,
my main points that I try to put forward in my comments are not much driven by the merit of weighting motivations or intentions, or at least not mainly driven by it.
More to do with the degree of responsibility or the lack of it… whatever be the case.
When considering responsibility, especially in the clause of gross diminished responsibility, the intentions or the motivations do not much make any difference there… oh well not to me or the way I view it.
I am not a revolutionary type, or an anarchist.
I do not call or propagate, that in consideration of a flow or a crack in a structure the structure must be destroyed collapsed and redone,
especially when a lot of investment has gone in making it… in ages.
For as long as valuable assets, capital assets, are not managed or utilized as monopolies, or not considered as for immediate demolition because of some superficial unpleasant flow… then as far as I can tell, no need to discuss issues in the manner of the expression I offered in our exchange. 🙂
I am not sure how much this helps with this conversation of ours.
Thanks again.
cheers
Very interesting. I must say that you are an enigma. Aesop’s fable which in English is usually called the Ant and the Grasshopper, teaches us that the grasshopper (cicada) who wastes his summer singing instead of working to prepare for the winter, deserves his fate for being lazy. He starves to death in the winter after the ants refuse to give him any grain. In your fable, it seems that there are no good guys.
You are patient to the extreme Rich, just don’t cross him.
William Astley
July 17, 2020 at 8:04 pm
Oh, sorry to say.
From my point of view, that is stupid in steroids, especially for influenza infection-diseases.
Interferes with the herd immunity.
The natural antibody, even in the lower tier stage, the fairly basic stage, is far better than the artificial one.
Besides the full incorporation of the antibody and its efficiency is achieved on the onset of the disease.
That artificial antibody treatment, if good, only efficient if used for non infected, like a vaccine.
Could work better than a vaccine, if proper, but only for non infected, who have no encounter with the virus.
But still no so good for the 50+ old.
But as always, profit rules the day, like in the case of the expected vaccine, where the proposition that immunity last for life is not quite helpful, and many in the academia claiming already something stupid, that in the case of this novel virus the immunity does not last.
oh well, still a good new techno thingy… to consider.
cheers
Reheneron is very expensive and not tjat effective.
IVERMECTIN , SOMETIMES called the Japanese wonder drug, seems to work better.
It has been used for up to 4 billion doses for non-covid issues so far .
Cut the mortality rate in half for severe covid patients that seemed likely to die soon, in one US study.
“The FDA-approved drug ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro”
Antiviral Research, Volume 178, June 2020,
Received 18 March 2020, Revised 27 March 2020, Accepted 29 March 2020, Available online 3 April 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2020.104787
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Highlights:
Ivermectin is an inhibitor of the COVID-19 causative virus (SARS-CoV-2) in vitro.
A single treatment able to effect ~5000-fold reduction in virus at 48 h in cell culture.
Ivermectin is FDA-approved for parasitic infections, and therefore has a potential for repurposing.
Ivermectin is widely available, due to its inclusion on the WHO model list of essential medicines.
———-
“How a Grass Roots Health Movement Led to Acceptance of Ivermectin as a COVID-19 Therapy in Peru”
TrialSite News JUN 12, 2020
https://www.trialsitenews.com/how-a-grass-roots-health-movement-led-to-acceptance-of-ivermectin-as-a-covid-19-therapy-in-peru/
PS: “Ivermectin: a systematic review from antiviral effects to COVID-19 complementary regimen” by Fatemeh Heidary & Reza Gharebaghi
The Journal of Antibiotics (2020) Published: 12 June 2020 at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41429-020-0336-z
“Conclusion: In this systematic review, we showed antiviral effects of ivermectin on a broad range of RNA and DNA viruses by reviewing all related evidences since 1970. … it could serve as a potential candidate in the treatment of different types of viruses including COVID-19. Clinical trials are necessary … On April 10, 2020, FDA issued a statement concerning self-administration of ivermectin against COVID-19 [43] referring to recently published in vitro study on this subject [15]. FDA highlighted that this type of in vitro study is usually used in the early stages of drug development.”
Just hope Mr. Trump does not get word of this…
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
Sounds like a similar approach.
Ebola cannot be compared to the coronovirus in any way.
Here is a transcript of a BBC radio inerview with a Ugandan nurse a week or so back:
Nick Robinson: It’s coming up to 19 minutes to nine. It’s not very long ago that we were told that the coronavirus pandemic could have a terrible impact on Africa, a continent that has suffered terribly from the effects of Ebola and AIDS, but so far at least, so far it has not turned out that way. This week we’re examining how the virus is affecting devolping countries around the world. In a moment we will hear from the World Health Organisation. First though the picture on the ground in Uganda. A country that has so far recorded no deaths from COVID-19. I’ve been speaking to a nurse in a General Hospital in the Rakai district of Uganda; Maria Nekalanda:
Maria: We really haven’t seen many patients of the symptoms of Covid. Like we have the measures in place, we do have the tests for outpatients that are coming in, but actually we have not recorded anyone.
Nick: So, is it turning out to be nothing like as scary as maybe you thought it would be a while ago?
Maria: Well, in the start we actually panicked. We were thinking, Oh my god, we are going to be the next dead people and it turned out that over time we stopped panicking and understood that probably this whole Covid situation is just not going to be as bad.
Nick: Are you saying that you’re no longer scared of COVID-19?
Maria: Yeah, we are no longer scared. We are following guidelines, but we are continuing with work.
Nick: And do you have all the protective equipment that you would want to have?
Maria: No, that’s actually a part of what stopped scaring us because for a greater part of the season we did not have protective gear. The health workers on the ground that are also handling general patients are not protected.
Nick: What about for the people who have this? You’ve seen people who get Ebola and how serious that is. How does Covid compare for them?
Maria: Comparing Covid to Ebola will be a kind of joke to the many Ugandans that have lived to see the impacts of Ebola, because people can deal with Covid 19 and they eat normally, they interact in communities, until probably they are found out and they are literally interacting with each other. That doesn’t happen with Ebola. Whilst there is an Ebola outbreak in the region pretection is at the very high pitch. People don’t keep running in at out of those particular areas. But for Covid you realise having Health Ministers come to places where Covid 19 is unchecked and Ebola is like 100 times worse.
Nick: Tell me about the lockdown in your area of Uganda or in Uganda as a whole if you like? What sort of lockdown is it and are people happy to go along with it or are they very frustrated?
Maria: People are actually frustrated because they have been financially affected. They’ve lost a lot in business. They are struggling to put bread on the table. They are like “well, you’re talking about a pandemic which I haven’t been able to go to work, why don’t you let me work?” So the whole lockdown situation is like a punishment.
Nick: Have you any theories why Covid is much less serious in Uganda than it seems to be in the UK for example?
Maria: I would think about the lifestyle. Ugandan’s they have probably access to more organic food. Lower cases of chronic illnesses like obesity. But um…we just think we have a bit of unexplained immunity to that disease. We are not dying just as bad.
Nick: That was Maria Nekalanda a nurse in the Rakai district of Uganda
Has the expected dip in co2 all the Alarmists told us would happen because of all the Covid-19 lockdowns come to fruition yet?
Only the dumb ones say there will be a measurable dip in CO2.
Here’s a link to a diagram that explains the CO2 cycle. Note all the natural sinks and sources. Note also that the human contribution includes land use, not just fossil fuels.
Natural processes are much larger than the fossil fuel contribution to atmospheric CO2 (which is why nobody expects an actual dip). The only way CAGW alarmism works is by assuming that all the fossil fuel CO2 enters the atmosphere and stays there for decades and nothing else changes. The problem is that things change.
The planet has greened by about one continent’s worth of land (ie. 14%) in the satellite era. That’s a pretty huge change. It means the alarmists’ carefully balanced budget is no better than a wonderful example of Hollywood Accounting.
commieBob
Two continents the size of mainland USA according to NASA.
How many Manhattans?
Please people, stick to the approved units of measure!
Olympic swimming pools, makes for a LOT bigger number. Or you could go down to postage stamps if you want to get really scary.
Zero HIROSHIMA BOMBS = NO STORY, nothing to see here, move along, move along . . . .
UK’s preferred measuring system is the “Wales”, or for smaller areas the “football pitch” and further down (for both height and length) the “London bus”.
I have seen “Greater London” as a unit for measuring the size of bits that fall off Antarctica!
Considering that the Hiroshima Bomb could destroy 5 square miles and the U.S. is 3.7M square miles that would be a greening area equivalent to the potential area of destruction from 1.7M Hiroshima Bombs
Such comparisons are useless, and often used to inflame. Like comparing the number of US covid deaths with the number of US dead in Viet Nam. One has nothing to do with the other.
You are correct…
I should have said that the current greening from enhanced atmospheric CO2 levels is equivalent to (negative)1.7M Hiroshima Bombs
HotScot
good to see a post from you, hadn’t seen one for a wee while.
Nice diagram.
The only reason there is a net sink for CO2 is that some part of the system is CO2 deficient.
It was almost 418 ppm at its peak at Mauna Loa in May and it was 413 ppm on July 13. (This has to do with the natural cycle.)
The reported value for July 15 was 415.19 ppm. Its silly that the variation from one day to the next might be about 2 ppm and yet NOAA reports daily values to the 0.01 ppm.
The Earth’s temperature is reported to the .01 of a degree. If it isn’t to two decimal places, it just isn’t accurate.
They are working on it.
On July 8, the Chinese embassy in Kazakhstan warned Chinese citizens that the country had an “unknown pneumonia” outbreak more deadly than COVID-19.
https://www.livescience.com/kazakhstan-unknown-pneumonia-covid-19.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53363024
Keep in mind, nearly all infectious diseases are worse than COVID-19 Wo-flu.
https://twitter.com/mvanvol_van/status/1284677607745900550?s=20
You’re kidding right? I believe that Twit post as much as I believe the moon is made of cheese.
The question isn’t if the moon is made of cheese. We all know the answer to that. The real question is it Swiss or Gouda?
🙂
On July 4th, San Francisco and the Bay Area is essentially always socked in with fog, all Mark Twain-like. This is obviously noticeable because of the effect on fireworks displays. This July, no such thing, it stayed hot with no breeze through the Gate until about 4 – 5 days ago. Random weather event, fewer particulates for seeding …… eh meteorologists? Joe?
If it’s a dumb question, I can handle being told. Just curious and also impressed by the irony of the perfect weather for organized fireworks being the year that there were no organized fireworks (allegedly, as some people got their hands on the expensive ones)!
There were several posts on the supposedly record temperature of 38°C for Verkhoyansk on 20 June, see links below:https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/02/arctics-hottest-day-not-so-fast/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/07/remember-when-we-were-told-the-arctic-is-on-fire-and-we-should-all-be-terrified-its-snowing-there-now/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/23/climate-change-temperature-hits-100-degrees-above-arctic-circle-just-like-100-years-ago/ However, the 38°C has been deleted and has not been reinstated, see here (accessed on 18 July 2020): https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnRSM00024266.dat However, you don’t get the MSM telling you that the record has been deleted. Therefore, the highest temperature shown in the record for Verkhoyansk remains at 37.3°C, which occurred on 25 July 1988 and it is not a record for the Arctic. The record for the Arctic is still 37.8°C, which occurred on 27 June 1915 in Fort Yukon, Alaska.
(Edited, to separate the URL’s) SUNMOD
Intriguing!
The media including BBC got hugely excited by this 38 C in Siberia story. Hilarious if it turns out to be non-existent.
As I understand it, that temperature reading has STILL not been verified. But the story is now out in the wild…
Patrick MJD
July 18, 2020 at 2:29 am
Will you please tell the Russians to stop boasting.
We’ve just had the most daily rainfall in the north of New Zealand in 500 years (I kid you not) according to the Met. Service and breathlessly reported in all local media tonight!
And we all know what has caused it…
Records might be sketchy from the 1520s, despite the meticulous record-keeping of the Maori Met Office?
How good is your medieval Taiwanese? (That’s where the Maoris came from.)
不好!
But I think they came from Polynesia? Indigenous Taiwanese may also come from Polynesia.
Well, I guess it must have been very wet ~2000 years ago for Tane Mahuta (It’s a bloody big tree) to plant some roots!
Polynesians came from Peru or Chile. People always thought the Maoris were Polynesians until someone did the genetics, and found that they were Taiwanese.
http://library.ifla.org/2689/
Correction – it seems that most colonisation of the Pacific islands came from Asia, and spread eastward across the Pacific; not from South America.
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/13/4826.full.pdf
I think you’re misinterpreting the abstract of that Taiwanese paper, Phil, due to its broken English.
I think that the correct understanding would be:
Modern immigration from Taiwan to New Zealand has increased and researchers have noticed that immigrants of known indigenous Taiwanese origin have similar DNA to Maori.
They also analyzed the oral histories of the two groups and found some similarities as might be expected if they have a distant common ancestor.
That would be consistent with the idea that Polynesia was the common origin for the Maori and the indigenous Taiwanese.
I don’t find any references that would confirm your interpretation, but the official NZ government site contradicts it.
https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/living-in-nz/history-government/a-brief-history
Rich
The Maoris who originally settled New Zealand (Aoteoroa, the land of the long white cloud) 800 years ago came from Taiwan. Not Polynesia, not South America, not Californian not anywhere else. Genetic research has made that clear. They were the first humans in that country.
However looking for scientific information now about genetics and race is impossible due to the political schlerosis on the taboo subject having more or less shut down communication on the issue. But it is what it is. Maoris came from Taiwan 800 years ago. Be a creationist and deny it if you like, it’s your first amendment right.
Phil,
First off, I don’t see how it’s even vaguely an important question, unless maybe Taiwan would like to stake a claim on New Zealand. And I really don’t give a rip about it one way or the other.
However, I tend to have a hard time ignoring when there is a false claim about something. (A character flaw).
If you’re correct, then the New Zealand government is wrong or intentionally lying about the history of their own country. If you’re correct, then (shock-shock) Wikipedia is wrong. If you’re correct, do you have one unambiguous piece of evidence? But you could be right, and everybody else has some hidden agenda for not admitting the Maori are from Taiwan. What do you suppose that would be? How on earth is this a creationism question btw?
Adjusted link address:
https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnRSM00024266.dat
Nick Stokes and Greg, are still having hallucinations that 100F existed for the June 20 date, I have pointed out that it was never verified nearly a week later.
It appears that the “verification” process fails to support the 100F claim, otherwise why the deletion?
Donald Klipstein kindly gave me a source that supposedly supports the 100F claim, but a search for the city never shows up:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/02/arctics-hottest-day-not-so-fast/#comment-3027750
I looked HERE for the city can’t get it to show up, even used the SEARCH box, zero results.
Maybe someone else can find it….., until then, the RECORDED high is still 97F as I showed using the links that keeps track of the weather data.
After 13 + days of NO verification and the 97F number still listed convinces me that 100F is a probable lie.
Here is the link that still shows 97F:
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/verkhoyansk/historic?month=6&year=2020
Might try a local news source:
https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/pole-of-cold-district-that-recently-recorded-desert-like-heat-of-38c-now-sees-snow/
It is in English.
Still not a validated temperature as they didn’t post the source for it, just hearsay.
Nope I still follow the actual 97F record, which is duly posted.
Websites Crash Worldwide as Cloudflare Suffers Outage
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/07/17/websites-crash-worldwide-as-cloudflare-suffers-outage/
I thought there must have been some shenanigans going on on the internet as I kept getting errors trying to connect to various websites. I assumed someone was attacking a DNS server somewhere and I guess I was right. The Russians maybe? It’s always the Russians, isn’t it, Democrats. Then there’s the Chinese, and the Iranians and the North Koreans and kids in their basements.
I hear the United States is going to start going on offense more in regard to internet attacks by bad actors. Blocking attacks will only be part of the response.
And it sounds like the Mad Mullahs of Iran are having a hard time quelling the desire for freedom among the Iranian people. Things are looking up over there.
I wonder if China will send troops to Iran to try to stop an overthrow of the Mad Mullahs. They just might do it as they seem to be acting pretty recklessly lately. Xi’s delusions of world domination may lead him astray. I don’t think the Iranian people would welcome a foreign occupying force. And Trump will be on the side of the Iranian people in such a situation.
The conservative thinkers, believe that Iran is too weak and has too much internal troubles (riots in the streets and burning of government stuff), for the Iran leaders, to even consider, starting a conflict, against the US which they cannot win militariarily.
The US, as the last Security of Defence, Madison noted, would respond to an Iran attack, to minimize Iran casualties and remove the risk.
Madison suggested that logical obvious possible targets (everything that has a low risk of Iran civil casualties and that appropriately minimizes the Iran military casualties would be on table, Madison stated) would be take out some or all of the Iran power plants and destroy Iran military equipment which would shut down the country and set Iran military back decades.
Iran is not the wild card.
There is evidence that something going on in China, China is preparing for something. China is via their official propaganda media was been saying is difficult for the Chinese people to not take action. It will be interesting to see what China does before and immediately and after the US election.
China has completed their take-over of Hong Kong and are working on the South Sea, with the argument that China has a piece of paper that has nine dashes on it, and China really, really, wants more and more territory. The Trump argument is that if a country starts to take over the world by force, they will not stop with one region.
It is dangerous, for the US and I guess the free world, that the US democratic candidate appears to have dementia. Bidden had what appeared to be a second stroke, on stage, on camera, in January of this year.
Bidden is recently, having trouble, composing a couple of sentences, about a simple subject. He adds words to his sentences, that he remembers and that he has used in the last couple of days, that have zero to do with the subject of what he is trying to say.
Bidden’s sentences are not confusing, they are the sentences of a man who, who it appears due to brain damage, is now child like and manipulatable.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/21/joe-biden-we-have-lawyers-going-out-to-every-polling-every-uh-voter-registration-physician-in-the-states/
I want to share a quote from the Bari Weiss open resignation letter to NY Times earlier this week:
“”A new consensus has emerged in the press, but perhaps especially at this paper: that truth isn’t a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else,” Weiss similarly wrote in her letter to Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger.”
This also so captures a lot of what is happening now in the climate pseudoscience world.
As it applies to climate change orthodoxy today, that quote could be reformulated as:
“Pursuit of natural truths in Earth’s climate and understanding what controls its stability is no longer a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose (assumed) job is to inform everyone else.”
I think that captures the current state of mainstream climate science today. A few have taken it as their assumed role to guard the climate orthodoxy on CO2 (and thus their reputations) embodied in things like the otherwise bad-joke on science IPCC CMIP process and how climate change is now taken with religion-like faith by so many, even people trained in science. It also explains the rise of phenomenon like Greta Thunberg elevated to Climate Sainthood by both the UNFCCC and liberal press.
Anyhows, I liked the quote.
“and how climate change is now taken with religion-like faith by so many, even people trained in science.”
Human-caused Climate Change and fixing it are made to order for authoritarians, and the propagandists for the authoritarians, the News Media, promote this idea at every opportunity for political purposes.
Brainwashing from the News Media naturally influences a lot of people, but in the case of Human-caused climate change, it has had less of an effect, as not many people consider it a big problem, according to polls.
The ones who are truly influenced by the Media propaganda are the politicians, who mostly don’t question the claim that CO2 will cause the Earth’s climate to change. All the politicians try to do is to position themselves properly so as not to recieve criticism for their climate change positions.
The Big Problem for the Western Democracies is the institute we have set up to be the voice of society, the News Media, is lying to everyone and creating a false reality that requires that political power be turned over to the radical left, the Elites who will guide the rest of us in how we live our lives.
The Western Democracies are subjected to mass brainwashing every minute of every day. It’s actually encouraging to realize there are large numbers of people who don’t buy into the brainwashing even as intense as it is. We’ll know the number of people in the United States who have been brainwashed successfully by the Media in the Novermber presidential elections.
We will see who the majority really is then. Let’s hope we are not living in an Idiocracy. I don’t think we are, but we’ll just have to wait and see if that Silent, Reasonable Majority is still out there..
The radical Left has control of the Media and the school system. Will they be successful in undermining our system of govenment? If they are not, it won’t be for lack of trying.
Hoping this comment does NOT make the migration (will give me ‘plausible deniability’ at a future time … )
Last year (June) I gave a presentation to a group, the central thesis of which was that the effect(s) of all the electronic media in our society is/are having a measurable effect on human intelligence. One of my sources was a book, along with some half-dozen articles from across the spectrum.
My thesis was that different observers, who are, in general, not known to each other, are starting to see similar patterns. The author of the book I used even stated that she started seeing a change in her own thinking/thought patterns, and abilities, NOT related to aging.
For the record: I do NOT own a cell phone; or a ‘tablet’, or a ‘mobile device’ or ‘smartwatch’ or any of the other “essential” electronic gadgets that everyone seems to be unable to spend any more than a few seconds away from. My observation is that people are being turned into “screen zombies”. The above-referenced publications have led me to the conclusion that human intelligence is in decline. Not uniformly, mind you; just that as a species, that “normal curve” with a mean of 100 is now likely somewhere around 99 or 98, and moving to the left (pun intended).
What I see is the human animal letting some electronic ‘brain’ do all of their thinking for them. Zager and Evans keep popping up in my mind: “Some machine is doing that for you … ”
Gifted foresight on their part, I suppose.
Go ahead: tear into me the way my audience did. I was expecting them to tell me to go pound sand, and they did not disappoint, so hit me with your best shots. WUWT won’t remember, and neither will I.
Regards to all,
Vlad
“Gifted foresight on their part, I suppose.”
Except their timeline was WAY off.
All too true, Mr. Alberts; all too true. The fact that it is occurring at all should be the alarming thing. I guess the question becomes one of either slowing down the inevitable progression, or stopping it altogether. I’m not confident of either, which means that as my generation dies off, the decline may steepen. Upthread, someone referenced “Idiocracy”. I fear we are in the early stages,
Vlad
Vlad, I believe that the social media platforms are becoming a ‘cheat’ method of learning. People are used to getting their information in small bytes. They believe that they have the ‘facts’ when in reality they are too lazy to go and look for any detail, let alone from a broad range of sources. They are also unfortunately, influenced by the number of ‘likes’, the more likes there are that lean to their way of thinking the less likely that they will do any research at all.
I’m not on any social media platform either so I tend to agree with you. It’s likely your audience ‘follow’ social media, hence they are not likely to agree with you. They are in fact influenced by social media to a larger degree than they would want to admit. They themselves need to be accepted and ‘liked’ by their peers. After all when they see all those ‘likes’ then they must be going in the right direction. They become driven by affirmation and when they feel so affirmed then they cannot possibly be wrong.
It’s part of the reason it’s so difficult to sway opinions. Consensus has replaced actual learning.
I believe this is true. I have noticed some effects in my own thinking. I have now started reversing the process but it is taking time.
Btw, what Bari Weiss is describing is Gnosticism, an ancient heresy. It periodically returns.
Vlad
That was a very intelligent comment.
In fact it is brilliant.
One of my hobbies is writing.
I wrote a financial newsletter for over 40 years as a hobby and charged one dollar a copy.
Never advertised and reached only 100 to 200 subscribers a month.
I started a free climate science blog a few years ago — recently surpassed 60,000 page views;
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
That is a huge difference.
There is now an ability to find a specific point of view, or bias, online ,
completely ignoring contrary points of view.
That’s a problem.
That so many Democrat teachers and professors automatically trust government officials is puzzling, and another problem.
Even worse, you can say anything online, true or not, and often delete it later.
USE a moniker, and no one knows who you are.
I use my real name and never change material posted on my blogs once posted — so if I write something dumb it stays!
That is an interesting point – it seems that educated fools are more easily brainwashed than the great unwashed.
Naomi Seibt gives me a lot of hope for the younger generations, who have arguably been harder washed than we older fossils
Amen
Here is something interesting in Astronomy.
Astronomers have found an new unexplained astronomical object that is not in galaxies.
What is strange is the object is circular and it emits only in the long wave (radio part of the electromagnetic spectrum) and it appears to be above galaxies.
This is a link that discusses the finding and a quote. In the article, there is a link to a paper, which is to published in Nature.
https://www.sciencealert.com/mysterious-unidentified-circles-have-been-found-in-space
….Even so, it could still be a quirk of the instrument, or a local detection, like the time the Parkes Observatory was detecting a microwave oven. That seems unlikely, given the stringent efforts to maintain a radio quiet zone at the ASKAP site, but it’s not completely out of the question.
That possibility was put to rest when the fourth ORC was discovered – in archival data, collected in 2013 with the Giant MetreWave Radio Telescope, a few years before ASKAP was switched on. Follow-up observations of ORC 1 and ORC 2 using a different telescope, the Australia Telescope Compact Array, also revealed the objects.
And they certainly are odd. All four ORCs are at high galactic latitudes, at some distance from the galactic plane, and are around 1 arcminute in diameter. That’s around 3 percent of the size of the Moon in the night sky, but since we don’t know how far away they are, that may not mean much.
All four are also only visible in radio wavelengths – they are completely invisible in X-ray, optical, or infrared wavelengths.
It’s possible that they could be linked to galactic activity, but only two of the ORCs have an optical galaxy near the centre of the radio emission. One of the ORCs looks somewhat different – ORC 3 appears to be more of a uniform disc, compared to the more ring-like appearance of the other four.
You might be thinking, “Hey, that description sounds a little bit like a supernova remnant or a planetary nebula”, and you would not be wrong. But the researchers already thought of that. For planetary nebulae, the radio spectral index is not consistent with the radio spectral index of the ORCs.
As for supernova remnants, the problem is with numbers. The EMU survey only looked at a small patch of the sky, and detected three ORCs. For that to be likely, there would need to be at least 50,000 supernova remnants in the Milky Way. We know of only around 350.
The team believes that whatever is causing the ORCs is likely outside the Milky Way, like a giant spherical shockwave from some massive event.
They’re giant signs that say “DON’T PANIC”
+42
Or the opposite.
Smoke rings blown out by black hole axial jets?
It is assumed the event horizon of a black hole is caused by gravity, it can also be caused by time distortion.
Any massive body which has not passed over the “black hole threshold” will still have similar characteristics. For example, light/Energy passing through the time distortion will do so so slowly as to appear as long wave radiation. The ultimate red shift.
A massive solar flare (or electrical / capacitor discharge to another binary star) with such an object could be viewed as a radio burst. Sort of a smaller version of the pulsar.
Lead author over at Arxiv with many such papers :
https://arxiv.org/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Norris%2C+R+P
One curious paper also from 2020 :
Cataloging the radio-sky with unsupervised machine learning: a new approach for the SKA era
And
WALLABY — An SKA Pathfinder HI Survey. Meaning ” The Widefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind surveY”.
Has anyone seen The Movie Dish about the Parkes Telescope?
I read that article on RT my comment:
Darth and the death stars
Extremely severe roasting of RECOVERY (French):
http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/oxford-les-auteurs-de-recovery-tente-de-cacher-des-morts-par-surdosage
The authors tried to hide the death caused by HCQ overdosing. If people died from overdose, it means that these insane doses still saved some people!
It’s not the first article in France Soir covering frauded studies against HCQ.
Not far away from a science paper !
Chapeau !
Hey everybody and particularly Anthony and his awesome team of moderators and regular contributors, its been a wonderful ride.
Long may it last.
Cheers
James
Well, after 40 days and nights of rain in the Pacific North West, I finally got to see Comet NEOWISE as it finally just cleared up at dusk. I couldn’t see it clearly until after 11 Am local time, as I am a bit northerly and the north western sky is still fairly bright. Not that bright and could only spot it by squinting my eyes and looking a bit off centre, and then could make out the tail right at 11 Pm. Was further north and higher in the sky than expected and just took another look at midnight PST, and a bit brighter. I guess it gets dimmer going forward, as it moves further away from the Sun.
Actually a triple bonus. While waiting after sunset around 10 Pm, Jupiter rose in the east, followed by Saturn, and both very bright. Will be in conjunction from our vantage point later this year as Jupiter overtakes Saturn on its journey around the ecliptic. Before 2020 ends, the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn will happen just before Christmas. These great Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions happen only every 20 years. The last one was in the year 2000. Their upcoming conjunction – December 21, 2020 – will be their closest since 1623.
And then a little after 11 Pm, the ISS Space Station made a very bright most northerly passover and lasted almost 5 minutes. Sure is a beautiful part of the galaxy we live in, and an especially beautiful solar system with the good Earth being the crown jewel in this neck of the woods-galaxy.
Hoping the return of WUWT to WordPress goes smoothly. You can get a real good education here. All you have to know is how to read, and soon you will be thinking critically for yourself.
One night in moon cycle, they are building a nice triangle, Moon, Jupiter and Saturn.
I had the luck to see it in April and first days in July.
“Well, after 40 days and nights of rain in the Pacific North West, I finally got to see Comet NEOWISE as it finally just cleared up at dusk.”
Huh? Where are you? I haven’t seen any rain on Whidbey Island or Mt Vernon area for more than a week, and then it was a light drizzle for a day or so. There have been a few overcast mornings, over the last few days, but no rain. Mostly sunny otherwise. Over the last 40 days, maybe 5 -10 had “rain” of any kind.
The Pacific North West is a big place Jeff. I am north of you 300 miles or so, and you are just south of the worst of the jet stream plowing into central BC bringing endless rain this year. Maybe a shift in the Hadley Cell which drives the jet stream? Would be nice to get an explanation from an unbrainwashed meteorologist why this year is different than a few years back (2017-2018) when everything was burning down. The Pacific Ocean is a little cooler…
“The region of North America along the Pacific coast, typically defined as the states of Washington and Oregon and the southern part of the province of British Columbia, but variously including northern California, Idaho, all of British Columbia, the Yukon territory, and the panhandle of or all of Alaska can be considered the Pacific North West.”
“The Pacific North West is a big place Jeff.”
I know, that’s why I was wondering where you were.
Glad you saw Neowise, Earthling2. I saw it before dawn in Belgium 5 days ago.
Comets remind me of new battery technology stories. They appear and are a sign of hope for clean energy and world peace, for a few days, then they’re gone.
Here’s the latest one: a new sodium-graphite sandwich, apparently. Promises to be as good as lithium batteries but without the lithium. Catch this sighting before it too disappears:
https://www.rt.com/news/495111-sodium-sandwich-replace-lithium-batteries/
If it works and is so much cheaper than the lithium battery market forces will take care of things in no time. Remember how quickly all kind of light bulbs, tubes, the lot, disappeared when the Leds came on-line.
“Ed Zuiderwijk July 18, 2020 at 1:43 am
Remember how quickly all kind of light bulbs, tubes, the lot, disappeared when the Leds came on-line.”
That was not driven by market forces. It was driven by Govn’t mandates.
To Ed’s point, LEDs replaced CFLs and many other types of bulbs not forced by government mandate.
Apropos to disinfection, UV LEDs are displacing Hg lamps due to numerous advantages.
No. It was in the case of dreadful CFLs, but LEDS are an easy calculation: it is only short time before the lower electricity consumption repays the increased capital cost.
LEDs are in every way except capital cost a better product.
Only partially so. But there was no government mandate needed to replace TV tubes and backlit screens by leds or oleds.
I like the light spectrum of an incandescent bulb better than LED, especially for reading, although LED is getting much better than it used to be. There was a sale on several years ago, and I bought a few hundred different wattages for next to nothing. Plus for 2/3 of the year, they heat my place with their wasteful heat. But I do use LED in many applications, as it just makes sense if you are paying for electricity or it is scarce. I have ‘free’ electricity at most of my places, either small hydro at the farm, or solar on my RV/truck camper and for other remote off grid properties, although it sure wasn’t free to put it all together.
The one big downer for LED is headlights, especially the ones coming at you in the dark when driving a dangerous mountain highway at night in a blizzard. But if you have the LED, you can see better, although I would fear blinding the oncoming driver, causing a head on collision. It can be downright deadly in the winter snow, especially if a semi truck doesn’t dim its high beam LED lights. I think we need to re-vist that rule allowing some LED headlights, especially on normal mode being so blindingly bright. Maybe LED on high beam if the auto dimming back to incandescent softer yellow light becomes more available. It is a safety issue.
We just bought a new light for our daughters’ bedroom. It’s a disc containing an array of small LEDs. It has a remote control and you can choose between yellower and bluer light, and intermediate. I remember a while back reading that quantum dot technology was allowing leds to emit a range of different colours. I’m no it sure if that’s already in consumer products.
A Govn’t bans something is not a mandate? Interesting…
I met my first Bona fide Black Lives Matter supporter last night.
He got really upset when I said the whole thing would blow over in a few months. I explained these things are cyclical and come around every generation or so – Martin Luther King in the 50’s, then the Black Power movement in the 70’s, and now BLM.
Of course he ticks all the required boxes for a BML supporter:-
Young white male – Tick
University educated – Tick
Lawyer – Tick
Works/Lives in London – Tick
Mother/Father extremely wealthy – Tick
Voted to remain in the EU – Tick
Rides a bicycle – Tick
Gamer – Tick
Attended COVID spreading marches – Tick
Knows EVERYTHING! – Tick
Unfortunately he’s been hanging around my daughter like a bad smell for several years, so I didn’t kick him out the house for being rude to his host (Me) about BLM – this time.
You should read Peter Turchin. He predicted an increase in socio-political instability in a comment to Nature in early 2010 when everybody else was predicting the opposite.
NATURE|Vol 463|4 February 2010
“Our decadal research predictions (‘2020 visions’ Nature 463, 26–32; 2010) provoked ideas — and ire.
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade
The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe, which could undermine the sort of scientific progress you describe in the Opinion collection of ‘2020 visions’.
Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political instability (P. Turchin and S. A. Nefedov Secular Cycles Princeton Univ. Press; 2009). In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. They all experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability.
Very long ‘secular cycles’ interact with shorter-term processes. In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth in the number of people in their twenties, like the youth bulge that accompanied the turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s. All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.
Records show that societies can avert disaster. We need to find ways to ameliorate the negative effects of globalization on people’s well-being. Economic inequality, accompanied by burgeoning public debt, can be addressed by making tax rates more progressive. And we should not expand our system of higher education beyond the ability of the economy to absorb university graduates. An excess of young people with advanced degrees has been one of the chief causes of instability in the past.
Peter Turchin Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06269, USA
He had developed his Secular-Cycles Socio-Historical theory in the previous years and followed with articles in which he demonstrated how socio-political instability followed the generational cycle that you have keenly observed.
Turchin, P., & Korotayev, A. (2020). The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment.
https://osf.io/7ahqn/download
Next time you give a copy of that article to that prick and you tell him he is just a mindless participant of a socio-political secular cycle. He’s gonna love it.
Hari Seldon Lives!
Interesting read, that paper.
I’d always been a bit sceptical of Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning (because sociology) though it ‘felt’ right to this Jonser.
The paper suggests the model supports their conclusions from a statistical basis.
Thanks Javier
Sounds like Heinlein’s “Year of the Jackpot” 🙂 🙂
The Marxists have been pushing the end of our prevailing society for a hundred years. This is a straight-line deal for them. This is not a “cycle.”
https://www.prageru.com/video/the-ferguson-lie/
HotScot,
If he knows everything, would you ask him who was it that banned slavery, agreed to foot the massive bill for paying off the slave-owners, and also paid for the enforcement of the world-wide ban on slavery? Some with their lives?
Also , could he tell you how long ago slaves existed in Europe, and why that same political culture decided to oppose it, at fantastic cost, some with their lives?
+600,000 Union Soldier Lives Mattered!
If you’re referring to the American Civil War, the most commonly quoted number is 620,000 total soldier deaths, approximately 360,000 Union and 260,000 Confederate. Others add about 30,000 to each side for deaths of POWs. The record keeping was abysmal.
The National Park Service lists a total of more than 642,000 Union casualties.
https://www.nps.gov/civilwar/facts.htm
The 642,427 total Union casualties have been divided accordingly:
· 110,100 killed in battle
· 224,580 diseases
· 275,174 wounded in action
· 30,192 prisoners of war
Yes, “casualties” includes deaths, wounded, captured, and missing. The comment referred to “Lives”, which would be about 360,000 Union lives lost. Casualties would be relevant to the total who served in the Union armies, roughly 2.1 million.
Out of sincere curiosity on my part, ask him his views on Islam, since its founding prophet owned, sold, bought, and captured slaves. Although he lived some 1400 years ago, people still revere him, and name their children in his honor. How can that be reconciled?
“Unfortunately he’s been hanging around my daughter like a bad smell for several years, so I didn’t kick him out the house for being rude to his host (Me) about BLM – this time.”
You sound like Archie bunker….
And yes it is cyclical, but sometimes during the cycle people like MLKJ make things change for the better.
Good to hear from you Meathead!
Now stifle yerself, willya, huh?
Perfect!
Perhaps you would like to compare and contrast MLKJ’s I Have a Dream speech with the vile spewings of BLM and their leader. MLKJ’s message was about love and brotherhood. BLM is the opposite.
“MLKJ’s message was about love and brotherhood. ‘ Agree. We need more of that today. It was a piece of history. Pity Trump doesn’t try a bit of “love and brotherhood” in his messages.
Simon you are the hater. You have TDS 🙁
And Simon comes slimin’
See – Trump’s message is the most positive, come together message in recent political memory – his message has been countered with almost unending hate, by progressives like you – who pretty much start with a lie, turn it into hate speech, and then have the nerve to pat yourself on the back for your high moral ground.
Simple Simon,
Back in Aug 1963, Martin Luther King invoked The American Dream, in his “I Have A Dream!” speech. As an 8 year old growing up in central Wisconsin, I remember watching his speech on our grainy pictured old black and white TV. When he said “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.“, it resonated with me. Even an 8 year old could see the honest truth in that statement!
Simple Simon, you attempt to conflate the color blind ‘dream’ speech of passivist Martin Luther King with the divisive identity and color specific politics of the oft violent ‘Black Lives Matter’. One is the antithesis of the other… and you should be deeply ashamed of attempting to draw any parallel between the two.
We judge you by the demonstrated content of your character, Simon. Shame on you….
J Mac
Meathead Mac… I agree with you. I’m no fan of BLM when things get violent. What is your issue? How does saying MLKJ changed things for the better make me a person worthy of shame. And that guy did sound like Archie B saying the guy was hanging round his daughter like a bad smell.
Trying to walk back another of your wrongheaded assertions, eh? So you’re a fan of BLM, until they get too violent for your Simple tastes? How duplicitous of you! The topic was BLM supporters. This violent terrorist movement occupied and destroyed 7 blocks of Seattle, including various assaults, arsons, 4 gunshot injuries and 2 murdered by the ‘nonviolent’ BLM you Simply support. With the support of their violent brown shirt enforcers, Antifa, they are still terrorizing Portland OR.
You attempted to conflate terrorist BLM with passivist Martin Luther King. That is your issue. We judge you by the repeatedly demonstrated repugnant content of your character, Simon.
Shame on you….
Jmac
Clearly you understood nothing of what I wrote. Oh the irony of you calling me simple. Thats made my night
Not ‘simple’ – ignorant, bigoted, and self-serving.
J Mac the Black Lives Matter movement has nothing to do with settling injustices against black people. Nothing can change the past. The issues they raise are just an excuse to provoke violence, to loot and to spread hate. Hate is the main platform of Extinction Rebellion, Antifa, Black Lives Matter and any of the many other groups who are often the same people with different hats.
When you come from a place of hate there is no way forward and it seems to me that hate is the driving force of the left. The hypocrisy is unbearable, tolerance, inclusiveness, equality, freedom of speech.
These words are only words if you don’t apply them.
An Australian aboriginal friend of mine has seen yet another of her family members beaten into a coma this weekend past, by an aboriginal. Her aunty was murdered some years ago, by an aboriginal. They violence in our black community is rife. My aboriginal friend doesn’t blame the white man, she just wants this to end, she just wants the truth to be told. She practices those words.
The educated blacks in the cities just want to blame the white man, they speak on behalf of the blacks in the outback. They reinforce their hate that has been fed by a woke leftist education system. Many of of the blacks in the outback aren’t educated, that suits the city blacks, they’re in control. Many of the outback blacks don’t speak English, that suits the city blacks too, it means that they will never know the truth.
My aboriginal friend and her mother are two of the most inspiring women I know. That have more integrity than most white people. Hate knows no colour.
Hate is spreading faster than any virus and I fear that it’s too late for a vaccine.
Their main platform is Marxism.
Anyone can go read the Marxist philosophy on Wikipedia or any of many places.
Marxists believe that History follows “evolution,” similar to species evolution.
For Marx, and BLM, Occupy Wall Street, and his other admitted acolytes, We progressed from Hunter-Gatherer society, to Feudalism, to Capitalism, improving the lot of humanity at each step. Yet, Marx and BLM, etc., declare that we still are plagued by problems, and they are inherent in the prevailing Capitalist system. And, on top of all of that, they know what the next two steps of social evolution are.
The first is Communism. We will all get “woke,” and tired of serving the controlling Cultural Hegemony. That inter-linked powerful cabal that makes us believe in Christianty, in the Protestant Work Ethic, in the Nukelar Family, and other such social-belief Tools of Oppression. When enough of us are “woke” enough, we will overthrow the Prevailing Cultural Hegemony in a Bloody Revolution.
We will all upgrade our Society Operating System to Communism 1.0 OS. Bugs will be worked out with successive revisions.
This will work so wonderfully that we will progress to the next step: elimination of government ALTOGETHER.
All of what I say FITS everything you have been seeing and hearing. And, is fully admitted and documented by the Marxists.
If you are not aware of all of this history, it is largely because the Marxists have wisely been restrained in revealing their MO, while teaching you all of this in college, etc.
To start learning: READ! Goo gle “Marxism,” “cultural hegemony,” “The Frankfurt School,” “The Original Port Huron Statement,” “The Long March Through The Institutions,” “Rules for Radicals,” then go read what has been published lately about the founders of BLM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withering_away_of_the_state
They are absolutely right! Also, they don’t understand evolution. Evolution works by performing many experiments, the vast majority of which die.
Marxism is a failed experiment and, as such, is a great example of how evolution works. ie. the Soviet Union and every other Marxist experiment has collapsed in abject failure after much bloodshed and human misery.
Karma dictates that there should be re-education camps for Marxists. (just kidding, really)
Ask him if he knows who purchased the first slave in what became america. Hint: Anthony Johnson…
There is absolutely NO correlation between what’s happening in the streets now and what MLK stood for. These people would call him an Uncle Tom.
Glen Beck does a good deal of history and he did something on the black march to freedom. I am pretty sure it will set most any Democrat/Progressive off if you can get them to sit still long enough to review the whole thing including the links. Just the thing to show that the Democrats aren’t the friends of the Black people however I suspect it will not change is mind as he already knows everything.
https://www.theblaze.com/video/timeline-surprising-historical-facts-the-democratic-party-wouldnt-want-you-to-know
Thinks the USA is called America – Tick
Wonders why people here own guns and ammo – Tick
Show him this:
Inspiring Philincaifornia!
Thanks, Phil! We need more voices like this, reaching out to all with pro-American values.
Isn’t that YouTube video brilliant! It’s uplifting to see such a positive attitude.
I have a friend, a nice chap, who is now so ‘woke’ it makes me cringe. When he and his (wealthy) partner were guests in a holiday home I’d rented, he chose to criticise my choice of reading material ( I read the Spectator) as too right-wing for his tastes. He declined my suggestion that he try reading it for a while instead of taking that on trust. Last weekend they invited us round for dinner. BLM came up and he waxed lyrical about how the ‘demonstrations’ had made him think about his white privilige and the slave trade. He even expressed sympathies for the idea of reparations. On Covid-19, he was horrified at my suggestions that the infectivity here in Scotland is now so low that we should a) not have compulsory face-masks anywhere and b) open everything up normally again.
I was being honest, he thought I was just playing devil’s advocate.
People like him seem to be ‘data poor’ . Orthodoxy and feelings over facts.
I have (almost) given up on him.
PS. There’s nothing wrong with cycling per se. I’ve being getting to work on my bike for 50 years, and now that my right hip is rotting it’s the only way I can get decent exercise without too much pain. I agree that cycling does attract some hipsters though, you spot the ‘cool’ bikes and leather shoulder bags a mile off. Ugh.
Earth’s population will soon start falling, earlier than expected:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
Anyone told Jeff Gibbs and Mike Moore?
Not to mention Paul Ehrlich who I believe is still alive.
contribution to SST anomalies
and to
global temperatures
I would like to say God Bless John Lewis. John Lewis is a long-time Democrat in the House of Representatives, who passed away overnight.
I didn’t agree with John Lewis’ Liberal politics, but I praise him for the way he acted in fighting racial injustice. He, along with Martin Luther King, espoused non-violence to bring about change, and in the end, the non-violent way was the way to success. Violence would have only harden attitudes, not changed them.
We lost a good, humane man last night.
Tom
“I didn’t agree with John Lewis’ Liberal politics, but I praise him for the way he acted in fighting racial injustice. He, along with Martin Luther King, espoused non-violence to bring about change, and in the end, the non-violent way was the way to success. Violence would have only harden attitudes, not changed them.”
Good comment……
Why, if Lewis was so concerned with non-violence, was he full of praise for Mandela when the latter died? Mandela believed that the end justified the means and that violence was justified. Mandela went behind the back of Albert Luthuli – who as president of the African National Congress was insistent on opposing violence to achieve political goals – to start an armed insurrection and was rightly considered as a terrorist by the US authorities.
From the time Mandela became president in 1994 till now over 500 000 “blacks” have been murdered in South Africa – well over 99% by their own people. This is Mandela’s legacy but did John Lewis ever called Americans to condemn this ongoing killing of black people? However, he was happy to take the Congressional Black Caucus to Mandela’s funeral. Blessed are the peacemakers but I am not sure historical reality shows that this description fits either Lewis or Mandela, nor does it support the hogwash Lewis spouted in his press release upon Mandela’s death in 2013.
Sadly, truth is the real victim in politics and the media today.
No no no. Blessed are the cheesemakers.
“Why, if Lewis was so concerned with non-violence, was he full of praise for Mandela when the latter died? Mandela believed that the end justified the means and that violence was justified.”
It’s normal to say nice things about the recent dead. It doesn’t mean Lewis agreed with the idea that violence was justified. In fact, Lewis whole life was dedicated to *non-violent” protests and acted accordingly. And his non-violent method proved to be successful.
Lewis was badly beaten during the demonstrations but that never made him turn to violence. And the American people were horrified to watch these beatings on their televisions and this led directely to the Civil Right Act shortly thereafter.
I don’t agree with hardly any of Lewis’ leftwing politics but I do agree with his non-violent stance and that’s why I praise him. Too bad the current generation doesn’t see it the way Lewis and Martin Luther King Jr. saw it. Violence only leads to more violence. That’s what Lewis and King understood.
The violent Anarchists will lose in the end.
I have an iPhone 11 and I have the intrusive “Alexa” turned off. Or so I thought.
Yesterday I was using the phone to look at Amazon’s website where I was scrolling through a list of books on the best seller list, and then I received a phone call where we discussed getting a “Ring video doorbell, and after the call ended I went back to scrolling through the book titles and when I scrolled to the next page down, right in the middle of the book listings was an advertisement for a Ring Doorbell!
I assume that even though I turned off Alexa, she is still intruding on my conversations. How else would a completely unrelated advertisement suddenly appear among the books?
I would like to put Alexa to sleep until I wake her up. Anyone know how to do this?
Threw it away, as far as possible
D
Use your old Nokia instead, it still allows for phone calls and SMS; but may not be as entertaining and Amazon will be disappointed.
I don’t know how to put Alexa to sleep but any of these things that “come on” when you speak a certain word rather than flip a switch or push a button are always listening.
If they weren’t, how could they “turn on” when they hear the right word?
I have the Apple watch and heart monitoring, paired with my iPhone11 Pro. Siri is starting to do strange things like tell me the time when the word time is spoken, or now Siri is telling me to breath, when I am actually not breathing that well. Or if my heart rate is too low or too high, she will notify me if I don’t have Do Not Disturb turned on. Good tech if it isn’t abused by someone that is recording/listening to everything we do.
I trust Apple more than Google or Microsoft, but still I wonder if I should be wrapping my iPhone in tinfoil and put it in the microwave. But then it would be useless for anything. Would be nice to see a bill of rights regarding privacy with smart phones/internet and regulating these tech giants what they can do and what they can’t. I don’t get many ads cause I run a script blocker, so they should know that and give up on me.
I remember there was a big flap about some Government facility built to record emails and phone calls and such.
If I remember correctly the courts said “No, you can’t do that”.
It’s still there. I wonder what all those data banks are being used for?
(Or maybe Hillary’s emails used up all the space? 😎
Actually, I recall that several of these ‘data’ centres were being built in the USA, several in Utah IIRC. This was some years ago now, but caused a surge in prices for RAM and CPU’s, which is why the semiconductor stocks did so well because the demand from Homeland Security and the intelligence agencies was so great.
Their purpose was to record every single bit of data that went through the dozen main USA nodes for internet traffic. Absolutely everything sent digitally is recorded, even encrypted traffic since once day it may be easier to have this data unencrypted. So it is true, which is old news, but everything possible is recorded that goes through USA backbone. Which is a lot of the planets internet traffic. China is now doing the same, with Zoom traffic and a lot of their high tech security cameras such as Hikvision, which all data/video is accessible to mainland China. This is why current apps like TikTok are starting to be banned from some institutions in the West, since it is basically a slave to China and all the data transits through China servers. Which is also why PDJT made a very smart decision to single handedly start banning new Huawei 5G cell equipment, since it has back doors to send any data back to China. Time to get the old CB radio out, if you don’t want to be tracked.
Unplug it. Plug it in when you want to use it.
And don’t dismiss the possibility of a coincidence. I see ads for Ring, frequently. When I first heard the stories of eavesdropping, I routinely said, “we need to buy some septic tank treatment. We have septic tank problems.” Must have said it a dozen times. Never saw an ad for a product, not even when logged into Amazon, nor an email for products. It would have been very obvious – we don’t have a septic tank.
You have been monitored and tracked for years now. The system knows where you live, and what municipal hookups you have. The system knows you do not have a septic tank, and the algorithm was able to determine that you were trolling it. That is why it did not respond.
Case Study:
People would “casually” mention visiting some random foreign city. Then count the ads for “Cheap Air Fares” as the flooded in. This was really giving the game away.
The system responded by checking if the target person at least has a passport before bombing them with international travel ads.
“It is not Paranoid if they really are out to get you.” — Anon.
Oh, please. I have rental houses in other states, as do many others. Why would they bother doing such cross-referencing of information to verify none of my properties have a septic tank? Anyone or algorithm listening to us would just toss an ad our way.
The main problem with your theory is the same as most all others; it would require a massive number of people to keep it secret (I am especially amused by government conspiracy theories – as if the government could keep a secret.).
You are paranoid if they have no interest in you.
iOS allows which apps can have access to your microphone to pick up your voice and sounds. Turn off microphone access for all apps, like Amazon’s app, and all your browsers like Safari, etc, and anything else that you don’t want to use the microphone.
My household Amazon Echo I only plug-in to power cord when I want to tell Alexa to play music.
I have admitted on this site that my son labeled me a techtard, sad I know. When I was online a few days ago, a pop up notification said that my camera had been activated. I believe I was researching nuclear energy at the time. Should I be concerned?
Just the CIA/NSA. They wanted to get a photo of the person researching nuclear power. No biggie. You can trust the Government…… bwahahahah.
Wish I’d called for hair and makeup!
Many times I have seen the camera icon pop up in the task bar, only to quickly disappear. Don’t worry about it as a piece of black electricians tape is the first thing I put on a new computer, and it stays in place for the duration.
I thought iPhone had Siri. Does it also have Alexa? how many imaginary women do Apple users need to talk to?
Yes, it is Siri on the iPhone. I don’t do much talking to computers, and I just upgraded from an iPhone 4gs, which doesn’t do Siri, to the iPhone 11 which does, so I got confused.
I’m reading the Siri privacy section ritght now. It seems that Apple records your data, I assume all of it, and keeps the data in a file unrelated to your Apple ID for six months, and then the data is reclassified and they can keep the data for two more years, or forever, depending on how you read their description.
Apple says you can turn off Siri by setting the “listen for Siri” button to Off, and if you also disable Dictation at the same time then Apple claims the file with your data will be deleted.
Not a word about preventing Apple from being so intrusive. That cannot be stopped apparently. No Opt Out for that.
Disconnecting its power might work unless it contains a largish battery inside.
Put it in a closed metal box
Turn off WiFi is that is its connection to the internet.
Unplug its ethernet cable if that is its connection to the internet.
Better yet, take a sledge hammer to it.
Tom Abbott
July 18, 2020 at 4:48 am
Just for fun… 🙂
You were put to sleep, till Alexa woke you up.
🙂
cheers
I was at a class, doing attendance one time and commented that someone’s name was spelt oddly, when this American voice said “That’s not a nice thing to say!” Someone had left their crApple on the desk and Alexa was trying to censor me!. This is why I’ll never buy myself a one of these products. My mind is my own.
The Black Hills are a beautiful place to get away to, especially during the Covid craziness. The locals are easy to spot as they aren’t the ones wearing masks. 6 days of soaking up Vitamin D makes a body feel good. Finding some nice agates put the cherry on top.
Having deer and turkey walk through the campground while enjoying the morning coffee is a great way to start the day. Oh well, all good things must end. Till next time, it’s been good.
Postscript: A 12 hour ride home with no A/C to +100 degree real-feel temps was like finding a dead bug at the bottom of the ice cream bowl.
Hmm, comments not preserved. The ideal setting for a little stir up.
I solved the climate riddle to my satisfaction almost two years ago. I didn’t get to it through hypothesis-driven science, the bane of scientific discovery, but I stumbled upon it through good old-fashioned evidence-driven science. The kind that Popper and Feynman defended. Go where the evidence takes you and only when you arrive at destination make your hypothesis. Hypothesis-driven science inevitably leads to a confirmation-bias trap. Climate is extremely complicated and to have a chance to understand it a good thermodynamics understanding is a must. I started laying out the clues in a series of articles here at WUWT, but I didn’t like the response. Probably not the right audience. Here people that do correlation analysis using sunspot numbers to shun a solar effect are revered as the scientific apotheosis.
People have been looking for a simple answer to the climate problem. Most think is the CO2, a few think is the Sun, others think is the clouds. The answer is not that simple, obviously, or it would have been solved long ago. Scotese has the answer right in front of him when he analyzes the equator-to-pole temperature gradients of the past.
The temperature of the Earth is determined by how much energy moves along that gradient, and the Sun is a key regulator in a way that could never be detected with sunspot number correlations. Arctic amplification is not what it seems. And natural variability is a huge confounding factor because the 60-year oscillation that affects the entire climate system essentially takes energy from the surface and returns it 30 years later. Although in the long term the oscillation is neutral, on multi-decadal timeframes it determines whether there is warming or not, regardless of what the real causes are doing.
I even wrote an article on January 2019 entitled “How the Sun cools the Earth” where the main evidence I had found was to be shown, but finally I decided not to publish it. My past experiences had shown that WUWT was no longer a place for scientific discovery. The place where people like Bill Illis or Ferdinand Engelbeen came to show and discuss what they had found. It has become a sort of tribal outlet where one tribe supporters come for reinforcement and very few commenters are genuinely interested in learning and discovery.
I’ve been trying to publish what I have found in a scientific venue since, but I have the same problem. Everybody thinks they have the answer and nobody is ready to listen. To my knowledge what I have found has not been published, not even discussed elsewhere. It is a weird feeling to think that perhaps I am right and I am the only (or one of very few) person to know why and how the climate has been changing over the past century. Something that if told would make most people think I am a loony. “Hey, Javier thinks he understands climate change and nobody else does. What a loony.” And if I tell, most people would not understand it, would not have any reason to trust what I say, and would just shrug and continue. Nobody that has a different hypothesis would abandon it and they would come to refute or find a different explanation to what I say. Only time can settle this issue, so I will just sit down and wait to find if I was really one of the first to stumble upon the answer or just a loony. I don’t really care that much if people know the truth or not. I am not an evangelizer. For me this was always about me knowing the truth, and I now think I know it.
If somebody else wants to find out they can start from my 2018 articles and continue from there. The answer lies at the end and the fun is the journey.
Javier,
Take care, there is always the Wayback Machine 😉
Spoil sport!
Javier,
I recommend that you start with Research Gate and then move to the Science Publishing Group.
Following the graph, we are in between cooling greenhouse and icehouse.
Your second premise is shattered here:
Over different time periods, locations along the energy gradient have the same sunspot threshold, because of ocean circulation.
Solar energy is absorbed at depth, not ‘heat taken down’, to be returned 30 years later.
Your complaints are just as bad.
Not here to defend my hypothesis of climate change against other people’s hypotheses. That’s unproductive. But direct solar effects is a second order factor, as is the increase in CO2. Indirect solar effects is where the real game at centennial scales is taking place, and indirect solar effects is one of the least known factors in climate. Indirect solar effects have lags of decades. You have to study paleoclimatology to see that.
Regarding the 60 year multidecadal oscillation, you are wrong to ignore it. That figure in there is from the original description of the AMO. Schlesinger & Ramankutti, 1994 in Nature, to which I have added in red the 15-year averaged rate of warming in °C/year obtained from HadCRUT 4.6
Temperature responds to the rate of warming with a 90° phase shift, as expected. And the 60-year oscillation is real on a planet scale.
That’s a wave of energy moving through the system on a multidecadal timescale that neither CO2 nor the Sun can explain. It is the result of the atmospheric and oceanic delays in the transfer of energy within the climate system. It cools the planet on the lows and warms the planet on the highs without changing the total long-term energy input/output.
Javier,
There are still many here who come for the science, though you are right that the tone has changed. I, for one, greatly appreciate your contributions and eagerly await your next article. Don’t let the animus get you down. Keep fighting the good fight. You seem fearless to me.
Direct solar effects is a second order factor? How can that be?
Javier said And the 60-year oscillation is real on a planet scale.
I did reply earlier but it wasn’t posted. Your alleged 60 yr velocity of warming cycle (for the AMO) has a shorter time from the first peak to the trough than from the trough to the second peak, indicating it’s not periodic at 60yr. There aren’t 60 yr cycles on a planet-scale because each basin has a different volume and proximity to the poles and equator and receives/dissipates energy at different timescales.
So there’s no 60-yr cycle to ignore, unless you’ll be back to try and show another one.
The energy moving through the system is included in my work, not neglected, and is accounted for by prior solar activity, as I have connected direct solar activity to what you are calling indirect solar effects, which I call lagged accumulation effects from the influence of solar activity on the tropics over time. Indirect effects as you describe them seem to be sets of independent forces that are not dependent on the tropics or sun. Cyclemania anyone?
The direct solar effect on the tropics is first order with ocean cycles ie your indirect effects follow, ie lagging the tropics. You have those two backwards, but you’re right that the energy transfers cool the planet, a premise of mine also.
Ocean cycles are not independent forcings. Very small daily TSI changes through solar cycles make the changes in ocean basin OHC that accumulate in time, so TSI is primary over the long-term effects TSI causes, your indirect effects.
Direct solar effects ie TSI rules the indirect effects, the ocean cycles. The OHC is a function of long-term solar activity, an accumulator. I originally called my model the ‘solar supersensitivity accumulation model’ for these principles.
The oceans don’t lead the sun so they are second-order effects. Any deviation is nonsense.
The same argument holds against CO2, also a second-order effect wrt to the ocean and sun.
Interestingly, fragrances show the 60 year oscillation.
https://imgur.com/a/TW1U3lN
Bob
Javier has a point about the sun-worshipers. They are just as bad as the CO2 control knobbers, in two respects:
(1) they consider the climate essentially passive, only moved by outside forcing. This is an egregious mistake, with it you’ve failed before you even start. The planet has a layer of water about a billion cubic km, a liquid with an anomalously high heat capacity, which is in constant 4 dimensional movement. This dominates climate, and has its internal independent dynamic. Outside forcing only acts via the ocean, and resonances thereof.
In this respect Javier made probably the single most important discovery in climate science since Agassis discovered ice ages, Milankovitch the orbital glacial forcing and Wegener continental drift. Javier showed that all post-MPR interglacials correlate exactly with obliquity peaks lagged by 6,500 years to allow for ocean thermal inertia. This showed with unambiguous clarity that Milankovitch solar forcing works via the ocean. It is a disgrace that this finding going to the core of how climate is “forced” has been ignored by a community of scientists all blinkered by their own private climate dogmas. The same research community resisted for decades the acceptance of all the aforementioned discoveries – ice ages by Agassis, orbital entrainment of the glacial cycle by Milankovitch and most pitifully of all, the tectonic movement of continents by Wegener. (I would add Belousov to that list.)
(2) CO2 believers and the sun-worshippers have raised the eel-slippery evasion of experimental falsification of their pet hypotheses to an exquisite art form. To their credit the solar peleton at least engage in debate about the evidence, but for example all of Willis’ repeated evidence/data based falsifications of claims of metronomic astrophysicical forcing – he goes to the data and finds no correlation – are all rebuffed with the same excuse – “you’re not doing it right”. If you take the square of the reciprocal and divide by cube of the the sign of the zodiac then take away the number you first thought of – hey presto! There’s our astrophysical forcing, correlation meaning causation and the direction of the arrow of causality can be overlooked by careful sleight of hand. The CO2 crowd on the other hand have denied the very basis of rational science and reject Popper and any need for their “science” to be falsifiable. They deny falsifiability and they deny the null hypothesis.
The sad fact is that we hominids are just crap at science, especially in politicised areas like climate and nuclear energy. They can’t disentangle the search for truth from all the agendas that they are invested in. Even when truth stares them in the face, they won’t accept it until they’re exhausted all the alternatives.
The climate is forced by solar activity and has been since the early Holocene. Milankovitch cycles didn’t cause the Little Ice Age, nor the warming since then, the sun did. Milankovitch cycles didn’t cause the great climate shift of 1976, solar activity did. What is more useful year-to-year, the true knowledge of solar cycle influences or the Milankovitch cycles? What is more important today?
I am not a sun worshiper, and no, Willis didn’t do it right wrt to sun-climate, as he didn’t account for aggregate effects, starting with the relationship of TSI to SN, and of SST to TSI, where there are two lags of about a year total, nor the effect of whole solar cycles so no wonder things didn’t work out among other things.
This I agree with
Even when truth stares them in the face, they won’t accept it until they’re exhausted all the alternatives.
…as I’ve experienced it since 2014 while communicating all-natural solar climate change.
So Bob, why don’t you show us how to do it right. With code and data. You would even make a believer out of Willis.
Fraizer, Willis’ work coincides with mine at a very important place, the tropics, where his evaporation curve conforms to the bottom two plots here wrt temperature:
I’m working toward making blog presentations of my several works but I’m up against several deadlines including AGU abstract(s) and home construction projects.
Look forward to reading it Bob. I think Willis is on to something with his emergent phenomena postulate.
WRT to your post and Henry’s law, oceanic turnover is ~800 years. So back and that puts us squarely in the little ice age where oceans would have been sinking CO2. Something to consider.
There are clearly climate cycles on multiple time scales, not always in phase with each other so sometimes acting constructively and sometimes destructively. There is also a true chaotic component of the climate that can oscillate of it’s own volition.
What the the climate is not is simple, linear and dominated by a single forcing agent. All-in-all, it is pretty amazing how stable the climate is.
“Even when truth stares them in the face, they won’t accept it until they’re exhausted all the alternatives.”
As a general statement about dogmatists of whatever stamp I’d say that’s a bit optimistic. Of course it’s very rare for a dogmatist to catch a whiff of their own dogmatism . . .
Bob
Milankovitch is the starting point. At least with them the time signature of eccentricity, precession and obliquity (and all 3 in combination) is clear. So we know that astrophysical forcing can and does move the climate. That’s a start.
Milankovitch forcing explains the long term, low frequency variation (glacial-interglacial) But if you look at the climate record during the Pleistocene there is a lot of faster, higher frequency variation also. This is where attribution is not so straightforward. For it to be solar requires quite a bit of shoe-horning. Intrinsic ocean circulation changes are also a possible explanation.
As I’ve said many times it’s not an either-or question between solar and intrinsic oceanic driving of “short term” (shorter than Milankovitch) climate change. It can be both-and. Experimental chaotic systems include the “periodically forced nonlinear oscillator”. A regular external periodic forcing interacts with an excitable oscillatory system and influences its oscillation behaviour. The resulting system oscillation can either be a strong forcing if it simply mimics the external forcing (like the tides for instance) or it can be weak, in which case the system oscillation resulting from the interaction between the external forcing and the internal dynamics can be complex, such that it can be hard to recognise as being linked to the external periodic forcing. But it is casually linked. However how to prove and demonstrate this is a difficult challenge. Probably new analytical methods are required for this.
Of course, the climate establishment approach to higher frequency climate variation, over the Holocene for instance, is different. They iron it flat by abusing the palaeo record and pretend that it does not exist.
All I’m “asking” is that those who recognise a solar forcing role in climate, are willing to accept interaction between solar (and other astrophysical) forcing and powerful internal dynamics of the ocean. According to the model something like a periodically forced nonlinear oscillator. Rather than attempting to explain every smallest wiggle of the climate record by shorter term astrophysical influences. This is the road toward requiring ocean-driven climate to be passive. Which it is not. The churning chaotic-nonlinear ocean internal dynamics are the force-multiplier that converts a weak solar variation into an energetic response in the earth’s climate that is on a scale that only the ocean can provide.
Hard to argue with that approach, Phil.
A 60 year oscillator has been suggested as affecting Generational Theory, Kondratieff waves, etc.
I wish Javier would feel confident enough to publish here and hopefully receive constructive criticism.
It’s scientifically incorrect, but we have to get close to a perfect explanation in order to fell the discredited knobber religion and every little helps.
All I’m “asking” is that those who recognise a solar forcing role in climate, are willing to accept interaction between solar (and other astrophysical) forcing and powerful internal dynamics of the ocean.
Phil if you understood my work you will realize it is all about that very thing:
It does not mean the temperature tracks sunspot number or TSI perfectly. The tropics follow sunspot activity with a 13-year lag using 30-year averages:
Real indirect solar effects are CO2 outgassing, the growth of coral reef bases, and food/forest growth due to long-term higher solar activity and precipitation and CO2.
The Solar to Tropics to Polar Ice, equator to poles is characterized by lags too:
Bob,
I can’t find you on Google Scholar or Research Gate.
Link please.
Phil if you understood my work you will realize it is all about that very thing
I suspected that might be the case.
With more time I would be happy to check out your work further – please keep posting at the migrated WUWT.
Thank you for your interest:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338956230_Extreme_Weather_Events_and_Climate_Extremes_are_Limited_by_the_Duration_of_Solar_Cycle_Irradiance_Extremes
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338955999_CO2_Naturally_Follows_Solar-Driven_Climate_Change
I’ve done more research over the last year and have more material to add now, and am doing more all the time to support it. I’m not on Google Scholar as I’m not an academic or PhD. Breaking it down into blog bites and writing a paper is the big challenge. All in all, I could have been much more aggressive about promoting it but taking the extra time has helped to develop things into an even higher state.
Since we only have 1 Earth climate to study that has any fidelity with the real thing (since it is), there are no true experiments that can be done, because true experiments incorporate control experimental conditions.
Thus your assertion that you follow the evidence is meaningless. Everyone picks and chooses what evidence to form conclusions from. Even the “best” climate scientists, pick and choose.
Examples:
– Use the highly adjusted temp records or the unadjusted station temp records?
– Use satellite temp records or surface temp records of longer duration?
– Which time frame to limit the analysis, using past “poor” recording methods as justification for whatever time frame to pick from.
– Which paleo-recons/proxies of temp or CO2 or solar activity to use and which ones to toss out?
The only true test of a scientific paradigm/hypothesis is to make predictions of things not ahppened. And then see if it works.
Of course, that evidence-based approach is what allowed the Ptolemaic Earth-centric universe paradigm with it predictions using epicycles and deferents to persist as long as it did. It worked until the telescope came along to throw a monkey wrench into it with Jupiter’s moons. Ptolemy even mathematically came up with the planetary orbit diameters using Earth radii. The system worked reasonably well enough in the 20th Century to use it make working planetarium projectors to produce realistic (to the naked eye)sky object movement projections on curved ceilings. Ptolemy’s epicycle theory was constantly evolving to try to match ever more accurate recordings of the prograde and retrograde motions of planets. That is exactly like the IPCC CMIP process adherents and their modellers do today, with their constantly tweaking and refining of details of an underlying invalid model paradigm.
At some point the same will happen to the CO2 climate control knob theory. It is just going to take time for the knobbers’ faith-based beliefs in CO2 to be negated by enough observations, for all they have now is a tenuous correlation of rising temps and rising CO2 … as long as the details are ignored.
As Einstein said, it would only take one observation to prove him wrong (on Relativity). Climate Science has lots of observations to show the CO2 control knob theory is wrong, the mainstream climateers just choose to ignore them.
What I see is a likely way out of all this mess in both Lindzen’s Iris Hypothesis tied his earlier work on Equatorial Wave modes reacting to geomagnetic activity. In a general terms, geomagnetic activity does follows the solar magnetic cycle, but not precisely, and the exception (like Jupiter moons) are pivotal in being able to cast aside unworkable paradigms.
These exceptions appear because geomagnetic activity, effects that reach all the way down to the stratosphere and to the troposphere interface, can spike BIGLY even during solar minimum conditions due to coronal holes, as they do now at this solar minimum on occasion. And those stratospheric effects and tied the QBO that geomagnetic activity can drive changes in the “wave number” which induces changes in zonal to meridional back to zonal flow regimes and its interactions with the MJO that alters the balance of heat flows toward the poles.
Anyhows, that’s my take. CO2 control theory is long dead, the exceptions are too many. It’s just the vested (reputation) scientists that now keep it alive for their paychecks.
If Lindzen sees geomagnetism as a player then I might be willing to accept that possibility if the data led there.
Javelin
Your comment falls apart like a cheap suitcase
, in the third paragraph.
You talk of a climate “problem”.
There is no climate problem.
The climate has been getting more pleasant for over 300.
If you can contribute to a better understanding of climate change physics, that’s great.
The actual climate, however, is wonderful.
Some people claim a climate crisis is coming, with the hysteria ramping up since the 1970s — people making that very questionable evidence-free claim ARE the problem, not the clinate
The US reported COVID-19 deaths began increasing 18 days after the FDA revoked the Emergency Use Authorization (my graph below). I can’t see a correlation w/ phased state reopenings or street protests. Any other suggestions as to cause/effect??
You should look at the “hotspots” individually, then perhaps protests look more causal, e.g. around Houston; people spending more time indoors in Southern states in AC; opening of bars and nightclubs; harvesting of certain crops and COVID infection among migrant farm workers.
To me, the uptick appears to be caused by an event, not gradual reopenings which are staggered from place to place. (PS -I spent time in Houston in the ’70s when it was much less crowded – Rice U.)
Updated COVID-19 graph with data through 7/20 (moving average through 7/17) suggests over 3000 excess COVID-19 deaths in two weeks as a result of the FDA’s revocation of HCQ EUA. Dr. Harvey Risch (epidemiology prof at Yale) estimates 75,000 to 100,000 excess US deaths due to FDA’s revocation of HCQ EUA. Please share far and wide.
https://youtu.be/15Xi6hgHlUo
Deaths lag day of infection by as much as 30 days or more depending. Most people dying of CV now were infected in June.
Average (or mean??) is reported as 18.5 days from first sign of symptoms until death.
7/20/20 Update on HQC revocation deaths:
Dr. Harvey Risch (epidemiology prof at Yale) estimates 75,000 to 100,000 excess US deaths due to FDA revocation of HCQ EUA. I estimate over 3,000 excess deaths in first two weeks since uptick began (July 4 – 17th).
US combat deaths for comparison:
2,335 – Pearl Harbor
33,686 – Korea ’50-’53
47,424 – Vietnam ’55-’75
It is plausible that deaths due to FDA revocation of the HCQ EUA could result in the deaths of more US residents than were killed in combat during the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined in a fraction of the time. . . . and no media fanfare . . .
Please share this analysis (graph above and applicable references) with your State Medical Licensing Boards, who are targeting some doctors for using HQC according to Dr. Risch. The front-line Drs know whats up on this.
Farmer Ch E retired – at 5:56 am
Looks like that’s one way to get an image posted here. Maybe when WUWT goes back to WordPress we will once again be able to post images – one can hope.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/07/15/media-should-do-a-mea-culpa-as-french-analysis-offers-a-stunning-observation-about-hydroxychloroquine-use-n643181
Virol J. 2005; 2: 69.
Published online 2005 Aug 22. doi: 10.1186/1743-422X-2-69
PMCID: PMC1232869
PMID: 16115318
Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread
Martin J Vincent,1 Eric Bergeron,2 Suzanne Benjannet,2 Bobbie R Erickson,1 Pierre E Rollin,1 Thomas G Ksiazek,1 Nabil G Seidah,2 and Stuart T Nicholcorresponding author
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
MSM and a lot of politicians have bloody hands.
But it’s fine to have proven the efficiency of HCQ,AZ and Zn, even if there will still be unbelievers.
The uptick in covid cases could be a natural response to the high heat index of late caused by strong sunshine during periods of high UV index:
CDC Projected 2020 US Heat Extremes and Military heat illnesses/deaths 2014-2018:
If soldiers have problems with heat then imagine how it impacts the elderly. Here is No. Michigan the UVI rarely reaches 8-10, and when it does some here have issues. Many can’t handle the afternoon sun near the solstice. Regular UVI of 10-12 like in the south would be very stressful on a body producing many symptoms
similar to covid/flu/asthma sufferers have, especially for people who’ve been locked down for months then suddenly going outside since May, so it could be a source of covid mis-attribition.
I understand the half-life of the virus is on the order of minutes in the sun. I’ve been-there-done-that in the sun. I wore water-proof Tyvek and knee boots at a superfund site in central MS during a 2-week pilot test during one of the warmest June’s on record in the early ‘90s. Lots of water and gator aid. My body was much younger then. We adjusted the work schedule with a break during the middle of the day. You know it’s hot when you pour sweat out of your boots.
The virus may not be involved in many cases – agreeing with the reason you gave.
I’ve been-there-done-that in the sun. Those were days of very high solar activity back in June 1991, adding more stress. Arkansas/Oklahoma was humid and wickedly hot then, but from the sound of it, that was ‘no sweat’ compared to your experience.
There are times when many thousands die from a heatwave so perhaps this year is no different except “on paper” in medical records – who can know for sure?
I also wonder if they are taking advantage of the growth in natural deaths occurring just due to demographics by calling some of them COVID-19.
A small minority of doctors think a distressed body produces natural exosomes that trigger false-positive COVID tests in enough people to call into question COVID-19 test efficacy.
All in all the reporting has made me very skeptical… too many people now have something to gain from it.
I think our pilot test was ’91. A June to remember . . .
I’ve been seeing stories about significant flooding in China with a dam (dams?) breaking, flooding villages. Perhaps a potential threat to the Three Gorges Dam? Not a lot of info on the MSN, but it’s early and I’ve been avoiding TV news a lot lately.
Oops, I meant MSM: main stream media.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/China-warns-of-stronger-flood-as-Three-Gorges-Dam-faces-swell
There is some dramatic video within the following.
https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk
There’s alot of suffering in China right now for many different reasons. I hope at least the army will be put to good use to come to the aid of those devastated by the floods. Sad scenes.
To Scissor
Yes your site show dramatic events in China.
Yet, nothing about this on MSM here.
This will get worse.
Satellite photos show sections of the dam are moving horizontally. Apparently it’s not anchored to bedrock.
No. Those wavy Three Gorges Dam images is just Google image processing to try to merge multi-images to on Earth view. Simply computer image processing algorithm artifacts.
Google Maps frequently does that “squiggle thing” to many big airport runways too. And those airport runways last time I checked from airport diagrams are straight as an arrow.
Last month’s news. Three Gorges Dam is fine… for now. Check back in 50 years and it probably be failing or failed by then though.
Something I’ve been wondering about since the Wuhan virus pandemic appeared is why do all these politicians use a sign-language person? Is this just virtue signalling?
In this modern age, why wouldn’t they be scrolling their entire speech across the bottom of the screen in place of a person doing sign language? I’m not expert in sign language, but I doubt it can convey all the nuances of the written language, or what the politician is saying, and if you can see sign language then you can read words scrolling across the screen.
So are the politicians virtue signalling their inclusiveness, or are they just behind the times technolgy-wise?
It’s for deaf and dump people and is in general used on TV news in a lot of countries.
Beats me. In the UK we have fully digital transmissions and subtitles in many languages are possible and not uncommon, but we still have gesticulating gurning gargoyles pinned to a corner of the screen, making programs unwatchable for normal people//
Plus, if you start to go deaf, you rapidly learn to lip-read. You find yourself inadvertently lip-reading couples on the dance floor, where it is considered polite to watch and admire other people’s dancing. Some of the the things that are said! I wouldn’t dare, I prefer the polite oblique approach.
“but we still have gesticulating gurning gargoyles pinned to a corner of the screen, making programs unwatchable for normal people//”
Gov’t employees.
“but we still have gesticulating gurning gargoyles pinned to a corner of the screen, making programs unwatchable for normal people”
It really is distracting, and unnecessary.
I wondered the same thing and concluded it was for anyone in the audience who had a hearing disability. Otherwise, there would be lawsuits demanding signing be included on everything shown on TV or in the theatres.
Now here’s my question: if the audience claps, those who cannot hear can SEE people clapping, cheering, or whatever. They can easily understand what’s happening. But if ‘jazz hands’ replaces clapping, doesn’t that discriminate against those who are blind? They would have no clue what the silence meant.
There is a military report (or rather from a Priest) during the Indian Wars in N.America. They concluded Indian sign language was 7 times faster at conveying messages than speech. An experienced scout could see that while talking around the campfire, hand signs on the the shin were telling a much more important story.
A lot of modern sign language has a base in Indian tradition. And there is much more to that story.
There is even a Smithsonian painting with some of this.
It is an ancient communication method. It seems to me the bandwidth of TV signs is either lowered to the speaker’s rate, or they could not handle Indian signs.
Imagine, I have not yet tried, Chinese signs! Yet it must in fact be the easiest as more kids learn it every day than any other signs or signaling.
That is really funny!
Two days ago for the first time, we wore masks to run errands. Walmart doesn’t yet require them, but will as of Monday, so we figured, might as well. The mask not sees have won, which is rather disappointing to say the least, in the “Land of the Free, and Home of the Brave.” “It’s science”, goes the familiar, hysteria-based argument. Of course it is. Just like “manmade climate” is science.
Except that it is anything but science.
A store in town gave my wife a couple of the basic, rectangular throw-away ones. The kind you buy by the gross, wear them once, and toss out the car window because hey, you don’t want those germ-laden things. We’ll be keeping ours though, for a while, at least. They are just for show anyway, so why not?
So anyway, we wore them into Walmart, Staples, and even more absurdly, our recycling center, which is basically like an airplane hangar – about as close to being outside as you can get, only protected from the elements. I guess the rationale there is that it is unavoidable that you are going to have people crossing paths (eek!) momentarily.
Our governor (bless his heart) has opted not to mandate mask-wearing, because he knows 1) that there would be a backlish, and 2) he also knows that, with the mindless, hysteria-driven mask-wearing tide turning now in favor of mask-wearing, he doesn’t have to. Win-win. There was one stupidity he took part in though, and that was the banning of reuseable bags. Because of the “germs”, you see, not because of a built-in prejudice against them. Nope.
Aside from nothing but anecdotal evidence that “masks work”, is the very real possibility that they have a net-negative result, for various reasons. Try telling that to a mask-believer though, and they will employ every irrational, illogical argument in the book, likely at high volume, because they “know” they are right, and you are wrong, plus you probably are just a low-life, ignorant Trump supporter. Well, how can you argue against that “logic”?
So what does one do? I’ll tell you what NOT to do, and that is to go into an establishment which requires masks, and create a scene, or even a fight. Nor do you get in a big room with like-minded folks elbow-to-elbow to protest mask mandates, because that is simply moronic, and asking to come down with Covid19.
In a very bizarre way, the battle lines about mask-wearing appear to be drawn, once again, mostly between Republicans (true ones) and Democrats. Now, where have we seen this before? Oh right, “climate change”! Even though the arguments actually have very little to do with where you stand politically. First off, I am not actually a Republican, though I’ve been voting mostly that way for over a decade. I am still registered as a Democrat, but only because of laziness. Secondly, if I thought for a minute that mask-wearing by the public actually helped, I would gladly wear a mask, and indeed would have long before now.
What to do, I believe, is to boost one’s immunity, with vitamins D and C, plus zinc if possible, and essentially try to be as healthy as possible, with moderate exercise and a good diet. Now, no diet is going to be perfect, but that simply means, watch sugar intake, and try to avoid junk foods. I’d watch the amount of meat, particularly red meat (which we don’t eat), but people are going to make their own choices. Just be aware that those choices can have consequences.
With luck, there will be a vaccine out in January, and things can start getting back to “normal.” The mask-Believers will probably continue wearing their masks, as symbols of a new-found quasi-religion, but most will stick them away somewhere, gathering dust until “next time”.
End/rant
Here is a hypothetical question for you to answer with regard to “wearing masks.” Let us suppose for a minute that you had to undergo open heart surgery. Is it OK with you if the surgeon that is gong to perform the operation on you doesn’t wear a mask?
And boom, there is one of the mask not sees fave tactics of conflating masks for healthcare workers, which is a totally different situation, with mask-wearing for the public. So typical, and predictable.
Wrong Bruce. I’m over 65, have diabetes and don’t know if you or any one else I come into contact with is infected. I wear a mask, and want all the asymptotic infected folks to wear them so that they won’t infect me when they are out and about.
..
There is no difference between health care workers and the public. Both of them can infect me.
Wrong Kent. The two situations are completely different. And if you can’t see that, then either your blindness is a deliberate one based on your mask ideology, or you have simply been brainwashed and are an idiot. So which one is it?
Interesting how those with no MD, Hippocratic Oath, are so quick to Repeat the 1938 Aktion T4 “useless eaters” law, right now in the USA!
Do you know how many GI’s and Russians had to take action?
They have a mustache with a smile, those “pragmatists” like Navarro, Pompeo, the Grin. Ez-kill Emmanuel, Obama’s “health-care” czar was stopped.
The must never ever get away with that again!
Sorry to have to break it to you Bruce, but the situations are identical. The surgeon’s mask prevents him from infecting the patient with the virus/bacteria he breaths out. Same is the case for someone wearing a mask in public. The mask I wear protects others, and the mask others wear protect me.
…
Ever wonder why we teach kids to cover their mouth/nose when they cough or sneeze?
Based on your response, I assume that you prefer that the surgeon operating on you to wear a mask. Just in case he sneezes during the operation, you wouldn’t want any of his snot getting inside your open chest. No difference between that an an infected COVID-19 patient sneezing in your face.
Kent, the masks medical people use were DESIGNED for indoor use, it was never designed for outdoor use in walking and running around.
The China Virus average size is about .125 microns, while the N95 mask was rated to .30 microns.
Think about it.
@Sunsettommy
While the virus size is .125 microns, when airborne it is always attached to other particles, like dust, droplets, etc which are much larger than .30 microns.
I don’t know about the cloth masks, there is no standard for them. They have been compared to a cyclone fence in a sandstorm.
It requires a great deal of unwarranted trust to say that they ONLY be worn if you are ill…
How big are the snot dropplets you emit when you cough, sneeze or speak?
@ Kent Clizbe
July 18, 2020 at 11:46 am
Aerosols range from 2 to 100 microns. So the N95 surgical masks (they are different – mostly no exhaust portal) are more than adequate if properly fitted.
Anything less than 100 microns evaporates before it hits the floor so it is possible to get infected from the airborne route.
See https://first10em.com/aerosols-droplets-and-airborne-spread/
So would you like that surgeon to wear the same mask to the store after surgery? Of course not. So why is it OK for people to wear the same mask over and over into every place they go? Cross contamination is a real problem. People wearing dirty, infected masks, touching everything then their mask then everything else. Masks are to be worn in one location they discarded and hands washed before putting on a new one.
Please read this link regarding levels of protection for masks. Those in the dental field (my wife is one but not a Dentist) have the greatest daily exposure for fluids and aerosols. It is the Level 3 mask that gives the wearer the most protection. Wearing them properly is a must.
https://www.todaysrdh.com/astm-mask-levels-what-should-dental-hygienists-wear/
I would prefer the surgeon to wear the same mask rather than wearing nothing at all.
Really? A surgeon who has just comes from surgery will not have COVID. He wouldn’t be doing surgery if he did. His mask will have the patients body fluids on it which may be infected. Is the fear so great now we’ve thrown common sense out the window?
A surgeon who has just comes from surgery will not have COVID.
..
You don’t know that, unless he was tested just prior to entering the surgical theater.
..
The mask is a two way street. It blocks the patient infecting the doctor, and it blocks the doctor from infecting the patient. You should see the critters that inhabit the biome of one’s mouth.
Kent:
“You don’t know that, unless he was tested just prior to entering the surgical theater.”
This is the kind of fear that throws common sense out the window. Do you think there are no daily protocols for doctors and other healthcare workers that see patients daily?
Do you think that these people are not aware of what they are doing?
Since testing is only good for that day, are you suggesting that everyone should be tested daily?
This is what I mean when I say that fear is making people crazy.
Tom
I re-use masks. From what I have read, the virus will only survive on surfaces for a couple days and I don’t need one more than two or three times a week. I keep three masks in my car and rotate between them sequentially. However, I’m reasonably certain that leaving my car in the sun for a short while disinfects the masks much more quickly because of the heat.
I’m a little surprised at the resistance to using masks even if they are not 100% effective (What is?). The objective is to reduce the exposure to viri, not necessarily eliminate entirely. They are inexpensive, not all that uncomfortable, and don’t cause me any breathing problems. I’d require a much higher standard of proof of efficacy if any of the possible objections rose to a level of being unaffordable, very uncomfortable, or affected my breathing. But, none of those are the case. Many people seem to be “making a mountain out of a mole hill” based on some kind of ideological principle. It is really no different than the other social niceties that we regularly engage in such as smiling, greeting people, asking how their kids are (when you don’t really care), or falsely complimenting them on how good they are looking.
I do not have resistance to mask wearing, my concern is the lack of education that the general public has about mask use. Most people have no idea how to wear a mask properly, how to take care of the mask in between use, or any other procedures to make masks more effective. People are constantly touching their masks then touching everything else without cleaning their hands spread any germs on the mask to everything else they touch. People are wearing the mask under their nose because it is more comfortable. Peopleare thinking the mask means they are safe and then stop doing all the other things necessary.
I was lucky enough to get a supply of Level 3 surgical masks which I use going into public places and when facing customers at the appliance shop I work at. They fit almost air tight, as you can see the mask moving in and out with my breathing and my glasses do not fog up.
I am comfortable with that level of mask but still use hand sanitizer before I touch the mask putting it on or taking it off. Then use the sanitizer again after touching the mask.
It would be much better if all masks were Level 3, so why haven’t these mask producing companies made them that way? Oh because those cost more to make and most people are to uninformed don’t know the difference.
Tom
You said, “… most people are to uninformed …”
You could say that about almost everything, not just masks.
“I re-use masks. From what I have read, the virus will only survive on surfaces for a couple days and I don’t need one more than two or three times a week. I keep three masks in my car and rotate between them sequentially. However, I’m reasonably certain that leaving my car in the sun for a short while disinfects the masks much more quickly because of the heat.”
A little common sense like that will go a long ways towards controlling this Wuhan virus.
There is so much misinformation from both sides on this mask issue, that it is difficult to tell what is true or not true, but it seems if you want to err on the side of caution, you should wear a mask.
I bought a box of N95 masks a few years ago to use when I mow the lawn (about a football fields worth). I found another good use for them: I learned that when I have worked long enough that the mask is saturated with sweat to the point that I can’t draw a breath through it, is the signal to stop working.
Where this is valuable is when we have high temperatures and high humidity, like today with the heat index hovering around 105, the mask will plug up in about 30 minutes like it did yesterday, and that told me it was time to quit.
The difference is, in high tempertures and low humidity, I could work for over an hour straight before the mask would plug up, whereas with the high humidity, the mask plugs up at 30 minutes. And the mask is telling you the truth: You have expended as much energy in 30 minutes under high humidity and you expended for over an hour at low humdity.
So I let the mask tell me when to quit. This is important because people can easily overdue it under high-humidity conditions. If I had taken the soaked mask off and replaced it with a fresh one and continued working I might have pushed myself a little too far. It’s easy to do in high humidity and high heat.
I wonder how long it will be before I can buy another box of N95 masks for a reasonable price. I’m running a little low.
The political divide is not on whether to wear a mask or not; it’s whether government has the authority to mandate it. Republicans want to make their own decisions, not be forced by government. You will find a higher percentage of mask-wearers at a Trump rally where there is no mandate, than in Democratic cities with government mandates. Perhaps Republicans are more likely to do the right thing on their own than Democrats. At least that seems to be the attitude of the leadership involved.
The government has the authority to require me to cover my genitals in public, my face is just a different part of my body.
Based on a religious ideology.
The “basis”” is not at issue, it’s whether or not the government has the “authority.” Since we already have laws dictating attire, the case is settled.
What religious ideology allows a male to expose his genitals in public?
Based on hygiene.
If any governmental body in the US required everyone to be covered up from head to toe, you would quickly find out there is a limit on how far government can dictate clothing. Freedom of expression comes into this, and the government would need to show overwhelming reason why it should exercise more power than it currently has.
The only argument it could offer would be that it is in the best interest of public health to wear a mask, but I don’t know if there is much hard science to unreservedly back that claim. And some governments would need to justify why they make exceptions for some gatherings but not others.
Nothing related to law is cut and dried.
Power doesn’t admit to limits unless there is a balancing power.
There are still a few societies where nudity is the norm and some places where it is a choice. Enforcement of no choice is based on religious beliefs based mainly on ownership of people. Anything else is later add-on justification.
In some societies it is against the law for a woman to expose even her face. There are justifications, accepted by many, probably a majority, but to a less brain washed society they are all total nonsense. The real issue is power, control by the rule givers, expression of ownership. The differences between restrictions there and restrictions here are not intrinsic, they are only a matter of degree.
A mask for specialized health reasons is different. A mask is more likely to protect other from you, to some degree, if you are infected, than to protect you from others who are infected. However, as masks are different, and how they are used is different, that protection is limited and may be ‘not very much’ — Proof of concept seems to be lacking.
Knowing when to wear a mask is based partly on knowledge and also common sense. If you are over 60 then you do need to be more cautious, especially if not in the best of health.
Outside in uncrowded open space is a no brainer, I always get a good laugh whenever I see masks on bike riders, joggers or several people talking on a sidewalk. Inside a small store with a few other unknown customers, then yes I would wear one (I am over 70), however in a large box store, not unless I had to.
Would never argue with an employee over wearing a mask, they don’t understand the difference between a policy and a law. A guy ended up dead in Ontario because the store called the cops on him when he got upset about having to wear a mask. The cops had his license number, followed him home, a confrontation ensued and he was shot. If they had just let him buy his stuff and leave nothing would have happened. There is something wrong with this picture…
Yirgach
Ummm it’s not just about you. The person wearing the mask is protecting him/herself and you…. Every person who gets the virus is a potential spreader.
Only if you are symptomatic, if you are asymptomatic you are not infectious.
So yeah, If I had a cough or fever would wear a mask. Did not say other wise now did I?
Presymptomaic (which is a case of being asymptomatic) individuals can spread COVID-19.
Masks without complete eye shields are ineffective to prevent transmission of this Corona virus. Particles land on eyes. Then tears are washed through to the nasal passages. Allergens and viruses, no difference. They get in via eyes as easily as breathed air submicron particles. Smoke is mostly sub-micron particles, and we know that gets in eyes. Airborne virus laden particles…same.
Joel, you have missed the point. Wearing a mask is not about preventing you from being infected, it’s to prevent you from infecting others. It’s the same reason we teach children to cover their nose/mouths when they cough or sneeze. The surgeon in the operating room is not wearing a mask to prevent being infected by his patient, it’s to prevent the surgeon from infecting the patient.
No I didn’t. If that was the case, I’d have to wear a mask my whole life to placate others worrying over this cold virus.
Unless you can establish I’m infected, your demand for me to wear a mask violates my rights.
“Unless you can establish I’m infected, your demand for me to wear a mask violates my rights.”
Huh? My right to health over rides your “rights.”
1) You could be infected an not even know it.
2) It is not my responsibility to establish your state of infection.
3) We are in a pandemic, your “rights” are not the issue, what is the issue is your responsibility to do your part to stop the spread. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.
If you are over 60 or have co-morbitidies then it is your responsibility to lay low or if you need to get out, then Moncktonize yourself. The rest of the population can carry on as normal, no need for masks or lockdowns.
Moncktonize yourself?
If masks worked, the spread of COVID would have stopped by now.
Tom
You claimed, “If masks worked, the spread of COVID would have stopped by now.” I don’t think that you have thought this through. For your statement to be accepted as true, you would need evidence that people wearing masks were getting COVID-19 as frequently as those who don’t, which I’m certain isn’t available. Alternatively, you would need evidence that COVID-19 infections would be just as prevalent with or without the use of masks, which also is not available. Masks were never intended to stop the spread of the disease. They were intended to be used in conjunction with social distancing to slow the spread and thereby “flatten the curve.” It has been accepted generally that any hope of stopping the disease is dependent on having an effective vaccine that isn’t opposed by ‘anti-vaxers.’ Even then, it may not be eradicated, just reduced to a socially tolerable level.
Even if masks provided perfect protection for the users, which no reasonable person expects, it would not stop the spread of COVID-19 because the compliance is low even in food stores, and less so in environments where people gather specifically for socializing.
Would masks have helped the FDA continue the HCQ Emergency Use Authorization? I think the FDA may have unintentionally demonstrated the effectiveness of HCQ by revoking the EUA 18 days prior to the upward inflection of COVID-19 deaths in the US.
Good Lord, Moncktonize yourself!
Hilarious.
You would need a Ducati.
Do you think there could be good business in selling Monktonization as a concept?
Or just the prepackaged kits? Monograms could add value.
Really not being snarky here and I would think he understands the humor…
It’s no longer land of the free and home of the brave. Now, it’s land of the regulated and home of the paranoid.
Martin557
“It’s no longer land of the free and home of the brave. Now, it’s land of the regulated and home of the paranoid.”…. and sick and dying. And there in lies the dilemma. When is it bring brave and when is it being stupid?
If I remember correctly, there has been an awful lot of “sick and dying” going on for as long as life has been on this earth. This year hasn’t been too much worse than previous years and a lot better than some years. But I guess that’s a “stupid” thought.
“and sick and dying”
The sick and dying are an extremely small percentage of the population.
“The mask-Believers will probably continue wearing their masks, as symbols of a new-found quasi-religion”
Branch Covidians and their face diaper talismans.
Corn Cobb
Your comment has some sense but your thoughts on masks are wrong.
COMPLETELY WRONG.
YOU could not be more wrong.
The WRONGEST comment on covid in the history of the world.
I hate masks but had to wear one for doctor visits or they wouldn’t see me (for non Covid issues).
That added up to only three hours of mask wearing in 4 months.
Some spread of the virus comes with the spray of water vapor when you cough sneeze holler at the police or even sing in a choir without a mask.
The mask reduces the spray distance which can reach 20 feet with a violent cough.
The virus can pass through a mask when you breathe, but is partially blocked when attached to the water vapor.
You might think anyone who coughs or sneezes should just stay home, so who needs masks
BUT a large percentage of infected people don’t have symtoms so do NOT stay home.
If this makes you feel better, there is no science to support the six foot social distancing rule.
Even when wearing a mask six foot may be too close.
I know three covid victims — one was in horrible shape for three weeks and survived, another lost much of her sense of smell and taste — had no idea she was infected until a test much later.
Guess which one was young?
Your emotionalism wrt masks is noted.
I have a problem here. Hope some of you can help me.
It’s winter here now and where I live it’s generally pretty wind still now. In the day it becomes 20C (today even 22C) so when I stand in the sun (while it is wind still) I feel the warm radiation of the sun on my skin. Under my skin there is water where that radiation is absorbed and that is why I experience this as ‘heat’. So that’s just like the oceans absorb the heat from the sun sun. Not so?
This morning here it was 1C. That’s pretty cold. So when I walk out of here in the night (while it is wind still), I clearly feel the radiation from earth coming at me (because there is no sun). I feel it (that radiation) even from the walls coming at me when I sit on the toilet in the morning. So I think the water under my skin can also absorb that radiation from earth and tell me to put on more clothes?
So would you not agree with me that relative to the temperature of our bodies there is clearly both warm radiation (from sun,) and cold radiation (from earth)?
The problem is now as follows: scientists claim that all EM radiation is warm. Some even claim that the re-radiated EM radiation from the CO2 (14-15 um) can heat the oceans. IOW the CO2 in the atmosphere warms the oceans instead of the other way around. …..
I am saying that following Wiens law, the radiation of 14-15 has got a related temperature of -87C and therefore it cannot possibly heat the oceans.
What does the panel here say?
It’s the sun heating the oceans, nothing else.
And the oceans heat the atmosphere.
No matter what your sense of it, radiation is energy. In the absence of external work, it flows from hot to cold. Your perceptions are real but how you interpret them may be faulty.
How can my skin feel the difference between warm radiation and cold radiation?
You seriously need to check Max Planck’s constant h.
You can neither hear, feel, smell, nor kick such a “number”, yet you can KNOW its meaning.
My cat asks questions about skin temperature, a furry beast, very friendly.
We, are not CAT’s, and my cat has not problem with that. WE need to understand h, or be relegated by the “establishment ” for a “reset”, a CULL:
How does it FEEL to be on the Cull List?
It’s called nerve endings, Henry. It’s the same reason Wind Chill means something to a person, but means nothing to a thermometer.
Radiation mostly flows in straight lines, regardless of what temperature is in front of it.
Incoming radiation heats its target (absolutely no need for water).
Everything with any energy radiates.
The rate of radiation is proportional to the fourth power of temperature.
Anything receiving radiation gets warmer and thus radiates faster.
A hotter radiating source wins over a cooler radiating source because it is putting out more energy.
Therefore, on average, the hotter source heats the cooler target more than the cooler source heats the hotter target.
you ask questions fairly, so I will attempt to give fair answers.
Question 1:
“So would you not agree with me that relative to the temperature of our bodies there is clearly both warm radiation (from sun,) and cold radiation (from earth)?”
You say “relative to the temperature of our bodies”, be careful. Use relative, or absolute, one or the other. Mixing them up leads to trouble and confuses the issue.
Then you say “cold radiation”. Relative to you, you could say that.
Back in the day:
When cameras had photographic film in them, we said “Do not open the camera, you will let the dark out!”. In a relative sense, letting the light in, or letting the dark out is all the same.
In an absolute sense, letting the dark out makes no sense at all. “Dark” is not a quantity of anything. “Cold radiation” is the same as “letting the dark out”.
Question 2:
“scientists claim that all EM radiation is warm.”
OK, true enough. Black Body radiation can be associated with a temperature. That temperature must be warmer than Absolute Zero.
“Some even claim that the re-radiated EM radiation from the CO2 (14-15 um) can heat the oceans.”
No scientist claims this, but many others do.
It is a Huge misunderstanding.
Here is what happens:
Consider an Ideal Place where we can have back radiation (14-15 um), or not, as we choose.
Now we see what happens to an ocean with and without back radiation.
Case #1, without back radiation.
The ocean “sees” the deep cold of Outer Space, only 2-3 deg. above Absolute Zero, -270 deg.
The ocean radiates very fast into this huge thermal energy sink. The ocean cools rapidly.
Case #2, with back radiation.
The ocean “sees” the radiation layer of 14-15 um above it. The effective temperature is -87 deg. This is much warmer than the the Absolute Zero in the first case. The ocean still radiates away it’s energy but does it at a slower rate. So the ocean still cools, but more slowly. All this is because the rate of heat transfer is proportional to the difference in temperature between the heat source and heat sink.
In one case we go from surface temperature to -270 deg, and in the other case to only -87 deg.
So in the presence of back radiation, things will not cool as quickly as they will when exposed to the cold void of Outer Space. This is what has given rise to the mistaken idea of back radiation “heating”.
Tony
Thx so much for that explanation. It is starting to make sense to me.
Just one more question. Earth radiates ca. 10 um BB. Top.
That feels cold to my body. Is what I am saying in my story. How come can micro waves with even much higher wavelengths than 10 um make (my) water warm?
“How come can micro waves with even much higher wavelengths than 10 um make (my) water warm?”
Forget everything you know about BB radiation and the equivalent temperature. This is quite different. Your microwave oven has a great big power supply in it. It produces a *very* intense beam of microwaves. The exact wavelength of the microwave radiation was carefully selected to match an absorption band of water. The individual water molecules absorb the energy and transfer that energy to surrounding molecules as heat. BB radiation has nothing to do with it. As long as the electrical power is on, the water will continue to absorb the microwave radiation and get hotter and hotter.
We note here that the wavelength chosen is only weakly absorbed by water. The reason for this choice is so that the microwaves can penetrate your food and cook it more evenly. If the radiation was absorbed to rapidly, the outermost layer would get overcooked while the inside portion would remain cold.
The microwave is operated at the particular frequency of 2.45 GHz to efficiently couple to and excite the electrons of covalently shared orbitals of water molecules. Aka the 2.45 GHz strong absorption band.
Tony, you’ll soon be disappointed to learn that Henry’s thanks for your explanation were entirely disingenuous. He imagines his follow-up question to be a gotcha.
As with your first answer about slowing the rate of cooling, you answered well. Rest assured that Henry won’t be budged.
I can’t imagine that he really believes that there is such a thing as “cold radiation”. That was bait to try to get you to correct him. Then he would snap his creaking trap shut on you, that if there is no cold radiation then how can a cold sky “warm” a relatively hot sea? He doesn’t even read what you say about cooling faster with no back radiation. Just waits to spring his tired checkmate move on you. Very tedious really.
I‘ve watched him waste many a person’s time in the past with his predictable strategy.
Let’s see him prove me wrong.
TonyL
Trivia fact: Small ants are unaffected by the radiation in a microwave oven.
@ Clyde Spencer:
You are *not* to put ants in the Microwave.
If She Who Must Be Obeyed found out what I was up to, I would not survive.
Also, True. Small ants are shorter than the wavelength, so energy coupling is very inefficient.
re: “The exact wavelength of the microwave radiation was carefully selected to match an absorption band of water. ”
Incorrect.
A Dunning-Kruger inspired assumption.
to: Joel O.Bryan July 18, 2020 at 4:07 pm
re: The microwave is operated at the particular frequency of 2.45 GHz to efficiently couple to and excite the electrons of covalently shared orbitals of water molecules.
Incorrect.
WHY does this myth still exist among the “educated”?
Dunning-Kruger explains it all….
The rate of radiation depends on the temperature of the radiating substance. The temperature of what the radiation is traveling towards is irrelevant.
AndyHce,
Your first part is true, proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature. Second part isn’t—the other body’s temperature is not irrelevant—and it’s because of the first point.
Unless the object that the radiation is traveling toward is at absolute zero, that distant object is radiating some amount toward you. It is the NET flux that matters.
Radiating toward an object that is at 3K will be essentially a net flux equal to the outgoing. Radiating toward an object that is at 5800K will be a net flux roughly equal to the incoming. Radiating toward an object at the same temperature as you will yield a zero net flux.
If you are at 310K radiating toward a volume of mass that is radiating at 87K instead of at 3K, you will experience a lower net outbound flux, which means you won’t cool off as quickly. So it is not irrelevant.
I said that earlier. The second law of thermodynamics is a statistical evaluation, not an absolute. Her I was simply reinforcing a particular point because the opposite of that truth had just been stated.
Sorry, I saw that after commenting. Just consider it my support for your comment!
Under the skin in general you find more or less fat as isolation, subcutaneous fat, not water.
Henry, you have raised an interesting point. I think I have part of the answer but my lack of education in advanced physics may be leading me to make incorrect statements. But here goes anyway:
The 15 µm radiation emitted by the greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere is not “black body radiation” but is generated by those molecules dropping from a higher energy state to a lower. Once it’s emitted, it would be indistinguishable from black body radiation from objects at the -87°C that you calculate.
I make the analogy to the white light coming from my LED desk lamp, to the white light coming from the overhead light, which still has a 60-watt bulb with a tungsten filament at about 2500°C. The radiation looks the same to the eye, they have similar spectra (but obviously the IR portion is missing from the LED), but the LED light comes from a cold source and the tungsten bulb light is from a hot source.
Can the “cold” 15µm radiation heat the “warm” ocean? Not exactly, but it becomes part of the overall incoming radiation that the ocean receives, which is dominated of course by solar radiation. If the ocean is to remain at a steady temperature, its total emitted black body radiation must be equal to the total incoming. So if the incoming is to be increased due to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere emitting more “cold” radiation, the ocean temperature must rise until its emitted black body radiation again equals the total incoming radiation.
So goes the global warming theory, whose main problem is that CO2 is a minor player in the greenhouse stakes, which is dominated by H2O. It also ignores the role of phase changes in water, and many other complicating factors such as clouds, albedo, diffuse vs specular reflectivity, etc. that make understanding of climate so challenging.
Human skin is a sensitive detector of thermal radiation, even at quite low intensities, as you have noted. Most of us feel small changes in incoming radiation without exactly understanding what it is that we’re feeling; our inherent understanding of heat and cold is dominated by conductive heat transfer.
We don’t really feel the greenhouse radiation as such, but we can notice its absence. If you go and stand in the desert just after sunset, you feel “cold” relative to how you would feel just after sunset in a more humid area. The much lower water vapour content in dry areas means much less greenhouse effect. While CO2 is a well-mixed gas whose content differs by ±10 percent from place to place, the water vapour content of the atmosphere changes by a factor of 50 from the least to the most humid regions. What better illustration could there be of the relative importance of CO2 and H2O as greenhouse gases?
When discussing heat transfer by radiation, we must bear in mind that “Black Bodies Matter”
Incoming short wave radiation can penetrate up to perhaps 100 meters into the ocean, depending on water clarity and other conditions. Some is reflected back out (letting one see into the depths), much of it is absorbed. What is absorbed heats the water (or grows plants, etc.)
IR radiation can only travel a few micrometers through water so the heat from the absorbed radiation is stored in the water, IR radiation cannot reach the surface to be radiated away. Thus the water frequently becomes warmer and warmer as long as sunlight is coming in. IR can only be emitted away from the water at the very surface. IR from the atmosphere cannot be absorbed except by a very thin layer of the water top.
Evaporation removes much heat from the water surface. During nighttime overturning, considerable heat is brought to the surface where it can be evaporated and radiated away but significant heat builds up in the water over seasonal time frames. Heated water that is transported to lower depths can remain warmer for years, decades, centuries, millennia.
clarification:
IR radiation can only travel a few micrometers through water so the heat from the absorbed SOLAR radiation is stored in the water,
AndyHce
It isn’t just the IR EM radiation that heats water. All of the EM radiation that is absorbed (from UV to red) is converted to heat. It is only the radiation that is reflected at the surface boundary, or is used in photosynthesis, that does not contribute to heating.
Radiation might be reflected from any depth that it reaches. If it were not you would never se those corals, tropical fishes, or anything else down there. That which is reflected back out of the water has not be absorbed, not converted to heat.
Radiation that penetrates the water any significant distance is not IR but once it is absorbed it immediately or eventually becomes heat and can be emitted as IR. If at any depth, that IR cannot travel far enough to escape the water.
I suppose the above is also a statistical statement. Perhaps a vanishingly small number of IR photons manage to travel from depth far enough to escape past the ocean surface just as some travel far enough from a rock surface to escape the sky.
re: “Incoming short wave [3-30 MHz?] radiation can penetrate up to perhaps 100 meters into the ocean”
Conductive sea water? Not so much (hint: Its the reason they use hydrophones for underwater comms)
Tom, You’re trying to understand the liberal mind. Don’t go there. I was there for years. Some things really are impossible. Grin and bear it.
I got my absentee ballot for the WI August 11th election today. The inner envelope that gets mailed to the village clerk has my name on it. Whoever handles the absentee ballots will know who those ballots are from. What’s to prevent those persons from chucking ballots of voters they don’t like into the burn bag?
Nothing at all, and a postman has already been arrested for tampering with mail-in ballots. If anyone in a highly populated area tampered with, or ‘disappeared’ votes, it would likely go unnoticed.
The postman was arrested for altering party affiliation on mail-in post cards declaring party. Very Different fro altering sealed mailed ballots.
He changed Democrat to Republican checked box as a joke on people on his route. Some joke as now he is about to be an unemployed convicted felon.
The mail vote fraud the Dems plan is dumping thousands of fraudulent mail in ballots from dead voters still on registration rolls and provisional voters.
Dumping thousands of valid Republican ballots into a landfill would work just as well, and don’t think that individual postmen won’t be tempted to do so. They would be considered heroes in some circles.
Here’s a suggestion: if you plan to vote by mail, don’t put a political sign in your yard, or you may never receive your absentee ballot.
jtom July 18, 2020 at 8:06 pm
…if you plan to vote by mail, don’t put a political sign in your yard, or you may never receive your absentee ballot.
BINGO! Pick your absentee ballot up at city hall, and put it the city hall drop box. But here in Wisconsin, and I assume around the country, your name is still on the outside of the the envelope and so your vote is still in jeopardy of being routed to the burn bag by anyone who handles it from that point on.
Vote in person on November 3rd if you can.
In some states the elections board keeps the historical record by street address of which party voted from that address and how many votes there were. It is possible to run that thru the Google map API and generate detailed maps by house of how many votes were cast by registered party at at each address by each election.
The procedures are supposed to require that “poll watchers” from both parties be present and monitor all handling of ballots. I know some of the folks who do this for every election in my area and I think at least this part of the process is okay. I’d be more concerned about whether the ballots were actually filled in and mailed by actual legally registered voters in the jurisdiction involved.
Check to see if your voting history includes that election (after the election of course). If the ballot was processed, the record should indicate you voted. That isn’t to say they can replace your ballot with a fake one.
https://crosscut.com/2020/03/your-vote-wont-count-washingtons-primary-if-you-dont-declare-party-thats-wrong
WA state’s primaries earlier this year required that voters declare their party affiliation on the outside of the envelope. If you didn’t select a party affiliation, your vote was discarded. Not sure how that’s legal.
Not sure about WA or other states but in OH it is required for a PRIMARY election to declare a party (if you have one) whether you vote in person or absentee.
The reason is that you can only vote for the party’s candidate you prefer to run in the general that you declared.
If you don’t declare a party then your ballot would only have general issues such as tax levies etc on it.
(Often supporters try to get an issue on a primary ballot (usually a lower turnout) if they don’t think it would pass in the general election.)
Same thing required in Vermont.
Voting is compulsory in Australia. If you don’t get your name ticked off the list then you get fined. Of course that doesn’t stop people from voting ‘informal’, they simply fold up the ballot papers without filling them in and pop them in the box.
It’ll be hard knowing who to vote for next time around here, both the major parties are left wing now. Either left of center or extreme left.
If elections could change anything, they would be illegal Attributed to numerous wags
Does OH require it on the outside of the envelope? To me it just seems like an easy way for unscrupulous persons to “accidentally” lose votes for specific parties.
I don’t remember. I think so. (This was for the Ohio primary during the WhaHOO! virus thing, as some Dems think of it since it disrupted so much.)
But I do remember that the application to receive an absentee ballot included 4 choices to prove you were who said you were and eligible to vote.
Mine passed. My wife’s didn’t.
She reapplied using a different proof and was approved.
It should be harder to vote by mail than in person.
Jeff Alberts July 19, 2020 at 10:19 am
To me it just seems like an easy way for unscrupulous persons to “accidentally” lose votes for specific parties.
Either today or tomorrow I’m off to the Village Hall with my sealed up vote to ask the clerk how the concept of voting by secret ballot is preserved by having my name & address on the mailed in vote.
Black felt marker
For those who like to read (to get smarter!), why the GHGE is wrong after all.
Thoughtful comments appriciated..
https://www.docdroid.net/phJh2cU/the-strange-nasa-map1-doc
Sometimes you find something new (to me at least!).
A quote from another website: “A fluorescence molecule is usually excited by absorbing a single photon of a particular energy, corresponding to a particular wavelength. However, excitation is also possible by simultaneous absorption of two (n) photons, each of half (1/n) the energy and therefore twice (n times) the wavelength. Because this requires all the absorbed photons to be in the vicinity of the molecule within a limited time frame, the chance for a multi-photon excitation event to occur is much lower than the chance for a single photon event. The chance of a single photon event is proportional to the number of photons ‘hitting’ the molecule, and therefore proportional to the intensity. The chance of two photons hitting the molecule in a short interval is proportional to the square of this hit rate, so proportional to the square of the intensity.”
From: https://svi.nl/ExcitationPhotons
Assuming CO2 behaves is a similar way to the molecules quoted above, this implies to me, that CO2 would respond not just to 15 micron radiation but also 30 micro radiation and so on.
Can anyone say if this has been factored into CO2 sensitivity calculations.
Can anyone also answer this question, the earth radiates as a black body radiator T^4 etc. Do blackbody formulae apply when the body in question is not a black body but has chuncks or discontinuities in its response curve?
Multi-photon events are rare, i.e., not significant in most cases and you can look at the absorption spectrum and see that what you are suggesting regarding CO2 does not occur. I would add that fluorescent emission is lower energy than excitation.
With regard to blackbody radiation, nothing is as perfect as theory. That’s where engineers take over and make the world run. Now, just assume a spherical cow.
“Can anyone say if this has been factored into CO2 sensitivity calculations.”
No! Absolutely Not.
You said it yourself: The chance of two photons hitting the molecule in a short interval is proportional to the square of this hit rate.
Two photon processes are *very rare* occurrences. The only place you will see them is in an application where you have a really powerful laser. For the atmosphere, two photon absorption will be orders of magnitude less than garden variety single photon absorption.
Someone (Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State University) has realized that all that weather chaos requires a bit more structured analysis …
Is Weather Chaotic? Coexisting Chaotic and Non-Chaotic Attractors within Lorenz Models
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342872964_Is_Weather_Chaotic_Coexisting_Chaotic_and_Non-Chaotic_Attractors_within_Lorenz_Models
Hopefully such ideas can filter way down into the ‘climate modelers’ thinking.
Just a note on Hosting migration. Right now where I am, a huge storage migration from a very well known supplier to another also well known, might have forgotten the poor hpc engineers who suddenly notice their content (eng. data, hard won) freezes, shoots off in some other direction, goes fishing.
Talk about loose threads, and hair loss!
https://ktxs.com/news/big-country/wind-turbine-causes-wildfire-in-nolan-county
Fire still going in brush 5 days later
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktxs.com/amp/news/local/the-game-ranch-fire-continues-to-burn-five-days-later-in-nolan-co-land-owners-worried
Seems efforts to produce power have a long history of resulting in fires.
Yeah, you don’t know anything about this at all.
Whats to know? Town built on coal has to move coz its burning.
It was the local authority that caused the problem by filling an old, disused, mine with garbage because of the problem with smells and vermin. They had always burned landfill that was standard practice. Of course, who’d a thought that setting fire to heaps of garbage might actually start a fire with the remaining coal in the mine, and then spread. D’oh!
Patrick MJD
I thought you implied you knew “the” story. Actually that is one theory. There are others. The point I was making is that harnessing energy comes with risk. Obviously that was a bit complex for you.
“Simon July 20, 2020 at 1:20 am
I thought you implied you knew “the” story. Actually that is one theory.”
No. It is actually what caused the problem. No hypothesis, no theory, no models. You live in NZ, right? I know people who live in PA.
BTW, you risk your life every day simply getting out of bed, or stepping in to or out of the shower or even getting takeout. So your point about risk is rather moot,
Well done, Patrick!
Another Simple Simon attempted deceit goes down in flames….
J Mac
OK Meat Mead Mac tell me where my deceit was? I stand by….
1. There are several theories re the burning.
2. All energy comes with risk.
You really are struggling aren’t you.
Wind Turbine Causes Major Wildfire
https://ktxs.com/news/big-country/wind-turbine-causes-wildfire-in-nolan-county
Fire still going in brush 5 days later
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktxs.com/amp/news/local/the-game-ranch-fire-continues-to-burn-five-days-later-in-nolan-co-land-owners-worried
Current Fire Status from Inciweb:
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/6855/52600/
Apologies for double post.
This open thread is a great concept. Different people just create a discussion topic, and various folks just take it from there. Be nice to see this be a weekly feature for folks to just throw ideas out there.
Hopefully there is some Toyota Rav 4 mechanics on here. I just put a down payment on a 2021 Toyota Rav 4 PHEV with a 18.1 kW battery pack. Has a range of 42 miles on the battery alone and has a 2.5L gas engine to take over the front wheel drive, and the electric motor drives the back wheels, making it an AWD in both modes, with a healthy ground clearance. As long as you put gas in the tank, range is unlimited, but 42 mile EV range will be good for 3/4 of my driving. It has a smaller dedicated motor/generator for charging the battery, presumably while parked I hope. Plus it has a Level 1 charger built in, which will be handy for charging at the condo in town where there is only a 15 A service for a block heater plug.
Toyota is stingy with technical specs on the 2021 model so far. I am wanting to utilize the battery, by installing my own 3500 W 240 V inverter. Need to know the battery voltage, and where the best connection might be, that could easily be undone in case I need service, since this would probably void the warranty. I am off grid for 3-4 months of the year in far off wilderness, and would be really nice to have access to that battery for my electrical needs, especially if the gas 2.5L engine just automatically starts and charges the batter when the voltage meets a predetermined low level. Have solar to recharge, but when it is cloudy for 40 days and/or winter, solar is practically useless as we all know. Any ideas anyone? Have searched far and wide, and some interesting Youtube videos on the vehicle itself, but no technical details are available it seems. Seems to be the PHEV I have been waiting for that will be useful in cold weather.
Me? Tesla CyberTruck on order. 3-motor, zero to 60 in 2.9 sec.
I’ll race ya, when we both take delivery. Or tug-of-war.
Do you mean you want to make it into a generator of mains power off grid?
Or charge it at 3.5kW?
I wouldn’t do either. Expensive dangerous and worst of all warranty and insurance voiding.
Trying to tap into stuff deliberately made untappable to idiot proof it, is not recommended.
Yes, there’s a good reason designs are made to be idiot proof.
It already has an on board 120 volt 15 Amp charger, so a slow charge, but also a relatively small L-Ion battery at 18.1 kW since it is a plugin hybrid. So it will take all night to charge when plugged into a North American household power socket. But I am in no rush in that application and it is a PHEV, so it can just drive on gas while recharging the battery too.
I just want to tap the battery, same as you would a Telsa Powerwall, as a stationary power source for total off grid, but be able to charge it with the 2.5 L gas engine or solar panels if the Sun is shining since have 1 kW of solar on my RV roof which would charge normally through the on-board charger and my 1 kW of solar panels.
Yes, a bit inefficient, but that is the nature of solar and conversion losses. This would just basically be a fairly significant generator/battery, which is what it is already doing for driving the Toyota SUV. But I would be just be inverting the 18.1 kW DC battery to 120/240 AC to power the RV, but only 30 Amps which would power a 1800 watt load @ 15 Amp for about 10 hours before requiring recharging. Actually, would be double that if 240 AC. A fairly small load compared to the the big electric drive motors on the SUV. But yes, you want to get that right, just like when I climb a high voltage power line to fix it, you can’t make a mistake or you don’t come home. Or fixing switchgear hot at 600 volts cause you can’t shut down. I’m still here, touch wood.
I have been generating my own electricity at 100 kW with small hydro for 30 years, so fairly familiar with high voltage. I do a bit of solar with lead acid batteries but they are very unpractical for a mobile application in an RV off grid and mobile. Instead of buying a Tesla Powerwall, would rather just use the Toyota PHEV battery. The battery wouldn’t know the difference, but obviously Toyota wouldn’t approve of it and it would void the warranty if it caused something to go wrong. A risk I can afford to take.
Which is why I would like to connect with a Toyota mechanic who can advise the best course of action. It already has a 150 watt 120 VAC inverter for real small loads, just like a lot of vehicles have already similar to a cigarette lighter plug. I am just upping that AC output 10x or 20x if 240V. I hear the Tesla truck will come with this built in, at least a 120 VAC 15 amp circuit, since it is a work truck and would have a power plug available to run small tools up to 1800 watts off the battery all day etc. This will become a selling feature, since is very capable of doing so. I already have been doing so for 25 years, just with lead acid batteries and inverters with solar and/or generator when totally off grid as I am now in the remote mountains and wilderness.
The problem is that there’s a lot of safety stuff in both charge and discharge to protect a fairly flammable battery from -er – flamming! I don’t know that there is some stuff that monitors how much its been discharged to implement an over-discharge cut off, rather than just detecting – say – low voltage, but unless I knew that for a fact and could duplicate it I wouldn’t go near what you are proposing and that’s with a masters in electronics.
In short you want to discharge that battery in a different way to that which the manufacturers of the car designed for and intended: That will absolutely void any liability and any insurance if – say – that battery goes bang in a big way. I may not a lawyer but I guess you are in the USA with private medical insurance. How do they relate to people behaving as legally demonstrably negligent?
I’ve seen a 2Ah lithium battery catch fire – I’ve seen the result of one of similar size that burnt out a car in which it was left, just in the sun in a California car park. The pictures are online somewhere. You wouldn’t tap your gas tank to make a feed for a room heater either. This is 18 kWh. that around 20kg of high explosive if it all comes out in one go.
Just don’t. You don’t know enough to be scared. I do.
Former UPS technician here. Tapping into high-voltage battery stacks is a very bad idea.
If Toyota or some reputable after-market supplier comes out with a kit to do it, maybe. On your own with a screwdriver, NO NO NO.
Remember, the battery stack CANNOT BE TURNED OFF. There is no safe way to access it unless you really know what you are doing. Even unplugging a cable could cause a spark damaging the system.
Typically these items run 300 to 600 VDC. Right in the range where an arc can be sustained to the point of destruction. This means that an accidental spark from a tool in the wrong position will sustain itself by ionizing the air.
Not like what happens if you drop a spanner across a starter battery. Oops, I just burned a spanner and made a spark. More like oops the battery is on fire and you’re dead.
Maybe these battery packs have internal fuses. Willing to bet your life on it?
Aside from safety, if you tap directly to the battery you bypass the charge-discharge electronics. Many of these systems have charge monitoring electronics that keep track of the current in and out. Bypass that, and the system may assume the wrong charge level, leading to undercharge or overcharge. Lithium Ion systems are very sensitive to errors either way.
This is one situation where a do-it-yourself type can get into real trouble.
Thanks Bruce…good technical reply. Same for everyone else. I will admit I have little experience with L-Ion high voltage DC battery packs. It would be good to find out where to make that connection after the battery pack, such as perhaps the electric cabin heater, which may even be on an AC circuit by then. Probably about the load I would want to invert anyway. But I have zero technical data on this set-up, so yes, would be in the dark risking life and limb. Won’t be doing anything until I know with 100% certainty that I won’t be taking a one way trip to the morgue. Or ruining a perfectly good brand new vehicle.
There are some folks buying up the older battery packs which are wearing down in useful life for mileage range in older EV’s. Perhaps they are NiCad batteries, so a different set up. But some have been L-Ion and are working albeit they suffer the same inefficiencies as the EV was for range. But perhaps a battery recovered from a vehicle is a different ball of wax in that it isn’t already all connected into the entire car circuitry. I will definitely need to do more research, and hopefully a factory kit would become available that is fail proof as could be. Not wanting to fry myself and the new car, but am buying it whether I attempt this hack or not since always wanted a PHEV. I have my own mostly ‘free’ electricity and do a lot of short range driving which would ideal with this new Toyota PHEV with a range of 42 miles on the battery alone. 302 combined Hp with the 2.5 L gas engine, so will also get along at a good clip. Looking forward to delivery later this year. Thanks everyone for your thoughtful replies and will be taking all this into consideration.
“I just want to tap the battery, same as you would a Telsa Powerwall, as a stationary power source for total off grid”
I’ll bet if a car manufacturer offered this option to the public, the cars would sell like hotcakes. I would buy one myself. My power goes out, I plug the house into the car. Then you have a very quiet generator that can be refueled easily and can be run continuously for as long as is needed, or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. 🙂
You would be far better off simply buying a small trailer, and then loading it up with 8 x 12V deep cycle (RV-boat battery) lead-acid batteries, connected in a 2P – 4S config (48 VDC), and a standard marine-duty 12 VDC inverter to make the clean 120/240 VAC power you want. Then get a 1500-3000 Watt quiet inverter generator to charge the batteries. In this set-up have to decide if cheaper modified sine-wave inverters are good enough, or a much more expensive pure-sine wave inverters for sensitive electronics is needed.
Depending on your budget, the battery choice comes down to capacity:
EverStart 35 Ah lead-acid Marine battery from Walmart ~ $90/each. About $800 for 8 batteries.
or…
Top of the line 100Ah 12V sealed lead-acid Renogy ~$250/each (64 lbs each). About $2,200 for 8.
8Kw and 10Kw Pure sine wave 48 VDC to 120VAC/240VAC inverters are about $3,000.
https://invertersrus.com/product/aims-picoglf10kw48v240vs/
7Kw modified sine wave 48 VDC to 120 VAC inverters about $1,200.
https://invertersrus.com/product/aims-pwrig700048w/
Or better yet, just get the 2x4Kw inverter generators and a couple of 5 gallon gas cans. And save thousands of $. With modern inverter-generators you can even pair them up with phase synchronizers when you need double the Kilowatts.
Voiding the warranty on your new $45K Toyota is beyond dumb.
I already have all that for my mobile off grid needs, and is really, really heavy. I have been generating 100 Kw small hydro grid connected for 30 years so very familiar with all this. I just want to use the Toyota L-Ion battery as described, including the 2.5 L gas engine to charge for my off grid needs. Just want to do it right so hoping to connect with a Toyota mechanic who knows their tech inside out.
The problem is there is no “right way” to do that to your EV’s battery, a use for which it was not designed.
It is just using amps so it wouldn’t know or care if the electrons are being used to power a 150 Hp electric motor for the SUV, or running my 150 W satellite/laptop for internet and other fairly small loads up to 1500 watts, perhaps double that if went 240 VAC. The biggest issue is finding the proper place to tap the battery voltage, and may need an DC-DC transformer to 48 VDC for the AC pure sine wave inverter input since the battery voltage is probably similar to the Pirus battery pack at 201 VDC.
Now Toyota may have designed it so it can’t work for e.g, maybe they have to see RPM from a tach on the drive train before the engine will start to recharge the battery, or some other issue that is designed so it can’t work. This is why I need all the technical specifications and hope to talk to a Toyota tech mechanic who knows these specific details inside out. Although the video says the engine starts and charges the battery when reaching a set lower pre-determined voltage, so as it keeps its battery charged and healthy/warmer if cold. Or you can push a button manually, hold the button, and then the engine recharges the battery presumably at a standstill if necessary. Whether that is efficient use of gasoline running the 2.5L engine as a generator is another matter as I don’t know what RPM the engine operates at and how much hp and current it puts out to charge the battery at the voltage that I don’t know yet, but cost isn’t the issue. But efficiency sort of is. In principal the idea should work flawlessly, if it hasn’t been engineered not to work or there is some reason I am not yet aware of.
I have run my welding truck as such with 400 Amps at 27 VDC for 32 years. That’s nearly 10 kW output on the 240 VAC generator side. I just use 8 12V Walmart Ever Start Max deep cycle batteries in parallel, (relatively cheap) which I run 4 pure sine wave inverters off a main bus for different circuits with a total output of 7 Kw at 120 VAC. In this case my Millar 400 Amp diesel welder is the generator when required, but it also can tie in with one of my portable solar banks. But the diesel genset weighs almost a 1000 pounds, and the 8 Deep cycle batteries with the insulated, heated battery base and vented battery box also weighs a 1000 pounds, so my 1 Ton welding truck is fairly loaded up, not counting tools, torches and a 120 gallon diesel fuel tank. Overloaded actually, but I have been already doing all this for many years, the only difference is that the inverter tech has gotten much better with the pure sine wave the last 10 years. The older square wave (modified) has limitations on running certain things, and has blown up some sensitive equipment, so now almost everything is pure sine wave. The only difference now is that I would be using a 18.1 kW Lithium ion battery.
I am sure this can be done with the 2021 Toyota Rav 4 Prime PHEV, since it isn’t rocket science and will be a selling point for a work truck like Tesla is doing. Your point about warranty is noted. Alternatively, I could buy a used battery pack out of an older EV, and do the same and operate as a type of Powerwall, and just use my propane and gas generators for charging which I already have in my 37′ toy hauler RV. Having sufficient reserve amps in a battery is very nice, but lead acid is just so inefficient on a weight to power ratio. And only should be used to 50% battery capacity (Never let lead acid battery voltage go below 11.8 VDC if possible). I am done with lead acid batteries.
Blew the earlier version of this reply by doing some mistabbed research. Here is some real tech info, as I am SME energy storage guy with multiple issued US patents. Also proud owner of a 2007 Ford hybrid Escape. Whose hybrid battery still is good after 13 years unless I let her sit for a week, in which case I have to active the anticipated 390V jump start button for about a second on the start only traction battery partition. Rest is still fine, as is start partition after 5 minutes.
Two questions answered will resolve your situation. I give a speculative opinion at end.
1. What is the battery chemistry? LiIon has more energy density, but less Cycle life. My Escape is NiMH, and has lasted now 13 years by floating between 40% and 60% charge. Never more, never less. Float is key to that chemistry cyclelife.
My iPad is three years old, and the battery is already weak because always run from 100% to 10%. Its negative electrochemistry has to do with anode SEI buildup. Inherent. So if you use any hybrid vehicle battery for deep charge/ discharge, you will for sure kill it sooner rather than later. Something Tesla does NOT explain.
2. What will your duty cycle be? If large charge/discharge, solution for long off-grid ‘utility’ needs Go SLAC. (SLAC are golf cart and fishing trolling motor long life deep discharge PbA) They only last a couple of years. But are relatively cheap and easily replaced, and will not crap out your very expensive hybrid battery.
On my sailboat, I rigged a system where the engine/alternator automatically came on for a half hour if needed by the house bank batteries (a searchable term) for days, no matter if sailing only. Also gave us the hot water from exhaust. At most 1/2 hour per day of sailing.
Thanks Rud…if there is anyone who would know how to do this, it would be you. Enjoyed your books. If I understand correctly, the Toyota PHEV would automatically start the 2.5 L engine and start charging the battery once the voltage dropped to a pre-set limit. So wouldn’t be discharging the battery below the already pre-set factory limits. The L-Ion battery would just think it was driving on battery and time to turn on the engine when the battery voltage dropped. But these exact details are what Toyota doesn’t make easy to obtain.
In the day time, I would be charging it with my RV rooftop solar, just with the normal on board charger. A bit less efficient for conversion losses, but would work and not consuming much power in daylight, since am out working, fishing, placer mining or hiking.
I love the sailboat electric/hybrid idea. I always dreamed about having a keel with 3-4 tons of Absorbent Glass Mat batteries, or even good old lead acid since weight wouldn’t be the end of the world in a sailboat keel.
Couple of reminders not from me. My Ford Hybrid Escape is nominally 390 volt DC, orange cables, special training (there is a battery disconnect ‘plug’ taught EMC that I learned early). And, my hybrid Escape also provides a 120 V AC outlet off the 390V DC traction battery—120V, 150W, via an electronic DC/AC+V inverter. Why only 150W? Charges all electronics, powers an AC light or two, plus all minor car AC stuff like tire air compressors. No need for more (like a hair dryer), although it could be built.
So you can rig your new hybrid Beyond what mine has. But will take some sophisticated electronics, and great care because of high (lethal) traction battery DC voltage.
I still think doubling the simple house bank battery solution on my late beloved sailboat (a Hunter 35.5 with extra spinnaker rig, enlarged engine alternator, and a related 2x standard 12V house bank battery) Is a safer and cheaper solution. In my Sailboat, adding a second 100 amp 12v SLAC added about 90 pounds to the aft stern battery compartment lower section; offset almost perfectly by a second non-kedge anchor and its rhode chain Stowed in the forward Bow anchor compartment.
Sail Trimmed Perfect (I won the National Championship Bigboat, and won second national in small boat (because lost a single race protest), while co-Captaining my college sailing team) my dreamboat Windsong was almost ideal.
And still got a Hunter 35.5 max hull speed of 7.3 knots when finely trimmed in 15 knot breeze plus low waves on Lake Michigan. That is real, real good. My kids never understood why Dad got so excited after he ran around the sailboat, fiddling with this and that and then sustaining 7.3 knots.
test
This is still my killer challenge to AGW:
http://theearthintime.com
BOMB: if we are in climate crisis, with abnormal warming, why does it no show up — not even a tinge of a ding — in the 50-million recordings of USHCN and the 500-million recordings of GHCN?
… and with 2019 being the lowest TMAX in the entire history of the entire world.{one outlier abnormal year notwithstanding}
[please do not counter with the “The USA is only 5% of the surface of the earth” meme.]
::::: windlord :::::
Actually, I wish someone would counter with a plausible answer as to how an area as large as the contiguous USA sees no “stupid-ass greenhouse effect”. As you point out correctly, the meme is DOA.
I think the realm of answers is probably along the lines of tipping point waah, children’s children’s, children’s, children waah and orangeman bad waah, your (sic) a Trumpster and a climate racist, and calculators are a far right wing tool to make democrats look stupid, waah.
What did I miss?
1) “NOAA has stamped “OBSOLETE” on the measured data, so it doesn’t count.”
2) “Linear thinking, numerical measuring, and valorizing objective reality over feelings is Fascist.”
3) “50-million measurements might be true for you, but they are not true for me.”
4) “So what?”
been enjoying views of comet neowise with my boys the past few nights with summer finally arrived in the PNW. The first night we drove around to three locations trying to spot it, no luck. Went back home and my middle son spotted it with a perfect view from his bedroom. Using the opportunity to teach some science over the summer.
The sky region of Neowise is here allways coverd with clouds, even when the Big Digger is visibke and other stars too.
I saw it yeaterday for seconds, than it was hidden by clouds for the rest of the evening.
No idea who is responsible for my inconvinient 😀
Closest photos of the sun 🌞 surface EVAH! from the ESA solar orbiter:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53429054
Among the UK-assembled craft’s novel insights are views of mini-flares dubbed “camp fires”.
These are millionths of the size of the Sun’s giant flares that are routinely observed by Earth telescopes.
Whether these miniature versions are driven by the same mechanisms, though, is unclear. But these small flares could be involved in the mysterious heating process that makes the star’s outer atmosphere, or corona, far hotter than its surface.
“The Sun has a relatively cool surface of about 5,500 degrees and is surrounded by a super-hot atmosphere of more than a million degrees,” explained Esa project scientist Daniel Müller.
“There’s a theory put forward by the great US physicist Eugene Parker, who conjectured that if you should have a vast number of tiny flares this might account for an omnipresent heating mechanism that could make the corona hot.”
Whatever their role, the camp fires are certainly small – which may explain why they’ve been missed up to this point, says David Berghmans, from the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the principal investigator on the probe’s Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI).
“We developed a method of freezing hamsters so they were lumps of ice that you could bang on the table. Then we would bring them back to life in one of the first microwave ovens that existed.
…….
This is all part of evolution as Darwin saw it. You are not going to get a new species flourishing unless it has a food supply. In a sense that is what we are becoming. We are the food.”
and lot more hilarious (mostly wrong) comments from James Lovelock: on his 101 birthday.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/18/james-lovelock-the-biosphere-and-i-are-both-in-the-last-1-per-cent-of-our-lives
I was able to celebrate with him last year, a highlight that I hope to never forget. He still has a sense of humor and just to get out of bed at 100 is an accomplishment but I understand that he and Sandy walk a couple of miles every day.
My favourite quote is one about the Richard Branson’ Gaia Airlines and James Lovelock’s Virgin Brothels.
Hey fellow WUWT posters!
Today the Wife and I transgressed a kind of remarkable milestone: 2,000 handmade face masks! It is amazing how many a pair of arthritic oldsters can make when the don’t have societal narratives committing their weekends, their pre-dawn mornings, and so on. We get a couple dozen to maybe 4 dozen done a day (and admittedly, when the juices aren’t flowing, zero to a few). But, now 100 days into this mask-making, we’ve crossed the ‘rubicon’.
Kind of an interesting evolution, too. I’m a physical scientist, so I researched somewhat the mechanism of open-cloth air filtering. Turns out that almost all of a really well-made mask’s abilities boils down to it having many good-but-not-individually-awesome layers. Layer one might catch 70% of the particles. Layer 2 another 50%, the soft middle layer, another 25, the next one 50% again, and the one touching one’s face, perhaps 40%. More or less.
But that comes down to ((1 – 0.7) • (1 – 0.5) • (1 – 0.25) • (1 – 0.5) • (1 – 0.4)) → 0.034 or 3.4% probability of pass-thru. 96% filtering!
As I said, they’ve evolved.
Everyone wanted our 5 layer masks (with the above estimates of per-layer efficacy), but now that it is summer, they turn out to be too warm, heavy. Cloying.
So, we reinvented the masks with a 2-fabric plus 2-stabilizer configuration (stabilizer is a synthetic product that has a heat-fusing adhesive so that it’ll stick to the cloth when ironed on). I don’t think the math works out the same, but I’m pretty sure they’re still achieving 85% filtering. And they’re really light-weight.
Still… the market moves. A lot of people don’t like the Homer Simpson ‘snout’ look (form-fitting cone). Many at-home makers emulated the el-cheapo paper disposable masks that you see everywhere, with a pleated near-ear fabrication, and only 2 layers of cloth.
We tried those an a half-dozen different attach-to-head devices (strings, thin elastics, thick elastics, flat elastics, around-the-head elastics, hand-made sewn ties…) and have converged on “good fabric” and “flat quarter inch (8 mm)” elastics. Somewhat easier to make, less stressful to wear.
THE PROBLEM, now, is availability of dark, 100% cotton fabric that is neither flimsy-and-thin, nor thick as canvas. The market turns out to be nearly sold-out. Everywhere. We’ve looked. We’ve even tried meeting the $750/mininum-order requirements of various wholesalers, to buy entire ‘bolts’ of fabric. Only to have our money taken, and a promise to ship the fabric by the end of September!.
Ridiculous.
Anyway, I would humbly posit that our machinations are Good Ol’ Human Ingenuity at work. We’ve always got a backlog of 50 to 250 masks-to-make, and tho’ it looked for awhile like the demand was slacking, just this last week, our backlog jumped to 250+. Wow. Word-of-mouth seems to work.
Wishing every last WUWT-er (even the obnoxious nattering types) a healthy and prosperous remainder-of–2020. This is history in the making (no, not the masks! the jaw-dropping deranged public outcry and news!), and we’re all still lucky enough to be reading it, watching it, living it.
Here’s a final “GOOD LUCK WUWT” on the transition, too!!!
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
The good folks at InformationIsBeautifulhas a regularly updated infographic on CV-19:
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
What you might find interesting for your mask-making is an item about half-way down that page entitled “Best Household Materials for a Mask.” They evaluate various materials (cotton, silk, linen, etc.) for effectiveness. Interestingly, they feel that adding a cut-up coffee filter can boost efficiency.
I can’t speak to the accuracy of the infographic, but it might provide some ideas for your “next generation” of masks. 🙂
Goat guy…
Look to rags.
I’m a ‘dinosaur’, a factory foreman.
I run the steel fabrication and painting operations for a major appliance company.
I buy cotton rags by the pallet, t-shirt rejects.
What about a mask with a clear plastic front insert that would allow the nose and mouth to be seen?
I saw some masks like this that were made for, I belive, a person who taught lip reading. The ability to see the face and nose would make it easier on people since they could react socially much better that way, when they can see expressions of other people’s faces.
I don’t know what a plastic insert would do to the efficiency of the mask. I suppose it would cut down on the air flow a little.
Moderator: I posted two comments to Javier at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3037059 that haven’t appeared. Would you please recover them?
Open thread? I can write about anything I want? I can just feel the Asperger’s taking over my brain.
The new James Bond movie is said to feature a tired, jaded James Bond who has been replaced as 007 by a Black woman. Like, come on. Why do I have to endure having a perfectly good source of fun escapism being turned into a lecture about diversity and social justice? I ain’t going to that movie, and I hope nobody else does either.
What has this to do with the climate change debate, you ask? Well, nothing. Sorry.
Ties in with the whole ‘woke’ theme. One of the extreme feminists here in Australia wants to change the names of anatomical parts that include male names or references to gods, such as ‘Adams Apple’ or ‘Achilles’ tendon. Go figure, they really need to get a life.
So what does she suggest? “Eve’s Apples”? Eve didn’t have any “apples”.
What’s next?
Will the vegans demand we change “hamstring” to “kalestring”?
Someone suggested that when your child comes up to you and says that they have a tummy ache, you should say “No dear you have a pain in your descending colon”.
The thought police are covering all bases. Slang, or pet names is part of what differentiates us as groups and makes us interesting. People and language will become so homoginised that we we all be exactly the same. Humor is being adulterated too. Bloody shame.
That’s not the only film genre that has been “woked”. Ghostbusters, Terminator etc etc. It’s mainstream now. Actors are crying “We broke!”…
I say tuff titties Hollywood!
Patrick
And, it seems to me that many of the TV series are being turned into diversity showcases with no concern for acting ability or charisma of the individual. Thus, they are no longer worth watching. Maybe the advertisers will notice.
“… is said to feature a [seasoned career professional who demands high salary] who has been replaced as 007 by a [young person whose lack of experience is forgiven partly by cost savings]”
If you just look at these things in the context of Logan’s Run all the distracting diversity and justice stuff just melts away into clarity.
“Ian Coleman July 18, 2020 at 8:21 pm”
I have read many reviews about this movie and pretty much all others, they all end up with the same conclusion. Terminator was one I had hoped would not be affected not no. Even the Terminator itself, a cyborg from the future, has been emasculated.
“come on. Why do I have to endure having a perfectly good source of fun escapism being turned into a lecture about diversity and social justice?”
This is what happens when the Left takes control of something like the movie industry or the sports industry.
The Left destroys everything it touches because to them everything is about politics. There is no escapism in marxism/socialism/totalitarianism. It’s all politics, all the time.
The Left in the United States is seeking to get every athlete in America to take a knee when the U.S. National Anthem is played before the game.
If this happens, the Left will have effectively destroyed sports in America.
I’m hoping that the sports will be delayed long enough by the virus to make those in charge of sports realize that disparaging the American National Anthem as an official policy is going to backfire bigtime on them, and maybe with a delay and after the heat dies down, the sports owners and promoters will find another way to support George Floyd and those like him.
I won’t watch a sports event where the players take a knee during the U.S. national anthem and I’m betting there are a lot of others out there just like me.
The NFL and their cowardly commissioner are rolling the dice with their stupidity about kneeling. Leave the American flag and the American national anthem out of it. Period.
Don’t tell us you are not dispareging the American flag and anthem. We have eyes and ears, we can see and hear, and we see and hear what you are doing. Don’t do it. Please don’t do it. I love football but I won’t be watching as long as players kneel and disparge the nation that gave them the chance to be on the field in the first place.
Ungrateful, ignorant so-and-so’s. I don’t take pleasure in watching ungrateful, ignorant so-and-so’s, and wont be watching them.
The NFL’s ratings fell sharply the first time they signed on to this kneeling obsenity. The next time their ratings will fall even more. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings if some conservatives went to the games and did some counter-demonstrations in praise of the American National Anthem and the Flag. Now, I would watch that! 🙂
They’re not even really left-wing are they? There isn’t so much need for real leftist politics in the USA, certainly not a voting majority, so they play the phony-left game, making up phony causes to pander for votes.
Want to befuddle a woke Progressive (I know, they come that way)? Just announce that you aren’t watching any sports whose teams do not proportionately reflect the diversity of the country.
Then watch them turn themselves into pretzels arguing that teams should be selected based on merit.
So, some thoughts from a gas mask professional. I was in the business for 17 years, my dad and I made some money, I and my six sisters have no money problems any more.
None of the fabric masks nor paper masks make an air-tight seal. The fabric masks only prevent you from infecting others, do not protect you in any way at all.
The N-95 masks used in the hospitals also do not protect the wearer, as they Leak. 3M invented a fit test, Saccharine, to show that their product could actually protect hospital workers. N-95 means that five percent of the air can be counted on to slip around the mask, and this varies hugely, lots more to a bit less.
We made legitimate half-mask, and also full-face respirators, with legitimate HEPA fiilters, also a PAPR with legitimate HEPA filters. The problem in hospitals is that the health professional cannot be heard, muffled speech, while wearing a legitimate half-mask, full-face, or PAPR with legitimate HEPA, which means High Efficiency Particulate Air filter, which is essentially an absolute filter, no particles can penetrate it. Including the virus.
PAPR is Powered Air Purifying Respirator, got a fan and a motor and a battery, flows clean air into the Full Face mask from the HEPA filter. We had the best one, battery lasted 16 hours, made money in the asbestos craze of the late 80’s-early 90’s.
3M kills hospital workers with their Saccharin fit test, shows the mask works when it does not, very leaky. I tried to fit a microphone into a good half-mask respirator and connect it to a Blue-Tooth, could work, not cheap to perform.
Do I sound like I know what I am talking about? I do….
If the patient cannot hear what the nurse, doctor, or tech is saying, problems.
Moon
Here in Australia we have the Victorian premiere advocating not even N95 rated masks for mandatory mask wearing which will be in effect soon due to the spike in COVID-19 cases. He advocates a cloth covering of the face, re-useable masks or even washable, home-made, masks. Vic has seen a few more deaths but all well over 70 years old, no details on comorbidity conditions, media assume COVID-19 the cause.
It does not appear that mask wearing is deterring spikes in cases there much if any at all. In California, cases began rising right after stricter masks rules were put into effect.
The masks mandates are being used a badges of obeisance and tests of individual compliance to government mandates.
Comply. You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
– Borg Queen.
I’ve encountered problems trying to get a air-tight seal with the cheap-yet-overpriced paper masks. No matter how much adjusting and fiddling, my eyeglasses tend to fog when I exhale into the mask. I’m sure unfiltered air is leaking past when I inhale as well. (Not to mention the accumulation of CO2 behind the mask. I hear CO2 is destroying the planet so it can’t be healthy, right? 😉 )
Put the mask as high as you can on your nose while still being able to see. Works for me. These masks are useless if the wearer is not sick! If the wearer is sick, the mask contains many if not most of the droplets expelled by sneezing, coughing, shouting or singing loudly. That is all they do. Wearing one outdoors is basically useless, and in the car too.
I think using “non-medical face coverings” for virus protection is about as medically useful as wearing a copper bracelet. But masks are “required” her for most indoor public places and public transit, and I don’t feel like being harassed by all the mask pushers out there.
“required here”, not “her”.
Meanwhile in Germany, EV shows that it does not reduce emissions.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284168363154067459
Insurance Co. will have fun untangling the ‘who’s at fault’ with this one.
Oh that’s hilarious and a bit scary at the same time. I’ve always known that once an EV battery catches on fire, it is a total b*tch to put out. But several EV’s all in close proximity to one another at a charging station and one catches on fire….chain reaction.
The Argentian and Chilenian Andes after heavy storms have up to 7 m snow, even in he Equadorian Andes up to 35 cm snow.
Sincerly Yours
Global Warming
😀
Source
Equador only 30 cm snow, sorry for typo.
It is coder here, too.
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Should the sats not pick up that the SH is cooling?
Yes, I linked two graphs yesterday, you find it somewhere in the mid of the thread.
Look for “contribution”.
Here the link to my comment in that concern
Is n t that great ?
Dont we just all like the cold?
No 😀
My chilis don’t like it cold either 😀
It is colder here, too.
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Should the sats not pick up that the SH is cooling?
One of my favorite quotes:
“I have seen this happen before, of course. We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”
– James Lovelock
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2010/mar/29/james-lovelock
Great article. That was the period when some alarmists decided to put Lovelock into their dog house. He’s outlived quite a few skeptics that would see him gone.
Now, at 101 it’s relatively easy for “journalists” to manipulate him to give statements that they can use to craft whatever narrative they wish it to be. But I personally know that he thinks the XR mob are buggers and he says that nuclear energy is the only real path to use if one is serious about reducing CO2 emissions from power generation.
Long live James Lovelock, a real scientist/inventor.
” ….. taking up a Medical Research Council post, working on ways of shielding soldiers from burns. Lovelock refused to use the shaved and anaesthetised rabbits that were used as burn victims, and exposed his own skin to heat radiation instead, an experience he describes as ‘exquisitely painful’. ” wikipedia
The continuing floods in China are now a very serious threat to the Three Gorges dam in China. Yesterday the Yangtze had a second flood wave move down the river. Waters behind the Three Gorges dam rose almost 19 meters as a result. That put the water level at the dam 16 meters (total water height of 163.59 meters) above the safe threshold with the flood waters still pushing water levels higher. A display showed that a very serious danger level is now only 11 meters away from 175 meters which is the collapse alert level, and the last stage of collapse threshold is at 185 meters total height.
So 21 more meters of water rise will bring the dam to a critical level. The rain is still pouring down in the upper stretches as new storms move into the headwaters of the Yangtze. … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-252.61,26.02,1391/loc=101.081,28.009
An interesting thought is that this major flooding is the only thing which can stop Xi Yinping in his goal to rule the world. I think that the CCP used the virus as one of their main tools to gain power in the world. They had all of their ducks in a row to do just that, and then nature stood up to say “Thou shall not pass”. How many other times in history have we seen where the best laid devious plans to control others were defeated by unforeseen circumstances driven by nature?
Floods like this mean famine. Famine means a fight for resources or warfare.
I heard on a recent news broadcast that China has quietly purchased a massive supply of corn, and soy from the US, but note how none of the left wing media reports on that. The last any of those lefty sites were talking about was how the US/Trump had been bamboozled by Xi/CCP, and hot US farmers lost money as a result. None of them have reported on this massive purchase which China HAD to make out of necessity due to massive crop losses from the flooding. There is a YT video which shows that the Chinese nations largest grain supplier (they supply 50% of the grain) has lost a large portion of stored corn to mold. Perhaps the intense rainfall was more than their storage buildings could take, but that is a significant loss of food security for the nation.
Just a thought–what if anything will stop the USG goal to rule the world???
who or what are the USG?
USG== United States Government
What planet are you living on? Trump is pulling troops out of everywhere?
Trump is trying, the deep state isn’t giving in to him very readily. My point is that the US has some 800 military bases scattered around the world. China, that global hegemon as claimed, has two.So my question to you is just which country is attempting to rule the world.
So when does having a military base mean takeover of the world. Can you think of any other possible reason?
Farmer Ch E
To cater for Americans’ insatiable desire to learn foreign languages??
JohnVC: Do these thoughts become stronger when you breathe the fumes from your ty-dyed shirt?
First we need to rule Philadelphia, Chicago and Portland.
That’d be a start. Maybe even New York and San Francisco if we’re ambitious.
Too funny at first thought, but a sobering thought upon further reflection.
Just a thought John, when did you stop beating your wife?
There are stories of Chinese and Norse people meeting in the Arctic. In any case, nature destroyed their great naval fleet about 500 years ago.
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-zhenge-he-treasure-fleet-elite-free-trade-2017-2
Oops, the article that I linked indicated the destruction of the Chinese fleet was largely self inflicted.
Here’s a better account. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/magazine/2018/07-08/china-zheng-he-naval-explorer-sailed-treasure-fleet-east-africa/
Here is the best account. Maps and lots of detail. Some have a fit about the American side of the story.
1421: The Year China Discovered America
Book by Gavin Menzies
The Emperor ordered the fleet destroyed closing China for 200 years.
The Asian Monsoons are particularly strong this year. Solar minimum related to a quiet geomagnetic conditions. Sets up June-July-August mixed Rossby-Gravity waves with a period of about 31 days that are dispersive around lat 29N. Translation: lots of rain still to come mid-August in the 3rd wave.
Joel,
Thanks for the heads up
It will be interesting to see what happens to the West African Monsoon if this forecast pattern for 27th July repeats in August.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.3;-11.1;4&l=rain-3h&t=20200727/2100
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307956420_West_African_Monsoon_Crosses_the_Sahara_Desert_in_Eumetsat_Monitoring_Weather_and_Climate_from_Space_Date_Time_08_August_2007_0000_UTC_Satellites_Meteosat-9
The China floods started with the evaporation of the warmest SST in the Pacific:
Australian academics fed up with over-paid executive at universities:
https://australianacademic.wixsite.com/website
I agree Matheus, Australian Universities most definitely need a serious overhaul. The Vice Chancellors in Australian Universities are being paid obscene amounts of money, no one is ‘worth’ 1 – 1.5 million dollars plus annually. They have become dependent on overseas students to pay the salaries of senior staff.
I read the link, there were ABC videos at the end of it. I don’t trust the ABC. They are a large part of the problem here in Australia in regard to skewed journalism. I wouldn’t trust them to report the truth.
Same with the BBC in the UK. There is a massive push to de-fund the organisation or at the very least de-criminalize not having a TV license.
Sure, I understand your point of view. But see that right-wing sites are also publicizing the issue:
https://quadrant.org.au
Open Thread.
I’ve noticed a few albino squirrels in my neighborhood the last few years.
But I’ve never seen an albino bird. (A white Cardinal, a white Blue Jay etc.)
Are there such things?
(I know. I could do a google search. But I suspect there are some here that know more than “Google”.)
Yes, there are albino crows.
As there are blackbirds, but rare.
Crows I saw the one or the other partial albino…
Forgot to mention peacocks, they are less rare, afaik.
You are right. It is getting colder. Hence the dry season is coming….
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Report about the coming drought time here:
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
Thanks for the replies.
I did do a search today for albino birds.
Pictures of lots of different albino and “partial albino” birds, even albino hummingbirds!
Still waiting to see one at my bird feeders.
PS For those of you living in Bluebird territory, it’s worth paying a little extra for the dried mealworms. It brings them right in.
PPS I saw a bird at a feeder in a local park that was a real puzzle. It looked like the Cardinals that were also feeding there but it’s head was black with no “tuft”.
After many tries to identify the bird, I finally stumbled the most likely ID.
It was a male cardinal. Cardinals do molt so it may have molted all it’s head feathers at once (uncommon). A Cardinals skin is black so that’s why the head was black.
Another possibility is that had a bad case of mites. They can clear them off their body but they can’t reach their own head.
UK double blind testing of interferon b on Covid patients has been SHOWN to reduce the requirements of invasive treatment (intubation) by 75% and to reduce hospitalisation from 9 to 6 days.
Only for the wealthy in US as this is £500 to £1200 in NHS UK Much more in US
Not yet published in peer reviewd papers and no published data yet!!!
Report about the coming drought time here:
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
Obesity alone increases ones risk of getting sicker, having long-lasting health consequences, and even dying from Covid19. The more obese, the greater the risk. “Obese” is generally defined as having a BMI of over 30. Lifestyle choices – poor diet, and lack of exercise are the most important contributing factor contributing to obesity. Of course, changing one’s lifestyle isn’t easy, however it is said that a “journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/jun/obesity-and-covid-19-can-your-weight-alone-put-you-at-higher-risk/
And no government official that I know of has said anything about obese people being very much at risk. Fat shaming?
They condemned men to HIV infection, AIDS progression, and excess deaths for the same reason. This time it’s obesity, and, of course, Planned Parent and cross-contamination in medical facilities. There are are also Progressives protesting to sustain transgeographic spread through foreign students correlated with higher tuition to their institutions.
Needless to say (but I’ll say it anyway), even if you aren’t in the obese category, any higher BMI than the ideal (for your age) means a greater risk factor. And of course, boosting one’s immunity is extra important, the greater at risk you are.
Look up the data. If you eliminate smokers from the group, the curve is very flat from low BMI out to past where I am (high BMI). The differences in mortality are well within the standard deviation of the data.
There is something more than just ‘lifestyle choices’ behind the current epidemic of obesity. So far theories have included higher carbohydrate diet, with sugar especially vilified. The video below presents a novel hypothesis in which the vast increase in consumption of polyunsaturated vegetable oils plays a role. It starts out as if it will be soft science but he gets down to the biochemistry eventually. It is a mechanism whereby polyunsaturates can actually produce hunger particularly for carbs.
Yes, it’s a vicious circle, and feeds on itself. Fructose in particular stimulates increased food intake by increasing endorphins (the pleasure response) as well as dampening release of leptin, the hormone which tells us when we’re “full”, so it’s a double-whammy. Not easy to get off that not-so-merry-go-round.
Obese people can have lower blood oxygen saturation levels (e.g., obesity hypoventilation syndrome). Showing up at a hospital with a low blood sat makes the chances of being intubated go way up. And as the chair of an emergency medical department of a major FL hospital said, “…rush intubation is game over!!“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53474445 Polar bears at risk again
All said, BS ^10
as usual and by BBC.
I saw this report earlier and have emailed the BBC and called them out as liars. Also gave them a link to Susan Crockford’s site, and suggested they broadcast a retraction. Not holding my breath.
Why are Democrats
Against securing the the Mexican border?
Against voter ID?
For universal mail in voting?
And for “sanctuary cities”.
The answer to that might be bigger than just illegal voting. The number of Reps for the House of Representatives is determined by the 10 year census. A head count of people, not just US citizens.
(Any wonder why they fought so hard against that question, which had been on past censuses, about being a US citizen?)
Gunga Din July 20, 2020 at 2:46 pm
And for “sanctuary cities”.
Thank you for that tidbit – I appreciate that.
Another moron prediction to note for future entertainment: Polar bears will be gone! by 2100:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53474445
Not moron predictions, Phil. Lies.
Susan Crockford has shown — without actually saying so directly — that Steven Amstrup has been dissembling for years about polar bears in trouble.
Susan Crockford has some comments (at the bottom) about the latest polar bear extinction stories.
———————————
Climate change ‘could wipe out polar bears in 80 years’ as melting sea ice forces them onto land and away from their natural hunting grounds, study warns
Researchers forecast how greenhouse gas emissions would impact on sea ice
Polar bears rely on Arctic sea ice to live as they use it when they hunt prey
Study found current emissions will see polar bears forced on to land to live
This will lead to severe population decline by 2100 as they will be reliant on fat reserves to survive
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8541481/Global-warming-polar-bears-disappear-Arctic-2100-study.html
Most polar bears to disappear by 2100, study predicts
Melting Arctic sea ice could cause starvation and reproductive failure for many as early as 2040, scientists warn
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/20/most-polar-bears-to-disappear-by-2100-study-predicts-aoe
Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence (By Amstrup)
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) require sea ice for capturing seals and are expected to decline range-wide as global warming and sea-ice loss continue. Estimating when different subpopulations will likely begin to decline has not been possible to date because data linking ice availability to demographic performance are unavailable for most subpopulations and unobtainable a priori for the projected but yet-to-be-observed low ice extremes.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0818-9
New model of predicted polar bear extinction is not scientifically plausible
Apparently, a prediction that polar bears could be nearly extinct by 2100 (which was first suggested back in 2007) is news today because there is a new model. As for all previous models, this prediction of future polar bear devastation depends on using the so-called ‘business as usual’ RCP8.5 climate scenario, which has been roundly criticized in recent years as totally implausible, which even the BBC has mentioned.
https://polarbearscience.com/2020/07/20/new-model-of-predicted-polar-bear-extinction-is-not-scientifically-plausible/
and yet we again see a record lowest for date arctic sea ice extent. No sign of any ‘recovery’.
Below average temperatures
Arctic Temperatures – Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North.
Way to jump in, griff. I don’t see a link, but you wouldn’t try to slip one past us. So what if all the ice disappears, polar bears disappear also? If you say the lack of ice will even reduce the polar bear population, we’re gonna need a link.
2020-07-20: First the year to date total/excess deaths.
The data is from the CDC for weeks 1 to 26 in 2020 (Jan to June). West Virginia, Connecticut and North Carolina are all missing week 26 (as usual those 3 states seem to be late reporting). But with 1,300+ data sets (52 data sets times 26 weeks) missing 3 weeks of data shouldn’t be a big problem.
For 2020 the USA has a year to date “excess death” rate about 10.5% (143,3230) higher than the previous 4 year average for weeks 1 to 26. To put that in perspective the 2017-18 influenza peaked at just over 7% so this is similar to the Asian & Hong Kong flu of the late 50’s & 60’s.
Next up the month by month total/excess death results. I ran the script for each month. All 50 states plus DC and New York City (the CDC counts it separate from New York state for some reason).
Here are some of the states making the news and entire USA for January to June:
CDC Area: Jan; Feb; Mar; Apr; May; June
—————————————————
NY State: -0.7; +1.7; +8.5; 95.1; 29.9; 28.9
NY City: -2.1; -0.8; 50.7; 442.7; 60.1; 58.5
Texas: +0.4; +3.1; +5.7; 12.7; 13.1; 10.1
Georgia: +1.0; +5.3; +5.2; 22.5; 17.1; 7.5
Florida: +2.7; +2.9; +6.0; 12.0; 11.4; 10.5
USA: -0.2; +1.4; +5.2; 36.2; 18.4; 11.6
All data from this page:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Script, data, spreadsheet & methods are available at:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fh9x5fngmfbeiiu/AAAH-OtOMqiY_R9qqG6YccCRa?dl=0
Check out your state in the spreadsheet and see how it compares.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Table 2 provides state data and shows all causes-deaths this year from February on, compared to averages for 2013-2019. The US total is only 6% over previous years, although New York City is double the previous average
Thanks a bunch for the link. Finding things on the CDC site is “fun”.
I don’t see the average for 2013-19 (7 years). Their average is based on 2017-19 (3 years). From footnote 2:
—————————–
“2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8)."
—————————–
I decided to go with the preceding 4 years for my average because I didn't want the 2017-18 influenza season to overly affect the results. Starting then will result in a lower number as it was a bad influenza season.
Thanks again.
Let’s try this with the <code> tag:
CDC Area: Jan; Feb; Mar; Apr; May; June
—————————————————
NY State: -0.7; +1.7; +8.5; 95.1; 29.9; 28.9
NY City: -2.1; -0.8; 50.7; 442.7; 60.1; 58.5
Texas: +0.4; +3.1; +5.7; 12.7; 13.1; 10.1
Georgia: +1.0; +5.3; +5.2; 22.5; 17.1; 7.5
Florida: +2.7; +2.9; +6.0; 12.0; 11.4; 10.5
USA: -0.2; +1.4; +5.2; 36.2; 18.4; 11.6
and again (used notepad this time to adjust spacing):
CDC Area: Jan; Feb; Mar; Apr; May; June
—————————————————
NY State: -0.7; +1.7; +8.5; 95.1; 29.9; 28.9
NY City: -2.1; -0.8; 50.7; 442.7; 60.1; 58.5
Texas: +0.4; +3.1; +5.7; 12.7; 13.1; 10.1
Georgia: +1.0; +5.3; +5.2; 22.5; 17.1; 7.5
Florida: +2.7; +2.9; +6.0; 12.0; 11.4; 10.5
USA: -0.2; +1.4; +5.2; 36.2; 18.4; 11.6
Doh!!! Thank you very much. I do BASH & Powershell but not much in the HTML or Markdown other than copy and paste stuff for some Jupyter Notebooks I do up.
I’ve been meaning to look up how to do this very thing on stackoverflow for a while now but keep forgetting.
I owe you beer or coffee 🙂
Well, thanks for the beer, but, in my browser I’m not seeing quite the desired effect yet! Normally the code tag respects added spaces and uses a fixed font spacing, to, well, correctly show “code”! Maybe its a browser thing, (although I tried a 2nd browser) or maybe ‘code’ doesn’t work properly on WP?
It might be this site. I tried it today on another site and it worked perfectly. I don’t know how WordPress renders and interprets HTML. One of the things that bugs me about HTML is how stuff that works great on one site/browser fails on others.
Thanks again
More than 500 comments! We must all be suffering from withdrawal and this is the only WUWT fix we can get.
I like this open thread concept, and hopefully a new one will be started every Monday morning, and ends Sunday night, every week. The downside is that after 500 comments, it becomes a little unwieldily to find others and your own comments again with endless scrolling required. But when things get back to normal with 5-6 new articles a day, it would probably be more manageable and the open thread concept is a great way for folks to introduce new ideas and be able to exchange information and will be less unwieldily with so many comments and threads.
One thing is evident and that is WUWT appears to be a wee bit addictive. That says a lot about the integrity of the site that so many of us would rather spend our time here than a million other places on the interwebs. I learn more here than I do anywhere else about many things, so that says a lot about the intelligence of the average commenter and the great main posts. But the biggest benefit is learning to think critically and be able to spot things that don’t add up, like misinformed CAGW theory, which was/is the main purpose here. Long live WUWT.
There is an easy to find what you search:
CTRL-F in your browser, and ……
search for date, name, key word, what ever 😀
…easy way to…..
super cool idea
turns out cheaper, faster, less sensitive tests may be better from an OPERATIONAL standpoint.
The basic idea is this.
PCR testing is very sensitive. It detects the virus in the early stage of detection when CT values are high
( its an inverse scale)
But the testing is expensive, and slow.
Good fast cheap, : it is Good, slow expensive.
Instead, use monoclonal antibody tests printed on little cardboard strips. cost about a buck, results in minutes. its less sensitive ( misses early positives) , but a truly infected person who tests negative
on day 1, will correctly test positive on day 2. because Mr virus is replicating
medcram
https://youtu.be/h7Sv_pS8MgQ?t=203
original video
https://youtu.be/kDj4Zyq3yOA?t=227
That is excellent Steve, thanks. I watched the original video (2nd link). We appear to be testing all wrong, catching many people at a stage where the virus is no longer transmissable, and spending way more money doing it. With the $1 test, used every day, especially in hot spots, those who are truly able to transmit the disease (before symptoms appear) could be quarantined quickly, before they do in fact, transmit to others. Contact tracing, which is mostly useless now becomes much easier and more accurate.
Quarantine the sick? Crazy thought there Bruce. We’ll just quarantine everyone because some bogus code says to. Here’s hoping sanity returns soon. A lot of people are losing their patience.
I personally know two people who went to a free testing site, filled out all the paperwork, sat in their cars for over 3 hours and left without ever taking the test. They received notice several days later that they were positive .
I suppose payment is dependent on number of tests completed but now those people could be required to quarantine for no reason.
“Good fast cheap” LOL. You forgot the second part “PICK TWO” 🙂
It does make sense and like you said if it misses on day one it will get it on day two or three. We definitely need accurate, quick, inexpensive testing.
In the tech industry we always tell the project managers to “PICK TWO” because all 3 at once just isn’t happening.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53477604 Greta wins 1000000 euro prize
Ms Thunberg said she will be donating the prize money to charitable projects that are combating “the climate and ecological crisis”.
Hmmm. It would have been far far better if she had instead donated the money to the spooks, hobgoblins, and space aliens crisis.
spooks, hobgoblins, and space aliens don’t play well (collude) with others … none of the money would get funneled back to her parents or her ….
Greta is the poster girl for the Marxist push. She is helping to devastate the world and it’s environment.
Look at all the worst of socialism and communism, the corruption and greed, the disdain of poor people. That is where we are headed.
Thanks Greta.
My bookmark for WUWT has disappeared. I cannot bookmark it again. Is anyone else having this problem?
Any ideas about this or how to fix it?
Guess on new server, with checkout and refinement of system rather than new posts … hope that’s it.
The host Ip for wattsupwiththat.com:
wattsupwiththat.com. 1387 IN A 199.16.172.80
wattsupwiththat.com. 1387 IN A 199.16.173.52
Which is part of a netblock 199.16.172.0/22 owned by pressable.com, managed wordpress hosting…
Are we there yet?
No worries, problem fixed. Nothing to do with this site.
Joe “China” Biden says if he is elected, his administration “will look like America”.
I guess this means Joe Biden’s administration will be made up of 65 percent white people, 15 percent black people, 15 percent Hispanic people, and about 5 percent “other”.
That’s what America looks like.
A biden admin will look like America if you are standing on an ivy league campus.
Rush Limbaugh was talking yesterday about the recent polls that have Trump trailing Biden.
Rush said during the 2016 elections and the 2018 mid-term elections, Republicans represented 33 percent of the votes.
Rush said a “deep-dive” was taken into the recent polls and the polls are only polling 24 percent of Republicans instead of 33 percent.
This naturally skews the polls in favor of the Democrats. This was the same thing that was done during the 2016 elections where every poll showed Hillary Clinton beating Trump.
So just be aware that you are experiencing a blizzard of disinformation in the runup to the November presidential election and polls are in the forefront. The Left is trying to demoralize Trump’s supporters by distorting the truth and making it look as bad as possible.
But the propagandists on the Left haven’t made a dent in Trump’s support. He now has about 96 percent support from his base. He had 83 percent support from his base in 2016, and that was enough to get him elected.
The Left is trying to create a false reality where Biden is winning and Trump is losing. The Left wants to believe that, and they want you to believe that, too.
Don’t take anything the Left and the Leftwing Media says at face value. They are full of lies.
They are setting up another false narrative so when Trump wins a second term they can call interference again.
They know they have a loser in Biden. C’mon, 40+ failed years in Washington and NOW he has answers?
Come on, man. Are you a lying dog face pony soldier or something? Release all the criminals and defund the police. What could go wrong?
Scissor we have a serious problem with violence in our outback indigenous community her in Australia. Our aboriginal people have extensive land rights, free education through to university (if they’d only take advantage of it), free housing, free healthcare and free travel. They also receive generous royalties from mining companies.
Getting the children to go to school is a big problem when their families don’t see why they should have to go. Subsequently many of these kids don’t speak English. It’s not like white Australians could simply learn their language as there are around 350 different dialects.
Getting a job is tricky for anybody living in remote areas, having little education and speaking little to no English makes it nearly impossible. This is why unemployment is so high in the indigenous community and why so many of them are on welfare benefits. They call it ‘sit down money’.
Alcohol was and is a huge problem in these communities to a point where limits and restricted sales were bought in. In more recent times drugs are becoming a more serious issue. Violence is rife, men and women. Some use ‘tribal’ law as an excuse for violence. They call it punishment, or retribution. We see it as brutality and murder. The numbers of indigenous people in custody is disproportionate to their population.
Many of the educated indigenous Australians who live in the cities are part of the ‘woke’ community and have views about how their ‘brothers’ ought to be treated. Most of them however have never ‘lived the life’ of their indigenous brothers.
A group was set up to develop policies for change, included in this group was the Greens (political party) and representatives of the aboriginal community. They had some interesting suggestions. Many of the aboriginals currently incarcerated should be released, if an aboriginal is arrested for committing a crime then he or she should not have to ‘make bail’, the drug ‘ice’ should be made legal and the police should be defunded.
That ought to work well.
There are a lot of things that are messed up for sure. I used to think that education was the answer.
I have a daughter down there, I’ll have to ask her more about it. Thanks for the summary.
Griff
It is quite a bit cooler here this winter and from what I hear it seems the oceans are cooling as well, especially here in the SH
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
I think that will be the cause of the coming droughts (click on my name)
You won’t stop the arctic (and Greenland) melt. It seems whole villages that the Vikingers built in Greenland are now becoming visible. It seems like it is a 1000 year thing. Maybe the movement of earth’s inner core? (as witnessed by the change in the magnetic north pole)
Hence, one of our fore fathers (ca. 1584) , Willem Barentz, was convinced of an easy passage to the east via the north. He must have read or had access to some ancient Vikinger’s reports.
Pity that people like you griff (and the IPCC) don’t want to look for that passage anymore, not even wanting to find it, like Willem did, for the good of human kind.
Is it not sad to think about the fact that what you want (more ice in the arctic ) is what cost Willem Barentz’s and his crew their lives….he was 400 years too early…..
Everything you wanted to know about Greenland’s ice sheet http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models
Well this year the Russian Northern Sea route opened up at one of the earliest dates in the last century!
I assume that’s the way he was heading… so good old William would have been sailing in clear seas under sunny, if smoke filled, skies!
It must surely be an indication that the climate is shifting warmer if year on year the sea ice declines?
“It must surely be an indication that the climate is shifting warmer if year on year the sea ice declines?”
No, it’s just weather, expect this pattern for the next 30 years. This is yet more anecdotal evidence that we are now in a typical meridional phase of a weather cycle as identified in his studies of climate history by the late Professor H.H. Lamb, the renowned climatologist. https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/byauthor/lamb_hh.htm
Warm winds from the south blow the sea ice away from the north coast of Siberia
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=71.0;124.1;3&l=temperature-2m&t=20200623/0900
creating in effect a gigantic latent heat polynya.
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/polynyas.html
R u not happy abt it?
If only Trump wasn’t such a dolt. I wish I didn’t have to vote for him. But the Dumbocrats are actually responsible for that. They still just don’t get it, that they are responsible for Trump. But Trump is really pushing his luck now with his idiocies regarding covid19.
You’re correct. Marxists are taking over the demo☭rats. They really should have their own party.
Yeah … only ‘dolts’ get the classy women and get to own their own big jets …
Red herring much?
Lose track of the plot much?
If by “the plot” you mean being truthful about Trump and criticizing him, even though still planning to vote for him, then, never.
Bruce Cobb,
Perhaps a most conflicted and tortured individual when it comes to politics? The question that must be asked is: Do you really know the truth? The likelihood, I propose, is nil.
Even given OMB’s (Orange Man Bad) demonstrated ‘track record’, you seem to be choosing the path of … high and mighty ‘virtue signaller’ … you don’t really have to do that anymore.
“But Trump is really pushing his luck now with his idiocies regarding covid19.”
yup he missed a huge opportunity to take the strongest action and take credit for the enevitable
decline in cases and deaths. Take the strongest action and claim credit for all the mild cases.
1. impose the strictest travel ban as early as possible, take credit for reducing deaths below the wildest
highest model projections.
2. on shore production of masks, How? Simple Buy and distribute to the states
http://www.hengyaoultrasonic.com/medicalmachine.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwx9_4BRAHEiwApAt0zitKlcLb1tSSscYp-UnRav0rG3UUzT-XoL8F5-moQUB4UPrDW2v_KBoCwXcQAvD_BwE
Doesnt matter how well it works, take action, early action, and claim credit for a reduction
3. Massive vitamin D distribution, is it proven? nope. doesnt matter, take the action, claim the
the credit. claim credit for all the mild cases.
4. Masks, national emergency order. Will it work? early on many democrats rejected masks,
they probably would have sued, that would be election gold today. Again, if you
DO NOTHING, every bad thing that happens will be laid at your door, and you’ll get
zero credit for the good things. Take bold action, and then
A) claim credit for every GOOD THING
B) and for bad things? well it would have been worse but for your action.
5. Get on YOUR numbers!
A) how many ventilators did you have built… every day publish the number
B) how much PPE did you distribute, every day publish the number
c) how many masks produced? every day, update the number
D) how many emergency test centers did you set up? Number, every day push it
E) how many test reagents did you ship? Every day, push the number.
etc etc etc The point is, take action, measure the output, push the number.
This is PURE OPTICS.
Trump had an opportunity to take charge, take strong action, and push numbers that show
the actual output of those decisions.
Here is the point. It is almost always the case that it is better to ACT than to not act. especially when
uncertainty abounds.
Think about this.
IF you believe the disease will just “go away” What should you do
A) Do NOTHING or very little?
B) Take action and claim credit when it does go away.
Gimme putt IF you believe it will just go away
Yes, Trump is not infallible, but at least he’s not malicious.
https://c19study.com/
China is having some very serious food issues due to the flooding and inept/corrupt managers at major granaries. … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfCKhozjF8k
And the rain keeps falling on the Yangtze River.
That’s impressive.. just about every disaster known to man (and woman and in between). If the 3 Gorges Dam breaks, it just might top them all.
The argument is made that we are in Civil War 2.0:
Civil War? What does the evidence tell you?
What has happened in the US in the last 10 years? In the last year? What has changed?
Covid felt like an attack on our countries and our way of life. If covid had not happened would we be fighting or just enjoying the summer and low unemployment?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53497193
In a separate statement, the State Department accused China of engaging “in massive illegal spying and influence operations”, interfering in “domestic politics” as well as having “coerced our business leaders, threatened families of Chinese Americans residing in China, and more”.
“We’ve now reached a point where the FBI is now opening a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours,” Mr Wray said. “Of the nearly 5,000 active counterintelligence cases currently under way across the country, almost half are related to China.”
China is taking more and more risks, threatening Chinese nationals in the US, rather than waiting for the Democrats to win the next election.
China is now, suddenly, taking unnecessary risks … rather than waiting for what it appears the fake media have guaranteed, a Democratic victory in the fall.
That is really odd. It is as if there is a deadline and this is the ramp up to the deadline.
China is unexplainably, suddenly started to taking aggressive unnecessary risks in the US, bribing US officials, openly interfering directly in the US election with anti-Trump ads, interfering to slow down covid research, and so on.
China is the only country in the world that now has a positive GDP.
The object of the CAGW plot/There is no limit to spending plot/fight over statues plot/have no borders plot/get fanatics into one US party plot/help set up cells of anarchists in the US plot/…
… is to make Democratic countries, particularly the US, ungovernable.
To create special interest groups who have impossible demands.
Economic war can be won and lost.
re: “Civil War? What does the evidence tell you?”
Did you read my caption, ” The argument is made that we are in Civil War 2.0: “? That kinda intimates the answer TO YOUR QUESTION is in the video.
But, I can give a SHORTHAND version: It’s the attack on federal property in Portland Oregon (has NOTHING to do with China*) as aided and abetted by local governmental authorities (you MAY not be up to speed on all that has taken place there is the last 55 days.) Are you familiar with what is called The Civil War in this country (the US)? Does the term Fort Sumter ring a bell?
.
.
Unless it can be shown the CPC (Communist Party of China) is providing funding to Antiday et al.
s/b: “funding to Antifa.”
Here’s a question for any virologists. Do you need to be continually in contact with multiple viruses (low viral load) in order for your immune system to remain healthy ? If yes, has all this social distancing, mask wearing and sheltering reduced our ability to cope with any virus with which we come into contact ?
A followup question might be is it even possible to not to be in contact with numerous pathogens?
Ideally, one would want to be exposed to a low Goldilocks viral load that stimulates one’s immune system. Unfortunately, like so much, this is involves much inexact science.
I’ve always thought that a little “dirt” in ones diet is a good thing. Any antibiotic cleaning substance that claims a 99.9% kill rate is very dangerous in my mind. As more and more is learned about the microbiome we all have internally, externally, and surrounded by in the world we live in , the more it appears that all those little buggers provide for the most part a very important service to our overall state of health. Not to say that for still unknown reasons that biome can sometimes get quite out of wack
From my email:
Dear All,
Very bad news. JCU succeeded on appeal.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/peter-ridd-legal-action-fund-2019
That is simply appalling … the level of lawfare only gets worse
James Cook University wins appeal in Peter Ridd unfair dismissal case
Federal court decision overturns earlier finding that the university contravened the Fair Work Act when it dismissed academic
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/22/james-cook-university-wins-appeal-in-peter-ridd-unfair-dismissal-case
This kind of “idle”.
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2020/07/22/Telescope-snaps-first-photo-of-sun-like-star-two-giant-exoplanets/4831595424065/
Telescope snaps first photo of sun-like star, two giant exoplanets
By Brooks Hays
“July 22 (UPI) — For the first time ever, astronomers have captured images of a multi-planet system featuring a sun-like star, according to study published Tuesday in the Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Photographs of the star, TYC 8998-760-1, were captured using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. Observations of the sun-like star, located 300 light-years from Earth, revealed the presence of two giant exoplanets.
“This discovery is a snapshot of an environment that is very similar to our Solar System, but at a much earlier stage of its evolution,” Alexander Bohn, doctoral student at Leiden University in the Netherlands, said in a news release.
Though astronomers have identified thousands of exoplanets, few have been directly imaged. Planetary systems with two or more exoplanets have been directly imaged twice before, but both featured stars quite different from the sun, researchers said. ”
end excerpt
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/wheeler-epa-airplane-emissions/2020/07/22/id/978422/
Sources: EPA to Propose First-Ever Airplane Emissions Standards
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is set Wednesday to announce the first proposed U.S. emissions standards for commercial aircraft, officials briefed on the matter said.
In 2016, the U.N. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed on global airplane emissions standards aimed at makers of small and large planes, including Airbus SE and Boeing Co, which both backed the standards.
The EPA-proposed regulation would align the United States with the ICAO standards, officials said, and would apply to new type designs as of January 2020 and to in-production airplanes or those with amended type certificates starting in 2028. They would not apply to airplanes currently in use.
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement to Reuters the forthcoming airplane emissions proposal – along with other emissions regulations – represented “sensible, legally defendable steps to regulate greenhouse gases, while safeguarding American jobs and the economy.”
end excerpt
Tell me again why we need to regulate CO2?
re: “Tell me again why we need to regulate CO2?”
To give SunCell ™ sales a kick in the azz?
(HEY – Its just a joke, don’t castigate me to Hades and back for it.)
“Redefining Violence in the Wake of the George Floyd Protests”
19,080 views Jul 22, 2020
Tom Abott
Seems that soon it wont be necessary to cut CO2
https://breadonthewater.co.za/2020/07/07/brrr-it-is-getting-colder/
Looks like SH is already carbon negative
LOL
William Astley, take note, as your preferred MSM outlet may not be covering this event:
“Chinese Consulate CAUGHT Frantically Burning Documents Amid Spying Charges, US-China Cold War Is Now”
Note, William, the use of the term “COLD WAR” not CIVIL WAR in the above (a distinction WITH a difference.)
would that be the consulate in Houston that was told to close immediately??? I suspect most if not all of what is going into the incinerator is pretty mundane. Keeping spy craft hanging around in hard form would be outright silly. Usually when I move after many years at the same address, it’s time to light up the old burn barrel since there is no point in dragging along old utility bills, canceled checks and all that rot.
Of course, since China is now the enemy du jure got to stoke the narrative up to full speed.
re: “would that be the consulate in Houston that was told to close immediately???”
You’re good. Let no one contend otherwise …
The Chinese communists messed up when they intentionally infected the world with the Wuhan virus.
Trump is not going to play nice with Xi anymore. It’s going to be hardball now. And it couldn’t come soon enough. Ignoring an approaching danger is not a good strategy.
The cowardly EU politicians are even getting into this game, with Britain and now France declining to do business with the CCP’s Hawei. More to follow.
And of course, we have American radical Democrats wanting to kiss and make up with the Communist Chinese.
I hear the CCP is even financing some efforts to add to the disruptions going on in a few parts of the United States right now. Before you know it, the US may be frog marching Chinese diplomats and maybe even George Soros to the lockup.
Notice I said ” a few parts of the United States” above. I did that to contrast with the lying News Media’s, including Fox News, narrative that there is violence “across the nation” as if every city in the US is on fire, when the facts are there are a handful of trouble spots while the rest of the nation is doing just fine.
And those trouble spots are all run by delusional Democrats who not only won’t help the people they represent, but actively resist allowing President Trump to come in and do the job for them. They want to call him a dictator for trying to prevent innocent people from being slaughtered. Democrat leaders belong in an insane asylum. The inmates are running the Instituions.
The Chinese communists would just love it if Joe Biden were elected president. Their problems would be solved because they already have enough dirt on Biden to blackmail him into cooperation. The Chinese communists have paid Biden and his son, Where’s Hunter, millions of dollars. We’ll probably explore that during the upcoming presidential debates, assuming Joe is up for a debate. I doubt it. Even if he shows up.
In a rational world, come November 3, all these delusional Democrats would be voted out of office. Let’s hope most of us live in a rational world, not the artificial, false reality perpetrated by the lying News Media.
The Chinese communists messed up when they intentionally infected the world with the Wuhan virus.
Do you really believe that Tom??? I know that is the claim in certain quarters, but there is ample evidence to the contrary.
John vc
The key that points to the fact that China did not care about what happened to ‘them’ meaning the world at large, lies in the fact that local airports in China were closed to traffic from Wuhan whilst intl traffic from Wuhan was allowed to carry on. They traced the infection in Italy from Wuhan….
There is also some eveidence that patient zero was a bio technician working at the relevant virus institute in Wuhan.
China was also insisting that it would be fine for students to return to our Australian Universities. There are thousands of them.
https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/06/02/nasa-scientist-dr-kate-marvel-links-climate-change-to-white-supremacy-well-never-head-off-climate-catastrophe-without-dismantling-white-supremacy-calls-for-climate-racial-justic/
I think Human-caused climate change and White supremacy *are* linked: They are both distortions of reality being used by radical Leftists as a means of gaining political power.
Go teaxs
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-coronavirus-hospitals-cases-covid-19-war-zones/
Check out the Chicago hospitals, after the bad boys prove how bad they can be.
STORY on same for Mosher (he’ll never read it tho, doesn’t ‘fit the narrative’ he seeks):
Horowitz: “Medical directors in Texas border counties: We’re treating patients from Mexico”
“We in McAllen Medical are receiving many patients from Mexico.”
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-medical-directors-in-texas-border-counties-were-treating-patients-from-mexico
Agreed, I said the same thing a week ago. Doesn’t seem to have mattered.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/15/pat-michaels-worse-than-we-thought/#comment-3037284
re:
This is more than enough to make me shout “You idiots!”
LOOK at south Texas you nutcase Mosher …. ALL the ‘mescans’ are coming across the border and filling up hospitals down there! THAT is where the new numbers are spiking!! Damn you!
https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
PICK a COUNTY like Hildalgo county down near the southern most tip and LOOK at the numbers compared to the big cities AND the counties NEAR THEM.
STORY on same:
Horowitz: “Medical directors in Texas border counties: We’re treating patients from Mexico”
“We in McAllen Medical are receiving many patients from Mexico.”
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-medical-directors-in-texas-border-counties-were-treating-patients-from-me
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-medical-directors-in-texas-border-counties-were-treating-patients-from-mexico
I don’t want to call the media and Mosher lying sacks of c__p, but they are … they will NEVER give you specific numbers where cases are ‘spiking’. No, it’s ALL for the newspaper headlines and newstories that scream FEAR and We’RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!
re: Steven Mosher July 22, 2020 at 5:36 pm
Go teaxs [sic]
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-coronavirus-hospitals-cases-covid-19-war-zones/
This is more than enough to make me shout “You ID 10 Ts!”
LOOK at south Texas Mosher …. ALL the foreign nationals are coming across the border and filling up hospitals down there! THAT is where the new numbers are spiking!!
PICK a COUNTY like Hildalgo county down near the southern most tip and LOOK at the numbers compared to the big cities AND the counties NEAR THEM. The city in Hidalgo county is McAllen.
https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
STORY on same:
Horowitz: “Medical directors in Texas border counties: We’re treating patients from Mexico”
“We in McAllen Medical are receiving many patients from Mexico.”
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-medical-directors-in-texas-border-counties-were-treating-patients-from-me
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-medical-directors-in-texas-border-counties-were-treating-patients-from-mexico
I don’t want to call the media and Mosher deceiving sacks of c __ p, but they are … they will NEVER give you specific numbers where cases are ‘spiking’. No, it’s ALL for the newspaper headlines and newstories that scream FEAR.
Don’t fall for it. Insist on the facts.
re: Steven Mosher July 22, 2020 at 5:36 pm
Go teaxs [sic]
LOOK at south Texas Mosher …. ALL the foreign nationals are coming across the border and filling up hospitals down there! THAT is where the new numbers are spiking.
PICK a COUNTY like Hildalgo county down near the southern most tip and LOOK at the numbers compared to the big cities AND the counties NEAR THEM. The city in Hidalgo county is McAllen.
https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
I don’t want to call the media and Mosher deceiving sacks of c __ p, but they are … they will NEVER give you specific numbers where cases are ‘spiking’. No, it’s ALL for the newspaper headlines and newstories that scream FEAR.
Don’t fall for it. Insist on the facts.
facts, Spiking in Hildalgo.
how can an article that tells you where be deceptive.
no, deceptive is “it will just vanish when the summer comes”
buckle up cowboy !!
https://www.axios.com/texas-governor-abbott-approval-coronavirus-5095602a-1d62-404a-9776-12879b4cf7d1.html
south texas?
hows the north doing?
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2020/07/22/we-are-desperate-north-texas-hospitals-seek-donors-of-plasma-that-can-help-the-most-critical-covid-patients/
re: “hows the north doing?”
I gave you the link for Texas; CLICK on a county up there. YOU WILL FIND outside of the BIG city of Dallas for instance the fatality figures are in LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
Collin and Denton counties showed 1 and 3 respectively for Wednesday’s fatality figures.
WP may have muffed up the link I posted – here is a tinyurl that should work:
Texas Covid-19 “Confirmed cases” and “Fatalities” by county and by the day:
https://tinyurl.com/y7f5k6ml
Click on a county (on the map to the lower left of the big bar chart) to see county data. There is also a drop-down county selector.
From the Texas Covid Dashboard as of 07/23/2020: https://tinyurl.com/wgmgues
Dallas County ALONE has more cases than the other 5 surrounding counties put together.
Is it a progressive problem? I don’t know. Something has to explain it. Whatever the answer, Dallas County looks like an outlier for N. Texas.
Dallas county pop ttl: 2,635,516
Other 5 surrounding counties pop ttl: 4,406,274
Dallas County:
Population: 2,635,516
Cases Positive: 43,026
Fatalities: 537
Deaths/Positives: 1.24%
Politics: Majority Democrat – https://tinyurl.com/y5t849eb
Tarrant County:
Population: 2,102,515
Cases Positive: 22,665
Fatalities: 304
Deaths/Positives: 1.34%
Politics: Majority Republican – https://tinyurl.com/yxkw6anm
Johnson County:
Population: 175,817
Cases Positive: 1,085
Fatalities: 7
Deaths/Positives: 0.64%
Politics: Republican in presidential election results – https://tinyurl.com/y66d45fv
Ellis County:
Population: 184,826
Cases Positive: 2,129
Fatalities: 21
Deaths/Positives: 0.98%
Politics: “staunchley Republican county in presidential elections” – https://tinyurl.com/y2qvzs25
Kaufmann County:
Population: 136,154
Cases Positive: 1317
Fatalities: 5
Deaths/Positives: 0.37%
Politics: “Starting [in] the 1984 election … a Republican stronghold …” – https://tinyurl.com/y3pux688
Rockwall County:
Population: 104,915
Cases Positive: 610
Fatalities: 16
Deaths/Positives: 2.62%
Politics: “From 1972 on … a Republican stronghold” – https://tinyurl.com/yykdz7ot
Collin County:
Population: 923,201
Cases Positive: 5614
Fatalities: 66
Deaths/Positives: 1.17%
Politics: Republican – https://tinyurl.com/yyy68huh
Denton County:
Population: 778,846
Cases Positive: 5316
Fatalities: 45
Deaths/Positives: 0.84%
Politics: Republican – https://tinyurl.com/yxs8s5gr
tell it to abbot
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/07/22/south-texas-covid-19-agony-exposes-tensions-between-gov-greg-abbott-area-officials/
Here ya go jim
Texas talk
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/07/wildly-exaggerated-chicom-19-models-are-driving-policy-decisions/
April 7 dave no concerns Middleton:
“Dallas County CHICOM-19
Population Cases Deaths
2,637,772 1,261 19
My comment
‘These dumbasses will never learn about Mr exponential.”
Today
Dallas county 43,439 cases 567 deaths.
to repeat, April 7
1,261 cases 19 deaths
AND I told you not to listen to dumbasses
Today
Dallas county 43,439 cases 567 deaths.
cases up 35X, deaths up ~30X
Dont you guys realize not to talk about variables that can grow exponentially?
Mosher–numbers are just numbers, What isn’t reported is the radical ways the reporting directives have been changed, For instance, any new positive test presumes up to 15 others have been infected by that positive testee. No matter if that initial positive test is of a person actually sick or not, Inflation is the name of the game country wide. Look behind the curtain Mosh rather than blindly believing in relation to this scam (I do agree that there is a virus running around but it ain’t the plague), and also that other scam you so dearly support.
There are some bad tests out there that give ludicrously high levels of false positives. There was one hospital in Florida that was reporting almost 100% positives and in Connecticut one test system gave in excess of 60% false positives (90 of 144).
https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/medical/state-lab-finds-90-positive-covid-19-test-results-were-false/ar-BB16Yche?ocid=sf
Mosher, surely you must know by now that numbers (like COVID19 numbers) are always THE FIRST THING the marxist-media go after to manipulate, whatever the subject is. So NO numbers from them can ever be trusted, except maybe sports box-scores.
re: “Dont you guys realize not to talk about variables that can grow exponentially?”
You’re turning into an idiot, Mosh.
I would recommend you get some perspective on this, rather than assume the ‘alarmist’ position, always.
Assuming the ‘alarmist’ position doesn’t allow objective identification of the ‘where’ (and ‘why’) this disease is presently showing up, i.e., from Mexico at present.
Did you EVEN look at numbers around Texas on that map/dashboard I supplied?
Texas Covid-19 state and county case and fatality numbers: https://tinyurl.com/y7f5k6ml
Side note. Given 2015 state-wide data (the latest I could find):
— 2015 data, fatalities, all causes —
Texas . . . . . . . . . . 518 per day (average)
Dallas County . . . 43 per day (average)
Texas Health Data
http://healthdata.dshs.texas.gov/dashboard/births-and-deaths/deaths-all-ages
You’ll pardon me if I find it difficult to listen to someone telling me “not to listen to dumbasses” when the one telling me is talking like one of the ilk he’s criticizing because of his MDS. For example, contradicting himself and citing newspaper articles making claims about data that suit his position when the REST of the time he’s asking for code and work to be shown.
Moreover, here’s you making a prediction on the 25th of June:
“Houston’s Covid-19 outbreak is accelerating at an exponential pace that will swamp the fourth-largest U.S. city’s medical infrastructure by the Independence Day holiday, less than two weeks away, a leading disease specialist warned.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/25/climate-explainer-if-humans-had-not-contributed-to-greenhouses-gases-in-any-way-at-all-what-would-the-global-temperature-be-today/#comment-302315
What really happened? I tracked it:
As of 7/5/2020, 15:15, Available ICU Beds – 1,203
opps. no independence day apocalypse massacre
What about this prediction on July 5:
“In about 20 days you will know more.. maybe 30 days since youngster last longer on vents.
some last 60 days.”
2 days left until 20, what’s happening in Texas?
opps.
Check Fatality Demographics: https://tinyurl.com/wgmgues
hey dude
‘Moreover, here’s you making a prediction on the 25th of June:
“Houston’s Covid-19 outbreak is accelerating at an exponential pace that will swamp the fourth-largest U.S. city’s medical infrastructure by the Independence Day holiday, less than two weeks away, a leading disease specialist warned.”
That’s not me.
kinda lame when your link is to someone else
Go texas
Death panels in place
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article244443257.html
lets see if cases in texas can pass New york.
re: “lets see if cases in texas can pass New york.”
Mosher, BS Artist.
Where BS Artist Mosher? In south Texas along the border states with Mexico?
What are the ‘rates’, oh wise-azz, in Mexico?
Notice, BS Artist Mosher links ONLY to MSM stories and won’t ‘delve’ into specifics of the numbers.
Only bleats ‘Texas’, repeatedly.
I invite anyone interested to take a ‘drive’ around the southern border counties in Texas and look at the stats (cases and fatlaities) owed to Covid-19 … BS Artist Mosher, not so much.
Texas state and county daily stats: https://tinyurl.com/y7f5k6ml
Is this more evidence you don’t even read your own citations before you push them? It was YOUR source article you cited as evidence, so yeah, as far as I’m concerned, it’s you:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/25/climate-explainer-if-humans-had-not-contributed-to-greenhouses-gases-in-any-way-at-all-what-would-the-global-temperature-be-today/#comment-3023152
Maybe ALL of TX cases will pass the SOLE city of NY, maybe not. Maybe it just depends on that outlier Dallas County alone. Or maybe it depends not on Texas, but on immigrants crossing the border.
What if you made a useful prediction like, “cases in texas WILL pass New york”?
Why don’t you give us something worthwhile instead of generalizing? “Oh look Mr. Exponential says cases are going to go up!” Yeah it’s a pandemic. People are going to get sick. We know that.
You don’t do useful hard numbers well though do you? E.g., what about the massacre you claimed was going to happen on the 4th of July in Houston?
“opps” that didn’t happen. I tracked it.
What about the kids? It’s one more day until 20, and there doesn’t seem to be any children dying:
https://tinyurl.com/wgmgues
CDC seems to back up that claim:
https://tinyurl.com/y4bomdx6
You remember your prediction about the kids right?
“opps”
You sound like that guy you’ve been criticizing this whole time don’t you?
Twitter evidence? Who was it that said “believing random tweets” was the “liberal standard of evidence bub”? Was that you?
Yep it sure was:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/06/venezuelan-refugees-heading-home-as-covid-lockdowns-destroy-hope-of-a-better-life/#comment-3030175
But NOW it’s okay?
“Too funny.”
“opps”
Regardless, I read the cited .pdf here: https://tinyurl.com/y697wc68
Can you find the text for me that talks about anything like a death panel? I can’t seem to locate it. I also read Eichenwald’s cited article in the “liberal standard of evidence bub” Twitter, which included this from Vasquez:
“‘There is nowhere to put these patients. The whole state of Texas and neighboring states have no ICU beds to spare for us,’ Vazquez said Tuesday afternoon during a video conference call with media.”
Huh? The “whole state of Texas” AND neighboring states??? That just doesn’t make ANY sense. I can see from the dashboard ICU beds are available all across the state. He can send them up here to North Texas, at least anywhere but Dallas County.
I want to know WHY he can’t send them elsewhere, something’s not being said here.
Maybe Mr. Vazquez is like you, an alarmist, or maybe the “journalists” who wrote the article are just progressive hacks, I’m not sure, but that claim is SURELY bogus nonsense.
Regardless, help is on the way, so let me know when those “death panels” (IF it’s even true) get instantiated. Again, from your source article:
“On Sunday, Gov.Abbott announced U.S. Navy teams will go to South Texas to provide medical assistance, including the hospital in Starr County.”
Need some help on climate change.
My background is not technical. I got a degree in Psychology more than half a century ago. Following that, I discovered there was an opening in the Infantry. After that, I’ve been in sales.
I try to read as much as I can about various issues, climate change being one of them. Unless it’s buried in one or another acronym, I have never seen a reference to the following:
A unit of fossil fuel represents biomass preserved under ground. A certain amount of solar energy is necessary to grow the biomass and a portion of that is sequestered in the fossil fuel. So it sits underground for millions of years, not heating anything.
Until it is dug up and burned. The sequestered energy escapes mostly as heat. We see an infinity of another kind of energy devoted to the CO2 which is yielded by the combustion process.
Nowhere have I seen any reference to the newly-released raw heat in to the atmosphere and its effects on the various metrics whose vagaries compel so much attention.
Is this re-found energy considered in the discussions and research? Is it too little to be of concern? Is it too complex to even begin to study?
In the last couple of days, several Fox News hosts have become very defensive when Trump’s surrogates challenge the veracity of the latest polls, including the Fox News Poll.
A couple of days ago Bret Baer bristled when one of Trump’s people challenged the Fox News poll results, and just now Brian Kilmeade, on Fox and Friends, bristled when the White House spokesman again challenged the Fox News poll results.
Then Steve Dusy, another host on Fox and Friends, said the controversy was because President Trump (and others) questioned the fact that the polls did not include the same percentage of Republicans that actually voted in the last two national elections. And he left it at that which I thought was telling. He didn’t deny that Fox News was undersampling Republicans for the Fox News poll.
During the 2016 and 2018 national elections, Republicans represented 33 percent of the vote. When these dishonest pollsters do their polls, they undersample Republicans, with Republicans only representing 20-24 percent of those polled. There is a lot of difference between 20 percent and 33 percent. If you want to skew a poll on way or another, that’s one way to do it. That’s what they did in 2016, and that’s what they are doing now.
Don’t believe anything the Leftwing Media is putting out. Everything they do is geared toward trying to oust President Trump. No lie is too egregious if it accomplishes this goal, as far as the Left is concerned.
I have a small calculation and would like to invite comments:
According to
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0815-z
“Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades”
…the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade.
The paper states that the likely reason for this extra warming “caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific”
The global temperature trend over the last 3 decades was likely under 0.2 °C/decade
Antarctica covers about 10% of the Earth surface and I believe for driving he warming there you would need at least a similar source, so I say at least 20% of Earth´s surface must have warmed by this rate (ignoring uncertainties):
x* 80% + 0.61 °C/decade * 20% = 0.2 °C/decade
with x being the maximum possible global warming due to CO2
(and you can make a similar but smaller in numbers argument about the above average warming near the North pole and possibly even the sun being more active in the last 100 years than the centuries before that)
=> x < 0.1 °C/decade
Does this single paper really put such a constraint onto the possible warming from CO2 in the last 3 decades?