The Week That Was: 2019-09-07 (September 7, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Long Overdue – Prediction Capability: Of the about 50 newspapers and web sites TWTW reviews weekly, only the UK Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) mentioned an August 30 White House memorandum that may become important. The memorandum “Fiscal Year 2021 Administration Research and Development Budget Priorities” was signed by Russell Vought, Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Kelvin Droegemeier, Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. A key paragraph reads:
Earth System Predictability: Knowing the extent to which components of the Earth system are practicably predictable – from individual thunderstorms to long-term global change- is vitally important for physical understanding of the Earth system, assessing the value of prediction results, guiding Federal investments, developing effective policy, and improving predictive skill. Departments and agencies should prioritize R&D that helps quantify Earth system predictability across multiple phenomena, time, and space scales. Strategic coordination and leveraging of resources across agencies on research and modeling efforts is needed to accelerate progress in this area. Additionally, agencies should emphasize how measures of and limits to predictability, both theoretical and actual, can inform a wide array of stakeholders. They also should explore the application of AI and adaptive observing systems to enhance predictive skill, along with strategies for obtaining substantial improvements in computational model performance and spatial resolution across all scales. [Boldface added.]
Unfortunately, none of the US government sponsored global climate models have been validated; thus, they have no value for prediction.
Assessing the ability of models to predict can be difficult, but it is necessary if one is to have realistic confidence in the predictions / projections of the model. A group of retired and highly experienced engineers and scientists from the Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle and International Space Station eras volunteered their time and effort in conducting an objective, independent assessment of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) alarm and reality of the actual threat. The group is known as The Right Climate Stuff team (TRCS) and their website gives an excellent overview of the need to adhere to the scientific method in order to address complex problems such as climate change. There were no textbooks on how to get to the moon, but many ideas. The scientists and engineers of the Apollo team consistently tested their ideas, hypotheses, etc. against hard evidence, data, with strict adherence to the scientific method.
The TRCS web site emphasizes this, especially a 19-minute video by Hal Doiron, the former chairman of the team: “If you are going to use a model to guide decisions, it must be validated. You need to show it agrees with experiment or it agrees with mother nature.” [TWTW side comment: something Nature Magazine will not do.]
Early in the video Doiron presents a slide with the tile:
“Fallacy of Alarming Global Warming Predictions
v Alarming global warming predictions are not consistent with requirements of The Scientific Method
Ø Predictions are based on un-validated climate simulation models
Ø The Scientific Method requires that hypotheses and theories be confirmed by physical data, not by models that do not agree with physical data
v Public policy and military planning should be based only on models validated by physical data
v Validated models project much less future warming than overly complex climate simulation models
Ø Preferred by the UN IPCC
Ø Used for the US National Climate Assessment”
He emphasizes that:
“Any alarm regarding our national security coming from scientists who do not follow the scientific method is really a threat to our national security
“The scientific method requires hypotheses and theories agree with physical data, not with models that do not agree with physical data.”
Among the problems is that the extent of global warming from Greenhouse Gases (GHG) used by the depends on two key factors:1) the sensitivity of earth surface temperature to atmospheric GHG and aerosol concentrations; and 2) what is the expected use of fossil fuels in the future?
If GHGs are defined as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, N2O and Halocarbons (the human contributions); then CO2 is the primary GHG and other cases and aerosols contribute about 50% of the primary warming effect of CO2. However, naturally occurring water vapor is much more important greenhouse gas affecting earth surface temperature. Yet, water vapor is largely ignored in IPCC calculations until the end.
The two metrics used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers can defined only by the global climate models: Equilibrium Climate Response and the Transient Climate Response. This is nonsense. TRCS team wanted a metric that can be defined by physical data. It uses transient climate sensitivity defined as doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere as it is actually happening – at a slow rate.
TRCS team makes projections of temperature increases for CO2 concentrations of 600 parts per million (ppm) using the energy flow model in the literature by Trenberth, Fasillo and Kiehl (2009).
Doiron identifies his method as the Observational Method, it is not a speculative method. He emphasizes that poorly understood problems do not need premature decisions with significant adverse consequences. Rather than make a regrettable decision, it is better to gather data to test hypotheses and models.
Using the surface temperature data from the Hadley Center and the Climatic Research Unit (UK), HadCRUT, TRCS team found that temperatures will rise from all greenhouse gases by less than 1 deg C by 2100. A doubling of CO2 should a maximum temperature rise of 1.2 deg C. Climate models that separate CO2 from other greenhouse gases unnecessarily complicate the issues. The nation has a great deal of time to determine, using the scientific method, whether controls on CO2 are needed.
As a side note, TWTW finds some difficulties with the HadCRUT data, but it is the best long-term, more than 30-years, surface data available. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Change in US Administrations.
The Greenhouse Effect – US Modeling: The successful Apollo Missions 50 years ago were a triumph for American science, engineering, and technology. They clearly showed how these skills can be employed, the importance of modeling, and the critical need to adhere to the scientific method, including frequent testing against physical data. Compared with today, computer technology was in its infancy, and satellite orbits were estimated by human calculators, not electronic equipment. As Hal Doiron discusses, in some ways, the modeling skills demonstrated by US government entities appear to be diminishing, not increasing with expanding computer technology. Critical testing against physical data is not being performed.
The August 24 and August 31 TWTWs discussed the NOAA GFDL Models and the NCAR Models, funded by the National Science Foundation. Of the models tested by John Christy and his colleagues, presented in December 2013 and discussed by Hal Doiron in his lecture, the GFDL-CM3 performed the worst when compared with atmospheric temperature trends for the tropical mid-troposphere from 1979 to 2013. Over the time period, the satellite and balloon data showed a rise of about 0.2 ºC; the average of 102 CMIP5 model runs showed a rise over 0.9 ºC and the GFDL-CM3 model showed a rise of about 1.5 ºC – 7 times the observed rise. This margin of error should be unacceptable to NOAA.
The NCAR model, CESM1, did slightly better than average, but greatly overestimated the warming of the tropics compared to what occurred, by over three times. Their 2018 budget was $227 million, many times that of Christy’s Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville. NCAR has no excuse for not testing their models against physical data.
As the 1979 Charney Report discusses, climate modelers claimed that warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) would be greatly amplified by increases in water vapor. At the time, there was no ability to test this assumption. Since then, the US has developed numerous methods to measure what is happening in the atmosphere and to test the assumptions in the climate models against physical data. Among others, John Christy has done this and has shown that the assumptions are not justified. As Hal Doiron demonstrates, models can be developed and tested against physical data, hard evidence, and validated. But the global climate models have not been so tested.
US policy need not be limited by climate modelers who are attempting to justify assumptions made 40 years ago when they could not be validated. In effect, the efforts of the climate modelers appear to be trapped by the limits of their own making four decades ago. There is no reason why US policy should follow the models as if they were Gospel. To adhere to the new White House memorandum described above, government entities that fund climate modeling need to adjust their requirements and fund only modeling efforts that include rigorous testing against physical data, observational or experimental. Testing against unvalidated models, or against parts of models should be dismissed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the past two TWTWs.
September News Fad – Hurricanes: It is hurricane season and a dangerous storm, Dorian, hit an island in the Bahamas and stopped. Then, as it moved slowly towards Florida it dissipated, and turned north. Dorian first prompted great speculation by those who have no knowledge of the history of hurricanes that storms are more intense than before. Then, the path prompted great speculation as to why and whether it is a result of increasing CO2. If the CO2 speculation where correct, then those living on the US east coast would experience more—and more violent— hurricanes. They should be grateful that the speculation is just speculation, because they are being spared of major hurricanes, category 3 or greater.
On his blog, Weather and Climate Science, Cliff Mass has several posts on the storm, including one explaining the uncertainty in predicting what would happen with Dorian and what steers hurricanes. Sometimes the ability to predict weather events is far less than commonly supposed. See links under Changing Weather
The Peter Ridd Controversy: The Federal Circuit Court of Australia considered the case of Peter Ridd vs. James Cook University. Simply, the tenured professor was terminated for speaking out against efforts to suppress his beliefs about distortion of science regarding the Great Barrier Reef. Ridd was awarded $1.2 million (AU, provisional on submissions). Earlier, Ridd sought re-instatement, but later decided on monetary damages. After 35 years of work on the Great Barrier Reef, he believed that the damage to the reef from global warming / climate change was greatly overstated by Australian government entities and publicly stated so.
This is the second decision against those who try to suppress scientific inquiry. On August 22 a Canadian court found against Michael Mann in his litigation against Timothy Ball and awarded Mr. Ball court costs, that may include all his legal fees and associated costs. See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry and the August 24 TWTW.
The New Fram: The original Fram was a wooden three-masted schooner designed by Norwegian Arctic explorer Fridjof Nansen in hopes of being locked in the Arctic ice to drift over the North Pole. Nansen had become famous for leading the first party to cross Greenland, on skis. He used the knowledge gained to design the Fram. He knew freezing ice would crush a typical boat. He designed the boat to have shallow draft (4.6 m, 15 ft), almost no keel, a thick sloping hull with an outer layer of greenwood, be almost one-third as wide as long (10.6 m by 39 m), be well insulated, and have an electric generator and wind mill for electric lights. The propulsion system included a 220 HP steam engine. The design allowed the boat to float up on the ice once it froze. Once locked in ice, the Fram was at the mercy of Arctic Ocean currents, the wind, and the ice. It held up to 16 people and had provisions for up to 5 years.
During the first voyage, from 1893 to 1896, the Fram did not reach the North Pole, and Nansen set out on skis but failed as well. The Fram was used on an 1898 to 1902 expeditions to the Canadian Arctic islands and later used in the famous South Pole expedition by Amundsen from 1910 to 1912. Fram didn’t sink, holds the records for sailing farthest north and farthest south of any wooden ship, and can be viewed in a museum in The Fram Museum in Oslo.
According to reports a research modern icebreaker, RV Polarstern, will depart Norway to spend the winter trapped in sea ice. The Polarstern has a displacement of 17,300 tonnes (metric tons), a crew of 44, a capacity of 124 persons, and four diesel engines totaling 19,000 hp. The purpose is to study the Arctic and how current climate change is reshaping it. The expedition is expected to last 13 months and cost $130 million. Hope the new Fram is as well suited for the task as the original, even if the original didn’t reach its objective. See links under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
SEPP April Fool’s Winner: The winner is AOC by a landslide! Although many distinguished and not so distinguished people were nominated, such as Ola Royrvik of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Bill Nye the supposed science guy, Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Center for Climate Impacts, and Greta Thunberg, the young thing; Alexandria Ocasio Cortez outpolled them all – by far.
Although it is difficult to locate any legislative accomplishments by AOC, one could say she has accomplished a great deal towards earning this prestigious award of a lump of coal. AOC, and her press, has helped galvanize candidates for the nomination for President by the Democratic Party into an absurd race to spend the most money to destroy a reliable, functional system of energy, particularly electricity, with expensive, unreliable electricity.
The race to destruction is based on fears generated by models that have not been validated, and when tested against physical evidence, fail. Since normal science depends on rigorous application of the scientific method, one can term this fear as paranormal science, supernatural. AOC’s former chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, has been reported to say it’s not about the environment, it’s about control. That is the issue, expanding government control over the American public when it is clearly not needed. See links under The Political Games Continue.
Number of the Week: 5.5 million sq. km (2.1 million sq. mi.). By several organizations, the Amazon rainforest is estimated to be about 5.5 million square kilometers or about 2.1 million square miles. The area of the complete US is 3.8 million square miles, slightly smaller than Europe. The area of the lower 48 is about 2.96 million square miles (7.7 million sq. km), about the same as Australia.
When claims that the Amazon is burning are made, no discussion of the actual areas involved are presented or comparison of actual burning with areas of the US or Europe made. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
ENSO predictions based on solar activity
By Javier, Climate Etc. Sep 1, 2019
Banned by Big Oil — Jo Nova’s Christmas speech for geologists cancelled by Woodside
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 3, 2019
Peter Ridd Update
By Peter Ridd, Peter Ridd Legal Action Fund, Sep 6, 2018 [H/t Richard Courtney]
“The court just announced that we have been awarded around $1.2 million (provisional on submissions).”
Link to Decision: Ridd v. James Cook University (No2)
Federal Circuit Court of Australia, Sep 6, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
One More Mission: The Right Climate Stuff
By Jim Peacock, Webmaster, Accessed Sep 5, 2019
Climate Alarmists Are A Threat To Our National Security [19 minute video]
By Harold Doiron, Ph.D. Chairman, the Right Climate Stuff Research Team, Nov 9, 2017
Florida Major Hurricane Strikes: No Significant Increase in Intensity from Sea Surface Warming
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 4, 2019
The Real Loser of the Democratic Presidential Candidate Climate Change Debate
By Craig D. Idso, Ph.D. Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Sep 6, 2019
Guest column: The Bulletin and climate hysteria
By Paul DeWitt, The Bulletin (Central Oregon), Sep 5, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Astonishing Media Misinformation About the IPCC
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Sep 4, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Are forest fires as bad as they seem?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2019
On the ‘Ultimate Resource,’ Human Ingenuity
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 3, 2019
Nooo, not the lobsters
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2019
New Papers: Ex-NOAA Climatologist And Russian Physicists Find Human Contribution To Warming 0.0°C-0.02°C
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 5, 2019
Link to book: The Rise and Fall of the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change
By Rex J. Fleming, 2019
Link to paper: Greenhouse Effect in Atmospheres of Earth and Venus
By Vladimir Krainov amd Boris M. Smirnov, Atomic and Molecular Radiative Processes. July 4, 2019
Settled Science? 7 New Papers Show Regional Temps Were 2-6°C Warmer Than Today During The Last Glacial!
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 2, 2019
Trump’s Science Advisor Says Climate Scientists Must Improve Climate Models
By Staff, GWPF, Sep 5, 2019
Link to Memo: Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies
From: Russell T. Vought, Acting Director, Office of Management and Budget; and Dr. Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Aug 30, 2019
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Asia’s growing coal use could negate global climate change progress, U.N. says
By Patpicha Tanakasempipat, Reuters, Sep 4, 2019
Developing countries kick back against eco-colonialism
The 16 nations of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have threatened to withdraw from the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), saying that it threatens national interests. Brazilians also resent foreign meddling with their conservation of the Amazon rainforest.
By Ivo Vegter, Daily Maverick, Sep 3, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Guest post: Why China’s CO2 emissions grew 4% during first half of 2019
By Lauri Myllyvirta, Carbon Brief, Sep 5, 2019
Seeking a Common Ground
The Danger of Climate Doomsayers
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Aug 19, 2019
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Positive Impact of Elevated CO2 on a Chinese Forest’s Water Use Efficiency
Lu, K., Chen, N., Zhang, X., Wang, J., Wang, M., Khan, S., Han, C., Zhang, C., Wang, S., Wang, L., Gao, W., Liu, Y. and Zhao, C. 2019. Increased drought and atmospheric CO2 positively impact intrinsic water use efficiency but do not promote tree growth in semi-arid areas of northwestern China. Trees 33: 669-679. Sep 6, 2019
The Robustness of the Antarctic Scallop to Ocean Acidification
Dell’Acqua, O., Trebala, M., Chiantore, M. and Hannula, S.-P. 2019. Robustness of Adamussium colbecki shell to ocean acidification in a short-term exposure. Marine Environmental Research 149: 90-99. Sep 5, 2019
“The results of the analyses were definitive; in the words of Dell’Acqua et al. ‘no effect of pH could be detected either in crystal deposition or in the mechanical properties.’ Consequently, the authors conclude that ‘A. colbecki shell structure and mechanical properties are resistant to a short-term OA exposure, both at the micro- and at the nanoscale, suggesting potential robustness of this benthic key species in light of future calcium carbonate undersaturation.’ With respect to the potential mechanism behind such shell robustness, the four researchers write that it ‘may reflect either a lower energy requirement for shell repair and maintenance, or the ability to reallocate energies among body functions/organs, thanks to a preadaptation history.’”
The Effect of Elevated CO2 and Potassium Concentration on Cucumber Growth
Dabu, X., Li, S., Cai, Z., Ge, T. and Hai, M. 2019. The effect of potassium on photosynthetic acclimation in cucumber during CO2 enrichment. Photosynthetica 57: 640-645. Sep 4, 2019
“Such findings above are good news for the vegetable greenhouse industry, demonstrating that a mere 4 hours of CO2 enrichment and potassium application can significantly improve the growth of cucumbers. And with the results of this study based on such a limited amount of CO2 enrichment time, imagine the good it could do for cucumber growth in the field when under 24 hours of CO2 enrichment!”
Elevated CO2 Reduces the Total Water Use of Canola
Uddin, S., Parvin, S., Löw, M., Fitzgerald, G.J., Tausz-Posch, S., Armstrong, R. and Tausz, M. 2019. Water use dynamics of dryland canola (Brassica napus L.) grown on contrasting soils under elevated CO2. Plant and Soil 438: 205-222. Sep 2, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
The Gestalt of Heat Waves
By Clyde Spencer, WUWT, Sep 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: EPA annual heat wave index from 1895 for the US suggests data- tampering by other agencies for the US 1930s data.]
NASA study verifies global warming trends
A new study by researchers from NASA has verified the accuracy of recent global warming figures.
By Staff, Science Daily, Apr 17, 2019
Link to paper: Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS
By J Susskind, G A Schmidt, J N Lee and L Iredell, Environmental Research Letters, Apr 17, 2019
[SEPP After AIRS measurements started in 2003, not before. For example, the data do not include 1998.]
The extreme heat of 1666
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 4, 2019
Climate Emergency Tour: Regina Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2019
Air pollution under clear skies reduces sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Sep 02, 2019
Link to paper: Characteristics of Surface Solar Radiation under Different Air Pollution Conditions over Nanjing, China: Observation and Simulation
By Hao Luo, et al. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, October 2019
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2019: +0.38 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 3, 2019
Link to August 2019 Maps and Graphs
Hurricane Dorian Will Spare Florida: Why So Much Uncertainty with This Storm?
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 31, 2019
Hurricane Dorian is a VERY Small Storm That is Moving Very Slowly
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 2, 2019
The Eye of Hurricane Dorian Passes Right Over a NOAA Buoy with a Live Webcam
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 5, 2019
Climate Alarmism Floods Hurricane Dorian Coverage
Global heating’ made it ‘bigger, wetter — and more deadly’
By Staff, WND, Sep 6, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Hurricane Hysteria Season
By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Sep 2, 2019
Link to: Monster hurricanes reached U.S. during prehistoric periods of ocean warming
Press Release, Woods Hole Oceanographic, Feb 11, 2015
“The study’s authors found evidence of 32 prehistoric hurricanes, along with the remains of three documented storms that occurred in 1991, 1675 and 1635.” [Cape Cod]
Three Years Since The Washington Post Was Terrified By The Lack Of Hurricanes
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 5, 2019
Deep snow cover in the Arctic region intensifies heat waves in Eurasia
By Staff Writers, Sapporo, Japan (SPX) Sep 02, 2019
Link to paper: Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land–atmosphere interactions
By Tomonori Sato & Tetsu Nakamura, Nature, July 26, 2019
Unprecedented Heatwaves Of 1911
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 5, 2019
Medieval Warmth Was GLOBAL…Confirmed By Over 1200 Publications At Google Maps
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 3, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The link on Google Maps includes an index of locations and date of study.]
Oldest lake in Europe reveals more than one million years of climate history
Press Release, University of Cologne, Sep 3, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: ‘Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoon during past 1.36 million years’
By Bernd Wagner, Hendrik Vogel, et al., Nature, Sep 2, 2019
10 Days at the Magnificent Great Barrier Reef (Part 1, Whitsundays)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Aug 31, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Filming that which no longer exists?]
Climate change, coastal development lead to nearshore coral declines
Scientists find slower growth in Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System corals
Press Release: NSF, Sep 3, 2019
[SEPP Comment: As Marohasy has shown for Australia, it is more likely due to onshore development than change in climate.]
A Junior Blob Off the West Coast–But Still Cool for a Hurricane
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 4, 2019
Historical European Sea Level Records
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 6, 2019
Landsat Illustrates Five Decades of Change to Greenland Glaciers
By Kate Ramsayer for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX), Aug 29, 2019
A Massive Icebreaker Ship Will Trap Itself in Arctic Sea Ice on Purpose. Here’s Why.
It’s studying the interactions between the Arctic and the global climate.
By Tom Metcalfe, Live science, Sep 3, 2019 [H/t Sep 3, 2019]
Climate change: Greenland’s ice faces melting ‘death sentence’
By David Shukman, BBC, Sep 3, 2019
Guest post: How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
Dr Ruth Mottram, Dr Martin Stendel and Dr Peter Langen, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in Copenhagen, Via Carbon Brief, Sep 6, 2019
Ice-pack of lies
Alarmists are avoiding the truth about climate and the poles
By Howard Thomas Brady, The Spectator, Aug 24, 2019
Los Angeles Doomed: Not Because Climate Change
Guest geologizing by David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 5, 2019
“It appears to be linked to other faults, which means we have less than 885 to 2,520 years to solve the earthquake crisis… Can we get a Green New Deal for this?”
Found: 25 Hectares of Acropora at Stone Island
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Sep 5, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Finding that which no longer exists?]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
United Nations Misleads About Food Production and Climate Change
By H. Sterling Burnett and James Taylor, The Epoch Times, Sep 2, 2019
Mainstream Media Hijack Hurricane Dorian for Climate-Change Alarm
By Vijay Jayaraj. Townhall, Sep 3, 2019
@NPR tries and fails to connect “slow moving hurricanes” like #Dorian to “climate change”
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 4, 2019
A Shoddy Reporting System,
From a correspondent, GWPF, Sep 4, 2019
“The British Geological Survey seems unable to run a reliable survey.”
Media Ignores Climate Alarmist’s Court Loss — It Doesn’t Fit The Warmist Agenda
Editorial, Issues and Insights, Aug 30, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
David Attenborough’s reputation was last seen falling off a cliff
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 4, 2019
NPR Doesn’t Know Spit About Saliva, Nitrates Or Deli Meat
By Josh Bloom, NCSH, Aug 30, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate change forcing Alaskans to hunt for new ways to survive
By Jocelyne Zablit, Quinhagak, United States (AFP), Aug 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: How many people living in Alaska depend solely on hunting and fishing for subsistence?]
Fire in the Minds of (Climate) Men
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Aug 26, 2019
Hurricane Dorian–The Facts v The Myth
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2019
Smart Commentary about the Amazon Fires
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Sep 2, 2019
“…the Amazon rainforest still spans 5.5 million square kilometres. It would take many centuries, perhaps even millennia, and a gargantuan industrial operation, to destroy it. It is not, as some greens would have you believe, tiny, fragile and on the brink.” – Ben Pile
Slow-crawling Dorian a new kind of threat
By Issam Ahmed, Washington (AFP), Sept 3, 2019
“Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist with US advocacy group the Union of Concerned Scientists, told AFP hurricanes that stall for a long time are becoming more common, and recent studies show the phenomenon could be linked to man-made climate change.”
Scientists warn West Coast ocean heat wave could pose major risk to whales, salmon, sea lions
By John Bowden, The Hill, Sep 5, 2019
[SEPP Comment: They survived the senior Blob to succumb to a junior Blob? Alaska reports a fourth year of six with a record-breaking salmon harvest.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Aunty ABC tells readers: Don’t let fear hold you back in your dream to be important, smug, tool of bankers and big-state
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 5, 2019
Retired Climate Alarmist John Schellnhuber: “Not Much Time Left”…Earth “Slipping Into A Hot Age”!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 4, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
A Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Alarmism.
Guest post by John Shewchuk, WUWT, Sep 3, 2019
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Big Tech Offers Paid Leave to Climate Protest “Volunteers”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 3, 2019
Questioning European Green
Bavarian MPs who don’t enforce environmental rules ‘could face jail’
By Cristina Abellan Matamoros. Euronews, Sep 2, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green electoral poison: State Labor Party attacks and vows never to work with Greens again [Australia]
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 2, 2019
Glowing in the dark
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2019
Indonesia sends back hundreds of shipping containers full of waste
By Staff Writers, Jakarta (AFP), Sept 4, 2019
‘Green Dreams’ threaten real US jobs
By Steve Milloy, Washington Examiner, Sep 4, 2019
The Political Games Continue
Climate is such a big deal that we… zzzz
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2019
CNN Hosts Seven-Hour ‘Climate Crisis Town Hall’ with Democratic Presidential Candidates
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Sep 6, 2019
Pollak: The Craziest Things Said at the CNN Climate Town Hall
By Joel Pollak, Breitbart, Sep 5, 2019
The Competition Over How To Impoverish The American People Continues Among Democratic Candidates
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 5, 2019
“I’m old enough that I can remember when political candidates thought that it was their job to propose policies that would enhance the prosperity of the people, let alone to make the world a safer place.”
Banning Plastic Straws, Fossil Fuels: Here Are Seven Standout Moments From CNN’s Climate Town Hall
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Sepp 5, 2019
The Energy 202: Here’s why lawyers suing oil companies are following the opioid cases
By Dino Grandoni, Washington Post, Sep 3, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Ireland May Renege on Carbon Tax Payback Pledge
By Staff, The Times, Sep 1, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Solar energy badly harms the environment. It must be taxed, not subsidized
By Sanjeev Sabhlok, Seeing the Invisible, The Times of India, Sep 2,2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
The world is investing less in clean energy
China, which once accounted for almost half of all investment in renewables, has seen the biggest drop
By Staff, The Economist, Sep 5, 2019
Energy Issues — US
The Anti-Climate-Change Energy Crunch Is Starting To Hit New York
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 3, 2019
“The whole idea of New York’s ‘climate leadership’ law is to take fossil fuels away from the people. And the bureaucrats are nowhere near having a replacement for natural gas ready to go — nor will they ever be, to be honest, at least until they embrace nuclear energy. Sooner or later, the people will figure this out.”
Natural gas soon to be outlawed in almost all new Menlo Park buildings [California]
By Jan. 1, 2020, heating systems in all new homes and buildings in the city must run on electricity
By Maggie Angst, The Mercury News, Aug 28, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
2018 Exceptional Year for Nuclear Power Firsts
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag. Sep 5, 2019
Further contract for Finnish repository construction
By Staff, WNN, Aug 29, 2019
Second APR-1400 unit starts commercial operation
By Staff, WNN, Sep 2, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
German Wind Lobby Demands Endangered Species Protection To Be Watered Down
By Daniel Wentzel, Die Welt, Via GWPF, Sep 4, 2019
How Net Generation Has Changed in States with Renewable Portfolio Standards
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 4, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Does not discuss costs to consumers.]
The Environmental Fiasco of Wind Energy
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Sep 4, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Dumping used blades is more complex than dumping used razor blades.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Busting The Myth Of The World’s Hottest Electric Car Market
By Nawar Alsaadi, Oil Price.com, Sep 1, 2019 [H/t Mark Liebe]
Electric Car Sales Fall for First Time After China Cuts Subsidy
By Sanford Bernstein, Bloomberg, Sep 3, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
Cooking In India: Self-Inflicted Indoor Air Pollution
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, September 3, 2019
[SEPP Comment: An ongoing problem for centuries. Unfortunately, many articles lump it with modern coal-fired power plants providing heat by wire, which is misleading.]
Other Scientific News
Ancient die-off greater than the dinosaur extinction
By Staff Writers, Stanford CA (SPX), Sep 02, 2019
Link to paper: A productivity collapse to end Earth’s Great Oxidation
By Malcolm S. W. Hodgskiss, et al. PNAS, Aug 27, 2019
Other News that May Be of Interest
Snowkyo 2020: Tokyo organisers to test fake snow to cool Olympics
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), Sept 5, 2019
“Olympic organisers have been on the offensive over concerns that holding the Games during summer months when Tokyo regularly reaches 35 degrees centigrade with 80 percent humidity will be unsafe.” [95 F]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Behavioral Scientist Suggests Eating Humans to ‘Save the Planet’
By Alicia Luke, Godfather Politics, Sep 4, 2019
Climate change protesters admit using a diesel generator to power their stage
The environmental activists say it feels ‘hypocritical’ but it would have used more energy to transport a solar generator from London
By Alice Cachia, Manchester Evening News, Sep 1, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Experts: It May Be Too Late To Halt Climate Change Town Hall On CNN
By Staff, Babyonbee, Sep 4, 2019 [H/t Mark Liebe]
Establishment preparing for “climate refugees” to come to Canada
In theory, anyone who feels inconvenienced by climate change could attempt to claim refugee status in Canada.
By Candice Malcolm, True North, Aug 28, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Ocasio-Cortez tweets video of damage caused by Dorian: ‘This is what climate change looks like’
By Owen Daugherty, The Hill, Sep 3, 2019
1. A Scientific Roundup
The EPA intervenes against California’s rogue cancer regulation.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 3, 2019
SUMMARY: The Editorial Begins:
“Perhaps you’ve read that science should rule when determining environmental standards. So why aren’t progressives cheering an Environmental Protection Agency order declaring that the chemical glyphosate doesn’t cause cancer?
“In an extraordinary intervention, the EPA recently said it will no longer approve product labels that claim glyphosate is carcinogenic to humans. Glyphosate is the active ingredient in Roundup, the popular weed killer. The herbicide has been on the U.S. market since 1974, and the scientific consensus is that it isn’t carcinogenic in humans.
“The letter is a rebuke to California, which in 2015 said it would add glyphosate to its official list of carcinogens under the state’s 1986 Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act, known as Proposition 65. California cited the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer’s finding that glyphosate ‘probably’ causes cancer.
“This is the U.N. outfit that has warned against cancer from pickled vegetables, caffeine and working the night shift. California’s move has inspired a flood of lawsuits against Roundup-maker Monsanto, including a $2 billion jury judgment (reduced to $86 million by a judge) in May for a California couple claiming glyphosate caused their cancer.
“EPA’s letter is an attempt to restore science to the glyphosate debate and counter California’s rogue regulation. The letter cites EPA’s extensive review of the scientific literature on glyphosate, as well as the concurring judgments of regulators in Canada, Australia, the European Union, Germany, New Zealand and Japan.
“The agency also cites its labeling authority under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, which should pre-empt state law. The EPA letter says it ‘considers the Proposition 65 warning language based on the chemical glyphosate to constitute a false and misleading statement.’
“The EPA letter should also be evidence in current litigation brought by farm groups against California. In 2018 a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction against California, finding the farm plaintiffs would likely prevail in their claims that the state’s cancer-label requirement violates their First Amendment rights.
“California’s Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment responded to the EPA letter by calling it ‘disrespectful of the scientific process,’ but the opposite is true. California is the regulatory outlier attempting to impose its standards despite the precedent that federal law sets national standards on health and safety when Congress’s language is clear.”
Boldface added. The editorial concludes with the assertion that the California state judges have largely excluded EPA’s conclusions as evidence in the courts.
2. CNN Climate Show Wasn’t Just Boring
Hint to green media: Voters might actually be more prone to act if told the truth instead of lies.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Sep 6, 2019
SUMMARY: The journalist states:
CNN’s seven-hour climate town hall with the Democratic presidential candidates was the ratings bomb you expected, and no wonder since there was little debate. If it was unwatchable, though, it wasn’t unwatchable enough for some. The Columbia Journalism Review’s “public editor for CNN,” Emily Tamkin, beforehand insisted that moderators should proceed “on the assumption that the climate is in crisis,” and limit themselves to calling for action and faulting inaction.
In other words, make it an exercise in liturgy, not inquiry, as well as a repetition of the most failed experiment in history: trying to bully viewers into accepting predictions of a pending climate disaster.
All this comes as the sixth “assessment report” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, still two years off, is likely to offer nothing new on the vexed, contentious 40-year-old stalemate over how much warming actually can be expected from a given amount of CO2.
It comes just days after the shocking suicide of Harvard climate economist Martin Weitzman, rightly praised in obituaries for an insight lacking in the CNN town hall: A climate disaster is far from guaranteed. It’s the low but not insignificant chance of a “fat tail” worst-case disaster that we should worry about. (Mr. Weitzman put the odds at 3% to 10%.)
It comes as Weitzman’s student, collaborator and co-author, Gernot Wagner, tellingly has focused his own attention lately on geoengineering rather than the seemingly lost cause of carbon reduction.
Words hardly serve to describe the mediocrity of climate journalism, including CNN’s. But at least Elizabeth Warren had an interesting moment when she admonished a network personality for trying to rile up viewers “around your light bulbs, around your straws and around your cheeseburgers.”
After discussing other “distractions” the journalist concludes with:
The blame obviously can’t be laid entirely at the feet of climate press. There is much else going on, in which journalists are but lockstep automatons. And here it is: With their decision to resort to a strategy of hysterical exaggerations, vilifications and hackneyed partisanship, the greens have now succeeded in convincing voting publics that any climate strategy must be catastrophic to their lifestyles, transferring trillions from their pockets to green special interests.
Worse, voters are right. Many climate campaigners are more interested in social revolution than in climate science. Some are more interested in expressing their craving for humanity’s death and engaging in apocalyptic playacting than in improving the human condition.
So to answer CNN’s non-debate and the worries of the late Prof. Weitzman, if the small but not negligible chance of a climate catastrophe is borne out, we already know what the answer is going to be: to throw a bunch of particles into the atmosphere, at a cost of perhaps $2 billion a year, in order to block the estimated 1% of sunlight necessary to keep earth’s temperature in check.
And everybody across the scientific spectrum understands this is where we are headed. How this reality could go unmentioned in seven hours on CNN is explicable only by the debate not being a debate.
One more point: When and if the IPCC resolves its manifest struggles over climate sensitivity (i.e., how much warming can be expected), the result will necessarily be to reduce uncertainty regarding the great chemistry experiment in the atmosphere. Therefore it will reduce, or at least reframe, the fat-tail risk that Weitzman’s followers worry about today, which is largely a product of unresolved and proliferating uncertainties in today’s highly inadequate climate models.