Global Warming At The Pole Since 1913

Guest post by Steven Goddard

the-north-pole

From the Catlin web site today – a first hand description of what motivates the explorers, and what they are learning about Arctic warming.

Thursday, 02 Apr 2009 10:04
“Men wanted for Hazardous Journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful.  Honour and recognition in case of success.”

Thousands of men (and three women) replied to Ernest Shackleton’s advertisement, which (the story goes) was placed in a London newspaper in 1913, ahead of his Antarctic expedition aboard the Endurance.

Polar expeditions have moved on in terms of technology and equipment, but the motivation and commitment to research that fuelled Shackleton and his team seem not to have altered.

“There’s a cocktail of motivational forces at work”, commented Expedition Leader Pen Hadow from the team tent, huddled over the sat-phone at the end of another long, cold day.  “You can sum it up by saying we feel a commitment to represent the Arctic Ocean as an eco-system and the three of us have the skills that allow us to gather the information that will enable people to be better informed about the state of the region and its future“.

But given temperatures of -40 degrees centigrade with a wind chill factor in the minus seventies, does the motivation that fuelled the team from their warm UK base in the planning stages, diminish?

Photographer Martin Hartley who’s been crawling into a frozen sleeping back that becomes a wet sponge overnight for longer than he cares to remember, remarks I’m getting extremely frustrated with the stupidly cold temperatures that are making my life a misery, day after day.  All I can think about, 24 hours a day, is getting a new sleeping bag on the next re-supply”.

But Hadow says he’s speaking for all three team members, himself, Hartley and Ann Daniels, when he concludes, “We’ve absolutely no regrets about being here.  Given that it’s so awful, our commitment to the research and our motivation is in fact what keeps us going”.

With a team currently preparing the next re-supply, Hartley should get his new sleeping bag within the next few days.

What I find interesting is the use of the word “But” and “stupidly cold” highlighted in red above.  It appears that what they are experiencing on the ground is not what they were expecting to find.

From yesterday :

The team covered a staggering 16.7km today, the biggest distance achieved to date. By covering so much distance since the last resupply (134.5km in 13 days), the team have observed the ice they are crossing is getting significantly older and thicker

So it is extremely cold and they are finding old, thick ice.  That does not sound like the sub-tropical Arctic as portrayed by The Guardian.

Flashback to February, 2008 OSLO, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) — The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming, Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday.

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139 Responses to Global Warming At The Pole Since 1913

  1. Harold Ambler says:

    Alarmism about the Arctic continues.

    Cryosphere Today shows the 2007 melt as a highlight video and insists upon calling it “this year’s ice,” despite an e-mail requesting that they update the site.

    Do you think that they would have updated the video if 2008 had seen more melting than 2007? Do you think that most casual visitors to the site even know that the video of “this year’s ice” is not of this year’s ice?

    Similarly, Cryosphere chooses to “bury” the information about the Antarctic ice’s resiliency far down on its front page, likewise with the global sea ice information.

    Does the average person walking around in London, New York, and Paris have any idea that global sea ice is above the mean yet again in April of 2009?

    Don’t answer that question.

  2. Roger Knights says:

    Shouldn’t there be a question mark at the end of this thread’s title?

  3. Leon Brozyna says:

    A concrete example of the power of cognitive dissonance.

    I believe … I believe … I believe … and in the face of any evidence that may contradict any belief system, the True Believer trudges on, blinders in place, prepared to die in support of the belief system.

    In this way are martyrs born.

  4. MarkM says:

    What a great political marketing stunt!

    The AGW crowd will use this “scientific expedition” for political gain for years even though the so-called data that they gain from the ice will probably not support their political agenda. They will “spin” the data!

    markm

  5. DJKP says:

    Someone please remind me again why we cant get these measurements via satellite?

  6. crosspatch says:

    Ok, 2007 was an anomalous year when wind patterns blew a lot of the ice out of the Arctic and into the Atlantic where it melted.

    2008 saw a recovery with more ice for a longer period than 2007 had but the ice was still mostly young and thinner.

    2009 so far shows ice about a half-meter thicker than 2008 was, and there is a larger percentage of older, fresher ice (ice gets less salty with age) this year than last. It would be reasonable to assume that under “normal” arctic conditions this summer, there should be more ice in 2009 than there was in 2008.

  7. Aron says:

    The latest attempt to denigrate dissenters

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/apr/01/climate-change-sceptics?commentpage=1&commentposted=1

    They must find us threatening to be sending us to cyber Gulags.

  8. Barry Foster says:

    These Catlin people are certainly not scientists. I had better not convey my true feelings for them here – there may be children reading. Thing is though, they are being given a lesson – and that’s good. But it will take them so long to get to the Pole that they’re bound to come across thin ice somewhere that they will make a mountain out of for their cameras. It’s inevitable – a bit like the FIA banning Lewis Hamilton from at least one race this Grands Prix season.

  9. Bill in AZ says:

    Anyone with the least amount of investigative preparation for an expedition in extreme cold would know that you need a vapor barrier in your sleeping bag to prevent normal body moisture from accumulating in it. It accumulates because it freezes in the insulation and won’t evaporate. Some early expedition talked about 10 lb bags weighing 70 lbs after a period of time. I’m guessing they substituted swim trunks for vapor barriers, expecting sandy beaches and warm sunshine due to GloBull Warming.
    Vapor barriers take some getting used to, but it is far better to have a dry bag and insulation, than melting all that ice around you every night – as they have discovered.

  10. John Egan says:

    But, but, but – – –
    Didn’t the Wicked Witch of the West scream, “I’m melting!” ??

  11. Alec, a.k.a Daffy Duck says:

    speaking of sea ice, FYI:

    WASHINGTON, April 1 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., will hold a media teleconference on Monday, April 6, at 11 a.m. EDT, to present the latest observations of sea ice conditions in the Arctic…..
    To participate in the teleconference, reporters must contact Steve Cole at 202-358-0918 or stephen.e.cole@nasa.gov for dial-in instructions no later than 5 p.m. EDT on April 3.
    http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/04-01-2009/0004999175&EDATE=

  12. Ayrdale says:

    I have to admire their courage and fortitude, but the whole thing seems more and more like a nutty stunt.

    It could be difficult for them by the sound of it, to eventually translate their “findings” into PC speak…

  13. Robert Bateman says:

    Stupidly cold as Stupidly deluded have concluded.
    There’s a reason why people have died trying.
    Even if they do make it to the pole before winter hits again, their measurements will be skewed by increasing temps as it takes way too long to survey the line.

  14. Adam from Kansas says:

    The ice seems fine for now if that’s what they’re saying, so not to worry too much about the polar bears.

    The extent is declining now, but Cryosphere’s graphic shows more than half at least is in one spot which is the Sea of Oshtosk or however you spell it.

    Meanwhile I look at today’s SST map and the negative PDO phase remains strong and should have an effect even with ENSO being neutral (the PDO negative anomaly area even seeing a couple spots of cold water upwelling, plus the cold spot off Africa remains and some very cold spots in the southern ocean.
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.2.2009.gif

  15. John Egan says:

    In a more serious vein –

    On March 30, the National Snow and Ice Data Center published its report on the Arctic ice maximum.

    “On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).”
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    If you look at the satellite photo map, you will notice that Arctic ice is generally at 30-year extent except for two areas. It is beyond the 30-year line in the Bering Sea, but it is well less than normal in the Sea of Okhotsk.

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png

    And that is my main question – –
    Why is the Sea of Okhotsk included in overall Arctic ice figures?

    Yes, it seems that icing in the Sea of Okhotsk has undergone a significant change over the past 30 years, but the Sea of Okhotsk is an arm of the North Pacific Ocean – not the Arctic Ocean. Although there may likely be some deep current water mixing in the mid-to-long term, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Arctic Ocean are separated by more than 1500 miles. In fact, the Oyashio current off the coast of Kamchatka is southerly.

    What gives?
    What portion of Arctic ice shortfall comes for the Sea of Okhotsk?

  16. Bruce Cobb says:

    “There’s a cocktail of motivational forces at work”, commented Expedition Leader Pen Hadow… You can sum it up by saying we feel a commitment to represent the Arctic Ocean as an eco-system and the three of us have the skills that allow us to gather the information that will enable people to be better informed about the state of the region and its future“.
    Yes, good sound bite. Sounds much better than “we’re really just here for the adventure, fame, and hopefully, the book and/or movie deals in the future.” The “scientific” aspect, and supposed “concern” for the arctic eco-system of course helped get them the backing for the expedition, and gives the whole thing a noble spin.

  17. Elizabeth says:

    One used to be able to view data on the Catlin web site, but I can no longer find it. Anyone know if they are still publishing this data?

  18. coalsoffire says:

    With this ill planned expedition we have a fine example of the power of belief. As Maxwell Anderson put it in his play about Joan D’Arc: “Sometimes people believe in little or nothing, nevertheless they give up their lives to that little or nothing, but to surrender what you are, and live without belief, that is more terrible than dying, more terrible than dying young.” They would rather die that surrender their beliefs, ill founded as they may be. These brave expeditionists (exhibitionists???) have chosen to risk their lives for such a doubtful cause that it surely increases the tragedy if they meet what is their likely fate. A simple well timed 3 day blizzard would pretty much wipe them out, And while the scientific value of their quest (belief) is obviously in the ‘little or nothing” category, they do believe in it, and so are willing to give up their lives for it.

    The lesson for the rest of us? Choose your beliefs carefully.

  19. tallbloke says:

    Reality bites, as does frost.
    I hope the damage to Martin’s hhands isn’t permanent, and that they get thei new sleeping bags issued with the vapour barriers they should have taken in the first place. As a seasoned cold weather backpacker, it seems to me that by deciding against taking them, they were making an assumption that the daytime sunlight and temperatures would be sufficient to dry the bags.

    Pen Hadow is an experienced arctic explorer, I wonder how he is feeling about his influence on gear selection given Martin’s difficulties.

  20. Eve says:

    I wasn’t sure where to post this but I just received a letter from our Canadian Environment Ministry. I have a real problem with the fact that our government thinks the IPCC is sound science. I have told them so and suggested that they also look at the NIPCC. Any other suggestions.

    Eve

    1+1 Environment
    Canada
    MAR 3 1 2009
    Environnement
    Canada
    Ms. Eve Stevens
    eve_stevens84@sympatico.ca
    Dear Ms. Stevens:
    On behalf of the Minister of the Environment, the Honourable Jim Prentice,
    I am responding to your email message of February 18, concerning climate
    change science.
    For policy-makers, one of the challenges in developing policy on science-based
    issues is to base this policy on “sound science.” Thousands of scientists around
    the world are undertaking research relevant to climate change, and innumerable
    new scientific papers are published in the scientific literature each year. The
    generally accepted method for evaluating this evolving body of knowledge
    is through a process of formal scientific assessment. The prerequisite for
    inclusion in such an assessment is that the science has been peer reviewed
    and is publicly available.
    Through the assessment process, the results of any single scientist or paper
    are put in context within the broader information base. I believe that the best
    process for evaluating the scientific literature on climate change is that of
    the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The rigorous scientific
    assessment process used by the Panel is widely acknowledged by the scientific
    community, and has been endorsed by National Academies of Science from
    many countries around the world, including Canada. The Government of Canada
    believes that Canada is served better by having this country’s distinguished and
    well-respected climate experts contribute to the authoritative and rigorous
    scientific assessments of the Panel, than by undertaking a more limited Canadian
    scientific assessment or “audit” as you request.
    The value of the Panel assessment process, as with other assessment
    processes on science issues of public interest, is in the consensus building that
    occurs during the preparation of assessment reports. This “consensus” does
    not mean that there is unanimity among scientists, but rather that the authors
    of the assessment agree that their report is a fair representation of the state of
    scientific understanding at that point in time. Individual papers and individual
    scientists may disagree with the conclusions, but the conclusions are consistent
    with the larger body of literature that exists.
    The most recent Panel assessment report was published in 2007. One of
    the conclusions of this report was that warming of the climate system is
    unequivocal, that most of the warming since the mid-20th century is very likely
    Canada http://www.ec.gc.ca
    due to the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse ~~ses arisin
    from human activity, and that of these gases, carbon dioxide has l’ik(l\th’e’ ;”
    greatest impact.
    The Government of Canada is very concerned about climate change, and there
    is more than enough scientific evidence to warrant aggressive action to deal with
    the problem.
    I hope that the foregoing information is of assistance.
    Sincerely,
    Brian T. Gray, Ph.D.
    Assistant Deputy Minister
    Science and Technology Branch
    Environment Canada

  21. Ian M says:

    It is tempting to rush in with a comment just so I’ll be the first to post. But I won’t…..

    Let us hope that the expedition members come to their senses soon.

    Ian

  22. Gary says:

    A true sign of intelligence is that something is learned when the facts don’t confirm your bias. Cognitive dissonance can be a useful thing, but only if you really look at it objectively.

  23. P Folkens says:

    An integrity test is in the offing: will they report that the Arctic is wonderfully cold with plenty of thick ice and little or no signs of AGW-induced melting if that is indeed the case? Will they have the integrity to say that maybe all the global warming hype seems a bit exaggerated and the frozen north is not cooperating with predictions of an ice-free Arctic anytime soon?

  24. tetris says:

    Steven
    Looks like the ultimate case of cognitive dissonance to me…

  25. Layman Lurker says:

    The book “Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage” by Alfred Lansing is the most incredible book I have ever read.

  26. Squidly says:

    Incredible… I am in agreement with comments from prior threads on this topic. These folks need to be brought home before they become meatcicles.

  27. But so far not any contemplation of the expedition members about maybe some of the global warming prediction about the artic ice are not correct!?

  28. PaulH says:

    I wonder how Shackleton’s crew would have fared if they had satellite phones and a regular “re-supply” of sleeping bags and the like. ;-) Don’t get me wrong – I’m not questioning the Catlin team’s determination or level of commitment. It’s their “cause” that is silly. But, reality tends to boot idealist’s arses in the end.

  29. D Caldwell says:

    Perhaps there will be a bit of real science contributed by this expedition. I cannot really say.

    However, the greater purpose is obviously to contribute to the advocacy and awareness efforts that now make up a majority of the “climate science” community’s activities.

  30. John H.- 55 says:

    I fail to see how their measurements will have any use whatsoever.
    It doesn’t appear they are going over a previously measured pattern.

    They are randomly measuring?

    Will they be compared to prior measurements?

    I don’t get it.

    What is the point?

    To discover ice and that it’s really cold up there?

  31. Jeff B. says:

    It almost appears that these fools are trying to become martyrs for the cause of AGW alarmism. Death takes all the sport out of it.

  32. Adam Soereg says:

    They must’ve seen the starving polar bears promoted by the AGW camp up there. Why is that I can’t find any post about this so-called ‘fact’ on their blog? Strange, very strange…

    Mr. Goddard,
    I would say you have a very good point here. Spending months on floating ice, in darkness and continuous blizzard conditions with temperatures reaching 40 below zero can be quite disappointing for someone who wants to see catastrophic melting. They have to face these extreme conditions day by day. Maybe after some frostbite, they will thinkt twice about warming is a disaster or not. But what had they expected in the end of Arctic winter? And about their ice thickness measurements, the results will be completely meaningless from a scientific point of view. Firstly, they can’t guarantee an acceptable coverage for their observations. Secondly, at the moment we don’t have any reliable data about average sea ice thickness in the past, so we can’t compare the newly gathered information to anything. However, I can give much more respect to the Catlin Explorers than to Mr. Pugh and his alarmist crew.

    I have to believe that real motivation of these people are quite different from the one represented in the MSM. To prove the shrinkage of the polar ice at this time of the year seems to be nonsense, it must be something else. “Men wanted for Hazardous Journey. [...]Honour and recognition in case of success.”

  33. B Kerr says:

    If you do not mind me saying, that is a rather poor picture of the North Pole.
    Not the North Pole that I want to go to.
    Oh no!

    To me the North Pole should be friendly and have lots and lots of flags were we can hold hands and where we can all put on a yellow Parkas, which we can keep.

    http://www.nathab.com/destinations/index.aspx?pageID=7&tripID=153&action=trip_overview

    Now that is the North Pole.
    None of this silliness about pulling sledges and getting frost bite.

  34. Antonio San says:

    Nature is the biggest denier of all…

    The NSIDC and Walt Meier never answered when challenged about the 30 y average versus their ad-hoc 20 y average. Meier also did not explain why the Arctic sea ice has started to decline specifically from the 1970s, coincidental with the well documented climatic change in atmospheric circulation patterns (Leroux, Favre & Gershunov, Pommier).

    Fortunately the IJIS website provides more objective data (graphs from 2002) and anyone can see that maximum Arctic sea ice doesn’t always translate with less melt. People like Serreze are just pushing their agenda while Meier looks like he is trying to keep his job with such an extremist breathing on his neck.

    As for this Catlin expedition, their media circus is now turning against them and this is justice.

  35. Ray says:

    Eve (09:05:56) :

    From the letter, it is obvious that this big bureaucratic machine won’t move position until the next report. Let’s just hope real science will be incorporated in the next report.

  36. Steven Goddard says:

    From the NSIDC press release:

    the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).

    In other words, the second highest in the last six years – and a 10% increase over the last three years.
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png

    Surprising that NSIDC didn’t mention those minor details.

  37. Roy says:

    I am pretty sure the Catlin team feel they are extreme sportsmen rather than “explorers” or “scientists”. They know perfectly well that any science (whatever it amounts to) could have been done more safely and comfortably if science was the purpose. But it’s not and never was. The test of endurance and flirting with danger is the whole point of their approach. People don’t run marathons to get from A to B; same deal. The “science” is a fig-leaf.

  38. BernardP says:

    Eve, the reply you got from Environment Canada seems to be in large part a form letter. We can be certain that Brian T. Gray, Ph.D. Assistant Deputy Minister is himself a devoted AGW believer. What I know as a Canadian is that PM Stephen Harper used to be a non-believer, but is now running scared of canadian and world opinion on this subject. Remember that publicly displaying skepticism about AGW cost ex-environment minister Rona Ambrose her job.

  39. Steven Goddard says:

    My problem with the value of detailed measurements of ice thickness, is that the state of the ice is the product of a chaotic sequence of vents over many years, particularly due to the effects of wind.

    Since the ability to model wind more than a few days in advance is essentially nil, I don’t see how the detailed measurements they are taking can be particularly useful in modeling the future behaviour of the ice.

    It is similar to equity modeling programs which are based on observed data from the past. They generally are completely useless at forecasting the future.

    Sounds like a good blog topic………

  40. Mark Nodine says:

    FWIW, according to the ASMR-E Sea Ice Extent graph, 2009 appears to have had the earliest maximum ice extent on record. Horrors!

    –Mark

  41. Steven Goddard says:

    When I was younger, I did a number of solo winter backpacking adventures in extreme cold and very deep snow in the mountains. They were all very high risk and I don’t regret having done them.

    I completely respect the crew for their daring exploits, and hope they are as lucky as I was in returning unharmed. Imagine the stories they will tell their grandchildren! Kids love adventure stories.

  42. Ray says:

    That reminds me of pretty much all the episodes of Star Trek where the “scientists” would always die in the process of showing they were right on their “science”.

    Do we have a case of Star Trek Red Uniform Syndrome? (i.e. you could always tell which one would die, because they were always new, and had a red uniform)

  43. Jim Arndt says:

    Gee Grandma how did Grandpa die? He died on the Arctic Ice cap, he froze to death. Why was Grandpa there? He was measuring how thick the ice was there. Why was he doing that? He was studing global warming. Grandma whats “global warming”?

    Seriously these guys need to leave before they do become a footnote.

  44. Smokey says:

    An insufferable quote from the article:

    “Given that it’s so awful, our commitment to the research…”

    These people wouldn’t know ‘research’ if it bit them on the nose.

  45. Aron says:

    There was yet another example of alarmism over the last month whose predictions failed to materialise. Conficker was supposed to hijack millions of computers on April the 1st and start swallowing up loads of bandwidth and messing around with computers. Nothing noticeable happened.

  46. Llanfar says:

    FWIW, according to the ASMR-E Sea Ice Extent graph, 2009 appears to have had the earliest maximum ice extent on record. Horrors!

    http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=28#15179

    ron?

  47. AnonyMoose says:

    Team’s equipment designer expects the ice to be gone in a few years. Did he design equipment which can handle thick old ice?

  48. Perry Debell says:

    D Caldwell (09:47:25) :

    OT, but your name is a famous one amongst British mariners of WW2.

    http://www.uboat.net/allies/warships/ship/4292.html

    The CO when the ship was disabled in the Atlantic was Lt.Cdr. Eric Morrison Mackay, DSC, RD, RNR who went on to command HMS Braithwaite.

    http://www.uboat.net/allies/warships/ship/5647.html

    The full stories of both ships were recorded in the book “Yankee RN” by an American who joined the Royal Navy before Pearl Harbour.

    http://www.antiqbook.co.uk/boox/lbw/043919.shtml

    Regards,

    Perry

  49. are you lookin at me, pal? says:

    Antonio San (10:19:05) :

    In response to my question some time ago to NSIDC:

    “Has anyone published a narrative explanation of the entire sea ice satellite record from 1978 onwards, and what has caused the year to year variations, presumably a combination of oceanographic and meteorological factors.”

    I received the reply:

    “The following paragraphs were provided by NSIDC’s sea ice scientist, Walt Meier. I thought this might be helpful to you. In general sense, no, no one has published a detailed narrative explanation of the entire sea ice record from 1978 onwards. That’s because scientifically, it’s not particularly interesting. Short term year-to-year variations are mostly influenced by seasonal weather variation – warm summers tend yield lower extents, etc. – that are pretty clear and don’t yield any particular insights. Where the interesting things happen is most notably the long-term changes, about which there have been many many papers written.”

    I still think that a description of the year to year variations is a worthwhile project. Anyone got a graduate student looking for a project?

  50. Gary Turner says:

    tallbloke (08:52:15) wrote:

    … and that they get thei new sleeping bags issued with the vapour barriers they should have taken in the first place. As a seasoned cold weather backpacker, it seems to me that by deciding against taking them, they were making an assumption that the daytime sunlight and temperatures would be sufficient to dry the bags.

    The thing is, in weather as cold as they’re experiencing, there is no reason to climb into a wet sleeping bag, or clothes, for that matter. Lay the bag out, fully open. All the water will freeze. Then you beat the ice out as you would whisk a rug to remove the dirt. Been there, done that, don’t plan to do it again.

    cheers,

    gary

  51. Brian Johnson says:

    Pen Hadow led the countdown to a global switch off that did not register on Power Company gauges! Big deal!

    THe whole expedition is a waste of money/time/effort as they can’t seem to do anything but hype up the negative side of them being there!

    Next time do some proper cold weather survival research to avoid looking like total amateurs.

  52. Andrew says:

    I have a feeling this is all a setup so Big Al can swoop in at the last second in a helicopter (that is leaking fuel), lower a rope, and rescue them.

    He’ll fire off a couple of rockets from his shoulder-mounted rocket launcher on approach to scare off the Mean Polar Bears (no animal will actually be harmed) even though he has a shoulder wound from a cool fight he had in some exotic bar a few hours earlier.

    Of course, the ice will have a giant advancing crack in it that is headed right for the expedition that destroys their campsite seconds after they have vacated.

    B.A. and The Face Man will be waiting back at headquarters for the mandatory closing sequence where everybody has a good laugh about the whole thing.

    (I apologize to everyone in advance for this, but it practically wrote itself. I couldn’t stop)

    Andrew

  53. Smokey says:

    Interesting deconstruction of Gore’s stranded Polar bears: click

  54. OilIsMastery says:

    Photographic evidence that the pole has shifted.

  55. Ray says:

    Smokey (11:49:32) :

    yeah, how inconvenient for him!!!

  56. kent says:

    2007 and 2008 were both years of low minimum Arctic sea ice.

    Nasa admits it was wrong about the cause, wind and sea currents moved the sea ice out of the Arctic.

    2007 is when the PDO switched from it’s warm phase to it’s cold phase. Did this cause the switch in wind direction?

    It looks like the Atlantic has switched to it’s cool phase a few years early.

    What concerns me is that 2009 will give us another low minimum.
    The more open sea water that is exposed to sub freezing temperatures the more cooling of the world’s oceans.
    Thicker multi-year sea ice restricts the flow of ocean heat thus contributing to more warming.

  57. pkatt says:

    I have a goofy question… why are we still seeing an ocean algae bloom in the artic ice pictures.. is that for real or do they put the info over a stock picture.. If it is for real, anyone know why there has been an algae bloom all winter? Is that unusual for the area?

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.bandw.000.png

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.bandw.001.png

  58. Shawn Whelan says:

    Like a hundred years ago Amundsen figured out how to travel in relative comfort in these conditions. A hundred years later this is a giant step backwards. Has global warming fried their brains?

    These people would die if they attempted John Rea or Amundsen’s feats.

  59. Ric Werme says:

    DJKP (08:01:16) :

    > Someone please remind me again why we cant get these measurements via satellite?

    Let me turn your question around:

    What satellite-based sensing system can be used to measure Ice Cap thickness?

    If your answer is radar, then I would suggest that any satellite-based radar would have such a wide beam that it would be impossible to distinguish between the reflections off the top of the ice and those at the bottom. The ground based radar Catlin is dragging along has a much easier time (when it’s not being hauled over a pressure ridge!) because all it sees is the bottom.

    The drilling they do help provide a double-check and also helps deals with the highly textured ice bottom. At least, I assume it’s highly textured.

  60. MartinGAtkins says:

    [snip - none of that here, we want them to come home safe - Anthony]

  61. Magnus says:

    John H: “I fail to see how their measurements will have any use whatsoever. It doesn’t appear they are going over a previously measured pattern.”

    Here is how the ice moves, also during the winters:

    http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/images/20070822_oldice.gif

    The idea may be that several years of data at a route approximately at the same longitude and latitude positions meanwhile the ice (in the agw saga) shrinks year by year was thought to be helpful in this modern (post modern?) “mobilize-concern-for” political science?

  62. Freezedried says:

    Anyone think that maybe the whole thing is a scam and when they get back they will write a book along the lines of “How We Tricked the Geeenies and Proved the Arctic Isn’t Melting”.

  63. D Caldwell says:

    Perry Debell (11:34:56) :

    Perry, many thanks for the heads up on that. I did not know the RN had a vessel named Caldwell. Reading that she was scrapped in ’44 made me shiver a bit.

    Our branch of the Caldwells has been in the States for several generations. By tradition we were told our ancestors were from a village in Scotland named Cold Well. I have never actually checked on it since we cannot trace our family back far enough to find who actually immigrated or when.

    I do know that I’ve always liked the sound of bagpipes. :)

  64. Dermot Carroll says:

    perhaps the objective is to show how easy it is to travel this journey today compered to years past, or not to be able to complete the journey at all, because of thin or broken ice. So maybe they shall return as skeptics?

  65. Bob Wood says:

    “Stupidly cold temperatures?” Must have been a slip of the tongue! Seems they are having a hard time reconciling what they feel with what they believe.

  66. Richard deSousa says:

    “The team covered a staggering 16.7km today, the biggest distance achieved to date. By covering so much distance since the last resupply (134.5km in 13 days), the team have observed the ice they are crossing is getting significantly older and thicker“

    I think “staggering” around would be a good description of their condition soon… duh… it’s supposed to be cold in the Arctic.

    One more thing… the Google World photo of the Arctic in Catlin’s website showing their progress is dead wrong… the actual ice pack is way larger. That photo must have been taken during last summer.

  67. Mark T says:

    Ideologues fall on their own swords regularly. This is no different. Maybe, just maybe, some of them will come back with a fresh perspective on what the concept of rational thought means and why blindly following any ideology can lead to disaster.

    Mark

  68. hotrod says:

    On March 30, the National Snow and Ice Data Center published its report on the 2008-2009 Arctic ice maximum.

    “On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).”

    Hmmm lets see or we could express the situation as:

    On February 28 this years maximum Arctic sea ice extent, reached 95.25% of the 1979-2000 average maximum, due to record re-freeze rates this winter. The Arctic sea ice extent appears to be recovering quickly from its recent record lows and is more resilient that many expected.

    Which sounds like the more dire way of expressing the situation?

    Larry

  69. James Griffin says:

    Love the word “stupidly” cold…..the word should actually relate to the person saying it.
    From a previous article we understand that the locals can’t believe that anyone would wish to map the breaking up of the sea ice before May.

  70. Aron (11:19:54) sez: “There was yet another example of alarmism over the last month whose predictions failed to materialise. Conficker was supposed to hijack millions of computers on April the 1st and start swallowing up loads of bandwidth and messing around with computers. Nothing noticeable happened.

    Right. I, for one, had absogrutebly no probblmx whxtsoxvxr witx Cxnfxckxr. A fnurger exmpl of algarmisk z[pins]as iero glazhm vwjkloh prgi eowfiep…

  71. Dave Andrews says:

    Hang on, isn’t there some kind of disconnect going on here with the Catlin survey?

    A while back they were saying how awful everything was and detailing the tribulations they were going through. By now Martin’s “frostbite” must have turned into a really serious situation. But they are still soldiering on and Pen Hadow gave an upbeat report to the BBC Radio 4 science programme this afternoon.

    This whole thing ‘smells’ to me.

  72. GaryB says:

    DJKP (08:01:16) said :

    Someone please remind me again why we cant get these measurements via satellite?

    Because they are in all likelihood being funded for doing what they are doing. Just as the funding sources of many “scientists” continues to depend on their pushing this human-induced global warming scare. If they could find a way to receive funding for debunking the whole idea, they’d be on that in a second and their entire viewpoint would do a quick 180.

  73. D. King says:

    I’m glad to see that their technology is robust enough, so
    it may be held together by rubber bands and tape!

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/technology

    I think next time; they should test and calibrate it by dragging
    it up the temple steps of Kukulkan, Chichen Itza.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/Chichen-Itza_El_Castillo.jpg

  74. Robert Wood says:

    John Egan @08:45:52

    You provide a classic example of an alarmist scientific statement. By using this “xth warmest in Y years” approach makes it always seem desperately hot.

    But “10th warmest could also be described, given the data set, as the MOST COLD”. What description serves the propaganda best?

    “1998 was the warmest year in the US since 1935″ …. but 1934 was warmer.

  75. Robert Wood says:

    Eve @09:05:56

    I was doing work connected to Enviroment Canada, or whatever it was called at the time, on satellite image processing. The government project manager actually said to us that the main focus now (this was almost 20 years ago) was “climate change”.

    This is the teat that provides the milk for a thousand buureaucratic “scientists”. They knew what htey were doing. They are being self-serving and, basically, lacking in a little integrity. These were not stupid people.

  76. brianmcl says:

    How about this gem from today:

    “The ice has been particularly active again today, so much so that during an impromptu photo-shoot between Pen and Martin, Ann had to raise the alarm as the ice they were standing broke away and started to disintegrate. The photo-shoot ended as abruptly as it had started and the team continued on their way.”

    Given that they claim the temperature is -35degC will they at least admit that it isn’t global warming that’s breaking up the ice?

  77. Robert Wood says:

    Rather than standing around in circles holding hands, I prefer a more muscular approach to the North Pole

    http://www.captainscomments.com/images/637-NP1987.jpg

    And note, the ice … the ice … it’s …. it’s … melting!! In 1987! OMG!!

    As a cold-water scuba diver, I have a thing for dive machines at the North Pole. It’s a very busy place!!!

  78. Robert Wood says:

    OK My last posting on this thread – hey, it’s my entertainment :-)

    Being Canadian, I can make the simple statement:

    Ice Bad. Warm Good.

    Why would anyone want to prevent mild warming? (Rhetorical question; I know these people are comfortable, middle-class suburbanites who live where it rarely gets cold) They clearly don’t live in Canada.

  79. Antonio San says:

    Did anyone read this one…

    By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer Randolph E. Schmid, Ap Science Writer – 1 hr 2 mins ago
    WASHINGTON – Arctic sea ice is melting so fast most of it could be gone in 30 years. A new analysis of changing conditions in the region, using complex computer models of weather and climate, says conditions that had been forecast by the end of the century could occur much sooner.
    A change in the amount of ice is important because the white surface reflects sunlight back into space. When ice is replaced by dark ocean water that sunlight can be absorbed, warming the water and increasing the warming of the planet.
    The finding adds to concern about climate change caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, a problem that has begun receiving more attention in the Obama administration and is part of the G20 discussions under way in London.
    “Due to the recent loss of sea ice, the 2005-2008 autumn central Arctic surface air temperatures were greater than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above” what would be expected, the new study reports.
    That amount of temperature increase had been expected by the year 2070.
    The new report by Muyin Wang of the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean and James E. Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, appears in Friday’s edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
    They expect the area covered by summer sea ice to decline from about 2.8 million square miles normally to 620,000 square miles within 30 years.
    Last year’s summer minimum was 1.8 million square miles in September, second lowest only to 2007 which had a minimum of 1.65 million square miles, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
    The Center said Arctic sea ice reached its winter maximum for this year at 5.8 million square miles on Feb. 28. That was 278,000 square miles below the 1979-2000 average making it the fifth lowest on record. The six lowest maximums since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years.
    Overland and Wang combined sea-ice observations with six complex computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reach their conclusions. Combining several computer models helps avoid uncertainties caused by natural variability.
    Much of the remaining ice would be north of Canada and Greenland, with much less between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic.
    “The Arctic is often called the Earth’s refrigerator because the sea ice helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun’s radiation back into space,” Wang said in a statement. “With less ice, the sun’s warmth is instead absorbed by the open water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.”
    The study was supported by the NOAA Climate Change Program Office, the Institute for the Study of the Ocean and Atmosphere and the U.S. Department of Energy.”

    It never ends… but last year North pole was supposed to be free of Ice by 2015… Hilarious no?

  80. geo says:

    Does the tech actually not exist to measure ice depth from orbit, or does it exist but it hasn’t been put in orbit? I’m sort of thinking of some sonar stuff that has been done to “look beneath the sands” of the Sahara, but I don’t know if it would be applicable here.

  81. Ray says:

    Robert Wood (15:11:02) :

    Think of the nightmare it will be when we will be forced to move down in the States when the glaciers arrive.

  82. Art says:

    Carl Zimmer, writing at Discover blog, is attacking George Will again. “George Will, Now With Misleading Links” states:

    One of the more egregious lines from George Will’s recent columns on global warming is the claim that real data shows that warnings about a rise in the average global temperature are wrong. He writes: “According to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, there has been no recorded global warming for more than a decade.”

    The secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization himself, Michael Jarraud, decided he had to write to the Washington Post to tell them George Will is wrong.

    Follow the link for Jarraud’s letter.

  83. Antonio San says:

    A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

    “A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?
    Muyin Wang

    Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

    James E. Overland

    Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA

    September 2008 followed 2007 as the second sequential year with an extreme summer Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Although such a sea ice loss was not indicated until much later in the century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report, many models show an accelerating decline in the summer minimum sea ice extent during the 21st century. Using the observed 2007/2008 September sea ice extents as a starting point, we predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037. The first quartile of the distribution for the timing of September sea ice loss will be reached by 2028. Our analysis is based on projections from six IPCC models, selected subject to an observational constraints. Uncertainty in the timing of a sea ice free Arctic in September is determined based on both within‐model contributions from natural variability and between‐model differences.

    Received 6 February 2009; accepted 5 March 2009; published 3 April 2009.

    Citation: Wang, M., and J. E. Overland (2009), A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. ”

    That’s real fast tracking isn’t it? Especially considering this looks like a re-hash of their 2007 similar paper…

  84. Mike Strong says:

    Slightly off topic, but within the past couple of hours, the NSICD finally updated the trend graphs for the Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Trends to include data through March 2009… compared to the holy grail 1979-2000 “average” (which excludes 2001-2008 data in the averaging, of course…which is my constant gripe that they throw out 30% of the data since 1979 when calculating the average (mean).

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

    Arctic now at -2.7% per decade (last month it was trending at -2.8% and last year it was -11% per decade)

    Antarctic now trending up at +4.7% per decade, up from +2.8% through February.

    Nice recovery going, eh?

  85. Ron de Haan says:

    Big win in favor of Climate Skeptic views on Cap % Trade thanks to the Thune Amendment:

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/dems_failure_to_fast_track_cap.html

    See also http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/the-thune-amendment-5096

    The Thune Amendment
    April 1st, 2009

    Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

    “The ability of Congressional legislation on cap and trade to result in actual emissions reductions was dealt a serious blow yesterday. An Amendment was introduced by Senator John Thune (R-SD) on the Budget Resolution and its text is as follows:

    To amend the deficit-neutral reserve fund for climate change legislation to require that such legislation does not increase electricity or gasoline prices.

    What is this? Climate change legislation cannot increase electricity or gasoline prices? The entire purpose of cap and trade is in fact to increase the costs of carbon-emitting sources of energy, which dominate US energy consumption. The Thune Amendment thus undercuts the entire purpose of cap and trade.

    What was the vote on the Thune Amendment? 89-8 in favor of the Amendment, 48 Democrats and 41 Republicans. Only 8 members of the Senate were willing to go on record saying that they support the purpose of a cap and trade bill, to make carbon-emitting energy more expensive. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) voted for the Thune Amendment had this to say:

    Any kind of cap-and-trade system that comes forward will not raise energy and gas prices.

    The Thune Amendment effectively kills cap and trade as a mechanism for reducing emissions. I have little doubt that the legislation will go forward, and it likely will pass in some form and do many things. Its just that reducing emissions won’t be among them. Cap and trade is dead, but the charade will go on.

    For those who may be wondering, this post is not an April Fools Joke”.

    This amandment has two major effects:

    1. It put a big bomb under the Obama Budget.

    2. It puts a big bomb under the UN Climate Congress in Copenhagen planned for December 2009.

    I thank America for this act of sanity in difficult times.

    Hopefully Obama and his clan of “Super Greenies” get to their senses and back off from renewed attempts to cash in on biggest scam in history.

  86. philincalifornia says:

    Maybe someone could e-mail this to them, then they can come home and get warm. It’s from the Guardian even. (Apologies mods, if I shouldn’t have posted it twice – I thought it was important enough to put the link in the Tipping Point thread also). AGW RIP.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/03/g20-gordon-brown-global-economy

    “The transatlantic compromise between America and Europe led to a jump in shares in London and New York. The FTSE index closed up more than 4% at 4,124.97. The deal won praise from business leaders, as well as anti-poverty campaigners, but dismayed the green lobby with its lack of measures to combat climate change.

    British government officials lost their battle to include a commitment to spend a substantial share of the economic stimulus on low-carbon recovery projects.

    Vague low-carbon language and climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December were relegated to two paragraphs at the communique’s end.”

  87. Ron de Haan says:

    The Australian Government also hits a wall of opposition on cap and tax:
    http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2009/04/cap-and-tax-dead-in-us-aussie-senates.html

  88. R Campbell says:

    I just came across this article on AOL. Is this the same team? I seems they are using panties as a wind sock to navigate their way north.

    http://www.lemondrop.com/2009/04/01/lacy-undies-save-the-day-for-arctic-explorers/?icid=main|htmlws-main-c1|dl5|link5|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lemondrop.com%2F2009%2F04%2F01%2Flacy-undies-save-the-day-for-arctic-explorers%2F

  89. Gary Pearse says:

    Cryosphere Today in its March 30th statement on the 2009 maximum ice extent describes it as the 5th lowest extent of the satellite record! Since the “consensus” was surprised by 2008’s and 2009’s expanded extent it is patently dishonest to report it this way. Surely if 2010 rebounds further it would be getting to be a stretch to say it is the sixth lowest, and so on. Even if one believes it to be temporary, one should not fear to state that the ice has rebounded the last two years. One can see that even if New York Harbour and the Bosphorus freezes up next year, they will simply rank the year as part of the AGW trend.

  90. deepslope says:

    Thanks, Aron for posting this:

    Aron (08:11:24) :

    “The latest attempt to denigrate dissenters – http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/apr/01/climate-change-sceptics?commentpage=1&commentposted=1

    I checked this Simon Singh missive (where he slanders skeptics as ‘numpties’) and offered this:

    “truegreenredneck – 02 Apr 09, 11:38pm (about 1 hour ago)

    how can one take somebody seriously who writes:

    “But what about those who still do not believe in climate change? Who are they and how can they be persuaded to see sense?”

    Climate Change is not a matter of belief – it always happens, sometimes slowly, at other times faster and occasionally abruptly, catastrophically. Climate realists argue that CO2 is a minor driver of climate change based on well-established facts and that Kyoto-type agreements won’t make an iota of difference other than fattening the delegates, politicians, ENGOs and the main stream media pundits that attend and report on the sit-ins in Bali, Poznan and Copenhagen. The global tax payer is being ruined by the apocalyptic orgy of adherents of the “hot air” cult.

    In short: Climate realists (AGW skeptics) do have a great deal of sense and don’t need to be shown the light by disingenuous numpties like Simon Singh.

  91. 3x2 says:

    I begin to wonder about the timing of this expedition. If they were supposed to send back endless reports of melting ice and the end of the Arctic as we know it wouldn’t waiting a month or two for the break-up have been a better idea.

    Were they supposed to get out onto the ice just as the break-up was due to start and the weather just hasn’t cooperated?

    Either way it looks for the moment as though all they are proving is that the Arctic is a seriously cold place and not a playground. Not, I suspect, what the armchair environmentalists wanted to see.

    The worry here is that the team will feel pressured not to let Guardian readers everywhere down by leaving and getting back to safety. It was clear from the preamble that the “mission” was to prove that GW was destroying the Arctic. Having to leave because it is -50ºC, becoming very dangerous and you can’t find any evidence hardly furthers “the cause”. On the other hand neither does getting killed.

    Lets hope they make the right choice.

  92. John F. Hultquist says:

    @(15:03:03) Robert Wood posted a link to a photo of subs visiting the North Pole, dated 18 May 1987.
    Two others can be found here: http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08664.htm

    But not that one! That one is used here:
    http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
    This John Daly post has other interesting photos of subs at the NP on different dates, along with other images. An interesting read.

  93. Steve Hempell says:

    OT, but Roy Spencer has a good explanation of the greenhouse effect on his website.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/04/in-defense-of-the-greenhouse-effect/

  94. fred says:

    Am I missing something? I cannot find a lat/long of their position. Surely that would be the most basic data to publish.

    I do see where they say they have made 182 kilometers in 33 days, leaving an estimated 752 kilometers to the Pole.

    Slow going. According to their “100 day” schedule they expected to be there by early June. I’m sure things will pick up as Spring arrives, but this seems like a slow start.

  95. Bill Illis says:

    I think we need to remember this is “Business” to the participants as well.

    Anne is a motivational speaker.

    Pen is also on the speaking tour.

    Martin is an Arctic photographer and presumably getting paid for the journey.

    They have to stay out as long as possible (and hope that the weather changes) or many future bucks will be lost.

    As Martin and Pen have said “there is 20 million other things they would rather be doing”, but there is also 20 million in future earnings at stake if tomorrow the weather changes and they make it all the way to the north pole.

    Just think of the motivational speaking notes that are being written right now (versus thrown in the garbage if they have to give up).

    And there is substantial advertising and sponsorship funds on their jackets and on the sleds and on the website.

  96. John F. Hultquist says:

    This ice post inspires the following: Let’s assume that at some point in the future the Arctic ice does open up, and also, that that might be bad for polar bears. Some have suggested that in contrast to trying to alter climate via GHG reductions direct action to combat problems would be a better approach.
    Next it is thought there is a lot of plastic floating around, and around, in the oceans. Also, some fish stocks are thought to be declining and this, presumably, will lead to underutilized ships and crew.
    So, why not retrofit these ships to take on floating-ocean-plastic and process it into ice berg-like shapes to be dropped at appropriate locations as polar bear habitat?
    A side benefit of this is that the plastic will not have to be disposed of on land. And even if the ice never melts, we have still gotten the plastic out of the ocean gyres, and if fitted with a tracking device could help monitor ice movements. What’s not to love?

  97. Tim Channon says:

    “What satellite-based sensing system can be used to measure Ice Cap thickness?”

    altimeter… the ice is floating, thicker ice, more above ocean mean

  98. AKD says:


    Bill Illis (17:21:20) :

    I think we need to remember this is “Business” to the participants as well.

    Anne is a motivational speaker.

    Pen is also on the speaking tour.

    Martin is an Arctic photographer and presumably getting paid for the journey.

    They have to stay out as long as possible (and hope that the weather changes) or many future bucks will be lost.

    As Martin and Pen have said “there is 20 million other things they would rather be doing”, but there is also 20 million in future earnings at stake if tomorrow the weather changes and they make it all the way to the north pole.

    Just think of the motivational speaking notes that are being written right now (versus thrown in the garbage if they have to give up).

    And there is substantial advertising and sponsorship funds on their jackets and on the sleds and on the website.

    Theme for tonight’s motivational talk: believing in yourself, just like believing in climate change, can take you anywhere you want to go.

  99. Ozzie John says:

    Obviuusly Al Gore did not get his message across !

    If they had waited 5 more years they could have sailed or paddled to an ice free pole and avoided all this discomfort.

  100. Just Want Truth... says:

    Sooo, it was made to look that they were in dire straights just a week ago. But they’re still there. So, maybe the dire straights were exaggerations for effect? There’s a lot of exaggeration in AGW already—why not a little more.

    But maybe I’m jaded.

  101. Mike Bryant says:

    Wow, two motivational speakers and a photographer exploring the Arctic!
    I’m getting motivated just thinking about their upcoming seminars! I hope Ann and Pen take Martin with them to the seminar to take the pictures. It would be so fine to have a picture with Pen and Ann taken by Martin. I better take lots of money.
    I sure hope they get back ok…
    Mike

  102. Robert Bateman says:

    Instead of the 3 stooges go on a Sunday hike to the North Pole, they should have sent 3 Arctic Rovers and gotten some consistent data. They could use the Arctic Rovers year after year. All they have to do is ask the Mars Rover team.
    No, they had to send Larry, Curlie, and Moe.

  103. Robert Bateman says:

    You can send in a helicopter to fix a busted Rover. You have to send the coroner for a frozen Arctic Wanderer.
    Dumb move: recently they chose to jump over a narrow passage instead of putting on thier exposure suits. The haste to make up for lost time will take it’s toll. Dulled senses.

  104. Graeme Rodaughan says:

    Ron de Haan (15:53:51) :

    I thank America for this act of sanity in difficult times.

    Hopefully Obama and his clan of “Super Greenies” get to their senses and back off from renewed attempts to cash in on biggest scam in history.

    Ron – I expect them to continue fighting until their political careers are kaput. Don’t underestimate their commitment to the cause…

  105. navedz says:

    stupidity, arrogance and ignorant nature of human being is destroying the planet and its environment. its a shame for this current civilization!

  106. Phil. says:

    Tim Channon (17:33:54) :
    “What satellite-based sensing system can be used to measure Ice Cap thickness?”

    altimeter… the ice is floating, thicker ice, more above ocean mean

    Yes it’s called ‘freeboard’ and it has been applied to estimation of ice thickness, see:
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.C11B0418F
    Presumably the results from the current expedition can be used for comparison with the freeboard measurements.
    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200804_Figure6.png

  107. David L. Hagen says:

    DJKP, Ric
    A few abstracts on using satellites to measure sea ice thickness:
    Validating Satellite Radar Altimetry Estimates of Antarctic sea ice Thickness Using the ASPeCt Data set Giles, K. A.; Laxon, S. W.; Worby, T. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #C52A-07

    Comparison of ICESat Data With Airborne Laser Altimeter Measurements Over Arctic Sea Ice, Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Krabill, W.; Miller, J.; Sonntag, J.

    The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the NASA Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) can monitor the third dimension of the earth, its height, with unprecedented accuracy. Recent studies suggest that the precision of ICESat is sufficient to provide useful information on the thickness of sea ice as well.

    ICESat Laser Altimetry over the Arctic Ocean: Recent Sea Ice Results, Farrell, S. L.; Laxon, S. W.; McAdoo, D. C.; Zwally, J.; Yi, D. Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #C31E-0568

    Since laser altimetric surface reflections over sea ice are assumed to originate from the air/snow interface, snow depth is included in the freeboard signal. We present a time-series of sea ice freeboard, which reveals a downward trend over a five-year period from February 2003 to March 2008. We investigate the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea ice freeboard and analyze any changes in basin-scale average sea ice freeboard in light of the record sea ice minimum extent set in September 2007.

    Impact of Freeboard and Snow Depth Variability on Satellite Altimetric Sea Ice Thickness Retrievals
    AU: * Kurtz, N T et al. Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract # C14A-03

    eter is also presented and is shown to be capable of providing a more detailed measure of the sea ice thickness distribution.

    In principle, Radar/Microwaves can reflect off both top and bottom of the ice. There is a challenge of sufficient sensitivity and the variations in atmospheric transit time.

    See also the special collection:
    Large-Scale Characteristics of the Sea Ice Cover From AMSR-E and Other Satellite Sensors Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 113, no. C2, 2008

  108. cableguy says:

    My vote for Quote of the Week (humor):
    Aron (11:19:54) sez: “There was yet another example of alarmism over the last month whose predictions failed to materialise. Conficker was supposed to hijack millions of computers on April the 1st and start swallowing up loads of bandwidth and messing around with computers. Nothing noticeable happened.”

    Right. I, for one, had absogrutebly no probblmx whxtsoxvxr witx Cxnfxckxr. A fnurger exmpl of algarmisk z[pins]as iero glazhm vwjkloh prgi eowfiep…

  109. I believe in global warming to a certain extent.Because Al Gore made a fortune out of speeches made on the theme ,when he had a monstrous bill for heating and illuminating his own house(mansion) of about $30.000 USD per month ?
    My believe is deviated from the pure fact and I do affirm that we might cry,
    after this global warming if we, as a global specie will be confronted in the opposite direction ,with a global cooling and winters that seems a Never Ending Story, in places with previously mild temperature like the state of Delaware or Virginia.What if…?Would Al Gore still say the same thing ?Or he would turn around into the biggest promoter of the Dangerously Global Cooling…for a buck or two! And a fatal era to fragile humans beings,will begin.The real beginning for THE END.Thank you for attention.

  110. Mike Bryant says:

    Navedz,
    You, sir, are incorrect. Corrupt science is destroying the civilization while the environment of earth moves along it’s path. A man must know his limitations.
    Mike

  111. Graeme Rodaughan says:

    navedz (19:13:53) :

    stupidity, arrogance and ignorant nature of human being is destroying the planet and its environment. its a shame for this current civilization!

    naedz – One could also argue that “stupidity, arrogance and ignorant nature of human being” is poised to extinguish the light of freedom and individual empowerment that sits at the heart of Western Civilization, which would be a shame for humanity.

    As for “destroying the planet and its environment” – The planet is perfectly capable of repairing itself of any “damage” that humanity might do – you overestimate our power.

  112. Laurence Kirk says:

    It is interesting to reflect that once the usual galciated climate of the Northern Hemisphere finally re-stablishes itself, as it inevitably will, these will the normal conditions experienced by the average man or woman in the street. Not that there will be a street.

  113. Robert Bateman says:

    Yep. The Sun will keep on doing what a G2V star will do. And the Earth will continue to whizz around the Sun. The bugs & bacteria will replace the climate thugs and hysteria. In 100,000 yrs. there will be no trace left of man on Earth, save a few more fossils, and the biggest fossil of all, the gold medal that hung on the neck of the Goreacle.
    Beep…Beep….Beep… hey ! I got a good ring over here on my metal detector.
    Cool, couple oz of gold. Dadgum mosquitoes are bad on this planet. Let’s get the last of the animals unloaded out of the crates and get out of here. Place gives me the creeps. Can’t wait to get back home to the good old Mars.

  114. hengav says:

    Since it has been sunny up there recently the best veiwing of the ice is in the 3-6-7 bands

    http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009092/crefl1_367.A2009092222500-2009092223000.1km.jpg

    Some pretty funky patterns in the ice to watch. The ice is shearing in 2 directions. No “open” water still to be seen.

  115. MA says:

    3×2 (16:24:24). I agree. I guess they didn’t prepared for this low temperatures and blizzards. Also they may have missed the natural movement of the ice which for a time diminished progress. If the average 5.5 km per day continues they have about 100 days left. In late July they will reach their goal, but how much ice disintegration will they have to struggle with? If they survive these days I guess they may cancel the whole thing according to severe ice disintegration due to man made GW. Graaasp.

    Such a crying about ice disintegration may well be reported as a scientific achievement in the (utterly stupid) media (for its utterly stupid readers?).

    This guess I am completely wrong (I use to be that), but if not and if it’s spinned that way I guess globalwarmers like Al Gore will immediately refer to it as proof of warming, so that critics from flat earthers are neutralized.

    Global warm spin is real. It’s happening. Right now!

  116. MA says:

    Correction: “This guess may be completely wrong……….”

  117. Bruce Cobb says:

    navedz (19:13:53) :

    stupidity, arrogance and ignorant nature of human being is destroying the planet and its environment. its a shame for this current civilization!

    Undoubtedly, we as a species do need to be more aware of our environment. Pollution and environmental destruction is a big problem, but is much worse in some parts of the world than in others. In general, it is tied to economics, though. Wealth tends to equate with lowered pollution, so poverty is the real enemy, not just of the environment of course, but of man. But here is where stupidity, ignorance, arrogance, as well as greed (probably the biggest factor) come in. Those particular human factors are presently very much in play with what might be called Gaiaism, a pseudo-concern for the earth particularly with respect to a mythical, and fraudulent idea that we humans are heating the planet up by raising it’s level of C02 level. And that, my friend, is what we here are attempting to do battle with since, ironically, that lie has the power to do more harm not just to mankind, but to the environment and our planet than anything else.

  118. Geoff Sherrington says:

    Here are some references to annual temperature anomaly graphs before they were “adjusted” by USA experts.

    Mawson base, Antarctica
    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Mawsonannualtempanomaly.jpg?t=1238761308

    Macquarie Island, between Australia and the Antarctic, obviously influenced by UHI, Tobs, Filnet, rising sea level, hot bird action and ocean current changes.

    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Macquariegraph.jpg?t=1238761491

    A picture is worth a thousand peer-reviewed words.

  119. jon says:

    This site provides sea ice data for Canadian waters (since 1971):

    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph/IceGraph-GraphdesGlaces.jsf

  120. Knight Blue says:

    Good aquaintance,

    Indeed Global warming is an issue that deserves immediate attention.
    One would become very amazed with the upsurge of this issue, mildly contemplating as to why the sudden interest in Global warming. Indeed, many people are ignorant, choose to remain ignorant and take shelter of ignorance in this hazardous scenario. However as our age progresses, so would the destructive forces of evil. Knowledge is the sword in which we must slay this ignorance. When a child puts his/her finger in FIRE, the fire doesnt decide, “Oh this is a child, I wont burn him/her” No, certainly the fire would burn. Therefore ignorance iof Gods Law is no excuse. But there is relief. The ancient vedic scripture, assures that this age of evil (Kali) lasts for 432,000 years. Since approx. 5,000 years have past, we have a remainder of 427,000 years left for this age. Our scientists think that by creating new technology, they are advancing. But instead they are harming the environment. They develop atomic bombs that kill millions of their fellow men, and think they are advancing. The politicians (asses) cheat people for their vote, and spend billions that could feed the hungry on military weapons. So we can see that this age is full of sudras (4th class men).
    We must endeavor to good nonetheless and protect mother earth and mother nature. It is the duty of the child to protect the mother. This protection is recipricative. In doing so, we would be justly fulfilling our duties, develop divine qualities, gain intelligence and advance spiritually.

  121. MartinGAtkins says:

    Let’s hope they don’t freeze to death or get eaten by polar bears. It would be simply awful if their if the bones were picked clean by arctic foxes and spread all over the polar ice cap.

  122. Mike Bryant says:

    “Knight Blue (06:37:21) :
    Good aquaintance,
    Indeed Global warming is an issue that deserves immediate attention…
    Therefore ignorance iof Gods Law is no excuse. But there is relief. The ancient vedic scripture, assures that this age of evil (Kali) lasts for 432,000 years.”

    It’s always good to see that those in the AGW camp are not hindered by religion. Also good to know that we must only wait for 432,000 years for good to triumph.

  123. David J Ameling says:

    Steve Hempell 16:45:55

    OT Dr Roy Spencer post explaining the greenhouse effect.

    It would be nice if Anthony posted this so it could be discussed.

    Spencer’s explaination is quite clear until he uses the term “blanketing effect”. This term definitely applies to liquids and solids but does it apply to GHG molecules. Clouds which contain water droplets definitely delay the atmosphere’s cooling. Smudge pots give off particulate matter that definitely delay cooling. These droplets and particles absurb most of the radiation they receive. They transfer heat to the atmosphere by collision etc. How do GHGs do this?

    But this is off topic.

  124. MA says:

    Peter. Yes, there are thousands of web pages dedicated Wilkins. I’m glad you found one and linked it here! ;-) But there are not that many dedicated to the rest of Antarctica, which gains ice so that Antarctica have a net gain of ice. (Wingham, Bengtsson etc.)

    Also the West Antarctica will “collapse” very very slowly in several thousand years of time if (and only if) water temperatures around the ice increases with between 7 and 9 degeres F. You can read more about this study here:
    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/18/study-west-antarctic-melt-a-slow-affair

    This isn’t that big threat to us, as you can see.

    Br, Magnus

  125. Mike says:

    No kidding the poles are freezing cold. Is it a surprise to find out the ice is thick? Goddard is thicker- I’ll say that.

  126. Knight Blue says:

    Good aquaintance “Mike Bryant”

    “It’s always good to see that those in the AGW camp are not hindered by religion. Also good to know that we must only wait for 432,000 years for good to triumph”

    “Religion without science is sentiment..Science without religion is mental speculation”-Srila Prabhupad. Religion has its place in society. It is not a hinderance. It is systematic and supportive. It helps with the general morale and ethics that regulate the vices of desire. I must correct that we need to follow proper authority, otherwise it would be simply speculation. You must follow authority. This is important.

    Now, I would like to thank you for reading my article sir, and must dutily clarify. “there is relief”- line 10, word 6, refers to relief from global annihilation due to the global warming situation. It does not refer to a time period of wait. I have mentioned 427,000 years left, not 432,000 years. This is bonafide scriptural authority. This period is simply to indicate that our human species will survive this age.

    Good truimphs over evil all the time. Even at this moment. There is no waiting period (Laughter). Indeed as long as the living entity is in this material world, there would be dualities of negative and positive, hot and cold, happiness and distress, good and evil. I trust this gives you proper clarification.

  127. mcauleysworld says:

    “I don’t know … But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking …. don’t they” The Scarecrow

    “Unusual weather we’re having, ain’t it?” Cowardly Lion

    “I do believe in spooks. I do believe in spooks. I do! I do! I do! I do believe in spooks” Cowardly Lion

    “There is no place like home, There is no place like home, There is no place like home” Dorothy

    “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” Al Gore

  128. Phil. says:

    MA (08:28:36) :
    Peter. Yes, there are thousands of web pages dedicated Wilkins. I’m glad you found one and linked it here! ;-) But there are not that many dedicated to the rest of Antarctica, which gains ice so that Antarctica have a net gain of ice. (Wingham, Bengtsson etc.)

    Also plenty showing a decrease too!

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/03/060302180504.htm

  129. Mike Bryant says:

    Knight,
    Consider me clarified.
    Mike

  130. Steve Keohane says:

    I notice CT has no images yet for 2009 to compare side-by-side extents. I have yet to see anything regarding the increased rotation of the earth in the past several years, where the only explanation put forth is increased mass at the pole(s). I finally found a way to count pixels in photoshop, and am posting this image again, the shoreline change with the addition of snow since 2004 at CT. I used the maximum ice extent number of 15 X 10^6 Km^2 to determine the pixels for artic ice, 1979 and 1988. This minimizes the area for shoreline change with/without snow, and arrive at a conservative figure of 1.6 X 10^6 km^2. This represents area that won’t be counted in maximum ice area since 2004. I don’t know to what extent this will affect the annual amount, I would guess 50% or less of 1.6 X 10^6 Km^2.
    http://i44.tinypic.com/330u63t.jpg

  131. ralph ellis says:

    >>To me the North Pole should be friendly and have lots and
    >>lots of flags were we can hold hands and where we can all
    >>put on a yellow Parkas, which we can keep.

    http://www.nathab.com/destinations/index.aspx?pageID=7&tripID=153&action=trip_overview

    Hold on – they got there using a nuclear powered ice-breaker. Should it not have been a sailing ship, like Shakelton? Now that would make the journey more environmentally freindly (and completely impossible).

    .

  132. ralph ellis says:

    .

    On a more serious note, these explorers are a worrying extension of the New Religion generation, people who will jump on any Liberal bandwagon while ignoring the reality around them.

    We see it in the many thousands who bought roof-top wind turbines only to find out they did not work, when all rational folk screamed that they were useless (the store has stopped selling them now). We see it in the many do-gooders who say there are no really bad in people, they are just misunderstood, and then they add another layer of security on their property. We see it in the many liberal folk who declare that immigration is wonderful, and then move to a completely white neighbourhood.

    Instead of being GW deniers, these people are Rationality deniers. They see a world as their mind thinks it should be, and filter out the reality around them. Liberals have always been dreamers, but they have taken a leap into the completely irrational over the past decade or two.

    .

  133. ralph ellis says:

    .

    On a more sober note, these explorers are a supreme manifestation of the recent surge in Liberal dreaming, new Martyrs offering their frost-bitten souls on the altar of the New Religion.

    We see elements of this New Revelation in the many thousands who bought roof-top generators and discovered that they did not work; despite the rational telling them they were useless (the store has stopped selling them now). We see it in the do-gooders who say there is no bad in people, they are just misunderstood, and then they add another layer of security to their property. We see it in those who say immigration is wonderful, and then move to a completely white neighbourhood.

    Liberals have always been dreamers, but they have drifted into extremes of irrationality in recent decades. It is about time the rational gained some of the levers of state, and exercised real power.

    .
    .

  134. MarekT says:

    About temperature jump in January. Something hit magnetosphere in January 21 it was HUGE
    look ant this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqWNNhsYrdI check temperature probably will be higher too..

  135. Richard Heg says:

    “One hundred years ago, Sir Ernest Shackleton tried, but narrowly failed, to become the first man to reach the South Pole. Descendants of his team have been retracing and completing his journey.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7979798.stm

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