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The Global Warming Policy Foundation
In this episode, we speak with Roger Pielke Jr. about how what was lauded as the “business as usual” climate scenario known as RCP8.5 became “implausible” to the IPCC. Pielke also shares his insights on natural decarbonisation through greater efficiency and how he was investigated by the White House when he broke with the climate consensus.
00:00 – Introduction & The Significance of Climate Scenarios Roger Pielke Jr. introduces the role of socioeconomic scenarios in climate modeling and the personal challenges he faced when his work was investigated by Congress.
01:21 – What is RCP 8.5? An explanation of the “Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5,” how it was developed, and how it became the baseline for “worst-case” climate projections.
04:53 – How Scenarios Influence Policy and Infrastructure A look at how these scientific models are embedded into government policies, banking stress tests, and global infrastructure decisions.
06:57 – The Self-Correction of Science & Retiring Extreme Scenarios Discussion on the decade-long process it took for the scientific community to move away from extreme scenarios like RCP 8.5.
10:10 – Why Emission Trajectories Have Changed Evaluating whether the shift away from worst-case scenarios is due to climate policy or flawed original assumptions about future energy use (e.g., the “coal-heavy” future).
14:31 – Academic Freedom and Political Pressure Pielke Jr. reflects on being labeled a “climate criminal” and the lack of institutional support for academic freedom during intense political debates.
21:24 – Extreme Weather Events: What Does the Data Say? A summary of current scientific understanding regarding heat waves, precipitation, hurricanes, and the difficulty of “detecting” changes in rare events.
26:15 – The Rise of Attribution Science A critique of “attribution science,” which attempts to link individual weather events directly to climate change, and its role in media and litigation.
32:16 – Climate Litigation and International Agreements Analyzing the success (or lack thereof) of climate lawsuits against companies and governments, specifically in Europe and the US.
36:24 – The Reality of Net Zero Targets A deep dive into the UK’s Climate Change Act and the practical challenges of meeting Net Zero by 2050 given current energy and economic trends.
38:30 – Modeling the Relationship Between Climate and Economy Discussion on the “inscrutable relationship” between global temperature and GDP, and the limitations of both top-down and bottom-up economic modeling.
46:08 – The Social Cost of Carbon & Energy Decarbonization Exploring the “social cost of carbon,” the natural trend of decarbonization in growing economies, and the future of energy policy.
52:20 – Closing Thoughts: Looking Back on 20 Years of Analysis Final reflections on the progress toward a more rational discourse around climate and energy.
