Catlin Crew Out Of Time

Guest post by Steve Goddard
http://www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/arctic-islands/icons-03/03-08-blizzard.jpg
An Arctic Blizzard

As reported here two weeks ago, April 30 is the last safe date to recover explorers from the Arctic.  The people who rescued Pen Hadow from the Arctic in May, 2003 said this :

“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”

In today’s Catlin update they say:

The ice team are positioned in the path of a huge storm. Pen reported this morning that winds are picking up, and the Ops team can see that over the next 36 hours the team will experience blizzard conditions with winds of up to 40 knots and a strong possibility of heavy snowfall.”
By the time the storm is over, they will have reached what has been described by the experts as the last safe date for recovery, both for them and for the rescuers.  They are still 542 km from the pole, which is 82 days away at their average rate of travel so far.
What is the sensible thing for them to do when the delayed Twin Otter plane (hopefully) arrives later in the week?

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138 thoughts on “Catlin Crew Out Of Time

  1. Well given that they have not been too comfortable recently; they should get out of there as soon as weather allows.

    Not a very great idea for a demonstration, is my view.

  2. I thought the plan was to hunker down, wait for the imminent complete melt, inflate the rafts, break out the Aloha shirts and float out on the current while sipping maitais.

    I’m just flabbergasted at the amount of ice and cold they are experiencing–in the ARCTIC of all places–who could have seen that coming?

  3. I truly hope that they return safely, without further frostbite or injuries. More importantly, I hope those on the rescue mission do not take unnecessary risks with their personal safety to rescue the Three Stooges.

    Years of ridicule is an appropriate outcome.

  4. “What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”

    So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.

    I hope they all survive their self-imposed ordeal…

  5. Good point George – Guardian readers should know by now that the Arctic is a place for sunbathing and cuddling cute Polar Bears.

  6. A measly 6.59km/day ?! Shackleton must be spinning in his grave. I bet we see some scathing comments from Pen about his tent mates once he starts yacking to the media.

  7. Hopefully no one dies in the process of extracting them. Especially the extraction team whom they put at risk with this stunt.

  8. It’s clear what the sensible thing is – and Ann Daniels who has four children and who is often crying under her hoodie

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/local/localbrad/4324359.___Hoodie____helps_Ann_keep_going_on_the_ice/

    will probably agree. But these folks were not sent to do reasonable things. They were sent to bring the prophecy from the AGW God, that may help the global carbon junta to regulate the world in Copenhagen, or to be sacrificed.

    The April 30th deadline is now absurd, and it has always been. 97% of my readers

    http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/04/pen-hadows-scientific-expedition.html#hadowpoll

    think that they won’t make it to the North Pole. Among them, 57% of all readers think that they will be dramatically evacuated. 16% think that at least one of them will perish.

  9. Ah yes! But science marches on!

    “The team declined the offer of a ‘drop’ because of its one-way nature. They’d be unable to hand over scientific results, film and photographic footage – the expedition’s essential data – for delivery to the UK.”

    I hope they get some video of the following:

    “Directly in their path is a stretch of open water that’s getting wider as the days go on, meaning they face the prospect of putting on their immersion suits and swimming across if satellite images are unable to detect an accessible crossing point.”

  10. “Completely off-topic, but this is an interesting story about the strange world view of the green”

    what is strange? is no mystery that the green main objective is to cause the death of 2 or 3 billions people. anything that goes against this mad project is “environmentally unsustainable”

  11. AMSR-E shows that there is more ice right now than any other time on this date (in that time series).

  12. These people are heading into Darwin Award territory. “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”

    Perhaps it’s time to start pressuring the sponsors of this quixotic quest to pull the plug and get these people out and safe, while there’s still time.

  13. Mike Bryant (09:42:34) :

    “yddar (05:02:20) :
    Important Message:
    The german Alfred-Wegner-Institut finished an expedition today:
    The Ice in the arctic is two times thicker than expected: 4m instead of 2m”
    (the document of the link is lost)

    Anyone check out were the Wegener Institut ice measurements were taken?. I gather when they say that the ice is twice as thick as expected – 4 metres, they are talking about 1st year ice then. Even the Catlin expedtion were reporting thicker than usual first year ice (Ice that is still probably thickening up in that region. Also, if this is a big three or four day storm on top of thicker ice, the arctic is going to have a higher albedo for a bit longer than usual. The temperature at Alert on the northern tip of Ellesmere Is., the closest station to the C crew is -21C: See the interactive map of the arctic with clickable weather station data:

    http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm

  14. P Folkens,

    here is my previous post with translation from German:

    From Radio Bremen interview:

    “The research aircraft Polar 5 ended today in Canada a recent Arctic expedition. During the flight, researchers have measured the current ice thickness at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown. Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than scientists had suspected.

    Normally, after two years newly formed ice is over two meters thick. “Here ice thickness was up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. For scientists, this result is contradicting the warming of the seawater.

    Besides the ice thickness, also the composition of the air was investigated. With the help of a laser, the researchers reviewed how polluted the atmosphere by emissions from industrialized countries. In the next few weeks the results are evaluated. On the expedition were some 20 scientists from the U.S., Canada, Italy and Germany.”

    The translation is mine so I cannot guarantee the accuracy.

    Here is more about the expedition:

    http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/pam_arcmip/?cHash=17cb2bdafa

  15. There is a point where physical decline hits an inflection point and mental capacity follows. I would not be surprised to see them die out there.

  16. I’m surprised they didn’t bail out earlier.

    Then they could have claimed that they were surprised at how rapid the ice was melting and they proved that the sea ice is even thinner than originally even they thought.

    “We barely made it out alive and we could literally watch the sea ice melting before us. When they took off from Eureka, we thought we had enough ice to last buoy use for several days, but when the plane landed, it was sinking into the ice and the last person had to literally jump into the plane as it was getting airborne. Thank the Goracle we made it out alive.”

  17. At Richard De Sousa

    Hi Richard,

    R U the same Richard De Sousa that wrote a humorous article on gossip with a quote from Patricia Meyer Spanks (initials pms), somehow connected with the University of Toronto?

    I have used that article in a couple of sermons and then saw your name in the list of comments today.

    Grant Hodges

  18. I also find it funny that they have kept changing the goal posts on this trip.

    Initial starting point was supposed to be 80N, 140W, which would have put them right in the middle of the Beaufort Gyre (home of those playful, cuddly polar bears from the AIT video), in the midst of what has historically been an area dominated by first year ice.

    Then they actually started close to 130W, so as to be “traversing through an area with more multi-year ice” even though this is still part of the Gyre, and the satellite images projected this area to still be predominantly first year ice.

    They have now drift East more than 7 degrees, meaning they have traveled further East than North in this trip. Basically, they ignored the known ice drift pattern of the currents in the Gyre.

    The Gyre’s currents rotate in a clockwise circle, taking the ice pack above it to the East and South, pushing the floes against the Northern Canadian coastline and breaking up the pack in the process. If they would just sit still, they would end up in Alert in a couple of months

  19. I think all this ICE focus from the alarmists is grotesk. And i think we sceptics should be better to point out the obvious problem:

    I asked a guy in a debate:
    “What does best say something about the global temperatures?
    a) The Ice area?
    b) The global temperatures?

    The guy didnt answer. But its so obvious, that in times with falling global temperatures we are all hypnotised to focus on the ice instead. Very convenient. Until of course even the ice dont reflect any potential sign of global warming. I think its briliant the way that Goddard and Anthony and everyone disproves the lies about ice extend, but it would be nice repeatedly to also remember all, that this is about global temperatures and nothing else. And global temperatures HAVE stagnated for 10 years, and appears to have falling tendensy.

    The global tempartures speak a clear language never mind what on earth happends to the ice. As long as people has ice for their Martinis, ice itself is not that important.

    Another question to the alarmist:
    Which ice area is then important?
    a) Antarctic winter ice?
    b) Antarctic summer ice?
    c) Arctic winter ice?
    d) Arctic summer ice?

    Of course, only d) really showed something that significantly could be interpreted as global warming, and then only d) seemed to have his interest.
    And then, what happends when even d) is not usefull for the alarmists anymore?? What will they then try to focus on?

    Lubos: “They were sent to bring the prophecy from the AGW God, that may help the global carbon junta to regulate the world in Copenhagen, or to be sacrificed.”

    As A Dane im so ashamed of this Copenhagen meeting dec 2009. Many Danes thinks it brings a good light on Denmark, but in all ways its a disaster im sad my town Copenhagen will be linked to this scandal in many years ahead.
    (By the way Lubos, a guy called Roman i work with -SAP- seems to know you?)

  20. I don’t think they ever planned on being sensible in the first place. Their website says they planned on trekking across the ice for “around 100 days”. They didn’t leave until Feb 28. That means they didn’t plan on being picked up until the first week of JUNE.

    Could a large helicopter make it to their position and back?

  21. “Das Dokument existiert nicht (mehr). (trans: The article does not exist.)” Correction: The document no longer exists.

  22. I can not wait for the Catlin crew to return.

    I expect them to post a video on their website depicting them hurriedly drilling ‘one last sample hole’ before departing.

    Later some industrious hacker will examine the video file and determine that it was actually taken BEFORE they left for their adventure on the Arctic ice.

  23. I have no more sympathy for these fools than I had for Siegried & Roy after the lion attacked. Play with fire…
    Their death might save trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
    Martyrs for what they perceived as a good cause. Let Al Gore and his ilk say hossanahs in their memory.

  24. I expected that guy who was going to Kayak the ice free arctitc ocean to be on his way by now, afterall, all I see on NBC, CNN, CBS and ABC is the arctic is melting at an alarming rate.

  25. To answer Frank Lansner (10:49:20),

    “What will they then try to focus on?”

    The answer is ‘Ocean Acidification due to increased atmospheric CO2.’ This train is already running down the tracks.

    What is so cute about acidification is that CO2 emissions are directly linked to industrial production. Since the objective of the AGW people is not to limit global warming, but rather to limit economic expansion, this gives them further tools to attack consumerism.

  26. The money shot was going to be our heroes swimming the gap to save their lives as the plane waits on the other side. Alas, the hard won data left behind. What a loss to humanity! And just at the close, Ann, with tears says in a close up, “We always had hope. Imagine what a drowning polar bear goes through.”

    If they freeze to death on the ice due to global cooling, it will take a bunch of spin to get the story right. I’ll start working on it. Thinking “Climate Change” not “Global Warming” is probably key.

    It could be worse. I mean if one of them got eaten by a bear. How do you spin that?

  27. Dear Frank, I can only guess which Roman – but do you work with Roman Staněk? I hope you enjoy it! ;-) I also know Roman Beránek and a few other Romans.

  28. I hope the remainder of the ice doesn’t evaporate (as according to Waxman) before the resupply plane arrives. I’d hate to see them eaten by the tundra.

  29. OK, So temperatures aren’t rising and the Arctic isn’t melting – but we can still try to find something to blame on CO2!

    They believe the world’s oceans are becoming more acidic because of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and they are predicting the end result could be a massive extinction of sea life.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8022194.stm

  30. There’s a photo today of Pen Hadow with a 12 foot ice drill in hand. Apparently the “unexpected lack of multi-year ice” has come to an end. And I found this quote from the Catlin site interesting:

    “There’s no question that the Catlin Arctic Survey’s manual measuring techniques have the capacity to provide the first large scale direct measurements of ice thickness in the High Arctic,” says Seymour Laxon, from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London. “Drilling holes might be the most basic method, but it’s also the most fundamental.”

    Obviously Mr. Laxon has never heard of the Polar 5 Expedition that has just returned data questioning the Catlin claims. And not to harp on semantics, but how does a “basic” hole differ from a “fundamental” hole?

  31. With articles like this one, I am starting to wonder what is gong on…..are people really this stupid?
    Planet On the Brink

    http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1888728_1888736,00.html

    Though scientists have directly assessed the viability of fewer than 3% of the world’s described species, the sample polling of animal populations so far suggests that we may have entered what will be the planet’s sixth great extinction wave. And this time the cause isn’t an errant asteroid or megavolcanoes. It’s us.

  32. I’m sorry that this is a little OT but I cannot find where else to put this. This was on Yahoo and the sentiment makes me cross.
    “Icebergs break away from Antarctic iceshelf”
    “There is little doubt that these changes are the result of atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has been the most rapid in the Southern Hemisphere,” explained David Vaughan from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20090428/tsc-icebergs-break-away-from-antarctic-i-c2ff8aa.html

    There is a certainty in this point of view that raises suspicions considering the nature of the ice cracks as shown in the photo. The Antarctic is moving further into Winter and getting colder by the day. What looks convincingly like structural failure is not even considered and does not even appear to have been explored?

    So Australia has landed an Airbus on the this ice shelf; http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/175767 and here is a video of a C17 landing on the same ice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exR0-NSsM44&feature=PlayList&p=6B305E6C69C8FEFC&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=64
    I sometimes wonder whether all the physical effort used to study the poles might be bringing about the very changes that that effort is trying to find.

  33. “They should get out before ice extent goes above the 1979-2000 mean.”

    We all know that chart is flawed, there is no ice on the planet now, it’s all melted.

  34. Lol…there would be a certain irony if the idiots were ice cubed, though no doubt their fellow travellers, and other useful idiots, would be putting the blame on AGW.

  35. Keith (10:43:43) :
    I also find it funny that they have kept changing the goal posts on this trip.

    Initial starting point was supposed to be 80N, 140W, which would have put them right in the middle of the Beaufort Gyre (home of those playful, cuddly polar bears from the AIT video), in the midst of what has historically been an area dominated by first year ice.

    Then they actually started close to 130W, so as to be “traversing through an area with more multi-year ice” even though this is still part of the Gyre, and the satellite images projected this area to still be predominantly first year ice.

    They have now drift East more than 7 degrees, meaning they have traveled further East than North in this trip. Basically, they ignored the known ice drift pattern of the currents in the Gyre.

    The Gyre’s currents rotate in a clockwise circle, taking the ice pack above it to the East and South, pushing the floes against the Northern Canadian coastline and breaking up the pack in the process. If they would just sit still, they would end up in Alert in a couple of months

    Fine except they are not in the gyre! Sitting tight would likely take them out via the Fram Strait where they could be picked up by boat (like the Russian station NP-36 which is ahead of them). Here’s the current drift map with their approximate position on it (X). Rather than ignoring the drift they are making good use of it.

  36. I know this is “gallows humor” as our Teleprompter in Chief likes to use, but I have to point out that if they did die from exposure up there I think it would be extremely difficult to spin that outcome into a pro-AGW stance.

  37. They are down to the hard tack:

    “Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days. This is a frustrating for the team. The bad weather must pass before the resupply plane can come in with the food and fuel the team need to progress north.

    On a normal sledging day the team would consume up to 6000 calories. However, after studying the weather charts, a long delay for this resupply was anticipated and the team have now slashed their ration intake to 1000 calories per day, enabling them to last for a further 7 days”

    Makes you wonder what they are hauling on those 100kg sledges. They can’t even eat the dogs.

  38. This point may have been raised already re this chart: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png. The melt rate looks to be fairly similar from year to year, as does the re-freaze rate, although this is a small time frame. Therefore the summer is not long enough to melt all the ice. To melt all the ice the maximum extent would need to reduce to around 8 million square kilometeres, or the summer melt would have to be extraordinarily rapid.

  39. Brian (10:38:31) :

    I have made a translation of the article.

    Please send a copy to the NSIDC, the Catlin Team, Obama etc. and have mercy for the Polar Bears.

    http://www.radiobremen.de/wissen/nachrichten/wissenawipolararktis100.html

    Translation from German to English by Ron de Haan

    Surprising results
    Polar Ice thicker than expected
    Research Aircraft Polar 5 in Bremerhaven.

    The Research aircraft Polar 5 ended it’s latest Arctic Expedition today in Canada.

    During this flight the researchers measured the actual condition of the Arctic Ice at the North Pole during which operation they flew over areas where no aircraft went before.
    The result: the Polar Ic was much thicker than expected.

    Under normal circumstances polar ice will reach a thickness of two meters after two years. “In this case however, ice with a thickness of up to four meters was measured”, according to the speaker of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research.

    The thick ice conditions contradict the recent warming of the Arctic Ocean waters.

    Besides the thickness of the ice, the composition and quality of the air was researched.

    The researchers used a laser to measure the extend of pollution caused by emissions from the Industrial countries

    The coming weeks will be used to evaluate the data.
    About twenty scientists from the USA, Canada, Italy and Germany participated on this expedition.

    End of article.

  40. No doubt the reported blizzard is a result of Global Warming generating undue and unseasonal precipitation. Those poor people, caught in the vicious pincers of AGW. I hope they make it out alive and sell their data to the highest bidder.

  41. Stephen Skinner (11:34:48) :

    There is a certainty in this point of view that raises suspicions considering the nature of the ice cracks as shown in the photo. The Antarctic is moving further into Winter and getting colder by the day. What looks convincingly like structural failure is not even considered and does not even appear to have been explored?

    It certainly has been and I have given references to it recently. Have you considered why the structural failure occurs? Thinning of the ice and separation from undersea pinning points are factors.

    So Australia has landed an Airbus on the this ice shelf; http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/175767 and here is a video of a C17 landing on the same ice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exR0-NSsM44&feature=PlayList&p=6B305E6C69C8FEFC&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=64
    I sometimes wonder whether all the physical effort used to study the poles might be bringing about the very changes that that effort is trying to find.

    Different place by a few thousand miles.

  42. I thought the plan was to hunker down, wait for the imminent complete melt, inflate the rafts, break out the Aloha shirts and float out on the current while sipping maitais.

    I can’t let such an inaccurate statement stand.
    They are spelled “Mai Tais”.

  43. Indiana Bones (11:31:35) :
    There’s a photo today of Pen Hadow with a 12 foot ice drill in hand. Apparently the “unexpected lack of multi-year ice” has come to an end. And I found this quote from the Catlin site interesting:

    “There’s no question that the Catlin Arctic Survey’s manual measuring techniques have the capacity to provide the first large scale direct measurements of ice thickness in the High Arctic,” says Seymour Laxon, from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London. “Drilling holes might be the most basic method, but it’s also the most fundamental.”

    Obviously Mr. Laxon has never heard of the Polar 5 Expedition that has just returned data questioning the Catlin claims.

    Apparently they haven’t come across as thick ice as the Catlin expedition, surprising considering they focussed on areas where the thickest multiyear ice is (2 out of three areas).

  44. They are brought back and during debrief reveal that they are now skeptical of the causes of “climate change”. Prince Charles hears this from afar (those ears aren’t just for looks, you know), and scrambles to find a way to shuffle the three converted explorers into obscurity, claiming they must be quarantined due to “unknown pathogens”, or the like. A press conference is held and at the time Charles is waxing eloquent on how alarming the data is, Hadow bursts forth from behind the curtain shouting “LIES, ALL LIES, I’M TELLING YOU,…” His frostbitten fingers, blue and molting, and the facial bandages giving him a phantom countenance, all combine so you know he is telling the truth, ……………. ——————-Hey, a guy can hope, can’t he?

  45. From the Catlin website I see that Prince Charles ‘for the sake of our children and grandchildren, prays that we heed the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey’, and can only commend this project to us. Hmm they haven’t finished yet – their findings will be patchy indeed and probably have no credibility in the eyes of those of us not already brainwashed by AGW lunacy. Perhaps he has the help of Mystic Meg or some other soothsayer in his recommendation?
    I take great pleasure in walking to my village store to buy the Sunday Telegraph each week so that I can read something sensible on the topic – the latest update by Christopher Booker – who also directed me to this site – Thanks Chris & Anthony!!

  46. A comment on Steven Goddard (11:11:23) : “They should get out before ice extent goes above the 1979-2000 Mean” http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries

    If you take the NSIDC data from the posted .txt files of all 30 years of Arctic and Antarctic monthly ice area data (~730 data points for both poles combined), here is what you get:

    An absolutely flat trend line for GLOBAL ice over the entire 30 years (since November 1978) 0% per decade, every decade. Smoke that one Al Gore.

    The Antarctic has faithfully offset any cyclic melting up north and some times vice-versa (such as years when the south pole actually was below average, but the north made up for it).

    …and as I always chirp: why does the NSIDC keep throwing out the 2001-2008 data when calculating the average, as if 1979-2000 is a sacred reference marker ? That means they ignore 30% of the data points.

    I think the Catlin folks have a few more weeks before they need to leave…seems like there is plenty of ice up north for the landing of a plane for a late spring rescue.

  47. Steven G’s link regarding CO2 causing ocean acidification and sea life extinction:
    I believe CO2 concentration has been much higher in past eras, so was there sea life extintion back then? I do not think so. Do these scientists not realize this or do they just ignore it? I wish I could contact them and ask.

  48. The Darwin Awards might have some prime candidates.

    While hands on science has many benefits, satellites might have been safer for measuring the thickness of the ice. Submarines would also have been a better choice.

    To go down in history as dying for a belief in human caused global warming would be a really foolish accomplishment for the Catlin Survey.

    Having lived in harsh winter conditions up in Edmonton in the 1970’s when it was frequently -30c to -45c for months at a time I learned to respect Nature’s fury of cold. But then these “scientists” of the Catlin Survey “believe” it’s warming up North… all those red colors on the computer generated maps must be having them think that they were headed to Costa Rica or some place actually warm rather than deadly cold.

    Their stupidity is only exceeded by their irresponsible actions putting the lives of others, those that will attempt to save them, in danger. Criminal charges, of negligent homicide, should be brought against them should anyone perish (including in their own team). As they are likely within Canadian territory should a death result this outcome could occur.

    In many places in Canada if you put yourself in danger in the wilderness and needed to be rescued you have to pay the full costs of the rescue.

    They also warn us about going out onto the ice during winter. Sheesh any Canadian kid knows you risk a lot going on the ice that has water underneath it…

    And for what? A couple of ice measurements that can just as easily be taken by satellite? Whacked in the head.

    Sorry, I’m for smart science not science experiments that cost lives.

  49. I would still go with the assumption that they got out when the biometrics stopped being updated in march. All they need now is a blizzard to hide their fake return/departure and they don’t have to admit defeat. They can also move out of the cosy log cabin in the Canadian mountains and back to the waiting media.

  50. The latest update says:
    “Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days.”
    And yet over the last 5 days they also claim to have moved 18km nearer the pole!

  51. Not quite sure why the remarks by a carrier from a past trip — with no relationship to Catlin — are considered to be especially pertinent (even if everything the man says makes sense, which it does).

    As many here know, I interviewed the Catlin director of communications a couple of weeks ago, and he said for the record that they had signed a contract with their air carrier for a final pickup date of May 25th.

    The article is here:

    http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/

    I completely concur that lives are being needlessly risked.

  52. How do we evaluate the so-far anecdotal evidence of Arctic ice thinning from the Catlin team as compared with the presumably high quality data from the Germans?

  53. That ice they’ve hunkered down on must really be moving on some powerful currents. They’ve managed to drift north another 6.65 km in one day.

    So, suppose they tough it out and keep on trying for the pole. In the remaining 40 days, they’d have to average over 13 km each and every remaining day to reach their destination. That’s twice what they’ve managed to do so far in the first 60 days. Plus, they’ll probably have to add in an extra resupply flight in another 20 days. They have everything working against them, including a healthy dose of common sense.

    They’ll never make it to the pole; they’ll be lucky to make it to 100 days. Let’s not have any martyrs to this fantasy cause. Hop aboard the resupply flight, take as much as you can with you and leave the rest behind before you risk any lives in this misbegotten adventure.

  54. Steve (11:54:19) :

    I wonder if they drilled holes in the ice of the plane runway to check the tickness and add a few more data point. For the runway to be flat, it must also be 1st year ice.

  55. I think the pilot of the rescue aeroplane should have the only say in when they are lifted off the ice. He needs a margin of safety both in terms of weather and ice condition. Frankly if he has to rely on the three stooges to decide if the landing area is acceptable maybe he should just drop them a lifeboat and then Pen Hadow can do a “Shackleton” return. Some time in the next two years.
    Or the Royal Navy can pop up and waste million of UK Taxpayers money on a Nuclear Sub rescue. Better still the Prince of Wails can use some of his surplus cash to fund their return. No prizes for the Arctic Heroes return I trust? Just Catlin bullsh*t to entertain us……….

  56. PaulM (13:09:56) :

    The latest update says:
    “Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days.”
    And yet over the last 5 days they also claim to have moved 18km nearer the pole!
    ——————–
    You know, that was a method that was tentatively used to get to the North Pole by early explorers. They would get as far as possible and get the boat to freeze up on the ice. They figures that since the ice are still moving, they would eventually get there. The early trials had the boats crushed and they then used boats with an egg-shaped hull so that the ship would get lifted as the ice froze. But even after being caught on ice for many years, I don’t think they ever made it there that way.

  57. Guys (and gals):
    WordPress is chopping the end off all these looooong URLs. Try using the TinyURL facility instead.
    Thanks,
    George M.

  58. *rubbing hands with eager anticipation*
    Will Prince Charles’s comments to the MSM about the success of the Catlain scientific expedition be even more stupid than Waxman’s recent quote.

    Maybe just maybe Charlie boy will also see a photo opportunity flying the royal airliner to meet the Catlain crew upon their return from the ice.

  59. Regarding the Arctic Bali Hai Cruise….

    “The Catlin team deserves the Knucklehead award of the year.”

    Looks to me like they are working to retire the Darwin awards.

    I hope they don’t take any heroes with them.

  60. Wow trying to survive on only 1000 calories per day in such cold temperatures would be really difficult – and dangerous! They better hope the weather clears and they are able to get supplies in quickly or else they are in serious danger.

  61. If they run out of food, I wonder if they will choose the Donner Party option?

    This trip is over. One cannot survive in those temps very long at 1000 Calories per day let alone begin a trek again after starving themselves.

    Anthony is right, they need a rescue flight ASAP, not a resupply flight. Their Otter does not have the range without several refueling points and those are affected by the blizzard also.

  62. It’s bad enough that these folks are completely off base but you have to ask why they would risk their lives to prove a flawed theory. Narcissism and ego projection has to be the answer. They are so driven to be right and project their own very personal importance for the cause of AGW that they are risking their lives? They may be remembered posthumously as just being very foolish.

  63. I have been tracking their progress using my own spreadsheet. They moved 7.5 km at a heading of 354 degrees which is almost due north. Since they are camped, this means that the ice has moved this much in the past day.

    The continuous kml data at http://www.solaradata.com/Solara.kml shows that they have moved another 6.3 km at at heading of 320 degrees since the last lat lon of 85° 11’ 36” N, 124° 02’ 29” W. The ice is moving.

    Their batteries may also be running out along with their food, but this is speculation.

  64. ” They believe the world’s oceans are becoming more acidic because of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and they are predicting the end result could be a massive extinction of sea life.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8022194.stm

    For the oceans to become MORE acidic, wouldn’t they have to at least BE acidic first?

    The oceans are alkaline. If anything, increased CO2 capture would make them LESS alkaline, moving them closer to being neutral (at pH 7). But it’s apparently not scary enough to say that the oceans might be moving closer to neutral… no, better for the propaganda campaign to conjure up mental images of vats of bubbling acid eating away at the frail ocean.

    Gimme a break! The studies can’t even agree as to whether higher dissolved CO2 leads to less calcification in various marine life, or more calcification!

  65. Last year we had the kayak guy – this year it’s the Caitlin team. These people are giving British explorers a bad name! As a Briton I can only apologise, but seeing how the once proudly sceptical scientific institution, The Royal Society, is now heavily politicised I can’t promise that this will be the last stupid exploration with pre-conceived ideas and aims.

  66. I’ll be the one to say it: I hope they die so that their deaths will draw attention to the truth of this issue. If they succeed, then it will be just another propaganda piece. With their deaths, they can bring actual change by allowing the world to industrialize and bring energy, clean water, and all sorts of modern, life-saving services to the poor across the globe.

    I know it sounds harsh, but their goal is to, unintentionally perhaps, do the opposite of that and is a tremendous irony that we should all consider.

    (this piece written in the form of “A Modest Proposal” type satire, but is definitely a relevant talking point.

  67. Kenn Borek Air is reportedly going to evacuate these adventurers. All in a day’s work for Borek – I hope it goes well. They’ll need to adjust their altimeter though – that ice is a bit thicker than expected…

    Here is some of the Borek story:

    Tuesday, 24 April 2001

    Dr Ronald S Shemenski, doctor at the Amundsen Scott–South Pole station is the only physician among 50 researchers working at that research station. He recently suffered a gall bladder attack and has been diagnosed with the potentially life–threatening condition known as pancreatitis.

    An eight–seat, twin–engine plane fitted with skis for landing gear is now scheduled to fly as early as Wednesday from the Rothera research station on the Antarctic peninsula and pick up the 59–year–old doctor. The plane arrived at Rothera last week after a flight from Punta Arenas, Chile, accompanied by a backup aircraft.

    Flights to the South Pole station are normally halted from late February until November because of the extreme winter cold and darkness. But the rescuers are worried that Shemenski’s condition could worsen in the coming months, when an airlift out of the South Pole would be virtually impossible.

    “The wind’s blowing like hell. We’re getting reduced visibility and blowing snow. If the winds calm down and there’s less cloud cover, we’ll get better visibility,” said Steve Penikett, general manager of Kenn Borek Air Ltd, the Canadian airline company leading the evacuation for the doctor.

    Aviation experts say this would be the first time a plane has attempted a landing at the South Pole during the polar winter, where temperatures are now 75 degrees (–59 Celsius) below zero – 143 (–97 Celsius) below with the wind chill – and skies are nearly pitch–black some 20 hours of the day.

    *******************

    P.S. They made it- the first time it’s ever been done.

  68. Stan,

    you forgot to mention the next British team on their way to the pole:

    – 1 x physiotherapist
    – 1 x landscape gardener
    – 1 x skipper

    “As well as drawing attention to green travel by avoiding planes, they plan to take air temperature, wind speed and snow depth measurements”.

    All above data I can get live from several web sites with a couple of clicks. And of course they are dragging 100 kg of supplies on sledges.

    I guess the next UK expedition will include:

    – 1 x pub landlord
    – 1 x aromatherapist
    – 1 x lorry driver

    They could drag a some sort of measurement instrument on the ice as well. Thermometer?

  69. RE: Chemist (16:48:18)

    Although I understand the sentiment let’s not wish for anyone to shuffle off this mortal coil unnecessarily even if spoken satirically.

    Unlike those in the green movement who wish for massive depopulation by any means I value all human life, even those that appear foolish. Who knows one day they may change.

    Kind Regards

    Michael

  70. Why would anyone wish for bad things to happen to the Catlin Crew? They obviously believe very strongly in what they are doing, and are suffering immensely for their beliefs.

    Not everyone has the presence of mind to question authority.

  71. The question was asked about why they use 1979-2000 as the base line for their average. They answer that question by saying that to do so would create a moving average which would confuse people. Ya right.

  72. At least they will not catch the Mexican Swine flu up there.

    Down to 1000 calories a day in that hardship area.
    Are there any dietitians out who can give us a precis diagnosis of their health predicament?

  73. While the team have been resting and waiting resupply for 5 days now, I thought I’d track the location and distances from the website.
    28/4 midday: 85deg 7′ 34″N, 123deg 57′ 42″ W, dist travelled=382.25, distance to pole=542km, avg daily distance=6.59
    29/4 midday: 85deg 11′ 36″N, 124deg 2′ 29″ W, dist travelled=388.9, distance to pole=535.6km, avg daily distance=6.6

    So they’re not travelling, yet moved 6.4km closer to the pole, which is faster than the daily average. Is that just drifting ice causing this or something else? Anyone else been tracking positions?

    Unfortunately I’ve only started looking at the position from yesterday, but I’ll continue now!

  74. The 3 Icekateers are in deep trouble.
    If the storm behaves like those around here, it will stall.
    The email I received from Caitlin Exp. stated that the 3 were fully aware of the risks, and so it seems Exp. HQ is good with that.

  75. I just watched Ann’s latest video, 04/28, and for the first time I felt true compassion for these misguided people. She’s got real pluck and believes in her cause – “to provide knowledge to the world”.

    Curiously, she says that she doesn’t know why (given the ‘torture’ she’s endured) she doesn’t quit. Then she reflects and says that she doesn’t want to teach her kids to be quitters when the going gets rough.

    Seems to me her kids would be better off with their mum at home, not risking making them orphans by indulging a fantasy that her torture will save the planet.

  76. Obviously, the Catlin team’s measurements show that the ice is so thick, it will be perfectly safe to wait until June to leave the Arctic. Onward! Excelsior!

    “…Pen Hadow, by the faithful hound,
    Half-buried in the snow was found,
    Still grasping in his hand of ice
    That banner with the strange device:
    Cee-Oh-Two, Bad!”

    (Apologies to Longfellow)

    Seriously, may they all return in good physical health. In good mental health would be way too much to ask for.

  77. Advice:
    1. Read the Old Testament. There are several gems in there about fools.

    2. Meanwhile, the insurance agent that has funded this comedy hour should quickly and quietly remove said explorers with their bio-data and core samples, and bury it in the back yard back at the headoffice.

    3. Finally, consider this a failed try at cooking the books. The souffle has fallen and should be thrown in the trash.

  78. At that temperature, 1000 calories is not replacement. They must be consuming their own fat and muscle. They are in bigger trouble than they think. In fact, I’d guess that their judgment is impaired. Caring adults need to assume command.
    =======================================

  79. Reply to Steven Goddard (17:28:54) : “Why would anyone wish for bad things to happen to the Catlin Crew? They obviously believe very strongly in what they are doing, and are suffering immensely for their beliefs.”

    Don’t be angry for this reply…but it is NOT about people who “believe very strongly in what they are doing”.

    It is about ego, sponsorship money, a National Geographic video (more ego), meglomania…but it pretty-much boils down to the same reason James Hansen makes his declarations: self serving five minutes of fame of each day of being on the world stage. I really don’t think there is any depth to their scientific knowledge…I equate them to Al Gore and Henry Waxman: give them a few “facts” and they exploit them for personal gain. It’s all about getting your mug on T.V.

    I don’t really think anyone wants the Catlin folks to perish…but I really do think they need to learn a lesson…I was hoping for a badly frostbit nose…or perhaps total failure of their data recorders, etc. I just get so tired of hype. Today: it is swine flu. Last year, West Nile Virus, before that: SARS…and asteroids destoying us from space, yadayadayada *yawn*.

  80. Typo fix on last post: Megalomania (megalomaniac)

    Catlin synonym:
    Main Entry:meg*a*lo*ma*nia
    Pronunciation:*me-g*-l*-*m*-n*-*, -ny*
    Function:noun
    a mental disorder marked by feelings of personal omnipotence and grandeur
    –meg*a*lo*ma*ni*ac \-*m*-n*-*ak\ adjective or noun

  81. If they stay in the tents, keeping as warm and sedentary as possible, they will lose between .5 and 1 pound/day. Not a disaster yet, but…

  82. IMHO – with each passing day the chances of all three catlin team members surviving drops.

    1000 calories a day in a freezing blizzard…

    And if the freezing blizzard continues and they run out of supplies – what then.

    A debacle is in the making.

  83. A personal opinion, hunch, etc…

    On the motivation for Anthropogenic Global Warming Belief.

    It seems to me that inherent in AGW belief system is the view the humanity, and by extension, individual humans, are pivotal agents affecting the natural world around us. The implication is that we are powerful agents.

    If climate change is fundamentally driven by natural forces outside of Human Control, then we are powerless in the face of those natural forces.

    The desire for control over dangerous, threatening, frightening natural forces perhaps is tied directly to our survival instinct. Because, how many times have our ancestors been slaughtered by adverse natural forces in one form or another.

    Hence the attraction of AGW, it provides the illusion of power, where there is none. It becomes a “warm blanket” (no pun intended) for the fears of the individual.

    Hence the agitation when the AGW Myth is questioned, the illusion is in danger of being exposed, the solace of the warm blanket to be taken away, and the person exposed to the direct experience of the fear of powerlessness which is then experienced as a threat to life itself.

    The AGW Myth is like the Witch Craze Belief in the 1600s. Imagine yourself a poor farmer reliant on a pair of cows for your livelihood. One gets sick, it must be due to an act of witchcraft, someone marginal in the community is blamed and punished. Whether the cow dies of lives is luck, but the taking of action allows an experience of effective control, and the fear of powerlessness in the face of forces that are not understood and controlled can be masked for a time.

    Perhaps the Catlin teams commitment to the cause is driven by a deeper need to avoid feeling powerless.

  84. This discussion of the plight of these vainglorious fools is based on what we have been told by a source that has proven itself to be a veritable fountain of misinformation. We are being played. I’m not saying they aren’t out there on the ice. I’m just saying that to trust information on caloric availabilty is a little silly when nothing else they have provided has proven accurate or useful.

  85. Out of thier minds, out of time, out of a comic book, out on thin ice.
    Who knows the truth here.
    As the poster above states, we haven’t seen one ounce of proof that they are truly out there. Might as well flip a coin.
    Head..they are nuts
    Tails..they are faking it.

  86. Steveh

    Re keeping track of location data. Here are all the lon lat data I have to date converted to decimal deg. Some of the data were gleaned from Google cache.

    28-Feb Start estimate,-130,81.5
    06-Mar,-130.0755556,82.005
    11-Mar,-129.7172222,81.92583333
    20-Mar,-129.6622222,81.91083333
    31-Mar,-129.7747222,83.04027778
    01-Apr,-129.5527778,83.18611111
    02-Apr,-129.4075,83.33138889
    03-Apr,-129.4041667,83.48805556
    04-Apr,-129.335,83.62694444
    08-Apr,-128.9,83.87
    09-Apr,-128.975,83.86361111
    10-Apr,-128.9963889,83.88361111
    11-Apr,-128.8330556,83.84722222
    12-Apr,-128.9286111,83.93583333
    15-Apr,-127.9191667,84.27777778
    16-Apr,-127.9202778,84.37833333
    17-Apr,-127.8419444,84.46611111
    18-Apr,-127.7997222,84.52527778
    20-Apr,-126.4280556,84.66
    20-Apr,84.66,-126.4280556
    20-Apr,-126.4280556,84.66
    21-Apr,-126.1647222,84.75888889
    22-Apr,-125.9116667,84.88194444
    24-Apr,-124.2030556,85.01722222
    25-Apr,-124.1541667,85.10333333
    26-Apr,-124.1077778,85.11388889
    27-Apr,-123.9616667,85.12611111
    28-Apr,-124.0413889,85.19333333

    See my earlier post on the location info on this page at (16:13:34)

    Also, the locater beacon data is continuously updated here:
    http://www.solaradata.com/Solara.kml which can be opened with Google Earth. I also make a kml file and plot the above data as well.

    Resupply seems really iffy. See

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/ops_room.aspx?categoryID=31

    where it states:
    “Given the increased flying time and necessary additional fuel stop, clear weather is required in a total of 7 locations over a duration of approximately 12 hours, to enable the re-supply flight to make the round trip from its original destination of Resolute, via Eureka, and a mid-ocean fuel stop before touching down beside the Ice Team.
    Retracing the route, the weather must be clear in each of the same locations for the return trip.”

  87. I certainly hope they come home safely and that no one is lost trying to save them. But if the worst happens, it would have to count as an everlasting irony that they froze to death in the cause of global warming. You can’t make this stuff up. Life has a way of visiting unbelievable ironies on us.

    St. Peter: Hello, welcome to heaven. I hope you qualify to get in. What did you do with your time on earth?

    Pen et al: We froze to death in the great cause of man made global warming!

    St. Peter: You what?

    Pen et al: We were trying to prove that the earth was over heating and we froze to death in the attempt.

    St. Peter: (Calling back over his shoulder) Hey, come up here you guys and listen to this one. You won’t believe it. These guys say they were gathering proof of global warming and somehow froze to death in the attempt.

    Other Heavenly Official: (turning to the expeditioners) I’m sorry to hear you froze to death, but I’m sure it was for a good cause. Did you make a full and honest report of everything that happened on you expedition?

    Pen et al: Well, we weren’t really trying to give an honest report. We were more concerned with proving a point than with telling the unvarnished truth, if you know what I mean. So we may have stretched a few stories and left out a few things that happened. But it was in a good cause, wasn’t it? We were trying to save the world.

    Other Heavenly Official: Well, I understand, if you believe you are right and feel that’s more important than telling the truth, this really isn’t the place for you. But don’t worry, I think we have the perfect place for you. Not exactly heaven, but a wonderfully comfortable and restorative place for anyone who is very cold. In fact, it’s a place where you are guaranteed to warm up and where you can bask in the eternal proof that the sins of man causes great warming. How does that sound?

    Pen et al: Could we go there in the name of science? We wouldn’t want to do anything just for our own comfort.

    Other Heavenly Official: You bet, and you won’t even need to take those sledges with you. You won’t need radar or any other equipment to find the heat where you are going.

    Pen et al: Oh happy day. How do we get there from here?

    St. Peter: Oh you can’t miss it, just follow the warmth. It’s all downhill from here. Oh, and be sure to post you findings on your website when you get there. And you won’t need to lie about it this time. You will certainly feel the heat.

  88. Just Want Truth… (22:05:40) :
    “MattN (10:14:39) : AMSR-E shows that there is more ice right now than any other time on this date (in that time series).”

    All of seven years, wow!

    It does show that. And the Eisdicken–ice thickness–is showing it is also thicker than expected.

    And yet the average ice thickness a year ago was 2.8m ranging up to ~7m in the regions that were surveyed by the plane. So finding ice ranging from 2m-4m thickness there this year shouldn’t surprise anyone.

  89. “The Daily Show” on Tuesday night was promising that Wednesday’s show would include a reporter celebrating from the North Pole. It’s good to see everyone observing the end of the chilly season.

  90. Robert Bateman (21:05:19) :

    Out of thier minds, out of time, out of a comic book, out on thin ice.
    Who knows the truth here.
    As the poster above states, we haven’t seen one ounce of proof that they are truly out there. Might as well flip a coin.
    Head..they are nuts
    Tails..they are faking it.

    *********************

    Based on the comments of others here – I can’t be bothered to read the Catlin website – it seems possible we are being played, to maximize publicity and drama. This expedition has reported that it has lived on the edge of disaster since their sleeping bags allegedly got wet and frozen, yet somehow they carry on. Hope they make it back. If so, it will be in spite of themselves, by putting better people at risk to save their hides.

  91. At one point I was really concerned for these people. But now I’m beginning to wonder if anyone has ever really been in any danger.
    1000 calories a day? How do we know; because they said so? After all the transparent honesty about bio-data and so on, I find it hard to believe anything emanating from Catlin, especially ‘from the ice’. All I can see now is a cosy, carefully scripted soap opera that is building up to a predictable dramatic climax. Fictional Screen Writing 101 ‘The Melodrama’.
    Let’s see how gaunt and frost-bitten they really are after a sensational last second rescue from the rapidly melting ice. Will the plane make it as it fights to lift from the increasingly water-logged disintegrating ice floes? Almost…almost…YES! They’ve made it! If only they could have saved the polar bear! And now for the main feature. Spare me, please.

  92. Steven Hill (11:06:34) :

    I expected that guy who was going to Kayak the ice free arctitc ocean to be on his way by now, afterall, all I see on NBC, CNN, CBS and ABC is the arctic is melting at an alarming rate.

    That was Lewis Gordin Pugh. You can read his “Expedition Journal” at http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?page_id=157

    … except you can’t.

    If you try the “read Lewis’ diary” link to

    http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/wp-admin/page.php?action=edit&post=283

    You just get to a username/password login page. The same happens for the other link on the same page. Comments are closed of course.

    He probably wants us to forget his “Expedition”

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/09/polar-defense-project-deletes-the-tough-questions/

  93. Cathy wrote:

    I just watched Ann’s latest video, 04/28, and for the first time I felt true compassion for these misguided people. She’s got real pluck and believes in her cause – “to provide knowledge to the world”.

    Curiously, she says that she doesn’t know why (given the ‘torture’ she’s endured) she doesn’t quit. Then she reflects and says that she doesn’t want to teach her kids to be quitters when the going gets rough.

    Right. Mother’s Day is coming up. Her scriptwriter probably remembered.

  94. POI. Did you know, apparently the Arctic gets its name from the Greek word “arktos”, from my trusy 1925 Pocket English Dictionary, meaning, wait for it, “bear”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now not a lot of people know that! :-))

  95. And as the Catlin crew’s adventure comes to an end, we can but speculate as to what might happen.

    (Previously posted on a prior thread – take #2).

    Black Over Ice.

    FADE IN.

    OUTSIDE: LATE EVENING – APRIL – ARCTIC SEA ICE.

    – A weary group of three explorers, two men and one woman trudge across the ice. A pair of scientists, and their photographer, on a heroic mission to measure the rapidly thinning arctic ice.

    Leader: (Stops, lifts GPS Unit and examines readout) “Stop chaps – This is the resupply point”.

    Woman: “Thank goodness – I’m exhausted – Oh the Cold – the Cold. – Are we on time?”

    Photographer: (Clumsily Drops Camera – Mutters) “Damn frostbite.”

    Leader: (Responds) “30 minutes and the resupply plane will be here.”

    – The three unpack the equipment sled and assemble the tent that will protect them from the numbing cold.

    CUT TO.

    INTERIOR: HELICOPTER

    – 3 Men in dark suits, sit in the helicopter cabin. The final rays of the setting sun slash across the shining ice. In the distance can be seen the bright orange expedition tent.

    – The man in the rear seat lifts a military grade, .50 calibre sniper rifle and loads the first bullet into the chamber.

    CUT TO.

    INTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT

    Woman: (Cocks Head) “I can hear something.”

    Leader: “It’s the resupply plane!”

    Photographer: (Turns to Leader) “I’ve gotta leave on this flight – I’m dying on this f#@king ice.”

    Leader: (Outraged): “You will not! Are you a coward? – We’re saving the bloody planet out here!”

    Photographer: (Rips off glove, revealing a hand reeking with decaying flesh) “What the hell is this then?”

    Leader: (Puffs out chest): “A necessary Sacrifice. You can’t do great things without Sacrifice, and proving this ice is melting from Global Warming is a Great Thing.”

    Photographer: (Grimaces) “It’s bloody minus 35 degrees out there… All our equipment is broken… and were running out of Food!”

    Leader: (Triumph gleaming in his eyes – lifts an ice auger). “We have this – and it’s enough. – Now get the hell outside.”

    Photographer: (Hangs head…) “Alright… Alright…”

    – The photographer and the woman both exit the tent; the Leader puts the ice auger down and pats it affectionally before following them outside.

    CUT TO:

    EXTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT – ON THE ICE

    – The three explorers stare up at the hovering, black helicopter, as the side door smoothly rolls back.

    Woman: (Non-plussed) “Why is it a black helicopter?”

    Photographer: “Oh… Damn!”

    – The photographer turns and starts to run away from the tent, the helicopter floats like a stone 10 meters above the ice, the final rays of the sun flash off the tinted windscreen – a matt black barrel slides through the open doorway – a sudden gun shot rings out.

    – The photographer pitches forward through a red mist of his own blood and collapses onto the ice.

    – The woman screams and runs for the tent; a second gun shot cracks like a whip through the twilight. She falls before the tent, her blood gushing from a gaping wound in her chest.

    Leader: (Outraged): “What on Earth is going on? Stop this at once!”

    – The leader waves both arms widely. The matt black barrel pivots slightly to bear upon him.

    Leader: (Screaming with rage): “I order you to stop! Stop I say – Land that Helicopter Immediately!”

    – A single shot rings out. The Leader falls back onto the ice, a look of stunned disbelief on his face, his head rolls to the side and he can see the Sun sliding below the ice as he utters his final words.

    Leader: (Faintly, Dying): “But, we’re saving the planet”.

    – With a smooth roar of power the helicopter rises up and turns away, the gun barrel disappears and the door slides smoothly back into place.

    CUT TO:

    OVERHEAD SHOT:

    – The Tent door flaps in the breeze, the three bodies lie about like discarded refuse on pink ice. A pair of Polar Bears enters the field of view and saunter over to the nearest piece of available meat.

    CUT TO:

    INTERIOR: MORNING – LONDON OFFICE

    – The office is expansive and opulent; a large Van Gogh graces one wall, and a sculpture by Rodin stands in the corner. The office windows behind a magnificent desk overlook the heart of the London Financial District. A very well dressed executive sits at the desk, before him stands his head of public relations and media advisor.

    – The executive taps on the front page of a written report on the desk in front of him.

    Executive: “So, no Polar Bears are in the report.”

    Advisor: “Yes Sir, Polar Bears are of course – how might one say it – cuddly.”

    Executive: (Nods) “Just so. – And the deaths are attributed to – what?”

    Advisor: “The ice, certainly, it was the thinning ice that killed them, they fell through it you see, drowned in the icy waters, and the bodies were never recovered. A Tragedy”

    Executive: (Leans back, considering…) “And evidence, do we have some evidence.”

    Advisor: (Lifts a cloth bag onto the desk and opens it, withdrawing a small, 2 foot, ice auger) “We have this, the leaders very own ice auger.”

    Executive: “His own auger?”

    Advisor: (Shrugs) “Well a shorter copy.” (Arches eyebrow) “There is of course, no one who can say otherwise”.

    Executive: (Studies the Auger…) “So the ice is less than 2 feet thick. They fall through it, and drown.”

    Advisor: (Smug) “Precisely Sir.”

    Executive: (Stares at the Advisor) “And all because of man made emissions of CO2 which cause Global Warming.”

    Advisor: (With a knowing smile) “… Correct … Of Course Sir.”

    Executive: (Smiles) “Excellent. Put it on the wire, this has to have maximum coverage.”

    Advisor: (Straightens) “Consider it done Sir.”

    Executive: “Announce a Charity ball to honour their sacrifice, and charge a 1000 pounds a head, set up the presenters and invite the Prince – he’s always good for an endorsement.”

    Advisor: (Smiles) “I will get back to you with location, dates and a guest list Sir.”

    Executive: “Good work.”

    – The Advisor leaves and the Executive is left alone in his office. He walks over too the wide window and looks out over the city, his city as he likes to think of it. There is a light dusting of snow still falling, – it’s late April, almost May. He absently twirls the auger in his hand. He puts the other hand on the Rodin, stroking the smooth marble; it has always reassured him, this statue, its permanence, its beauty, its silky smooth touch.

    Executive: (Quietly to himself): “So much to do.” (Glances at the unusual autumn snow) “And so little time to do it.”

    FADE OUT.

  96. Recent photos on Catlin show Ice thickness measurements being made close to a pressure ridge and currentl show a tape measure with weighted gizmo bar being used to measure thickness.

  97. “Also, note a sun spot(?) on right of centre below the equator.”

    Amazingly, it’s a Cycle 23 event, as is evident from the low latitude.

    I thought we put a stake through the heart of 23!

  98. I just LOVE these final comments, when the moderators no longer care and have moved on to the next threads. They are pure enjoyment!

    If it is all real though (and, incredibly, it probably is), and if they can survive what is coming next, they will have weeks of solid ice on which to land a rescue or resupply plane. I hope they make it. If they know what they are doing they should be OK. But I would hate to be there myself: freezing half to death, ill-advised and misinformed, with that horrid feeling that one might have made a big mistake.

  99. from APB:

    “What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”

    So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.

    I agree, but maybe they insisted on using the paper from AL Gore’s science test. Those “D’s” can come in handy.

  100. Phil. (00:12:40) :

    Phil,

    Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?

  101. Alan the Brit (03:42:02) :
    POI. Did you know, apparently the Arctic gets its name from the Greek word “arktos”, from my trusy 1925 Pocket English Dictionary, meaning, wait for it, “bear”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now not a lot of people know that! :-))

    Good Michael Caine impression. ;-)

    It wasn’t a real bear though it was a mythological one, Zeus up to his tricks with the ladies again!

  102. Just Want Truth… (07:45:23) :
    Phil. (00:12:40) :

    Phil,

    Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?

    I don’t see why that conclusion is drawn from my pointing out that last year there was 7m thick ice in one of the survey regions last March?

    Given the strong outflow of MY ice through the Fram this year I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the 2009 melt comparable with the 2008 melt and maybe surpass it.

  103. Strange thing, they are waiting now for 6 days,

    “The Ice team have found a suitable runway (350m long x 100m wide x 100cm thick) and have spent the day preparing it in advance of the plane’s arrival later today.”

    And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
    Waiting for the resupply and travelling?

  104. Catlin says it takes Pen Hadow 4 hours a day to drill the ice. Now they have stopped for some 6 days he can’t still be drilling, surely? Especially on 1000 calories. The polar Bears are probably hungry too. How quickly can one fire a gun with frozen fingers and a tricky safety catch?
    Watching the almost 2 ton Walrus [Youtube] have its head nearly bitten off by a hungry Polar Bear would make me want a Gatling Gun, safety off! Plus lots of ammo!

    Keep that gun handy Pen. You do have a gun?

  105. Just Want Truth… (22:04:11) :
    Phil. (09:15:45) :
    Have you seen the graphs lately? Good luck with those hopes you have. You definitely need it.

    What a lood of absolute tosh you write!

    1. Have you thought that AMSRE from ijis may be on the new algorithm which will not jump at the beginning of june?
    2. The variation in year to year variations from now until mid june are small.
    and after mid june then the area STARTS to show the eventual minimum.
    This is obvious from the AMSRE plots.

    NB. I am making no prediction just stating that to make a prediction at this time is premature!!

    Vinny (07:43:20) :
    from APB:
    “What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”
    So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.

    Junk science – why? They seem to be using professional manual thickness measuring kit. They seem to be measuring close to ice ridges. They are making multiple measurements at different locations. Using this method I would assume an accuracy of much better than 10cm. This should be compared to the German plane giving proven inaccuracies of up to 1metre in 3metres and more generally 25cm.

    Also what is their strategy for their science please as I have not seen it written down?

  106. bill (04:34:47) :

    Have a look–try to be unbiased in what you’ll be seeing :

    http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

    It’s ok to say 2009 is far behind 2008. And with all the extra cold we’ve been getting, the unexpected thickness of the ice,and with the sun still being so quiet, it will take a miracle for 2009 to surpass 2008. But who knows, maybe these flows Phil is talking about will carry that huge difference away, maybe that’s the miracle alarmists will be looking for…. ;)

  107. Austin

    “There is a point where physical decline hits an inflection point and mental capacity follows. I would not be surprised to see them die out there.”

    If their mental capacity drops, bearing in mind how shambolic the whole thing has been from the start, we must be getting into negative territory!

  108. Carlo (14:00:28) :
    Strange thing, they are waiting now for 6 days,

    “The Ice team have found a suitable runway (350m long x 100m wide x 100cm thick) and have spent the day preparing it in advance of the plane’s arrival later today.”

    And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
    Waiting for the resupply and travelling?

    To paraphrase Galileo “E pur si muove” in this case it’s the ice that’s moving inexorably E.

  109. The simplest solution is to airdrop a couple of kayaks and let them paddle the rest of the way. Make sure the young ladies have some bikinis so they can get a good tan. Don’t forget the sunscreen.

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