From EurekAlert!
Public Release: 14-Jan-2019
Upper-ocean warming is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger
The energy in ocean waves has been increasing as a consequence of climate change, according to a new study
University of California – Santa Cruz
Increasing wave energy with climate change means more challenges for coastal risk and adaptation.
Sea level rise puts coastal areas at the forefront of the impacts of climate change, but new research shows they face other climate-related threats as well. In a study published January 14 in Nature Communications, researchers report that the energy of ocean waves has been growing globally, and they found a direct association between ocean warming and the increase in wave energy.
A wide range of long-term trends and projections carry the fingerprint of climate change, including rising sea levels, increasing global temperatures, and declining sea ice. Analyses of the global marine climate thus far have identified increases in wind speeds and wave heights in localized areas of the ocean in the high latitudes of both hemispheres. These increases have been larger for the most extreme values (e.g., winter waves) than for the mean conditions. However, a global signal of change and a correlation between the localized increases in wave heights and global warming had remained undetected.
The new study focused on the energy contained in ocean waves, which is transmitted from the wind and transformed into wave motion. This metric, called wave power, has been increasing in direct association with historical warming of the ocean surface. The upper ocean warming, measured as a rising trend in sea-surface temperatures, has influenced wind patterns globally, and this, in turn, is making ocean waves stronger.
“For the first time, we have identified a global signal of the effect of global warming in wave climate. In fact, wave power has increased globally by 0.4 percent per year since 1948, and this increase is correlated with the increasing sea-surface temperatures, both globally and by ocean regions,” said lead author Borja G. Reguero, a researcher in the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Climate change is modifying the oceans in different ways, including changes in ocean-atmosphere circulation and water warming, according to coauthor Inigo J. Losada, director of research at the Environmental Hydraulics Institute at the University of Cantabria (IHCantabria), where the study was developed.
“This study shows that the global wave power can be a potentially valuable indicator of global warming, similarly to carbon dioxide concentration, the global sea level rise, or the global surface atmospheric temperature,” Losada said.
Understanding how the energy of ocean waves responds to oceanic warming has important implications for coastal communities, including anticipating impacts on infrastructure, coastal cities, and small island states. Ocean waves determine where people build infrastructure, such as ports and harbors, or require protection through coastal defenses such as breakwaters and levees. Indeed, wave action is one of the main drivers of coastal change and flooding, and as wave energy increases, its effects can become more profound. Sea level rise will further aggravate these effects by allowing more wave energy to reach shoreward.
While the study reveals a long-term trend of increasing wave energy, the effects of this increase are particularly apparent during the most energetic storm seasons, as occurred during the winter of 2013-14 in the North Atlantic, which impacted the west coast of Europe, or the devastating 2017 hurricane season in the Caribbean, which offered a harsh reminder of the destructive power and economic impacts of coastal storms.
The effects of climate change will be particularly noticeable at the coast, where humans and oceans meet, according to coauthor Fernando J. Méndez, associate professor at Universidad de Cantabria. “Our results indicate that risk analysis neglecting the changes in wave power and having sea level rise as the only driver may underestimate the consequences of climate change and result in insufficient or maladaptation,” he said.
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This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (MCIUN).
Dear God. What next.
Cowabunga, dude, surf’s up! Let’s see, ocean waves are mostly driven by surface winds, and these winds are the atmosphere adjusting higher pressure toward lower pressure events, minus or plus the drag on a spinning earth, so the report is claiming that wind speed is up? We were treated to a report some time ago that said wind speed was down (and negatively impacting the wind turbine complexes). The effect is most noticeable at the coast where humans and ocean meet? Doh! What has happened to Professors?
As with all such alarmist nonsense this flies in the face of elementary physics. The energy in waves derives from the strength of the wind driving them. Not from water temperature.
Shall we conclude that warm seas imply scary destruction waves while cold seas are calm and gentle ?
Another study to be filed under the general heading. “What has Global Warming ever done for us”
The strange thing is, as global warming is supposed to be most evident at the poles, thus the surface water (what there is of it) will be warmer there. That will reduce the wind energy driver, which is the difference between the tropics water temp, and the polar water temp. With that in mind shouldn’t the effect of sea temp rise be reduced winds and hence reduced wave activity?
Of course, it is always possible the AGW alarmists have stumbled unexpectedly onto a new energy source. Maybe it is global hot air blowing across the planet…?
storm seasons, as occurred during the winter of 2013-14 in the North Atlantic,
What idiots – 2013 / 2014 were La Niña years too.
The air in contact with the ocean, UV long wave radiation does not penetrate water. The ocean is warmed down to 100 metres, by direct sunlight, short wave radiation. It’s got nothing to do with carbon dioxide.
The wind is up, the wind is down, the waves are up, the waves are down. Whatever the truth, our grants keep rolling in with each newly minted catastrophic scare that we can release on the public.
The paper is available here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08066-0
The results are very largely model-based, not measured, as I expected and the older data are all reanalysis/hindcasts.
An interesting thing is that almost the entire increase seems to be in the Southern Ocean, particularly in recent years (Fig 1.)
Now what is special with the Southern Ocean:
1. It is cold
2. It is stormy
3. There is virtually nobody there
The perfect place for predictions, who would notice if they are wrong?
Increasing wave energy with climate change means more challenges for coastal risk and adaptation.
But great for surfers! Are there Paleosurfers who study historical surfing patterns?
“Upper-ocean warming is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger”
Is that sonething for humans to manage and for humans to decide how strong the waves should be and then to tweak mother nature and to get her to behave?
Have we lost our minds?
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/06/ohc/
Sing along, you all know the tune
Blow the wind southerly, southerly,
southerly, Blow the wind south for the bonny blue sea.
Blow the wind southerly, southerly,
southerly, Blow, bonny breeze, my money to me.
The study admits in its introduction:
“Despite the changes detected in different wave parameters, a global and long-term time series of the effect of climate change in the global wave climate remains undetected.”
Yet the entire article clearly is claiming that “climate change” (global warming) is causing stronger and taller waves. They admit they can’t prove the hypothesis, but doesn’t let it stop them from making the claim in the headline anyway.
I don’t know how they determine wave energy from 1948, but I haven’t read the study. I understand the desire of scientists to “for the first ever blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah,” but I’m not comfortable simply dismissing the study with diving into it.
If wave energy has been increasing at 0.4% a year since 1948, that means that over the period it must have increased in total by 32%.
I’m amazed no-one noticed earlier.
/sarc.
“…..wave power has increased globally by 0.4 percent per year since 1948…
Could this be evidence of the advance of the ‘silly season’ ( march madness/ mad as a march hare etc.) into january… due to global warming?
Just musing
Cheers
Mike
If Laird Hamilton agreed, I might believe this.
100 foot waves at Nazare
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Ftok14M5p8g
Should be really big in 100 years time.
I’ve observed that beach erosion is much worse in the winter when the water is cold than in summer when the water is warm. I don’t care how much “energy” a wave carries, winter waves are just different and much more destructive. May the higher water viscosity carries sand away better, maybe the wave period is more destructive, who knows. Summer waves tend to build offshore sandbars and build beaches up and winter waves tear everything down.
No, wait, I think they may be on to something. The missing heat, through the miracle of CarbonPhysics™ has transformed itself into wind energy, thus making for bigger, stronger waves. Eureka!
Oh no this will only encourage the taxeaters to have another bash at it again-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-17/oceanlinx-generator-stranded-as-court-proceedings-continue/8529602
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-05-17/huge-swell-sinks-wave-energy-generator/829282
“wave power”
Thanks for my salary.
What can I think up for next month?
Gee, I’d like a membership in a nice club.
I want to send my kids to private school.
I’m only amazed that they didn’t discover that these supposedly 32 per cent more powerful since 1948 waves haven’t been increasing continental drift by crashing more energetically into continental shelves and triggering more volcanic activity and earthquakes to boot. Making this stuff up really isn’t difficult if you just disregard worrying about anything except being right on and getting more grant money.
Oh wait, is this how islands are going to be tipped over like the congressman believed?
‘A wide range of long-term trends and projections carry the fingerprint of climate change, including rising sea levels, increasing global temperatures, and declining sea ice.’
None of which are happening, except for sea levels, the rate of which is nominal.
‘Analyses of the global marine climate thus far have identified increases in wind speeds and wave heights in localized areas of the ocean in the high latitudes of both hemispheres.’
Ahh . . . so it’s not global, but rather high latitudes. But you feel authorized to declare it for the full earth and scare people with ‘Sea level rise puts coastal areas at the forefront of the impacts of climate change.’
There is no such thing as a global marine climate. Climate is regional. It is weather over time. Weather is atmospheric. Marine is not atmospheric.
‘These increases have been larger for the most extreme values (e.g., winter waves) than for the mean conditions.’
Ahh . . . it’s seasonal, too.
‘However, a global signal of change and a correlation between the localized increases in wave heights and global warming had remained undetected.’
Thank God you found it!
What happens when you turn universities into profit centers, flood them with students via easily accessible student loans and lower academic standards to guarantee graduation of marginal students?
A plethora of busy-work scientific papers (publish or perish) to preserve academic country club member privilege.