He’s Baaaaaaaccckkk! (Oy)

I received this email tip from reader Thomas Bakewell (HT, HT) who wrote:

Pen Hadow, of the 2009 Caitlin Arctic Expedition is on the loose again!

Here’s the link to the BBC story which is mostly a short video.

Here is a quote:

British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.

With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.

AND HERE IS A BUNCH OF STORIES WUWT RAN THE LAST TIME THESE ZEALOTS WERE PRANCHING AROUND.

Another shocked polar explorer

Admiration For The Catlin Explorers

Global Warming At The Pole Since 1913

Catlin Crew Officially Has Hypothermia (and Frostbite)

Catlin Arctic Survey website recycles biotelemetry data?

Can the Catlin Arctic Survey Team Cover 683 km in the Next 21 Days?

Quote of the week #4

Catlin Arctic Ice Survey first report offers no original drilling data, but anecdotally confirms satellite measurement

Catlin Arctic Ice Survey: paid advertising of results before they are even off the ice!

Catlin Crew Out Of Time

The Guardian Relocates The North Pole By 500km

Catlin Artic Ice Survey: An Annie Hall Moment

The Top Ten Reasons why I think Catlin Arctic Ice Survey data can’t be trusted

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215 thoughts on “He’s Baaaaaaaccckkk! (Oy)

  1. I thoroughly recommend “The Ascent of Rum Doodle” by W.E. Bowman. A must for all would-be explorers.

  2. Pen is a friend of mine, he`s ok, his business is doing things, managing risk and getting paid for it, and having a lot of fun (?) at the same time, please shoot the data and results, not the person.

    • That’s a reasonable request ” shoot the data and the results not the person”; but I can’t help but think from what you have said that he is being paid to do this for propaganda.

      Whether or not he makes it he has made it possible for the disingenuous message, which has already been broadcast far and wide, that the North pole is “ice free” due to unprecedented ice melt, global warming etc etc.

      To my mind that puts a slightly different slant on it and on your otherwise reasonable request.

      • Let’s look ….

        Doesn’t look that “unprecedented since there was less ice and melting faster in 2012. Or maybe they mean the fact that last years ice min was the same as the 2007 ice min and the fact that it had not reduced in a full ten years was “unprecedented” … in the very limited 40 year record, that is.

      • Sorry jono, when someone is involved anti-scientific propaganda and distorting the truth by playing to media bias , I shoot the messenger.

        The fact that he is getting paid is certainly because of the message this trip will bring. Let’s have a list of his sponsors. I’ll bet it’s not Heartland Institute of Cato foundation !

      • “jono1066 August 16, 2017 at 5:13 am
        Pen is a friend of mine, he`s ok, his business is doing things, managing risk and getting paid for it, and having a lot of fun (?) at the same time, please shoot the data and results, not the person.”

        • Pen, ok? – you are quite forgiving for a friend.
        • Pen, doing things? – You mean scamming free rides, expensive equipment, seriously expensive rescues?
        • Pen, managing risk? – What risks? Falsehoods, false data, false claims?
        • Pen, getting paid for it and having fun? – Ah, the life of a professional elitist adventuring off the public funds.
        • Pen, shoot the data and results? – Why waste anyone’s time?

        Pen told fibs regarding Arctic weather, weather causes, alleged global warming, drilling ice, ice radar, etc.

        One would think that someone would spend some time doing some serious research before making absurd claims and then endangering lives.

        Greg covered a central base regarding the Arctic.

        Here are a few others:
        Which North Pole does Pen plan to visit? Based on previous Pen escapades, I suspect it’s whatever one Pen thinks he can reach.
        Here is the true North Pole:

        Hint, it’s where the Longitude lines meet at an empty circle where time is technically suspended.

        Arctic ice:

        Sure looks like the North Pole is ice covered.

        Multiple countries have buoys floating around in the Arctic and nearby waters:

        Buoy 127317:
        Drifting here:

        Buoy 127317 Sea level pressure and temperature track:

        Buoy 300234063518440:

        Buoy 300234063518440: Sea level pressure and temperature track:

        Buoy 300234062738010:

        Buoy 300234062738010: Sea level pressure and temperature track:

        It does not look like the last month of ice melt is running hot!

    • Why isn’t he attempting to get as far as he can , knowing he will fail, because the ice is thick and the global warming narrative is a false one ?
      If he said that, I might agree with you that your friend is ok.

      • Sponsors who are paying good money for an adventurer to set sail into the unknown want to ensure their risk is fully covered and they want a real headline they can buy into from a very determined and single minded person, one doesnt get too many takers if your shoutline is `to see how far I get` rather than `off to the North pole!` and that person is free to write a book about his experiences and write it in a vein that he believes will sell the book well. Pen is far from an ecoloon trying to prove armageddon is just round the corner and Ive noticed there are a lot of writers out churn out pure fiction year after year and are lauded for it.

      • “jono1066 August 16, 2017 at 1:14 pm
        Sponsors who are paying good money for an adventurer to set sail into the unknown want to ensure their risk is fully covered and they want a real headline they can buy into from a very determined and single minded person, one doesnt get too many takers if your shoutline is `to see how far I get` rather than `off to the North pole!` and that person is free to write a book about his experiences and write it in a vein that he believes will sell the book well. Pen is far from an ecoloon trying to prove armageddon is just round the corner and Ive noticed there are a lot of writers out churn out pure fiction year after year and are lauded for it.”

        Now there is an interesting logical fallacy. “there are a lot of writers out churn out pure fiction year after year and are lauded for it.”

        Imagine that, pure fiction versus mostly fiction?
        Still, mostly loud, shrill, false alarmism.

    • Closing line: “They are unsure how far north they will be able to sail.”

      jono1066, you wrote that his business is doing things and getting paid for it — do you know who is paying him to do this?

    • One’s “business model” is to hustle rich people out of money by playing on their fear of so-called “climate change”.
      It would not be at all surprising if he loses his boat or worse on one of these stunt sailing trips.

    • Then I suggest you have him read “THE ICE MASTER” and other works like it, which clearly show how people who do what your friend does, often get scores of other people killed. The person(ality) is the only thing worth shooting. We’ll keep the data as a shining example of stupidity.

    • Climbing into a barrel and floating over Niagra Falls has been made illegal. The stupidity of the act itself cannot reasonably be outlawed.

      Please, next time someone breaks the “barrel law”, point out that they only broke the law. Please don’t point out that the individual is stupid, an idiot, or a charlatan trying to get attention/money and not caring about anyone else; please don’t point out how selfish he is; please don’t call attention to the individual moral flaws that led up to the recless act.

    • If Pen is running a transponder (it would make sense to do so) With a position and time update you might be able to select which track is his: https://www.marinetraffic.com

      There only a dozen or so boats in the area. Several marked pleasure craft. Looks like the chart only runs up to 85N So might not be able to see it if the goal is 90.

    • I don’t care if he’s ok, or mentally vacant…I hope if he gets stuck up there, they LEAVE HIM there. He was warned. He was given data. If HE ignores all of it and does it anyway….no ice breakers or helicopters for him. Natural selection at work.

  3. Aussies had their ‘turkey’ sailing to Antarctica, now the Brits as competitive as ever have their ‘turkey’ proposing to sail to the Arctic. Lot of fun to be had.

    • As long as no arctic icebreaker crewmen are injured trying to save him when he inevitably gets iced in – it is all fun, games, and propaganda!

    • While it’s all “ice free” and “sailing to the north pole” and “record low ice coverage” the media (and the BBC in particular) will be all over this.
      As soon as it turns to “stuck in heavy ice” or “had to be rescued because of the ice conditions” there’ll be media silence.

  4. Who wants to wager that the MSM will proclaim the expedition a success despite what they do or actually find?
    I heard this story on BBC’s World News on the radio. It was fallowed by s story of some Brit who lost his pooch while on holiday. Now he has gone back to the vacation spot to see if he can find the family mutt. I’m NOT kidding, this was a news story on the BBC.

    • The pooch story is one of the better ones on the BBC World Service, something has actually happened, i.e. it qualifies as news, unlike much of the so-called news, which tends to be: here is something that is about to (or may) happen, something that will make us all feel good. News used to be about trade figures and earthquakes, now it is all about feelings, as in “politician heckled in meeting” (a genuine lead item recently on the BBC), OMG, someone is angry and upset, fire-up social meedyah, and start another outrage bus.

      • For complete immersion in feelings, take your BBC World with a side of radio drama… some sonic tapestry such as a routine visit of a Vicar to a lady’s drawing-room. If you nail the audio against a compressor-limiter every tiny noise becomes huge. It begins with small talk with the servants about provisions, then a knock on the door which is opened with a little (giant!) squeak, the announcement and invitation to be seated, footfalls and rustling sounds, then the Lady Of The House enters and they let loose a barrage of sharp spoken and mumbled pleasantries, shuffling sounds like the ruffle of clothing, all the while a patter of politics, triffids, some question about lineage or heaven forbid, church gossip. At some point there is the tea ritual, a rollicking tirade of noises that combines the clattering of trays with the clinking of cups, cribbage about crumpets or biscuits, various liquid sounds, two people negotiating honey and lumps and stirring in unison which gives way to repeated slurps within the discourse. Sometimes you can tell the actors aren’t teaing because the voices lack the spittley effect of lubrication on the lips, so I imagine a room somewhere whose walls are covered in buttons, each one producing a tea sound, with a nervous fellow stabbing them at random. Rustling of paper is also welcome to hear, perhaps a contract or newspaper. The disengagement of the visit lasts as long as its onset with byeish pleasantries exchanged, the telltale acoustic signal of voices in the hallway. It is leisurely civilized interaction performed skillfully, yet in my imagination the Vicar and the Lady may well had disrobed and done the deed as all this sonic ruckus was going on. If you have a stereo set you can put the news on the left and the drawing room cacophony on the right.

  5. I’ll repeat my post on notalotofpeopleknowthat

    It seems they [Pen] left at 03:00 GMT yesterday morning (Tuesday).
    However, it wasn’t without mishap. According to his Twitter feed, the Bagheera was beached on a sand bar whilst leaving Nome harbour earlier.

    Good start.

    • Have you notified the Canadian Navy so they can send icebreakers to save you again? And are you going to pay for that rescue, or will tax payers it that cost, yet again?

  6. To hear it on the news last night you would believe that the North pole is now ice free because of unprecedented ice melt and global warming.

    BBC once again showing their fervent belief in the AGW religion and unquestioning determination to promote it at every possible (or impossible) opportunity.

    • The BBC?

      Biased?

      Surely not!

      Jeremy Vine (12 noon – 2pm, daily topical discussion and music show on Radio 2, big in the UK) was hosting a discussion on the Charlottesville “Alt-Right” Neo Nazi demonstration turning violent, Trumps reaction, so on and so forth.

      I emailed Jeremy pointing out that Nazi is an abbreviation of Nationalist Socialist Workers Party, of which Hitler was the figurehead, therefore any demonstrations including a Neo Nazi element are influenced by the Left, not the Right.

      But of course the MSM, including the supposedly independent, licence fee funded BBC, will distort anything to accuse the Right of anything they can possibly dream up.

      My email wasn’t read out.

  7. Hadow is a publicity-seeking moron, sailing another “ship of fools” into danger.
    If he thinks he is going to get within 1000km of the North Pole, he is delusional (a characteristic of climate alarmists).
    You can check out sea ice extent and thickness on this blog
    My only concern is that this idiot is going to endanger others, if he ends up having to be rescued.

    • That’s the kicker.

      It should be made clear to this cretin that if he and his fellow travellers get into trouble, there is NO rescue at any taxpayer expense. See how keen he is then…

      These types only prosper (along with their message, subliminal or not) when they are warned that the consequences of their actions will have to be borne by them.

  8. It must be global warming wots doing it cos in Oz, fresh off the keyboard at F%&k Facts media we have Steve (aka Stefan) Lewandowsky turning up as … wait for it … a screen writer who will assist on developing scripts with more Cli-Fi content. Climate Fiction folks, almost an oxymoron in itself. Oh Stefan Magoo, you’ve done it again.

    go to http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/climate-fiction-forum-sees-tv-drama-as-one-solution-to-global-warming-20170815-gxwew4.html

  9. Best year to try this was 2012. Arctic sea ice has been growing since, but some people are just slow to find out.

    • Nansen data shows current sea ice area greater than not only 2012, but ’11, ’15 and ’16 as well.

      • Griffie is playing with “extent” and “area” again. The ice happens to be unusually dense this year so “area” scores much higher than “extent”.
        For Hadow this is of course bad news.

        By the way why don’t you go straight to “volume” Griffie? That is completely modelled with no actual data at all.

      • But said it’s all gone Griff, your squiggly line god told you that. So aren’t you sailing there as well Griff?

      • Griff

        when will it be ice free? take the Tony M bet come on put your posting where your mouth is.

  10. Arctic sea ice is notoriously variable, according to Richard Lindzen. Its extent depends on the confluence of many factors. How far back do reliable records go? How reasonable is it to imagine that any observed trend is outside the range of naturally internal variability? It’s very difficult to take seriously a person who argues that a change in *insert favourite sea ice metric* is primarily a function of man made emissions of CO2. The same thing could be said about all of the climate metrics.

    • You could even start with the date people even ‘knew ‘ there was an Arctic in the first place. For a majority of history travel was along cost , then between island , then routes with good winds and for trading . None favored the far north or south. Even the knowledge of their existence , let alone any measurement from them , is simply not that old .

    • Malcolm, Records Go?
      With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up,

      Unless he gets beyond 83°34′N, it is not Unprecedented, Not a Record and will only prove no real change since 1895.
      The crew disembarked, fearing that the vessel would be crushed, but Fram proved herself equal to the danger. On 8 January 1895 the ship’s position was 83°34′N, above Greely’s previous Farthest North record of 83°24

    • He should be told his on his own – no taxpayer dollars spent or innocent lives risked if he gets into trouble. Lets see him get on then. If this turns into a further post of the similar comment made earlier, apologies. The other comment vanished into the aether.

  11. Pen Hadow’s mind is right!
    He has already made it to the destination and you, sinner!

    Just ask the BBC! The AP! the DC Post! the NYT!, the SF/LA/Chicago/….
    They all “religiously believe” and will give you the …..
    …what? You don’t believe them?
    just because they pocket $$$ and propagandize doesn’t mean
    …they are aren’t similar to a sack of hammers
    ….and will make sure their kids go to the best of the best schools.

  12. “Professor Mark Serreze, director of America’s National Snow and Ice Data Centre, said the North Pole was still surrounded by nearly 800 miles of solid pack ice as of last week.”-climatedepot

  13. I suspect he’ll head for the NW passage and only turn north during his run if the ice near the pole loosens up.

    • It is the middle of August, he is out of luck, ice ain’t gonna do nothin’ but get thicker from here on out.

      • Ice in the arctic melts until the end of the first week in September IIRC on average, so it has three weeks to go. That’s why this guy has timed his departure as he has. He’s aiming to hit the NW passage at the ice-extent minimum, I suspect.

      • Looking at NSIDC it appears this is not a typical year, so I see another icebreaker led rescue in this clown’s future.

      • If he really wanted to get there he would have left earlier and been waiting.

        He knows he cant’ get there, and is timing everything for the best excuse to turn around.

      • Wonder if he has a performance clause in his contract? Have to get to blahblah coordinates for cash&carry!

    • The Northwest Passage is difficult this year. There is still a lot of ice in the stretch from Taloyoak to Bellot Strait. He might not even make it through the passage without icebreaker assistance.

  14. Reaching the North Pole in a sailboat? Pen Hadow got to be kidding!

    British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.

    “With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.”

    How is the Arctic ice melting? Let us count the ways

    1. Arctic ice minimum volume will be reached in a couple of weeks at more than 6000 km3, which is 1000 km3 more than 2015 and 1500 km3 more than 2016.

    It was very warm in the Arctic above the 80th latitude last winter. Late summer two hurricane strength storms broke up a lot of ice up and transported it south to areas where it was bound to melt. The ice area reached a new low, except for the year 2012, but the ice volume hit a new all time low on Sep 9 2016.

    2. Northern Greenland ice has already started growing

    3 The ice mass on Greenland has grown more than 150 km3 above normal this season.

    4. The average Arctic temperature above 80 degree latitude has already dipped below freezing.

    5. The Arctic ice area will still decrease for another month or so since sea ice does not start forming until temperatures are -4 degree C, but the ice volume is near its minimum since snow season in the Arctic has already started, and new snow on ice stays, and fresh snow has a higher albedo than old, tired ice.

    The North East Passage choke point Cape Chelyuskin is still blocked. That is one week later than last year and three weeks later than 2015

    Pen Hadow and crew set sail out of Nome 0300 GMT Aug 15. My prediction: They will reach the 80 th latitude, a full 600 nautical miles short of their goal.

    With the supporting charts: https://lenbilen.com/2017/08/16/reaching-the-north-pole-in-a-sailboat-pen-hadow-got-to-be-kidding/

    • and still claim it was only possible thanks to ‘climate doom ‘
      and in classical ‘heads I win tails you lose ‘ style , otherwise known has climate ‘science’ if they stopped by ice further south than than expected that will also be ‘proof ‘ of climate doom .

    • Cape Chelyuskin will likely remain blocked, since Arctic temps have no retreated below freezing, almost a week ahead of seasonal average date. The Arctic has remained below average temps for almost all days since April.

    • The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…

      It is growing because of increased precipitation – as snowfall.

      Storm patterns have lead to an awful lot more snow falling on parts of the Greenland ice.
      It isn’t necessarily’cooling’ causing that.

      and note that the ice cap is still likely to decrease in volume, as calving from glaciers reduces overall volume and in recent years has exceded the volume added from snow…

      The NW passage is likely to be open by September (as it has been for a decade)

      and I think we are already at a lower extent for the date than 2016…

      • However the fact that the snow doesn’t melt this summer seems to indicate that it isn’t exactly balmy up north.

        By the way there hasn’t been this much snow this late in the Scandinavian mountains in living memory.

      • Great! When Greenland Ice is shrinking, the cause is Global Warming! BUT when the Greenland Ice is growing, the cause is also – Global Warming!!!

        It’s almost as if no matter what happens, the cause is always Global Warming!!!

        Hey Griff – try inserting the phrase “The will of God” in place of the phrase “Global Warming”, and you will find that every statement you make means exactly the same thing, except that it will be a bit more obvious that you’re just a run of the mill medieval cleric in modern garb.

      • Minus 33 degrees on July 4th 2017. Uh-huh. All to do with precip and not related to cold temps, right ? And of course, when there’s a future low precip year and ice accumulation decreases, that will be guaranteed proof of warming and nothing to do with the low precip ? ROFL.

      • wws: “It’s almost as if no matter what happens, the cause is always Global Warming!!!”

        Duh! In other shocking news, water is wet.

      • “calving from glaciers reduces overall volume and in recent years has exceded (sic) the volume added from snow…”

        Water flows downhill, ice flows downhill at a more leisure pace, but flows nevertheless. More calving is a function of more accumulation at the head of the glacier. You might make the case of climate change causing more accumulation at the top of the glacier, but the case for a net imbalance caused by warming temperatures is unwarranted speculation driven by climate hysteria.

      • @griff…right it is an increase in rainfall as well as cooler than average temps. The main driver of all of that is the change in wind patterns where over the last 3 years there has been a stream of moisture laden surface air pushed north up the Atlantic, which then rained out mainly in southeastern Greenland. The current gain of SMB has come from Arctic air streaming across Baffin Bay and onto the ice in northwest Greenland. It is very probable that the Greenland melt season is over for this year, unprecedented

      • “The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…It is growing because of increased precipitation – as snowfall.” — Griff

        And snowfall is caused by…? Right. Cold.

        Pathetic.

      • “The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…”

        Griff the map of temps in Greenland has looked like this for most of July and August:

    • There is a decent chance he will, at the least, lose his boat.
      If not his life or the lives of his crew.

      • Yeah, but the sat photos show it’s solid ice once you hit 80°. They can fiddle-fart around when they hit that line, but that will be the limit of their progress.

    • I stopped by the web page and just happened to notice that it’s title is “Follow Arctic Mission on its voyage around the North Pole.” Quick, catch those goal posts!

  15. Still some 2 to 2.5 meter thick ice up there at the North Pole. Hope they have a big Ice Breaker (for their sake)

    • er… I think you are misreading that…

      The chart shows under 2 to under 1.5m ice at the pole
      There’s barely any 2.5m ice left.

      and it is very far from solid/100% ice coverage toward the pole

      I’d say he might be in with a chance -see this:

      • Sure, but can you sail there on a fiberglass sail boat? They have no chance in succeeding but it does make for feel-good (bad?) headlines.

      • Perhaps it should be pointed out that both maps are pure modelling, i e hypothetical.

        Ice thickness can only be measured in winter (October-May) when there are no melt pools on the ice. In summer satellites have no reference sea-level to measure the ice freeboard since it is impossible to separate melt pools and open water.

      • Griff your map was all wrong when you showed the western portion of Hudson Bay ice free and the polar bears were for the most part still out playing on ice that the Canadian Ice Services was showing. I don’t think the accuracy is worth much … ie errors of 50% or greater and lots of missed ice.

      • Griffie is very fond of “Polar View” because for some reason it always shows much less ice than all other sources (Russian, Canadian, Norwegian, Danish or US).

  16. Nice boat though….extra flexible fuel tanks strapped on the cabin tops (blue and black) and the ubiquitous rag hanging to dry on the lifeline….real sailors!

    My wife and I are sailors — but —- warm waters only!

  17. There is a logistics group, The Polar Continental Shelf Project, which facilitates scientific work in the arctic … no fuss, no muss, no bother … just professional. Then there are the adventurers who are the ‘polar’ opposite. It’s fine if people want to do dangerous things in a dangerous and stupid way … we just shouldn’t reward them with publicity. It’s not like they are doing anything useful like exploring uncharted territory or anything like that.

  18. This is the September average Arctic sea ice prediction

    From:
    https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/july

    Only 4 weeks left of slow melting, and it is probable that the September average will be at ≥ 4.5 million sq. km.

    When the BBC says:

    With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.

    They are simply lying. The Arctic is not melting at an unprecedented rate, and there is no chance the trip to the North Pole can be done over water. Liars, liars, you should stop taking people’s money to lie to them.

    • Well extent currently lower than last year…

      Second lowest ever by NSIDC measure
      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

      and this is difficult to read but looks like lower volume than last year
      http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/

      the arctic is still melting, declining on all counts.

      There is variation each year -this has been a cold year with poor melt conditions – but the trend is still down.

      It is absolutely clear this year is already lower on all measures than 2016.

      • However, Nansen data reports ice area now above 2016, 2015, 2012 and 2011.
        How do you give him a 5% chance to get through 2+ meter thick ice? Or even .25 meter?

      • Hmmm. Is this indicative of a pause in global warming? I recommend the continued use of linear trend to hide the pause.

      • the arctic is still melting, declining on all counts.

        No Griff,
        The US National Ice Center places current ice extent in the Arctic exactly on top of the 10-year average

        The Danish Meteorological Institute, and EUMETSAT agree. The Japanese agency JAXA says the same.

        The Arctic has not melted at all for the past 10 years, and considering from the lowest years of 2007 and 2012, it has recovered some ice.

        We might not know what will happen next, but we do know what has happened these past 10 years. We also know what we have been told these past 10 years and it was not true. Alarmists lie when they talk about the future, and they lie when they talk about the past.

        And you personally have been wrong on this issue. 2017 is going to come as one of the recent years with the least melt in the Arctic. A very good year for the ice, if you happen to like it, despite how warm it has been. It is clear to anybody with two neurons that GSAT do not determine Arctic melt and a lot of experts have demonstrated they are not experts at all in their subject.

      • “It is absolutely clear this year is already lower on all measures than 2016.”

        Lying as usual I see, Griffie

        extent (NOAA/NSIDC)

        area (ROOS)

        By the way a pretty good trick reading the volume off a chart showing extent…..

      • No, not all counts.
        And there is zero evidence that the Arctic sea ice is having any impact either way on climate or the environment.
        Additionally there is much historical evidence that ice has been lower in the past than it is now.
        And even then there was no long term climate or enviro impact.
        You are just arm waving and hoping to convince people there is a hurricane from the breeze your arms make.

      • What would be great is a sensor fail like it did before and the graph plummet to zero and see how many fools we get.

  19. If the wind moves ice around enough to block reaching the true North Pole, not the school globe North Pole, it will be blamed on the rotten wind due to anthropogenic global windbags like Go…it will be due to rotten winds because of AGW. If the group reaches the school globe North Pole I will be convinced that these people are dumbasses and that public education truly does suck.

  20. “in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.”

    The owner of a company I once worked for was a big time sailor and 20 years ago showed us photos of a cruise he took to North Pole. When we asked him where the ice was he told us that every so often the exact pole location is ice free and quite a few craft had sailed there before. Could anyone confirm?

    • sometimes there are open gaps – polynas – of a few thousand meters. Nobody has ever sailed there without icebreaking: there has never been open water from any coast all the way to the pole (in recorded history).

      The Us subs like the Skate found gaps with thin ice using sonar and broke through… but that’s a differnet thing to finding open water all the way from a coast to the pole, using no icebraker.

      something that is definitely, sadly, coming. Maybe, just, this year. I’d give him a 5% chance, given this:

      • Well Bob, expert opinion is you nearly saw it this year. And still might at the last moment.

        Why do you think we won’t see open water to the pole in the next 2 to 5 years?

        Why do you think the current thin ice/low volume/little thick multi year ice situation is going to turn around?

        You tell me when it will recover to pre 2007 levels (it hasn’t in a decade)

      • Yes, it is rather concerning that the satellite composite images show the Arctic Sea covered with ice. Very concerning, indeed.

      • Griff if you think he has a 5% chance how about a bet and I will give you 20 : 1 odds …. would you be up for a $1,000 US dollars?

      • When will the Arctic be ice free?
        Well according to the prophets and models it already has been ice free, since 2014 or so.
        So Griff is right on track.
        /not
        We were nowhere any closer to an ice free north pole now than in the early 1960s or so when American subs went there…..
        But wait that was in the midst of the ice season!
        The climate trolls are so full of it….

      • Griff: I don’t find it concerning at all. For once thing, it’s LOCAL. So it doesn’t count. What happens in the Arctic is not global.

      • Sheri -the whole point is that it is NOT local…

        changes in the arctic affect world climate and weather systems over a wide area.

        The recent path of the jet stream is directly related to conditions in the arctic…

      • Yes! And the changes in the arctic are IT IS STILL COVERED WITH ICE, [snip]. Reality, you really don’t like it, do you?

        [No need to get personal. -mod]

      • Griff

        Dodged it again have you, at least Tony was willing to put up, you are a fraud, I told you pick any date you want and I’ll take the other side.

  21. He’s going in that thing?

    He’s braver than I thought!

    With apologies to Carrie Fisher’s memory.

    • Yeah the unfortunate part is there is some international agreement that says you have to rescue them. I think we should invoke Darwinian theory and perhaps fail to hear the distress call.

  22. Looking at those Ice charts, I think he’s got a decent chance of making it as far as the Franklin did back in the 1850’s.

    • Yes, about as far, but from the opposite direction. If he follows Amundsens track he will probably get through. Not ceratain though.

      As a matter of fact in the first year 1845, Franklin sailed all the way around Cornwallis Island and reached 77 degrees north, something that has rarely been done since and would definitely not be possible this year, then in 1846 he sailed straight down Peel Sound, which is rarely open (not yet this year for example). Unfortunately he took the wrong turn when reaching King William Island and got stuck in one of the worst areas for ice in the whole western Arctic. This and two bad ice years (1847-48) was fatal. If he had gone east of King William Island like Amundsen he might well have gone through the NW passage in 1846, and almost certainly in 1847.

  23. Too bad Arctic temps have already fallen to -1C, about 3 weeks earlier than 30-yr average:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Once Arctic temps hit -4C (269.15K) sea ice starts to increase rapidly, which could be in just a couple of weeks.

    Pen Hadow will soooooooo have to be rescued by the Coast Guard in three weeks and his beautiful sailboat will likely be crushed by ice if he doesn’t abandon the foolish quest in time…

    There is such a thing guts and glory, and then there is sheer stupidity….

    This insane trip clearly falls under the ironically ideological stupid category.

  24. Did they mean the geographic North Pole or as they did in the past mean the Magnetic North Pole? By the way, where is that sucka now a days? Vuk?

    • Hi Tom
      This might be a bit confusing, but no fear, there are two magnetic north poles, neither coincides with the geographic pole.

      Positions of the north dip pole (red) and the geomagnetic pole (blue) 1900-2020 estimated from the IGRF magnetic data. (credit: British geological survey)

  25. Interesting article in the (London) Times today. Apparently tourism to the UK is set to boom because our summers are getting hotter. (Yesterday my wife had to go to the waiting room of a railway station as it was too cold outside. But that was near Glasgow. Global warming hasn’t reached us in the far north.) But beaches are disappearing because of coastal erosion caused by – climate change. But the rain is getting heavier so that might put the foreigners off, etc, etc. Extreme weather, blah, blah, blah.

  26. He’d better wear his ear plugs. I hear the Arctic is “screaming”. Probably gets louder the closer to the NP you get.

    • Sea-ice in motion can be fairly noisy, but it hardly screams. When the motion is slow it makes strange, almost musical sounds, fast motion gives grinding noises. And melting glacier ice gives off little popping sounds all the time as the gas bubbles in the ice burst.

      Otherwise the Arctic is pretty quiet away from seabird colonies.

  27. Haddie the Pen and Christopher Robin’s expotition to the North Pole:

    “Good morning, Christopher Robin,” called out Haddie the Pen.

    “Hallo, Pen Bear. I can’t get this boot on.”

    “That’s bad,” said Pen.

    “Do you think you could very kindly lean against me, ‘cos I keep pulling so hard that I fall over backwards.”

    Pen sat down, dug his feet into the ground, and pushed hard against Christopher Robin’s back, and Christopher Robin pushed hard against his, and pulled and pulled at his boot until he had got it on.

    “And that’s that,” said Pen. “What do we do next?”

    “We are all going on an Expedition,” said Christopher Robin, as he got up and brushed himself. “Thank you, Pen.”

    “Going on an Expotition?” said Pen eagerly. “I don’t think I’ve ever been on one of those. Where are we going to on this Expotition?”

    “Expedition, silly old Bear. It’s got an ‘x’ in it.”

    “Oh!” said Pen. “I know.” But he didn’t really.

    “We’re going to discover the North Pole.”

    “Oh!” said Pen again. “What is the North Pole?” he asked.

    “It’s just a thing you discover,” said Christopher Robin carelessly, not being quite sure himself.

    “Oh! I see,” said Pen. “Are bears any good at discovering it?”

    “Of course they are. And Rabbit and Kanga and all of you. It’s an Expedition. That’s what an Expedition means. A long line of everybody. You’d better tell the others to get ready, while I see if my gun’s all right. And we must all bring Provisions.”

    “Bring what?”

    “Things to eat.”

    “Oh!” said Pen happily. “I thought you said Provisions. I’ll go and tell them.” And he stumped off.

    The first person he met was Rabbit.

    “Hallo, Rabbit,” he said, “is that you?”

    “Let’s pretend it isn’t,” said Rabbit, “and see what happens.”

    “I’ve got a message for you.”

    “I’ll give it to him.”

    “We’re all going on an. Expotition with Christopher Robin!”

    “What is it when we’re on it?”

    “A sort of boat, I think,” said Pen.

    “Oh! that sort.”

    “Yes. And we’re going to discover a Pole or something. Or was it a Mole? Anyhow we’re going to discover it.”

    “We are, are we?” said Rabbit.

    “Yes. And we’ve got to bring Pro-things to eat with us. In case we want to eat them. Now I’m going down to Piglet’s. Tell Kanga, will you?”

    He left Rabbit and hurried down to Piglet’s house.

    The Piglet was sitting on the ground at the door of his house blowing happily at a dandelion, and wondering whether it would be this year, next year, some time or never. He had just discovered that it would be never, and was trying to remember what “it” was, and hoping it wasn’t anything nice, when Pen came up.

    “Oh! Piglet,” said Haddie the Pen excitedly, we’re going on an Expotition, all of us, with things to eat. To discover something.”

    “To discover what?” said Piglet anxiously.

    “Oh! just something.”

    “Nothing fierce?”

    “Christopher Robin didn’t say anything about fierce. He just said it had an ‘x’.”

    continued…

    • I went on one of those “expotitions” myself, when I was 4. Saw a mountain (Mt. Monadnock) off in the distance from my bedroom window, and decided to climb it. Made my lunch (PB&J, of course) too. Even then, I was planning ahead. Trouble was, it was mid-winter, with snowdrifts over my head. Didn’t get very far. So, I sat on the front porch and ate my lunch. True story.

      • Bruce-san

        I went on one of those “expeditions” during my college days….

        My buddy and I thought it would be a great idea to hike up Blood Mountain in Georgia (Appalachian Trail) in late November in the late 70’s… We had a VERY rare early snowstorm event which dumped over 1 foot of snow overnight and we had to hike through 15 miles of wet snow down the mountain…

        We both wore gators,”waterproof” boots and excellent cold-weather clothing, but our boots eventually got waterlogged and our feet froze…. Once your feet get wet, you’re SERIOUSLY screwed.

        I suffered from 1st degree frostbite on all my toes, which were tingling until Christmas….

        You play with Mother Nature, you lose big time, every time….

  28. This article could also be titled ‘How to travel the world and get someone else to pay for it.”

  29. Scoresby senior reached 81 degrees north in 1806 and found himself only some 600 miles from the Pole and reported open water ahead. Unfortunately he was not stocked with supplies and could go no further.

    I wrote about the great melting of ice which was noted by British whalers in the late 1790’s here

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/

    Unfortunately there was some trouble with some pesky colonials and the royal navy did not mount an expedition until 1817 . There was known to be considerable variability in ice for over 30 years prior to this. It is a mistake to believe the north was always in a rigid deep freeze.

    Tonyb

    • I think the northern record for a non-icebreaker was set by Sadko in 1935 with 82 deg 42 min North, in waters east of Franz Josephs land, i. e. almost exactly 500 miles from the North Pole, the previous record was 82 deg 30 min by Roosevelt north of Ellesmere land in 1908.

    • Tonyb,

      I have always been thankful for that research you did in 2009. It was a gold-mine, and also a springboard for further research.

      One of the most fascinating things was the amazing amount of sea-ice that was flushed south into the Atlantic around 1817. There was ice down to 40 degrees, and bergs grounding on the coast of Ireland. That ice had to come from somewhere, and to the north of 80 degrees on the Atlantic side there apparently was hardly any ice at all. I think the Whalers could have gone further north, but whales tended to congregate at the edge of the ice, and the edge of the ice was closer to the west and even the east, so that was where they went to earn their bread. (Some say that all that ice further south in the Atlantic caused the SST to be so much colder that it caused the “Year Without A Summer” in Western Europe.)

      If a similar event occurred today you can bet Global Warming would get the blame, but many Alarmists tend to deny that the arctic was so ice-free in 1817. (It might happen again. Their “Quiet Sun” began in 1798, and then there were two gigantic volcanic eruptions in 1810 and 1815 that may have resulted in an extremely meridional flow that flushed all the ice south. We now have the Quiet Sun, but lack the two ginormous eruptions happening 12-17 years after the quiet begins.)

      By the way, besides pesky colonials there was that pesky dude Napoleon Britain had to deal with. Once peace came England had a Navy of 600 ships, and…what to do with them? The answer seems to have been, “Explore, (and claim), the arctic.”

    • Plus all those column inches and TV clips to pad out the CV for th lucrative lecture circuit.

  30. With 2,500 miles of Arctic coastline and ever-growing commercial, research and rescue interests in the Arctic, the U.S. should be maintaining a fleet of icebreakers. We have three active ships with one planned for the 2020’s.

    Russia, with 15,000 miles of “beachfront” shoreline in the Arctic, has 47 diesel and 4 nuclear icebreakers, and 31 “other” – supply, patrol and research – vessels with substantial icebreaking capabilities. Four more have been commissioned.

    Finland has seven ships, and Canada has eight in service, with one proposed. Even Greenpeace has an icebreaker.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_icebreakers#Canada

    In 2007, Russia staked a symbolic claim to the Arctic by dropping a canister containing the Russian flag on the ocean floor from a submarine at the geographic North Pole. They declared that “The Arctic is ours, and we should demonstrate our presence.”

    “Having only one heavy icebreaker … it is the one aspect I lose sleep over,” said Admiral Zukunft, Commandant of the U.S. Coastguard. Even though he says he is pushing for funding from Congress to build six new icebreakers by 2023, the U.S. is already behind.

    “US Coast Guard chief warns of Russian ‘checkmate’ in Arctic”
    https://www.stripes.com/news/us/us-coast-guard-chief-warns-of-russian-checkmate-in-arctic-1.466707

    The plight of the Shell Oil’s exploration in the Chukchi Sea, and the spectacle of environmentalists stuck in the Antarctic ice, requiring the Polar Star rescue further emphasize the need for more icebreakers.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/29/shell-to-quit-us-arctic-due-to-unpredictable-federal-regulatory-environment/

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/04/usa-to-the-rescue-us-coast-guard-ice-breaker-asked-to-assist-antarctic-rescue-vessels-trapped-in-ice-due-to-spiritofmawson-fiasco/

    Even the Penn Hadow misadventures should draw the eye of military and maritime leaders concerned over the head start and aggression that Russians have in the area:

    Both Canada and U.S. should upgrade their icebreaker fleets.

    / Off soapbox

    • Yes… and you didn’t even mention the new Russian arctic military bases…

      not did you mention that the Russians accept the science that arctic sea ice will continue to decline and that they expect further use of the Northern Sea route WITHOUT icebreaker support… the icebreakers only extend the season.

      • And yet the satellite composite images STILL show the Arctic Sea to be covered with ice. You need some heavy medication for that lying problem of yours.

  31. He will be trying to get to the North Magnetic pole because there is absolutely no chance he could ever get near the actual North pole in a boat like that. The media of course will quite happily fudge the difference.

    • The mission site referenced by Vukcevic above says

      “Follow Arctic Mission on its voyage around the North Pole”

      • They could fulfill that mission statement simply by going through Panama Canal, across Atlantic and Med, through Suez Canal and down Red Sea, across Indian Ocean and through Indonesia and Philippines with a quick stop at Midway(just to say you been there!) and back to Alaska. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy!

      • This Hadow guy just does not plan correctly! No vision. He could turn this Trip Around The Poles thing into a year long reality TV show, make millions off merchandising and syndication.

  32. According to WIkipedia,

    Rupert Nigel Pendrill Hadow known as Pen Hadow (British, born 26 February 1962), is an Arctic Ocean explorer, advocate, adventurer and guide. He is the only person to have trekked solo, and without resupply by third parties, from Canada to the North Geographic Pole.

    He is also is the first Briton to have trekked, without resupply by third parties, to both the North and South Geographic Poles from the respective continental coastlines of North America and Antarctica respectively

    His legend reads like that of a latter-day Captain Scott, and he has mastered the art of PR-speak: “our Arctic Mission voyage of discovery” evokes Christopher Columbus and the opening soundtrack of Star Trek.

  33. Alaska has lots and lots of sled dog kennels that support dog sled racing. He can certainly pick up several used dog sleds, including the non-banned tow-behind trailer variety and have some enterprising outfitter put up a mast and make a custom sail for his trip.
    Actually, he’d be smarter to pick up used Iron Dog snowmobiles for the dash to the pole. It would be easier, imho, to make them waterproof for traversing leads. And much, much faster.

    Oh, and maybe he can plant a few trees along the way (ref. companion WUWT article) to help with sea level rise.

  34. My all time favorite is top gear’s 2007 arctic expedition… dogs and trucks. The Icelandic crew rocks.

  35. I’m sure the BBC could make it into a 10 part series with a group of over paid ‘experts’ to summarise every episode!!

  36. Oh! Great thrill ! The BBC Radio 4 has just started to serialise the great Pen Hadow adventure this morning. More thrilling episodes to come. Wonder how they’ll deal with him being stranded in ice !

    • Clearly someone at BBC Radio was reading this thread! Wonder if they will give Anthony a cut of their take on this thrilling series of broadcasts?

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