From the blog autonomous mind, a cold ill wind blows from Britain. At least this time, FOI requests weren’t quashed like they were with CRU. Below are excerpts. The photocopy of the email from the FOI request is telling.
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autonomous mind writes:
A look at the information makes clear there is nowhere left for the Met Office to hide. The Met Office has been caught ‘cold’ lying about its winter forecast in a disgraceful attempt to salvage its reputation. Its claim that it forecast the cold start to the winter lays in tatters thanks to an exchange of emails between the department and the Cabinet Office.
As a result the Met Office is completely discredited. Also utterly discredited is the BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who on the Met Office’s behalf used a column in the Radio Times (later carried in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail) to state that:
In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.
It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.
Harrabin went on to say in his piece that:
Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret. “The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.
The email exchange in the screenshot below proves this is a lie. The Cabinet Office civil servant (bottom message) confirms the weather outlook supplied by the Met Office earlier that day is what the government will use in its ‘Forward Look’. The Met Office employee (top message) agrees with it.
(note- I rotated the original photocopy image to make it more readable)
The all important sentence is the first. ‘The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter’. The Met Office knew this was the case when it sent Harrabin scurrying off to spin its lie that the Met Office ‘did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October‘. The briefing to the Cabinet Office contains no such warning – and vindicates the parliamentary answer given by Francis Maude when questioned about the forecast the government received from the Met Office.
What is worse is that the Met Office knew this, yet with its claim tried to place responsibility for the lack of prepareness for an extremely cold start to the winter on government inaction. Harrabin added to this by saying he had put in a FOI to the government (referenced in this post) to discover what they were told, the insinuation being it was the government that had something to hide. This is very dangerous ground that leans towards the possibility of the Met Office and a BBC reporter engaging in a joint effort to undermine the government’s credibility.
This leads us to ask a serious question that must be answered: How is it possible that Roger Harrabin could claim the Met Office line he was retailing was the ‘truth’ with such certainty?
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Read the entire report at autonomous mind and also at Katabasis and give them traffic and props for seeing this through. In case anyone is wondering, the address in the document links here:
Organisation: Cabinet Office
Address: 3rd Floor, Kirkland House, 22 Whitehall
Town: London
County: Inner London Borough
Region: Greater London
Country: England
Post Code: SW1A 2WH
Tel: 0207 276 6226
Fax: 0207 276 6271
For those new to the issue, some background here:
MetOffGate – the questions begin
Also, if you did not note it in the article link, this PDF of the FOI request is instructive.
h/t to Indur Goklany
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UPDATE: In comments, we have this –
Steve McIntyre says:
I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.
That may very well be true, but it leaves Mr. Harrabin in the uncomfortable position of defending sources or defending himself. I’ve sent him a private communication offering WUWT with no caveats should he wish to use it a sa platform to explain his side of the story. – Anthony
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@AminoAcids:
Yes, I do. It’s called manipulating the market.
Not to mention making a very large number of employees hostages (via their pensions) to the AGW theory.
Because I am keen that the court of public opinion will reach critical mass over global warming.
This is an excellent point: ultimately, that critical mass of disgust will, long term, prove far more beneficial to civilisation as a whole than any tinkering government may try to placate the public with.
Large sections of the public are learning some hard lessons about trust and power. This is long overdue IMO and will, I firmly believe, lead to some permanent and positive shifts regarding not just the responsibilities of the powerful but also those of the citizen. Ironic that nullius in verba is becoming the people’s watchword (albeit in plain English).
Mike. says:
January 29, 2011 at 11:38 am
… Aside from that has anyone heard of a return to very low temperatures this coming February, and as such gritters have been told to restock. It could be hearsay, but I have been talking to a local councillor, and was offered that info.
Mike, a friend heard the same story, i.e. very cold and blizzards are in the pipeline. This from subcontractors who the local council have to call in to help clear the snow from the roads (as they have had had to do the last two winters). Highland Perthshire. I have not heard of any forecast from the Met Office which confirms this. But Peirs Corbyn did forecast (back in early January) a very severe end to January – which has not happened – maybe the event is still on the cards, but a week or so later than he initially calculated. It may be that councils are wising up and sourcing non Met Office forecasts, unofficially at least – our local council ran out of salt in mid January, and many roads (covered with snow) went un-treated for 2 or 3 days – which they got away without the press noticing. I suspect there’s more than a few senior people in roads departments in Scotland who no longer believe anything the Met Office says, about short term weather events or long term global bollocks.
Mr. McIntyre has faith but no evidence.
Hardly a good position for an auditor.
The all important sentence is the first. ‘The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter’.
———
Seems to be a bit of quote cherrypicking here to further the intent of discrediting the Met Office.
There is is the more important 70 percent cold vs 60 percent warm sentences.
Here is a plausible scenario. There are a bunch of indicators being used by a group of people using their professional judgement. They don’t necessarily agree with each other. They produce a consensus wording for the report. The gov talks to one guy, the reporter to another. The result is different shades of intrepretation with the reporter also adding a different slant.
Decode: B+B=C
Where: A=1, B=2, C=3 etc
Result: 2+2=3 or whaterver their political master say.
Now that Met Office prevarications are exploding like a fleet of Hindenburg dirigibles, it’s time to triple the bonus incentives to overwrought officials who have suffered such obloquy in Warmists’ Cause. As “unearned increments,” such monies may yet come in handy for posting their bail bonds.
I have heard tell of an organization called Common Purpose; an informal alliance of like minded journos who agreed to use their positions of influence in major MSM outlets to guide and promote the AGW agenda.
Is this a real organization?
It would appear that Gore’s shouted abuse of poor Tony worked just fine. It made a Believer of him!
LT;
Uh-huh. And what, pray tell, is the entire structure and organization of the MET (or any other technical advisory body) designed to do if not provide clear and useful advice? Pournelle’s Iron Law (the paper-pushers always take over the asylum) has rendered the MET useless.
@Charles nelson:
I have heard tell of an organization called Common Purpose; an informal alliance of like minded journos who agreed to use their positions of influence in major MSM outlets to guide and promote the AGW agenda.
Is this a real organization?
Yes, it is real (though not an alliance of journalists as such) and is run by one Julia Middleton, who is also Deputy Chair of the Media Standards Trust Board. Her catchphrase is: leading beyond authority. Some believe it to be a rather sinister organisation, a kind of fifth column for making sure those in important positions stay on message on the vital issues of the day, whether they be the EU or AGW.
Some further information:
http://cpexposed.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Middleton
My personal view when it comes to the MSM and AGW is that much of the bias can be put down to self-interest, laziness and a simple, tragic lack of genuine investigative journalism. Much – but of course not all. It is an agenda decades in the making, after all.
At some point you Europeans will realize that having a state-controlled media like the BBC only leads to dishonest reporting. I would think the seemingly endless list of false reporting over environmental issues and climategate would be more than enough for you Brits to ditch the BBC, but I guess a majority of the UK is so hard left that the leftist tripe posing as news on the BBC is considered acceptable, in fact, desirable.
The problem is that Roger didn’t say, “according to my sources….” or “the Met Office claims….”
On the contrary, Roger stated, “The truth is it did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October.”
See the problem? Roger stated this fact as definitive truth. I mean, he literally used the word, “truth.” He can’t blame his source for that.
A former UEA scientist is now leading the Royal Society, after the terrible collaboration of his predecessor with the UEA administration during the climategate inquiries.
The Met Office is lying towards the public, the press and the government, but both press and government don’t care.
WikiLeaks cables reveal how US manipulated climate accord. Embassy dispatches show America used spying, threats and promises of aid to get support for Copenhagen accord.
Democracy has gone.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/article-of-faith.html
It has become enormously important for the Met Office to protect is own claim that it in some way predicted the severe weather at the beginning of the winter, so much so that it has become an article of faith that it was correct. To cement the lie, and with the help of the BBC’s Roger Harrabin, the Met Office has been attempting to re-write history.
http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2011/01/green-business.html
Some time ago, I noted that Roger Harrabin seemed to be offering his services for hire as a speaker at greenie events, and was seemingly paid amounts up to £10,000 and more for his appearances. I can’t confirm this, of course, because I haven’t seen his financial records, but I believe it is a reasonable inference to make; he’s registered with a fee-making agency as a “performing artiste” (no less) and I don’t imagine that he is there purely for the good of his health. If he doesn’t accept payment, I will be happy to put the record straight, though he hasn’t responded to my invite to do so.
……..
I’ve been digging a little bit deeper in this patch, and it doesn’t stop there. Our Mr Harrabin is also listed as a speaker with an outfit called Green Business Events (GBE). This is a body which frightens me to the core, and – I submit – shows the extent to which greenie madness has taken hold of the establishment, with activists persuading each other on a regular basis that they are on a righteous crusade to save the world.
Cancel that record for Minnesota. The books now say that the temperature was 33 degrees on Saturday. I was there and never saw the temps get close to 30, but I do know that the official book is often warmer than what we read on weather.com.
The problem with the MET office not being able to make an accurate seasonal forecast is of course due to CO2. Evidently it not only pollutes the air but also clouds the mind.
Jimbo says:
January 29, 2011 at 11:56 am
You’ve responded to a completely separate point. My point is that Harrabin has integrity since he challenged Gore on air about some of the more extreme claims in his book. This put the AGW cause at risk – a cause close to Harrabin’s heart.
How many on here would be prepared to challenge inaccuracies from the sceptic side in a live interview.
Could the attempt to ridicule the government about weather (and, by extension, climate) have anything to do with the PM being a Conservative?
John Finn says:
My point is that Harrabin has integrity since he challenged Gore on air about some of the more extreme claims in his book. This put the AGW cause at risk – a cause close to Harrabin’s heart.
How many on here would be prepared to challenge inaccuracies from the sceptic side in a live interview.
The BBC have a legal duty to be impartial. That is not a “give a nod” and ask the odd question once in a blue moon. It is to treat all assertions equally sceptical.
And yes … I do challenge BS if on see it on the sceptic side … we are winning this debate by being open and honest, and we’ve got nothing to loose by challenging anyone who proposes bad science.
LazyTeenager says:
January 29, 2011 at 3:30 pm
The all important sentence is the first. ‘The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter’.
———
Seems to be a bit of quote cherrypicking here to further the intent of discrediting the Met Office.
===========
It would only be cherrypicking if the rest of the report went on to say the opposite. If another paragraph of the report, for example, says ‘There actually IS a clear signal for a severe start to winter,’ then that would have been cherrypicking. But how can you seriously accuse the author of cherrypicking because he selected a sentence that is competely in agreement with the rest of the report?
We know what most of the AGW Cult have to gain from promoting their cause against true scientific dialogue, but can anyone tell me what the BBC gain from promoting AGW to the extent of withholding genuine scientific information to the contrary view. and even lying to the public on the subject?
Someone may have already made this point and I apologise if I am repeating it but I didn’t see it.
Roger Harrabin with the help of the MSM managed to advance the idea that the MET office told the Government that they did in fact predict a colder than average winter and the Government did not prepare the public for this and that it is all the Governments fault that we were so ill prepared and nothing to do with the MET office.
Katabasis via his FOI request has now proved that this is at best Roger Harrabin was naive in his reporting and at worst was complicit in helping the MET office spread untruths.
It is very unlikely that the MSM will pick up on the excellent detective work of Katabasis and the only people who will be aware of this are people who read the blogs of Libertarian leaning bloggers and sceptic sites such as this one which means that a lot of people who only read the MSM or do not frequent the aforememtioned blogs will be left with the impression that has been left by the initial reporting by Roger Harrabin.
Andy Mayhew says:
January 29, 2011 at 4:49 am:
I’m not sure whether to take this seriously or not or whether I’ve entirely misread it but, Andy, if it’s serious, I expect you’re tired after your recent trip from Alternate Universe #M190/E37-a/T090 and, in your exhaustion, have forgotten that our cosmos is a complete reverse flip of yours. You’ll get used to it, don’t worry.
FrancicChalk says:
January 29, 2011 at 8:23 pm:
“At some point you Europeans will realize that having a state-controlled media like the BBC only leads to dishonest reporting.”
Oh, I think we realised that a long time ago. But it’s not just the BBC, it’s a worldwide problem. This may have been posted above but it bears repeating:
http://www.climategate.com/follow-the-money-bbc-exposed-in-biggest-climate-racket-on-planet
Very few ‘average’ Britons, who know little about science or climate, will come here for their information but they *will get their views formed by the people they most listen to. Delingpole tells us about what the ‘Celebrity DJ’ Chris Evans and his mates have to say on the topic. It’s not really surprising that the BBC line is probably accepted by large numbers of unquestioning and uninterested folk
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100073695/what-bbc-radio-2s-chris-evans-thinks-about-global-warming/
Make of it what you will.