Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
The Arabunna people live in the area around Lake Eyre in Southern Australia. It is a hot, hostile desert region, which is no surprise, because … well … it’s in Australia. Here’s the general area where they live:
Figure 1. Lake Eyre region in South Australia. Yellow line show the area from 25°-30°S, 135°-140°E
A new report from the University of Everybody-Panic is a study of the horrendous future faced by these poor folks:
The first stage of University of Adelaide research released today shows that South Australia’s Arabunna country, which includes Lake Eyre in the far north, is likely to get both drier and hotter in decades to come.
“Temperatures could increase up to four degrees Celsius in Arabunna country in the next century, threatening the survival of many plants and animals,” says the author of the report, Dr John Tibby from the University of Adelaide’s Discipline of Geography, Environment and Population. SOURCE: PhysOrg
Yes, temperatures “could” increase … and I could win the lottery, but I’m not quitting my day job just yet. Meanwhile, back in the real world, what’s been happening in the Lake Eyre region in the last thirty years? Figure 2 shows the satellite-derived temperature trends for the lower troposphere in the area around Lake Eyre, from both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Services (RSS).
Figure 2. Satellite temperatures for the lower troposphere in the Lake Eyre Region of Southern Australia. Photo shows the approach to Lake Eyre. Temperatures are the average of the region outlined in yellow in Figure 1. All data from KNMI
So … here’s the deal. We have no evidence that the temperatures are rising in the Lake Eyre region. There has been little change in the area temperatures since the satellite records began. Despite that, University of Adelaide professors are selling their fantasies of a terrifying future to the Arabunna, the aboriginal people who live in the area.
Meanwhile, the temperatures in the region are currently lower than they have been in the entire satellite record …
The professors seem to find nothing wrong with scaring the aboriginal people who have lived there for generations. And where do their projections of a 5°C temperature rise originate? Well, as usual, it’s models all the way down, and even the modelers say that their models are useless at the regional level … but despite that, these professors from the University of East Wankerton or wherever it is are more than happy to use these useless models to terrify the local folks.
I find this kind of crying wolf reprehensible, particularly when it is aimed at indigenous people, but hey, that’s just me.
w.
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Jon at WA,
You are too extreme for me, I think that this is the wrong blog for you. You should try Getup or Crickey.
This is depressing. I got my first degree from U of A. But at least it was in philosophy, not geography. I learned geography at school.
(Note for American readers. In Australia, “school” means “primary school and high school”. Not tertiary education.)
mfo June 29, 2012 at 2:30 pm nails it; !!!
There is always greed and selfishness behind the scenes (here under the guise of caring for the people…..)
Tim Ball said:
Australia has no such option because they are 94 percent desert, although they have diverted water through the Snowy Mountain Range to provide supply to the coastal cities.
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Er, no Tim, wrong on both counts.
Around 74% of Australia is classified as semi-arid, arid or desert, not ‘94% desert’. It makes a big difference when you are talking about an area roughly comparable to the US.
I am not sure what you mean by the ‘Snowy Mountains Range’. The Great Dividing Range runs for more than 2,000 miles just inside the east coast, from Queensland to Victoria. The Snowy Mountains (near where I live) is a tiny subset of that, and not a drop of water is ‘diverted through it to provide supply to the coastal cities’.
There is a lot of politicking going on at present in relation to Lake Eyre and the local indigenous population. Apparently, it has been agreed that as the traditional owners, they now have the right to prevent people from boating on the lake when there is water in it, as it has been declared a sacred site (sigh!). However, it seems that the payment of an appropriate fee can overcome these religious difficulties.
ursus augustus says:
June 29, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Incidently, looking at the BOM rainfall data in the region does not indicate any down trend over the past century or so.
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At the risk of disappointing many contributors here: even if there was any trend over the past century or so, you can never project it in the future on the mere ground of the presence of such a trend in the past. You need to know what caused the past trend first.
You can also make up the cause and then speculate about the projection, but it is very important not to forget that it is not real. I am not sure if climate scientists know that.
King of Cool says: June 29, 2012 at 4:05 pm
And, just a very polite query …
What is it with people putting video musical clips in a climate blog comment section?
Now, I can understand quotes of lyrics … from sage like poets (and my favourites – “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”, from the Bob Dylan song “Subterranean Homesick Blues” and “The masters make the rules, for the wise men, and the fools”. (Dylan, again))
the real name for this university is UNIVERSITY OF EAST WANKERS , and they get large grants to do what they are doing
Any panic is good panic to a Warmist.
They simply refuse to believe that all normal people are on to their silly games.
johanna says:
ditto on your point. Anyone who has been to Australia is familiar with the river basins.
Strewth this is bloody boring and repetitive. Some academic wanker puts out a “finding” paraded in bold on the ABC and SMH then WUWTH / JoNova et al knocks it down. The correction is suitably buried on page 8 if at all. Cue for another academic – they seem to have an endless supply of my taxes – for another shonky study and off we go again. This applies world wide UVa,, Monash, Adelaide etc. etc. Seems to me that the the solution is to slash the funding despite the guaranteed screams from those on the gravy train. Alas I see zero likelyhood of this ever happening as the amount of political balls in evidence is woeful; please pass me my medication.
Robin says:
June 29, 2012 at 10:50 am
Intentions and goals are all that matter to these collectivist schemers. And they say so. Means and consequences are irrelevant to them even though they matter so much to us.
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I was watching a rerun of Mars Attacks. The Martians have loud speakers playing “Do Not Run, You Have Nothing to Fear”, as they ray gun everyone in sight that is standing still.
If Martian did invade earth, and told people to stand still, a lot of people would obey and stand there as they are vaporized. This is what scientists prey on to get grants. It is what politicians count on to get elected. The gullible that believe what they hear.
And why do scientists and politicians do this? Because they figure that if you are fool enough to believe them you deserve everything you get. It isn’t their fault you believe them, they are lying for a reason. It is your fault for not spotting the reason.
Their only mission in life is to continuously impoverish everybody. Don’t think that telling a few exaggerations or lies is going to worry them.
MonktonofOz says:
June 29, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Seems to me that the the solution is to slash the funding despite the guaranteed screams from those on the gravy train.
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I suggest climate science should be closed for 70 years.
If I was stuck in the desert near Lake Eyre I would much rather have a couple of the Arabunna people with me than a dozen professors from the University of Adelaide, At the very least Arabunna people would know where the water was and which way was up!
TheInquirer says:
June 29, 2012 at 2:14 pm
So a 40 year trend of 0.3 to 0.5C per decade in the observational record doesn’t contradict the claim of “no evidence” by the author?
You think the BOM uses UAH or RSS? Of course not, they are not adjusted to suit their agenda.
Dont you think its strange that UAH shows no warming trend through a warm PDO period in regional areas? UM, its called UHI and its not the only reason but its having an effect on temps since the mid 70s.
One could easily assume a fair cooling trend since 1979 if you think about UHI. Its been cooling since 1998, with record emissions, and an enormous amount of population growth. If you want to expirement on UHI, step outside at 2 am tomorrow morning and witness it.
So regional areas without cities show no warming, surprise surprise.
But then again, it COULD happen…
“tens of thousands of gigalitres of water per day”
i.e. tens of millions of megalitress
THAT’S a lot of water. Melbourne’s water storage is 1,068,000 megalitres
Oh gods grief I spotted 1 weasel word and 1 weasel phrase and 1 one weasel time period on that first sentence of the second paragraph.
Could – IE I could turn into a dragon by the end of the next century.
Up To – IE I will win up to 1,000,000,000,000.00 dollars US. Since up to clearly includes zero as a value.
Next century – well then no one ever needs to call them on it since it will all be dead and gone long before then.
Anyone who buys that article needs to take up the ancient Welsh martial art of Llap Goch –
http://www.llapgoch.org.uk/
Note for those not wanting to click blindly it is a wonderful illustration along the DHMO website about such language.
These academics are a disgrace. To go scaring these people with what is only a hypothesis at best. It is just so wrong. There must be some law that has been breached which would trigger serious criminal prosecution.
Well as of July 1st we will have a carbon tax that we were told was to stop nasty climate change. It will fix up the country and turn it into some sort of utopia. The only change the tax will bring is a change of government. As for Lake Eyre I say flood it and make energy producing solar ponds with the salt water. That plan has been kicking around since the seventies. Just do it!
I’m Uni of Adelaide Alumni – I’ll be bringing this up at the next Alumni night
Several comments have provided links to the official Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) surface data here;
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi?map=tmean&area=aus&season=0112&period=1910
Catweasle says June 29, 2012 at 4:32 pm
From Climate Explorer, I found 2 surface stations in the area 25 to 30 S, 135 to 140 E in the GHCN with at least 10 years of data. They are:
MARREE (AUSTRALIA), coordinates: -29.65N, 138.05E, and
BIRDSVILLE (AUSTRALIA), coordinates: -25.90N, 139.35E.
The data goes only to October 1992.
A graph the maximum temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is at
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/images/LakeErye_Australia.jpg
The temperatures correlate well with the satellite data.
The best fit lines are Marree -0.61 C/decade, Birdsville -0.34 C/decade.
Yes, both stations show declining temperatures.
BOM adjusted the data to change a temperature decline into a temperature increase.
So, a society that has lived and adapted in the driest state in the driest country for the past 40,000 years or so is not going to be able to adapt to whatever climate changes (could, may, possibly) occur in the next 90 years?
There is nothing out there but salt bush, sand, rocks, lizards, snakes, scorpions, camels, rabbits and other critters designed to live in such a harsh environment. I lived in the area (Woomera) for a few years and don’t recommend it for a lifestyle without all mod cons).
Australians are forever spending money providing modern conveniences to people claiming they wish to maintain their traditional ways. Perhaps it should be accepted that part of those traditions is to adapt to whatever the climate does. I’m sure that the conditions out there were very different 40,000, or even 1,000, years ago.
I also note the statement in the article:
How does a gradual rise in CO2 cause ‘a series of ‘jumps”. Perhaps someone can eviscerate the ‘report’ when it is released.
Also, do Dr john Tibby’s degrees in Geography and Environmental Science qualify him as a climate scientist as we are constantly being advised that we should only believe the words of those suitably ordained in the arcane arts of ‘Climate Science’.
In reply to.
Expatriate says:
I spoke in general and sweeping terms because the pattern I see is a general and sweeping one. The general part is that people have been forced off their land throughout history. The powers that be have used any excuse or just plain brute force. In the more “advanced societies” the methods are more subtle such as helping the poor hapless indigenous out of their plight. Never mind that they managed to survive there for generations. The sweeping part is that those that are out of power will be swept off the land they occupy.
Being slightly more specific but wishing not to write a dissertation, and be even more rude to Mr Willis Eschenbach .I will be very very brief. In the case of Zimbabwe Mr. Mugabe’s adversaries are being swept off the land they have occupied. From 1890 to 1979 the Indigenous peoples were slowly being swept off the land. After 2000 with the fast track land reforms different people are being swept off the land.
In the Case of South Africa the sweeping has been going on for a while. In the latest sweep there is even discussion between Mr. Guede Manatashe and the Youth Wing of the ANC as to whether there should be compensation for expropriation.
My alarm bells ring when some establishment type starts to point to a problem that does not exist and that there is no sound basis for. Typically, the next thing a remedy for the nonexistent problem will be put forth. The remedy typically involves money and the taking of something.
/ rant off
This post rang my GONG. Thank you Willis.
What is reprehensible is they have a creditable platform from which to present their machinations and for that they get paid.
This is the same research group who told us that the rains would never come!!
Lake Eyre is now in mid-winter, usually there is no water at this time of year, just barren salt plains.
But behold!!!… “Lake Eyre has flooded again for the fourth year in a row.
After a very quick initial pulse of water from significant local rains around Lake Eyre late February/early March, Lake Eyre North reached a surface coverage of 70% in mid-March. This dropped back to below 15% at the start of May. Water entered again from the Warburton Creek and Kalaweerina Creek so surface coverage is now back to just under 25%. However, water flow from these two creeks is now decreasing so Lake Eyre surface coverage has peaked again and will decline. Water has travelled down the Warburton Groove to Belt Bay, but this new surge of water is not nearly as significant as the last three years.” http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/parks/Find_a_Park/Browse_by_region/Flinders_Ranges_Outback/Lake_Eyre_National_Park/Current_status_2012
What the guys of the University of Everybody-Panic really mean is … that the slight cooling trend, as shown by the satellite data, is likely to continue. They just have a funny way of saying it so they can get more research grants to provide alarmist predictions and help the current clowns in the Aussie government to cling to power.