By Rud Istvan
Since respected ‘experts’ like Dr. Fauci are saying there is no return to normal until an effective vaccine is widely available, I thought I would use my hard earned infectious disease knowledge, (previously explained in Wuhan post #1) plus a day of new research to provide a WUWT synopsis of at least a present partial state of play, deep diving on two of the US most promising vaccine candidates. (There are at least 8 promising vaccines in active global development; too many to globally cover in detail in this guest post.)
Vaccination
The true origin was from Dr. Jenner in 1796, when he observed that a mild cowpox infection protected from deadly smallpox infection, and then tested that observational hypothesis on 8 year old James Phipps before his (now ethically unthinkable) variolation. See www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC1200696 for the details of this miracle. Older American smallpox vaccination shoulder scars are merely the scratched sites of your single mild cowpox infection vaccination, no different than young James Phipps in May 1796.
The general vaccination idea is to alert the immune system (both B cell humoral antibodies and T cell killer systems, if possible) to pathogen antigens without triggering the actual disease. If the disease pathogen does later arrive, the immune system is “primed” to defeat it rapidly. Many deadly diseases have been mostly defeated thanks to vaccination, including smallpox, polio, pertussis, measles, mumps, rubella (MMR), …
The antivaxxer canard that MMR vaccine causes autism goes back to a very small sample scientific scandal by a crooked British gastroenterologist, explained in detail in the Coincidence chapter of my ebook The Arts of Truth. Short medical synopsis: the digestive tract has little to do with brain function. Short coincidence synopsis: autism does not manifest before 18 months of age, and only sometimes thereafter; until then the brain is still ‘sculpting’ connection/removal of neurons. (A blind ‘lazy eye’ is one physical example of this early neuron sculpting process.) It so happens that pediatricians recommend MMR vaccination at around 18 months to 24 months, when autism can first manifest.
There are at least two insurmountable potential Wuhan vaccine problems.
- Some vaccinations last for a lifetime (smallpox). Others do not (chickenpox/shingles partial lifetime, tetanus ~5 years). We dunno what might be the case for Wuhan.
- Viruses, especially RNA viruses (see rumination #1) mutate. That is why the annual flu vaccine ranges from good to bad. The vaccine targets three or four of the most commonly circulating flu varieties from this year, for next year’s vaccine. The problem is that the virus is always mutating, so by the end of next year what is circulating is mostly mutations of the types last year’s vaccine missed. We do not know yet the rate of Wuhan mutation. It appears maybe less that influenza, but we already know of at least 40 mutations, plus a less virulent US West Coast strain directly from China, and a more virulent East Coast strain imported from China via Italy. (Why Gov. Cuomo said NY had a European virus problem.) So how good the coverage of a possible Wuhan vaccine might be is also a speculation.
Wuhan
It is an enveloped single stranded positive sense RNA virus. It has three neutralizing antibody targets: capsid N protein, and the S1 and S2 sites on the S spike protein. See rumination #6. With careful antibody selection, these can provide exquisitely good antibody test/vaccine targets. The newly EUA approved Abbott antibody test is 99.6% sensitive and 100% specific! (See rumination #6 for the HUGE beneficial significance of this new Abbott antibody test development compared to the Becton-Dickenson test announced a month ago.)
But except for a canine enteric coronavirus vaccine (Merck Animal Health), which does NOT protect against the canine respiratory form of the same virus, there has NEVER been a successful coronavirus vaccine developed–ever. So despite Dr. Fauci’s hopes and efforts, that may well remain true with Wuhan. This is a risky uncharted business with significant economic consequences.
Vaccines
There are in the US at least two interesting and very different initiatives. What makes them scientifically interesting is that they both come from new science ‘vaccine platforms’. That is, a more general purpose scientific/laboratory system that pre-existed Wuhan, enabling faster specific vaccine development.
The fastest, and IMO riskiest, platform is Moderna Therapeutics, who have finished Phase 1 and just got FDA EUA permission to go into Phase 2 testing in humans. (For the uneducated about formal FDA stuff required by the statutory PFDA Act of 1906 as later amended–and renamed the FDCA–EUA means Emergency Use Authorization (cutting regulatory corners), Phase 1 is a few tens of humans primarily for safety, Phase 2 (which can have A dose ranging and then B efficacy subparts) in more humans (hundreds), and then Phase 3 where the P2A/B selected dose is tested for safety and efficacy in many (thousands), which if it works and is safe eventually leads to FDA legal approval).
The Moderna platform was conceived only for viruses. In this case, it is using synthetic messenger RNA (mRNA) from Wuhan, hoping that the immune system will respond to the injection of those foreign nucleoside entities with neutralizing antibodies. They were fast because they already had the RNA platform, so as soon as Moderna got the Wuhan RNA genetic code late January, they could identify likely antibody targets.
Unfortunately, the just passed Phase 1 safety trial COULD mean it simply doesn’t work at all. Moderna has never gotten a vaccine approved off its platform despite being founded in 2010. Maybe this time will be different. Whether if successful they can scale production is unknown—the CEO just said that if approved, its vaccine would be limited in quantity.
The other big US platform is J&J’s Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Their platform has also been developing for several years, and has two components. They have a genetically modified human common cold adenovirus (AdVir) that is used as a vaccine genetic carrier. The adenovirus modifications mean it CANNOT anymore replicate in humans; it just delivers DNA. (Remember from my post 1, adeno is only 5% of common colds, but is a DNA virus.) Plus, a human derived special (epithelial?) cell line where the modified adenovirus can rapidly replicate in large (1000 liter) bioreactors to make lots of vaccine ‘virus’ carrier” fast despite not in humans. They have used this platform to develop potential vaccines for Zika, RSV, and HIV, all in Phase 2-3 testing. So a lot of the background human FDA sciency/safety viral carrier stuff has already been done.
They used this platform to insert a variety of Wuhan potential RNA (transcribed as DNA) immune system targets into AdVir in late January (the transcribed DNA replication versions of the RNA viral messenger protein(s) fragments, hopefully), then used animal testing to select a primary vaccine candidate plus two backups for further “transcribed DNA’ animal testing now ongoing. They hope to be in humans (skipping platform unnecessary Phase 1 safety) in September, and say they could be producing millions of doses monthly by early 2021. This, IMO, has a good chance of succeeding given both the platform and the process they are using, despite the fact that it is a DNA, not RNA, genetic viral system. Maybe our immune systems do not care in which form the viral genetics are presented. We can hope.
Concluding Remarks
This is complicated stuff. We are seeing some of the best of modern science (genetic sequencing, Moderna, J&J) and some of the worst (Neil Fergusons’s Imperial College epidemiological model garbage coding) on display at the same time. As said before, analogies to ‘climate science’ are legion. As a simple coding example, naive infectious rate R0 is both an input and an output in all epidemiological models depending on personal behaviors. (Naives, self-distancings). BIG math model PROBLEMs unsolvable except by beliefs
Rud Istvan, thank you for this and other essays in this series.
About this: Short medical synopsis: the digestive tract has little to do with brain function.
You ought to research that a little deeper. Or just drop the whole sentence.
Doesn’t MIGAL have a vaccine for poultry corona viruses ?
And if we don’t chicken out …
😉
Yes. Please see above.
Just for the record… The seasonal flu vaccine effectiveness over the last 10-years has ranged from a low of 19% to a high of 60% (source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm ). Most people I have talked to can’t believe it’s really that low.
I don’t get flu vaccines, but they are why flu deaths were low between the 1976 and 2017 seasons, then low again in 2018-19 and this just passed. Of course this season was also low because many who might have died of flu instead succumbed to coronavirus.
There is zero evidence that vaccine is EVER useful.
All the evidence in the world shows that flu vaccines are effective if geven for the right strain. Viral evolution makes it hard to guess right, however.
Both Influenza A (infecting birds and mammals) and B (just humans and seals) viruses mutate by antigenic drift and reassortment with reckless abandon.
There is “evidence” the flu vaccine protects against the common flu. How is that possible? It isn’t. These have nothing in common. Being vaccinated is a predictor of not getting the flu, period.
You felt for that con. We are not surprised.
We? Hope you don’t have a tapeworm. Or multiple personalities.
Flu vaccines work on the strain for which they’re formulated.
You could read up on test results.
Maybe you should provide that evidence that the flu vaccine sometimes work to authorities. Only you have seen it.
NG,
Please read the trials conducted before flu vaccine was approved.
Those who approved it read the same studies as I. You could too.
After decades of use, even the promoters of the flu vaccine admit they have zero evidence it works. Each year the same excuse, we have no time to do proper work.
CDC gives mixed results from 17% to 54% efficacy. Placebo is about 30% (IIRC) which is right in the middle. So, It guess it depends on what “it works” means. It probably has some effectiveness if the Flu that you are exposed to it one you’re vaccinated for. But it’s a numbers game, and there are downsides of the vaccine too, depending on what they are putting into your body.
Knowing what I learned over the past few months, I am sticking to nutrients to make it difficult for viral replication and nutrients that bolster what god gave me. We should all be extremely happy to have learned about viruses and how they take hold, and what we can do to mitigate their menace in our bodies. I am overjoyed!
I am not an anti vaxxer, I just choose not to put things into my body that give it stress I don’t need… plus the extra mercury is an issue too. Though they changed the name to a brand name thimerosal to hide the mercury issue, it’s still in there. My doctor told me they no longer use mercury, because there is a new thing they use called thimerosal. She did not know, until I educated her, that the active ingredient in thimerosal was mercury… Doh!
Mario,
I’m pro-vax, but also don’t get flu shots, since their effectiveness depends on getting the right strain. The low overall effectiveness reflects so often not getting the right strain, not effectiveness when the vaccine is for the correct strain.
I think you make sense, and that is the thing. We always get last year’s strain at best, whereas South America gets the current strain. So, it’s always a guess, as we are getting a strain no more current than the length of time it takes to develop and scale it.
If they get despondent or discouraged about such low efficacies, let them know that they get an increased chance of GBS as a bonus with each jab.
Rud, please do forgive me.
not meaning to be mean but must do this…
Since “respected” ex-perts like Dr. Fauci…
there corrected… 🙂
Could not resist it, for the best of me… kinda of your “fault”… 🙂
In my understanding, Dr. Fauci is an expert academic gangsta… of the worst kind possible there.
Sorry if we may happen to disagree in this one.
cheers
See http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC1200696 for the details of this miracle.
********************************************
link does not work can someone fix please? want to read up on that item.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/
Just google pmc1200696. It will take you to the ncbi.nlm.nih archive containing the paper with that identifier. Or just google Jenner vaccination. The paper shows up in the first few links.
The article has errors. Some are trivial, as in misspelling “Montagu” and “Nelmes”. But importantly, it repeats as fact the milkmaid myth invented by Jenner’s friend and first biographer, Dr. John Barton. Young Jenner learned about the immunizing effect of cowpox from his boss Daniel Ludlow, who belonged to a medical society which met at Gloucestershire’s The Ship Inn.
At a meeting in 1765, Ludlow heard from fellow member Dr. Fewster that his farmer patients who had previously caught cowpox didn’t get sick when he inoculated them. Ludlow imparted this information to his apprentice.
Milkmaid patient Sarah Nelmes (not that spelling was standard in 1796) was however of course real. The hide of the Gloucester cow Blossom is held by Jenner’ med school alma mater in London and her horns by the Jenner Museum in Berkeley, Glos.
Little is known of the later life of perhaps unwilling hero, human guinea pig James Phipps, son of Jenner’s gardener.
The truth about the fake milkmaid’s tale was discovered Massachusetts-born Oxford historian Art Boylston, MD, descended from 1721 Boston variolator Dr. Zabdiel Boylston.
“The antivaxxer canard that MMR vaccine causes autism goes back to a very small sample scientific scandal by a crooked British gastroenterologist”
Zero evidence of fraud.
OTOH we have a provax study by a FBI MOST WANTED felon and you have nothing to say in that.
Read my book. Several million £ worth of evidencd of fraud behind the withdrawn paper
What about the FBI MOST WANTED provax researcher?
If ONE vaccine critic was crooked, so be it. Either way I don’t care; makes no diff what so ever.
But I believe people have rights. Do you support kangourou courts?
What about all the provax crooked/demented people, like those who write crap on the CDC website, that not even a 11 years old would believe?
Why do you even mention the autism controversy? What causes autism?
From the resident Forbes provax shill Emily Willingham (who is to vaccines what Rachel Maddow is to the deep state):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywillingham/2015/08/10/hey-interpol-i-found-your-autism-researcher-fugitive/
But Thorsen not being “first or senior author” on the provax study apparently makes the story irrelevant, or something. Cause we all know only “first or senior author” can commit fraud and can be accused by their co-authors when something fishy is found.
Regarding this short synopsis comment:
“Short medical synopsis: the digestive tract has little to do with brain function.”
Hasn’t there been some research saying gut bacterial have a more important role?
https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/microbiome/gut-might-modify-mind/97/i14
I know this is a survey article but I’m genuinely curious as your posts are always well thought out and scientifically rigorous.
Thank you,
Caroline
Are we supposed to wait for a vaccine while being trapped in a lockdown ? Knowing that no vaccine has ever been successfull against any previous coronavirus ?
I hope there is an alternative way to get rid of this virus :
According to Johan Giesecke, from 98% to 99% of the Swedish population who is infected barely notice it or have mild symptoms.
Thus, the best (and as for now, the only) way to get rid of this virus seems to get group immunity. As far as I know, apart in northern Italy, there have been no ICU shortage reported (and BTW, the strict lockdown did not solve this problem), neither in Sweden without lockdown.
Actually, nobody knows what is the needed infected percentage to achieve gorup immunity for a given population. Some says 60%, others between 10% in rural areas to 30% in high density towns.
In all the confined situations that have been studied (Diamond Princess, French and US aircraft carriers, homeless shelters in New York or in Boston, ship going to Antarctica, etc.) the percentage of infected people never exceeded 30 to 40%.
Periodical randomized tests seem to be the right thing to do in order to estimate the group immunity percentage in a given area. This has to be done in each area (where population density and behavior are specific).
Random tests in Stockholm showed a week ago that 25% of the population has been already infected. Hopefully, Sweden – at least Stockholm -will get out of this mess in a few weeks.
It should be very interesting to know the percentages of people that have been infected in most of the areas in order to know where we are and how far we are from the end of the tunnel at a global scale. Without those data, we are actually completely blind with respect to this epidemic.
My only hope is that most of the lockdowns were completely useless so that we did not delay group immunity.
“Are we supposed to wait for a vaccine while being trapped in a lockdown ? Knowing that no vaccine has ever been successfull against any previous coronavirus ?”
I would say no, don’t wait. Hydroxychloroquine will set you free.
A different approach to a vaccine (not debating use of vaccine yes or no, just different approach)
https://www.newsbreak.com/washington/seattle/news/0Obo8bcg/inside-a-seattle-lab-working-to-develop-a-covid-19-vaccine
Modena Therapeutics has got approval to go to phase 2 trails, for their mRNA ‘vaccine’.
The mRNA approach has the potential to cut the time to develop a ‘vaccine’ and cut the time and cost to produce to manufacture the ‘vaccine’.
“On May 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) completed its review of the Company’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application for mRNA-1273 allowing it to proceed to a Phase 2 study, which is expected to begin shortly.”
If I understand the science, their mRNA virus like entity, infects human cells and gets the human cells to produce a “prefusion stabilized form of the covid-19’s Spike (S) protein and it is this replicate of the Spike protein that …
… evokes a response from our immune system.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-receives-fda-fast-track-designation-mrna-vaccine-mrna
About mRNA-1273
mRNA-1273 is an mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 encoding for a prefusion stabilized form of the Spike (S) protein, which was selected by Moderna in collaboration with investigators from Vaccine Research Center (VRC) at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the NIH.
The potential advantages of an mRNA approach to prophylactic vaccines include the ability to combine multiple mRNAs into a single vaccine, rapid discovery to respond to emerging pandemic threats and manufacturing agility derived from the platform nature of mRNA vaccine design and production. Moderna has built a fully integrated manufacturing plant which enables the promise of the technology platform.
That vaccine is going to k!ll those vaccinees who go on to actually a real SARS-CoV-2 infection. The immune system in the lungs can’t easily be fooled with such approaches.
But Modena will have litigation shielded by Congress. So they’ll be able to take the money and run-away Scot-free when people start dying because they got their vaccine and then got a much worse case of COVID-19.
This is another reason for avoiding CCP-19 vaccines. SARS vaccines had a nasty habit of killing the vaccinated animals when they were later infected with SARS.
And that’s before you consider the research into vaccines to make people sterile.
Joe,
Your comment “The immune system in the lungs can’t easily be fooled with such approaches.”
The immune system will be trained to recognize the covid’s unique spike protein. So the immune system in the lungs will not be fooled
I would assume you are lamenting the end of traditional vaccines. While science goes on and costs and effectiveness goes up. That is progress.
You simply do not understand a complex system that is our immune system and anatomical locations.
Go ahead, you take the mRNA vaccine or the chemically-inactivated virus vaccine. See what happens then when you get the real CoV-2 infection. There are other immunologists who are making these same warnings about the real potential for immunopathology from these vaccine modalities.
The makers will be selling it under immunity from liability litigation granted by Congress. They’ll take the money and run off scot-free.
With luck, Oxford’s vaccine will be approved first. Monkey trials were successful. Human trials have begun.
AZN is already making the vaccine, so as to have 100 million doses ready by year-end. The company says they’ll sell it at cost as the pandemic lasts.
Wuhan virus
Do you mean A/Wuhan/359/95
or
B/Beijing/184/93
or
some other random virus attributed to china
or
SARS-CoV-2?
“Even finding a covid-19 vaccine won’t be enough to end the pandemic: If coronavirus persists, the volume of vaccine available in coming years is expected to fall far short of global demand” By Christopher Rowland, Carolyn Y. Johnson, and William Wan | May 11, 2020
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/11/coronavirus-vaccine-global-supply/?rid=110502
“If SARS-CoV-2 establishes itself as a stubborn, endemic virus akin to influenza, medical experts say, there almost certainly will not be enough vaccine for at least several years, even with the unprecedented effort to manufacture billions of doses. About 70 percent of the world’s population — or 5.6 billion people — will probably need to be inoculated to begin to establish herd immunity and slow its spread, scientists say.
“Yet the nationalistic priorities of individual nations could thwart the strategic imperative to tamp down hot spots wherever they are on the planet — including poor countries that cannot afford the vaccine. The United States in particular could be left in the cold if vaccines developed here as part of a go-it-alone approach turn out to be less effective than those produced in China or Europe.”
China and Europe are different cases. Whatever the Chinese do, they are liars. Any vaccine they come up with should not be distributed in the US until it goes through the full normal FDA process. Second, I do not believe that China is developing a vaccine. The demographic of the diseases’s primary victims is one that they are just as happy to see die because they do not have effective ways of providing income or health care to the elderly. Third, European pharmaceutical manufacturers all have major US operations, they cannot afford to slight the US. I think a couple of European pharmas moved their research operations to the US because lunatic environmental and animal rights regulations in Europe made research impossible there.
* * *
“The scenario public health experts fear most is a worldwide fight in which manufacturers sell only to the highest bidders, rich countries try to buy up the supplies, and nations where manufacturers are located hoard vaccines for their own citizens.
“The model of countries thinking only of themselves is not going to work. Even if you’re living somewhere that’s somehow perfectly without any infections, your best efforts to fight the virus are going to fail unless you shut off all your borders and trade,” said Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, a public-private partnership that helps provide vaccines to developing countries. “This is a global problem that requires a global solution.”
I, for one, have absolutely no concern. If we have to complete the border wall, that is a good thing in my eyes. When I was young and first went outside of the US, I was required to carry a yellow card proving that I had been vaccinated against small pox. If we have to do the same thing for Wuhan Flu, it is zero problem. The entire notion of global problems is triple distilled nonsense when discussing diseases. Diseases occur one person at a time where the victim is located.
If you want an example look at polio. the vaccine was devised more that 60 years ago, is very safe, and is orally administered. Yet efforts to wipe out polio all over the globe have failed, because in certain locales which are not afflicted with the curse of whiteness and where the locals receive all of their information about the world from the learned hierophants of the best religion in world history have told them that the vaccine is the product of infidels who are trying sterilize them.
* * *
“In the United States, the federal government agency in charge of emergency vaccine development indicated it is prioritizing domestic concerns — an “America First” mentality that has shaped much of the Trump administration’s pandemic response.
“Right now, we’re focused on the whole-of-America approach required to expedite the availability of vaccines,” Gary Disbrow, acting director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), said in an emailed response to written questions from The Washington Post.”
At least they understand the their first obligation is to the the taxpayers who fund them. I find their attitude commendable. if that is due to Trump, than it is a point in his favor.
* * *
“Another risk: The United States might not be well positioned if the best vaccines end up coming from other countries or international collaborations — such as a development and manufacturing cooperative that world leaders pledged billions toward this month at an online event the Trump administration skipped. A Trump administration official said this month that the United States supports such efforts despite skipping the pledge event.”
Is this more like Paris CO2 pledges or NATO defense pledges? They are all utterly worthless. I am glad the US skipped that waste of electrons.
* * *
“Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development who worked on the U.S. government’s response to international disasters in the Obama administration, said that “we need to lay the groundwork for global vaccine sharing now, before we know who is the winner.”
““It’s basically negotiated — there’s not a global framework or protocol, there’s not a preexisting framework about how to do this,” Konyndyk said. “What we don’t want is a situation of haves and have-nots, based on either who gets vaccine to work or who has the production capacity or who has the wealth.”
What you mean we? White Man.
As an American we have worked hard for our wealth and power. We have been exceedingly generous with them. And, the world, which should be grateful is, as a necessary law of human nature, resentful. The he11 with them.
If we develop a vaccine, we get it first. The beneficiaries of Federal largess are obligated to do that. If somebody else develops it, we can license it and produce it for ourselves. Nothing we do deprives others of an opportunity to do the same thing. I am sure that America will be generous with its products, but it must be just before it is generous.
* * *
“Much of the international outrage during the H1N1 swine-flu pandemic 11 years ago centered on supply contracts Western governments secured with vaccine manufacturers. The United States, under President Obama, had contracts in 2009 that entitled it to 600 million doses, The Post reported at the time, a huge share of potential global supply.” . . .
Like most international outrage this was confined to a small cadre of leftists. as far as I am concerned they can choke on their outrage.
* * *
“Triple-drug combo of anti-malaria pill hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and ZINC improved coronavirus patients’ chances of being discharged and cut death risk by almost 50%, study finds”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8309337/Zinc-hydroxychloroquine-effective-COVID-19-patients-study.html
“And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for you meddling HCQ!”
quote: “Zinc itself has antiviral properties and past research has suggested it may reduce the time people suffer from common colds.
Rahimian believes that, when used to treat coronavirus patients, it is the zinc that does the heavy lifting and is the primary substance attacking the pathogen.
Hydroxychloroquine, on the other hand, acts as an agent that transports the zinc into cells, increasing its efficacy, he suggested.
‘Zinc is an easily available, well-tolerated medicine to use with few side effects so if there is a possibility it might a benefit, that is appealing,’ Rahimian said. “
Rud,
Why not simply use a killed virus vaccine? It can’t have any more side effects than the original virus.
Or take the existing virus and run it through another animal to produce a live, attenuated virus? This might give better immunity.
Or, consider “variolation”. Inoculate people with a very small quantity of the west coast variant of the live virus. This would probably give the best immunity, with the most risk.
These approaches all have proven track records. It seems like because we have all this DNA/RNA tech we feel compelled to use it. While ignoring a whole lot of past experience.
The problem with the DNA/RNA technology is that it is a whole lot less predictable than working directly with the virus. We have already “accidentally” tested the virus on millions of people.
The tricky part is inactivating viral RNA without damaging the antigenic bits, such as the virion’s spike proteins.
No, the huge problem with inactivated-virus vaccines for deep lung pathogens is immunopathology. That is making the actual infection with the real virus then turns out much worse for the vaccinee.
The RSV vaccine fiasco of the 1960’s taught us that. Immunopathology is basically going to throw an asthma attack on top of lung infection from a SARS-CoV-2 infection for many who get an inactivated virus vaccine. The lungs are immunologically unique anatomical location. The immune system cannot be overreactive in the lungs because we are constantly breathe-in crap, but we can’t have an immune response to everything. Thus getting a proper immune response that won’t induce immunopathology when the real virus strikes will require a live virus vaccine.
The reason the annual influenza vaccine works at all is because we all have pre-existing immunity from past influenza infections, thus we have a developed T cell response to influenzas A and B. So the annual flu vaccine only tweaks a new B-cell response to provide new antibodies to the expected 3 flu strains circulating to go along with the memory T cell response we already have. The parts that T cells “see” don’t change like the surface parts that antibodies bind to that rapidly change season to season with flu strains.
Thanks.
Makes immunological sense. Sad we had to learn the hard way.
I don’t know what method the Jenner Institute uses, but they’ve started human trials. Maybe they’ve developed a weakened strain of the virus, starting with the milder type.
In which case it would technically not be a vaccine but a varioline.
Oxford’s virus is made from a weakened chimp adenovirus, so it is a true vaccine.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/1DD9C2B0-952D-11EA-8340-95FDE6EE78E0
Hope the link works.
With SARS-2 spike glycoprotein added.
Interesting! But:-
“There are at least two insurmountable potential Wuhan vaccine problems.”
A contradictory sentence. More accurate would be:-
“There are at least two potentially insurmountable Wuhan vaccine problems.”
Is it possible that some people may have a natural immunity to ‘flu viri?
To my best recollection, I have never had influenza and I’m now age 88. Worked in large offices with high people density.
Typically, have had a 3 or 4 day cold every few years, and once as a young man, pneumonia- cured quickly with an antibiotic.
In Germany they spoke about a possible 34 % backgrounnd immunity probably because of the corna cold virus.
According to Italian prof/researcher after number of thousands tests of Covid-19 infected:
– if asymptomatic: no antibodies developed and no future immunity
– if mild disease: ditto
– if severely affected by disease: antibodies present and possible immunity but not guaranteed.
There is strong evidence that mild to moderate symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection does in fact result in an IgG response.
A published study of 1,300 Corona virus patients in NYC showed this.
IgG is a correlate of long-lasting immunity. IgG is a T-cell dependent process. And if you have T cell response, you will have a pool of memory T cells form to provide protection for years to decades.
“The same fluctuation held true for New York City, where the study found that 21.2% of respondents had COVID-19 antibodies on April 22. Five days later, that number went up to 24.7%. But the May 1 report found that 19.9% of New York City participants had the antibodies. What does it mean? The governor sees the infection rate drop as a good sign. “You don’t want to see that number go up,” he said.”
I would expect that percentage would rise, or at least hold steady for long period of time. Cuomo’s comment makes no sense.
Above quotes are from the interview of Andrea Crisanti by the BBC news.
Crisanti is an Italian professor of Microbiology at the University of Padua. He previously was professor of Molecular Parasitology at Imperial College London and a former director of the department of infectious diseases at the Italian institute of health -wikipedia.
citation please
bbc-news-channel, 13 May, 19.50 UK time
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/10318089/bbc-news-channel
“This content is not available in your location”.
Is the Italian prof/researcher a TV-only personality, or does he/she publish?
This is not what most of serologic studies say.
Hi Agamemnon, perhaps Cassandra was telling the truth after all, but i have no idea, just quoting what prof Andrea Crisanti said to the BBC news channel.
Either way, it may take longer than one May before science is finally settled on this one.
So how does that square with the places finding several percent of the population have antibodies? Did they all get severe cases and not notice?
Is a vaccine against COVID-19 needed at all? People who are not in high risk groups might be able to self-immunize by getting a small dose of virus in a safe way – touching a door knob in a public place, then their noses or lips.
If they get seriously sick, there is HCQ+AZ/Zn/etc.
People in the high risk groups should stay away from the infection, or might possibly try preventative HCQ+Zn regimen.
It might not always work according to an Italian research, see my comment just above.
Goldstein
You recommended, “… touching a door knob in a public place, then their noses or lips.” The trouble is, one might also get an STD while they are at it! 🙂 I don’t know where else I could find such sensible medical advice as I do here.
Goldstein
It just occurred to me that it might be faster to just lick the door knob.
I wish you would not call the British pediatric gastroenterologist “crooked.” You are perpetuating another myth. He never claimed that a vaccine caused autism. He was extremely careful with good science.
Wrong. He did, in return for ~£750 from the his crocked Law firm. Read my book details.
Some timely news:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/sitting-in-a-freezer-for-years-potential-sars-vaccine-now-ready-for-coronavirus-trial/ar-BB142ueO
The mRNA vaccine, the DNA vaccine, and the chemically-inactivated virus approaches are going to kill people with immunopathology, that is if they get one of those vaccines, are naive for a live SARS-2 infection, and then some months later get the real SARS-CoV-2 infection deep in their lungs.
Immunopathology means they are going to much worse off than if they hadn’t received one of those vaccine. Th2 eosinophilia in their airways will be the presentation at the same time their deep lungs are fighting the corona virus infection. Th2 eosinophilia is essentially sever asthma. That will be the immunopathology. That was exactly the lesson of the RSV vaccine fiasco in the 1960’s. ANd it’s going to get repeated with one of those vaccines.
Probably 1/2 the field of human T cell immunologists are screaming that immunopathology message with those vaccine approaches. And the other half just sees $$ signs at being part of the effort to be the first to market with a licensed vaccine…. even if it kills people the next cold season when this COVID-19 roars back. They’ll take their money and run, and Congress will pass legislation protecting the vaccine industry from lawsuits from those deaths.
There are two vaccine approaches being pursued right now that are likely to succeed. One is Merck’s live, attenuated VSV vaccine, similar to what is now being used for Ebola and very effective at immunizing against that deadly virus. The other is adenovirus (live, but replication deficient) vaccine being developed out of the NIAID(NIH)-Rocky Mountain Labs in Hamilton, MT.
https://www.trialsitenews.com/rocky-mountain-labs-an-elite-niaid-laboratory-taking-on-sars-cov-2-few-know-much-about/
The one with the highest probability of eliciting a long-lasting immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is Merck’s VSV approach. But it’ll be patented. The Adenovirus/SARS-2 vaccine construct out of RML will likely be effective as well, but at a much lower price point for the billions of doses needed around the world.
So many errors. First “the digestive tract has little to do with brain function” – Wrong
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29903615
Second “Some vaccinations last for a lifetime (smallpox).” – Wrong
Of the last 3 people infected by the accidental lab release 2 had been vaccinated but it was 10+ years before. It does NOT provide lifetime immunity.
ya famous book called the second brain
Steven Mosher
May 13, 2020 at 6:31 pm
A “Second brain.”
Definitely a “brain”, with a full “neural” network within a cell and each and eeveeryy cell… go figure. 🙂
cheers
We need to cut through the medical fog of war. We have a natural ‘cure’ for Covid virus fear.
If we correct our population’s microbiological deficiencies, we can make them immune to covid.
Our system has been hiding an unimageable important medical ‘breakthrough’ and an unimaginable scandal where a large portion of our population are deadly deficient in ‘Vitamin’ D and Zinc.
Because there are three substances to optimize and the body needs all three things at higher levels to work, we have never discovered optimum body operation. We tested one thing at time and did not fund testing of the other two.
Vitamin D deficient people are 19 times more likely to die from covid than the less vitamin D deficient people. And we know the elderly are deadly deficient in Vitamin D.
The high supplement level ‘Vitamin’ D tests (4000 UI/day and above) found that a high percentage of the population is deficient in magnesium so they added magnesium to the with ‘Vitamin’ D cohort.
This enable the human biological systems which the proto hormone ‘Vitamin’ D turned on to work. Magnesium is required for the body to work and Vitamin D is required to turn on the systems, this explains why the low level ‘Vitamin’ D supplement tests had failed to show, correcting the human ‘Vitamin’ D deficiency, cured most cancers and common diseases.
In addition, we know non-vegetarians are severely magnesium deficient.
And we know vegetarians are severely zinc deficient and the elderly are deadly deficient in Zinc.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150323142839.htm
Zinc deficiency linked to immune system response, particularly in older adults
“When you take away zinc, the cells that control inflammation appear to activate and respond differently; this causes the cells to promote more inflammation,”
Of those 65 and older, closer to 40 percent do not consume enough zinc, Ho said. Older adults tend to eat fewer zinc-rich foods and their bodies do not appear to use or absorb zinc as well, making them highly susceptible to zinc deficiency.
Download PDF – MDPI
http://www.mdpi.com › pdf
Nutrients 2015, 7, 8199-8226; doi:10.3390/nu7095388
Magnesium in Prevention and Therapy
Epidemiological studies in Europe and North America have shown that people consuming Western-type diets are low in magnesium content, i.e. <30%–50% of the RDA for magnesium. It is suggested that the dietary intakes of magnesium in the United States Nutrients 2015, 7 have been declining over the last 100 years from about 500 mg/day to 175–225 mg/day. This is likely a result of the increasing use of fertilizers and processed foods [5,9,22–24].
The United States NHANES 2005–2006 survey reported that nearly one half of all American adults have an inadequate intake from food and water of magnesium and do not consume the estimated average requirements (EAR) (set at 255–350 mg depending on gender and age group) [27,28].
A chronic magnesium deficiency (serum magnesium <0.75 mmol/L) is associated with an increased risk of numerous preclinical and clinical outcomes, including atherosclerosis, hypertension, cardiac arrhythmias, stroke, alterations in lipid metabolism, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis as well as depression and other neuropsychiatric disorders. Furthermore, magnesium deficiency may be at least one of the pathophysiological links that may help to explain the interactions between inflammation and oxidative stress with the aging process and many age-related diseases [5,7,11,22,27,29–34].
Magnesium oxide is not well absorbed and acts as a laxative. Magnesium citrate is better. Magnesium can be absorbed through the skin via epson salts.
Thank icisil. I have heard the same.
What the ‘high’ ‘Vitamin’ D researchers found while researching calcium, is the vegetarian portion of their cohort who were not magnesium deficient were regulating calcium to maintain biological optimum.
The meater’s were all magnesium deficient. Their body’s were not regulating the calcium.
So what they found was severe Magnesium deficiency meat eaters.
So what has happened is the Medical industry has infiltrated the specification for Minimum Daily Requirement of ‘Vitamin’ D as it is a very, very big money maker for them.
The lower our ‘Vitamin’ D level is the sicker we get. Also we become overweight and have balance problems. And we get type 2 diabetes.
When ‘Vitamin’ D levels are increased (from below 20 ng/ml to above 40 ng/ml with Magnesium and Zinc supplements) the body core is energized. People regain the curve in their spine. They look athletic, younger.
The high ‘Vitamin’ D studies (4000 UI/day and higher) found the patients lose 20 to 40 pounds and feel better. ie. Not ‘depressed’.
The natural level of serum Vitamin D for humans is around 80 ng/ml to 100 ng/ml.
The US and Canadian average is 26 ng/ml. 42% of the US and Canadian population are severely ‘Vitamin’ D deficient. Blacks are 82% deficient. Elderly in Louisiana had serum levels around 10 ng/ml.
Increasing Vitamin D serum levels from below 30 ng/ml to above 40 ng/ml reduces the incidences of many common diseases by 60%.
Our health care treats sick people who are sick because their bodies are deficient in ‘Vitamin’ D, Magnesium, and Zinc.
So if we could get the whole population, to close to microbiological optimum, they will stop getting sick and will of course crush the virus.
In terms of health care, fixing the three deficiencies, fixes all of the low hanging limb health care problems. Saving say 70%.
Agreed: The Ca/Mg/Zn with vit D supplement combination is well known within the health circles. And yes, Mg increases water to the bowels, which is why Mg Citrate is used as a laxative.
Despite receiving billions from government funding by DARPA and Gates Moderna has never developed a product that was licensed and got to market. This is an experimental vaccine that permanently changed human DNA to create antibodies that may not be effective or which may cause autoimmune reactions in some people and the DNA changes might be passed along to children. Only long term safety studies can verify its safety, but its being fast tracked. Its also important to note safety tests in Phase I trial was limited to healthy 18-55 yo.
Furthermore, Fauci also said there is no guarantee the vaccine will be effective. Beyond the fhact that antibody tests don’t prove protection, the only way to verify the vaccine world is to expose people to the virus. Lockdowns make this hard, and also the PCR tests have not been validated and have false positives and false negatives. But more important, as Fauci said , previous vaccine trials on coronavirus vaccines showed the vaccines made the virus more deadly in those who get re-exposed to the virus. Something called antibody immune enhancement. The only way to test this is by exposing the vaccinated intentionally to the live virus, something only done in animal trials. However, Moderna skipped animal trials, so thats not going to be tested except with human guinea pigs in the wild.
As for J&J. Good lord. Gorsky is the current CEO and was formerly VP of Jansenn when it was witholding data showing the harmful effects of their antipsychotic drug Risperdal (risperidone), harming many people including children. J&J received a huge fine (paid by shareholders) and he got promoted. I’m gonna have a lot of faith in his vaccine.
Its important to note that none of these vaccines have any liability. If You die or are sick from the vaccination you cant sue them.
Even when vaccine makers have liability in theory, in practice they sometimes get indemnities FROM the people they maimed, at least in France (country of pedants and know nothing lawyers and politicized judges).
Rud: Thank you for posting these technical pieces. Much appreciated!