The Future of U.S. Weather Prediction Will Be Decided During the Next Month

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog During the next few weeks, leadership in NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will make…

JLI First Forecasts

Image Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns…

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from…

Like 'the pause' in surface temperatures, 'the slump' in solar activity continues

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has…

CET cooling in line with solar model prediction

Yesterday, WUWT carried the headline: Coldest Spring In England Since 1891.  This essay offers what could be an explanation for it. Judge for yourself. – Anthony Guest essay by David…

Tropical lizards safe from climate change forced extinction

Some good news from Dartmouth College Climate change may have little impact on tropical lizards Dartmouth study contradicts predictions of widespread extinction A new Dartmouth College study finds human-caused climate…

In retrospect, we 'predicted' global warming would slow

Reader Markx writes: The title says it all here: “…Retrospective prediction…” indeed. How could a researcher keep a straight face and write such a title? (Maybe a subversive element at…

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank…

An animated analysis of the IPCC AR5 graph shows 'IPCC analysis methodology and computer models are seriously flawed'

This post made me think of this poem, The Arrow and the Song. The arrows are the forecasts, and the song is the IPCC report – Anthony I shot an arrow…

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced…

NASA/Hathaway's updated solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years

…the predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years (Updated 2012/05/01) From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum…

The Met Office COPing response

Willis Eschenbach notes that the COP predictions from the Met Office, which I highlighted here, are all over the road. He writes: In the most recent one, they didn’t make…

Day of reckoning draws nearer for IPCC

According to Dr. Clive Best, A key prediction from the 2007 IPCC WG1 report fails statistical tests. AR4 figure for long term predictions for each scenario Abstract: Global temperatures measured…

The World won’t stop having climate cycles just because they are inconvenient.

Guest post by David Archibald The most skillful climatologist the World has seen was Hubert Lamb (1913 – 1997). He can be credited with making the first prediction of the…

Pielke Senior on Climate Science Misconceptions #3

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions – Post #3 On Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Predictions Of Changes In Decadal And Longer Statistics Of Extreme Weather This…

Why are we so bad at long range weather forecasting?

By WUWT regular “justthefacts” In researching the use of tidal forces in long range weather forecasting, I came across an interesting August 30th, 2010 Associated Press/ MSNBC article based on…

NASA's Hathaway revises the sunspot prediction down again

From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page: Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013.…

NASA Sun Spot Number predictions revised again

UPDATE: see my animation of NASA solar forecasts since 2004 below. WUWT Commenter J Gary Fox writes: The solar cycle 24 predicted sunspot maximum has been reduced again – predicted…