Essay by Eric Worrall
“… EU climate regulations forced energy companies to shut down refining capacity in anticipation of demand destruction that has yet to materialize. …”
Goldman Sachs Sees Diesel Refining Margins Soaring to $63 a Barrel
By Irina Slav – Aug 31, 2026, 1:45 AM CDT
Refiners are set to reap stronger profits on the global diesel shortage, Goldman Sachs has said, revising its earlier profit forecast to double the total profits that refining companies would make from the squeeze.
“Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a note, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally,” they added
Global diesel stocks are running low due to refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia. According to Goldman’s commodity team, refinery outages are currently 60% higher than the seasonal average, and the tightness in diesel will extend into next year.
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In Europe, the situation is additionally complicated by a shortage of refineries, as EU climate regulations forced energy companies to shut down refining capacity in anticipation of demand destruction that has yet to materialize.
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-Diesel-Refining-Margins-Soaring-to-63-a-Barrel.html
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The Iran war and Ukraine conflict might have interrupted Western access to Middle Eastern and Russian refining capacity, but our lack of resilience to handle such an interruption, the lack of Western refinery capacity, is a self inflicted failure.
Fuel shortages couldn’t have come at a worse time. Diesel prices are strongly tied to food prices, or in the worst cases, food availability.
A friend who runs a farm in NSW has told me that lots of people he knows cut back on planting because with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices, they couldn’t see a path to making a profit. How many other farmers throughout the world are making similar choices?
President Trump’s efforts to revive the USA’s fossil fuel industry may help to buffer the USA from the worst of the coming diesel supply shock, except in places like California which are still doing everything in their power to wreck their own economies with European style climate regulations. But Europe, whose economies are already stretched to the brink by the Ukraine war, skyrocketing government debt and crippling regulations on farming and industry, they could be in for some real hardship.
Naturally all this will be blamed on the coming “super El-Nino” – you can already see the green establishment laying the groundwork for a climate narrative interpretation of any Fall food shortages. But make no mistake, much of the increase in food prices which a spike in diesel prices could trigger will be because the irresponsible climate idiocy our politicians destroyed the economic viability of refining oil in Western countries.
Hopefully the coming delivery cost crisis caused by Dems will be restricted to the west coast blue states. Though bad spillover effects of “who could have known” policy made famous by Sen. Ed Markey and his career of bad energy policy can never be discounted.
The demand destruction is here and thanks to trumps helpless flailing in the middle east it’s accelerating.
Electric Trucks Have Moved From Impossible to Inevitable
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Electric-Trucks-Have-Moved-From-Impossible-to-Inevitable.html
Couldn’t be a better time for the rollback of fuel economy standards…
So go buy one.
Electric is a joke.
I was talking to my farmer friend just yesterday, he had been driving 8 hours to rush agricultural chemicals to his property before the rain, and still had another 3 hours to go. Applying those chemicals was time critical. There is a supply crunch – everyone wants the same chemicals- so he had to drive a long way, outside the incoming weather system, to find what he needed.
When he got home, he would have worked his tractor 12 hours continuously to apply those chemicals in time to matter.
Can you imagine him doing all that time sensitive work with battery equipment? I can’t.
Great, demand destruction won’t happen because your farmer friend will keep demand up all on his own.
Electric Trucks, to be viable, would need battery packs mounted under the trailers for better range when towing 70,000 lbs of cargo (Used to be 80,000 lbs in the diesel variety but the extra 10,000 lbs of batteries removes capacity.)
Ah so you think my friend is the only farmer who has to push himself and his equipment that hard during critical periods, that all the other farmers would be fine with equipment which only works 2 hours per day. Got it.
MUR lives in a fantasy world, Eric, and has repeatedly proven it. This is one of the better examples.
It really is amazing how loserName is convinced that whatever the party tells him is not only true, but has already happened.
Electric trucks in Australia.. maybe as very local light-weight delivery trucks, like the old milk carts, but even then we would need to build more dispatchable electricity supply.
Just like the USA, Australia has very long distances.. Electric trucks need not apply !
Not for golf carts. Electric works great for golf carts. And slot cars – if they still exist.
Did you know that countries all around the world are expanding their oil production.
(or do you continue to ignore facts and reality)
The final outcome will be a much larger supply of oil and gas, in much more diverse locations.
https://www.gep.com/blog/mind/south-americas-offshore-oil-boom
https://energyinafrica.com/insights/oil-and-gas-projects-africa/
https://angolanminingoilandgas.com/africas-energy-sector-surges-in-2025-with-major-oil-and-gas-discoveries/
https://www.moore-global.com/news/africas-41-billion-upstream-oil-and-gas-investment-surge-in-2026/
https://www.el-balad.com/17006073
(Norway’s massive expansion.)
https://energyinafrica.com/insights/nigeria-libya-race-oil-producer/
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/malaysia-oil-and-gas-market
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/qld-s-taroom-trough-emerges-as-australia-s-new-oil-frontier-20260210-p5o11p
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Argentinas-Shale-Boom-Is-Rewriting-South-Americas-Energy-Map.html
https://panamericanworld.com/en/magazine/homepage-sections/guyanas-oil-boom-growth-records-and-challenges/
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Brazils-Oil-Production-Keeps-Growing.html
Over 28.75,million medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) units were sold worldwide in 2025.(520,000 of those being zero emission). and China (where it’s mandated, not free market driven) accounted for nearly 90% of sales, but the European market also accelerated: zero-emission trucks rose from roughly 2.5% to 4.5% of new sales.
Wow, that’s nearly a 100% increase from “Nearly Nothing” to “Next to Nothing”
Yeah, that was my point. The total amount of “zero emission” vehicles over all are darn near an accounting error. The upper part of my post above was pulled from myusername’s link. I need to start putting (-s) behind my posts when applicable. 😉
Oh I saw the SARC I just couldn’t resist the SNARK.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/09/04/outstanding-u-s-jobs-report-stuns-expectations-162000-job-gains-with-all-upward-revisions/
Over 1.4billion ICEVs worldwide.
IEA say EV car sales worldwide were around 20m in 2025. EV trucks would be far far lower than that. Long time before EVs of any kind become inevitable.
IEA ‘Global EV Outlook 2026’ (May 2026)
Seriously, this has gone on far too long — a half-year (since 28 of February), or even half-decade (since Covidistan shutdown) … the malfeasance of the rogue Bear Republic. Don’t wait until November; act now under expanded DPA* authority!
To restore to full production of Diesel & Aviation Fuels, first reclaim all the Ports & Refineries — at San Pedro, at Oakland, and in the Monterrey & Mission Bays.
Even if it requires a blockade of the Sacramento, as much as any Caribbean or Middle-East waterway.
———
How stupid and ignorant are Gov. Gavin et al? Firetrucks, garbage trucks, the heavy machinery used in agriculture and heavy transport vehicles will aways large amounts of diesel fuel. Agriculture in CA is a really big industry and uses lots diesel, if there is a shortage of diesel food prices are going to soars.
Newscum is a CCP agent as are most dems.
So you have a CCP agent as governor and a russian agent as president. Must be a fun ride.
Proof Trump is a “Russian Agent”?
We Say So…isn’t proof!
Note … Farcebook, Instaslam and TikThot aren’t valid sources and O.F. models aren’t Pundits.
Though they are more credible than CNN and MSDNC!
I like how you don’t ask for sources on the CCP claim.
It truly is sad how poor your reading comprehension is.
That’s because I already know he is… I live in California!
I believe the Russians prefer democrats, because they seem to accommodate Russian priorities. Like when the State Department approved the sale of 20% of the USA’s uranium reserves to Russia on Hillary Clinton’s watch.
Especially members of the D.S.A.
Of course there is no evidence that Trump is a Russian agent, but then that’s what the party has told him to believe, that’s what he believes.
If Trump is a Russian agent…
… why is Trump funding Ukraine and not Russia 😉
Most of the help came from Biden. All trump did was scale back and roll out the red carpet for putin
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10308/
No Russian agent.
Without US help Ukraine would have never been able to hit a single Russian ship,let alone the attack on Putin in Valdaj.
As I already said at the beginning of the Russian collusion.
Israel would never allow another country to own and control its most precious assett.
Newsome as CCP asset has a bit more meat to it.
When Xi visited California he cleaned up all the streets Xi was driving along.
Which indicates that he is closer than necessary to Xi
and that the homeless and decay crisis is deliberate to demoralize the population and that can be solved if he really wanted.- but the homeless crisis is needed for a similar psychological effect like the lockdown.
True, but either he still owes putin, has a hard-on for dictators or simply hates the west. Otherwise his actions don’t make sense.
Is that you Simon?
Always is a very long time when we can already see the first signs of change
Top 10 electric mining tools (and companies that use them)
https://miningdigital.com/articles/top-10-electric-mining-tools-and-companies-that-use-them
Vienna Fire Department now operates two electrically powered fire engines
https://www.rosenbauer.com/en/news/news-hub/specialist-press/2023/06/berufsfeuerwehr-wien-nun-mit-zwei-elektrisch-angetriebenen-basisloeschfahrzeugen-im-einsatz
A complete range of electric trucks for garbage collection and waste management
https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/stories/2025/oct/volvo-trucks-electric-garbage-truck-range.html
Electric Motors Gain Ground as Farms Shift Toward Efficient Equipmen
https://www.agrolatam.com/usa/machine/electric-motors-gain-ground-as-farms-shift-toward-efficient-equipment-1646/
Those electric mining tools are limited in coverage area (practically fixed in place when in use as they “Plug In” with a long cable
Those Garbage Trucks also will have greater damage capacity to road surfaces as a Diesel Truck weight 10-15 tone while a Battery Equivalent weighs 28 tons … twice the weight!
The EV Truck can haul an additional 16 tons max and takes 2.3 hrs to recharge.
the Diesel Truck can haul an additional 25 tons max and refuels in 10 minutes.
So it takes more than 3 Electric Garbage Trucks to do the same work as 2 Diesel Trucks.
Did you here about the electric fire truck, that didn’t have enough diesel fuel storage to run its water pumps. 😉
I may just start deleting your comments after 5/day.
Give Aussie Bnice2000 a break. The economy of Oz has been devastated by Premier Anthony A. and Canberra Climate Cartel’s draconian climate agenda and the goal of Net Zero by 2050. He comes here for relief of his worries.
Will you do that for Beaten , fungle.. etc
Or will you continue to protect them from reality by gross, fetish type censorship.
You are making a fool of yourself.
You sure know how to sweet talk me.
Do you need someone to sweet talk you.. diddums. !
I thought it was going to be a great joke about catching fire and being unable to put itself out.
“Vienna Fire Department now operates two electrically powered fire engines”? And what precisely is the “it is equipped with a 225 kW Energy Backup System (EBU” oh according to AI it is powered by diesel. I guess they don’t want the pumps dying on them.
‘Goldman Sachs Sees Diesel Refining Margins Soaring to $63 a Barrel’
Another bold forecast by Goldman given that the crack spread was already around $100 / bbl a few days ago.
Predictions about the future are hard.
Predictions about the past are much easier.
Goldman Sachs: “Now pay me my massive consulting fee!”
The focus on increasingly costly diesel naturally falls on primary producers and building & infrastructure contractors.
These are the “last point of impact” for such costs, which are almost immediately added to end-consumer prices of ‘retail’ purchases.
But let’s not forget that diesel is required in substantial quantities to enable
of such “cheapest energy evah” projects as wind & solar farms.
So, “just stop oil” and other greenies, be careful of what you may be cheering for.
Unavailability of diesel will quickly put paid to your revered wind & solar fantasies.
California is running out of refineries – and running out of time
Allowing foreign-flagged tankers to move transportation fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast to West Coast Ports is only a band aid for California’s humongous demands for transportation fuels.
Co-authored by Ronald Stein, and Mike Ariza
Published August 24, 2026, at America Out Loud NEWS
https://www.americaoutloud.news/california-is-running-out-of-refineries-and-running-out-of-time/
side note: I’m half way thru a holiday having travelled from WA to Vic. My small jerry can of petrol, for my portable gennie, developed a tiny leak, so I tried to give the 5L away while in a caravan park. It took 18 consecutive approaches to find someone with a petrol car, despite selectively not approaching obvious 4WD diesel vehicles anyway. I didn’t see any EVs and the charge station in the park was never occupied either.
Horses for courses I guess.
You could have turned the jerry can upside down, placing the hole at the top.
And on a more serious note. Why Vic when you could have chosen so many nicer, (less left), places?
I live in a small town full of tradies and contractors.. great if you want something done 😉
Diesel 4x4s everywhere! 🙂
Huge gas source now supplying in Northern Australia
Fracked gas from Beetaloo Basin flowing to Northern Territory power grid as of today – ABC News
Future development will allow piping to Darwin for export and to supply the eastern states
Time for another Diesel Tractor Protest. Lay siege to every access road to all government buildings in every EU member nation. Block all public parking garages within 1K of said government buildings so officials have to walk a great distance to get to work.
I prefer the simple deed of denying all trucks access to government buildings and facilities that are diesel powered, (this could be extended to include petrol too for Bowen).
See how long they last without all the ‘shiny’ things they covet.
Blocking government offices to prevent access would have no impact whatsoever here in the UK.
The majority of so called government workers(sic) actually now ‘work’ from home and never go into the office. That is how crazy it has become in woke focused UK. When you think the madness can not go on for much longer, the governing Labour Party (or the unions to call it correctly) appoint Mayor Andy Burnham as the new PM because the Starmer wasn’t giving away enough!
Andy’s big idea to fix the dormant economy is to allow more Mayors be elected and hand them revenue raising authority.
I am not making this up. Those who still have transferable wealth are leaving the UK, for obvious reasons.
Well then, block their homes!
Brisbane to procure 630 new buses..
ALL DIESEL !! 🙂
Queensland announces plan to procure 630 new buses
More than 20 countries surpass 50% electric city bus sales as e-buses head for 60% of global market by 2030
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/bloomberg-nef-evo-2026-report-electric-buses/
Fancy pipedream indeed. Hope you enjoy the higher fares due to diesel prices. Sadly I don’t expect you to use PT anyways 🙁
Norway found that its Chinese made electric buses contained equipment that could be used as a ‘kill switch’
Chinese are not the only ones making electric buses.
But the ones they make are spectacular
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rlgcow4aAkg
They make electric Cars and Trucks too
They also make E Bikes and scooters
“A friend who runs a farm in NSW has told me that lots of people he knows cut back on planting because with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices, they couldn’t see a path to making a profit. “
No doubt the usual suspects will declare that any resulting drop in agricultural production to be a direct result of “climate change”.
New expansion of Taroom Trough in Qld should soon be feeding Brisbane’s oil refinery..
I have also heard rumours of a new refinery being built near the supply, linking in with thermal coal also found in large amounts in the region.
Omega discovers major extension in Taroom Trough onshore Australia | Oil & Gas Journal
Yes, things could be tight for a while because the “great green idiocy” over the last couple of decades, but with the right political will, there is a way out of it.
Yes there is. It requires men and women of action.
Absolutely.
Even when they know their energy policies are wrong and know the war against fossil fuel is driven by false beliefs, the Left wing side of the political divide continue doing what is most damaging to society stability.
What are we to conclude from their zealous vindictiveness? What is at the end of the road they demand everyone must walk? It has taken centuries of engineering evolution and scientific development of new opportunities to reach the secure stable state we enjoy in the majority of the developed world, today. No matter. The crazies peddling socialist dogma claiming equality for all and care must dominate policy rather than sustainability must continue. The loss of a safe secure society is happening. Clearly, they know the end result of their ideology is chaos and anarchy. It that truly what they want?
It’s all about axioms, what they believe to be unquestionably true.
If you believe alarmist climate science is unquestionably true, it doesn’t matter what short term harm climate investment does to the economy, because the long term harm – human extinction – is infinitely greater than people losing their job.
The one silver lining from the Covid pandemic is it broke a lot of people’s faith in government science. I wish there was no Covid, nothing was worth all that suffering. I think we would have won anyway. But the collapse in blind faith caused by all the lies promoted during the pandemic accelerated our path to victory.
Yup, Refineries are the nastiest places on the planet. Yet, they produce clean fuels for the rest of us by removing metals, sulfur, salt, and other crap by using distillation, acids, organic chain breakers, etc. They vaporize gasoline and treat it, one of the most dangerous activities on the planet. Only nuclear breeder reactors and sulfuric acid plants are more dangerous. Oh wait, refineries use sulfuric acid to regenerate cleaning mixtures and equipment.
The impending collapse of California’s transportation fuel infrastructure
The 4th largest economy in the world is becoming a National Security Risk for America.
https://www.americaoutloud.news/the-impending-collapse-of-californias-transportation-fuel-infrastructure/
Any price to pay as long as it doesn’t line Gavin Newsom’s couture pockets [famous last words].