Essay by Eric Worrall
“… as a major energy producer, the United States will continue to post relatively solid growth rates … while the … euro area is significantly weaker. …”
Germany: growth halves as state drives investment
…‘The only reason the economy is growing at all this year is public spending,’ the chief economist makes clear. Household demand is weakening and companies have recently become more cautious. Rising government expenditure, for example through higher defence spending and the special fund, is instead propping up economic growth.
…
Internationally, the DIW forecasts that, as a major energy producer, the United States will continue to post relatively solid growth rates of just over 2 percent, while the outlook for the euro area is significantly weaker.
…Europe does not produce enough energy itself and is therefore dependent on imports. Any price shocks associated with this weigh on the economy and erode purchasing power. The DIW does not expect a supply shock, arguing that security of supply for oil and gas is not at risk, particularly thanks to a diversified set-up.
But highly energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, steel and paper are suffering from rising electricity and gas prices. On DIW assumptions, this means Germany is being hit harder than other European countries.
…
Read more: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/06/10/germany-growth-halves-as-state-drives-investment
I asked Claude.ai, my current favourite AI de jour “What frackable oil and gas deposits in Europe are currently not being exploited due to environmental regulations?”
The answer was worse than I expected.
Here’s a comprehensive overview of Europe’s untapped frackable deposits and the regulatory landscape blocking their exploitation:
Europe’s Unexploited Shale Oil & Gas Deposits
The Big Picture
Europe has more recoverable shale gas than the United States, according to estimates. However, the only major fracking activity on the continent is in Ukraine. Exploration and production of European shale gas reserves were broadly shelved after 2015, though by 2023 European leaders were debating whether to revisit shale gas policies. OilPrice.comglobalsecurity
According to a 2013 study by Germany’s Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, there are an estimated 14 trillion cubic meters of technically recoverable shale gas reserves in Europe. globalsecurity
Country-by-Country Breakdown
🇫🇷 France — Full ban France has the second-largest estimated shale gas resources in Europe, at approximately 3.9 trillion cubic meters. Public opposition led the French parliament to ban hydraulic fracturing outright. The deposits lie primarily in the Paris Basin and the south of France, and remain completely off-limits. globalsecurityThe Jamestown Foundation
🇵🇱 Poland — Commercially unviable / regulatory barriers Poland has the largest estimated shale gas resources in Europe at approximately 4.2 trillion cubic meters. However, the first exploration wells showed disappointing results, prompting some operators to leave. A punitive tax regime and insistence that foreign companies work with local partners did much to dampen enthusiasm, although the government has since made its regulatory regime more attractive to overseas investors. Known deposits are concentrated near Warsaw, Radom, and the Baltic coast. globalsecurity + 2
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Moratorium (de facto ban) UK shale is estimated to hold 17,600 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 728 bcm is judged technically recoverable — enough to satisfy the UK’s gas needs for about a decade. In 2019, the government ended its support for fracking after the authority supervising the oil and gas industry determined that “it is not possible with current technology to accurately predict the probability of tremors associated with fracking.” The main plays are in Lancashire (Bowland Shale) and Yorkshire. Scientific AmericanOilPrice.com
🇩🇪 Germany — Moratorium / effective ban Germany has previously banned fracking. The North German Basin and parts of North Rhine-Westphalia have identified shale potential, but the regional parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia pledged a moratorium pending more information. OilPrice.comThe Jamestown Foundation
🇧🇬 Bulgaria — Indefinite ban Under pressure from environmental groups, the Bulgarian parliament adopted an indefinite moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, and the government revoked a shale gas exploration permit granted to US company Chevron for deposits in northeastern Bulgaria. The Jamestown Foundation
🇪🇸 Spain — Regional bans Most shale gas reserves are located in the Basque-Cantabrian basin in the north of Spain. In 2013, the region of Cantabria banned fracking, but the Spanish constitutional court declared the ban unconstitutional. Regional politics remain a major obstacle despite federal-level ambiguity. European Parliament
🇳🇱 Netherlands — Suspended Shale gas exploration in the Netherlands has been suspended pending a study on its environmental and social effects. European Parliament
🇷🇴 Romania — Abandoned after protests Major petroleum companies pulled out of nascent shale drilling efforts in Romania, usually citing disappointing geological results and significant public opposition. Scientific American
Why It’s Not Being Exploited
The barriers are a mix of outright legal bans and practical/commercial deterrents:
- Seismic risk — induced earthquakes from fracking operations have been a repeated trigger for moratoria (UK, Germany).
- Water contamination fears — high population density in Europe means aquifers are far more politically sensitive than in the US.
- EU environmental law — the European Commission issued a recommendation requiring that member states undertaking fracking implement proper safety and environmental safeguards, given that risks can extend across borders. EUR-Lex
- Commercial viability — geology across much of Europe has proven less favourable than initially hoped, and tighter well-spacing requirements due to population density raise costs significantly.
- Energy transition policy — with the EU committed to net-zero goals and phasing out Russian gas via LNG and renewables, political will to invest in new fossil fuel infrastructure is very limited.
The overall picture is that Europe has the resource but has made a largely deliberate (if contested) choice not to exploit it.
Source: https://claude.ai/share/a5b0ed47-42b4-47fe-b081-0fc74aeb2af6
This Eurozone disaster is entirely self inflicted. President Trump warned Europe back in 2018 they faced economic disaster and geopolitical blackmail if they continued relying on imported energy from Russia instead of developing their own resources.
If Germany had elected a chancellor in 2021 who was as enthusiastic about fossil fuel extraction as President Trump, the gas fields in the North Rhine-Westphalia and North German Basin would right now be bringing price relief to ordinary people and invigorating the German economy.
But Germany instead chose economic stagnation and poverty. They chose a government which is borrowing money and will soon be printing money to prop up their green fantasy, rather than politicians who might have set this disaster right.
