Catlin Crew Officially Has Hypothermia (and Frostbite)

A very hard day.

From the Catlin web site today -

Hypothermia Posted by Gaby Dean
Monday, 06 Apr 2009 15:58
In disadvantaged inner cities it’s known in medical circles as Urban Hypothermia.  GPs adopted the term after seeing an increase, during winter, of elderly patients who have switched off their heating, fearful of the cost, and become ill as a result because of the cold.

Chronic, as opposed to acute, hypothermia is the official term.

The Catlin Arctic Survey Team have now been working in temperatures of below -40 degrees centigrade for more than 30 days.  When the three (Pen Hadow, Ann Daniels and Martin Hartley) leave messages on the TVM – a machine that records the messages they phone into London HQ – their voices often sound slurred and they occasionally muddle their words.

Extreme cold affects the senses and everyday skills we usually take for granted, like speaking. According to CAS medical adviser Doc Martin, the team are constantly battling chronic hypothermia, which was to be expected.  (Pen Hadow has described it as an ‘occupational hazard’).

“Chronic hypothermia affects people who are under-nourished, physically and mentally tired and not sleeping well”, says Doc.  “You can see the connection between vulnerable elderly people and the physical and mental condition that Pen, Ann and Martin are in”.

Weather

sleet-35°C

Perhaps they are preparing to come home?  They are 15 km further from the pole today (722.28 km) than they were yesterday (707.83 km) and according to satellite data, temperatures have been running below normal for the last two and a half months.
And from the NSIDC web site today – It was a warm winter in the Arctic.  No doubt the Catlin crew will be relieved to hear that.

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217 Responses to Catlin Crew Officially Has Hypothermia (and Frostbite)

  1. Rebar says:

    Oddly enough I guess we can expect “global warming” to cause more Urban Hypothermia as cap and trade schemes raise the cost of life saving heat.

  2. Edward says:

    Perhaps they would like to postpone their trip for a 100 years until things warm up there a bit!

  3. Keith says:

    And Martin, the photographer, is having fantasies of real food in warm environments. I hope they make his fantasies a reality and get them out of there before they have to play Donner party in the snow and ice. They are hunting for a suitable landing strip for resupply.

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Croissants_in_Paris

  4. JimB says:

    I think I’m sticking with my Earth Day prediction for extraction of the team…

    Hope that’s not too late.

    JimB

  5. Malcolm says:

    They have another 63 days to make it to the North Pole. That means that they have to travel twice their current average distance to meet their target.

    Can’t be much fun collecting ice thickness data now that NSIDC have released their satellite data from the comfort of government offices.

  6. Randall says:

    These three are explorers is the extreme. It’s clear that they are sacrificing for their beliefs but I’m saddened that their belief may be misplaced and their suffering is foolish. Their failure would be a blow to the AGW movement.

  7. ClimateFanBoy says:

    This spectacle needs to end and those people need to be taken out of the cold and back home to their families.

  8. hotrod says:

    I hope their team can be safely extracted before they have any serious problems due to their chronic hypothermia. Having been in a similar situation during a -30 winter camp out where my pride out ranked my common sense I know how easily that sort of situation can sneak up on you over time. You try to “tough it out”, but over time it wears you down and at some point it becomes a quickly decaying spiral that requires outside assistance to avoid a physiological crash.

    Forget the mission guys and get warmed up, fueled up and rested, where you can think properly to evaluate what to do next with a clear head.

    Larry

  9. tallbloke says:

    Give them some hot soup and bring them home.

  10. Steven Hill says:

    Impossible, the ice is melting and will be gone soon

    Arctic will be ice-free within a decade
    The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in less than a decade, scientists have warned, as the latest figures show the thickness of the ice cap has shrunk to a record low.

  11. Arn Riewe says:

    The reported progress of the expedition dropped by 23 KM from yesterdays and the prior days report. I think they have been estimating distance and performed a correction with some better data. One curiosity for me is how they are getting enough power from batteries at -35C. You would think that the cold would have a terrible drain on battery power. It seems like they would require a lot to operate the sledges and communications equipment.

  12. Squidly says:

    Time to get them home while they still can!

  13. Alan Chappell says:

    Having driven from Germany to Ukraine then Russia and Siberia over this Xmas and new year I cannot understand the problem, I was in -30c to- 40c for 2 weeks, admittedly in a heated cab, but I was in the company of 2 Siberians that had me dressed in furs and more furs, the problem with all other clothing I was told that it does not breath like fur, and that is the problem, as the humidity freezes and then you have big big problems
    Anybody traveling on foot in those temp. deserves all that nature can provide, if they were just a tiny little bit scientific minded they would not be there.

  14. Barry Foster says:

    Pathetic and ridiculous. They are proving nothing, adding nothing to science, and carrying out a worthless and pointless exercise. It doesn’t seem worth dying for. Stupidity knows no bounds.

  15. Ross says:

    Sorry to be so acerbic but – ya’ play with fire, ya’ get burnt.

    Actually I hope these people get out of there now, while they still can.

  16. I noticed they are not publishing their location today. I assume going back 15KM overnight has caused this.

    Just think how cold it would be if there wasnt any global warming……

  17. JustMe says:

    Someone needs to go get these people before they start to die.

  18. Aron says:

    Today every major news outlet is running the same Arctic melt scare they ran before last summer. They keep comparing the ice to the 1979-2000 average. While some have mentioned the ice cover has grown recently they are forecasting record summer melts and ice free Arctic by 2012 (this date chosen to force through legislation beforehand). They have even said it is the least amount of Arctic ice seen in the last 8000 years! If they want to dating of ice, they really should date all those glaciers that are melting. They’ll find a lot of them didn’t exist in that shape or form over 500 years ago.

    So there’s mention of cooling trends, no mention of sunspot counts, no mention of sea level stabilisation. They are repeating the Orwellian idea that a lie repeated often enough is accepted as the truth.

  19. I think it would be good to hear from Anthony in regard to the NASA press conference yesterday that spoke about the expected increase in Summer Arctic sea ice melt due to thinner ice.

    I dont think NASA, at least these NASA scientists, have ever heard about changing solar activity and its impact on the ice extent.

  20. Barry says:

    I hope none of them die from the cold weather. And, I do hope that their experiences in the cold will make them a tad bit wiser.

  21. Poor people! They are really a new kind of martyrs: The New Green Religion martyrs.

  22. TerryS says:

    GPs adopted the term after seeing an increase, during winter, of elderly patients who have switched off their heating, fearful of the cost, and become ill as a result because of the cold.

    People don’t become ill as a result of the cold. It’s due to the negative warmth.

  23. Steven Goddard says:

    I’m not sure how they might fend off a Polar Bear in a hypothermic state and without a high powered rifle. Not a sensible situation.

  24. hotrod says:

    Keith (08:08:22) :

    And Martin, the photographer, is having fantasies of real food in warm environments.

    That is another worrisome sign, that sort of thing happens to marathon runners just before they hit the wall at 18 miles as their body runs out of fuel. It is the bodies way of telling you the gas gauge is on empty.

    Larry

  25. GeoS says:

    I expect they’re trying to survive on a modern “healthy” diet with no animal fat. Try taking advice from the Inuits. Bet they didn’t take the traditional pemmican before the modern nutritionists ruined the stuff.

  26. Kipper says:

    This story reminds me of something covered in Bjorn Lomborg’s book “Cool It”.
    http://www.amazon.com/Cool-Skeptical-Environmentalists-Global-Warming/dp/0307266923
    In it, Mr. Lomborg cites statistics showing that many more multiples of deaths occur annually world-wide as a direct result of COLD vs. the few that occur from heat, heat related illnesses, or warming climate in general. This reinforces his overall theme: what exactly are the “climate change” alarmists hoping to fix? There MANY more worldwide “macro” problems that can actually be addressed in real time with the world’s money and effort (diseases, famine, energy, etc) than a vain attempt to “correct” the entire world’s climate!

  27. Fred from Canuckistan . . . says:

    . . . but they have the cutest, most photogenic snow suits . . . they look so hip on TV.

    Too bad they don’t keep their holier-than-thou butts warm enough to prevent frostbite.

    -40 isn’t all that cold. As someone who has done DEW Line time and lived in the Arctic for 4 years, -40 barely slowed anyone, who was prepared, down. Out hunting or fishing, running around on the skidoo, -40 was the norm and easily handled.

    Now -55 in Hall Beach loading a belly bay in 737 . . . now that’s cold.

  28. Rachelle Young says:

    First, in their cold, muddled state of mind I hope they don’t shoot any polar bears that are stalking them for lunch. Polar bears are said to be endangered, but we have plenty of people.

    Second, these AGW Paris Hiltons are doing the publicity equivalent of wearing a short skirt with no underwear. These people are after headlines, not science.

    I have known better people who have died doing what they had to do just to take care of their families. I find it impossible to care what happens to these deluded clowns.

  29. Paddy says:

    How is Arctic ice data averages between 1979 and 2000 a valid metric for current conditions? I suspect that the addition of 2001 through 2008 data would disclose the absurdity of the doom and gloom rants coming from AGWers. Am I wrong? If so, please explain why.

  30. Steve M. says:

    Edward (08:04:41) :

    Perhaps they would like to postpone their trip for a 100 years until things warm up there a bit!

    By then they can just boat up there…”ice free” should make that easy /sarc

  31. peter vd berg says:

    makes me think of the idiots who climb the Himalayas and pester you with ‘dramatic’ footage of their suffering. Sorry but i find this behavior irresponsible and sure to cost society lots of cash for rescue operations and to repair the damage better spend healing people with diseases didn’t inflict on themselves.

  32. Arn Riewe says:

    From the NSIDC website 4/6/09:

    “Arctic sea ice extent has begun its seasonal decline towards the September minimum. Ice extent through the winter was similar to that of recent years, but lower than the 1979 to 2000 average. More importantly, the melt season has begun with a substantial amount of thin first-year ice, which is vulnerable to summer melt.”

    Is this deja vu all over again?

    From the NSIDC website 4/7/08:

    “Despite strong growth of new ice over the winter, sea ice is still in a general state of decline. The ice that grew over the past winter is relatively thin, first-year ice that is susceptible to melting away during the summer.”

    I think only the Goreacle roots more ice to melt than does NSIDC. Have you ever noticed their PR is always stated in the negative? “It’s the fifth lowest since…” rather that “It’s the third highest since…” It’s clear to me that the infomation gatekeeper here is cozying up to the AGW money train.

  33. Sean Houlihane says:

    Very few people commenting on this thread seem to have any concept of what they are discussing. Plenty of people put themselves into dangerous situations regularly without attracting this sort of ridicule – how is this different from sailing round the world single-handed? Get out there and live a bit :)

  34. James says:

    The obvious may have already been pointed out but why did they not go by car like Top Gear’s Polar Expedition a la Clarkson and co? They only took a few days sipping gin and tonics along the way in a Toyota Hilux pick-up.

    If you have not yet seen it, it is a seminal – and hilarious – piece of film making.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4954020154349675922

  35. Richard deSousa says:

    Their resupply plane is now two days overdue because of the brutal cold weather. If the Catlin trekkers haven’t learned the truth about the actual conditions of the Arctic by now they have to be suffering from hypothermia hallucinations.

  36. Shallow Climate says:

    Maybe this is piling on–well, here we go anyway: In addition to the other points mentioned in these posts about the nonscientific aspects of this so-called science, I will contribute (a la Karl Popper) that the Catlin team is not doing science also because it is impossible to reproduce any of their (alleged) findings. They are merely taking measurements, not doing science. If they actually wanted to do science, they would, at the very least, have to take with them one or two (or more) teams to reproduce independently any of their findings. Actually, I feel sad about the whole business. Quixotic in a way, perhaps.

  37. Michael D Smith says:

    They’ll be glad to see the ice start melting now that it’s only -35C today. That should speed things right along.

  38. tarpon says:

    One thing people fail to grasp, when it gets hot, you sweat. When it gets cold you die. Humans like warm, not so much cold.

    We are back down in the 40-50-s for the next few days.

    It’s also interesting that probably the cold weather gear they have is made from that evil oil. Not enough polar bears and seals to go around.

  39. Squidly says:

    JustMe (08:37:21) :

    Someone needs to go get these people before they start to die.

    I think they have already started to die, they need to extract these people before they finish dying!

  40. John H.- 55 says:

    They may be D.O.A.

    Defrosted On Arrival…. home.

  41. Jorge Pereira says:

    Get them out of there before something terrible hapens!

  42. I am sitting at my desk here in the wilderness of Alaska where we have lived for 30 years. No one for hundreds of miles around us. I skied from the front door yesterday and went 10 miles up our valley breaking through at least two feet of snow. Seems late to have this much snow and ice. I guess we caused GW with our wood fires this winter and caused more precip and colder temps. It went to minus 65F here this winter for three weeks along with the normal minus 40’s and 30’s. We are all fine. I notice the pictures of this group with their zippers down, their fur ruffs back and wonder at their ignorance of arctic living. There are proper ways to survive and there are proper ways to do science. I think they failed at both.

  43. sylvain says:

    Another thing that can be blamed on AGW :

    Stupidity

  44. John W. says:

    I have zero sympathy for people killed or injured in the voluntary service of a lie.

    Anyone heard where the bear is?

  45. I.P says:

    Lunch time for some polar bears.

  46. What a little frost bite!
    Stop the expedition.
    That‘s only stop cowards, not true belivers.
    Anyway, the artic ice is thining, the news say so.

    This Monty Python video, “Star War” style is perfecty dedicated to their brave endevor.
    http://www.natelki.net/video/4134/monty-python—black-knight-star-wars

  47. Retired Engineer says:

    When you stay that cold for that long, you make bad decisions. (BTDT) When you make bad decisions, you have bad experiences. (BTDT as well) They need to get out. While they still can.

  48. Cassandra King says:

    The chap in the photo has very swollen lips, if he got cold sores they would be very painfull!

    On a more serious note, I hope they come back safe and a lot wiser for their silly adventure.

  49. Richard Heg says:

    OT Guess these “experts” dont read this blog much.
    “Nine of 11 experts, who were among authors of the final summary by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 (IPCC), also said the evidence that mankind was to blame for climate change had grown stronger in the past two years.”
    http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre5363mv-us-climate-change/

  50. Cathy says:

    I’ll bet I’m not the first to see the irony in a global warming alarmist making this statement:

    “. . . elderly patients who have switched off their heating, fearful of the cost . . ”

    The goal of the enviro-whacko, global warming scammers is to increase the price of fuel so that we human viruses use less and therefore pump less CO2 into the environment.

    YET, we are to feel compassion for those morons who may die due to self-inflicted hypothermia to drum up support for their pet theory which if they succeed would cause more elderly to suffer?

    Psssssst: Catlin Crew. Warm is good. Doncha think?

  51. Mike Ryan says:

    In an earlier comment on this expedition someone provided email links to the sponsors and suggested we write to them. I emailed all the addresses containing the letters UK, asking the sponsors to bring the three home before any of them suffered permament damge to their health. So far I have not had a reply from any of them.

  52. Jack Green says:

    NASA is coming up with all of these alarmists studies rushed out to justify their budgets under the Obama knife. Did you see what they did to Defense Spending?

  53. M White says:

    I’m assuming there’s something wrong with the eqipment but note Pen Hadows core temperature. It’s a bit low, below 35 centigrade for the past few days

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

    Typical just as I write this it starts to increase

  54. Ex-Pat Alfie says:

    The Caplin Crew clearly ilustrate the difference between raw courage and blind stupidity.

  55. Cathy says:

    I nominate KEITH’S quote for ‘Quote of The Week’.

    Struck the right tone. Sober compassion with a soupcon of macabre humor.

    (Well. “I” thought it was funny ;-D )

    ” I hope they make his fantasies a reality and get them out of there before they have to play Donner party in the snow and ice. “

  56. Leon Brozyna says:

    And if someone should die before they get pulled out, who’s going to accept responsibility for the tragedy? The WWF? Prince Charles?

    Rhetorical question.

    It’s a mission, a crusade if you will, in support of a belief system. Should anyone die they will be praised for the heroism of their actions in the quest for ‘The Truth.’

    Sad.

  57. Steve in SC says:

    They are idiots pure and simple.
    Perhaps they will reap the benefits of their folly.
    My sympathies are extremely limited.

  58. jack mosevich says:

    Steve: I would not expect polar bears in their location since there do not appear to be seals nor open water. I wonder about polar bear ranges-anyone know?

  59. Steven Goddard says:

    Sean,

    Martin blogged that he can think of a thousand things he would rather be doing.

    That’s living?

  60. jeez says:

    Everyone on this thread.

    These people have modern equipment and I believe you are all falling for hyperbole and exaggerated pathos.

    We live in a generation where ideas are not communicated via objective reports, but with DRAMA!.

    Except for the danger of polar bears, (and I don’t know about the risk level on this one) these guys are fine and just whining a lot about their hardships.

    Real explorers do not whine and complain.

    This is a media circus.

    This is for show.

    These people are suffering for our sins.

    We must view them as saints.

    It is ordained.

  61. Steven Goddard says:

    jeez,

    I’ve been backpacking in -30C weather and can guarantee that these people are not whining.

    More like “keeping a stiff upper lip” in the face of sever hardship. A long tradition for Brits, and one that has been nearly lost. I admire their courage.

  62. NoAstronomer says:

    The mere fact that anyone could even imagine that these people are looking for evidence of global warming while suffering from hypothermia and frostbite should be proof that the apocalypse is just moments away.

    Also, Squidly (“I think they have already started to die, they need to extract these people before they finish dying!”) beat me to it.

  63. hareynolds says:

    This is indeed a Crusade, in the very old, Christian sense.
    The North Pole is the new Jerusalem, and the Warriors in the AGW Crusade have, like their forebearers, come ill equipped, dragging children.

    Like the originals. this Crusade will end very badly.

    The original Crusaders at least managed to leave behind the recessive allele for blue eyes. These poor sots will leave no trace.

  64. Pierre Gosselin says:

    I’d like to know how much this expedition is going to cost, how big a carbon footprint it’s going leave behind and the actual value of the data they are collecting.

    I have a feeling the cost-performance ratio here will be astronomical. Zero bang for the dollar.
    Ohhh but we are now living in Obama times! So who cares what it costs!

  65. Pierre Gosselin says:

    The expedition could perhaps yield some good data and information concerning extreme cold and hypothermia for medical purposes I suppose.

  66. ralph ellis says:

    An old Russian proverb says:

    There is no such thing as cold weather, just poor clothing.

  67. Pierre Gosselin says:

    You know they’re in trouble when they start speaking like Barney Frank.

  68. If some of these guys dies, I am sure his or her death would be utilized by “The Prophet” himself for his cause.

  69. Dan Lee says:

    I partly agree with jeez. Partly. They’re still in a bad environment with diminished alertness and concentration levels. Things can change from melodrama to genuine tragedy in a heartbeat in that environment, and I think that’s what most here are concerned about.

  70. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Pen Hadow’s core temp is just under 34°C right now – no global warming there. That’s in moderate hyperthermia range. He ought to think about jumping in the sack with his warmer companions.

  71. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Sorry about peppering with comments, but why didn’t they do this with snowmobiles or even dog sleds?
    Seems to me they would have been far more productive that way.
    Or is this just a big PR stunt?

  72. Gary Plyler says:

    I don’t get it. Why didn’t they start on the other side of the pole and let the drifting icecap move them closer to the pole every day, instead of farther from the pole.
    Don’t these “scientists” know the prevailing direction of motion for the ice?
    Oh, thats right, this is a publicity stunt, not real science. In real science you (1) formulate a hypothesis based on known Laws, theories, and DATA, (2) develop a plan to obtain additional raw measurable data, and (3) determine from the new data whether the formulated hypothesis is correct, incorrect, or needs modification.
    All the AGW stuff is hypotheses stacked on hypotheses stacked on hypotheses.
    Get these fools out of the arctic before their lives are lost.

  73. Shallow Climate says:

    Is there anyone else out there for whom this recalls John Krakauer’s “Into Thin Air”? It all sounds to me like being in the “death zone” above 8,000 meters. The same distorted thinking, etc. I agree with those who are saying that someone needs to take some responsibility here and go and get them out–they are not able to think clearly in this state.

  74. jeez says:

    Ok. Given their position and route, the polar bear risk looks extremely low. Back to my original assessment.

  75. Steven Goddard says:

    Pictures of polar bears right at the north pole:

    http://www.komar.org/faq/churchill_polar_bear_tours/north-pole-polar-bears/

  76. jeez says:

    I’ll stand corrected on that one. The polar bear threat is real and I have no idea what these guys would do during an encounter, hypothermia or 100% fit. They have no vehicle to hide behind (about the only non-weapon defense that exists).

  77. Phil. says:

    Arn Riewe (08:28:58) :
    The reported progress of the expedition dropped by 23 KM from yesterdays and the prior days report. I think they have been estimating distance and performed a correction with some better data.

    Actually they’re checking out the resupply airstip so that quite likely has taken them off course.

    One curiosity for me is how they are getting enough power from batteries at -35C. You would think that the cold would have a terrible drain on battery power. It seems like they would require a lot to operate the sledges and communications equipment.

    Checkout their website, it’s explained there.

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Perran_on_Power_Supplies_for_the_expedition

  78. Bill Illis says:

    The biotelemetry charts on the Catlin site are saved from a previous date or are just examples. They always start with and cycle through the same numbers so it is not live.

    Ann said in one interview that they have to take a gun along for the polar bears so I believe they did. We made a trip once to the middle of nowhere and and stupidly didn’t bring a gun with us. The end result would make the most amazing beer commercial ever.

  79. Cathy says:

    The competition is tightening.

    Hareynolds and Pierre Gosselin are contenders along with Keith for Quote of the Week.

    Hareynolds:
    “The original Crusaders at least managed to leave behind the recessive allele for blue eyes. These poor sots will leave no trace.”

    Pierre Gosselin:
    “You know they’re in trouble when they start speaking like Barney Frank.”

    It seems humor always manages to bob along in the wake of tragedy. I guess it helps keep us afloat.

  80. Allen63 says:

    I feel for the Catlin team. Has to be totally miserable and precariously unsafe. At this point, I’d be heading home — I will not think less of them if they do.

  81. Steven Goddard says:

    http://www.polarbearhunting.net/

    The following list is recommended and mandatory:

    Down parka with fur trimmed hood and down wind pants
    Warm mittens, large enough for inner gloves, heavy woolen shooting gloves
    Face mask and tinted snowmobile goggles (to avoid frostbite and snow blindness)
    Fur hat with flaps that tie down around ears and back of neck. I use mine for sleeping also
    The warmest boots made by Cabellas, Timberline or Northern Outfitters. Boots designed for extreme cold with insulated liners. EXTRA LINERS!
    Heavy sweater or ski-jacket for around camp
    Camp boots, easy to put on and pull off, for around camp
    Pure wool or wool/polypropylene long-handle underwear
    4 or 5 pairs heavy wool socks, 4-5 pairs thinner wool socks
    Pair heavy wool pants and 2 heavy wool shirts
    A down-filled sleeping bag rated for –40F and set of wool, long underwear for sleeping
    Sharp knife and sharpening steel
    High-quality binoculars
    Soft-padded gun case for the sled
    High-powered rifle with 30-40 rounds. (300 magnum with 220 grain bullets recommended)

  82. Librarygryffon says:

    In response to Kipper, I suspect most of the AGW types are quite happy to have folks die because they can’t afford to keep warm. It seems to be a common belief in the environmental movement that more of us need to die of to save the planet. I’ve seen some evil university prof type going on to agreeing audiences about how the planet needs to rid itself of at least 90% of the nasty humans infesting it.

    This way we kill off the elderly (and presumabley less productive) members of society, and save our tax dollars that the gov’t would otherwise have to spend on their health care.

    It’s a twofer! /sarc

  83. Librarygryffon says:

    “die of” = “die off” PIMF

  84. Robin Flockton says:

    Martyrs to the cause of AGW. I wonder what position the Vatican takes on AGW? Could canonisation be in their futures!

  85. tty says:

    I don’t understand this. Doesn’t anybody remember how to dress and feed and travel in the Arctic any longer? These people dream about proper hot food. So what? Amundsen’s party actually gained weight on their expedition to the south pole in 1912. Isn’t pemmican and seal meat available any longer? The Primus corporation is still making the same type of kerosene cooker Amundsen used and it still works perfectly in extreme cold (I’ve tried it many times).

  86. tty: “The Primus corporation is still making the same type of kerosene cooker Amundsen used “
    Surely they decided not to use fossil fuels and took with them some of those Al the magnificent’ s windmills..

  87. apb says:

    Sorry to be harsh, but ‘stupid’ is all over these people like white on rice.

    It’s a pain to see the intellectual contortions in trying to explain thinning ice caught between -2C water and -40C air. So far their entire site’s nothing but a multimedia crap warehouse. Where are the charts scientific data?

    Here’s a better chance for these pinheads to redeem themselves on the question of thinning ice: when I leave filled ice cube trays in my freezer for a month, where did the ice disappear to? I guarantee my fridge hasn’t been powered off…

  88. Oh, I see ..perhaps somebody installed up there an automated defrost system. Who knows, perhaps they are trying it using microwaves from HAARP!

  89. Flanagan says:

    Nevertheless, the arctic has had a very “hot” winter and the average sea ice age has declined, again:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  90. AEGeneral says:

    hareynolds (11:00:26) :

    The North Pole is the new Jerusalem, and the Warriors in the AGW Crusade have, like their forebearers, come ill equipped, dragging children.

    I think it’s more synonymous with 40 years wandering in the desert, searching for the Promised Land.

    By Friday, they will have lost their faith & started sacrificing snowballs in front of a James Inhofe bobble-head.

  91. Steve Brown says:

    I own some shares in Catlin. I e-mailed them just now, for the second time, suggesting they call a halt.

    I got no reply the first time, not hopeful this time, but will post anything interesting they have to say.

  92. Just Want Truth... says:

    “Arn Riewe (09:08:04) :

    From the NSIDC website 4/6/09:

    Is this deja vu all over again?

    From the NSIDC website 4/7/08: ”

    I agree Arn. I will be watching Arctic ice this summer like I did last year. I’m pretty sure I’ll be seeing the same things said about every little move in the ice that I saw last summer. There will be high hopes in the posts made by AGW commenters that 2009 will surpass 2008–just like there was last year that 2008 would surpass 2007.

    But the sun, the PDO, and a long winter is working against them. Their hopes are in that infamous ‘death spiral’.

    The earth just will not do what they want it to do.

  93. realitycheck says:

    I really wish these poor deluded fellow human beings the very best. However, what a complete waste of money, time and resources. Hopefully they will not waste their lives as well in the name of a threat which does not exist…

    Will they look at their situation objectively and get out now before its too late? I doubt it, their objectivity may be gone completely at this point. Will the BBC or others pull them out anyway? I also doubt it – a terrible story of human hardship and pseudo-martyrdom in the name of “The Environment” sells newspapers after all.

    /cynicism off

  94. apb says:

    the arctic has had a very “hot” winter and the average sea ice age has declined, again

    Strange – a quick glance at the Arctic Sea Ice Extent chart shows 2009 extents >2007 extents across the range (with a couple of brief matches…)

    Mystery!

  95. B Kerr says:

    GeoS (08:56:37) :

    I expect they’re trying to survive on a modern “healthy” diet with no animal fat.

    Well GeoS this might just answer your question.

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery_video.aspx?id=58

    ” Martin’s Snack of choice…
    Calories vs Surface Area vs Taste vs Weight. Polar snacking has a number of variables when it comes to correct decision making. “

  96. Just Want Truth... says:

    “tty (11:51:09) : I don’t understand this. Doesn’t anybody remember how to dress and feed and travel in the Arctic any longer?”

    I get the impression that AGW has an element of living above reality in it. AGW is already doing it’s best to block out the real science of climate. So it follows that these 3 have suspended reality to an extent too. The ‘old way’ is wrong in AGW eyes. They seem to feel they have a higher, ‘progressive’, truth. But reality is biting them now.

    Reality bites!

  97. Tom in South Jersey says:

    Why didn’t they just kayak up to the North Pole like those chaps last summer and then wait for the ice to come to them??

  98. Paul says:

    I don’t understand the need to measure ice thickness since the arctic is supposed to be ice free any day now. When it all melts in 5 years, 10 years, 30 years….when is it supposed to happen now??? Anyway, wait until it all melts and the thickness is 0 feet. A simple solution, no frostbite and they can wear their specialized arctic Speedo’s to measure.

  99. Just Want Truth... says:

    tallbloke is right, some hot soup. Also some fresh, hot bread with plenty of melted butter because I’m sure their bodies are begging for fat. There is a reason Eskimos ate whale blubber.

  100. MA says:

    In one post in the catlin blog someone say that there is a high noise from the stove or heater (?) in the tent. I’m no camper and have not idea if this is possible, but I remember these have a noise ;) :

    http://wiki.80-90.co.uk/images/Eberspacher-install-caravelle-under-seat.jpg

    If they have that equipment they should have a lot warmer in the tent than outside. But that would be a lot of additional weight. Also Earth Hour will not compensate for the evil life gas, carbon dioxide, from the Eberspacher… ;)

  101. Joe Miner says:

    Anyone know how the AGW faithful handle their dead? I assume cremation is a sin.

  102. John F. Hultquist says:

    And this from Dr. “no ice” Meier “It could be several hundred thousand years ago the last time we were ice free, it was certainly seven to eight hundred years since we have had close to conditions like we have now,”

    He is full of hot air. 1987 and 1817 are examples that prove this man needs to brush up on his climate history. See “The Top of the World: Is the North Pole Turning to Water?” by John L. Daly, at:
    http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm

  103. hotrod says:

    GeoS (08:56:37) :

    I expect they’re trying to survive on a modern “healthy” diet with no animal fat.

    In those temperatures fat is life. I know guys that eat butter sticks like a candy bar in that sort of conditions.

    Larry

  104. Kipper says:

    I guess we can all “make stats say what we want them to say”…still…
    its difficult for the AGW crowd to argue with its own stats: global sea ice is above the 30 year average…
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

    In my opinion, it is disingenuous if not downright dishonest when the Catlin website mentions “signs of climate change in the Antartic” and “Scientists say that means it (new arctic ice) will not last the summer melt”.

    If Gore was smarter, he stick with the “100 year” ice free arctic predictors…NO ONE will remember THAT prediction 100 years from now. How many recent conversations have YOU had about the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 50 Million? Attention spans and memories are short!

  105. AnonyMoose says:

    It’s time for the kayaker to declare victory and bring them back to the chef.

  106. Stephen Brown says:

    Do hush, everyone.

    Stand in silent awe as the about-to-be-sanctified martys plod to their doom. Every religion demands those who have sacrificed themselves for the CAUSE. This is what we are now witnessing. Lord Gore will praise them to the ever-warming skies for their futile endeavours.

    Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, if only these martyrs has waited until 2037 they might have swum to their intended target in tropic warmth. See the link.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/06/arctic-sea-ice-warning

  107. Steve says:

    Something very odd going on with that Catlin site. The post on hypothermia has been taken down and replaced with a yarn about how the team’s drilling is consistent with ice getting thinner/melt over the summer.

    Beyond farce now

    “Meanwhile NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have released their latest sea ice data for the Arctic, showing that the decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice cover is continuing. The new evidence, from satellite observations, also shows that the ice cap is thinning.
    Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.
    “The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”…more ‘
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/

  108. David says:

    How about easing up on these people. They are trying something most of us would never think of. The fact that they are in distress seems to please a lot of people here. How about just hoping that they end up safe and in good health?

  109. jeez says:

    Why?

  110. ralph ellis says:

    >>I expect they’re trying to survive on a modern “healthy” diet with
    >>no animal fat.

    When I was working in Russia I was presented with a great slab of smoked fat and potatoes as the main course. Not very tasty, but that’s what you need to eat in that climate. A degree of chubbiness is not a health problem, but an asset.

    .

  111. Aron says:

    The Top Gear crew make this expedition not only look amateur but also primitive and foolish. All they needed was the same vehicle with the radar equipment fitted to it.

  112. karl heuer says:

    Top Gear Polar

    That film is priceless.

  113. Daniel says:

    Steve,
    Nothing strange is happening with the site. When they update their blog with a new post, the post appears on the front page. The hypothermia post is on the blog: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/opsroom

  114. David (12:57:13) :
    Indeed, by taking those people of the ice now and prevent any further (permanent) damage to their healths.

  115. LarryD says:

    Courage in the service of stupidity is no virtue.

    These people need to come home now!

  116. twawki says:

    David (12:57:13) :

    How about easing up on these people. They are trying something most of us would never think of. The fact that they are in distress seems to please a lot of people here. How about just hoping that they end up safe and in good health?

    Conversely how about acknowledging that its the cold that kills, and these people are pushing a propoganda that would see the world unprepared for a significant cold event which could result in the deaths of millions. Yes these explorers are sadly at risk and sadly misinformed but their actions are so very wrong.

  117. hotrod says:

    David (12:57:13) :

    How about easing up on these people. They are trying something most of us would never think of. The fact that they are in distress seems to please a lot of people here. How about just hoping that they end up safe and in good health?

    You are right most folks have enough common sense not to try such a foolish effort.

    Their distress does not “please us”, it boggles our mind that they are so ill prepared for their task. Even if it is a foolish endeavor, they should given the money spent on this project at least read a book or two about polar explorers and brushed up on what is common knowledge to folks with experience in those environments.

    If you re-read the posts above, you will find most of us wishing that in spite of their foolish decisions that their base came team will have the intelligence to pull the plug before someone gets permanently disabled by frost bite or suffers a life threatening episode of hypothermia. Folks who do not have experience with operations in high altitude or polar environments generally have not a clue how quickly things can go from uncomfortable to fatal in those environments. If these people go into severe hypothermia the base camp folks will not have time to get a rescue plane to them if there is any problem with weather. The final descent into late stage hypothermia can happen in a matter or an hour or two. In WWII soldiers froze to death in the time it took them to walk from their tent to a place to relieve themselves. The severely hypothermia do things like take their cloths off because they feel hot when the body in an effort to save the toes and fingers sends warm core blood to the limbs. When that happens unless the casualty has a partner who is alert enough to correct the problem they will die in a matter of minutes.

    From what many of us who have had severe cold weather experience are seeing in various clues from their coverage, a competent team leader would have pulled the plug some time ago. My guess is that some of them are very close to the edge and only a very small mistake is necessary to get them in to very big trouble.

    They are trekking against the motion of the ice, so if nothing else, they are running on a tread mill expending much more effort than they should for the progress they are making. In short their mission planning sucked. They seem to be violating several rules for survival in ultra cold environments ( hat discipline, keeping their sleeping gear dry ie no vapor barrier, keeping critical clothing in the sleeping bag so you don’t have to fight to get your frozen boots on in the morning or struggle into a frozen coat, inadequate fat intake to maintain body temperature etc,)

    It is bad enough in a large expedition group but in a team of 3 they have very little reserve if they have a problem.

    Larry

  118. Shawn Whelan says:

    Top gear went to the magnetic North Pole, not the geographic North Pole.

  119. Arn Riewe says:

    The reports that there’s only 10% old ice in the arctic ice strikes me as very odd mathematically. Even with higher melt the last 2 seasons, ice area was around 30% of it’s peak winter area. Unless your melting “old” ice at least as fast as the new ice rate, how do you get down to 10% old ice? Theoretically, if you did, you could get to about 10%, but that would go against the AGW supposition.

    I’d be curious about the methodology of the study that defines what is new and old ice. If anyone has a link to the NASA report and/or data, I’d be interested. Comments from anyone who has looked at this would be appreciated.

  120. Shawn Whelan says:

    The frostbite sounds far fetched. It is very painful when the body parts thaw and moreso when they cut them off.

    Amundsen could do this like a walk in the park.

  121. All you say about NASA, NOAA, etc. government agencies involved up to the neck in falsifying data , through “massaging”, “smoothing”, etc, to make it agree with Global Warming theories, and so terrorizing people, is it not a prosecutable criminal behaviour? Or if this were the case, not with the intention of scaring people but just profiting of it, is it not also a criminal behaviour?

  122. fred says:

    @Sean Houlihane (09:10:19) :

    “how is this different from sailing round the world single-handed?”

    People who sail around the world single-handed are doing it for the challenge and the adventure. These people are doing it to preach about imagined dangers so that the ENTIRE WORLD will come under the rule of their ideas.

    You may not have noticed, but the “save the world” leftists killed more people than anyone else last century and many of us do not care to become more statistics (no, I’m not saying these people would kill anyone, they would go down like Trotsky, leaving the rest of us to whoever put the axe in their heads).

  123. Mark says:

    I hate to say this but there is something sadistically enjoyable about hearing of these eco-warriors freezing their butts off while trying to help save the world from global warming.

  124. schnurrp says:

    I know this is OT but I’m having a hard time taking this story seriously.


    Forecasters predict 6 Atlantic hurricanes for 2009

    Six hurricanes are expected to churn through the Atlantic this year, a Colorado State University forecast team said Tuesday as it lowered its estimates for the upcoming storm season…

    The University of Colorado team based its projections on the potential for a weak El Nino maritime temperature fluctuation, along with an unusual cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures it observed in recent months…

    Cooler water temperatures tend to make for a less active hurricane season in the region, the researchers noted…

  125. Keith says:

    Something I find funny is that most of the posts on the blog page of the Catlin website are not from Ice Team, but mainly from the Support Team, writing about how bad conditions are for the guys out there risking life in limb. So, the support staff, sitting in warm heated quarters, is providing the information. Meanwhile, Pen, Ann, and Martin are freezing their toes and fingers off, dreaming of buttered croissants and bacon sandwiches because they aren’t getting enough calories to stay warm. Maybe they should be shifting some team member around on the resupply, let Martin go get his toe treated and someone from the support staff stay on as the photographer until the next resupply.

  126. Douglas DC says:

    Get out now!-From personal experience end it now! Ego kills….

  127. pkatt says:

    Wishing ill on these folks is likely to invite bad karma, let alone makin ya look like an @ss. They are explorers. Ok. For whatever seemingly misguided reason they are there, they are there. I wish them a safe journey and a safe homcoming. Perhaps their journey will cause others to start questioning the AGW mantra, or at best cause others to learn to do some research of their own. Once you scratch even a little at the surface the whole thing falls down.

    In the long run, every failed expedition, helps our cause.

  128. BarryW says:

    Flanagan (12:17:35) :

    Declined? Sure, out of the last seven years only 2003 and 2008 are higher and it almost equaled 2008.

     
                  maxice
    2003       14.844063
    2004       14.360313
    2005       14.098906
    2006       13.782344
    2007       13.945625
    2008       14.516875
    2009       14.412813

  129. James P says:

    If they’re drilling through the ice to measure its thickness, why did they take a radar unit on a sledge? And how do their results compare to other measures and/or those taken in previous years?

    Also, I though Pen Hadow was supposed to be a real explorer, so howcome he allowed them all to go with the wrong clothes and sleeping bags? Did he really think it was going to be warm?

    I hope they come to no harm, but my sympathy will be severely limited if they come back and pretend it wasn’t really cold…

  130. James P says:

    Sorry, ‘though’ = ‘thought’. I’m warm enough, but it’s getting late!

  131. John Whitman says:

    Imagine the behind-the-scene AGW pressure on any inpedendent Artic ice measurement that would conflict with any data from this expedition. That would make a blog unto itself.

  132. Phil. says:

    Steven Goddard (11:33:38) :
    Pictures of polar bears right at the north pole:

    http://www.komar.org/faq/churchill_polar_bear_tours/north-pole-polar-bears/

    Well only 280 miles away!

  133. Steven Goddard says:

    British freediver Sarah Campbell blacked out as she attempted to set a new world record by diving to a depth of 100 metres and back in a single breath.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5121939/British-freediver-Sarah-Campbell-blacks-out-attempted-to-break-her-own-world-record.html

  134. John A says:

    I’ve been worried about Pen Hadow’s core temp for quite some time. He’s been on the border of hypothermia for some days.

    Pull them out before they get sacrificed to Gaia…

  135. pft says:

    I see little scientific value in this expedition. However, every movement needs heroes and martyrs, so perhaps the whole point of it is to set the stage with a dramatic rescue, call the survivors heroes, get them on Larry King Live, headline news for a couple of days, and memorialize the victim(s) martyrs. Scientific combatants in the War on Global Warming, or is it Climate Change, oh yes, CO2 caused the stupid cold. Putting their life on the line to save man and Mother Earth. Sob, Sorry, getting a tad emotional, all choked up. Really.

    Anyways, I hope those responsible for this get charged with criminal negligence, especially if tax payer dollars have to be used to fund a rescue effort (normal citizens get charged by government to be evacuated from foreign countries by the way).

  136. WeatherMan says:

    Pen Hadows’ core temperature is now 33.4C. According to wikipedia, he is now in stage two of hypothermia:

    Body temperature drops by 2-4°C (3.8-7.6°F) below normal temperature (33-35°C or 91-94.8°F). Shivering becomes more violent. Muscle mis-coordination becomes apparent. Movements are slow and labored, accompanied by a stumbling pace and mild confusion, although the victim may appear alert. Surface blood vessels contract further as the body focuses its remaining resources on keeping the vital organs warm. The victim becomes pale. Lips, ears, fingers and toes may become blue.

  137. Robert Wood says:

    These people expected to be warm in the Arctic winter????

    Cold-bloodilly, I say, let them live or die; it’s their choice, I don’t care for these worthless nitwits. They are fools; allow Darwin his due.

  138. Robert Wood says:

    Mark @13:49:36

    I hate to say this but there is something sadistically enjoyable about hearing of these eco-warriors freezing their butts off while trying to help save the world from global warming.

    …and the once-mighty Nordvaark attacked the smothering glacier with his ice-pick again, and again, and again .. again. He stopped, exhausted of warm breath, panting in the dry air, expelling CO2 as if it was the staff of life leaving his very being,

    In his frozen delusion, he thought “must stop global warming.. must… warm .., must stop global warming .. must warm .. must .. warm ..must .. must …….”

    To be continued….

  139. Robert Wood says:

    …as if it were the …

    sorry, missed the subjunctive.

  140. swampie says:

    *shrug* IMO, it’s just a giant publicity stunt. I’m sure that they have to make the blog posts as exciting as possible, for who would be waiting breathlessly to read things like “Day 1: Really cold. Walked. Slept. Day 2: Really really cold. Walked. Slept. Day 37: Even more cold. Walked. Slept.” Plus, the hint of valiantly overcoming danger by going 2 days without food while waiting for the resupply plane should be good for a well-paid lecture circuit.

    /So call me cynical.

  141. Graeme Rodaughan says:

    Randall (08:18:55) :

    These three are explorers is the extreme. It’s clear that they are sacrificing for their beliefs but I’m saddened that their belief may be misplaced and their suffering is foolish. Their failure would be a blow to the AGW movement.

    How can they fail – what are the failure criteria?

    If they die from freezing – it will be a sign of catastrophic Climate Chaos caused by man made emissions of CO2.

    If they get eaten by Polar Bears – It will be because man made emissions of CO2 have disrupted the bears food supply.

    If they get back alive – they will be feted as heroes and paraded on the talk shows to say how man made emissions of CO2 are thinning the Arctic Ice.

    etc… etc…

  142. Gerald Machnee says:

    As Shawn said above, Top Gear went to the magnetic north pole which is only about 400 miles northwest of Resolute (not even as far as Isachsen, the first refuel point for Borek Air. If they did what they said, part of the trip was over land west of Resolute. They were about as far from the real north pole as the Catlin expedition is now.

  143. Pragmatic says:

    geoff pohanka (08:35:12) :

    “I noticed they are not publishing their location today. I assume going back 15KM overnight has caused this.”

    The desperate sadness here is, given the “never-confess” attitude of die-hard alarmists, they would rather freeze to death than look the cold hard world in the eye and say, “We were wrong.”

  144. maz2 says:

    Will Prince Charles win the pennant for the turtle?
    …-

    “Polar explorers setting off to measure the thickness of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice attended a farewell reception at Clarence House held by HRH The Prince of Wales.

    The Prince, who is Patron of the Catlin Arctic Survey, presented Pen Hadow, Ann Daniels and Martin Hartley with a specially-commissioned pennant to carry to the North Geographic Pole.”
    http://princescharities.org/blog/2009/2/11/catlin-arctic-survey-join-forces-business-community
    …-

    Full name
    Charles Philip Arthur George
    Detail
    Titles and styles
    HRH The Prince of Wales/Duke of Rothesay
    HRH The Duke of Cornwall
    HRH Prince Charles of Edinburgh (wiki)
    …-

    “Prince Charles Names Baby Giant Tortoise After His Son – iCelebZ.com
    18 Mar 2009 … Britain’s Prince Charles is worried he will be in “terrible trouble” with … While at the center, the royal couple met 80-year-old turtle …
    http://www.icelebz.com/gossips/prince_charles_names_baby_giant_tortoise_after_his_son

  145. Rathtyen says:

    This expedition has a useful scientific purpose.

    The hypothesis is the Arctic is becoming warmer, and these guys are putting it to the test by making a trek geared for benign conditions (for that part of the world). They have pretty much proven the hypothesis to be untrue, or at the very minimum, an overstatement.

    Their problem is they are trying to prove a point they passionately believe in, and to give up now means they will be admitting they were wrong. I recollection it was the leaders of the Fourth Crusade who relied on God to stop the (annual) Nile floods rather than move their camp to higher ground, with pretty unfortunate consequences.

    This is a 21st century equivalent: going in to an inherently dangerous situation under prepared because of a reliance on faith (that Global Warming would make it easier).

    My feeling is God (“God” in the broadest sense, however you wish to define the term, in the traditional sense or as nature itself through non-divine evolution….I’m casting a broad bow here, not trying to start a theological discussion), gave us all the intelligence and capability we have so we can look after ourselves. We are judged on what we do and how we conduct ourselves, not by meaningless subservience and reliance on God. Putting yourself in danger, and relying of something else, God, nature, Gaia or Global Warming to sort out the problem for you (but in truth it’s the people that go in and rescue you), is irresponsible and dangerous to yourself.

    That is quite different from the well prepared group that gets into trouble. Sh*t sometimes happens. But in this case, these people were relying on a belief and were trying to prove that belief by being under-prepared. They were relying on good luck to be fine, rather than having been well prepared and encountering bad fortune.

    A positive is that they have highlighted that Global Warming concerns regarding the Arctic are somewhere in the wrong-to-exaggerated range. But it’s a good bet that’s NOT what they’ll be saying when they get rescued.

  146. gary plyler says:

    Most of you are missing a very important point in Gaby Dean’s blog. Keep in mind that Gaby Dean is the operations manager for the Catlin Crew expedition. In her blog, she starts out with:

    “In disadvantaged inner cities it’s known in medical circles as Urban Hypothermia. GPs adopted the term after seeing an increase, during winter, of elderly patients who have switched off their heating, fearful of the cost, and become ill as a result because of the cold. Chronic, as opposed to acute, hypothermia is the official term.”

    Well, what about the fixed income, retired, and single mothers that will cut back on home heating when “Cap & Tax” is passed in Congress? The prices for energy are certain to increase far more than the rebates to the poor used to silence the poor and increase their support for those wonderful socialists in charge.

  147. Robert Bateman says:

    All day stupid expedition.
    The weather isn’t about to co-operate.
    Next comes bad decisions.
    If you had them in a warm room for a day, they’d snap out of it and realize
    just how close they were coming to thier demise.
    But, they can’t do that with chilled brains and an endless loop of pressing on stuck in their heads.
    When they sit down in utter exhaustion, they will sit down to die.
    This has trajedy written all over it.
    The other end is also stuck in exhilarating expedition, and will not get them out before it’s too late.

  148. Ohioholic says:

    Well, hopefully someone with sense will pull them out on the next supply trip. Nature is not known to lose contests of will power.

  149. Ric Werme says:

    schnurrp (13:51:52) :

    I know this is OT but I’m having a hard time taking this story seriously.

    Forecasters predict 6 Atlantic hurricanes for 2009

    Six hurricanes are expected to churn through the Atlantic this year, a Colorado State University forecast team said Tuesday as it lowered its estimates for the upcoming storm season…

    Oh yeah, it’s time for the Klotzbach/Gray forecast. Don’t read it at breitbart.com, read the full forecast at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ !
    Let’s see. “Average activity for 2009″ – quite a break compared to previous years. Actually quite a break compared to their December forecast reducing their expectation of Net tropical cyclone activity from 135% to 105%.

    Why the reduction? Here: “We expect current weak La Niña conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Niño conditions by this year’s hurricane season. If El Niño conditions develop for this year’s hurricane season, it would tend to increase levels of vertical wind shear and decrease levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. Another reason for our forecast reduction is due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Cooler waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are less conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.”

    Well, that ought lead some more interesting than usual comments about global warming… nope, about the same as previous years.

    They do call out “Figure 7 displays the SST anomaly difference between March 2009 and November 2008. Note the strong anomalous cooling that has occurred across the Main Development Region. Current Tropical North Atlantic index (defined as 5.5-23.5°N, 57.5-15°W) SST anomaly values of approximately -0.4°C are the lowest that have been observed since June-July 1994. This strong anomalous cooling is another reason for the reduction in our Atlantic basin hurricane forecast. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less latent and sensible heat flux for developing tropical cyclones. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear.”

    I guess it’s been a cold winter in the eastern tropical Atlantic too! If this forecast of an average season verifies (note hurricane Andrew was in a very below average season), there may be little coverage in the news.

  150. Graeme Rodaughan says:

    Pragmatic (16:29:32) :

    geoff pohanka (08:35:12) :

    “I noticed they are not publishing their location today. I assume going back 15KM overnight has caused this.”

    The desperate sadness here is, given the “never-confess” attitude of die-hard alarmists, they would rather freeze to death than look the cold hard world in the eye and say, “We were wrong.”

    Some new Oxymorons.

    “Honest Climate Science”
    “Humble Climate Science”

  151. Eve says:

    People dying of cold in this society is not funny and that is exactly what is happening in the UK and Europe with their cap and trade laws. The UK’s percentage of excess cold related deaths rose 7% in 2008, no word yet on how many died this past winter. In Ontario, our provincial government has decided to pass a Green Energy bill which will raise electicity prices and to apply the 8% PST to everything including gas, propane, heating oil, electricity, hair cuts, etc. That will cost me an extra 1,000 a year plus the Green energy bill will add another 300 to 900 a year. I don’t think I can afford to live in this cold climate anymore. I might as well live in a warm banana republic.

  152. philincalifornia says:

    Don’t die Pen. It’s not worth it. If you do, the Guardian, the inbred pseudoscientist Prince, and the BBC will deny and/or cover up that you and your ill-fated expedition ever existed.

    But we won’t, ha ha ha ha

  153. Justin Sane says:

    Just think, on April 25, 2008 (yes 2008) New Scientist predicted the north pole could be ice free by the summer of 2008. I wonder what they were smoking — bunch of lying %$#$*(‘s
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779

  154. John F. Hultquist says:

    Adolfo Giurfa (13:40:14) : question of massaging data
    My thought is that most researchers do the best they can to work with data that is not as nice as they would like it to be. For example, the weather station data frequently mentioned on this site is bad because the administrators have screwed up. A researcher either has to work with the data or throw it out. If the decision is made to use it, then they have to try to make it work. Reasonable people might differ on how to do these things. Try a thought experiment. Say there is a weather station in a small town of 5,000 people and in 100 years it grows to an urban complex of 3,000,000 folks and the station is moved about once every 20 years – how do you fix that?
    On the other hand, it is my belief that anything touched by the UN is corrupted until proven otherwise. Cheerful thought, yes?

  155. philincalifornia says:

    The New Scientist – the Mad Magazine of Pseudoscience.

    It actually always was monumentally crap, way before it reached this level of moronity. Twenty years ago or so, they would headline articles about some dude or other from Sunderland Polytechnic or Huddersfield Grammar School who had invented cold fusion and a vaccine for AIDS, in the same week. In actual fact, they had really just photocopied a paper on the subject and could just about say a few sentences indicating that they barely understood the research. Another trick was to headline the fact that they were clearly on top of a Nobel Prize-winning technology when the total contribution of the English science snobbery- monger was sending a reprint request to the Nobel Prizewinner in question, ha ha ha.

    Just a year or so ago, one of their “reporters” proposed that he could prove the existence of AGW because there were more vineyards in England now than there were in the Medieval Warming Period. I asked him, by e-mail, if he thought that the fact that there were more electric blanket companies now meant that there might actually be cooling. He declined the offer to respond.

  156. John F. Hultquist says:

    Whether or not this trip to the NP is the Catlin swan song or not, country singing star Tim Mcgraw already has the title: “Nothin’ To Die For”

  157. April E. Coggins says:

    I hate the part of myself that looks forward to the demise of stupidity.

  158. Les Francis says:

    If these PR people die of cold this will be the worst outcome. Their sponsors may even be sued for sponsoring an under equipped expedition.

    If they attacked by Polar bears than the publicity will be immense.
    If they need to be rescued the publicity will be immense.
    If they finish their expedition the “scientific” value will be lost in the publicity.
    The publicity will be immense.
    The speaking circuit will be lucrative.
    The talk shows will be filled with torrid tales.
    The scientific data will be lost to a cold memory card (requiring another expedition next year)

  159. hengav says:

    They took down the ice thickness site. They took down the daily progress site. They haven’t had the “latest from the ice” in days. No correlation of the pagillion sonar readings to the 48 record drill holes in one day. Just that their drill holes are 1.5 to 2m deep.

    JEEEZ!

    Not to worry folks, the sea of Oshkosk is the one true anomaly according to the cryosphere data, accounting for the majority of the sea ice loss. AND it isn’t even IN the arctic…

  160. WakeUpMaggy says:

    Can’t some Brit call Adult Protective Services and get them out of there before they damage themselves forever or die? Hypothermia causes loss of judgment in the same way scuba diving narcosis does. Let’s put an end to this.

  161. WakeUpMaggy says:

    I also know warm little New Zealand reports 1400 “excess deaths” every winter from cold, (elderly, ill, and poor) yet the newspapers run guilt inducing stories of a little wood smog created during temperature inversions. Infuriating!

    NZ is so narcissistic, they think they are being the forerunner in carbon control to set an example for the whole world, they believe deeply that the UN is the source of great wisdom and leadership when they have no children, educated people leave in droves and they take in only refugees who won’t work for their dole.

    The US had more babies born this year than NZ has population, yet they punish their people trying to be the model for the world. They have become a third world country.

    Since our new govt seems to be a new narcissiscm embodied, I hope that’s not what’s in store for us.

  162. Benjamin says:

    In a lot of the comments here, many people are more concerned with the lives of these people than their faliure to prove anything. And the greenies say “denialists” lack compassion and consideration, because “we have become so modernized and selfish in our ipod world of convenience”. Yes, the greenies are wrong about pretty much everything but still we care about them as human beings, don’t we? And that is just so wonderful to see here!

    But I wonder if any of their lot would reciprocate the sentiment if a “denialist” was baking out in a globully warmed desert in their fantasized world? I don’t know. I hate thinking of mislead people of being so cruel but they would probably laugh and kick them for “violating nature” and call them stupid republicans or something.

  163. Ethan says:

    I hope they don’t give up. Imagine the headlines…People trying to prove the Pole is warming up er freeze to death! Rumours of AGW proved to be codswallop.

    Oh yes ..well worth the cost. Freeze you [snip]s!

  164. tallbloke says:

    The ‘right on’ PC approach to equipping this expedition using synthetic materials could become a killer. The ‘hi tech knows best’ attitude is proving itself wrong. Experience is the best teacher.

    Amundsen learned from the natives that fur keeps you warm and dry. Scott didn’t…

  165. Paul R says:

    Paul (12:41:32) :

    I don’t understand the need to measure ice thickness since the arctic is supposed to be ice free any day now. When it all melts in 5 years, 10 years, 30 years….when is it supposed to happen now??? Anyway, wait until it all melts and the thickness is 0 feet. A simple solution, no frostbite and they can wear their specialized arctic Speedo’s to measure.

    I saw the comment about Arctic Budgie Smugglers and imediately thought of the bloke in the Top Gear video who forgot to role his hose up. I’m more worried about what became of the bloke with the frostbitten tackle than our intrepid believers. Sad but I can’t feel sympathy for zealots when the “science” is more like propaganda.

  166. John Silver says:

    tallbloke (00:13:52) :

    “The ‘right on’ PC approach to equipping this expedition using synthetic materials could become a killer.”

    Synthetics are plastics made out of oil. In the end they will release their carbon.
    Fur have a zero carbon footprint.
    People like that are not PC or zealots or green, they are just ordinary stupid people.

  167. Mark says:

    James P (14:17:50) : said … “If they’re drilling through the ice to measure its thickness, why did they take a radar unit on a sledge? ”

    The radar gives about 60,000 thickness readings a day. The drilling for ice cores is a slow process is done only 3 or 4 times a day. One of the main purposes of the drilling is to calibrate the radar equipment. The radar unit does not give direct readings of layer thickness – the signals have to be interpreted. Hence the need for drilling which gives actual layer thicknesses which can be compared with the radar output at each drilling point.

  168. E.M.Smith says:

    David (12:57:13) : How about easing up on these people. They are trying something most of us would never think of. The fact that they are in distress seems to please a lot of people here. How about just hoping that they end up safe and in good health?

    David, I’ve kept quiet on this thread, until now, but have to reply because you are just wrong. Many of us would think of doing it, and have.

    I was ‘on deck’ as standby for a stint at the south pole station in the 1970’s. I was very disappointed that the number one guy got to go and I didn’t. Part of the prep was finding out just what you have to do to not die in those circumstances.

    Nature does not care what you want. The way you survive it is to be incredibly prepared and have very clear rules for bugging out when things start going wrong. You also must be brutally honest with yourself.

    That these folks:

    1) Don’t seem prepared enough.
    2) Deliberately did not use all the best equipment possible (i.e. furs, sled dogs / snocats, vapor barriers, etc.)
    3) Are not showing even moderate wisdom in staying on the ice long after things have started going wrong.
    4) Are at risk of imminent death.
    5) Are putting at risk others to rescue them.
    6) Are not accomplishing their goal and know it due to failure of plan.
    7) Have clearly reached a point where they can not make decent decisions and their handlers are not pulling them off the ice.

    Means that:

    1) Someone needs to ‘cowboy up’ and pull the plug. Now.
    2) Not doing it indicates clear stupidity.
    3) Stupidity, while not a crime, when displayed by folks with above average intelligence is cause for some humor. It is a normal human response to such a ‘horror in waiting’. The ice kills the stupid, even if just stupid from the cold.
    4) “Easing up” is not going to get the folks home safe. Public ridicule has some small hope. When ‘stupid’ is driving decisions, whacking up side the head is a better solution than ‘watchful waiting’.

    If I were managing this expedition it would have been scrubbed a week ago and we’d be doing a post mortem to decide the best route forward:

    a) Re-flight to the ice in a better position now. (You can resupply so you can also reposition, after you’re warm & fed).
    b) Re-equip with proper gear (furs, bags with vapor barriers, snocat etc.)
    c) Try again next year.
    d) Scrub.

    That this is not happening means:

    a) Management is stupid, negligent, or grandstanding.
    b) Someone is overstating the actual conditions for P.R. purposes.

    Neither of these is a good conclusion, so derision is warranted (even if I myself would not do it).

    And yes, I hope they come home healthy, safe, and soon.

    Sidebar: One of the stories we were told in preparation was that the military resupply guys liked to get their pictures taken in full fur coats next to the plane. One of the scientists who had been down there a long time (and was acclimated) like to do a fast jog past behind them and get ‘caught’ in the picture running in shoes, shorts, T shirt, and not much else (hat maybe?). He could do one quick out-and-back lap and needed to time it just right to avoid frostbite, but had it down. Imagine the guys trying to impress their friends with their pole pics with stories of intense cold with a jogger in the background!

    (It still bothers me sometimes that I didn’t get to go. far more folks would do time on the ice if they could get a chance. I’d go now if I could, just to scratch that old itch.)

  169. Sandy says:

    If the worst happened would you be a witness in a manslaughter trial against the handlers?

  170. Ed Fix says:

    Pen Hadow is warming up.

    I haven’t been following this story closely, since I’m not particularly surprised that arctic sea ice is thinner than it was 50 years ago. That the world is warmer than it used to be is not controversial, and any “data” they may gather is not particularly interesting. However, I looked at the Catlin website last night and saw Pen Hadow’s body core temp down around 34 degrees. That concerned me, so I checked again this morning around 10:30-11:00Z, and watched Hadow’s core temp increase from 34 to 37 within 15-20 minutes. Also, all their heart rates slowed from over 100 to around 70-90 BPM.

    Apparently, the resupply plane reached them (I hope). Hopefully, someone will pull the plug on this foolishness and bring them home.

  171. John A says:

    I don’t take any delight in their suffering hypothermia whatever the reason. I hope they get pulled from the ice before somebody dies unnecessarily.

  172. John A says:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

    Somebody get Pen Hadow off the ice before he freezes to death!

    Core temp 33.64C !

    Not good at all.

  173. James P says:

    Mark (01:44:24) :

    The radar gives about 60,000 thickness readings a day. The drilling for ice cores is a slow process is done only 3 or 4 times a day. One of the main purposes of the drilling is to calibrate the radar equipment. The radar unit does not give direct readings of layer thickness – the signals have to be interpreted. Hence the need for drilling which gives actual layer thicknesses which can be compared with the radar output at each drilling point.

    Thank you, Mark. I look forward to seeing the results, if and when they get published!

  174. schnurrp says:

    Other than the widely publicized loss of Polar Bear habitat, what are the real problems associated with the loss of summer sea ice at the North Pole?

    IMHO this story illustrates that there are some climatic conditions on the Earth that would benefit from a few degrees of warming. I don’t see how this benefits the global warming contingent at all.

  175. Jack says:

    Stupid is as stupid does.

    Or in this case, ~snip~ idiots. At least they didn’t force a well prepared guide to die with them.

  176. Mike Bryant says:

    I hate to say it, but the administration’s plans to curtail most cruises to the Arctic and the north pole may be a good idea. It seems to me that many nuclear icebreakers cruising through 6′ thick sea ice could only speed it’s removal by wind and currents. Am I completely confused here?
    Mike

  177. bill says:

    philincalifornia (20:45:54) :
    The New Scientist – the Mad Magazine of Pseudoscience.

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Why not read the article!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

    “There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”

    “Even if you lost only half of the first-year ice this year – which would be average – you are still in for a very low ice extent this summer,” says Serreze.

    Some factors could still save the day, though. In summer 2007, warm winds favoured melting. “If we have an atmospheric pattern like we had last year, we are going to lose a whole bunch of ice this summer, but if we have a cooler, more cyclonic pattern, that might preserve some of that ice,” says Serreze. Watch this space…

  178. Mike Kelley says:

    Am I a bad person for wishing Al Gore and James Hansen were with this expedition?

  179. Phil. says:

    hengav (22:19:18) :
    They took down the daily progress site. They haven’t had the “latest from the ice” in days.

    Those pages are still there:
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx

  180. James P says:

    The ice kills the stupid, even if just stupid from the cold.

    Perhaps that’s what the team member who said it was ‘stupidly cold’ meant? How prescient!

  181. James P says:

    This isn’t very encouraging…

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/The_Quitter

  182. Bill McClure says:

    This event just verifies to me the problems we have with goverment and some businesses. Instead of listening to experts with years of experience. So called experts with limited experence but a huge politicial agenda are atempting to controll what they can not. We laugh at this group because they are but a small part of a larger travisty happening all around us. I hope they make it out in good shape but I am also terrified by the camparison of their demise to what poorly prepared goverment officials can di to the quality of my life

  183. Arn Riewe says:

    Curious developments at the Catlin website:

    Two days ago, they were planning for resupply, hence no progress from prior day – distance covered – 225.50 km

    Yesterday – Still arranging resupply. No mention of progress, but distance traveled now drops back to 202.24 km

    Today – Still arranging resupply, weather doesn’t look good for today, but miraculously, the distance covered now is 241.13 km. That’s the biggest one day progress so far. The PR center hasn’t explained this one yet.

  184. Keith says:

    Interesting post here:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Planning_a_Resupply

    The resupply operations guy is saying that for a plane to land safely for resupply, “…the landing strip must be of an ice-thickness of more than 60cm…”.

    Now, here:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Drilling_Observations

    Pen Hadow is reported as saying, “‘The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick’, he told Independent Television News. ‘Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt’.”

    So ice that is only 60 cm, between 30 to 40% of the drill depths they are getting, is safe for a loaded plane. But the thicker stuff will melt during the summer?

    [sarcasm] I bet they are glad they didn’t do the expedition in warmer months, because they might have had a hard time finding ice that was thick enough. [/sarcasm]

  185. MikeW says:

    Hmm, it seems to me that the Catlin team knew exactly what they were getting into, and prepared extensively for it. Their deadly mistake was not to prepare for any what-if or what-else scenarios. If you look at some of their videos of their training near Broughton Island you’ll see their wonder extended only to how ‘balmy’ the trip might be.

    Check this video: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery_video.aspx?id=40

    In it, Pen claims that up to 10% of the trip may be across open water! He models a specially made waterproof suit that will allow them to bob around as if in a big tub for up to 48 hours. What great fun they’re convinced they’re going to have.

    Indeed, prepare for encounters with water. But it seems like they didn’t entertain the possibility that it could be cold enough that they’d never even see any water. Even I can easily see that Pen splashing around in his suit was NOT prudent trip preparation; he should have jumped in and let his chin dip below the surface. Or he should have made an ‘error’ in sealing part of his suit. How long is that suit good for when water gets in? Can you even climb back out?
    In video #34 ‘Ann falls though the ice’ (It’ll be so thin, you know). She climbs out quickly enough and immediately tells of the intense and increasing pain of her wet feet. She then runs off to ‘go warm up’ so as not to lose her feet. I’d think that she should have done that test after a day’s hike and then she and her two comrades could see if they could set up a tent before she froze solid.
    In video #37 ‘Clothing – The Layers’ Ann models their clothing. At first she says that wearing all their bulky layers is for when it’s really cold, like -40, stuck in camp doing nothing very energetic, like drilling. They need to remove a layer to be in their ‘sledge dragging’ attire which seems to be suited for slightly warmer weather than they’ve been getting.
    In the several videos of Houghton Island training that I viewed I never saw anyone’s frosty breath while speaking outdoors. In video #58, ‘Martins snacks’, every puff of his frosty breath is clearly visible while inside the tent. How warm was their training site? And how much did it work to enforce their false weather expectations?

    This expedition is such a sad, sad quest. I think they truly believe that, if they can just hang in there a little longer, an expanse of open water might be just over the next hump of ice. The sun will sparkle on the wavelets… it’ll be so beautiful… you’ll see… the whole world will see… Just a little longer… just a little farther… we’re almost there…

  186. karl heuer says:

    The “Live from the Ice” biotelemetry is definitely not live:

    When the data loads,

    Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time the page loads, then increments up to 33.57, 33.64, 33.7, 33.75

    every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files and rebooted — still the same

  187. Bruce Cobb says:

    Resupply will supposedly be at 8:20 GMT, a little less than 4 hours from now. They have the runway picked out and cleared of ice chunks. I imagine there is much anticipation, not only for the new supplies, but the human contact with the outside world.
    Much as we may rightly despise and ridicule the “eco-warrior” aspect of the team, they are, first and foremost fellow human beings. I sympathize with comments wishing ill will – I even made one myself a ways back, (something to do with the tents and polar bear “snack sacks”), but I see them as statements made out of sheer frustration with the whole stupidity of the expedition, and its obvious intent to further the CAGW/CC dogma, not as actual ill will towards the team members themselves.

  188. philincalifornia says:

    bill (05:11:08) :

    philincalifornia (20:45:54) :
    The New Scientist – the Mad Magazine of Pseudoscience.

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Why not read the article!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

    ___________________________________________

    My friend subscribed to it for years and would pass it along to me after he had read it. Quite frankly, I hated it. Whenever it touched upon my field (organic chemistry, molecular biology, biotechnology) it got it hopelessly wrong through the editor’s obsession with making every article ludicrously Anglocentric. I was educated in England, so I know the players there.

    The proof that it was warmer now than in the medieval warming period “because there are more vineyards now” was the last straw for me. I will not waste my time reading that dross when I can spend my time more valuably reading wattsupwith that.com.

    Case in point – you just selected a piece for me that was worth reading, and I thank you for that.

  189. hotrod says:

    Ed Fix (03:22:53) :

    Pen Hadow is warming up.

    I haven’t been following this story closely, since I’m not particularly surprised that arctic sea ice is thinner than it was 50 years ago. That the world is warmer than it used to be is not controversial, and any “data” they may gather is not particularly interesting. However, I looked at the Catlin website last night and saw Pen Hadow’s body core temp down around 34 degrees. That concerned me, so I checked again this morning around 10:30-11:00Z, and watched Hadow’s core temp increase from 34 to 37 within 15-20 minutes. Also, all their heart rates slowed from over 100 to around 70-90 BPM.

    Watching the telemetry today I noticed a couple things of interest (at least to me)!

    The first time I viewed the data, Pen Hadow’s skin temperatures were on a par with the other team members, while his core temps were consistently at least 2-3 deg C cooler. His core temps also do not seem to change much even when he has brief periods of 120 bpm pulse rates indicating some strenuous activity like climbing an ice ridge.

    The second time I “tuned in” both his core temp and skin temp were 2-3 deg C cooler than his team mates. This could be due to him opening his parka for some activity or to ventilate to prevent over heating.

    During Mountain Rescue operations, we would spend a great deal of time opening our parkas and re-closing them to manage body temp to prevent sweating while under heavy exertion in high winds and cold air temps. He might simply be more inclined to do that and be more comfortable at a lower skin temp that his companions.

    Years ago I took a winter survival course and the instructor had us take our body temp every hour during the day for several days to learn our “normal body temp” and our “normal diurnal temp cycle”. The idea that there is a normal body temp is not really true except in a broad sense. The class had a rather wide range of “normal body temperatures” and each person had a slightly different temperature cycle during the day. For example in the winter when I am cold acclimated, I am comfortable with little or no clothing at still air temps in the low to mid 60 degree F range when I first wake up. Later in the morning as my body temperature rises, I need higher air temps to be comfortable. When we plotted our daily body temp cycle I found out that my body temp on waking was about a degree F cooler than most people and it rose more slowly than most, not reaching what is considered normal (near 98 deg F) until about 10:00 am local time and did not hit the oft sited 98.6 deg F temp until early afternoon if I did not perform any physical activity to “rev up my metabolism”. Perhaps this explained why I did not really wake up until mid morning and did not feel fully awake until late in the after noon and into the early evening (night owl). I have known several people that were quite comfortable in shirt sleeves at temps that would force most others to put on coats.

    I am beginning to think his core temp sensor may simply have a 2-3 deg C bias or the sensor is “mis-placed” so that it is not reading the same as other team members, or he is one of those people that is on the low normal end of the normal range of human body temps.

    Has anyone figured out what the day sleep cycle they are using is ie when do they wake up and sleep GMT (UTC) time?

    All that said, given the comments about slurred speech, cold wet sleeping bags, in adequate sleep and such, I still think they are in trouble but question the reliability of the telemetry given how much his temp numbers jump around compared to the other team members.

    Right now he is showing near normal core temps of 36.84 deg C and cool skin temps of 31.3 deg C.

    Now he is showing 37.1 deg C core and 29.4 skin temps.

    Perhaps these bio metric measurements are as useful as global average temperature measurements and suffer from the same sort of quality control issues.

    Larry

  190. Bruce Cobb says:

    OK, I hadn’t noticed the update being scrolled at the top saying the resupply is delayed to tomorrow, due to poor weather conditions.

  191. Douglas DC says:

    I hope that the Twin Otter crew makes a good, low, slow pass of that ‘landing strip’ as I would be questioning their strength and ablility to clear the field.
    I do _not_ want anyone killed at the Altar of Gaia,However,having been in
    several search missions and personally getting a nasty case of frostbite because of a backcountry skiing cock-up,I fear this going downhill before our eyes.Give it up folks!…

  192. coalsoffire says:

    Phil. (06:51:24) :

    Arn the ice they’re on is drifting towards the pole

    They should build an igloo and ride it out!

    Watching their website is like playing poker. They never let you know exactly what is in their hand. You just get fed tidbits of information and whole meals of what looks like disinformation. I get the same frustration trying to read Real Climate. I gave that up and now I’m giving up looking at the Catlin website too. They are on their own, in their own little world of deceit as far as I’m concerned. I’m not giving them the satisfaction of any more “hits” on their site.

  193. hotrod says:

    karl heuer (07:40:46) :

    The “Live from the Ice” biotelemetry is definitely not live:

    When the data loads,

    Pen Hadow core temp starts at 33.25 C every time the page loads, then increments up to 33.57, 33.64, 33.7, 33.75

    every time, I have refreshed, cleared temp files and rebooted — still the same

    I just tried it looking at Pen Haddow’s pulse rate — Hmmm what are the odds that 32 consecutive pulse rate measurements would be identical?

    Yes looks like the bio metric data is just white was to make their site look nifty, and has absolutely no value at all — perhaps they already have all their ice measurements in the can too?

    91
    91.3
    93.9
    95.1
    93.5
    88.5
    85
    87.6
    91.2
    94.5
    101.3
    106.6
    105.9
    102
    96.6
    92.9
    87.2
    85.1
    79.9
    80.7
    80.2
    85.9
    89.9
    96.2
    105.9
    116.7
    113.9
    103.4
    90.8
    83.4
    82.1
    82.4
    ===========

    91
    91.3
    93.9
    95.1
    93.5
    88.5
    85
    87.6
    91.2
    94.5
    101.3
    106.6
    105.9
    102
    96.6
    92.9
    87.2
    85.1
    79.9
    80.7
    80.2
    85.9
    89.9
    96.2
    105.9
    116.7
    113.9
    103.4
    90.8
    83.4
    82.1
    82.4
    ==================

    Larry

  194. bill says:

    Larry:
    I am beginning to think his core temp sensor may simply have a 2-3 deg C bias or the sensor is “mis-placed” so that it is not reading the same as other team members, or he is one of those people that is on the low normal end of the normal range of human body temps.

    I think the core is derived from swallowed radio pills:
    Team members will also ingest a ‘core pill’ which passes through the stomach into the intestines. This pill contains a miniature temperature sensor, battery and radio transmitter and communicates core body temperature readings to the Equivital™ unit

    Presumably whatever he swallowed isn’t up to spec.

    Do they have a 100day supply each or do they have to recycle the pills?!

    As to poor equipment/inexperience and much worse comments. They have been at -35 to -40C for 38 days without life threatening disasters. 2 members have been to the poles before. If they were not dragging batteries and electronics I’m sure firstly that they would be much quicker, and secondly you would not have a running commentary of relative trivia. Most expeditions like this must be tough on the individuals, and you just do not hear them at the end of the exploit complaining about trivial happenings tiredness/cold/and wanting to turn back – these are forgotten. You hear about real disatsters/high points

  195. Heinzz says:

    Nice!, Hotrod

  196. Mike Bryant says:

    hotrod and karl heuer,
    Good work. What this amounts to is deliberate deception. Do the sponsors know what they are paying for? Does the prince realize that he is being swindled?
    I feel so used…
    Mike Bryant

    PS Too bad that the feeling is becoming so familiar.

  197. Walter Cronanty says:

    [snip - OT see story on main page]

  198. hotrod says:

    Mike Bryant (09:43:05) :

    hotrod and karl heuer,
    Good work. What this amounts to is deliberate deception. Do the sponsors know what they are paying for? Does the prince realize that he is being swindled?
    I feel so used…
    Mike Bryant

    PS Too bad that the feeling is becoming so familiar.

    Yes the cynic in me suspects that they saw a lot of hits from WUWT and “fed” that hypothermia story to pump up hits on their site. Then at some future time they will use their site hit statistics to validate how “Important” their work was.

    There is a fine print disclaimer at the bottom of the bio-data section that the data will not be used to determine medical condition of the team. If they were even remotely ethical they would include in that disclaimer that the data was archived, delayed or representative and not real time data as they clearly intend the site to be interpreted by the average visitor who will only monitor for a few seconds or minutes.

    I will not ever visit their site again — in my mind they are running a scam and intentionally misrepresenting them selves. If you go to the link for the manufacture of the bio-data monitoring system it is a dead end link — ie it is just a URL with no page at all, not even an under construction page.

    At this point unless they can produce a satellite photo of their expedition on the ice taken by an independent vendor, I have serious doubts they are even on the ice where they report to be.

    Just another case of “cooked data” I suspect unless they can do a very well documented case to show the trip is actually taking place right now, I will discount anything and everything they say they have accomplished.

    If nothing else if they were at all interested in being ethical and open when folks started contacting them about their concern over the health of their team they should have (would have) responded with with — a thank you for your concern but that biodata is only representative, and does not indicate the actual bioreadings of the team answer.

    None of the advertisers have responded in that manner either so they are either complicit in the intentional misrepresentation of the situation or are being scammed just like the general public.

    Larry

  199. Phil. says:

    If you go to the link for the manufacture of the bio-data monitoring system it is a dead end link — ie it is just a URL with no page at all, not even an under construction page.

    There isn’t a link to the manufacturer but there is a full description of the equipment and the name of the manufacturer which is easily found by Google (see below)

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology_ept
    http://www.equivital.co.uk/terms_conditions.html

  200. George Antunes says:

    According to their twitter…The resupply plane has landed safely on the ice. The ice-team have approximately 40 minutes to get everything sorted.

  201. B Kerr says:

    hotrod (11:39:03) :
    “At this point unless they can produce a satellite photo of their expedition on the ice taken by an independent vendor, I have serious doubts they are even on the ice where they report to be.”

    Catlin sites tonight says:
    “Identified on high-res Radarsat 2 satellite imagery, the team are trekking NNE to what looks like a potential landing strip for the resupply”

    Checked Radarsat 2
    http://www.radarsat2.info/

    The site has its own Catlin link
    http://www.radarsat2.info/about/gallery/catlin/

    Hope Radarsat 2 publish images of the Catlin team on the ice.

  202. Aureus Puer says:

    Honestly! Sending Brits to do a Canadian’s work. We work comfortably outside in the winter at -40; mining exploration is immeasurably easier with no bugs and frozen lakes. Putting a frame tent up at -35 can be dangerous; don’t pick up nails with your bare hands. Standing in the downdraft of a helicopter unloading supplies at a static air temperature of -44 is not fun; no exposed skin is the key.

    We found that employees could handle living in a frame tent at -44 for two months of Saskatchewan winter was no big deal. However, when the temperature dropped below -50, problems happened. We surmised it was the psychological effect of thinking that you must be cold at -55 even if you’re not, and then doing things that made one cold.

    Eating animal fat helps… lots of butter on partly frozen bread.

  203. Revnant Dream says:

    Pull them out before they die. This type of stupidity for nothing, is just window dressing the fact that this whole adventure was founded on misdirection if not utter lies. Now we are to watch two martyers for the Religion of Global warming die for shaman science?
    Gee that makes sense.

  204. hotrod says:

    Phil. (11:55:35) :

    If you go to the link for the manufacture of the bio-data monitoring system it is a dead end link — ie it is just a URL with no page at all, not even an under construction page.

    There isn’t a link to the manufacturer but there is a full description of the equipment and the name of the manufacturer which is easily found by Google (see below)

    I was referring to the URL http://www.hidalgo.co.uk/ I found in their web pages for the manufacturer.

    Larry

  205. hotrod says:

    I finely found the link I used it is the Hildago name on the sponsors page:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/sponsors

    Larry

  206. CABLE says:

    Having discussed this and found out more the data is real data from the 3 individuals on the ice, but as the site clearly says is not ‘live’ as larry and hotrod suggest but ‘operational’- ie. has been taken during this survey .

    I watched more than 90 minutes of data from the site.

    Aside from the first few minutes of data from Pen (with low core temperatures) which I am assuming is still showing the core pill in transit to the stomach (since the temperature is consistently rising), the data is clean and it is pretty amazing that we are able to see data collected from such environments.

    Karl, after the initial transit of the pill, the core plateaus and amazingly shows the body maintaining temps around 37 for all 3 of them. Skin temperature is known to vary a lot, and is largely, by itself, an unreliable measure for assessing core body temperature and would never be expected to be as consistent a vital as core tmeperature. Core temperature is also a difficult measure to monitor continuously in a moving individual- but this data looks pretty good.

    What would be interesting at this time (as we aren’t able to see all the data collected on vitals to date) is to see trends of core temperatures (in particular) through the expedition so far and some of the more recent data collected. And yes it would be amazing to plot this if possible against the sleep cycle if that is available.

    So this is not deceit from what I can tell, but simply a group of people trying to carry out an expedition for a subject they, and many others are passionate about.

    I cannot comment on the scientific merits of the collection of ice thickness data, but I think at least for their attempts they deserve credit.

  207. ralph ellis says:

    >>Just think, on April 25, 2008 (yes 2008) New Scientist predicted
    >>the north pole could be ice free by the summer of 2008. I wonder
    >>what they were smoking

    New Scientist is the media wing of GreenPeace. I have tried to get them to print articles on the variability of windpower, and why population increase is the greatest threat to the environment, and they have refused point blank. According to New Scientist editors, intermittent electrical supplies are not a problem for a technical society.

    .

  208. sick of leftist claptrap says:

    [snip - off color, off topic]

  209. philincalifornia says:

    For those interested, I found the pukeworthy New Scientist link. It’s from 2007, unbelievably, but still has a great hockey stick graph, complete with “peer-reviewed” references. Peers for fears.

    Only two years on, but it looks like a really bad 1970s haircut.

  210. philincalifornia says:
  211. coalsoffire says:

    While you are considering the problem of reporting a continuous loop of old data as though it were live, think about the other reports made by this group. We have alarming reports of hypothermia, frostbite, difficulties to resupply, psychological troubles and other difficulties. Each of which, taken alone and considering the harsh and unforgiving conditions is life threatening. Yet the support team advisors who write the little story lines about these difficulties merrily point out the tragic conditions without ever acknowledging the extreme danger. Either everyone involved is drinking a special kool aid that deadens their professional sense of responsibility and even liability, or the troubles are exaggerated or even cooked up from beginning to end. Why don’t we see a photo, for example, of that frost bitten toe? After all, it belongs to a photographer. We were treated to a picture of some generic frost bitten toe.

    If you go back to a post by the team doctor early in the drama, he talked about the way the body compensates for heat deficit by shutting down blood flow to the extremities. Here’s his quote:

    The fact that the Team can’t now feel their fingers and toes demonstrates not only just how extreme the cold is ( -34ºC… just try to imagine! your freezer at home is –18º or so) but also the amazing lengths the body will go to survive.

    In future articles, we’ll have a look at what happens if the body’s mechanisms begin to fail – hypothermia and frostbite

    Thus he predicted the game plan to heighten interest in the project by reporting hypothermia and frostbite. Any responsible medical advisor would have, upon the first signs of either of these conditions, pulled his patients out of the cold. This doctor is either totally irresponsible, or he knows this is just a charade.

    Who thinks it’s sensible to have people enjoying frostbite and chronic hypothermia wandering around near the north pole making critical decisions about how to avoid and traverse ice that is constantly opening and shifting? No one, that’s who. So the physical troubles these people are encountering are wildly exaggerated for the publicity. Trust nothing about the reports of this adventure.

  212. Mike Lorrey says:

    I am sitting snugly in my heated home in New Hampshire after a winter of snow and ice and cold outside while the tv experts kept telling me it was warmer than ever outside.

    I’ve worked in -40 weather before. Using the right equipment is essential to life or deaths. Sounds to me like they accepted some junk from some treehugging corp sponsor. They also needed some survival training. A couple weeks at the USAF survival school would have done wonders, albeit hurt their street cred with their constituency.

    While I would like to hope they come off the ice alive and in one piece, frankly given the damage they and their kind are doing for the sake of an agenda, I don’t.

  213. John West says:

    These three stooges are puppets in a global warming scam that will make fat Al Gore and his elitist cronies richer and the rest of us poorer.

    This is a trek for a socialist feudal world which will only come about by forcing us all to reduce our standard of living to something like they have in Cuba only without the nice warm beaches.

    No one fully understands climate and to mess with things you we know little about is to court disaster. Such as Obama’s latest lunacy about shooting pollution particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight to cool the planet even more. What if that backfires? What then? What an arrogant idea!

    If this planet warmed up some, we would all prosper. Too bad it’s now in a cooling phase with idiots in charge who grope with half baked ideas and over-taxations schemes to bilk Joe Public.

    The facts no longer support the global warming “THEORY”.

  214. Tulekah says:

    on the one hand you have Amundson, on the other Scott…Amundsen…Scott…Amundsen…Scott…One didn’t die…One became so very famous…Sad.

  215. Jeff Alberts says:

    Tulekah (14:56:56) :

    on the one hand you have Amundson, on the other Scott…Amundsen…Scott…Amundsen…Scott…One didn’t die…One became so very famous…Sad.

    I commented about this early on in another thread. Why is it that the guy who failed, badly, is a hero because he died, and took the best part of his team with him. But the guy who repeatedly succeeded is just a notation in the history books. Amundsen was THE man.

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