From the blog autonomous mind, a cold ill wind blows from Britain. At least this time, FOI requests weren’t quashed like they were with CRU. Below are excerpts. The photocopy of the email from the FOI request is telling.
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autonomous mind writes:
A look at the information makes clear there is nowhere left for the Met Office to hide. The Met Office has been caught ‘cold’ lying about its winter forecast in a disgraceful attempt to salvage its reputation. Its claim that it forecast the cold start to the winter lays in tatters thanks to an exchange of emails between the department and the Cabinet Office.
As a result the Met Office is completely discredited. Also utterly discredited is the BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who on the Met Office’s behalf used a column in the Radio Times (later carried in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail) to state that:
In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.
It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.
Harrabin went on to say in his piece that:
Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret. “The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.
The email exchange in the screenshot below proves this is a lie. The Cabinet Office civil servant (bottom message) confirms the weather outlook supplied by the Met Office earlier that day is what the government will use in its ‘Forward Look’. The Met Office employee (top message) agrees with it.
(note- I rotated the original photocopy image to make it more readable)
The all important sentence is the first. ‘The Met Office seasonal outlook for the period November to January is showing no clear signals for the winter’. The Met Office knew this was the case when it sent Harrabin scurrying off to spin its lie that the Met Office ‘did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October‘. The briefing to the Cabinet Office contains no such warning – and vindicates the parliamentary answer given by Francis Maude when questioned about the forecast the government received from the Met Office.
What is worse is that the Met Office knew this, yet with its claim tried to place responsibility for the lack of prepareness for an extremely cold start to the winter on government inaction. Harrabin added to this by saying he had put in a FOI to the government (referenced in this post) to discover what they were told, the insinuation being it was the government that had something to hide. This is very dangerous ground that leans towards the possibility of the Met Office and a BBC reporter engaging in a joint effort to undermine the government’s credibility.
This leads us to ask a serious question that must be answered: How is it possible that Roger Harrabin could claim the Met Office line he was retailing was the ‘truth’ with such certainty?
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Read the entire report at autonomous mind and also at Katabasis and give them traffic and props for seeing this through. In case anyone is wondering, the address in the document links here:
Organisation: Cabinet Office
Address: 3rd Floor, Kirkland House, 22 Whitehall
Town: London
County: Inner London Borough
Region: Greater London
Country: England
Post Code: SW1A 2WH
Tel: 0207 276 6226
Fax: 0207 276 6271
For those new to the issue, some background here:
MetOffGate – the questions begin
Also, if you did not note it in the article link, this PDF of the FOI request is instructive.
h/t to Indur Goklany
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UPDATE: In comments, we have this –
Steve McIntyre says:
I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.
That may very well be true, but it leaves Mr. Harrabin in the uncomfortable position of defending sources or defending himself. I’ve sent him a private communication offering WUWT with no caveats should he wish to use it a sa platform to explain his side of the story. – Anthony
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Steve McIntyre says:
January 29, 2011 at 12:22 am
I’ve met Roger Harrabin and am completely confident that he behaved with total integrity in this matter. I am sure that he was misled by his sources.
But Harribin is in the UK and has seen all the forecasts I see, the MET office has never given firm forecasts over the last 10 years they always issue the 30/30/40 type forecast with small variations some of which add up to more than 100%, Harribin knows they don’t do firm forecasts and should have asked to see the forecast before publishing hearsay.
Bad journalism.
(Steve McIntyre at 12:22am)
First of all, the best liars are convincing, and appear to be honest and open. Once they’ve learned how to feign sincerity, everything else falls into place. Are you seriously suggesting that, on the basis of one meeting (or 10 for that matter), you are willing to vouch for some one’s integrity? (It makes me wonder if the referenced post is a sock puppet.)
Second: To the rest of us, Harrabin’s claims on behalf of the MET and their ‘secret’ prediction were dubious to begin with, and Harrabin well knew the implications of what he was writing. It hung the politicians and vindicated the MET while giving uncritical credence to the excuse that the MET now keeps seasonal forecasts ‘secret’ (at least below cabinet level) because they got it wrong in the past and didn’t want to further damage their credibility. (You know what? My mother’s psychic has the same policy, which is why I manage my mother’s affairs.)
The “stupid, or misled” excuse is no longer working for the simple reason that people like Harrabin are none of those things. They no longer deserve the benefit of any doubt and you should not grant it to them. Though to be honest, I’m not happy about Autonomous Mind’s redacting the names of sender and recipient from the emails, though I can understand the potential reasons for it.
Nevertheless, it seems that Autonomous Mind has more credence than Harrabin, the BBC and the MET. Enough is enough. People pushing the warmist propaganda should be fired and subject to charges in criminal court and subject to civil action. They are costing taxpayers billions and want to force us to spend trillions on the basis of lies. We are being hurt too much by these people and they should be made to pay for their idiocy.
McIntyre certainly has integrity. Can you imagine: AGW alarmist’s skin saved by “denier” McIntyre, because no one believes alarmists anymore, but everyone believes McIntyre. The irony.
Back in December I made a spoof Met office forecast-however reading their stuff above I think I will be applying for a job with them. This was carried over at the excellent Digging in the Clay
http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/12/24/a-guide-to-metspeak/#comment-713
EXCLUSIVE!! As you know I live close to the Met Office and through a mole am able to reveal the Met office forecast for the first 6 months of 2011!
January; The weather will be mostly around normal, but with some periods greater than normal with some below normality. All in all, at times the weather will be surprising whilst at others it won’t be. It will be colder than average in those areas of the country where it isnt warmer than average.
February; True to this months characteristics it will be on average somewhat cool except for those periods that are somewhat mild. Cloud will appear from time to time and some may be persistent or not, so sunshine might or might not be affected
March; Winds will be of a surprising degree of strength in certain areas-those periods greater than normal will be windy, whilst those less than normal will be calm. Our new service for Wind turbine operators shows that whatever the weather you will be raking in the subsidies. Wives of deputy Prime Ministers will do particularly well.
April; True to form there will be sunshine and Showers. The showers at times being greater than the sunshine, meaning that all in all one or the other will be somewhat different from average values. Different parts of the country will experience different weather at various times during the month. Temperatures may occur anywhere.
May. Wind. Rain. Cold. Warmth. ALL of these will appear at some time, causing this month to have outbreaks of averageness, but with some variation between greater than and less than the average of normal.
June. Hotter than average. Although some areas of the country will be colder than average. Some parts will be just average. There will be periods of wind in some areas that are greater than the periods of wind in others.
The outlook for wind turbine operators remains very bright with subsidies reaching a peak towards the end of the month.
tonyb
I’d like to hear from Roger Harrabin direct on this matter.
This from today’s bbc article on climate adaptation:
“Network Rail raises concerns about keeping passengers cool in heatwaves, ensuring that rail lines do not buckle in high temperatures and preventing embankments collapsing as a result of flooding.
One of its most vulnerable stretches of track is on the south Devon coast between Dawlish and Teignmouth where storms have often seen waves break over the line.
Network Rail says the sea level at this point has risen 30cm since 1840 and is projected to rise by a further 70cm by 2050 and 1.45m by 2100. “
Now I thought the sea level was rising at c. 3mm/yr, so by 2050 that would be 12cm, not 70.
Ryan N. Maue says:
January 28, 2011 at 9:09 pm
MetOffice is going private anyways…
That is a distinct possibility, do you have a source?
‘The Met Office – Weather and climate change’ (MOWCC) informed us that they would no longer be providing the public with three month forecasts as their survey had shown them this was not required by the public. Has anyone seen this questionnaire, its questions, report and findings? Or is this too confined to the bottom draw, along with selected raw temperature data sets?
If Harrabin was truthful in what he wrote and said, rather than writing to defend his rapidly diminishing ‘green at all costs’ reputation then the government should sack the Met. Office Chairman, Richard Napier. without delay on the basis that he doesn’t have any control over the body that he heads or the useless information they put out to the public. Information that has lead to such huge costs to the government, industry and the public generally. We need an open minded Chairman of this very important government body, one who does not arrive in post with a preconcieved notion that AGW is happening and that his position in the organisation is there to promote that concept at all costs. It could also be the start for the government to shed its damaging ‘green’ credentials and start governing the country to deal with the real problems we have and not those based on unfounded disputed and corrupted science.
Steve, Martin:
I got to know Roger pretty well in the days I was living close to his family in NW London, including one memorable encounter at the Gospel Oak polling station in his shorts, as the Beeb sent him out at the last moment to canvas voters – the 1997 general election I guess that was. I agree about his basic integrity. I think speculation about his motives is premature, Martin. We know the Met Office is to blame, because it didn’t correct his reports. That’s all we know for sure. But, as I said above, I’d advise Roger to move fast to put his case.
Neither hot nor cold is the new warming.
Proof, if proof were needed, that the BBC is a left wing organization yet they claim that they give balanced reports on climate and everything else.
They now do not reply to complaints of poor reporting on any climate matter neither have they complied with instructions to include ‘sceptic views’ on climate in their reporting.
Harrabin’s reports are getting more extreme as the science points to other drivers of climate than CO2.
Jit – Devon and the rest of the south coast is sinking as Scotland continues to rebound after its glaciers melted.
What I find funny about the emailed Met Office response is this shocking statement:
Now it’s a risk to not have to suffer from un-gritted roads, power failures etc. Mind boggling stuff! The Met Office are stuck in a Warmist mindset. This means they have to lie and spin for “mild” no matter what their data tells them.
More failure……
Before everybody piles on I think Roger Harrabin should be allowed the chance to respond.
Cold_is_the_new_hot says: January 28, 2011 at 8:58 pm
“I hope fellow skeptics arent going to overplay things and make mountains over molehills.”
Brings to mind the mountains of snow we had – and still have in one place I spotted – around Glasgow. The molehill of ice on the roads that brought Scotland to a standstill, and wouldn’t you believe it: “the Met Office forecast it” … according to the Met Office.
Forecasting is not a precise art and everyone accepts that, but lying about how good your forecast when you get your forecasts wrong is just not on. They’ve now been caught doing it regarding yearly global warming forecasts, the severe winter and they did it in Scotland, because I read their forecast at the end of the day before and there was nothing about heavy snow in Scotland.
@ur momisuglyAnthony – many thanks for the coverage. Katabasis and others deserve a lot of credit for their work.
@ur momisugly TheTempestSpark – I’m sorry you chose to unsubscribe from AM because you feel my condemnation of terrorism in NI, criticism of a newspaper witch hunt of a foolish 19-yr-old girl, marriage to an incredible Irish woman and dividing my time between homes in England and NI makes me anti Irish. Perhaps you might email me if you would like to discuss?
@ur momisuglySteve McIntyre – I’ve not met Roger, I’ve only exchanged emails with him over a couple of years. However the Jo Abbess incident and his undeniably partial reporting on climate change suggest to me that he could have been working to an agenda.
@ur momisuglyJack – the redactions in the document screenshot were not done by Katabasis (or me), they were done by the department issuing the FOI response.
@Jack:
“Though to be honest, I’m not happy about Autonomous Mind’s redacting the names of sender and recipient from the emails”
The emails were already redacted when I received them.
.
A perfect example of 1984 doublespeak. George Orwell must be shedding a tear in appreciation. This is a perfect forecast – if you can get a wapping great grant for making it.
So, the Met Office forecast some wetdry with a little hotcold, resulting in the possibility of some rainsnow. Surprisingly enough, they were spot on with this forecast!! Brilliant!!
This is a good example of a standard fortune-telling scam. It is like Gypsy Lill eyeing up a tall elderly lady customer wearing no rings, and saying: “Your future sees some health issues, and finances will be stretched; but I see a tall silver-haired man entering your life and days of laughter and happiness”. Works every time.
The keys to successful fortune telling:
Tell ’em what they want to hear, so they go away happy.
Cover all the possibilities, so they cannot say you were wrong.
Make it as nebulous as possible, so you can argue the point ad-infinitum.
Charge them more than they expect – expensive is always equated with quality.
.
I don’t know Roger Harrabin personally but the sentiments expressed by Steve McIntyre and others rings true. Harrabin certainly believes in AGW, but seems prepared to question some of the more extreme claims. On one occasion, in an interview with Al Gore, he challenged Gore about some of the assertions made in An Inconvenient Truth. The following is Harrabin’s comment about what took place later.
Lucy Skywalker says:
January 29, 2011 at 1:37 am
I’d like to hear from Roger Harrabin direct on this matter.
Waste of time. He is either a lier, stupid, gullible, blinded by his religion, devious or a genuinely really nice guy who hates to see anyone hurt.
Take your choice. Either way his response will be worthless.
Unfortunately SM is too nice of a guy. This just feeds into the scam I’m afraid SM has to learn that he is being duped again and again ie take the climategate inquiries. This is not to detract that SM is the MAIN person who has actually done something to show the scam.. irony LOL
If Ayn Rand was writing ‘Atlas Shrugged’ today, she would have real names to put on the goodies and baddies.
If this blog is accurate about the conflicting positions of Messrs Dunscombe and Napier and the investments of the BBC pension fund and other commercial enterprises of the carbon type (and I have nothing to say it is wrong), then the situation is rather drastic.
I have already ranted how lax the current generation became in allowing such potential conflict of interest appointments. How active are you younger people going to be in redressing the anomalies? You can live without this type of structure.
So less conspiracy and more MET Office and the leftist BBC trying to push their agenda forward while defending the MET? Kind of dissapointing for me personaly, would have hoped for the conservatives to get a bloody nose over this. (would have prefered this to their way of handling the economy)
Still, I hope the media pick up on this. No chance of it at the Beeb, but perhaps ITV, Ch4, 5, Sky, etc will. This is big news – another big player in the AGW swindle is caught lying, and acting like thugs.
Oh come on, you just know they’re going to cling to the phrase “a slightly increased risk of a cold and wintry start” as proof they forecast it correctly