UK: New "Beast from the East" could cause one of the coldest winters in three decades

From Yahoo News

George Martin  Yahoo News UKSeptember 8, 2019

The Beast from the East brought vast amounts of snowfall last year. (PA)
The Beast from the East brought vast amounts of snowfall last year. (PA)

The UK could be set to experience one of the coldest winters in three decades, scientists have warned.

Meteorologists say an even more extreme version of the “Beast from the East” could see parts of the country hit with blizzard-like conditions throughout much of January and February next year.

Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures, scientists have been able to predict one of the longest-range UK weather forecasts ever recorded – according to The Sunday Times.

Mark Saunders, professor of climate prediction at University College London (UCL), said: “This would rank the 2020 January-February central England temperature as the coldest winter since 2013.”

Scientists believe this winter could be among the coldest the UK has experienced in the last 30 years. (PA)
Scientists believe this winter could be among the coldest the UK has experienced in the last 30 years. (PA)

“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”

“There is a 57% chance the central England temperature will be colder than in 2018, thus making it the coldest January-February since 2013,” he added.

The scientists believe that the jet stream, the high-altitude wind that pushes weather systems across the Atlantic to Britain, will be diverted to hit Britain over the winter.

Full article here

HT/Sonya P

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me
September 9, 2019 6:14 am

Stock up on sun tan lotion for January then.

Bryan A
Reply to  me
September 9, 2019 9:52 am

Kids just aren’t going to know what Snow is
Snow will be a rare and wonderful event

Big T
Reply to  Bryan A
September 9, 2019 11:15 am

Lets go ice skating on the Holland canals like the good old days!

Reply to  Big T
September 9, 2019 1:07 pm

Let’s not let the warmists forget that such a winter, with the previous reported record hot temperatures this year, means that AVERAGE temperatures are not increasing. That means, yet again, no evidence of any statistically significant CAGW. Also, from this report a similar cold winter occurred 30 years ago. That means the climate hasn’t changed.

Apologies for the amateurish sarcastic interpretation, but I’ve only used the same approach that the warmists will use to “substantiation” their theories using this evidence!

Loydo
Reply to  macawber
September 9, 2019 11:22 pm

Opinions aren’t data macawber. You can’t just rely on something showing up. Post your data.

Enginer01
Reply to  macawber
September 10, 2019 10:02 am

[comments welcomed]
My understanding of climatology tells me that the major characteristics of a change in climate (in this case, cooling into the Solar Minimum, potential Dalton Minimum) is an increase in parameter standard deviations (wider hot-cool swings, etc) increased earthquakes and volcanic activity.
When my friends tell me global warming is getting worse, I point out that it is their memory that is getting worse. Remember the cold-cold streaks LAST winter?

Sara
Reply to  me
September 9, 2019 11:11 am

Hey, Mods!!! You can’t show those photos from last winter’s snows!!! Those just put a crimp in the entier global warming shtick. The Greenbeans will never recover from it! How can you be that cruel???

Powder’s deep right now in Chile and Argentina, if anyone is interested. I’m waiting for the first snow & ski reports from the northwest US of A.

This forecast is so bodaciously exciting! If only we could see the dismay on the faces of the Unbelievers!

I was thinking it’s about time to get out the slow cooker and make a pot of braised oxtails, plus some sweet potatoes and a pumpkin pie.

wws
Reply to  me
September 9, 2019 3:18 pm

Stock up on sun tan lotion for January then.”

That was my first thought as well. My “faith” in long term weather forecasting is about the same as my faith in astrology.

boffin77
Reply to  me
September 10, 2019 1:46 pm

ahhh WUWT please don’t indulge in long-term weather forecasts. If I want that I can buy the Farmer’s Almanac, which is right about 52% of the time, I’m told.

Robert B
Reply to  boffin77
September 10, 2019 4:08 pm

Whether it will be below or above average?

Brent Hargreaves
September 9, 2019 6:18 am

Scientists mein Arsch.

F1nn
Reply to  Brent Hargreaves
September 9, 2019 11:00 am

Sorry, it´s

Scheissenstists mein arsch.

stob
Reply to  F1nn
September 9, 2019 12:27 pm

Scheissenstists, thats not german at all, still rofl.

Curious George
Reply to  Brent Hargreaves
September 9, 2019 1:10 pm

Is there a reason to take this more seriously than the Global Warming?

Bindidon
Reply to  Curious George
September 9, 2019 2:24 pm

Curious George

“Is there a reason to take this more seriously than the Global Warming?”

No. Last year, Accuweather predicted winter storms for Northern Germany at the beginning of 2019. Pfff.

We had for the second time in sequence a supermild winter near Berlin.

Ron Long
September 9, 2019 6:19 am

Cold and snow are weather events, heat and drought are climate change. It will take a descent into a LIA or full-blown glacial cycle to get through to the masses. Maybe they will finally get BREXIT finished and blame the cold on that? Never doubt the ingenuity of the left, they might be dumb but they are not stupid.

Cam
Reply to  Ron Long
September 9, 2019 8:38 am

Don’t worry, they blame the shifting jet stream, which the article says will be the cause of this cold, on climate change so any weather event that is unusual can be blamed on it.

Bryan A
Reply to  Cam
September 9, 2019 9:54 am

how boring life would be if ALL weather events were “Normal”

Bloke down the pub
Reply to  Bryan A
September 9, 2019 10:25 am

One thing that is ‘Normal’ is that at this time of year, the msm publish weather forecasts that claim it’s going to be the coldest winter on record.

Bryan A
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
September 9, 2019 12:06 pm

doesn’t climate change always seem to cause the ___est ______ on record?

Bryan A
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
September 9, 2019 12:08 pm

It certainly has caused the Drollest Dums on record

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Cam
September 10, 2019 5:52 am

see the Aussie Bom same shit different day
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/in-for-a-roasting-australia-on-brink-of-apocalyptic-conditions/news-story/73d731e4a07f6b9c39b18897faa0e085
of course its happened before in 2002 or so but didnt get a single mention then
this is maybe? a 2mth event and then poof its gone
funny that!

Robert B
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 10, 2019 4:13 pm

I have a 90s National Geographic with an article on Russian firefighters who have been parachuted into Siberia to fight large forest fires since the time if Stalin.

F1nn
Reply to  Ron Long
September 9, 2019 10:57 am

No.No.
Cold and snow are climate change, heat and drought are global warming.
Remember, they had to change the title because it wasn´t warming?
They talked about warming, yes, but that is only half the blame.
That´s why they changed the title to climate change because now all weather events are covered.
Redgreens are kinda slow, but they are not stupid.

JMichna
Reply to  F1nn
September 9, 2019 2:16 pm

F1nn.
Re “Cold and snow are climate change, heat and drought are global warming.”…

You’ve almost got it right… it’s “Cold and snow are ‘weather,’ heat and drought are global warming.”

Loydo
Reply to  F1nn
September 9, 2019 11:26 pm

They? Stop making stuff up. What are their names? Oh right, I forgot, you’re just repeating something some dude said on a blog.

beng135
Reply to  Loydo
September 10, 2019 6:39 am

What are their names?

Loydo, for starters.

Sunny
September 9, 2019 6:20 am

So much for global warming…

Reply to  Sunny
September 9, 2019 8:36 am

‘So much for global warming…’

Does this really matter given how the socialist/alarmist mind rationalizes their otherwise irrational positions? Since the fear of climate change is used as an excuse to implement regime change and move a free market society to one of centralized control, it doesn’t matter what the weather does. Normally extreme weather, whether hot or cold can still cause fear and will still be blamed on CO2 emissions arising from the success of free market capitalism.

DocSiders
Reply to  co2isnotevil
September 9, 2019 11:04 am

If ice storms lock up wind turbans and cover thousands of acres of solar panels for more than a week, we could actually see a significant death toll from…the things the fraudsters are promoting to fight Climate Change.

Actual Climate Related Deaths could occur.

Annie
Reply to  DocSiders
September 9, 2019 6:00 pm

Wind turbines will be pretty useless if they are capped by turbans methinks. Let alone if there is a lack of wind and plenty of ice.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Annie
September 10, 2019 5:55 am

might make em look better though?

Mickey Reno
September 9, 2019 6:22 am

Even when the “news” represents a blow to Climate Scientology, something of which I’m very much in favor, it’s just WRONG to say a prediction is successful before the result has been observed and that observation compared against reality. But then again, the headline is from Yahoo News, the folks trying to out-Guardian the Graun, so people should generally expect little more than pure shite (spelled in the British fashion, as appropriate to this topic).

Rocketscientist
Reply to  Mickey Reno
September 9, 2019 8:34 am

I agree. How much of a news worthy event is the “longest range forecast ever recorded”?
What exactly is the significance of the longest range forecast? Any fool can make a forecast about the future and usually make them well out into the future as well, so as not to be embarrassed too soon.
I suppose it merely stands on record that the UK Met has, on this date, made its winter forecast. Now it’s merely a matter of time to assess their clairvoyance and prognosticating abilities.

What’s there track record so far?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 10:22 am

See above re “sun tan lotion”.

Mark A Luhman
Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 10:52 am

” What’s there track record so far?” Have not looked closely at but if their track record on long ranger forecast are like the US weather service. It gone from bad to worse.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  Mark A Luhman
September 9, 2019 12:22 pm

The US folks mostly forecast probabilities, such as —
chance of cold = 1/3
chance of normal = 1/3
chance of warm = 1/3

Translation: “We don’t know.”

Darcy
Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 4:09 pm

The Old Farmers Almanac have been publishing predictions for the last 200 years. Their 2020 prediction has been out for awhile. Are’nt they the “longest range forecast ever recorded”?

Editor
September 9, 2019 6:24 am

I thought the Met Office gave up on seasonal forecasts (barbeque summer and all that).

Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures,

I don’t always want to break ground, but when I do, I use lightning and floods. Analyzing sea temperatures is okay for breaking wind.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Ric Werme
September 9, 2019 8:30 am

The new groundbreaking analysis is foolproof. All the forecasters make their predictions and then they talley these up. If the majority go for a mild winter, then they make a bitter cold one the official forecast. They reviewed all their other forecasts and came up with this model.

About 50yrs ago or more there was a phenomenal diviner in Toronto that the ladies (sadly, I’m told we don’t have ladies anymore) went to to have the fortuneteller forecast the sex of their soon to be born child. This fellow had a 100% success rate. In his old age, he confided to a friend how he did this. He did a variety of measurements, chatting continuously in a convoluted way, saying this has factors that indicate “boy”, this one “girl”. He would alternate girl boy, throw in confounding factors and non sequiturs and the last word he uttered was simply boy or girl and he fell silent. When they left his conjuring room, he wrote in a ledger the lady’s name and initials, date of visit and the opposite to his prediction! When any dissatisfied customer came for a refund, he would feign no memory of her, but would dig out his ledger and ask are you this Mrs Wilson. I’ve had several.

He would have been a natural consensus climate scientist.

Sunny
September 9, 2019 6:25 am

Also, how can they know the weather so far in advance? They get daily weather wrong, but weather months in advance is always supposedly right??

David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  Sunny
September 9, 2019 9:04 am

It’s complicated, but they are not saying this will happen. It’s just a possibility that current atmospheric behaviour has made more likely

TonyL
Reply to  Sunny
September 9, 2019 9:22 am

Hi Sunny,
I see you have been studying all things climate. I found a nice resource you might be interested in, possibly even for downloading and saving. It is called “The Skeptics Handbook” volumes I and II. They are short, easy to read, and packed with solid information. Get both volumes.
One place they are hosted is at the wonderful Jo Nova website:
http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/
They are pdf files so open them up in a new browser window and then File-Save As, and you have them.

James francisco
Reply to  Sunny
September 9, 2019 1:37 pm

They were pretty far off on the recent track prediction of Hurricane Dorian too.

Loydo
Reply to  Sunny
September 9, 2019 11:49 pm

“Also, how can they know the weather so far in advance? They get daily weather wrong, but weather months in advance is always supposedly right??”

But there’s the genious of this post: either its crystal ball bs, or its “so much for global warming”.
Nice work Charles.

rbabcock
September 9, 2019 6:26 am

Not to plug WeatherBell (I guess I just did), but they have developed a model based on analogs to prior global sea surface temperatures and global setups going into winter and have been pretty good at getting the winter forecasts right over the past few years. Certainly more so than the US Climate Prediction Center that basically predicts the opposite of what actually happens.

So ground-breaking, no.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  rbabcock
September 9, 2019 12:30 pm

analogs

Also done for Oregon by Pete Parsons of the Dept. of Forestry.

https://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

Donald Boughton
September 9, 2019 6:34 am

Time to buy additional sets of “long johns” and woolly socks. Low temperature are not a problem if one dresses
accordingly. In the UK we occasionally get winter deaths of fools standing on railway station platforms, wearing only a summer suit, shirt and tie, due to hypothermia.

michael hart
Reply to  Donald Boughton
September 9, 2019 7:53 am

Don’t forget Newcastle Utd fans insisting on going topless when their team (occasionally) gets to play away in Moscow mid-winter.

R Taylor
September 9, 2019 6:37 am

George Martin says winter is coming. What next, The Night of the Living Dead Who Say Ni?

Rocketscientist
Reply to  R Taylor
September 9, 2019 8:25 am

Not to worry, they can be appeased with dead bushes.

shrnfr
Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 11:36 am

Scratch that.

Krishna Gans
September 9, 2019 6:41 am

The British weather forecast was always very exact /sarc 😀

Bear
September 9, 2019 6:45 am

I seem to remember that the Met’s long range forecasts have had pretty abysmal success in the past.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Bear
September 9, 2019 2:07 pm

My theory on weather prediction is that they have a 75% chance of being correct about tomorrow’s weather.
A 50% chance of being right about the weather 3 days hence ( I’m being kind there).
Once you’re out a week you’ll have much better luck assuming the opposite of what they predict.

David Wells
September 9, 2019 6:47 am

If its cold its weather if its warmish its climate change, makes sense.

David Wells
September 9, 2019 6:49 am

It is cold its weather, if its warmish its climate change, makes sense.

RonS
September 9, 2019 6:51 am

Either way, the alarmists will blame it on “climate change”.

PaulH
Reply to  RonS
September 9, 2019 8:00 am

Yep, they’ll simply designate it “extreme weather” that fits their predictions of catastrophe.

Will
September 9, 2019 6:59 am

My wife is a teacher who, a few years ago, was standing at the front doors of her school with her principal. They were watching the swirling snow of a major snow storm during a regular Canadian winter. He turned to my wife and said: “If this isn’t proof of global warming I don’t know what is.”

This is the powerful delusion we face that has infiltrated a large proportion of our species. Climate Jonestown on a global scale.

icisil
Reply to  Will
September 9, 2019 7:16 am

Climate Jonestown is the best encapsulation of the phenomenon I’ve heard.

Joel
Reply to  Will
September 9, 2019 2:48 pm

I hope she said, “I have to agree.”

Matthew Schilling
Reply to  Joel
September 16, 2019 7:23 am

I think it was the principal who said, “You have to agree.”

Dodgy Geezer
September 9, 2019 6:59 am

I see that this is “Meteorologists say” and “Scientists say”…..

Mark Broderick
September 9, 2019 7:00 am

Monkeys throwing darts at a Dartboard could have come up with that !

Right-Handed Shark
September 9, 2019 7:04 am

“The scientists believe that the jet stream, the high-altitude wind that pushes weather systems across the Atlantic to Britain, will be diverted to hit Britain over the winter.”

That’ll be the beast from the west, then. Amazingly, they can’t forecast into next week with any accuracy, but they can confidently predict 5 months into the future, because CO2.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
September 9, 2019 8:56 am

Not just 5 months into the future, but their UNIPCC computer predictions go right up to the end of this century, at least not being held accountable for their balls-ups, unlike the rest of us outside of the sphere of public sector operations, they’ll all be dead or happily retired on juicy pensions so can never really be held accountable, besides, their “calculations” were probablistic & therefore will never be wrong!;-)

mike the morlock
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
September 9, 2019 2:03 pm

Right-Handed Shark September 9, 2019 at 7:04 am

Lets see, its called “the beast from the east”. Doesn’t the jet stream come from the west?

michael

David Chappell
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
September 9, 2019 7:52 pm

“The scientists believe…”
Ah! The power of faith.

LdB
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
September 9, 2019 9:47 pm

Where did the air that is the wind come from 🙂

It is pretty straight forward, the more volume of air that something blows the more air it must pull from somewhere elsewhere on the planet AKA places other than the jet stream.

Gary Pearse
September 9, 2019 7:16 am

Well using no ground-breaking analysis, I’ve predicted another very cold winter in eastern Canada (and US), to add to those of the last few years. We had a cool summer with a sprinkling of very few 30C days, each always hyped as heatwaves by worried warmists.. At a cottage the beginning week of August in Eastern Ontario, we had ‘pleasant’ sunny days in the low 20s (20C =68F) and the nights dropped down to 8 -10C! The lakes didnt warm much this summer.

We have also had the coldest first week of September in many yrs, highs struggling to get to the high terns and nighttime temperatures in single digits. Last night it dipped to 4C (39F). Normally first frosts are a month or more away and all summer, nighttime temps were comfortably below 20C. From the house tap, the water has been refrigerator cold all summer.

The ground didnt warm up. Black currants fell off the vine unripened. T- min here hasn’t had the warming everyone talks about. I’m sure people in the Northern States are thinking about another brutal winter, too. Basically, I could comfortably forecast this weather for virtually all of Canada this year.

Loydo
Reply to  Gary Pearse
September 9, 2019 11:53 pm

There will be weather in Canada. In other (most) places its been unusually warm. Thats why they use averages.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Loydo
September 10, 2019 12:52 am

Averages, made up numbers!

MiloCrabtree
Reply to  Loydo
September 10, 2019 5:42 pm

“That’s why they use averages”.

Really?

Tropic Thunder…

ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 7:58 am

There will be weather in the UK.

Rocketscientist
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 8:40 am

And it will be either warm or cold with and without precipitation.

decnine
Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 9:24 am

And there will/may be Wind. Don’t forget the Wind. Pardon me.

Sara
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 11:26 am

There will definitely be weather in the USA, too. I’m predicting ski weather in the western states where the ski resorts are already prepping up for a boatload of powder, and snowshoeing and cross-country ski weather in the mid-section on groomed trails, plus outdoor ice skating in the parks. And then, when conditions are just right – ICEFISHING!!!!!!

Reply to  Sara
September 9, 2019 1:31 pm

It’s always ski weather in California. I was skiing 2 days ago in the Stanislaw National Forest North of Yosemite. No lifts, no grooming and no parks, but the corn snow was good enough to hike multiple laps above 10K feet. There were also more patches of snow left then I’ve ever seen this late in the summer with observations going back decades and spanning several years with more snow than we had last season.

Rocketscientist
Reply to  co2isnotevil
September 9, 2019 2:39 pm

I too have noted during my trips through the So Cal mountain ranges how many snow fields have remained on the north faces. And, they probably will last until it snows again.
(Yes, there are 10 thousand foot mountain peaks less than 40 miles from Los Angeles.)
How many years must a snow field exist before its called a glacier?

Reply to  Rocketscientist
September 9, 2019 5:36 pm

The USGS says it needs to be large enough to flow in order to be called a glacier, which they say is about 100′ thick, yet the Conness glacier at the Eastern edge of Yosemite doesn’t meet this criteria and nearly disappeared at the end of the most recent drought in 2015. On the other hand, I’ve seen snow only 20′-30′ deep flow enough to bend ski lift towers.

Most of the snow fields I ski during the summer months are still there when it starts to snow again, but are only a few feet thick. Even at the end of the most recent drought and after monsoon rains washed much of it away, there was still snow on the ground when it started snowing again. Every year since, the snow fields have grown and are now as large as I’ve ever seen them this time of year.

Stargrazzer (CCB)
September 9, 2019 8:24 am

More Climate Astrology; more guess work but using computers to justify it must be correct!

It has been said by someone more famous than I, that faster computers will just gives us the wrong predictions but faster!

Olen
September 9, 2019 8:33 am

57% chance, so 50/50. I would bet on the colder 50 and would not go boating. I hear you could freeze to death in the Channel, N Sea, Artic, Antarctic.

Rick C PE
September 9, 2019 8:36 am

“There is a 57% chance the central England temperature will be colder than in 2018, thus making it the coldest January-February since 2013,” he added.

Perhaps they should consult Pat Frank on how to determine uncertainty of their predictions. 57% +/- what? 10%, 20%, 50%? Their prediction is not much different from a 50/50 chance.

And colder than last winter, but warmer than 2013? Not really a very useful quantification.

Reply to  Rick C PE
September 9, 2019 12:31 pm

Not much different from
Mark Broderick – September 9, 2019 at 7:00 am – “Monkeys throwing darts at a Dartboard could have come up with that !”
Although perhaps the monkeys in the UCL “It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.” prediction, unlike Mark B’s simians, have also access to lots of good beer.

Auto, deeply impressed by the seventh coldest winter in thirty years!
Mods – /Sarc
And no real monkeys were made drunk/tipsy/inebriated/stoshers/Brahms-and-Liszt/newted (etc.) in this thought experiment.

Mark Broderick
Reply to  auto
September 9, 2019 2:51 pm

Auto, you are right..I should have said “drunk monkeys throwing darts at a Dartboard could have come up with that !” lol

cheers : )

Javier
September 9, 2019 8:38 am

There could be strong cold waves with lot of snow as that is possible every winter, but to have a very harsh winter it is helpful that the QBO is easterly (negative values) during the winter when solar activity is low, like in 2010. This winter the QBO is likely to be westerly (positive values), so the following winter is likely to be significantly colder.

Javier
Reply to  Javier
September 9, 2019 9:39 am

If anybody wants to know about the association between the Arctic Oscillation, the Quasibiennial Oscillation, and solar activity, it has been known for quite a while, but a good primer is given by Finnish professor Jarl Ahlbeck, as reported by Tallbloke in 2014:
https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf

This means the 2020-21 winter is expected to be quite harsh in the Northern Hemisphere. The 2019-20 winter is unlikely to be that bad, but negative or even Niña ENSO conditions might make it colder than some previous winters during Niño conditions.

Matt G
Reply to  Javier
September 12, 2019 2:37 pm

I agree with this, unless a strong El Nino developed the year after. (unlikely)

While solar activity is low even in either of these conditions (except strong ENSO either way) it favours high pressure blocks. Like last winter in the UK if the blocks are more to the South then the weather won’t be cold.

What tends to happen during low solar activity the usual zonal trends that the models (GFS, ECM, UKMO etc) often forecast to deliver, sometimes fail to occur at mid-range leaving blocked conditions.

SimonfromAshby
September 9, 2019 8:43 am

My Hollie tree is full of Berries – harsh winter on the way!

Loydo
Reply to  SimonfromAshby
September 9, 2019 11:55 pm

They wont grow where I live. Got any predictions about my next winter?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Loydo
September 10, 2019 4:18 am

So you tried to grow something that would not grow where you live? Sounds like an exercise in futility.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 9, 2019 9:04 am

Didn’t the Met office predict the dinosaurs would be unaffected by the KT impactor or am I just going by their usual track record?

If we do have a severe winter of the type their Ouija board says, I look forward to the sight of all those heavily subsidised electric cars being abandoned along the motorways. Reality bites…

…my holly bushes have no berries at all this year, unusual. It’s a mystery but it all turns out well in the end apparently.

dmacleo
September 9, 2019 9:07 am

did I read the linked, and subsequent links, correclty that the beast from the east was (in the areas in article) -10c to -15c ?
IOW approx 5 to 15 deg F.
crap….thats a good morning for me in winter.

Reply to  dmacleo
September 9, 2019 12:42 pm

dmacleo,
You are doubtless right, where you live.
I expect you get snow most winters.

But here, any snow – any visible snow at all – south of London, will inevitably catch Southern Railways completely off guard – despite several months’ notice, and winter coming round annually, as it does, every twelve months or so.
Trains will stop – as points will freeze; and a belated, non-heartfelt, apology will, eventually, be made to the poor dumb commuters. {I was one until retirement!}

Auto

Ulric Lyons
September 9, 2019 9:26 am

Most very cold January’s in the UK are on an easterly QBO phase, there’s a chance it could go easterly by then. But looking at the new warm blob growing in the northeast Pacific, that could help drive any cold deeper into the northeast US and then give a stormy mild and wet flow to the UK like in Jan-Feb 2014.

Joel Snider
September 9, 2019 9:30 am

So we have a ‘climate change’ – or ‘climate disruption’ – winter. Not Global Warming.

But I’ll bet you can still solve it by taxing targeted businesses, foods, and power sources.

Wil
September 9, 2019 9:32 am

Those British kids are going to have a hard time not knowing what snow is if it keeps snowing.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia
Reply to  Wil
September 9, 2019 9:39 am

I’m more worried about them not knowing what electricity was if these green fools have their way.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 9, 2019 10:31 am

Thread winner!

Well done, MCEA.

James francisco
Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Anglia
September 10, 2019 12:14 pm

Sounds like a fine book title. Our children won’t know what electricity is.

Johne Morton
September 9, 2019 9:47 am

“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”

“There is a 57% chance the central England temperature will be colder than in 2018, thus making it the coldest January-February since 2013,” he added.

How would any of this be remarkable? Seventh coldest in the past thirty years? Big deal. A 57% chance of being colder than two years ago (near even odds, too)? Again, so what. This is yet another giant nothingburger. Here in Colorado we just had the seemingly endless winter followed by a hot summer and another very warm September. Just like last year. I predict a 57% chance of a repeat of the previous season in the Western US, but the focus is always on the East Coast so no one cares anyway…

Bruce Cobb
September 9, 2019 9:49 am

Though you might want to, it probably wouldn’t be a good idea to refer to your mother-in-law as “the beast from the east”.

Walt D.
September 9, 2019 9:51 am

“There is a 57% chance ”
Senator Iselin in the Manchurian Candidate and the Heinz Ketchup Bottle.



ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 10:02 am

Out of an abundance of caution I would suggest closure of the last coal power plants before winter. We need large scale laboratories for climate studies and HG Wells outcomes on societies.

tim maguire
September 9, 2019 10:10 am

Headline: UK: New “Beast from the East” could cause one of the coldest winters in three decades

Details: “This would rank the 2020 January-February central England temperature as the coldest winter since 2013.” “It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”

Good to see the hysteria machine isn’t taking the day off.

In North America, we had a long winter and a mild summer so I’m not really down with a cold winter. The UK can keep it.

September 9, 2019 10:12 am

It is interesting that the impossible was widely published.

Fanakapan
September 9, 2019 10:16 am

coldest since 2013 ? Bahhh. Something like 47 or 63 would be needed to induce a squirm factor amongst the doomsayers 🙂

rah
Reply to  Fanakapan
September 9, 2019 10:37 am

Probably more like the LIA!

Javier
September 9, 2019 10:25 am

Theresa May has sought to cement some legacy in the weeks before she steps down as prime minister by enshrining in law a commitment to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, making Britain the first major economy to do so.
[The Grauniad]

The UK is now the official climate policies laboratory of the world since Australia pulled a 180°. Let’s see how harsh winters affect that decision, particularly when the lights go out as it happened in the UK train system recently. Show us the way, perfidious Albion!

ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 10:31 am

Professor of Climate Prediction

Is this more British comedy?

rah
September 9, 2019 10:35 am

Calling Dr. Viner. Calling Dr. David “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” Viner!!!

Smart Rock
September 9, 2019 11:08 am

Climate change headlines have been written before the event for some time now, just so that the message gets implanted before the reality, which my be quite different and not quite so alarming. Sometimes not alarming at all.

But this is going a lot further. Probably one more message that needs to be implanted in the public mind before that UN climate summit and COP25.

But really – the coldest winter since 2013? Is that supposed to worry anyone? Doesn’t anybody remember 1963?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHbJ5GR1KuA

And 1947 was said to have been worse.

And as for “the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years”, is that supposed to worry anyone?

Rhys Jaggar
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 9, 2019 1:37 pm

1947 was snowier, later. The snow started in early Feb and continued incessantly until floods started in the second week of March.

1962/3 was colder, starting around Christmas and continuing until late Feb.

They were both epic winters, but very different in nature.

Stephen Richards
September 9, 2019 11:28 am

This sort of unmitigated BS just discredits everyone associated with.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Stephen Richards
September 9, 2019 12:31 pm

+100

sonofametman
September 9, 2019 12:31 pm

Basic ‘news’ manufacturing.
The ‘beast from the east’ has a nice ring to it.
Picture of car in snow.
Article that seems to say something dramatic, but actually says naff all.
Wind up the ‘climate’ frenzy again in case anyone forgets that we’re all supposed to doomed.
Get more grant money.
Sell advertising space.
Rinse and repeat…..

john cooknell
September 9, 2019 12:34 pm

Its a long term seasonal forecast, I have yet to see one that is correct.

The UK climate is influenced by Latitude, geography and the North Atalantic Jet stream. The first two are fixed and nobody has any idea how the jetstream works.

TRM
September 9, 2019 12:35 pm

What is Dr Piers Corbyn’s forecast?

Ulric Lyons
Reply to  TRM
September 9, 2019 1:51 pm

£110 for 5 months ahead.

TRM
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
September 9, 2019 3:19 pm

I’m not that curious 🙂

His past calls have been way better than the gov ones.

colin
September 9, 2019 12:53 pm

did you folks notice that blizzard was so bad people were driving on the wrong side of the road… scary

Rod Evans
September 9, 2019 12:58 pm

Over the decades of UK long range weather forecasting that I have experienced, I can say without any hint of doubt, the Met Office and the media disseminating the Met’s long range forecast are more often wrong than right.
They simply do not know what is coming our way. The only certainty is we will experience some cooler weather than in the summer. Beyond that they have no reliable system of prediction.
I am waiting for Piers Corbyn’s long range forecast because he at least couches the prediction with caution and some uncertainty.
There is one fact I can be certain of. We are less able to sustain energy supply now than we were back in the 1960s. We no longer have coal fires, no longer have coal fired electricity plants, we no longer have fuel garages in every village each one holding emergency stocks. The just in time food supply and general goods into our supermarkets are not as robust as the previous small stores and corner shops plus farm supplies that existed in past times.
I hope for everyone’s sake we do not have severe protracted winter weather, because we are just not set up to cope with it.
Many thousands of people will die.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Rod Evans
September 9, 2019 10:47 pm

I recall those times. I also recall weather forecasts are now more severe ever since Micheal Fish in 1987 made little of the storm that was on it’s way. I recall having a coal bunker, fire and deliveries. I also recall town gas being replaced with natural gas, I also recall power worker strikes having to resort to paraffin lamps and heaters.

No-one was worried about climate change back then.

StephenP
September 9, 2019 1:07 pm

At the moment we are getting 6% of our electricity from wind. With a high pressure system and no sun to speak of, where’s that coal plant when you need it? Maybe we will have to fell a few more thousand acres of trees in the US, dry the chipped wood, ship it over and burn it in Drax. That still wouldn’t make up the shortfall.
Roll on the power cuts, or start up the backup diesels. It’s about time they earned their keep.

Rhys Jaggar
September 9, 2019 1:29 pm

What is the track record of Professor Saunders in predictions 4 months out?

He should not be headline news if he has not got an excellent track record, because if he has been at rhe forefront of oredictions ahead of Piers Corbyn, I am singularly unaware of it.

ResourceGuy
September 9, 2019 2:20 pm

They left off the “Unprecedented” term!!

ren
September 9, 2019 2:22 pm

In November, when sea ice begins to melt in the south, La Nina will develop. This means an extremely cold winter in North America (with a minimum of solar activity).
4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for September 2019
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201909.gif
NASA predicts the occurrence of La Nina conditions in November.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/archive/20190903.nino_summary_4.png

Old Woman of the North
September 9, 2019 4:55 pm

Didn’t Dr Pat Frank just find that all this prediction modelling was a crock? I guess none of these ‘modelling scientists understand what he has written.

TheFinalNail
September 9, 2019 8:42 pm

Monthly CET temperatures are available here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

Taking together all of the quotes from the main article, the Jan-Feb 2020 CET forecast is for colder than 2018 (+4.1C) but warmer than 2013 (+3.4C); so somewhere between +3.5 and +4.0C.

Average Jan-Feb temperature in CET over the past 30 years (1990-2019) is +4.8C with 1 standard deviation of +/- 1.2C, meaning that a ‘normal’ Jan-Feb in CET is expected to range between +3.6 to +6.0C.

The lowest end of this Jan-Feb 2020 forecast range (+3.5C) is just fractionally cooler than ‘normal’ for the past 30 years in CET and most of it is within the ‘normal’ range. How did this get to be a story?

Chad Jessup
September 9, 2019 9:30 pm

“Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures…”

That statement is something to be praised! The analysis of those two factors should have been in the forefront of long range forecasts many years ago.

Martin A
September 9, 2019 11:51 pm

Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures, scientists have been able to predict one of the longest-range UK weather forecasts ever recorded

S.L.B.T.M.

Johann Wundersamer
September 10, 2019 12:54 am

Brent Hargreaves September 9, 2019 at 6:18 am

Scientists mein Arsch.
___________________________________________________

Brent, diesen blog lesen zur Zeit:

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Dieser thread umfasst aktuell

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Glaubst Du wirklich 400,626,841 Menschen weltweit sind hier wegen lächerlicher max. 119 thoughts / ausländerfeindlicher Ausfälle gepaart mit kindlichen politischen Vorstellungen.

___________________________________________________

Brent, at the moment read this blog:

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Do you really think 400,626,841 people worldwide are here for ridiculous max. 119 thoughts / xenophobic insults paired with childish political ideas.

Johann Wundersamer
September 10, 2019 1:21 am

“Meteorologists say an even more extreme version of the “Beast from the East” could see parts of the country hit with blizzard-like conditions throughout much of January and February next year.”

_______________________________________________________

I agree with this opinion.

This is now the 3rd week in late August, early September with daytime temperatures 39° fahrenheit to max. 84°C.

During the night it rains persistently; that would correspond to extensive snowfall in winter.

Morning cloudy, inversion weather conditions: hardly any wind.

It stays that way until the next dormouse day and brings SNOW.

_______________________________________________________

Ich schliesse mich dieser Meinung an.

Das ist nun die 3.e Woche Ende August, Anfang September mit Tagestemperaturen 4°C bis max. 28, 29 °C.

Während der Nacht regnet es ausdauernd; das entspräche ausgiebiger Schneefall im Winter.

Vormittags bedeckt, Inversionswetterlage: kaum Wind.

Das bleibt so bis zum nächsten Siebenschläfer und bringt SCHNEE.

Arthur Clapham
September 10, 2019 4:04 am

I have been fortunate to have lived a long time, I have seen all kinds weather, bitterly cold, very hot,
Floods, drought, All the climate change nonsense, the biggest Con Trick I have ever witnessed.
It’s weather stupid!!!

September 10, 2019 5:55 am

“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”

7 out of 30 is about 25%.
So what they’re saying is that this winter might be within the 25% quartile of coldest winters in 30 years.
That’s saying almost nothing.

David Stone
September 10, 2019 6:24 am

It is a sunspot minimum, the sun is very quiet. It is also at the bottom of several solar cycles. I predict very cold winters in the NH. Global averages will be lower than previous years recently. I bet I am more right than the BBC, who were on about climate change ad nausiam today, AGAIN.

Bindidon
Reply to  David Stone
September 11, 2019 10:57 am

David Stone

Nice prediction!

But the head post above has to do with a single winter in a minuscule country.

Yes, maybe it will become a bit colder than usual in the UK during next winter… wait and see!

But nobody tells about Spain’s June temperature, which were at some places over 6 °C lower than the 1981-2010 average.

Below you see a comparison of the Sun Spot Number record with the temperatures recorded in the lower troposphere by UAH’s Climate Center:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ng1XTIpYP5qVXq8vJRMEqVgPjQVCcRMA/view

There is the weather, and there is the climate.

ren
September 10, 2019 9:28 am

Very strong sudden stratospheric warming in the south.
comment image

ResourceGuy
September 10, 2019 9:58 am

I must admit I never saw it coming that Save the Whales, Nuclear Winter, Ban Mining, Save the Amazon, and Acid Rain would morph into total silence for the unified cause of the global warming climate crusades. The power of advocacy religion with daily marketing ad push is amazing in scope and duration. I wonder what comes next? I just know it will be very loud and very expensive.

Rod Evans
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 10, 2019 11:06 am

Well they are toying with forcing us all into vegetarian diets. I guess the logic of the Greens is, if they can’t freeze us all to death by making heating prohibitively expensive, they will go for starving us all to death.
Have Greens always hated normal people?

Jack
September 13, 2019 6:37 pm

OK, then why only UK ?
And France, Germany , and all western Europe ?

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