From the blog autonomous mind, a cold ill wind blows from Britain. At least this time, FOI requests weren’t quashed like they were with CRU. Below are excerpts. The photocopy of the email from the FOI request is telling.
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autonomous mind writes:
A look at the information makes clear there is nowhere left for the Met Office to hide. The Met Office has been caught ‘cold’ lying about its winter forecast in a disgraceful attempt to salvage its reputation. Its claim that it forecast the cold start to the winter lays in tatters thanks to an exchange of emails between the department and the Cabinet Office.
As a result the Met Office is completely discredited. Also utterly discredited is the BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who on the Met Office’s behalf used a column in the Radio Times (later carried in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail) to state that:
In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.
It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.
Harrabin went on to say in his piece that:
Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret. “The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.
The email exchange in the screenshot below proves this is a lie. The Cabinet Office civil servant (bottom message) confirms the weather outlook supplied by the Met Office earlier that day is what the government will use in its ‘Forward Look’. The Met Office employee (top message) agrees with it.
(note- I rotated the original photocopy image to make it more readable)
The all important sentence is the first. ‘The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter’. The Met Office knew this was the case when it sent Harrabin scurrying off to spin its lie that the Met Office ‘did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October‘. The briefing to the Cabinet Office contains no such warning – and vindicates the parliamentary answer given by Francis Maude when questioned about the forecast the government received from the Met Office.
What is worse is that the Met Office knew this, yet with its claim tried to place responsibility for the lack of prepareness for an extremely cold start to the winter on government inaction. Harrabin added to this by saying he had put in a FOI to the government (referenced in this post) to discover what they were told, the insinuation being it was the government that had something to hide. This is very dangerous ground that leans towards the possibility of the Met Office and a BBC reporter engaging in a joint effort to undermine the government’s credibility.
This leads us to ask a serious question that must be answered: How is it possible that Roger Harrabin could claim the Met Office line he was retailing was the ‘truth’ with such certainty?
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Read the entire report at autonomous mind and also at Katabasis and give them traffic and props for seeing this through. In case anyone is wondering, the address in the document links here:
Organisation: Cabinet Office
Address: 3rd Floor, Kirkland House, 22 Whitehall
Town: London
County: Inner London Borough
Region: Greater London
Country: England
Post Code: SW1A 2WH
Tel: 0207 276 6226
Fax: 0207 276 6271
For those new to the issue, some background here:
MetOffGate – the questions begin
Also, if you did not note it in the article link, this PDF of the FOI request is instructive.
h/t to Indur Goklany
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UPDATE: In comments, we have this –
Steve McIntyre says:
I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.
That may very well be true, but it leaves Mr. Harrabin in the uncomfortable position of defending sources or defending himself. I’ve sent him a private communication offering WUWT with no caveats should he wish to use it a sa platform to explain his side of the story. – Anthony
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I need to remind everyone that people died in December. Due to the extreme weather businesses lost billions and millions of travellers faced severe inconvenience. Had the government been warned that “Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter” then perhaps deaths and inconvenience would have been reduced.
Criminal investigations should be launched immediately and the guilty need to spend some time in Wormwood Scrubs [UK jail].
It’s interesting to hear what Peter Sissons has to say about the BBC’s stance on Global warming.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1350206/BBC-propaganda-machine-climate-change-says-Peter-Sissons.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Steve McIntyre:
I accept that Roger was misled by his sources, and I accept that he believed what he wrote.
I propose that Roger’s failure was, yet again, a lack of journalistic inquisitiveness. This is why sceptical bloggers (autonomous mind for example) repeatedly usurp AGW-faithful journalists, and why blogs like Anthony’s (and Steve’s, and Bishop Hill’s and so on..) are popularly supplanting the BBC and other MSM as primary sources of investigative journalism and critical analysis.
Harabin’s lie can be quantified by IPCC measures:
“The Met Office warned the Government that the start of this winter would be “exceptionally cold” but did not immediately inform the public.
It advised Cabinet Office planners in October that Britain was LIKELY to be in for freezing conditions.”
IPCC definition:
likely – more than 60%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6324029.stm
Neither did the forecast have more than 60% probability for a cold start – just 40% -, nor did the forecast use the term “exceptionally cold”.
Steve McIntyre says: January 29, 2011 at 12:22 am
“I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.”
Steve I had some correspondence with a weather forecaster and they were very unhappy the way the organisation had changed since Robert Napier. Apparently good old fashioned forecasting had been given the shove in favour of accountants and marketeers.
When we had the snow storm in Scotland. The day before I took the tarpaulin off a roof I was working on because the BBC forecast was for fog the next day.
There is no question that I looked at the forecast and no question that the heavy snow was not forecast during the previous working day. So, I was horrified when some Met Office Spokesman came on TV with not the slightest hint of apology and actually told us that they had forecast the snow.
Worse still, the BBC did nothing to dig deeper … none of the obvious questions like When, how much, etc.
The BBC and Met Office have clearly been colluding on this. Harrabin may honestly believe he was reporting truthfully, but when you come from a group-think mentality like the BBC who are so sycophantic to the Met Office, you have to actively work to avoid being biased. So, unless Harrabin went out of his way to be impartial, the practical result is that he was highly economical with the truth.
And though I neither support the Tories nor the SNP admin … both governments got unfairly criticised for failings which ultimate stem from bad forecasts by the Met Office.
Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill) wrote to the Quarmby (Government advisory) team to ask if they’d been given a copy of the Met Office winter forecast, and received a reply just over a week ago: http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/1/21/a-copy-of-that-cold-winter-forecast.html
Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11
This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.
Temperature
3 in 10 chance of a mild start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a cold start
Precipitation
3 in 10 chance of a wet start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a dry start
Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.
Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.
So the media/blogosphere get caught out yet again.
They lied to us when they made up the false story about the MetO predicting a mild winter and they lied to us when they implied that the MetO had warned the government about the severe start we had to winter.
The only people coming out of this well are the MetO who have told the truth all along!
Katabasis says:
January 29, 2011 at 2:57 am
@Jack:
“Though to be honest, I’m not happy about Autonomous Mind’s redacting the names of sender and recipient from the emails”
It is the correct and honest thing to do. Not every reader on the web is a kind generous individual.
Simon, that I think is perfectly fair. In fact, I’ve been thinking that Roger Harrabin should do an interview on Bishop Hill to put his point of view on this. This would go some way to right the wrong, where a state-funded broadcaster speaks with apparent authority and this is used by other state-funded entities to distribute misinformation. Andrew has been scrupulously polite throughout the many years of such goings-on. His contribution to the good of the UK, for little gain, should be recognised as such, by those who should have known much, much better.
Do we know if Harrabin has received his FOI reply? If so is he keeping quiet about it.
Perhaps someone should FOI the Beeb to discover his role in this story.
We are about to discover what kind of man Roger Harrabin is.
May I draw your attention to the date of this e-mail exchange: October 25th 2010
At that time, there were already parts of Scotland covered in snow.
It is at least odd of the met Office to tell the Government that the coming winter will be normal, perhaps a bit colder, perhaps not …
I miss the BBC’s Blog of Bloom. It was somewhat sceptical of AGW and poked fun at it sometimes. You can still read the archives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/climatechange/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/climatechange/strange_but_true/
Anything is possible says:
January 28, 2011 at 9:36 pm
“The Germans had no problem forecasting the cold five weeks in advance, and making proper preparations for it :”
That was one of the private weather forecasters. The public one, DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst, didn’t forecast strong cold. Nevertheless, communities were prepared; last winter road salt ran out and you had to pay fortunes for a ton, so they all stocked up in advance this year. Also, we will always get some blizzards or cold spells sometime in winter because of arctic winds coming over the baltic sea, so you have to be prepared.
If Harabin is not a liar, then he is a useful idiot for the Met Office.
frank verismo says:
January 28, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Chairman of the Met Office: Robert Napier
Chairman of the Carbon Disclosure Project ($64 trillion under management): Robert Napier.
Any questions?
==========
none, thats sooo clear!
@ur momisugly KGuy,
That’s an extraordinary account by Peter Sissons, many thanks. I urge everyone to read it. It’s obvious what Sissons’ ‘crime’ was: he decided to find out about climate change on his own initiative, rather than to unthinkingly accept the BBC’s dogma. If only there were more journalists like him….
I just fired off this email to the Daily Telegraph, though the chances that they will print it are about the same that the Met Office will produce an accurate quarterly forecast….
*******************************************************************
As reported by the Telegraph and elsewhere, the BBC’s Roger Harrabin
wrote:” In October the forecaster privately warned the Government –
with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an
extremely cold winter. It kept the prediction secret, however, after
facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.”
In other words, Harrabin blames the government for not taking action
after the Met Office had warned them of an extremely cold winter.
A recent Freedom of Information release shows that this statement is
untrue, and may even have been designed to discredit the government. In
an email dated 25th October, a civil servant in the Cabinet Office
wrote: “The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to
January is showing no clear signals for the winter….” In addition, the
Met Office web site showed a temperature map which indicated fairly mild
conditions for the coming quarter. In other words, the Met Office super
computer failed to predict the Arctic conditions that were just a few
weeks away. A bit odd, as they claim they can forecast the climate 50
years in the future.
It seems clear that the country and the government were unprepared for
the harsh conditions because, once again, the Met Office failed,
probably because their computer has warming programmed in, and is almost
incapable of predicting harsh winter conditions. The lack of warning may
even have contributed to the terrible growth figures just released. That
Harrabin and the BBC tried to claim that the Met Office really had
predicted harsh conditions is a disgrace. There must be a serious
investigation into how this happened. The government should have no
problem with this, as the FOI disclosures make it clear they were
actually the victims of incompetence, a welcome change for them.
Steve McIntyre,
“I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.”
Steve, Roger Harrabin has effectively accused the Government on Radio and through National newspapers of ignoring a warning given for a severe start to the winter. This is a very serious matter. If he was misled, if he has made this public accusation on no more than a nod from the Met Office without even bothering to check the email, then he is totally incompetent and a disgrace to his profession. He should resign.
Even their definitions of mild, normal, and cold have so much overlap that the 30/30/40 prediction is even more meaningless. Departures from long term average…
30% mild = -0.1 to +1.3 C
30% aver = -0.5 to +0.6 C
30% cold = -1.5 to +0.4 C
So if it was 0.0 C, they could claim mild, average, or cold…LOL. Of course they would claim mild winter when it was all said and done.
Not knowing, but my guess is that the UK was way below the cold lower limit since it has been claimed to be the coldest in thermometer history, and 1976 in the report shows a temp of -1.6C departure from the long term average.
correction , should have been 40% for cold
John Finn,
“On one occasion, in an interview with Al Gore, he challenged Gore about some of the assertions made in An Inconvenient Truth.”
So, he’s not as completely off the wall as Al Gore and challenged some of the ludicrous claims made. What does that make him – some kind of balanced sceptic? The fact is, Harrabin was happy to run with the met office brief, even to the point of hanging the government. There are only two possibilites – he was duped because he didn’t bother to research the claim, in which speaks of prejudice, or he did see the email and decided to lie. Journalists like that – dishonest or incompetent and biased – are no use to the public they serve.
FOI release gave me a good chuckle.
After describing the temperature forecast, the email released says the “rainfall amounts are less certain”. How can you get less certain than the temperature forcasted.
Come on people, that is too funny.
It’s becoming more apparent that the BBC & MET office are more concerned about protect their pensions investments and jobs then serving the people who pay for them to exist.
The esteemed journalist John Pilger aired a programme on ITV a few weeks back on the embedded journalists at the BBC and other news oranisations when reporting on conflicts/wars,he reckons they are “on message” with what the goverment wants reported, it now appears that certain journalists at the BBC, and the MET office employees are embedded within the “climate change community” as its been said before it seems to be a case of follow the money to see why things are as they are!
Perhaps Anthony or Steve M could ask if Roger Harribin would like to post on here or ClimateAudit to help clear things up?
as for other thinking this will make into the MSM… no chance maybe daily mail and the express newpapers will do a bit BBC will not touch with a barge pole.
see the link to the Peter Sission story
So someone CAN be misled by their sources. Interesting. Perhaps Steve McIntyre could be as understanding about someone else who has also been misled by his sources.
Am I the only one who detects a small coach load of Harbinger supporters turning up here, to re-write some history?
He is right in the centre of the AGW cult, regardless of any protestations to the contrary. Take a look at his BBC articles and blogs. Someone show me some content which suggests a neutral , un-biased journalist looking to find the truth?
And Steve McI – you are brilliant with numbers but way too trusting when judging characters, or motivation.
If Harbinger survives this, it will confirm everything that has been suggested about BBC bias