Or, “how to hide the decline with color”.
Here’s the image and press release from NOAA NNVL this week to push their hurricane season announcement. Notice anything odd?
Weakening of La Niña but Above Normal Hurricane Season is Predicted
[Thursday] NOAA issued the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, which predicts an above-normal year for activity. Though the La Niña continues to weaken in the Pacific, it will continue to effect weather patterns and influence the number of storms that are predicted. During La Niña years, wind shear is reduced in the Tropical Atlantic, creating conditions that are ideal for tropical cyclone formation. This image shows how the sea surface temperatures have changed, on average, from mid-April to mid-May. A warming signature is clearly visible as indicated by the red areas in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region, an indication of La Niña’s waning strength. Also related to the Atlantic Hurricane Season, warming trends are visible in the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
========================================================
Looks like pretty weak soup huh? Now compare that to images like these from the WUWT Ocean Resource Page and the ENSO page, and have a look at a prior SST visualization from NNVL:
To be fair, the top image this week from NNVL is about the change in SST, while the two examples above are the current SST. The point I’m trying to illustrate is not about the data, but about the choice of color used to visualize the data.
It sure is easy to make something look weak (or weakening, a word they use in the press release) if you wash it out like NOAA did with their top image. Note that their color scale (shown below for the La Niña is weakening image) is highly biased towards white, showing only the most extreme temperature in colors:
I wonder what the scale might look like when we have a strong El Niño heating up the planet?
Oh, wait, been there, done that. Here’s the image from NNVL when El Niño was on:
Here’s another:
Gosh, El Niño looks angry and threatening doesn’t it? All those fiery reds, yellows and oranges.
Now let’s look at how they communicate a “cool” La Niña in Sept 2010:
Notice how the red/blue color scale is inverted expanded, compared to the one they used this week, with the neutral white being just a notch on the scale. And for some bizarre reason, they decided to include land temperatures with SST…which they didn’t do in the other images above. The result is the planet still is filled with raging red when trying to communicate a cool SST event.
What we have here, is failure to communicate a concept consistently with color. Imagine the confusion if Unisys or other SST product imagers changed their colors with each image release? So far, NOAA NNVL has not been able to present a consistent color scheme for images that will be mass distributed to the public and press. Each visualization has a different color key.
I think NOAA NNVL should standardize on a SST color palette scheme no matter what the ocean conditions are. Next time we have an El Niño event, and these guys image it, let’s make sure we remind them that they need to be consistent.
Of course, this visualization group has been caught playing tricky pix before, so they may not care, see the before and after when WUWT put then on notice:
Next time they image ENSO in color, let’s “help them get their mind right”. Cool, cool hand NOAA.
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Some years ago NBC similarly rejiggered the USA weather temperature coloration scheme to make perfectly normal weather appear menacing. It went into a hiccup in 2010 when the chart’s seething red temperatures failed to accurately convey the chilling record codl outside the building. lol
Well first off, put the pint down……..;-)
“The pint I’m trying to illustrate”
Well, those hurricanes better hurry! How much time do we have left, a few hours?
Isn’t every year an above normal hurricane season?
Climate change affects the color spectrum! It’s worse than we thought!
“The pint I’m trying to illustrate is not about the data, but about the choice of color used to visualize the data.”
Pint should be Point. No need to publish, latitude found it first anyway.
Data visualization is a science. Those that produce these graphics are professionals who use that science. Every aspect is engineered to produce just the right message. If the presentation seems to “color” the impression of the audience, it is because that is exactly what it was intended to do.
This just continues the games played by computer climate modelers when it comes to the Earth’s climate.
Absolutely brilliant post Anthony. ‘Nuff said.
Two pints make one cavort.
But the real measurement issue is that the NOAA NNVL chart is for change in SST for a single month. All the other charts show anomaly from some decadal average. If you compare the red-orange areas west of South America in the second chart to the red areas in the NOAA NNVL chart, you’ll see that La Nina conditions are, indeed, weakening. I doubt if the chart was intended to make any conclusion other than that.
Time for a vacation?
Don’t need no stinkin color to tell me to put another log on the fire.
“So far, NOAA NNVL has <> been able to present a consistent color scheme for images that will be mass distributed to the public and press. Each visualization has a different color key”
jorgekafkazar: “But the real measurement issue is that the NOAA NNVL chart is for change in SST for a single month.”
All the red is 5C change in one month? Holy crap!!!!
It seems you are trying to compare apples and oranges here. SST images with SST change over a period. The NNVL image is showing the CHANGE in SST’s over the period of mid-April to mid-May. White is shown as no change, so you’d expect there to be lots of white on the image (or washed out). I do agree though that images are manipulated by both sides of the AGW issue to try and make their point stronger, but I don’t think this particular image has anything to do with that, and I find it quite useful to as a quick summary of SST CHANGE.
Anyone remember that a state that went Republican in a presidential election were blue and Dem states were red?
Then one year about a decade ago, all the media seemed to swap their colors.
“Notice how the red/blue color scale is inverted, compared to the one they used this week… ”
Huh? I’m not seeing it, inverted how?
Paint job. You can bring on an Ice Age or set the Tropical Pacific on fire with a few clicks of the mouse.
I guess if “waning La Nina” means transitioning from the 2nd strongest La Nina MEI index during the past 60-years in the month of January to the 4th strongest La Nina MEI index in April, then their visualization is quite informative.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html
This visualization is a stupid piece of science — the relative change of SST from April to May means very little when examining snapshots like this.
Bruce says: “All the red is 5C change in one month? Holy crap!!!!
Seems like a lot, doesn’t it? That particular area, a bit west of the bulge in South America, is a crucial one for ENSO. It’s where cool upwelling for La Niña occurs. See the last chart, showing a “cool” La Niña in Sept 2010. Notice the depth of blue in the critical area at that time.
Remember, the first chart is differential, not absolute. That rising water may still be cool, just not as cool as a month or two ago. Cooling in that area raises atmospheric and oceanic densities and (particularly) viscosities, eventually presenting an obstacle possibly stiff enough to divert the tradewinds, triggering El Niño.
Although the depth and extent of color, red:blue, in the last chart is a bit iffy, the NOAA website titled their post: “La Niña Dominates September’s Climate Patterns,” more clearly emphasizing the importance of the bluish regions.
Shouldn’t “able” be “unable” in the following?:
Another trick for making it seem that hurricane activity it “getting worse” is that tropical storms get names now, not just hurricanes. Even storms way out in the ocean that will never make landfall get names! So by the time you hear the weatherperson reporting on tropical storm Ursula or Xavier you might think, wow what a lot of storms! When I was a kid (long time ago) I never had a chance of having a hurricane named after me, because the criteria for earning a name was an actual hurricane expected to make landfall. Now they hand out names like candy just for effect. The last “hurricane Karen” was a tropical storm that briefly whupped up to a Category 1 somewhere off the Lesser Antilles then dissipated at sea without making landfall. I expected a bit more from my namesake.
“Actually, with such a wide range, its not much of a forecast. Last year NOAA took some flack from some folks for putting out such a vague outlook but it looks like they have done it again. When the range of named storms is from 12 to 18 the expectation is anywhere from just slightly above normal at 12 to tying for the fourth highest total of all time at 18 (the 1969 total). Is the NOAA forecast for a slightly above normal season, an active season or a hyperactive season? CSU and TSR put out a specified number, so I think their approach qualifies as a defined forecast.”
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2011&Number=90248&page=&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1
“The April forecasts for the total number of storms for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season have been made by various agencies/individuals and the input is as follows:
CSU 16/9/5
TSR 14/8/4
Accwx 15/8/3
JB 13-15 Named Storms
These forecasts all reflect a narrow range, with the numbers down considerably from last year – primarily due to an outlook for a much cooler Atlantic basin with SSTs about 1C cooler, which is indeed a significant loss of thermal energy. Mid-level upper air temperatures are also lower than last season – globally.
How well do the April seasonal forecasts verify? The answer is ‘not very well at all’. CSU has archived forecasts available back to the 1999 season. In the past 12 seasons they have made 6 good forecasts and 6 bad forecasts – which translates to ‘zero’ skill, i.e., no better than even odds for any given season. The statistics for each season are as follows:
APRIL FORECAST ACTUAL SCORE
1999….14/9/4……….12/8/5……4 (good)
2000….11/7/3……….15/8/3……5 (good)
2001….10/6/2……….15/9/4……10 (bad)
2002….12/7/3……….12/4/2……4 (good)
2003….12/8/3……….16/7/3……5 (good)
2004….14/8/3……….15/9/6……5 (good)
2005….13/7/3……….28/15/7…..27 (poor)
2006….17/9/5……….10/5/2……14 (bad)
2007….17/9/5……….15/6/2……8 (bad)
2008….15/8/4……….16/8/5……2 (excellent)
2009….12/6/2……….9/3/2……..6 (bad)
2010….15/8/4……….19/11/5…..8 (bad)
In the first six years they made 5 good forecasts and one bad forecast and in the next six years they made one good forecast and 5 bad forecasts which again suggest the lack of any refinement in the development of forecast skill for this type of a forecast. Perhaps part of the problem was associated with some changes in forecast methodology in the past few years, or perhaps, more realistically, seasonal forecasts (including my own attempts based primarily on ENSO forecasts) still have a long road ahead before a better reliability is achieved.
The seasonal forecasts were originally developed for ‘Insurance’ purposes – and they are probably still used by various insurance companies for planning potential claims payments. Note that the range of named storm forecasts in the 12-year period has been from 10 to 17 and the actual totals ranged from 9 to 28. Two hyperactive seasons were forecasted but did not verify (2006 & 2007) but one did come close (2007). On the other side of the coin, four hyperactive seasons did occur that were not forecasted in April (2003, 2005, 2008 & 2010).
ED”
http://flhurricane.com/?morenews=1&moreblog=5
Blue (ice) to red (fire) is the most intuitive color scale, but it works best if (in addition to choosing sensible category widths) the author:
a) uses black instead of white for neutral.
b) extends navy blue through royal blue to bright blue (approaching extreme lows).
c) extends red through orange to bright yellow (approaching extreme highs).
What we have here is not a failure to communicate. What we have here is the result of all those “Communication of
Global WarmingClimate Change To The Public” conferences of the past year.jorgekafkazar: “That rising water may still be cool, just not as cool as a month or two ago. ”
Aahhh. So you agree the map is totally misleading. Thanks.
Karen D says:
May 21, 2011 at 2:05 pm
We need a name for this phenomenon. “Storm Creep” comes to mind but I am sure that WUWT commenters can do better.