Arctic’s ‘Hottest Day’? Not So Fast

Midsummer madness takes many forms. The combination of seasonal heat and light can produce eccentric behaviour when a global virus is hogging the headlines, such as the tendency to ramp a single yet-to-be-confirmed temperature measurement at a remote location – this time in northeast Siberia – into a climate scare.

Guest post by Michael Kile,

Consider the media reaction to an alleged 38C reading on June 20, 2020 – “around 100 degrees Fahrenheit on the first day of summer” – at Verkhojansk, a Russian town ten kilometers inside the Arctic Circle (66°33′48.1″ north latitude), population about one thousand. It was like striking a match in a room full of hydrogen at the Hyperbole Club. From Helsinki to Kilkenny, from Scotland to Geneva, London and beyond, the MSM and Twitterati went wild with climate-angst (here, here and here).

Introducing the “unbelievably superhot” event on BBC’s Science in Action program five days later – Record high temperatures – in the Arctic – the presenter said: “It’s out of the covid-pan and into the global warming fire.”

Steve Vavrus, a University of Wisconsin climatologist, was one of the guests. Asked whether he was seeing “trends in the duration or regularity of these kind of persistent weather ratings”, Vavrus was even more emphatic. 

Steve Vavrus: This is connected to global warming. We’ve seen record warming for many years, if not most years of this decade. We know the Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the rest of the planet. One of the most important things to remember about this Arctic heatwave we’re experiencing right now is that it’s really not a fluke event. It’s an exclamation point on a long-term Arctic trend.” (7 min.)

BBC: Exclamation point – or shriek-mark – as I think the punctuation is popularly known in the US.

Yet Verkhoyansk, ironically, has exceptionally low winter temperatures and an extreme subarctic climate, one dominated by high pressure cells.

The lowest temperature recorded here was −67.8 °C (−90.0 °F) on February 5 and 7,1892; or January 15, 1885, if the plaque above is correct. Only Antarctica has recorded lower temperatures: its lowest at ground level is −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F), at the Vostok Station on July 21, 1983.

Verkhoyansk’s average monthly temperature ranges from −45.4 °C (−49.7 °F) in January to +16.5 °C (61.7 °F) in July. Mean monthly temperatures are below freezing from October through April and exceed +10 °C (50 °F) from June through August. It has never recorded a temperature above freezing between November 10 and March 14.

According to Wikipedia, “June, July, and August daytime temperatures over +30 °C (86 °F) are not uncommon” here. The warmest month on record is July 2001, at +21.9 °C (71.4 °F), at least until this year. The average annual temperature for the town is −14.5 °C (5.9 °F).

If the June 20, 2020 temperature of +38.0 °C (100.4 °F) is confirmed, it would produce a record annual range of 105.8 °C (190.4 °F). Only Oymyakon, Yakutsk, Delyankir and Canada’s Fort Vermilion have ranges higher than 100 °C (180 °F).

The reading was trumpeted as “the highest temperature above the Arctic Circle ever recorded”. That Verkhojansk is a two-hour stroll – on land – inside it rarely got a mention.

Most commentators, predictably, went for a “global warming” angle. Few mentioned the g-word: geography. AccuWeather’s Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel was one of them.

Dave Samuhel: Verkhoyansk has an incredible climate….The landlocked nature of the town is the main reason the temperatures are so extreme in both directions.

There is no body of water to bring milder air in. This works the other way in summer, being landlocked, so no cooler marine air can get in either.

The location also receives sunlight 24 hours a day from May 30 through July 14, so the temperature is able to continue to rise so long as colder air from the north doesn’t blow in. (Lauren Fox, AccuWeather, June 23, 2020)

On the same day, June 23, the World Meteorological Organisation’s “fast-response evaluation team” announced its “tentative acceptance” of the observation “as a legitimate observation”. However, it was – and is – still awaiting official confirmation from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet).

Siberia had been experiencing “exceptional heat, with temperatures up to 10°C (18.5 °F) above average in May and driving the warmest May on record for the entire Northern hemisphere and indeed the globe”.

Randall Cerveny, WMO’s Special Rapporteur on Weather and Climate Extremes, also issued a cautionary note.

Final information on whether this record maximum is for the whole area of the Arctic northward of Polar Circle needs to be assessed when more complete weather data is available.

Once WMO receives confirmation of the temperature from Roshydromet, it will then refer the finding for verification by a team of investigators for its Global Weather and Climate Extremes Archive (WWCEA). This provides details of global, hemispheric, and continental extremes (heat, precipitation etc).

As part of the verification process, WMO is contacting the Russian meteorological agency to collect direct information on the observation (such as the actual data, the type of equipment used, the quality-checks and calibration of the instrument, the observation monitoring techniques, the correspondence to surrounding stations, etc.)

“Those data will then be very carefully examined by an international panel of atmospheric scientists. Fundamentally, these evaluations are very thorough and time-consuming projects.

(WMO media release, June 23, 2020; “Reported new record temperature of 38°C north of Arctic Circle”)

WMO had not verified claims for the “highest temperature recorded north of Arctic Circle” in the past. However, “this extreme observation has garnered enough interest [in the media] that we are currently studying the creation of such a new category” for WWCEA.

Dr Cerveny, also professor of geographical sciences at Arizona State University, has been the WWCEA rapporteur – or record gatekeeper – since its formation 14 years ago.

On June 24, author Nick Lavars reported: “Arctic Circle records 100 degree temperature amid Siberian heatwave”.

The temperature was logged on June 20 by scientists at a meteorological station in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk, and usurps the previous highest temperature recorded at the facility of 37.3 °C (99.14 °F) in 1988. The station has recorded daily weather readings since 1885. (New Atlas, here)

The latest record, then – again assuming it is accurate and verified – is only 0.7 °C higher than that recorded here 32 years earlier, which to a reasonable person hardly seems to justify the current excitement.

Fortunately, the concept of tendency evidence can assist us unravel the kerfuffle. In law it is used to prove that a person (or organisation) has or had a tendency to (i) act in a particular way; or (ii) has or had a particular state of mind.

Tendency evidence allows a jury – or reader – to reason that: he (she, they, or it) did it before; he (she, they, or it) has a propensity to do it; so the likelihood is that he (she, they, or it) did – or would do – it again: namely ramping a single yet-to-be-confirmed “record” temperature measurement into an international climate scare.

Care must be taken, of course, to distinguish “tendency evidence” from “coincidence evidence”, that is evidence which uses the improbability of two or more events occurring coincidentally, to prove that a particular act was performed while in a particular state of mind.

A reasonable person also might suppose that weather data – especially if it contains a “record” temperature – would flow (i) from the Verkhoyansk recording station to Roshydromet; (ii) from Roshydromet to WMO; and (iii) from WMO to the MSM and public, in a similar way that covid-19 data flows to WHO, the World Health Organization.

Weather data, however, is different. Here is a provisional reconstruction of the Verkhoyansk data-flow for the week of June 20, 2020. It is subject to revision if and when more details are released by WMO, or uncovered by a cyber-sleuth.

Exhibit A: On June 20, Mika Rantanen, PhD, an extreme weather and climate change researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute tweeted:

Verhojansk, a Russian town in East Siberia known for its exceptionally cold winters, just broke its all-time heat record with a whopping 38.0°C (100.4°F)! Records kept since 1885. #ArcticHeatwave

Dr Rantanen included a map (below). He did not mention Verkhoyansk’s “landlocked nature”, or the halo of lower temperatures surrounding it.

Exhibit B: On June 20, 2020, Scott Duncan, a meteorologist in Scotland, Gàidhlig speaker and bagpipe player, retweeted the Rantanen tweet with this comment: “Just in… Blimey, that’s a big record to fall.”

Exhibit C: On June 21, 2020, Niall Dollard of Kilkenny Weather, Ireland,tweeted:

Verkhoyansk, Russia at 67.57 north has reported an incredible maximum temperature today of 38.0 C If verified, this is not only a record for the station but also the highest temperature ever observed north of the Arctic Circle. @AssaadRazzouk

Mr Dollard’s tweet included agraph of temperature readings apparently “obtained from Verkhoyansk (Yakutia, Russia)”. A black arrow points to the 38C reading, yet there is a red dot immediately below it at about 31C. What is going on here? Are there two readings for this crucial day?

Assaad Razzouk, one of Mr Dollard’s followers, was so excited by the news he tweeted:

Sorry to harp on (yet again) but this is historic: Verkhoyansk, Russian town in Arctic, reported an astonishing temperature today of 38.0°C (100°F) – not only a record but also likely highest temperature EVER recorded north of Arctic Circle

h/t @kilkennyweather #ClimateCrisis twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/… (June 21)

For clarity: Freakish warming in Siberia = Melting Arctic = melting permafrost = continuous release of methane, potent greenhouse gas + continuous release of microbes frozen for hundreds of thousands years = more climate change + more pandemics. (June 22)

More on Siberia’s incredible, astonishing warming: Verkhoyansk, a Russian town in Arctic Circle was at 45°C (113°F) on 19 June 45°C in the Arctic 45°C in the Arctic 45°C in the Arctic Here I am, screaming: IT’S CLIMATE CHANGE, STUPID. (June 23)

Exhibit D: An online search of recent Verkhoyansk weather data – here – did not confirm a reading of 38C for 20 June 2020. The temperature on that day varied between 14C at 4am and 36C at 7pm. Weather today here

Exhibit E: On June 22, an unnamed person posted this message on UNFCCC’s Twitter account:

Temperatures reached +38°C within the Arctic Circle on Saturday, 17°C hotter than normal for 20 June. #GlobalHeating is accelerating, and some parts of the world are heating a lot faster than others. The #RaceToZero emissions is a race for survival.

Exhibit F: Scott Duncan again:

Oh my. Never thought I would see the day… The UN have just used my graphics. Heat will be in the news a lot this week (June 22)

Exhibit G: On June 23, the United Nations used the event to resuscitate its climate-scare campaign in a covid-19 world: Extreme weather ‘record’ likely in Arctic Circle, says UN weather agency WMO

Clare Nullis, WMO: The WMO is seeking to verify reports of a new temperature record north of the Arctic Circle. It was reported in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk amid a prolonged Siberian heatwave and increase in wildfire activity. WMO news video.

There was a tweet from Secretary General António Guterres too:

Temperatures in the Arctic Circle appear to have reached a record high over the weekend. Our planet is sending us a clear warning. The need for immediate and ambitious #ClimateAction is more urgent than ever. https://twitter.com/WMO/status/1275001460464418816 …

UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

An intriguing photo (above) simultaneously appeared at the UN Climate Change site. The caption read:

aerial view of melting glaciers on King George Island, Antarctica. This latest report of an Arctic temperature more typical of the Tropics comes a few months after the Argentine research base, Esperanza, on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, set a new record temperature.

Wherever and whatever it is, it is not an aerial view. Antarctica is not the Arctic. As for the controversial Esperanza case, it is still awaiting resolution by WMO’s panel of WWCEA experts six months later.

See: Antarctica’s ‘Hottest Day’? Not so Fast

Is the same game being played here? The Esperanza station is on an island outside the Antarctic Circle. Verkhoyansk is just ten kilometers inside the Arctic Circle. Yet both results have been hyped to give an impression that the “record” temperatures there – even if verified – somehow represent the geographical area inside each Circle.

Exhibit H: On 29 June, Dr Rantanen tweeted a link to an article published in Nature Climate Change the same day: Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades.

An “ensemble of climate model experiments” apparently has shown that, over the past three decades, the South Pole – presumably continental Antarctica – “experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average.” Given the continent’s average temperature, it will be some time before it melts away.

The average annual temperature ranges from about −10°C on the Antarctic coast to −60°C at the highest parts of the interior. Near the coast the temperature can exceed +10°C at times in summer and fall to below −40°C in winter. (Australian Antarctic Division, February 18, 2019)

This “recent warming” apparently lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. Who would have thought there was an “intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability”; or that such “atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior; or that it “has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century?” (Perhaps the answer lies behind NCC’s paywall.)

Exhibit I: On 2 July, 2020, in Geneva: a new “environmental dialogue” focusing on the Impact of #COVID19 on #Climate Science, with WMO, IPCC WG I, II & III, and UK (COP26).

Your Honour, my argument is simple. God has fashioned us in such a way that our original sin from birth is a craving for attention. Yesterday’s hipsters are today’s hypesters. The phenomenon is perversely apparent today in many fields of endeavour, from street-fighting to meteorology and climate science.

As Professor Cerveny has said, if “the truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time.” 

For example a “fat finger” error such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth’s climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.

One swallow may not a summer make, but two clangers at opposite ends of the Earth can make a climate alarmist’s dream – or nightmare – come true.

Michael Kile

1 July 2020

80 thoughts on “Arctic’s ‘Hottest Day’? Not So Fast

  1. I already exposed that media fueled lie a week ago, since the official reading for that day was actually 97F, it has to this day NEVER been updated to a higher number.

    Here is a link to my argument with Nick Stokes, who apparently can read invisible numbers…., (sarcasm).

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/23/climate-change-temperature-hits-100-degrees-above-arctic-circle-just-like-100-years-ago/#comment-3021808

    and,

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/28/100-degrees-in-siberia-5-ways-the-extreme-arctic-heat-wave-follows-a-disturbing-pattern/#comment-3024731

    =====

    I posted the link to the official data for the city in the above links.

    12 days later 97F is still the listed official high for the date.

    • The timeanddate.com statement of 97 degrees F says its source is CustomWeather. I went there, they said they provide historical data, bI went to their page where they say they do, but I couldn’t get historical data. Can someone provide a link for getting this directly from CuastomWeather?

      Also, the timeanddate.com mention of 97 degrees F matches the highest they show of readings they show that were taken 3 hours apart, with the 97 degree one being taken at 7 PM local time and the second highest one of 96 degrees F being taken at 4 PM local time.

      • I can’t answer that part, but after 12+ days of “verification” process the 100F statement remains unsupported.

        LOL, surely it shouldn’t take more than hour to verify simple temperature data (if it exist), but golly still no reported verification after 13 days, yet we are supposed to believe that 100F happened anyway…..

        “Exhibit D: An online search of recent Verkhoyansk weather data – here – did not confirm a reading of 38C for 20 June 2020. The temperature on that day varied between 14C at 4am and 36C at 7pm. Weather today here”

        I think 100F is a made up number.

        • The Exhibit D result of varying from 14C at 4 AM to 36 C at 7 PM is, as stated, from timeanddate.com. What they reported was readings 3 hours apart, which is not all of the data from that day.

          As for the amount of time being taken to verify the 38 degree C (100.4 degree F) high temperature for that place for that day, this requires WMO receiving answers to questions they asked of Russia.

      • So it would appear that the Arctic is warming faster than anyplace else in the world
        Similar Antarctica where it is also warming faster than any place else in the world

        • Everywhere is warming faster than everywhere else ! What part of “climate crisis” do you not understand ? 😉

  2. VIDEO: 10min: 1 Jul: Sky News Australia: Reformed climate activist condemns ‘terrorising school children’ with false science
    Presenter: Chris Kenny
    He says the science has been hijacked by a “handful” of activist scientists who are spreading “science fiction”.
    “The majority of scientists are not activists, there are actually only a handful of scientists who feel the need to terrify people,” he said.
    “I don’t think this is really that complicated, we need to lift everybody out of poverty, and we need to do our best to preserve natural places and things have just spiralled out of control.
    “This climate change thing has just got too crazy.” …

    Shellenberger said he had noticed a “dark tradition” of anti-human rhetoric spilling from climate change activists, including views that humans were a “cancer” or a virus. In the second half of the interview – which will air on Sky News Australia on the Kenny Report at 5pm on Thursday night – Shellenberger also weighs into whether climate change was a significant cause of the Australian bushfires.
    “Yes there is evidence of that,” he said. “However, It is massively outweighed by two factors; the accumulation of wood fuel in the forests and the development of new houses near forests.
    “Is there some contributing role of climate change? Yes. Is it very significant? No”.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6168491756001

  3. Siberia is a bear. The extremes in the data are huge.

    In general folks should ignore daily data. tells you nothing.

    This goes double for Siberia.

    If you read something that mentions “it was COLD today, or it was HOT today, ignore it.
    if you read something that just reports on one station and doesnt have an actual posted data file…
    ignore it

    • I agree with Steven. Still it should be mentioned that the historical monthly high temperature records in this town are all from more than 20 years ago, with the only exception of March and now June. So 10 out of the 12 months in the year have temperature records set more than 20 years ago. In some cases, more than 70 years ago.
      Like Steven says, this means nothing… but if we wanted to make it mean something, it would mean that there has not been much of a warming in that place in the last 20 years. Which is the opposite of what the media sold.
      Data here: http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/climate/24266.htm
      June record not updated there yet apparently, as it is not yet official.

      • The extreme highs are not increasing as much as monthly average temperatures are. This is true not only in Siberia, but in most places. Most of the US is warmer than it used to be, even though the alltime record highs in DC and most of the 50 states were set in or before 1936.

    • What’s up, Mosher!!! Whole sentences? Proper grammar? Common sense? Clarity of meaning?

      Someone’s in a relaxed mood today!

      • Presumably you think all these qualities are good. Why don’t you just thank him for the post instead of posting bile?

        Mosh’ is one of the most informed posters here. On the occasions he does take the time to provide data or make coherent arguments , that is most welcome.

        Dumb rock + smart ass != smart rock

    • If you see something averaging a bunch of different stations together, ignore it.

  4. Funny that the heatwave is happening just when we have reduced our “CO2 emissions” due to the Covid thingy

    If we keep up reducing the emissions the arctic will be boiling by 2030 or so.

    • We might have reduced the CO2 emissions by some few ppm (wow!) but most importantly, not many planes in the sky forcing mid-day cloud cover. Maybe actually more sun made it to ground and heated the place.

  5. Lot of hot air.
    Dominic Cummings wins £100m to save planet by sucking CO2 from air

    An experimental plan championed by Dominic Cummings to tackle global warming by “sucking” carbon dioxide out of the air will receive £100 million from the Treasury.
    The technology uses chemical filters to capture carbon dioxide from the air. Once filter is saturated it is heated to 100C.
    According to academic research, the technology is incredibly expensive and requires tremendous energy. For each one tonne of CO2 captured, it costs £500.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-wins-100m-to-save-planet-by-sucking-co2-from-air-8qv3mzjx8

    • I wonder how much “Once filter is saturated it is heated to 100C.” CO2 is created in that process?
      Then of course they will have to transport it and bury? it.

      These people have never heard of the rule of diminishing returns

      • It would be a lot cheaper and more efficient just to plant a tree. Unfortunately, 14 million trees in Scotland have been chopped down to make way for wind farms.

      • Respectfully disagree.
        Dominic Cummings is currently the British Government while Mr. Boris Johnson is his public, media and parliamentary spokesman.

          • Hi Ian
            Sadly none of the above. I don’t smoke; friend of BoJo?! regretfully not (rem. my younger brother is also called Boris), but I did vote twice for him as the Mayor of London and numerous times for his party, however not important to any degree to be elevated to the privilege of his friendship.
            Although I might qualify for the DC’s club of ‘weirdos and misfits’ somehow I missed that boat too.
            All the best, keep safe.

      • Once again, uncertainties are being ignored and no Null Hypothesis test has been performed to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the two readings. Both numbers are being thrown around as if they are absolute, instead of being measurements subject to error. Climastrologists seem to be innumerate, despite often citing numbers to support their claims.

    • problem is Nick you are probably not using the correct flat earth map as some do here!

      The article seems to say the result is not valid because the measurement is at a landlocked site. But they seem to ignore the fact that it has always been landlocked. Therefore surely the landlockedness has been consistent for all temperature measurements and so the record remains. Or am I mistaken and at some point there was vast lakes near the site in the recent past?

    • FWIW, here’s the Google Maps link to what looks to be one of the two major intersections in town https://www.google.com/maps/place/67%C2%B032'59.8%22N+133%C2%B023'16.5%22E/@67.549936,133.38573,280m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m14!1m7!3m6!1s0x5b9579da63386d09:0x1dda69f74af67b40!2sVerkhoyansk,+Sakha+Republic,+Russia,+678530!3b1!8m2!3d67.5505925!4d133.3993399!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d67.5499356!4d133.3879242

      Which puts it — with, I’m pretty sure, far greater precision than is warranted, at 67.549936N, 133.38573E, 280m

      • Awesome thanks Don. Now if we can find the location of the actual station, we can probably point out its in an urban heat island . It appears the whole town is one large thermal anomaly, especially the three dark regions which appear to be coal yards. I’m sure the grassy/woody tundra 2km outside of town is 10C cooler than the bare rock ground in town every sunny day.

        • As Anthony Watts has so ably demonstrated, many weather stations are improperly sited, leading to incorrect readings. What do we know about the siting and history of these stations? All kinds of words are being wasted when we don’t know if the differences are statistically significant or if either the Alaskan or Siberian stations were reliable measurements.

        • I agree entirely that the weather station appears to be at an inadequate site, likely subject to unwanted urban heating. It is not at all appropriate to compare temperature readings at present with times past when very few people lived at this site. This has been one of the predominate concerns I have had with all the scientists contending that the Earth has warmed, and of course most of them go on to conclude that as POGO said, we have seen the enemy and the enemy is us’ Incorrect, in my view, and the real cause for yes some warming, is and has been the Suns greater activity over the past many decades. This thus far is the overwhelming cause of the climate warming. Furthermore, to pick one or two isolated cases (erroneous) as they appear to be, is what is called cherry picking, taking an example or two and making outlandish claims such as Global warming as caused by humans. Thank-you, Rod Chilton, climatologist.

  6. If I follow you correctly the record high temperature is invalid because it is a landlocked station?
    So all previous lower maximum temperatures were made when the station was not land locked and therefore were cooled by the surrounding water?

    Do you have proof that the water disappeared giving rise to the temperature (high record) as measured this year?

    • I think you are reading it wrong. It is NOT that the record is invalid because of it being landlocked. What he means is that the record is not representative of the arctic as a whole, because of the location being landlocked. Neither the record nor any other “normal” temperatures of that place are representative of any other thing than themselves.

    • Nobody here cares what you say or think, which makes you a troll. A life-wasting, boring, predictable, single-issue, wilfully blind, half-runt troll.

      Begone, troll!

  7. Is this somehow proof of something? A tell tale sign maybe? or an exploitable nothing burger?

    Look here dummy, scientist says, getting hotter, told you so, now believe it, no more questions, job done. Next.

    The point on the planet that we’re supposed to be getting excited about is actually in the Guinness book of records for having the “greatest recorded temperature ranges”.

    They go from -68°C to 37°C (apparently now 38°C). wow! (not /sarc, that is a mighty range)

    This link gives a good layman’s overview of the climate in that neck of the woods, I learnt a lot.

    https://weatherspark.com/y/143301/Average-Weather-in-Verkhoyansk-Russia-Year-Round#Sections-Temperature

    Anyone remember 3 years ago, July 2017, Greenland…….. ?

    The coldest July temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere at -33°C.

    My concerns have of course been duly heightened.

  8. On the other hand a “fat finger error” that types 38 in place of 37 is also likely, but much harder to spot at the quality control step.

  9. The dearth of water/humidity in these areas to provide moderation results in temperatures hopping around like mad. There is little reference to this here.

  10. If we don’t stop making CO2, Siberia, Alaska and Canada might become habitable. Why don’t we make a supreme effort to prevent that tragedy?

  11. Dear Michael Kile: fact check!

    At the beginning of your post, you state “Verkhojansk, a Russian town ten kilometers inside the Arctic Circle”, with the word “ten” italicised for emphasis.

    The Arctic circle is currently at 66.56083° north. Verkhoyansk is at 67.5506° north. According to my coordinate converter app, that puts Verkhoyansk 110.308 km inside the Arctic Circle. To re-phrase your sentence correctly:

    “Verkhojansk, a Russian town a hundred and ten kilometers inside the Arctic Circle” – perhaps not worth italicising.

    Whereas: Fort Yukon, Alaska, where the former 100° F was recorded, is at 66.56767° north, with puts it only 762 metres inside the Arctic circle.

    Your arguments and supporting data are fine, but please let us get the facts straight. Those of us who are climate skeptics claim to have the moral and scientific high ground, so we must be careful with facts. Any factual error could be seized on by alarmists (some of whom are scientifically literate) to discredit us.

    • Well done smart Rock.

      Julian Marshall, BBC News, 27 June 2020, please note. I am sure I heard him say “ten km inside the Arctic Circle.” Made a note of it at the time.

      Professor Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, was his guest on that day.

      All I want for Xmas, is a coordinate converter app.

  12. Regarding Exhibit D, readings reported by timeanddate.com : Timeanddate.com only mentions readings taken three hours apart, apparently at multiples of 3 hours from midnight universal coordinated time. They did not report what the temperature at that place was at any times between 4 PM and 7 PM local time.

  13. From the post…”…Vermilion have ranges higher than 100 °C (180 °F).”

    Mayhaps you meant (212 F)?

  14. IS IT JUST POSSIBLE THAT, DUE TO THE WARMTH, SOMEONE BROUGHT OUT AN ICE CREAM VAN TO SELL ICE CREAM TO THE HOT INHABITANTS, AND PARKED IT IN THE WRONG PLACE?

    REGARDS

    DUDLEY HORSCROFT – APOLOGIES FOR NOT NOTICING I HAD ACCIDENTALLY HIT THE CAPS LOCK! SHOUTING NOT INTENDED.

  15. Regarding the Exhibit C graph with a dot well underneath the highest one: I would like to see a source for this graph, because its 7 PM and 4 PM local time readings are different from the ones stated by timeanddate.com, the source for Exhibit D.

  16. Michael Kile, the author of this article, said: “Verkhojansk, a Russian town ten kilometers inside the Arctic Circle (66°33′48.1″ north latitude)”.

    I Googled for the latitude of Verkhoyansk. I found figures clustered tightly in a range of 67 degrees 33 minutes to 67 degrees 34 minutes north latitude. Google and Google Maps say 67.5506 degrees north, which is 67 degrees 33 minutes 1 second north latitude. Wikipedia says 67 degrees 33 minutes. 66°33′48.1″ is the latitude of the Arctic Circle, and 67 degrees 33 minutes is .9866 degree of latitude or about 109.5 kilometers farther north.

  17. Take care not to fall into the trap of aiding the Left’s strategy to create a subconscious connection, in the public’s mind, between COVID and ‘climate change’.

    • There is a connection – computer models that are off by orders of magnitude.
      (Rant) and the postmodern Marxist goal of replacing western capitalism.

  18. Extreme values tell you very little about the underlying distribution. Unlike the mean, extreme values are not a “consistent statistics”.

    Recent Siberian warming is certainly significant as reported by Norwegian climatologist, Ole Humlum (http://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_May_2020.pdf). It is accompanied by significant cooling over Canada.

    Even so, this warming is not evidence of “Climate Change”, i.e. of Anthropogenic Global Warming. If the models had predicted such local warming in advance, then that would be evidence, but I know of no such prediction.

    As solar declination decreases we have already begun the 40,000-year-long journey into the next Ice Age. Note that during previous Ice Ages there were two Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, the Laurentide Ice Sheet over Canada and the Fenno-Scandian Ice Sheet over Scandinavia but there was no Siberian Ice Sheet. No-one seems to know why. No-one seems to know why the present Siberian warming is occurring either.

    • Over recent decades as opposed to recent months, both Siberia and Canada (as well as Alaska and Scandanavia) near and north of the Arctic Circle have warmed more than the world as a whole. Meanwhile, the extra warming in and near the Arctic was correctly predicted by the models – they got something right.

  19. “The lowest temperature recorded here was −67.8 °C (−90.0 °F) on February 5 and 7,1892; or January 15, 1885, if the plaque above is correct.”
    Both dates are correct. February 5 is according to the Gregorian calendar, but pre-revolutionary Russia was still having the old Julian calendar, so in Russia it was January 15. Remember the Soviet revolution in 1917? It was called the October Revolution. It took place November 7, 1917. But in Russia it still was October because they had the Julian calendar

  20. Meanwhile at Verkhoyansk Russia 14 Day weather forecast on timeanddate.com it is raining with the day temperature range of 4C to 15C.
    Back to situation Normal.

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