I received this email tip from reader Thomas Bakewell (HT, HT) who wrote:
Pen Hadow, of the 2009 Caitlin Arctic Expedition is on the loose again!
Here’s the link to the BBC story which is mostly a short video.
Here is a quote:
British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.
With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.
AND HERE IS A BUNCH OF STORIES WUWT RAN THE LAST TIME THESE ZEALOTS WERE PRANCHING AROUND.
Another shocked polar explorer
Admiration For The Catlin Explorers
Global Warming At The Pole Since 1913
Catlin Crew Officially Has Hypothermia (and Frostbite)
Catlin Arctic Survey website recycles biotelemetry data?
Can the Catlin Arctic Survey Team Cover 683 km in the Next 21 Days?
Catlin Arctic Ice Survey: paid advertising of results before they are even off the ice!
The Guardian Relocates The North Pole By 500km
Catlin Artic Ice Survey: An Annie Hall Moment
The Top Ten Reasons why I think Catlin Arctic Ice Survey data can’t be trusted
I thoroughly recommend “The Ascent of Rum Doodle” by W.E. Bowman. A must for all would-be explorers.
Agree whole heartedly.
Pen is a friend of mine, he`s ok, his business is doing things, managing risk and getting paid for it, and having a lot of fun (?) at the same time, please shoot the data and results, not the person.
That’s a reasonable request ” shoot the data and the results not the person”; but I can’t help but think from what you have said that he is being paid to do this for propaganda.
Whether or not he makes it he has made it possible for the disingenuous message, which has already been broadcast far and wide, that the North pole is “ice free” due to unprecedented ice melt, global warming etc etc.
To my mind that puts a slightly different slant on it and on your otherwise reasonable request.
Let’s look ….
Doesn’t look that “unprecedented since there was less ice and melting faster in 2012. Or maybe they mean the fact that last years ice min was the same as the 2007 ice min and the fact that it had not reduced in a full ten years was “unprecedented” … in the very limited 40 year record, that is.
Sorry jono, when someone is involved anti-scientific propaganda and distorting the truth by playing to media bias , I shoot the messenger.
The fact that he is getting paid is certainly because of the message this trip will bring. Let’s have a list of his sponsors. I’ll bet it’s not Heartland Institute of Cato foundation !
Bear in mind that both 2007 and 2016 were lower than 2012 shown there. “Unprecidented” is total BS.
He may stand a chance IF his boats look like this
Or, if he has access to really good financing
http://www.damen.com/-/media/New-Corporate-Damen/Images/News/2015/09/Damen_SeaXplorer_brings_true_capability_to_expedition_yachting/SeaXplorer_90m_Ice_Breaking.jpg
• Pen, ok? – you are quite forgiving for a friend.
• Pen, doing things? – You mean scamming free rides, expensive equipment, seriously expensive rescues?
• Pen, managing risk? – What risks? Falsehoods, false data, false claims?
• Pen, getting paid for it and having fun? – Ah, the life of a professional elitist adventuring off the public funds.
• Pen, shoot the data and results? – Why waste anyone’s time?
Pen told fibs regarding Arctic weather, weather causes, alleged global warming, drilling ice, ice radar, etc.
One would think that someone would spend some time doing some serious research before making absurd claims and then endangering lives.
Greg covered a central base regarding the Arctic.
Here are a few others:
Which North Pole does Pen plan to visit? Based on previous Pen escapades, I suspect it’s whatever one Pen thinks he can reach.
Here is the true North Pole:
Hint, it’s where the Longitude lines meet at an empty circle where time is technically suspended.
Arctic ice:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/analysis/cbar.gif
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/analysis/nh.gif
Sure looks like the North Pole is ice covered.
Multiple countries have buoys floating around in the Arctic and nearby waters:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/pngs/DriftMap.png
Buoy 127317:
Drifting here:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/MAPS/127317.png
Buoy 127317 Sea level pressure and temperature track:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/TimeSeries/127317.png
Buoy 300234063518440:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/MAPS/300234063518440.png
Buoy 300234063518440: Sea level pressure and temperature track:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/TimeSeries/300234063518440.png
Buoy 300234062738010:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/MAPS/300234062738010.png
Buoy 300234062738010: Sea level pressure and temperature track:
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/RAW_PLOTS/TimeSeries/300234062738010.png
It does not look like the last month of ice melt is running hot!
Why isn’t he attempting to get as far as he can , knowing he will fail, because the ice is thick and the global warming narrative is a false one ?
If he said that, I might agree with you that your friend is ok.
Sponsors who are paying good money for an adventurer to set sail into the unknown want to ensure their risk is fully covered and they want a real headline they can buy into from a very determined and single minded person, one doesnt get too many takers if your shoutline is `to see how far I get` rather than `off to the North pole!` and that person is free to write a book about his experiences and write it in a vein that he believes will sell the book well. Pen is far from an ecoloon trying to prove armageddon is just round the corner and Ive noticed there are a lot of writers out churn out pure fiction year after year and are lauded for it.
Oh well if he is lying for the money and the glory, that’s ok then.
Now there is an interesting logical fallacy. “there are a lot of writers out churn out pure fiction year after year and are lauded for it.”
Imagine that, pure fiction versus mostly fiction?
Still, mostly loud, shrill, false alarmism.
If the person’s purpose is to perpetuate abuse of science for a political purpose, it is open season on him.
Just the same as Alex Bellini , Iceberg Rider. Latest – In late 2018 Alex Bellini will accompany the ice in the final part of his journey that condemns it to become water. Clinging to that piece of drifting ice, Alex will spend his time testifying how ice becomes iceberg and how the iceberg becomes water.
Guess he just hasn’t found a good berg to start on since 2015 – Alex Bellini, 36, will set off next spring to look for a suitable iceberg north of Greenland
Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2014/08/26/adrift-adventurer-to-live-on-melting-iceberg-to-highlight-climate-change-4846342/#ixzz4pwTIX7SE
Living off the Hype.
“”he just hasn’t found a good berg”
Recently there has been a little one broken off off Antarctica. Should be sufficient for the rest of his life.
Closing line: “They are unsure how far north they will be able to sail.”
jono1066, you wrote that his business is doing things and getting paid for it — do you know who is paying him to do this?
Yea, and will they be picking up the tab for rescuing these,,,,,persons?
Well, he’s tried raising money through indiegogo, not too successfully (GBP 400 from a target of GBP 25,000).
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/arctic-mission-to-protect-90-north-adventure-environment#/
From snrjon link:
“. Up to 40% has been open water in recent summers (i.e. almost no sea ice),”
Less than half is “almost no sea ice”. LOL. Alarmism 101
DCA,
I don’t think they meant to say that 40% open water equates to ‘almost no sea ice’ as that would be somewhat ludicrous. I think they are sayimg that their definition of ‘open water’ is ‘almost no sea ice’. Of course, ‘almost no sea ice’ is pretty subjective. Does ‘almost none’ mean 5%, 20%, or 40% sea ice? It is still a deception, just not as obvious as the one you suggest.
Well maybe he is not aware that “ice free” means there is <= 10^6 square km of ice still left.
That's plenty to get stuck on.
One’s “business model” is to hustle rich people out of money by playing on their fear of so-called “climate change”.
It would not be at all surprising if he loses his boat or worse on one of these stunt sailing trips.
Then I suggest you have him read “THE ICE MASTER” and other works like it, which clearly show how people who do what your friend does, often get scores of other people killed. The person(ality) is the only thing worth shooting. We’ll keep the data as a shining example of stupidity.
I suggest he just look at the latest satellite photo of the area via NASA, now that we’re at the end of summer/melt season..
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,Coastlines,Graticule&t=2017-08-14&z=3&v=-2640414.431018763,-1707200.1937094894,3916640.2869569883,1712970.6022841851
Climbing into a barrel and floating over Niagra Falls has been made illegal. The stupidity of the act itself cannot reasonably be outlawed.
Please, next time someone breaks the “barrel law”, point out that they only broke the law. Please don’t point out that the individual is stupid, an idiot, or a charlatan trying to get attention/money and not caring about anyone else; please don’t point out how selfish he is; please don’t call attention to the individual moral flaws that led up to the recless act.
If Pen is running a transponder (it would make sense to do so) With a position and time update you might be able to select which track is his: https://www.marinetraffic.com
There only a dozen or so boats in the area. Several marked pleasure craft. Looks like the chart only runs up to 85N So might not be able to see it if the goal is 90.
He’s here
http://www.arcticmission.com/follow-arctic-mission/
mwhite – according to his map there is no ice in the North Pole 🙂
The http://www.arcticmission.com/follow-arctic-mission/ site says that this is a trip AROUND the North Pole, not trip TO the North Pole. I wonder if that has anything to do with the actual goal here.
@ur momisugly mwhite. They keep changing the height on their temperature measurements, anywhere between 0 and 18m asl.
I don’t care if he’s ok, or mentally vacant…I hope if he gets stuck up there, they LEAVE HIM there. He was warned. He was given data. If HE ignores all of it and does it anyway….no ice breakers or helicopters for him. Natural selection at work.
Aussies had their ‘turkey’ sailing to Antarctica, now the Brits as competitive as ever have their ‘turkey’ proposing to sail to the Arctic. Lot of fun to be had.
Lots of ships of fools.
As long as no arctic icebreaker crewmen are injured trying to save him when he inevitably gets iced in – it is all fun, games, and propaganda!
While it’s all “ice free” and “sailing to the north pole” and “record low ice coverage” the media (and the BBC in particular) will be all over this.
As soon as it turns to “stuck in heavy ice” or “had to be rescued because of the ice conditions” there’ll be media silence.
Who wants to wager that the MSM will proclaim the expedition a success despite what they do or actually find?
I heard this story on BBC’s World News on the radio. It was fallowed by s story of some Brit who lost his pooch while on holiday. Now he has gone back to the vacation spot to see if he can find the family mutt. I’m NOT kidding, this was a news story on the BBC.
The pooch story is one of the better ones on the BBC World Service, something has actually happened, i.e. it qualifies as news, unlike much of the so-called news, which tends to be: here is something that is about to (or may) happen, something that will make us all feel good. News used to be about trade figures and earthquakes, now it is all about feelings, as in “politician heckled in meeting” (a genuine lead item recently on the BBC), OMG, someone is angry and upset, fire-up social meedyah, and start another outrage bus.
For complete immersion in feelings, take your BBC World with a side of radio drama… some sonic tapestry such as a routine visit of a Vicar to a lady’s drawing-room. If you nail the audio against a compressor-limiter every tiny noise becomes huge. It begins with small talk with the servants about provisions, then a knock on the door which is opened with a little (giant!) squeak, the announcement and invitation to be seated, footfalls and rustling sounds, then the Lady Of The House enters and they let loose a barrage of sharp spoken and mumbled pleasantries, shuffling sounds like the ruffle of clothing, all the while a patter of politics, triffids, some question about lineage or heaven forbid, church gossip. At some point there is the tea ritual, a rollicking tirade of noises that combines the clattering of trays with the clinking of cups, cribbage about crumpets or biscuits, various liquid sounds, two people negotiating honey and lumps and stirring in unison which gives way to repeated slurps within the discourse. Sometimes you can tell the actors aren’t teaing because the voices lack the spittley effect of lubrication on the lips, so I imagine a room somewhere whose walls are covered in buttons, each one producing a tea sound, with a nervous fellow stabbing them at random. Rustling of paper is also welcome to hear, perhaps a contract or newspaper. The disengagement of the visit lasts as long as its onset with byeish pleasantries exchanged, the telltale acoustic signal of voices in the hallway. It is leisurely civilized interaction performed skillfully, yet in my imagination the Vicar and the Lady may well had disrobed and done the deed as all this sonic ruckus was going on. If you have a stereo set you can put the news on the left and the drawing room cacophony on the right.
Don’t keep us in suspense. Has he found it? These things matter to us Brits
Tonyb
I’ll repeat my post on notalotofpeopleknowthat
It seems they [Pen] left at 03:00 GMT yesterday morning (Tuesday).
However, it wasn’t without mishap. According to his Twitter feed, the Bagheera was beached on a sand bar whilst leaving Nome harbour earlier.
Good start.
https://twitter.com/PenHadow
Have you notified the Canadian Navy so they can send icebreakers to save you again? And are you going to pay for that rescue, or will tax payers it that cost, yet again?
Sorry, Hotscot, I thought that was Pen Hadow actually posting here.
To hear it on the news last night you would believe that the North pole is now ice free because of unprecedented ice melt and global warming.
BBC once again showing their fervent belief in the AGW religion and unquestioning determination to promote it at every possible (or impossible) opportunity.
The BBC?
Biased?
Surely not!
Jeremy Vine (12 noon – 2pm, daily topical discussion and music show on Radio 2, big in the UK) was hosting a discussion on the Charlottesville “Alt-Right” Neo Nazi demonstration turning violent, Trumps reaction, so on and so forth.
I emailed Jeremy pointing out that Nazi is an abbreviation of Nationalist Socialist Workers Party, of which Hitler was the figurehead, therefore any demonstrations including a Neo Nazi element are influenced by the Left, not the Right.
But of course the MSM, including the supposedly independent, licence fee funded BBC, will distort anything to accuse the Right of anything they can possibly dream up.
My email wasn’t read out.
Hadow is a publicity-seeking moron, sailing another “ship of fools” into danger.
If he thinks he is going to get within 1000km of the North Pole, he is delusional (a characteristic of climate alarmists).
You can check out sea ice extent and thickness on this blog
My only concern is that this idiot is going to endanger others, if he ends up having to be rescued.
That’s the kicker.
It should be made clear to this cretin that if he and his fellow travellers get into trouble, there is NO rescue at any taxpayer expense. See how keen he is then…
These types only prosper (along with their message, subliminal or not) when they are warned that the consequences of their actions will have to be borne by them.
It must be global warming wots doing it cos in Oz, fresh off the keyboard at F%&k Facts media we have Steve (aka Stefan) Lewandowsky turning up as … wait for it … a screen writer who will assist on developing scripts with more Cli-Fi content. Climate Fiction folks, almost an oxymoron in itself. Oh Stefan Magoo, you’ve done it again.
go to http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/climate-fiction-forum-sees-tv-drama-as-one-solution-to-global-warming-20170815-gxwew4.html
????????
I thought the trip was canceled yesterday, due to ice conditions.
Here is a Climate Depot link:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/08/14/no-joke-sailing-trek-to-north-pole-to-highlight-effects-of-climate-change-cancelled-due-to-solid-pack-ice/
Nope.
Attention grabbing headline at climatedepot, though.
I suspect that the intention to get to the pole has been abandoned, but they will still go for a sail, for publicity purposes, and they claim to be doing science, which is why they have journalists on board.
They better reconsider. Note that temps have dropped below freezing over the last 48 hours in the Arctic as shown at DMI.. Also Greenland smb melt may have bottomed out 2 days ago, as well.
An important indicator for early cooling is in eastern Siberia where the first deep minus temps set in, imo. I have picked a spot to watch and take regular screenshots using earthnull. For the last 3 years the spot marked was close to the center of where the seasonal cold spot develops. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=159.95,72.58,497/loc=124.811,62.411
This year, it looks to me like the Cold Spot is going to develop around 30 degrees west as compared to the last 3 years of observing. The point to this is that last year the leading edge of -10 F or lower temps reached eastern Poland. If the cold develops 30 degrees further west and then moves west the same distance as in last winter then the leading edge of -10 F or lower temps will almost reach the coast of France. Europe will experience a deep freeze. Here is the spot where the cold should first be felt. Also Alaska may be another lobe of the cold wave when it first sets in, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=73.79,66.31,671/loc=90.571,64.139
The Climate Depot headline is attention grabbing. But it’s not without some truth.
Clicking on the link we find…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sailing-to-north-pole-will-have-to-wait-dkm95rtrd
Best year to try this was 2012. Arctic sea ice has been growing since, but some people are just slow to find out.
Nansen data shows current sea ice area greater than not only 2012, but ’11, ’15 and ’16 as well.
Its rivalling 2007 for second lowest extent at present…
I wouldn’t say it had ‘grown’.
Griffie is playing with “extent” and “area” again. The ice happens to be unusually dense this year so “area” scores much higher than “extent”.
For Hadow this is of course bad news.
By the way why don’t you go straight to “volume” Griffie? That is completely modelled with no actual data at all.
But said it’s all gone Griff, your squiggly line god told you that. So aren’t you sailing there as well Griff?
Griff
when will it be ice free? take the Tony M bet come on put your posting where your mouth is.
Arctic sea ice is notoriously variable, according to Richard Lindzen. Its extent depends on the confluence of many factors. How far back do reliable records go? How reasonable is it to imagine that any observed trend is outside the range of naturally internal variability? It’s very difficult to take seriously a person who argues that a change in *insert favourite sea ice metric* is primarily a function of man made emissions of CO2. The same thing could be said about all of the climate metrics.
You could even start with the date people even ‘knew ‘ there was an Arctic in the first place. For a majority of history travel was along cost , then between island , then routes with good winds and for trading . None favored the far north or south. Even the knowledge of their existence , let alone any measurement from them , is simply not that old .
Reliable records go back 20 to 30 years.
Malcolm, Records Go?
With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up,
Unless he gets beyond 83°34′N, it is not Unprecedented, Not a Record and will only prove no real change since 1895.
The crew disembarked, fearing that the vessel would be crushed, but Fram proved herself equal to the danger. On 8 January 1895 the ship’s position was 83°34′N, above Greely’s previous Farthest North record of 83°24
ya, and it will be my tax dollars at work to rescue this idiot.
He should be told his on his own – no taxpayer dollars spent or innocent lives risked if he gets into trouble. Lets see him get on then. If this turns into a further post of the similar comment made earlier, apologies. The other comment vanished into the aether.
Pen Hadow’s mind is right!
He has already made it to the destination and you, sinner!
Just ask the BBC! The AP! the DC Post! the NYT!, the SF/LA/Chicago/….
They all “religiously believe” and will give you the …..
…what? You don’t believe them?
just because they pocket $$$ and propagandize doesn’t mean
…they are aren’t similar to a sack of hammers
….and will make sure their kids go to the best of the best schools.
“Professor Mark Serreze, director of America’s National Snow and Ice Data Centre, said the North Pole was still surrounded by nearly 800 miles of solid pack ice as of last week.”-climatedepot
…and it’s moving around a lot….any leads they follow runs the risk of getting crunched
Polar bears need to eat, too.
So, will the Canadian Navy be reimbursed for saving these,,,,people?
I suspect he’ll head for the NW passage and only turn north during his run if the ice near the pole loosens up.
It is the middle of August, he is out of luck, ice ain’t gonna do nothin’ but get thicker from here on out.
Ice in the arctic melts until the end of the first week in September IIRC on average, so it has three weeks to go. That’s why this guy has timed his departure as he has. He’s aiming to hit the NW passage at the ice-extent minimum, I suspect.
Looking at NSIDC it appears this is not a typical year, so I see another icebreaker led rescue in this clown’s future.
If he really wanted to get there he would have left earlier and been waiting.
He knows he cant’ get there, and is timing everything for the best excuse to turn around.
Wonder if he has a performance clause in his contract? Have to get to blahblah coordinates for cash&carry!
The Northwest Passage is difficult this year. There is still a lot of ice in the stretch from Taloyoak to Bellot Strait. He might not even make it through the passage without icebreaker assistance.
That ice is wrong. Naughty frozen water.
Who are you going to believe, me or your own lying ice?
Reaching the North Pole in a sailboat? Pen Hadow got to be kidding!
British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.
“With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.”
How is the Arctic ice melting? Let us count the ways
1. Arctic ice minimum volume will be reached in a couple of weeks at more than 6000 km3, which is 1000 km3 more than 2015 and 1500 km3 more than 2016.
It was very warm in the Arctic above the 80th latitude last winter. Late summer two hurricane strength storms broke up a lot of ice up and transported it south to areas where it was bound to melt. The ice area reached a new low, except for the year 2012, but the ice volume hit a new all time low on Sep 9 2016.
2. Northern Greenland ice has already started growing
3 The ice mass on Greenland has grown more than 150 km3 above normal this season.
4. The average Arctic temperature above 80 degree latitude has already dipped below freezing.
5. The Arctic ice area will still decrease for another month or so since sea ice does not start forming until temperatures are -4 degree C, but the ice volume is near its minimum since snow season in the Arctic has already started, and new snow on ice stays, and fresh snow has a higher albedo than old, tired ice.
The North East Passage choke point Cape Chelyuskin is still blocked. That is one week later than last year and three weeks later than 2015
Pen Hadow and crew set sail out of Nome 0300 GMT Aug 15. My prediction: They will reach the 80 th latitude, a full 600 nautical miles short of their goal.
With the supporting charts: https://lenbilen.com/2017/08/16/reaching-the-north-pole-in-a-sailboat-pen-hadow-got-to-be-kidding/
and still claim it was only possible thanks to ‘climate doom ‘
and in classical ‘heads I win tails you lose ‘ style , otherwise known has climate ‘science’ if they stopped by ice further south than than expected that will also be ‘proof ‘ of climate doom .
Cape Chelyuskin will likely remain blocked, since Arctic temps have no retreated below freezing, almost a week ahead of seasonal average date. The Arctic has remained below average temps for almost all days since April.
pimf * temps have now retreated below freezing
According to DMI the Arctic has been below average every day since May 5.
The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…
It is growing because of increased precipitation – as snowfall.
Storm patterns have lead to an awful lot more snow falling on parts of the Greenland ice.
It isn’t necessarily’cooling’ causing that.
and note that the ice cap is still likely to decrease in volume, as calving from glaciers reduces overall volume and in recent years has exceded the volume added from snow…
The NW passage is likely to be open by September (as it has been for a decade)
and I think we are already at a lower extent for the date than 2016…
However the fact that the snow doesn’t melt this summer seems to indicate that it isn’t exactly balmy up north.
By the way there hasn’t been this much snow this late in the Scandinavian mountains in living memory.
Great! When Greenland Ice is shrinking, the cause is Global Warming! BUT when the Greenland Ice is growing, the cause is also – Global Warming!!!
It’s almost as if no matter what happens, the cause is always Global Warming!!!
Hey Griff – try inserting the phrase “The will of God” in place of the phrase “Global Warming”, and you will find that every statement you make means exactly the same thing, except that it will be a bit more obvious that you’re just a run of the mill medieval cleric in modern garb.
It actually makes considerably more sense, and no pretence you know it’s just a faith thing.
Minus 33 degrees on July 4th 2017. Uh-huh. All to do with precip and not related to cold temps, right ? And of course, when there’s a future low precip year and ice accumulation decreases, that will be guaranteed proof of warming and nothing to do with the low precip ? ROFL.
wws: “It’s almost as if no matter what happens, the cause is always Global Warming!!!”
Duh! In other shocking news, water is wet.
Water flows downhill, ice flows downhill at a more leisure pace, but flows nevertheless. More calving is a function of more accumulation at the head of the glacier. You might make the case of climate change causing more accumulation at the top of the glacier, but the case for a net imbalance caused by warming temperatures is unwarranted speculation driven by climate hysteria.
Have they actually measured the volume lost to calving or is it just a WAG?
@griff…right it is an increase in rainfall as well as cooler than average temps. The main driver of all of that is the change in wind patterns where over the last 3 years there has been a stream of moisture laden surface air pushed north up the Atlantic, which then rained out mainly in southeastern Greenland. The current gain of SMB has come from Arctic air streaming across Baffin Bay and onto the ice in northwest Greenland. It is very probable that the Greenland melt season is over for this year, unprecedented
“The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…It is growing because of increased precipitation – as snowfall.” — Griff
And snowfall is caused by…? Right. Cold.
Pathetic.
“The ice mass on Greenland is growing not because of cold or any conditions which might affect the arctic sea ice and this voyage…”
Griff the map of temps in Greenland has looked like this for most of July and August:
There is a decent chance he will, at the least, lose his boat.
If not his life or the lives of his crew.
Did he get directions from Jerome Clarkson ?
Perhaps we should start a pool for when they have to call for rescue?
I pick Sept. 10th.
Hope they don’t wait too long to call….Darwin awards on tap …
They’re only eligible for Darwin awards if they haven’t reproduced.
Cool! A deadpool, I take August 31st.
X = days travel to Kotezebue(sp?)
Departure Day + X = Date trip ends.
here is map of the up to date progress
http://www.arcticmission.com/follow-arctic-mission/
Hey, they made it through the Bering Strait! The hard part is done.
Yeah, but the sat photos show it’s solid ice once you hit 80°. They can fiddle-fart around when they hit that line, but that will be the limit of their progress.
I stopped by the web page and just happened to notice that it’s title is “Follow Arctic Mission on its voyage around the North Pole.” Quick, catch those goal posts!
Still some 2 to 2.5 meter thick ice up there at the North Pole. Hope they have a big Ice Breaker (for their sake)
er… I think you are misreading that…
The chart shows under 2 to under 1.5m ice at the pole
There’s barely any 2.5m ice left.
and it is very far from solid/100% ice coverage toward the pole
I’d say he might be in with a chance -see this:
Sure, but can you sail there on a fiberglass sail boat? They have no chance in succeeding but it does make for feel-good (bad?) headlines.
Perhaps it should be pointed out that both maps are pure modelling, i e hypothetical.
Ice thickness can only be measured in winter (October-May) when there are no melt pools on the ice. In summer satellites have no reference sea-level to measure the ice freeboard since it is impossible to separate melt pools and open water.
You had to find something wrong with it!
/sarc
Griff your map was all wrong when you showed the western portion of Hudson Bay ice free and the polar bears were for the most part still out playing on ice that the Canadian Ice Services was showing. I don’t think the accuracy is worth much … ie errors of 50% or greater and lots of missed ice.
Griffie is very fond of “Polar View” because for some reason it always shows much less ice than all other sources (Russian, Canadian, Norwegian, Danish or US).
Nice boat though….extra flexible fuel tanks strapped on the cabin tops (blue and black) and the ubiquitous rag hanging to dry on the lifeline….real sailors!
My wife and I are sailors — but —- warm waters only!
Let’s wish brave explorers a good luck. They need it.
I’m not sure I can wish someone doing something foolish luck.
There is a logistics group, The Polar Continental Shelf Project, which facilitates scientific work in the arctic … no fuss, no muss, no bother … just professional. Then there are the adventurers who are the ‘polar’ opposite. It’s fine if people want to do dangerous things in a dangerous and stupid way … we just shouldn’t reward them with publicity. It’s not like they are doing anything useful like exploring uncharted territory or anything like that.
What’s the diff between Caitlin and Catlin expeditions?
Caitlin has two i’s, so it can c better.
This is the September average Arctic sea ice prediction
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/612040-1.png
From:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/july
Only 4 weeks left of slow melting, and it is probable that the September average will be at ≥ 4.5 million sq. km.
When the BBC says:
They are simply lying. The Arctic is not melting at an unprecedented rate, and there is no chance the trip to the North Pole can be done over water. Liars, liars, you should stop taking people’s money to lie to them.
Well extent currently lower than last year…
Second lowest ever by NSIDC measure
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
and this is difficult to read but looks like lower volume than last year
http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/
the arctic is still melting, declining on all counts.
There is variation each year -this has been a cold year with poor melt conditions – but the trend is still down.
It is absolutely clear this year is already lower on all measures than 2016.
However, Nansen data reports ice area now above 2016, 2015, 2012 and 2011.
How do you give him a 5% chance to get through 2+ meter thick ice? Or even .25 meter?
Hmmm. Is this indicative of a pause in global warming? I recommend the continued use of linear trend to hide the pause.
No Griff,
The US National Ice Center places current ice extent in the Arctic exactly on top of the 10-year average
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only.jpg
The Danish Meteorological Institute, and EUMETSAT agree. The Japanese agency JAXA says the same.
The Arctic has not melted at all for the past 10 years, and considering from the lowest years of 2007 and 2012, it has recovered some ice.
We might not know what will happen next, but we do know what has happened these past 10 years. We also know what we have been told these past 10 years and it was not true. Alarmists lie when they talk about the future, and they lie when they talk about the past.
And you personally have been wrong on this issue. 2017 is going to come as one of the recent years with the least melt in the Arctic. A very good year for the ice, if you happen to like it, despite how warm it has been. It is clear to anybody with two neurons that GSAT do not determine Arctic melt and a lot of experts have demonstrated they are not experts at all in their subject.
“It is absolutely clear this year is already lower on all measures than 2016.”
Lying as usual I see, Griffie
extent (NOAA/NSIDC)
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r00_Northern_Hemisphere_ts_4km.png
area (ROOS)
http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_area.png
By the way a pretty good trick reading the volume off a chart showing extent…..
No, not all counts.
And there is zero evidence that the Arctic sea ice is having any impact either way on climate or the environment.
Additionally there is much historical evidence that ice has been lower in the past than it is now.
And even then there was no long term climate or enviro impact.
You are just arm waving and hoping to convince people there is a hurricane from the breeze your arms make.
What would be great is a sensor fail like it did before and the graph plummet to zero and see how many fools we get.
Griff
When will the north pole be ice free?
I beg your pardon tty – I had both vol and extent open and clicked the wrong link.