“A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans”
was posted by
Guest post by Mike Jonas,
Quadrant Online has just published a remarkable article – A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans – in which a highly-qualified climate scientist and modeller makes it abundantly clear that the climate models, as coded and used currently, can never predict future climate.
The article is at https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/09/a-climate-modeller-spills-the-beans/ and the link appeared in comments by Pat in earlier WUWT posts. [Thanks, Pat .. I thought the information was worthy of an article here in its own right, so this is it.]
Dr. Mototaka Nakamura is a top-level oceanographer and meteorologist who worked from 1990 to 2014 on cloud dynamics, and on atmospheric and ocean flows. He has published about 20 climate papers on fluid dynamics, and he has now quite simply had enough of the shenanigans that pass for climate science and climate modelling.
In June, he put out a small book in Japanese on the sorry state of climate science, titled “Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis“. But behind that mild title is a hard-hitting exposure of the uselessness of climate models for forecasting. In a sane world, it would kill the current set of climate models absolutely stone dead. But of course, at present the world is anything but sane.
Dr Nakamura goes into detail about many of the failures of climate models. Some of those failures are well-known at WUWT, and I suspect that they are just as well-known by some of the modellers. eg.
These models completely lack some critically important climate processes and feedbacks, and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction.
I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.
Ad hoc representation of clouds may be the greatest source of uncertainty in climate prediction. A profound fact is that only a very small change, so small that it cannot be measured accurately…in the global cloud characteristics can completely offset the warming effect of the doubled atmospheric CO2.
Anyone studying real cloud formation and then the treatment in climate models would be flabbergasted by the perfunctory treatment of clouds in the models.
… but it is well worth reading the full Quadrant Online article – and sending the link on to all your friends and of course to all your enemies.