Bubbleheaded Barking Mad Met Office Modelers

From the organization that can’t forecast its way out of a paper bag, and then can’t bring itself to tell the public about long range forecasts anymore, it has come to this. OK, I’m not against citizen science, but when you start asking the “Chemtrail” watchers to do “science” to help check your models, there’s no hope for you. They apparently have no idea what they are getting themselves into asking for contrail watching. If they thought they were going to catch flak for long range forecast issues, just wait until the Chemtrail people start in on them.

Check out these statements:

Researchers are also urging schoolchildren to blow bubbles to measure wind speed and direction near the ground, to reveal how the built environment affects the wind, as well as watching cloud movement to record wind direction in the sky.

The Open Air Laboratories (Opal) survey also involves the public recording how hot or cold they feel as part of efforts to see how people might cope with temperature changes.

Scientists are also keen to discover what confuses people about climate change so that they can widen public understanding of the topic.

Dr Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office said: “We’re asking people to get outside observing and measuring the weather.

“What they see and record will be useful for checking the systems we use for forecasting weather and predicting climate.”

How hot or cold they feel? Sure that will reduce the “uncertainty” The only thing missing is tea leaves or tarot card readers.

Barking mad they are. Either that or this is simply a propaganda tool to engage children in the idea that they can do something supposedly useful to “change the climate”.

Full story here

Details on the project here: http://www.opalexplorenature.org/climatesurvey

The contrail submission page is here It’s a hoot.

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Patrick Davis

WOW! A month too early!

GPlant

If we thought that the SurfaceStation.org project revealed contamination of the data, what kind of contamination will this data entail?
GPlant

Mike Davis

Maybe the “Folks” at the MET office should spend more time observing the Weather than their SIM Planet Models trying to create a climate scenario!

UKMET’s December three-month forecast to the government, received via FOI today, shows they forecasted the following:
—————-
Issued 22 December 2010
This forecast is for contingency planning purposes only.
It represents the Met Office’s assessment based on our current understanding.
The public should be directed to our monthly outlook and the continually updated 1-
5 day forecast information that can be found on our website
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html and via our
broadcast partners including the BBC
Outlook for January – March 2011
For the period January-March 2011, there is a 15% chance of mild conditions, a 30%
chance of near-average and a 55% chance of cold conditions over northern Europe.
—————-
In the event, the UK was very slightly cooler than 1971-2000 average in January and experienced its ninth warmest February in the last 100 years. Now they want us to count con-trails and watch bubbles float around. And they still want tens of millions of pounds for more supercomputing capability.
Aren’t we Britons lucky?

madrigal

Where do they mention ‘Chemtrails’. Aren’t the Chemtrail watchers you are referring to a bunch of eccentric conspiracy theorists that seem to think that governments and scientists are working together to mislead us and get lots of fat research grants?
Now where have I seen something similar..oh yeah…oops

hunter

the Met may be secretly trying to increase skepticism by showing that in many ways, AGW true belief is not significantly different from believing in UFOs and men in black.

As for the propaganda tool for children that you mention Anthony, you need to look no further than the government sponsored site that went live yesterday after a written announcement in Parliament:
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/the-war-on-co2-updated-2050-pathways-analysis-launched/
Enjoy.

Randy Links

UK taxpayer funds put to good use. How much are they paying these knuckleheads?

Stephen Richards

It’s a propaganda tool. They are just the worst scum bags ever closely followed by their government sponsors.

geronimo

I wonder if they’ve ever considered focussing their attentions on forecasting the weather?
It seems to me that any politician worth his salt whose trying to make cuts in their department would have to ask him/herself why the public were paying for these games.

Pamela Gray

Let me get this straight. The powers that be appear so unconvinced regarding the accuracy of Joe and Suzy Public recording the temperature inside those white boxes, they feel they must “make stuff up” according to their own emails. But apparently counting chem trails and goosebumps will be the gold standard against their own forecasts?

Lex

At least some might question if all of them are actually vapor trails or chemtrails.

John Marshall

OMG! What a load of rubbish.
I am ex-RAF aircrew and when I flew on V-force we were told at what levels we would produce persistent, and non persistent contrails to help to keep a low profile. These were caused by varying humidity in the atmosphere and would vary every day not with climate. So as expected this ‘survey’ will bring meaningless answers especially with untrained observers.

Bob the swiss

I read this in swiss french newspaper too.
How can we call this science ? it’s only propaganda as you wrote. It’s unbelievable.
In the same way in switzerland we pay taxes to feed this kind of people that like to be called : ‘scientists’. The real climate scientists have lot of problems to find money to work correctly … in french we call this : ‘pensée unique’.
Excellent blog Antony.

My word, Sesame Street Meteorology! Booker and/or Delingpole should have a field day with this one.

Scott Covert

JFK whom is secretly a lizard alien was spraying chemicals from a commercial airliner when he crashed it into one of the twin towers. Elvis was in the parking garage below setting demolition charges with Hitler.
I thought the Met always used soap bubbles to track wind speed. It’s the best way to model AGW since the bubbles contain high levels of Anthropogenic CO2. It’s all very organic and harmonius.

James

If the met office issues a forecast with a 55% probability, as stated earlier.
This is just slightly a head of tossing a coin which is a 50/50 probability or 50%…….
Now the Met office has a vast supercomputer, but according to their own probability matrix, you might as well have got a Uk £1 coin. Wrote cold one side, warm the other and tossed it !
its also bloody freezing in the UK at the moment, for march with temps around 3 Degrees in Sheffield, where i live.
Well it was this morning according to my own digital weather station, upon which i’ve now come to rely.
i.e. Look outside, look at said thermometer and decided on the day ahead.
Its better than the met office………

Vince Causey

When I used to hang glide, I often chucked grass up to gauge wind direction and speed. I can see how blowing bubbles would be even better. If this catches on I can just see glider pilots taking out their bubble solutions before climbing aboard. Maybe Heathrow will employ an official Met office licenced bubble blower to send regular wind readings to the tower.
Tower: Land at your discretion. Wind at 140 degrees and 15 bubbles.

Kay

@ madrigal says:
March 4, 2011 at 6:08 am
Where do they mention ‘Chemtrails’. Aren’t the Chemtrail watchers you are referring to a bunch of eccentric conspiracy theorists that seem to think that governments and scientists are working together to mislead us and get lots of fat research grants?
Now where have I seen something similar..oh yeah…oops”
It’s not chemtrails, it’s contrails. It says so right in the article:
“The research, led by scientists at the Met Office and the Royal Meteorological Society, will look at various aspects of how humans are affecting the climate, and how people may adapt to rising temperatures.
People are being asked to look out for aeroplane trails, or contrails, which may be contributing to climate change and which can only be recorded by the human eye. “

Olen

Early lessons have a lasting impact. They are obviously attempting to salvage the fraud through the next generation,
The formative years are important to the development of children and they intend to use that to further their agenda. Having children participate in a theory not proven may seem nutty but they know very well what they are doing. It is tantamount to corrupting their development. And it is at least a disgusting tactic.
Science projects in elementary school have to be based on proven science otherwise it is recreation or propaganda.

Kip Hansen

I believe that Anthony suspects that the contrail reporting will be overrun by the ‘chemtrail conspiracy theorists’ — who might very well see this as the perfect opportunity to report all those suspicious looking top-secret-chemical-laden faux-contrails sprayed by certain unnamed government agencies for very scary purposes.

Russ Hatch

I love this part, Dr Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office said: “We’re asking people to get outside observing and measuring the weather.” Is this so he can plug the results into a computer?

Cold Englishman

Absolutely and totally bloody mad. Cold I may be, but also ashamed to be an Englishman. Right out of the University of “You Couldn’t Make It Up”.
Robert Fitzroy, founder of the Met Office, and Charles Darwin’s Captain of the Beagle, was a brilliant surveyor and mapped much of the Cape Horn, Magellan Straits, Southern Chile area, in the most meticulous and precise way.
He must be spinning in his grave at the sheer idiocy of these folk.
One hears the sound of tumbrils in the distance!

Kip Hansen

On the survey site for youngsters:

Activity 4 – how the weather affects us
Climate change is predicted to result in milder winters and hotter summers across the UK, but how will this affect us?

Milder winters? Haven’t they learned anything from experience?

SandyInDerby

Autonomous Mind says:
March 4, 2011 at 6:11 am
As for the propaganda tool for children that you mention Anthony, you need to look no further than the government sponsored site that went live yesterday after a written announcement in Parliament:
The online game is at: http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/ where you can have minutes of fun.

derise

I must call the wife tonight and have her break out the Ouiji board so the kids can help the Met model climate forcasts. Can’t be any worse that what they are doing now. Heck have thousands of kids set up a Ouiji network! Does anyone have the number for the Met office? I think I’m on to something here.

Gendeau

I think that the bubbles are an ‘advanced’ form of anthro. carbon capture.
The same kind of thinking that have us subsidising windmills that are sitting idle in this cold weather because there’s no wind…
Sack them, sack them all. Then we could start rebuilding the met office to be competent. Although god knows what use they’ll be in the real world.

Robin Darnell

They had a slot on Radio 4 couple of morning ago – Dr Mark McCarthy was eulogising on this subject and encouraging us all to get involved. He said that contrails can cause a slight warming – is the correct?
Even the presenter sounded a bit sceptical about the possible usefulness/accuracy of the data gathered and the subjectivity of people – Didn’t appear to put Dr McCarthy off at all we just need lots of people sending guff in.

Well, they do think that the failure of AGW to take hold is down to poor marketing. I’ll await the release of cute little climate change toys for the kiddies. I imagine the Mike Mann doll will sell like hotcakes.

This has nothing to do with science and everything to do with brain washing. It is straight out of the “how to con the public” handbook.
The principle is simple: you get the public to participate in “obtaining the result”, the effect has nothing to do with a better “result”, but that those people who are involved in the exercise will be very ready to accept the answer it gives, no matter how much the whole process is a fraud which was always going to get the same result.
Remember the screen saver models to calculate global warming …. result! Most people who ran the screen saver then believed in global warming. Remember all those competitions to spot the “early flowers” … snap … everyone who entered is now firmly convinced that they really did spot early flowers (despite the fact they just looked for flowers coming out at the same time … it’s just they went out to find them)
And this is just the same con. No doubt they have already written the press release of: “the study shows overwhelming evidence of global warming – this time proved by citizen (non) science”.
Fool the people once, shame on you, fool the people twice, shame on us!

Alexander K

The Met Office and the UK government are a continual source of wonder, amazement and mpre than a little worry about their collective sanity. They make me laugh, too, but in a rueful this-can’t-be true sort of way. My back-yard max-min thermometer tells me the dasytime max near Heathrow is usually around 40% lower than the Met Office forecast, while night min temp is also usually around 40% lower than forecast. I say ‘usually’ advisedly as just occasionally the Met Office forecast is very nearly accurate!
Any bubbles my grandchildren have blown in the same back yard are driven in wildly unpredictable directions by strange wind eddies, over fences and around buildings etc. which usually has a very casual relationship with actual wind direction.

Steeptown

Unless this corruption is stopped, we in the UK are all doomed. Thank God I’m no longer young.

Paul

Bubble-blowing?
If you have kids (or grandkids) of a certain age, then you will understand what I mean when I label this “SpongeBob Science”. While they’re at it, they might as well measure biodiversity whilst out jellyfishing.

Joe Horner

Scientists are also keen to discover what confuses people about climate change so that they can widen public understanding of the topic.
Dear Dr Jenkins et al,
Over the past 15 months or so I’ve become increasingly confused about how anything said by “The Team” can be taken at face value.
As a former (mild) believer in AGW I’ve found the almost continuous revelations of what, to me as a humble BSc, appear to be undeniable abuses of the scientific process not only unsavoury but also seriously detrimental to their credibility in everything from predicting future climate to telling me whether the sun is likely to rise tomorrow.
Please can your group lessen my confusion by educomunicating me in the finer points of why climate science should operate on entirely different principles to any other scientific field?
Yours confuzzledly,
JH

madrigal

Kay- My point exactly, the article refers to contrails whilst Anthony decides for whatever reason, though we can have a reasonable guess, to put in ‘Chemtrails’ in his intro.

Rhoda R

If contrails are only visible to the human eye, what is that picture on the right showing?

Tain

Are these the same people who complain that they do not have enough time to respond to FOIA inquiries? And yet, they apparently have time to collate data from bubble-blowing kids and contrail watchers?
In the words of the Great Fezzini: “Inconceivable!”

James Ibbotson

Also this is the equivalent of standing on a golf t, and chucking some wood into the air to try and gauge speed / direction.
Actually maybe i should do that when i’m on the 1st of my local course and send the results to the met office…….

1DandyTroll

Well at least it might be fun looking at the poor crazed hippie crowd running around trying to blow, what they can afford in this green economy, snot bubbles.
Just keep yer distance or risk getting splattered with yuck from bursting green bubbles.
/Sarc . . . err, I’m not too sure actually.

higley7

My fraternity had a cat called “Trails” as he had a white-tipped tail which left “trails” in the air for the brothers who were taking mood-altering drugs.
“Oh, WOOWWW, man! Check out those trails!”
When it’s subzero outside, soap bubbles freeze really quickly. When they pop, they deflate and drift as a large film to the ground. It’s really cool!

maz2

[Snip . . Off Topic . . post to Tips & Notes please, as it seems very interesting]

Gopher

I’m not sure about the bubble part – but the contrail idea is rather neat. Given enough participants – and a degree of calibration from 3 or 4 expert sites – the fractional amount of cirriform cloud produced by contrails over the UK could be determined quite accurately. This can be a tough issue to forecast on some days – knocking one or two degrees off the maximum temperature on a particular day can, for example, significantly affect the available energy for thunderstorms.
In Australia there is a storm spotter network that reports in, on a volunteer basis, severe storm information to the weather bureau. Community particiaption in weather reporting can make a difference.

Wiglaf

I submitted 10 “adjusted” contrail data points. Sure, I made them up and I don’t even live in the UK, but, hey, I’m a scientist! It’s more about what I believe, and not what the real facts are. Funny that the “survey” doesn’t even verify IP location in general.

Holbrook

I have already posted comments on the site concerned pointing out that in the week following 9/11 there were no planes in the skies over the USA but instead of the temperature dropping as the AGW’s would expect what happened was just the opposite.
With more sunlight getting through the USA was warmer.

JDN

A trend seems to be emerging: they’re going from talking about ozone depletion by man-made chemicals to global warming by etc. to man-made aerosols causing climate degradation and cancer (probably). They’re going to ramp up the aerosol talk along with the Glory satellite (oops!) to change the subject. It’s the standard modern left-wing tactic, sorry to say.

HFC

Our (UK) govnmt is sadly stuffed with greenies. I wrote Huhne (the energy change minister) pointing out that windmills don’t turn when the wind drops and forwarded the news item about the Netherlands ceasing installation of the things and invited his comments on those matters specifically. Might as well have saved myself the effort. Here is the reply I recieved; do read it, it shows just how far British politicians have their heads up their and their paid advisers’ fundaments.
Dear Mr Cxxxx
Thank you for your email of 18 February to Chris Huhne, attaching various articles on wind power. I have been asked to reply.
General Statement of Policy on Onshore Wind
The Government is committed to the development of wind energy in the UK. As an island nation, we have outstanding wind resources and wind energy is an indigenous source of energy which is needed to meet our renewable energy and climate change goals. The wind industry can be a key player in creating the investment, exports and jobs we need to bring back economic prosperity, and the UK is already a world leader in offshore wind.
The Coalition Programme made clear this Government’s commitment to Renewable Energy. The Government also want communities and individuals to benefit from the increase in renewable energy, including wind power, and to own a stake in our collective low carbon future. This is why the Government committed in the Coalition Programme for Government to encouraging more community-owned renewable energy and allowing communities that host renewable energy projects to keep the additional business rates they generate.
Contribution of Wind Energy to Climate Change and Energy Security Goals
The Government believes that climate change is one of the most serious threats we face; the two major energy challenges that the UK has to tackle are carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that contribute to climate change and the need to deliver secure, affordable energy supplies. The UK has the best wind opportunities in Europe, with the potential to supply a significant portion of our energy needs. Wind farm generation grew by nearly a third in 2009 against the previous year. Onshore wind generation rose by 31% over the same period.
The UK is one of a small number of countries to have reached 5 gigawatts (GW) of wind power (onshore and offshore). We are also number one in the world for offshore wind power, overtaking Denmark in October 2008.
Moving to renewables will enable us to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by over 750 million tonnes between now and 2030. Onshore wind could provide around 10% of the electricity we consume in 2020.
Contribution of Wind Energy to Renewable Energy Goals
Wind will be a key component in meeting the UK’s 2020 target for energy from renewable sources and onshore wind could deliver around 15% of the required total. However, the precise breakdown between technologies will depend on how investors respond to the incentives put in place. [1]Renewable generating technologies more widely could provide around 30% of our electricity (compared to around 6.5% today), with some two-thirds of this coming from onshore and offshore wind.
The Office for Renewable Energy Deployment (ORED) was set up in October 2008 in order to catalyse deployment of renewable energy to deliver the UK’s 2020 target. More information about ORED is available from:
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/energy_mix/renewable/ored/ored.aspx
I hope this is helpful.
Yours sincerely,
John McCulley
DECC Correspondence Team

Dave Springer

“the public is being asked to watch for contrails which can only be recorded by the human eye”
Huh? Cameras are more sensitive and can even see in frequencies which the human eye cannot perceive. Morever, eyes don’t “record”.
Where do they find the people who write these things?

Stephen Brown

Ha! Go to the “My 2050” site and have a play. Once you have ‘built’ lots of nuclear power plants and demolished all the windmills by using the slider bars, and have got under the magical 20% bar, you get to another page. Here you can state how happy you’d be to live in a world such as the one you have just created, amongst other amusing questions. When asked why I’d arrived at the 2050 site I had some more (very clean) fun!
Try it and see! It’s bound to cause as much confusion as whirling bubbles!

David

I much prefer the Weather Stone, which you hang from your fence..
Stone dry – sunny weather.
Stone wet – raining.
Stone covered in white stuff – snow.
Stone swinging – windy.
Can’t see stone – foggy.
Far more reliable than bubbles…

Obviously they have heard about the “Jet Stream” and that it may influence the tropospheric weather pattern so now they want to get to the “bottom of it” by studying what comes out of the rear end of jet planes. – Well, anybody who believes in the Hockey Stick ……….–Yes we’re doomed mr. Steeptown. We’re all doomed!