George Martin Yahoo News UK•September 8, 2019
The UK could be set to experience one of the coldest winters in three decades, scientists have warned.
Meteorologists say an even more extreme version of the “Beast from the East” could see parts of the country hit with blizzard-like conditions throughout much of January and February next year.
Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures, scientists have been able to predict one of the longest-range UK weather forecasts ever recorded – according to The Sunday Times.
Mark Saunders, professor of climate prediction at University College London (UCL), said: “This would rank the 2020 January-February central England temperature as the coldest winter since 2013.”
“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”
“There is a 57% chance the central England temperature will be colder than in 2018, thus making it the coldest January-February since 2013,” he added.
The scientists believe that the jet stream, the high-altitude wind that pushes weather systems across the Atlantic to Britain, will be diverted to hit Britain over the winter.
HT/Sonya P
They left off the “Unprecedented” term!!
In November, when sea ice begins to melt in the south, La Nina will develop. This means an extremely cold winter in North America (with a minimum of solar activity).
4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for September 2019
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201909.gif
NASA predicts the occurrence of La Nina conditions in November.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/archive/20190903.nino_summary_4.png
Didn’t Dr Pat Frank just find that all this prediction modelling was a crock? I guess none of these ‘modelling scientists understand what he has written.
Monthly CET temperatures are available here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
Taking together all of the quotes from the main article, the Jan-Feb 2020 CET forecast is for colder than 2018 (+4.1C) but warmer than 2013 (+3.4C); so somewhere between +3.5 and +4.0C.
Average Jan-Feb temperature in CET over the past 30 years (1990-2019) is +4.8C with 1 standard deviation of +/- 1.2C, meaning that a ‘normal’ Jan-Feb in CET is expected to range between +3.6 to +6.0C.
The lowest end of this Jan-Feb 2020 forecast range (+3.5C) is just fractionally cooler than ‘normal’ for the past 30 years in CET and most of it is within the ‘normal’ range. How did this get to be a story?
“Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures…”
That statement is something to be praised! The analysis of those two factors should have been in the forefront of long range forecasts many years ago.
Using ground-breaking analysis of sea temperatures and air pressures, scientists have been able to predict one of the longest-range UK weather forecasts ever recorded
S.L.B.T.M.
Extreme heat kills more, down under…
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/extreme-heat-a-far-greater-threat-for-most-australians-than-extreme-cold-weather-study-finds-20190909-p52ph1.html
Brent Hargreaves September 9, 2019 at 6:18 am
Scientists mein Arsch.
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Brent, diesen blog lesen zur Zeit:
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Glaubst Du wirklich 400,626,841 Menschen weltweit sind hier wegen lächerlicher max. 119 thoughts / ausländerfeindlicher Ausfälle gepaart mit kindlichen politischen Vorstellungen.
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Brent, at the moment read this blog:
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Do you really think 400,626,841 people worldwide are here for ridiculous max. 119 thoughts / xenophobic insults paired with childish political ideas.
“Meteorologists say an even more extreme version of the “Beast from the East” could see parts of the country hit with blizzard-like conditions throughout much of January and February next year.”
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I agree with this opinion.
This is now the 3rd week in late August, early September with daytime temperatures 39° fahrenheit to max. 84°C.
During the night it rains persistently; that would correspond to extensive snowfall in winter.
Morning cloudy, inversion weather conditions: hardly any wind.
It stays that way until the next dormouse day and brings SNOW.
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Ich schliesse mich dieser Meinung an.
Das ist nun die 3.e Woche Ende August, Anfang September mit Tagestemperaturen 4°C bis max. 28, 29 °C.
Während der Nacht regnet es ausdauernd; das entspräche ausgiebiger Schneefall im Winter.
Vormittags bedeckt, Inversionswetterlage: kaum Wind.
Das bleibt so bis zum nächsten Siebenschläfer und bringt SCHNEE.
I have been fortunate to have lived a long time, I have seen all kinds weather, bitterly cold, very hot,
Floods, drought, All the climate change nonsense, the biggest Con Trick I have ever witnessed.
It’s weather stupid!!!
“It would also rank January-February 2020 as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years.”
7 out of 30 is about 25%.
So what they’re saying is that this winter might be within the 25% quartile of coldest winters in 30 years.
That’s saying almost nothing.
It is a sunspot minimum, the sun is very quiet. It is also at the bottom of several solar cycles. I predict very cold winters in the NH. Global averages will be lower than previous years recently. I bet I am more right than the BBC, who were on about climate change ad nausiam today, AGAIN.
David Stone
Nice prediction!
But the head post above has to do with a single winter in a minuscule country.
Yes, maybe it will become a bit colder than usual in the UK during next winter… wait and see!
But nobody tells about Spain’s June temperature, which were at some places over 6 °C lower than the 1981-2010 average.
Below you see a comparison of the Sun Spot Number record with the temperatures recorded in the lower troposphere by UAH’s Climate Center:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ng1XTIpYP5qVXq8vJRMEqVgPjQVCcRMA/view
There is the weather, and there is the climate.
Very strong sudden stratospheric warming in the south.
I must admit I never saw it coming that Save the Whales, Nuclear Winter, Ban Mining, Save the Amazon, and Acid Rain would morph into total silence for the unified cause of the global warming climate crusades. The power of advocacy religion with daily marketing ad push is amazing in scope and duration. I wonder what comes next? I just know it will be very loud and very expensive.
Well they are toying with forcing us all into vegetarian diets. I guess the logic of the Greens is, if they can’t freeze us all to death by making heating prohibitively expensive, they will go for starving us all to death.
Have Greens always hated normal people?
OK, then why only UK ?
And France, Germany , and all western Europe ?