By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The ineptitude of Western governments when keeping crucial statistics about the Chinese virus is becoming culpable. For a start, they are not even counting deaths either consistently or competently. In Britain, for instance, total reported deaths to April 17, 2020, were 14,576. However, a report issued April 16 by the Office for National Statistics points out that deaths are registered up to five days after they occur, and that the numbers given in HM Government’s daily briefings carefully exclude all deaths that do not occur in hospitals.
Correcting for these two serious errors indicates that the true number of deaths is about 50% greater than the Government’s cited figures, implying that in the UK the deaths from this dangerous pathogen are already approaching 22,000.
The regime in China has finally bowed a little before the gale of international criticism of its failure to provide the correct daily case-counts and death-counts required by its obligations at international law in terms of the World Health Organization treaty. After having reported only a tiny handful of deaths each day over recent weeks, it has suddenly admitted to more than 1000 hitherto-undisclosed deaths in Wuhan. Even now, it is very doubtful whether this admission represents anything more than a tiny fraction of the true count.
In China’s north-easternmost province, there have been very long lines outside the district hospital. Unconfirmed reports suggest an outbreak no less severe than that in Wuhan.
Not only are deaths not being recorded or reported correctly or timeously: recovered cases are also not being properly kept. The United Kingdom, whose civil service has become so used to everything being done for it by the European tyranny-by-clerk, has proven wholly unable to keep a tally of those who, having shown symptoms of the infection, have recovered from it. HM Government has altogether abandoned its daily reporting of recovered cases.
During the early stages of any pandemic, it is essential to keep a careful tally both of deaths and of recoveries, since the ratio of deaths to closed cases (i.e., to deaths plus those who have recovered) is a not unreliable indicator of the true case-fatality rate.
As the pandemic enters its middle stages – which is about where we are now – it is still more important to know how many have recovered, since the crucial number which tells governments whether they need to tighten or loosen control measures is the mean daily compound growth rate in currently-active cases, for those who have either recovered or died are no longer capable of transmitting the infection.
But it is impossible to calculate the number of currently-active cases, because governments are not correctly counting those who have recovered. Nor, for that matter, are they yet able to form a mature view of what fraction of the population have contracted the infection but are either asymptomatic or are showing such mild symptoms that they do not – for now, at any rate – require hospitalization.
Frankly, the record-keeping has been abysmal. Yet another lesson to be learned from South Korea is that proper, careful, up-to-date, case-by-case records absolutely must be maintained. Without them, governments are simply guessing what they should do.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 16, 2020.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 16, 2020.
In the meantime, the case-growth and death-growth graphs, based on such woefully inadequate data as are published, show very clearly that those who have tried to maintain that this pandemic is no worse than the seasonal flu are flat wrong.
In Ireland, growth in cumulative cases remains dangerously high at 13% compound every day. In the United States, though, that growth is now about 5.5% compound every day.
In Canada, growth in cumulative deaths is 13% compound every day; in the United States, 11%. Mr Cuomo, at his press conference in New York, says that the growth rate in new cases is now negative. However, it is not just the new cases but the active cases – those that are currently infections – that will determine the rate of growth in future. It is good that the number of new cases is declining, but one cannot say the worst is over until one knows that the number of active cases is declining. And one cannot know that if one does not count not only deaths but also recovered cases properly.
High-resolution images of the two graphs are here.
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It may be that South Korea and Taiwan are well prepared because they know what to expect from communist China. Some exports are extremely malevolent.
Lord Monckton-san:
I completely agree that most governments have done an abysmal job in accurately calculating both actual Wuhan flu deaths, and conducting antibody tests to determine the all-important denominator.
Although some Wuhan flu deaths may be missed, a huge number of deaths are being attributed to the Wuhan flu which were actually caused by comorbities: heart attacks, cancer, pneumonia, kidney/liver failure, strokes, diabetes, old age, etc.,.
For the first time in US medical history, doctors are being told to attribute cause of death to Wuhan flu to any patient with comorbidities who tested positive for the Wuhan flu, or were even suspected of having been infected without test confirmation. Such death attribution criteria is highly irregular and is solely done to inflate the number of Wuhan deaths.
The complete dearth of US Wuhan flu antibody testing is also evidence of the government trying to prevent the public from knowing the actual Wuhan flu death rate is much lower than their original estimate of 2~3%.
Moreover, the insanely inaccurate US death-toll model estimates that started out at 2.2 million and have “miraculously” dropped to 60,000, is also evidence of purposefully inflating dire estimates to terrify the public into submission, and to allow Legislators to pass a 1000-page $6 trillion Wuhan-flu bill (filled with pork) that no lawmaker even read, and there will likely be many more to come…
As Obama’s Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel once said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”
The only logical solution is to follow the Swedish model of only quarantining high-risk demographics (over 65 with comorbities) and let everyone else get back to their lives with enhanced sanitary protocols and social distancing to slow down the rate of infections to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and eventually developing herd immunity.
The quicker countries can get 50% of their population under 65 to recover from the Wuhan flu and generate antibodies, the quicker this terrible disease will end.
Yes, there will be many more Wuhan flu deaths, but nothing compared to the death toll that will occur if the world enters a complete economic collapse, which will happen if insane government hacks continue to shutdown the global economy.
Hopefully, a vaccine or an effective drug regimen will be developed soon, but to close down the economy until these become available is insane.
In response to Samurai-sensei, governments did not lock down their nations to wait for a vaccine that may or may not arrive. They did so in order to avoid overwhelming their hospitals. Now that that objective has been achieved, it is open to governments to unwind their lockdowns once their daily case-growth rate, averaged over seven days, has fallen to 2 or 3%.
Lord Monckton-san:
I agree the economic shutdown was initiated to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, however, its scope was influenced by the absurd initial model projections of 2.2 million deaths.
There are many crazy Leftist political hacks who still espouse keeping the US economy shut down for years until a vaccine or cure is developed and universally implemented, or at least until the November US elections..
Once US antibody test results are in, my guess is that around 15 million Americans have already been infected, with the vast majority asymptomatic, for an actual death rate of around 0.3%, which is still awful, but an order of magnitude less than what the fear mongers were propagandizing…
Again, I think the Swedish model makes the most sense and that 30 US states with falling new infections should immediately restart their economies with common sense sanitation and social distancing protocols, and people 65+ with comorbidities should remain sequestered.
Stay safe, Lord Monckton-san!
What if the effects of the vaccine stay only a few months? Would people be re-vaccinated several times?
Why do any statistical analysis, the government is now in charge and has all the answers. Keep it locked down. Keep people locked into home infection zones. Keep people from going outdoors as a double blind study has show this to be safer. The insanity continues and the worshipers bow.
“In a new analysis, the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford argues that the lethality of covid19 (IFR) is between 0.1% and 0.36% (i.e. in the range of a severe influenza). In people over 70 years of age with no serious preconditions, the mortality rate is expected to be less than 1%. For people over 80 years of age, the mortality rate is between 3% and 15%, depending on whether deaths so far were mainly with or from by the disease. In contrast to influenza, child mortality is close to zero. With regard to the high mortality rate in Northern Italy, the research group points out that Italy has the highest antibiotic resistance in Europe. In fact, data from the Italian authorities show that around 80% of the deceased were treated with antibiotics, indicating bacterial superinfections”
Nonsense. The Raoult protocol orders antibiotic treatment BEFORE there is any surinfection.
“The Finnish epidemiology professor Mikko Paunio from the University of Helsinki has evaluated several international studies in a working paper and comes to a Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.1% or less (i.e. in the area of seasonal influenza). According to Paunio, the impression of a higher lethality was created because the virus spread very quickly, especially in multi-generation households in Italy and Spain, but also in cities like New York. The „lockdown“ measures had come too late and had not been effective”
“The President of the German Hospital Association has sounded the alarm: more than 50 percent of all planned operations throughout Germany have been cancelled, and the „operations backlog“ is running into thousands. In addition, 30 to 40% fewer patients with heart attacks and strokes are treated because they no longer dare to go to the hospitals for fear of corona. There were 150,000 free hospital beds and 10,000 free intensive care beds nationwide. In Berlin, only 68 intensive care beds are occupied by corona patients, the emergency clinic with 1000 beds is currently not in use”
“New data of German authorities show that in Germany, too, the reproduction rate of Covid19 had already fallen below the critical value of 1 before the lockdown. General hygiene measures were therefore sufficient to prevent the exponential spread. This had already been shown by the ETH Zurich for Switzerland as well’
Nevertheless, the CFR is increasing day by day slightly to now 3.09 %.
Graph
“A review on Medscape shows that common cold infections caused by coronaviruses typically decline at the end of April – with or without a lockdown”
In response to Richard, it is not yet clear that Chinese-virus infections will be reduced by warmer weather, and there have been some reported indications that warmer weather makes little difference.
clasping at straws now?
Warmer clearly has made a huge difference in Chile. Three people have (allegedly) died from COVID-19 in the five northern, desert regions. In the five cool southern regions, 38. In the populous center, 85.
The death rates per million population are 1.36 in the north and 15.57 in the south. In the six central regions, 5.86, but only 2.22 in my Valparaiso Region, adjacent to the north.
Other factors besides climate of course might well be in play.
Lockdown was to protect the healthcare system from collapse which would lead to excess deaths over what naturally would have happened. (That was not true, but assuming it was, ok, short 2 week shut down.) 80% or more show no symptoms, fewer hospital visits, most of the rest have mild symptoms, even fewer hospital visits, fewer require medical care, less time in the hospital, fewer require ecu units, less stress on the system, and ventilators are more often harmful than helpful, so no lack of equipment. Mission accomplished. No further reason to remain locked down.
(Oh wait, we have to move the goalpost to keep the world locked down.) Now we have to delay deaths out to september (pretty close to November vote day do you not think? and seems arbitrary to say the least.)
As for the number of cases, I do not know for a fact, but I can certainly proficiently extrapolate out that in the United States of America about 100,000,000 have contracted and recovered or are still infected with the disease. I do this using the several random testing events we have had that indicate about 150 times (there is a range between 50 and 300 times) as many people as have tested positive actually have had and recovered or still have the virus. 715,105 cases times 150 equals 107 million people.
As for deaths, 97.3 of all deaths in New York City were to patients with known chronic diseases which lower life expectancy by about a decade or more each with an average of 2.7 known chronic illnesses per dead person with or without covid-19. I will use the with or without since New York City started assuming anyone that was dead before they were tested were positive and that the cause was covid-19.
The average age of death for a with covid-19 is 4 years less than the average life expectancy, although it is even less than 4 because most victims are male with a 2.5 year lower life expectancy. -2.5 years male times 60% male +2.5 years female times 40% female = -0.5 life expectancy for full group. So, 3.5 years under life expectancy. For a group that as a whole should be about 10 years lower.
Since the chronic diseases shave years off life expectancy, those people were already past the average life expectancy for someone with that condition when they contracted the disease. 78.69-10= 68.69. Apples to apples because we are looking at average whole population birth to death of all causes versus average all covid-19 deaths birth to death.
The government does not split out “died with” covid-19 compared “died due to” Covid-19. So I will do so statistically. 37,899 times 2.7% healthy with no chronic conditions deaths is 1,023 people who have died who were not destined to die regardless (oh yeah, capital letters to emphasize something is somehow delegitimizing of the facts) due to Covid-19 and even that number is possibly exaggerated because if any death with covid-19 is determined to be covid-19 related, then those who are young and healthy who are “covid-19” victims cannot be certain to be due to covid -19.
1,023 divided by 100,000,000 = .001% infection fatality ratio.
You are welcome your eminence the grand super awesome Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley.
But keep pushing the idea that we have to expend trillions of future generation’s wealth creation today to “save” lives.
I certainly hope the whole truth comes out and people like you and other pushing to keep the world shut down in China’s favor become pariahs and shunned and shamed until your timely deaths befall you and history remembers you as the tyrant enablers that you are.
yep!-
“UK: London’s temporary Nightingale hospital has remained largely empty, with just 19 patients being treated at the facility over the Easter weekend. London’s established hospitals have doubled their ICU capacity, and are so far coping with surge”
Mind you they are always have to cope with a surge during flu time.
The test must be biased false positive, false negative is not allowed.
What is the false positive bias.
Belgium estimates that the currently used tests have a 30% false negative rate. All numbers are extremely unreliable. What is culpable about that? And what does it matter as we know so very little about the disease other than that it is killing many old people and people suffering from other diseases and obese and very few young healthy normal weight people? Covid-19 will kill many more and spreading it over time may save the odd life in intensive care but the overall number will not be materially different is my guess.
“The German professor of economics Stefan Homburg in DIE WELT: „Why Germany’s lockdown is wrong – and Sweden is doing much better“: „In summary, countries like Sweden, South Korea or Taiwan have acted wisely by not using lockdowns. The virologists there guided the population and politicians through the crisis with a steady hand, instead of unsettling them by constantly changing course. The coronavirus was successfully contained without harming fundamental rights and jobs. Germany should take this policy as a model for itself.“
Christopher
Do you have any insights on why Ireland is an outlier with respect to new cases?
This week Ireland got the results from a German lab of a large number of tests from a backlog. This has contributed to the sudden jump in cases. Added to this is an increase in the numbers being tested. On national TV they report that the ‘r’ value (the reproduction rate) in the general community is now less than 1. A large number of deaths are now occurring in residential care homes.
Even GIGO doesn’t describe it. Unreliable numbers, late numbers, “someone died so it must have been Wuhun virus” numbers. Hospitals receiving additional cash for each reported Wuhan death (no chance of funny stuff there!) Videos of what look like hospital staff doing choreographed dance routines because they have plenty of time on their hands with so few Wuhan admissions.
And on it goes. This is infuriating. And yet they tell us “we’re all in this together.”
On a side note, are there any graphs that show current all deaths across the United States that is updated daily or at the least weekly? My google searches are coming up with nothing.
CFR (%):
USA 727.976 38.233 5,25
Spain 191.726 20.043 10,45
Italy 175.925 23.227 13,20
France 147.969 19.323 13,06
Germany 142.797 4.416 3,09
UK 114.217 15.464 13,54
China 82.719 4.632 5,60
Belgium 37.183 5.453 14,67
Swizzerland 27.404 1.366 4,98
Sweden 13.822 1.511 10,93
Singapore 5.992 11 0,18
I mean (warning, possible triggering capitals follow, if you are triggered by words in all capitals stop right here, I am not responsible for your death or other rabid response if you read beyond these three dots …) ALL deaths. Flu, Pneumonia, cancer, heart disease, liver failure, spleen bursting and so on…
https://www.euromomo.eu/
Excess mortality numbers are on the rise and even in the 15-64 age group which is NOT common for the flu.
The lazy Robert-Koch-Institute in Germany just takes their time to report so no data there.
Thanks, this is what I was looking for.
For 65 plus and all ages, 2016-2017 new years period looks to have been deadlier (wider and as tall for the spike) and then looking at the 12 weeks surrounding february 2018 the spike is not as high, but has 12 weeks of excess deaths.
So, in reality, this does not look any worse than the past flu seasons for anyone except that 15-64 year old group, and I would imagine that is primarily in the older portion of that group aged 50-64.
So, perspective shows that we are not in reality in any kind of special circumstance.
Again thanks, I was totally unable to find anything on this.
Your interpretation of the data confuses me. The spikes per country are far above from any average year on the graphs (scale of y-axis!). Reported numbers are usually delayed and the epidemic is not over yet so the numbers will even rise higher.
The total number in Europe is not elevated (yet) cause fortunately a lot of countries have acted fast and have low numbers thereby covering the steep increase of countries hit hard by SARS-CoV-2. That should be obvious.
Ron
It isn’t important for COVID-19 to mimic seasonal flues in all respects to make a comparison between the two. What the important considerations are, are the loss of a large number of lives from a communicable disease, and how society reacts to it. In the past, (with the probable exception of the Spanish Flu) the US tolerated 10’s of thousands of annual deaths, with the primary response being a commitment to do a better job of guessing how the next year’s vaccine cocktail should be formulated. We stoically accepted the unfortunate loss of life as being either beyond our control, or not worth the economic damage we are presently inflicting on ourselves. I’m still grappling with how things changed so quickly that we would impose an untried response to slowing down a pandemic, which shares many things in common with diseases we simply accepted previously. What has been called “acting out of an abundance of caution,” will probably prove to have been a serious mistake, in my opinion. Not unlike killing a fly on one’s glass coffee table, using a hammer.
Oh, and Sweden has a Z-score above 7. Their approach of backing up the retirement funds seems to work.
Amazing the amount of denial around Covid 19 here. Still comparing it to seasonal flu eg.. I don’t recall a recent seasonal flu where thousands die each day, not month. Or where so many health care workers have died from it. Or so many nursing and long term care facilities have been ravaged by it. Some in intensive care for weeks and still there. It is gradually emerging just how deadly it has been in the various care homes, and not yet counted. Using the UK as an example over 800 per day have died attributed to Covid 19 including younger health care workers. The normal deaths from all causes is 1400. I would say 800 is a serious number. Sure some would have died soon anyway but also others wont have been tested but still died from it. You can over analyse anything but dead is dead. How many here writing dispassionately would volunteer to get it? This is not about polar bears or fractions of a degree or ice cover it is people dying.
“A new serological study by Stanford University found antibodies in 50 to 85 times more people than previously thought in Santa Clara County, California, resulting in a Covid-19 lethality of 0.12% to 0.2% or even lower (i.e. in the range of severe influenza)’
Lacbob
You said, “I don’t recall a recent seasonal flu where thousands die each day, not month.” Perhaps you (and the MSM) just weren’t paying attention. The CDC estimated 80,000 deaths in the 2017-2018 season, with the peak over January through March. That is, the majority died over a period of about 90 days. That would be about 800 per day, or perhaps a little less, accounting for the tails of the curve. The US has had about 36,000 COVID-19 deaths over primarily March and April, or about 600 per day. We can quibble about details in the numbers, but they are certainly not different by an order of magnitude.
“How many here writing dispassionately would volunteer to get it? This is not about polar bears or fractions of a degree or ice cover it is people dying.”
Health care workers get massive doses of the disease and their body over reacts. Outside of those instances, I am 99.999% convinced that the disease kills about 0.0001% of those who are infected outright at most and the rest of the deaths attributed to it are due to covid-19 as a hot day is to blame for the little 93 year old lady dying of a heart attack brought on by the heat. That little 93 year old lady was going to die that same day regardless or at worst 9 months from that day. The stress of the heat just made it happen minutes to months earlier.
And I have diabetes and am over 50. Perfectly happy to get the disease and be treated with Hydroxychloroquine, zinc and Azithromycin. I am 100% certain I am much further way from dying than 9 months from now.
Like I said ” denial “. Where on earth would you get the idea that only 0.0001% who get it die? And who are you to say that 93 year old lady didn’t deserve her extra 9 months. There may be uncertainty about exactly how many are dying from it but I am sure it is a significant number. Now whether it could have been handled differently is another question. The reality is the true extent will only be known when it is all over and any amount of analysis won’t alter that. And I for one would not like to have it.
I miswrote, I meant 0.001% die OF the disease. The rest die of their age or chronic health conditions.
I think she should have her extra 9 months of life. But not at great expense to me and the rest of society. She has no right to what is mine to extend her life. For the heat wave example, she should have saved throughout her life, or made her husband do so, or had kids who could pay for air conditioning for example. I should not have to pay to build great big sun shades in space to cool her home for her. For the Covid example, maybe she could live in a better place with more security and avoid contact with anyone, and she could have decontamination rooms that lead up to her penthouse on the 100th floor for all I care. But I should not be homebound with permission only to grocery shop to “protect” her.
You might not be so happy and sure should you come down with it. More than a few “perfectly” fit people have become gravely ill and died.
Yeah, I think that number is around 1023 in the United States so far for healthy people. Perfectly willing to take that 0.001% chance with my life as long as I get to live my life.
I should not be a prisoner in my own home to protect other people from a widely distributed highly contagious almost infinitesimally deadly disease.
I have diabetes and am over 50. So, supposedly I am in the high risk group. End the shutdown and get to work!
Do you have examples, or just the usual rumor-mill type stuff? Sometimes “perfectly” fit people do things like vape, abuse alcohol and drugs which can cause respiratory illness and death. People with controlled hypertension are considered healthy, but they are at high risk.
You can find many stories like that linked below. It’s possible that some underlying condition could be found upon autopsy but there are definitely some young seemingly healthy people losing their lives.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/dj-conrad-buchanan-coronavirus-death/index.html
For sometime, now, I have been wondering if the Covid-19 can be air transported. There is now evidence that it CAN be. This means that it can travel on the prevailing winds, possibly over long distances, and no amount of border closings or ‘social distancing’ will make any difference. It would also explain why people in far remote areas, with no airports or contact with outsiders, are catching the Covid-19 flu. The ONLY thing that will slow it down is warmer weather and bright sunshine. At least, until cooler weather returns in the Fall.
We had better have a reliable vaccine available, by then.
Very little chance of having a vaccine by Fall, except for wild active immunization if there is such a thing.
What cases have there been in far remote areas?
The ineptitude of Western governments when keeping crucial statistics about the Chinese virus is becoming culpable.
In countries that have a tradition of respect for human rights and individual liberties, and are always striving to improve, it is no simple matter to perform a bunch of invasive diagnostic procedures when there is no clear expectation that the persons being diagnosed will benefit. IRB approval is required; HIPAA standards on dissemination and protection of results must be respected; the people administering the diagnostic procedure have to pay all the costs; participants have the right to withdraw from the project at any time. In an ICU (for example) where the course of care will not depend on the outcome of the diagnostic procedure, third parties will not cover the cost.
There is a history of abuse of power and authority by medical professionals that have led to the modern restriction. A simple claim that one is acting in the public interest is not sufficient to gain permission to perform the tests, and performance of tests requires the permission of the people tested (or their legal guardians or parents.) Public spirited researchers complain that the standards are too restrictive, but they are written into law, and transgressors can be tried and sued.
On the other hand, there are well-documented shortages of supplies, so some of the people requesting to be tested can not be tested. And there are other problems.
We have been out clapping for the NHS (ymmv in other countries) on Thursday nights, but on Tuesday it is the 94th birthday of HM, Queen Elizabeth II. On ths occasion she has decided to forego the customary Gun Salute and other customs in honour her birthday – the only time in her long reign it has been cancelled.
I would most humbly suggest that the UK should come together on Tuesday evening at 20:00 to honour our Queen and sing Happy Birthday to her from our doorsteps – such that she might hear us in Windsor.
Thank you.
Maybe she will take the occasion to give some of her spare bin liners to those of her “subjects” who are putting their lives on the line to save the population of her country from the mess created by a series of Her Majesty’s governments which she has authorised over her long reign.
Maybe as one of the richest people on the planet she could help out a bit.
Arsehole!
Second time, eaven the first is long ago:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8231647/The-Queen-cancel-birthday-plans-time-Adolf-Hitler-mix-up.html
Mutations of corona virus
Interesting:
Stockholm will reach ‘herd immunity’ within weeks
Sweden now looks like a big experiment zone. We shall see how that goes in the next few weeks.
In a random street survey of 200 people by Mass General, 64 tested positive for ChiCom virus antibodies:
https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus
If 100 million Americans have been or will be infected, and 60,000 of us (0.06%) die with or from the virus, then it is indeed less fatal than the flu.
Granted, a small sample in the hard hit Boston area.
When antigen tests are sparse and serologic testing is still unreliable there are really 2 hard measures: number of people admitted to hospitals with respiratory problems and total weekly or monthly number of deaths (in both cases compared with the previous years baseline for these months). Methinks the former clearly indicates anomalous surge in cases. Latter is bit harder to interpret. There may be deaths caused by coronavirus but only indirectly, for example people scared go to hospitals for routine treatments, delays in first aid in cases of cardiac problems or strokes etc.
Haven’t checked lately, but previously the CDC reported flu season cases way down. Maybe because of the shutdown, or because people who would have succumbed to flu have died on COVID, or their deaths have been attributed to it.
Nursing homes in the NY metro area are death traps. US data without NY, NJ and CT are way lower. Take out Detroit and New Orleans, and America is among the less affected countries. Seattle area was bad at the beginning, but its death rate keeps dropping relative to the hard hit states.
Haven’t checked lately, but previously the CDC reported flu season cases way down.
Do you actually mean raw number of hospital admissions? Or flu down but covid way up?
Nursing homes alas seem to be heavily affected in many countries. Even our Swedish example: what I heard from one Swede was actually they did awful job in protecting nursing homes, that’s why they’ve got relatively high mortality due to Wuhan virus compared with their Scandinavian neighbors. As per UK mortality rate for last weeks of March and first of April are apparently up 5-6 thousands; from 10-11 k to 15-16 k. If I remember correctly hearing from Chris Whitty (chief medical officer) only half of those deaths can be directly attributed to covid. There is a concern then that many people are dying due to fear of hospitals – they want to save NHS unfortunately on expense of their lives. Whitty even made a plea to people who think may have serious problems: call NHS as usual.
This winter flu season coming to an end had far fewer deaths from flu. If you add COVID cases to excess winter deaths, it works out to less horrible than 2017-18. COVID however will continue into May and June, so will have to wait for the full year figures.
Nursing homes have been the real k!llers, of course. In the US, especially in NYC metro area, where staff didn’t mask up early, visitors weren’t restricted and the ethnic makeup was tough. Plus, they’re generally far worse there than in most of the country.
IMO better than comparing Sweden with Denmark or the UK is looking at FL and TX in the US vs. NY and NJ. Both less locked down states with GOP governors have fared far better, depite larger urban populations and lots of at higher risk black, Latino and elderly citizens and residents.
Death rates per million attributed to COVID, as of today:
NY 1044
NJ 535
US 135
FL 41
TX 19
Compare and contrast demographics of NY vs. FL:
NY
Black 16%
Latino 18
FL
Black 17
Latino 26
As of 2011, Florida had the highest percentage of people over 65 (17%) in the US.
Most densely populated major US cities:
1) NYC
2) SF
3) Boston
4) Chicago
5) Philly
6) Miami.
And yet the media have been lambasting FL Gov. DeSantis for recklessness!
CDC flu data for Week 15, 2020:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Random survey of people on the street during a time when people concentrating on not getting sick are not out wandering the streets?
Gosh, how could that fail to be a random sampling?
Besides for that, there is obvious lack of uniformity from place to place, especially dense urban areas vs every place else.
“for those who have either recovered or died are no longer capable of transmitting the infection”
I read recently about a case where a coroner got infected during an autopsy.