If you have a possible missing variable problem, the solution is to add more arbitrary adjustments to your model?
Category: Climate Models
Study: A Switch to Hydrogen Could Cause “Non-negligible” Global Warming
Leaks from Hydrogen storage and pipelines will apparently slow down the destruction of atmospheric methane.
Climate Science—Settled Until It’s Not
Meanwhile, every few years, another critical factor—like MeSH—emerges, requiring significant recalibration, yet we’re continuously reassured of both the past accuracy and the future reliability of these models, as if such…
Did Fewer Clouds Contribute to This Year’s Global Warming?
Some scientists are at a loss to explain the 2024 heat bump, 0.2C above what models predicted.
German Scientists Using Generative AI to Hallucinate Fake Climate Records
Taking “model output is data” to the next level…
Why Numerical Climate Models Fail at Long-term Climate Prediction
There has been a great deal of “model bashing” here and elsewhere in the blogs whenever climate model predictions are mentioned. This essay is a very long effort to cool…
“We should have better answers by now”: Broken Climate Models Can’t even Explain the Recent Warm Bump
If climate models can’t even get heat spikes right, what use are they?
Role of Humans in the Global Water Cycle and Impacts on Climate Change
…the impact of direct anthropogenic emissions of water vapor has not been seriously considered.
Technical University Munich: “Why we can’t predict the timing of climate tipping points”
According to Technical University Munich, poor quality climate data and oversimplified model assumptions make it impossible to pinpoint significant future climate events.
CERES team presentations at the DDP conference in El Paso, TX, July 2024
In this post, we will provide links to the slides and videos of all three presentations (courtesy of the DDP). Videos for the other presentations at this conference (and many…
GCMs Cannot Predict Climate
Well, now that there is a paper that states explicitly that GCMs can’t predict climate, and explains why, will it make any difference?
The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models
…we might move closer to developing climate models that can truly reflect the intricacies of the Earth’s climate system.
Modeling The Mysteries
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, every time I go to look at the climate models, I come away more confused. And today is no exception. I decided to take…
CMIP6 Runs Running Wild
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See update at end] Well, for my usual unfathomable reasons and motives, I decided to take a look at individual model runs from the Computer…
Evaluating The Model Projections
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach (Image above shows the Cray Ecoplex NOAA GAEA supercomputer, which can generate improbable future climate scenarios far faster than we simple humans …) Someone on…
Arctic sea ice–air interactions weaken El Niño–Southern Oscillation
… although many other factors may also play a role in the real world.
Traffic Lights and Roundabouts
in the style of {van gogh, picasso, chagall, norman rockwell, Edvard Munch, Duchamp, russian propaganda posters, 60’s psychedelic posters}
Climate Model Bias 7: WGIII
By Andy May In the previous report, part 6 of this series, I discussed the bias in AR6 WGII. The major bias in the report stemmed from ignoring the benefits…
Climate Model Bias 6: WGII
The IPCC AR6 WGII report examines the impact of climate change but ignores the benefits of warming and additional CO2.
Climate Model Bias 5: Storminess
By Andy May In part 4 the impact of convection and atmospheric circulation on climate was discussed. When circulation patterns change, they change the speed and efficiency of the transport…
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