Guest Post By Ronald Stein
Founder and Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure of PTS Advance, headquartered in Irvine, California
Published March 11, 2020 at CFACT https://www.cfact.org/2020/03/11/social-changes-with-covid-19-are-a-prelude-to-life-with-less-fossil-fuels/
While the world is feverously trying to reduce emissions from fossil fuel usage, we get hit with the horrific contagious Coronavirus COVID-19. We’ve seen extensive self-imposed social adjustments to transportation that are very similar to what will be required to live with less fossil fuels in the future.
We’ve seen a serious reduction in the usage of the transportation infrastructures of airlines and cruise ships, as well as automobiles and trucks, and their impact on the leisure and entertainment industries, all to avoid crowds.
Before fossil fuels and the thousands of products made from petroleum derivatives, and electricity that followed, the world was a zero-sum snake pit that was a war against one another scrounging for food, water, and shelter. In the 1800’s most people never traveled 100-200 miles from where they were born. Life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 20 and 30 years of age.
The social lifestyles before 1900 had no such transportation choices, as they had no autos, planes, or cruise ships for transportation. The inventions of the automobile, airplane, and the use of petroleum in the early 1900’s led us into the Industrial Revolution. Crude oil, natural gas, and coal changed – for the better – the lifestyles of every person living in developed countries such as, the U.S., Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
We would not be able to “make products and move things” if not for the thousands of products from petroleum derivatives that get manufactured from crude oil that wind turbines and solar panels cannot manufacture. A few of those products that are part of modern societies include:
Economies around the world, and all the infrastructures are increasing their demand and usage each year of those energy sources from deep earth minerals/fuels to make thousands of products, inclusive of but not limited to:
· Medications and medical equipment for cures for most diseases
· Electronics for worldwide communications
· Fertilizers to help agriculture feed the world
· Asphalt for all the roads
· Tires for all vehicles
· Steel for every building in the world
· Wire for the worldwide electrical grid
Today, the airlines that did not exist before 1900, transported more than 4.1 billion passengers in 2017 around the world and projections are 7.8 billion airline passengers by 2036. Cruise ships which also did not exist before 1900 move 25 million passengers around the world every year.
Along with those transportation options available for society, we also have billions of vehicle trips to and from airports, hotels, ports, and amusement parks that are increasing each year. COVID-19 has shown us that society changes can reduce the demand of those growing numbers.
Yes, we may be using fossil fuels too extensively for leisure and entertainment, but the developed world is where it is today, healthier and wealthier, because of all those products we get from those oil derivatives.
To meet those low emission targets, we’ll need to continue to reduce the transportation demands of society and COVID-19 may be showing us how we’ll need to retract from our extravagant usage of the various transportation systems that did not exist before fossil fuels.
Our future existence may be less vacations and less business conferences. Reductions in the usage of the entertainment and hospitality industries, neither of which existed before fossil fuels, may also be necessitated.
As we weed ourselves from oil, we’ll need to lower our demands for transportation infrastructures that COVID-19 has shown us the way.
As we weed ourselves away from fossil fuels, we’ll need to accept that many developing countries like many in China, India, and Africa that are still stuck in the pre-1900’s era that have yet to join the industrial revolution and the opportunity to enjoy the thousands of products in our daily lifestyles, may never do so as the fuels that support the demands of the various transportation infrastructures will be diminishing.
The same politicians that are thrashing on the oil and gas industry, and seeking its demise, are the same ones reaping the benefits of the medications, medical equipment, communication networks, and the thousands of other products from that industry that have contributed to their lifestyles and their ability to live beyond 80 years of age. Those vocal about emissions need to join the conservation movement.
Yes the world has changed from the societies that existed in primeval times, without airlines, trains, vehicles, merchant ships, medications, fertilizers, cosmetics, and military equipment like aircraft carriers, battleships, planes, tanks and armor, trucks, troop carriers, and weaponry, and electricity that did not exist before 1900, but now may be the time to start showing our conservation cards.
At a rapid pace more and more countries and governments are moving their energy policies toward ridding the world of fossil fuels to electrify societies using only intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panels. Electricity alone may support a simplifier lifestyle but cannot support the huge energy needs of the transportation infrastructures, nor provide the thousands of products that societies demand from those petroleum derivatives.
While everyone improves their conservation and efficient use of energy, it may be timely to begin weeding ourselves away from the transportation infrastructures, and the leisure and entertainment industries to the best of their abilities to conserve oil for where its most needed for society, to make the thousands of products that support lifestyles as well as worldwide sustainable economic development.
Ronald Stein, P.E.
Founder and Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure
PTSadvance.com
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Oh yes, indeed. Clearly we must revert to cave-age living to allow for highly contentious and totally unproved claims by Marxists with the connivance of peer-group pressure on politicians, scientists and lay-people from a dangerously biased MSM.
Thanks for such a startlingly clearly revealed agenda!
And now, Ian E, those idiot Marxists, led by Putin, have decided to begin an oil war with Saudi Arabia, and the result is substantial damage to economies. Sure, the price of oil falling will result in the price of fuel falling, but the disruption to the status quo, relative to producers and consumers more-or-less balanced, is not work it.
Since COVID-19 requires several degrees of separation to maintain health, It is more like Anti-Social Changes
Perhaps there will be an increase in Anti-Social Websites in responce
All effort to decrease fossil fuel use or decrease CO2 emissions are patently political and have nothing to do with climate or the environment. It is clear that technology and the growth of wealth is great for the environment as we take better care of it, use resources more efficiently, and do not make new mistakes. Except for the inane biofuels program, the US is growing its food on 1/3 of the land it was 50 years ago. All of that land can be let go back to nature. That’s a wonderful development.
CO2 cannot and does not do what they claim. It matters not what the gas is, -17ºC gas in the upper tropical troposphere cannot warm the 15ºC Earth surface. It’s simply thermodynamically impossible, but the public is sold junk science night and day to further an agenda based on power and wealth.
As oil and gas are NOT fossil fuels but are abiotic from the planet’s core, they are basically a renewable resource and the only way we would not have the oil and gas we want is if we foolishly did not harvest enough.
Pretending, mindlessly, that we are running out of carbon fuels, or that CO2 has to be warming the climate, is to buy into a dictatorship because you do not want to think about the consequences of being a slave in poverty under the dictator.
I’ve heard about the theory of an abiotic origin for oil. Where is your claim best substantiated? I think Russia have used the idea to successfully discover and drill new wells, have they not?
Yes, and the Russian weather models seem a lot more realistic, showing very mild warming even if we double CO2 from today’s level.
Coronavirus provides an e experimental environment for testing out the kind of totalitarian control that zero carbon policy will require. The difference is that it poses a real threat, whereas zero carbon policy is voluntary.
Public taste for the experiment will be worth watching. Totalitarians will be watching too, and seeking to impose ongoing restrictions on the back of it to accelerate zero carbon policy. AOC and Greta will see it as opportunity.
The COVID-19 virus and subsequent travel ban from mainland Europe to the US should provide a stress test for Russia’s economy. They are dumping more oil on the market at a time when demand is tanking – in no small part due to the travel ban.
+1
The plebs. must be contained and heavily taxed, while our masters and betters, like Weinstein and Soros, carry on with their gilded lifestyles……
Weinstein and Soros will carry on only for so long. Unfortunately, there is some CV survivor on a path to replace them.
Scissor
Weinstein just got 23 years didn’t he?
Yes, Weinstein got 23 years.
The women he attacked got life without parole.
Weinstein still has more charges to face. He’ll spend the rest of his life in prison.
Yes, it’s especially interesting times for him. I can’t see him jumping over the prison fence with walker in tow.
Maybe he too will be found hanging with a bed sheet wrapped around his neck. Got all tangled up in his bedding…
Weinstein is a slug, however I have much more respect for the women who actually refused him rather than complained years later. these women are probably wives and mothers now rather than superstars.
”COVID 19 has shown us the way”
So, another idiot who is so out of touch that he’s willing to take a chance that the Virus does not leave a mark on the public consciousness to the extent that he suffers blow back.
Or just another variation of the long historical line of doomsayers who claim that our woes are because GOD is angry with us, and who has simply transposed fossil fuels for a god.
As James Randi would say, ‘You Decide’ 🙂
Really? Come see the roads in Europe. Much safer to take the car than public transport and while gas is sooo cheap. I think you dream.
Also – as you wean YOURself from oil, do you intend to go naked, with furniture, infrastructure and so on? Because all of these come from oil….
The Eco-Fascist credo always sums to “And misery for all.”
Except for the socialist ruling classes, of course.
Coming soon . . . AGW and CAGW “Greenies” taking credit for what a virus has caused in terms of reducing fossil fuel use.
why does China get a total pass on everything?…
People should be screaming their heads off at China right now…..
Because China already has the type of government that these people want for the rest of us.
Certainly our wonderful Trudeau has expressed admiration for the Chinese govt ability to turn on a dime and slaughter any number of people in the way of progress (paraphrased slightly)
I’ve been wondering that, how come the SJWs and snowflakes aren’t out protesting about China and Iran? If this had started in the US or UK and we’d acted the same way the lefties would be in outrage.
Never let a crisis go to waste, eh doc? Shameless. I’ll say, I’d still rather travel in my car than a bus, subway, plane, or rideshare, especially when I don’t know the other people, and their health habits.
Well, at least there is no shortage of oil if we want it. That’s a relief for when we regain sanity. 10-20-30 years ago, we were just a few more years to reach Peak Oil. Obviously wrong. And the same for the climate fraud extortion and racketeering. But we are living through historical times and will be interesting to see if the zealots get their way. A lot will depend on the USA election and which way America goes, and whether it can deliver sanity and true global leadership.
Fortunately, for the most part our utilities will continue to function. For the full experience, pull the electric and gas service to your home along with the Internet. See how long it takes your kids who think the GND is so super to go crazy.
Yes, you right. So far, my internet, gas and electricity is doing just fine. But it weren’t, that would seal the deal for more clear headed climate science, at least about panic and doom. But this overblown panic may also be a prelude to sanity against the climate fascists. This may also be the end of the climate fraud impaling us all on their petard. This is just on paper so far with the meltdown, and no major inconvenience yet as you propose except the loss of trillions in wealth that are being destroyed and/or stolen. This is a crisis which we have made for ourselves, or have allowed to be created by hostile foreign forces. Although there are going to be severe economic consequences from this, far worse than any virus. The actual structural damage hasn’t happened yet and will take a fair bit of time to work through this one as demand crashes and real jobs are lost. Well, IMHO.
Earthling2 “But this overblown panic may also be a prelude to sanity against the climate fascists.” “This is just on paper so far with the meltdown, and no major inconvenience yet as you propose except the loss of trillions in wealth that are being destroyed and/or stolen. This is a crisis which we have made for ourselves, or have allowed to be created by hostile foreign forces.” “Although there are going to be severe economic consequences from this, far worse than any virus. The actual structural damage hasn’t happened yet and will take a fair bit of time to work through this one as demand crashes and real jobs are lost. ”
So correct in many of your comments. The “economic consequences” are already starting to affect many businesses in the transportation industries of global travling masstransit of planes and ships and local masstransit of buses, trains/trams/high speed rails, taxi services of every kind where people are afraid to go into public or wherever other people have been that may be contagious. Sporting events cancelled professionally to school games, not going to movies and plays, not going to stores to buy anything unless they’re desperately out of things they need and over-stocking up on things to avoid going back for weeks…, depleting warehouses of common goods and commodities that the Transportation Industries like trucking are losing business. When you total up all these things the number of employees not working at the venues, concession stands, drivers/operators, maintenance personnel, etc…all add up to millions not earning their normal incomes, that creates a big drop in each countries GDP and the Taxation collected by the governments affected.
The American Socialist Party – the defunct Democratic Party – that has been against Capitalism because of the Alarmist on Global Warming by Fossil Fuels. So everything they have been wanting is happening by reducing Fossil Fuels because of this COVID-19 like this article points out is like the “Green New Deal” on steroids. The Economy is going to be hit hard like the “Stock Market Crash of 1929” as global trading of products will decline, making the businesses of manufactured products lose revenue, their stocks are going to be reduced – like already happened in this panic and the rebound is going to be slow. If these governments don’t start reducing their spending on unnecessary wealth sharing programs, foreign aid, open borders and demonizing Fossil Fuels like these American Socialist candidates are advocating for, they’re going to collapse like the “Cloward and Pevin Strategy” was designed as.
Yes John, you are of course correct and right that there are a lot of things just happening overnight even the loss of NBA basketball last night, now the NHL hockey season and maybe even delaying baseball sounds like just this morning, and everything else you mentioned just going bizarre the last week/10 days. Feels like a few months here already, but hasn’t been but a few weeks at most here.
But so far it is barely the last 2 week pay period that will be paid tomorrow and the real shock will be in the months to come as everything you mention winds down, depending how crazy they go with this ‘containment’. The cat is already out of the bag, so not sure containment will do a lot of good now, other than secure the old and vulnerable folk who might get the worst of it. Perhaps it could have been better contained in Wuhan, China, if they hadn’t allowed several million to escape to the the 4 corners of the good Earth. But the CPC in Red China suppressed info for at least the first 3 weeks while a lot of infected people left China for everywhere else but China. Sure seems to be following the Old Silk Road from Wuhan, to Iran, to Rome as did previous plagues and disease.
Most everyone is going to get this sooner or later, and for most of us, it is going to be a case of the sniffles and a dry cough like a mild cold or perhaps even a bad flu. And then they will maybe get immunity for Round 2 that returns with a vengeance next fall after it mutates. And who know then how that unfolds. But that was what happened with the Spanish Flu, when the first outbreak that all my grand parents got and survived, and then their antibodies primed them from the worse Round 2 in later 1918 and 1919 when so many young healthy folk perished. Definitely a Black Swan Event now, but also looks like is being aided and abetted by human stupidity destroying the economy. And Russian mischief, combined with Saudi complicity.
But this has all just happened the last 10 days/few weeks, here and only moderately the first few 3-4 days. The stock markets were still going full guns just the beginning of the month 12 days ago, and just mildly dropping slightly the last week of February. And the oil ‘trade war’ didn’t really start until just last Friday, when Russia and Saudi Arabia made their announcements, just 5 days ago although oil was slipping the last few months a bit. So yes, the collateral damage is going to be extreme, and will only start to show up on tomorrow’s pay day from the last few weeks, and then will hit like an avalanche the next few months. It is 100% certainty it is now a major recession, and a possibility of a Depression if they don’t reign in this madness.
Instead of shutting down the entire economy and semi quarantining the entire population, I think the efforts should of went into ensuring the elderly and vulnerable were isolated, at least until they can maybe get some antivirals, or plasma transfusions which are sounding promising from recovered patients, or an outright vaccine, although that might take 12-18 months, if ever. And how do you contain the elderly and vulnerable for that long. It is inevitable that the there will be some mortality by those elderly and vulnerable, but so does the regular influenza season every year and nobody bats an eye about that. Killing the economy off is going to also basically put a lot of people out of commission. Probably more suicides will develop than any deaths in those of the younger aged demographics just because they are going to lose their job, car and maybe their house. Crime will soar, drug abuse will be rampant, and all hope will be lost.
Looks like a practise run for how our 245 year experiment with freedom and liberty might end, if the climate fascists can use a similar excuse to shut down the world economy, if we let them. But I think people are going to have had it with fear and panic, especially 50-80 years down the road. It is downright sickening to read some of their gleeful comments on how great this all is for the lack of demand of fossil fuels because the world will be trapped in a totalitarian depression, with absolute control over energy and liberty. This is their ultimate goal as they fully admit. SO everyone has to say this climate extortion and racketeering is an evil force, or that will be 1000 times worse than any of this.
The great pursuit of the Democrats- Life (for the elites), liberty (only if you are a true believer) and happiness (for the Marxist elites ONLY). For all others you are there to serve in silence and misery. Sounds a lot like the old systems we got rid of with progress to me.
In case the watermelons and their followers haven’t noticed- life has never been better for humanity.
Is this article a POE?
Yes, I have my internet delivered through a an extended Power Over Ethernet (POE) connection.
The likelihood of a word wide recession or even a depression triggered by the virus is very real. The same type of recession that would be caused by a sharp reduction in fossil fuel use. Watch for bankruptcies in the travel industry coupled with energy sector failures. Watch the cost to industry escalate due to disruptions in the work force and supply restrictions.
Although the aged will suffer the most deaths it is the youthful who will suffer the most economically. Governments will suffer drastic revenue restrictions as tax sources decline and industry bailout costs soar.
We may see if the public still has the resolve for drastic climate change policies after this is over. I have a feeling the emphasis will be on rebuilding economies and wealth.
It should be noted that many deaths can already be directly linked to the virus while there are probably none that can be similarly linked to global climate changes caused by human activity.
Rick says:
“The likelihood of a word wide recession or even a depression triggered by the virus is very real.”
Every month that large portions of an economy are disrupted by any disease IS a recession month, even if not officially named a recession, because there were fewer than six months.
The only question is: How many months will the temporary shut down of commerce last ?
The answer is likely to be several months, based on past serious diseases, and experiences in China in 2020.
China is a leading indicator for COVID-19 in the rest of the world — through drastic actions, it appears the communist dictator has gained control of the spread of the disease in Wuhan, where it appeared to have started.
For people who panic: Other (ordinary) strains of the flu kill FAR more people than COVID-19 every year !
Again.. other strains of the flu circulate in China and then travel here. They get the flu too.
But China doesn’t lock down its cities for influenza. They do lock down cities for this virus and that is because it is different… more lethal and equally transmissible with no treatment that is effective as yet.
It is foolish to shrug and say ‘it’s just a flu’.
It may be that it will be with us long term but for now, if rate of transmission can be slowed down for a few months it may avoid the situation where you are having respirator lotteries and tent hospitals as it really looks like everyone’s medical system will be completely overwhelmed.
My two bits worth.
It is complicated but this is a rational evaluation of the situation, IMO.
Nothing is going to stop it, but slowing it seems to be a very desirable thing to do. But slowing it may be impossible without draconian controls over movement…not of some people, or most people, but everyone in the affected areas.
And at this point, it sure looks like all areas are affected.
As an aside, it is very difficult to understand, given all we think we know, how it is a crowded country with 1500 million people has in a few weeks reduced new cases to a few a day.
Well, Oregon and Washington just banned gatherings over two-hundred people – so, right of assembly – check.
Kate Brown is ramrodding through her New Green Deal without a vote – right to vote – check.
I’m sure we’re going to get a state of emergency on gun-violence soon too.
I will also point out the irony of all the high-density, collectivist forcings by progressives and, gee, doesn’t that conflict with ‘don’t congregate, because you might spread a pandemic’?
I don’t see Kate Brown shutting down the MAX train.
The month of March has just been cancelled. Everyone panic, there is a new case of the common cold going around.
For the past week, pro-government Spanish journalists have ridiculed the drastic measures of other countries and chanted that pernicious mantra: “the coronavirus is nothing but a flu.” And so, while Italy, Iran, France, Germany, Switzerland, South Korea, and Japan decreed important bans and urged their citizens to avoid rallies and take extreme precautions, the Spanish government threw protesters into the streets while millions of people maintained their travel plans and social gatherings.
On Sunday, as I watched the packed feminist march in Madrid, I suspected something terrible might happen. The Spanish government led the Spaniards to believe that, for some mysterious reason, perhaps associated with the magical properties of our red wine, we were immune to this virus. And according to official reports, we were, but only until the first minute after the end of the last feminist march. Then they admitted we didn’t have 374 coronavirus cases but in fact more than 1,200, an evolving disaster equal to or worse than the Italian one.
And over 30,000 people have died from influenza already this year in just the US. A bad flu season takes over 1,000,000 lives each year and bad flu outbreaks can take tens of millions. The CDC estimates that on average people catch 2-3 “common cold” viruses each year, an estimated 33% of these are from covid family viruses, and the number of people that die from these viruses each year is hard to estimate.
So please tell me, how is 1,200 cases of Covid-19 in a nation of 45,000,000 a disaster?
Nothing to say?
On March 11th, Donna Laframboise showed a table where Spain’s case fatality rate is 23%.
Spain’s total coronavirus cases as of 3/13/2020 just after midnight is 3146.
You reference 1,200 cases of COVID-19.
America as of 3/13/2020 just after midnight now shows coronavirus cases are 1,758; an increase of 558.
America’s case fatality rate is currently 56.3%.
Unlike claims that COVID-19 is only deadly for the old and infirm, China’s flyer regarding COVID-19 clearly shows the deadliness is high for starting at age 20 with the rates increasing as the age increase.
?dl=0
News from Italy indicated doctors and nurses are forced to prioritize COVID-19 care for those without prior conditions; like old age or other illnesses.
Wednesday, i.e. 3/11/2020 America released a study.
The earlier SARS is described as a “super spreader” in rate of infections. Intimations are that SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is also a super spreader.
The researchers state that COVID-19 virus is viable for three hours in the atmosphere. Then later the research describes that the test for atmosphere viability was only conducted for 180 minutes. Apparently, end of the test means end of COVID-19 viability.
Length of COVID-19 viability is mucous was not tested.
It needs to be noted if no one else does, that those numbers for flu deaths are for Pneumonia and influenza, and are numbers of people who die WITH flu or pneumonia, but not necessarily OF flu or pneumonia.
IOW…if they were not very old or had some preexisting condition, the flue or the pneumonia would likely not have killed them.
Also, this many people die of those things even though almost everyone has been exposed to influenza and other causes of viral and bacterial pneumonia before, so some immunity exists, and others who are in contact with the persons who die are not likely to also get very sick and die. Most will not even get sick. When one person gets the flu, everyone they have been in contact with does not get it.
When one person dies, everyone else is not at increased risk of dying.
Also, the flu has been spreading among people all over the entire planet for all of time.
Six months ago, one year ago, it was already everywhere.
Three months ago, it is likely a few hundred people in one city in China had the disease, and a month prior to that, it may have been only one person or perhaps no people but a few animals for sale in a market with thousands of people passing their cages daily.
So the absolute numbers at this point is a dumb comparison. It just is.
Besides, when people panic, when stock markets crash, and businesses are closed, it does not matter if it was rational to start with.
It did not matter that it was irrational that people spent their life savings on tulip bulbs at one point in history.
The stock market losing value in 1929 did not mandate all of the chaos that ensued, or all of the misery that went along with it.
The fact that it is irrational for store shelves to be stripped bare by panic buying will not help anyone get the items they need.
In fact, it is likely that millions have been infected by standing amidst crowds of other shoppers, some of whom were infected and do not even know it, and they did so while buying stuff they likely do not in most cases need to have bought right then.
People in airports all over the country for the past two days have been stuck standing shoulder to shoulder with thousands of other people WHO ALL JUST GOT BACK FROM OVERSEAS for as much as 6 hours or more while they were checked for illness!
So how many people in that crowd is everyone with the virus going to have infected in six hours of standing next to thousands of other people?
How long after being infected does it take to test positive?
How many of the people infected while waiting to get out of that crowd, got infected, tested negative, but in a week will now be positive?
One infected person shedding virus under those conditions might have infected hundreds of others under such conditions! It may be that is is likely they did so, and even inevitable.
So making them all stand there like that, in airports all over the country, then being told they are negative for the virus and sent on their way, even though many of them just GOT the damn virus while waiting but now think they are OK, means that each of those newly infected in that crowd will not be infecting many others.
That is the grim math of contagion, seemingly unknown to whoever decided this was a good idea.
If it was the same person or people who thought it was a good idea to keep all those people in “quarantine” on a cruise ship, I have to wonder…why do they still have that job?
Whoever made that decision should have been shown the door, along with anyone who did not object loudly who call themselves public health professionals!
It honestly looks to me like a very large number of people are there own worst enemies in this situation, and a lot of people who are supposed to know what they are doing, and have the job of looking out for the rest of us, are in fact very stupid and not just unqualified but a menace to public health instead.
Typo:
“…infected in that crowd will now be infecting many others.”
Should have said.
Neo
March 12, 2020 at 8:05 am
————
Neo,
allow me to straight forward tell you, that for what ever reason, the Spanish point and stand still applies as realistic.
Any thing as per means of science and proper approach at that tells;
that this coronavirus pandemic is as mild as the mildest seasonal flu.
At this point in time the only actual meaning question remaining to be answered is;
How long it will take for the WHO to really engage, as it supposed to,
in an actual act of “killing” this “hazard”, the very serious hazard of the insane scare mongering global non justifiable panic.
This pandemic is real , but also it is real that it is as mild for not saying insignificant in its health danger to global population.
In the end of the day when all said and done, the fatality of this viral infection,
in consideration of attribution will still be within the error range, no really truly as proparly detectable problem.
Time only will tell, but still it hangs on in the next coming move from WHO.
When WHO will have to accommodate the proposition of its existence as with some merit there or not.z*cx
Neo
March 12, 2020 at 8:05 am
WHO already declared the condition as pandemic, clearly meaning that the fatality rate of this virus actually happens to be far to low in reality then the very early stage estimation of 2%, which got to be considered as far too high in the consideration of the real one, realistic one there,
under the circumstances.
In my understanding this is not a joke, and hey we will not need to wait for the end of this century to know.
In one month, or most two, we will know.
No any fatality reaching at 1%, or even 0.5% at the end of the day, or the end of this silly horrific movie,
then heads have really to roll, as no excuse under any circumstance there.
But hey, ticme only will tell at the end of the day.
cheers
No an
Yep. Nothing but a flu.
Still …..China has flu every year too. It IS curious that it locked down entire cities this year yet not other ‘flu’ years?
What are they up to?
“the coronavirus is nothing but a flu.”
Hmm yes. Just a flu.
China gets the flu every year too. They don’t lock down cities of 10 million people every year. How come this year?
If you want to know why China would shut down their country for a cold that has infected 0.0067% of their population, and the media acting like a giant asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, just look at the results.
Panic has left the station. Whether you like it or not we’re riding this train, even Forest Gump is.
Apparently, COVID-19 doesn’t like sunlight or temperatures over 77 (explains no outbreak in tropics)
Take your pick, if Climate Change doesn’t kill us, the Coronavirus will.
Blovation!
The Wuhan virus isn’t going to change our social interactions other than on a temporary basis.
The virus will either be contained, or it will become common like the flu. And we should know within a few months time. Once either one of those things happens, then society will get back to normal and accept a certain amount of deaths from Wuhan every year like we do the flu now, if it cannot be contained.
The real disruptions to our society are right now and are because we are trying to contain the virus. If it can’t be contained, then draconian measures to contain it will no longer be necessary.
Dr. Seigle said this morning that the Wuhan virus can stay airborne for several hours and can be infectious on surfaces for several hours, although apparently it can live for a longer period on some surfaces but is only infectious for a short period of that time (that’s my understanding of what was said).
The Covid Family of viruses account for about a third of sicknesses referred to as the common cold. Good luck containing the spread of the common cold. The real damage being done is the spread of the newest crowd madness, not from the newest cold virus.
I recall an old episode of the original Star Trek TV show, and Bones (Dr. McCoy) of the USS Enterprise says to Spock and Captain Kirk…”Jim, it is the 24th Century and we still haven’t found a cure for the common cold”. I have a sense this has always been with us at some level, and always will be, but it mutates so often, will be hard to get a grip on it. Maybe this version has been circulating as a cold virus for a bit, and now just mutated into the latest version. COVID 2.0 next season might be a lot worse and come for the healthy young ones, just like the H1N1 Spanish Flu type of influenza virus did, which is similar to bird flu of today, mainly H5N1 and H5N2.
Any form of influenza can be lethal to young and old people. Bad colds are typically only lethal to the old and frail or those with underlying diseases which compound it, and Covid-19 has been no different. I doubt it will be the first cold virus ever to be especially lethal to anyone but this group of people.
Yes and what could happen as COVID as the talking heads say there is already community based transmission in the US and most certainly could be in say Iran.
What people do not get is COVID is flu like in its ability to spread and it has the microbiological connections to attack and permanently damage the lungs.
So this is not an illness a person will want to get.
Everyone that get a lung attack, will want full hospital treatment to minimize the risk of permanent lung damage.
The only ‘solution’ now is country quarantine, stopping all travel from any problem source until it is clear there is no more cases at source.
What we need is a vaccination to reduce cases.
Another hope, is there is talk about a breakthrough cure, that is effective against all corvid viruses, as it attacks a backdoor weakness in the virus.
The virus is established when there is community based transmission, where the infection is from local sources that are not traceable to foreign sources.
“ or it will become common like the flu.”
How can it not? It is now in many world locations and a 14 day quarantine takes away only ~97%
of possible sources. Thus, the spread is slowed. That’s good if you need an ICU bed. Otherwise it just means you get the virus a few months or a year or two later. You still get it.
Also, a Copper surface was mentioned as having a 4 hour time. How much Cu in the mix was not mentioned. Something to think about as we adjust to this.
Stainless steel — the last great surface material — allows for a much longer life of the virus.
Silver too has some type of antibacterial and perhaps antivirus properties. How does that technically work? What is the mechanism that makes Copper and Silver work like that? My Grandmother used to put a silver dollar in the milk can 55 years ago after I had hand cranked the separator to get the cream from the cow I just milked so she could make butter.
Surface (& aerosol) duration report free full text is available on-line, titled:
“Aerosol and surface stabiliy of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-19) compared to SARS-CoV-1”.
The half life of “Wuhan” corona-virus is detailed, as well as the maximum time found viable. There is also information of the viral titer (counts) change over time.
The reason copper surfaces do not allow viruses to survive long contact is that copper material is not pure elemental copper. The copper material is copper II (two) & not solid; there are angstroms of distance between the copper atoms in configuration (I think the copper in copper sheets’ array is tetragonal).
Viral capsids can array with that scale of angstroms between copper II & bind to some copper. The result is that copper denaturalizes protein(s) of the viral capsid & subsequently the virus loses integrity, leading to destructive loss of interior molecules.
It was also said temperatures above 80 degrees F. kill the virus. American Natives used “Sweat Lodges” and both Saunas and Heated Jacuzzis or baths in as hot of water as you can comfortably take it, for as long as you can will raise your core temperature enough to kill it. Drinking warm fluids helps like tea or coffee or just water will kill it. Jethro Kloss “Back to Eden” had a section on steam saunas for curing people of many things, that he wrote in the early 1900s.
I get the impression that there are different strains of the virus; some weaker. some more virulent,
With the Jenner cow pox/smallpox discovery, I’d think it would be a good idea for young healthy people to hang around people with mild infections, in hopes of being protected against the more virulent strains,
If you want to know about the antimicrobial and antiviral properties of copper, I would recommend ignoring people who have no idea what they are talking about, say things that are patently false but sound sciency and jargony, and in general are wrong.
Copper II refers copper oxides or copper sulfate.
Copper II compounds are very definitely solids, when they form a surface coating of an oxide.
Copper sheeting is almost pure elemental copper and is antimicrobial, but since it quickly oxidizes and is rather soft, it is generally not used for industrial or medical antimicrobial touch surfaces.
It’s structure is face-centered cubic.
Pure copper does not make a good doorknob, for example, but it does act much faster to kill viruses and bacteria than alloys.
Instead, alloys like brass, bronze, Muntz metal, etc, are used.
The full details of the reasons for the antimicrobial properties are not completely understood and are very much a subject of ongoing inquiry, but it is well known that there are many mechanisms of such action, and that nearly every compound containing a proportion of copper has these properties, and that it is true for metallic surfaces & ionic forms in solution, that it kills a wide range of types of microorganisms from viruses to bacteria and fungi and many more, and that the property is a general one of a variety of related metals, such as mercury, lead, zinc, silver, and even iron, gold, aluminum and others.
The oligodynamic effect is a well-known property of metals, and refers to general biocidal activity.
Copper sulfate is a much used algicide, fungicide, and bactericide, but the current interest is in the action of metallic copper used as surfaces that are frequently touched.
Metal surfaces in general act as catalysts for chemical reactions, lowering the activation energy of a wide range of reaction types. This effect is exploited in catalytic converters and many other industrial applications.
The particular lattice structure or spacing is not what is important, it is the atomic structure of the metals themselves. Copper, for example, binds to amino groups in the monomer sub-units of proteins (denaturalizing is a bad thing, but this has nothing to do with international immigration), disrupting the structure of proteins by causing them to unfold or refold in a way which renders them non-functional. This is called denaturing.
But there is a lot more going on than that.
That would never explain how brass surfaces kill pathogenic bacteria, spores, eukaryotic and prokaryotic cells, fungi, molds, worms,etc.
Among the mechanisms are such processes as causing oxidation-reduction reactions, free radical formation, binding with lipid and protein molecules, entering cells and causing oxidative damage, and disrupting membrane structure and integrity, causing dissication, loss of structural integrity, and leakage of the contents of the cell.
Stainless steel does not have antimicrobial properties because it is made to be very non-reactive, hence “stainless”.
Even after is is alloyed, it is then passivated even further, thus insuring an even greater degree of unreactivity than the basic alloy would otherwise have.
Does this mean no more Climate Change conferences?
They won’t need CC conferences anymore Susan, this corona virus is doing the intended job much faster.
Maybe a trial-run to see the affects of a compulsory world-wide green new-deal. Conceived and sponsored by the marxists w/the virus engineered & released by the Chi-coms.
Just musing…..
PTS Advance is a headhunter. What does this guy know about energy? Not much. How much sense does this article make? Not much.
Incorrect. People have been traveling for vacations, staying in hotels and eating in restaurants for as long as we have written records. They do it a lot more now of course, but it’s absolutely wrong to claim the hospitality industry did not exist before fossil fuels.
Alan,
Correct. And keep in mind that (at least in developed nations) most jobs today are much more mentally taxing. This requires a greater percentage of leisure time away from work to maintain good mental and emotional health. I tend to agree with Autograph: “For every minute I have to work, I need a minute of play.”
most jobs today are much more mentally taxing
Incessant paperwork can do that. Sometimes plowing a field or digging a ditch would be preferable/more rewarding.
Alan Watt: I thought the same. A couple of his points are obviously wrong and show a complete lack of research, very lazily written. Just one item- a piece of the “hospitality industry” is also known as the oldest profession! He writes like an academic who knows the answer ahead of time, “humans use too much”, and he’s cherry-picking items that confirm his answer. Makes him appear to be really smart, without all that damn research. The editor in his head should have seen the problem with a phrase like “Corona virus shows us the way.” We know very little about it, but we know enough to realize that it shows us a way NOT to go. Glad I read it though, now I’ll use the gimlet eye when I see CFACT, whatever that is.
“Corona virus shows us the way.”
So does Greta. !
Just In hot off the press: PM Justin Trudeau’s wife just returned from London and is exhibiting signs of the COVID-19 virus, and both will begin a self quarantine working his Prime Minister job from home. I am not kidding..just heard it on the Bloomberg Business Channel. Not sure if they did the test to confirm, but all the same symptoms.
Hope she
diddidn’t give Justin a big kiss on arrival at the airport.Justin shook hands at airport landing. Children have immunity.